Egyptian / Middle East Political Unrest
Each quarter of this class, Introduction to Geography, one never knows what might
happen or develop around the world that significantly interacts with the core
content of this course. The events in Egypt this week are a perfect example. On
January 5th, when this course began, who could have predicted a political upheaval
in Egypt that previously had been stable for the past thirty years?
That stability, however, was in part due to the dictatorial heavy hand of Hosni
Mubarak, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt and his suppressive internal
police force. The forces of change that are erupting this week are due to a number of
factors, but central among them are the economic downturn, widespread
unemployment, no jobs for young people coming into the workforce, pent-up anger
and frustration, and the recent successful overthrow of the Tunisian government
that had similar dictatorial government and economic conditions.
How do These Events Relate To This Course?
So, what do the current events transpiring in Egypt this week have to do with the
core concepts and ideas of this course? Here are a few:
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Political and economic impacts
Communication across space – speed and quantity of contacts
Political and economic Impacts
1. Political de-stabilization in Egypt that might allow Al-Qaida an opportunity
to infiltrate the power structure and de-stabilize the nation so that no central
government can function, the economy and investments plunge even further
downward, and violence becomes the norm. In addition to economic
downturn and dysfunctional government and state control, political destabilization in Egypt could cause demographic changes and challenges
between Islam and nationalism.
Attempts by established regimes to crush radical Islamic opposition—as
in Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—regardless of their success
in the near term, are unlikely to be fully successful. These movements
reflect deep-seated political, economic, and social problems. Repressed
and driven underground, Islamic movements tend to be viewed by much
of the Muslim public as the only legitimate answer to their societies’
predicaments and to a deepening identity crisis. Under these
circumstances . . . Islamist movements are acquiring a monopoly by
default as the only serious opposition to failing regimes.1
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Impacts to Israel, which shares a border with Egypt;
Maintenance of the Suez Canal;
Oil flow;
Domino effect from Tunisia, and Egypt to Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon,
Syria, Jordan Turkey, Libya, Morocco, and Iran.
“As a status quo power, the United States has a strong systemic interest in
avoiding violent change and encouraging behavior in line with accepted
international norms. The links between political and economic reforms and
stability cannot be taken for granted. There is an emerging Western consensus
that movement toward modern economic systems, more representative
government, and greater attention to human rights will help forestall radical
change in societies under pressure. Broadly speaking, we will continue to have
Ian O. Lesser, Bruce R. Nardulli, and Lory A. Arghavan : Sources Of Conflict In
The Greater Middle East. (This is the core reading for Scenario #4: Middle East
Political and economic Tensions)
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a national interest in preventing violent change and the emergence of radical
or revolutionary regimes (such regimes are unlikely to “wish us well”).”2
Communication
Tactical decision-making depends on accurate and timely information of what and
where events are occurring. Historically, verbal or written communication
depended on slow transport across space via foot, horse, or ship. With the event of
cell phone technology, events and their locations can be transmitted within seconds
to a wide audience via phone, E-mail, and social media like Facebook, Twitter, blogs,
and a host of other platforms. Decisions and counter-decisions can be made within
moments instead of days, weeks, or years.
Governments have learned to block transmission of cell phone technology to slow
the communication process, but alternative technologies tend to leak information to
outside resources that can broadcast to the world what is happening. This puts
pressure on governments, which cannot control outside communications.
The transmission of ideas and events across space is a core geographic concept.
You should take a quick look at Scenario #4: Middle East Tensions and use the
readings and these comments as “lens” for interpreting the unfolding events
currently occurring in Egypt.
Thanks,
Bob
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