Supporting information S1 – Chronology of the Lake Katinda record The chronology of the uppermost sediments is based on 210Pb-dating of core 01-1