Section 4.1 Sample Spaces and Probability Basic Probability Vocabulary: Probability experiment- A chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes Outcome- a results of a single trial of a probability experiment Sample space – a set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment Tree diagram – device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also from the outcome point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. Event – consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment Simple event – only one outcome Compound event – two or more simple events Complement of an Event E – the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of even E. The complement of E is denoted by E (E bar) Classical – uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an event will happen. (theoretical). We assume that the events are equally likely. The probability of any event E is: Number of outcomes in E P(E) = n( E ) n( S ) Total number of outcomes in the sample space Empirical – Relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of outcomes. (experimental) Use of frequencies to determine the probability of an outcome. Based on observations. The probability of an event being in a given class is P(E) = frequency for the class Total frequencies in the distribution = f n Law of Large Numbers – If the empirical probability is using a small number of trials, it is usually not exactly the same value as the classical probability. However, as the number of trials increases, the empirical probability will approach the theoretical probability. Subjective – uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information. A person or group makes an educated guess at the chance that an event will occur. This guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation of a solution. Examples of Sample Space: --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Experiment Samples Space Toss one coin Head, tail Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6 Answer a true/false question true, false Toss two coins Head-head, tail-tail, head-tail, tail-head Drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards Hearts – A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K Diamonds - A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K Spades - A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K Clubs - A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Probability Rules: 1. The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or a decimal) between and including 0 and 1. This is denoted by 0 < P(E) < 1 2. If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains no members in the sample space), its probability is 0. (Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9) 3. If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1. (Example: When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of getting a number less than 7?) 4. The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1. Rule for Complementary Events: P( E ) = 1 - P(E) Venn diagrams – or P(E) = 1 – P( E ) or P(E) + P( E ) = 1 Objective 1: Sample Spaces, Tree Diagrams, and Outcomes Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for each of the following. Example: Find the sample space for rolling two dice Example: Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three children. Use B for boy and G for girl. Examples: State the a. outcomes for the events that are listed. Rolling two dice: a sum greater than 8 b. Drawing one card from a deck: a red face card. c. Three children: At least 1 boy d. Rolling two dice: a sum of 12 e. Drawing one card from a deck: an ace of spades f. Three children: All boys Objective 2: Classical Probability Example: Find the probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck. Example: If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls. Example: Find the probability of rolling a sum of 7 when rolling two dice. Example: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find these probabilities. a. Of getting a jack b. Of getting the 6 of clubs (i.e., a 6 and a club) c. Of getting a 3 or a diamond. d. Of getting a 3 or a 6. Objective 3: Complements Example: Find the a. complement of each event: Rolling a die and getting a 4. b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a vowel. c. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J. d. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday. Example: If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized country of the world is 1/5, find the probability that a person does not live in an industrialized country. Objective 4: Empirical Probabiltiies Example: AAA asked 50 people who plan to travel over Thanksgiving holiday how they will get to their destination. Method Frequency Drive 41 Fly 6 Train or bus 3 P(driving) = 41/50 P(airplane) = Example: In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the following probabilities. a. A person has type O blood. b. A person has type A or type B blood c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood. d. A person does not have type AB blood. Example: Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed in the hospital for the number of days shown in the distribution. Find these probabilities: Number of days stayed Frequency 3 15 a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days 4 32 b. A patient stayed less than 6 days 5 56 6 19 7 5 c. A patient stated at most 4 days d. A patient stated at least 5 days Name: ________________________________ Exit 4.1 Sample Spaces and Probability Assume you are at a carnival and decide to play one of the games. You spot a table where a person is flipping a coin, and since you have an understanding of basic probability, you believe that the odds of winning are in your favor. When you get to the table, you find out that all you have to do is to guess which side of the coin will be facing up after it is tossed. You are assured that the coin is fair, meaning that each of the two sides has an equally likely chance of occurring. You think back about what you learned in your statistics class about probability before you decide what to bet on. Answer the following questions about the coin-tossing game. 1) What is the sample space? 2) What are the possible outcomes? 3) What does the classical approach to probability say about computing probabilities for this type of problem? You decide to bet on heads, believing that it has a 50% chance of coming up. A friend of yours who had been playing the game for a while before you got there, tells you that heads has come up the last 9 times in a row. You remember the law of large numbers. 4) What is the law of large numbers, and does it change your thoughts about what will occur on the next toss? 5) What does the empirical approach to probability say about this problem, and could you use it to solve this problem? 6) Can subjective probabilities be used to help solve this problem? Explain. 7) Assume you could win $1 million if you could guess what the results of the next toss will be. What would you bet on? Why? Name: _____________________________________ Statistics Homework 4.1 Sample Space and Probability 1. If a die is rolled one time, find these probabilities: a. Getting a 2 b. Getting a number greater than 6 d. Getting a 4 or an odd number c. Getting an odd number e. Getting a number greater than or equal to 3 f. Getting a number greater than 2 or an even number. 2. a. If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of getting these results. A sum of 9 b. A sum of 7 or 11 c. Doubles d. A sum less than 9 e. A sum greater than or equal to 10 3. a. If one card is drawn from a deck, find the probability of getting these results. A queen b. A club c. A queen of clubs d. A 3 or an 8 a. A 6 or a spade i. A diamond or a heart f. A 6 and a spade g. A black king h. A red card and a 7 j. A black card. 4. A shopping mall has set up a promotion as follows. With any mall purchase of $50 or more, the customer gets to spin the wheel shown here. If a number 1 comes up, the customer wins $10. If the number 2 comes up, the customer wins $5; and if the number 3 or 4 comes up, the customer wins a discount coupon. Find the following probabilities. a. The customer wins $10 b. The customer wins money c. The customer wins a coupon. 5. Human blood is grouped into four types. The percentages of Americans with each type are listed below. O 43% A 40% B 12% AB 5% Choose one American at random. Find the probability that this person a. Has type O blood b. Has type A or B c. Does not have type O or A 6. In 2004, 57.2% of all enrolled college students were female. Choose one enrolled student at random. What is the probability that the student was male? 7. A couple has three children. Find each probability. a. All boys b. All girls or all boys c. Exactly two boys or two girls d. At least one child of each gender 8. Elementary and secondary schools were classified by the number of computers they had. Choose one of these schools at random. Computers 1-10 11-20 21-50 51-100 100+ Schools 3170 4590 16,741 23,753 34,803 Choose one school at random. Find the probability that it has a. 50 or fewer computers b. More than 100 computers c. No more than 20 computers 8. There are 1,765,000 five thousand dollar bills in circulation and 3,460,000 ten thousand dollar bills in circulation. Choose one bill at random (wouldn’t that be nice!). What is the probability that it is a ten thousand dollar bill? 9. The source of federal government revenue for a specific year is 50% from individual income taxes 10% from corporate income taxes 32% from social insurance payroll taxes 3% from excise taxes 5% other If a revenue source is selected at random, what is the probability that it comes from individual or corporate income taxes? 10. A box contains a $1 bill, a $5 bill, a $10 bill, and a $20 bill. A bill is selected at random, and it is not replaced; then a second bill is selected at random. Draw a tree diagram and determine the sample space. 11. A coin is tossed; if it falls heads up, it is tossed again. If it falls tails up, a die is rolled. Draw a tree diagram and determine the outcomes. Name: ___________________________________ Practice 4.1 Sample Space and Probability Now put it all together. With your groups answer the following questions. Hand in when complete. 1. (Classical) The prime number less than 100 are listed below. 2 3 53 5 59 7 61 11 67 13 71 17 73 19 79 23 83 29 89 31 79 37 41 43 47 Choose one of these numbers at random. Find the probability that a. The number is even b. The sum of the number’s digits is even c. The number is greater than 50 2. (Empirical) Rural speed limits for all 50 states are indicated below. 60 mph 65 mph 70 mph 75 mph 1 (HI) 18 18 13 Choose one state at random. Find the probability that its speed limit is a. 60 or 70 mph b. Greater than 65 miles per hour c. 70 miles per hour or less 3. (Empirical) The following information shows the amount of debt students who graduated from college incur. $1 to $5000 $5001 to $20,000 $20,001 to $50,000 $50,000+ 27% 40% 19% 14% If a person who graduates has some debt, find the probability that a. It is less than $50001 b. It is more than $20,000 c. It is between $1 and $20,000 d. It is more than $50,000 4. (Classical and Complements) A breakdown of the sources of energy used in the United States is shown below. Oil 39% Natural gas 24% Coal 23% Nuclear 8% Hydropower 3% Other 3% Choose one energy source at random. Find the probability that it is a. Not oil b. Natural gas or oil c. Nuclear 5. (Classical and sample space) Roll two dice and multiply the numbers. a. Write out the sample space. b. What is the probability that the product is a multiple of 6. c. What is the probability that the product is less than 10. 6. (Tree diagrams and sample space) Four balls numbered 1 through 4 are placed in a box. A ball is selected at random, and its number is noted; then it is replaced. A second ball is selected at random, and its number is noted. Draw a tree diagram and determine the sample space. 7. (Tree diagrams and sample space) First-year students at a particular college must take one English class, one class in mathematics, a first-year seminar, and an elective. There are 2 English classes to choose from, 3 mathematics classes, 4 electives, and everyone takes the same first year seminar. Represent the possible schedules, using a tree diagram. 8. (Empirical) The distribution of ages of CEOs is as follow: Age Frequency 21-30 1 31-40 8 41-50 27 51-60 29 61-70 24 71-up 11 If a CEO is selected at random, find the probability that his or her age is a. Between 31 and 40 c. Over 30 and under 51 b. Under 31 d. Under 31 or over 60 9. (Classical) The wheel spinner shown here is spun twice. Determine the probability of the following events. a. An odd number on the first spin and an even number on the second spin (0 is considered even) b. A sum greater than 4 c. Even number on both spins d. A sum that is odd e. The same number on both spins 10. (Tree diagrams) A family special at a neighborhood restaurant offers dinner for four for $39.99. There are 3 appetizers available, 4 entrees, and 3 desserts from which to choose. The special includes one of each. Represent the possible dinner combinations with a tree diagram.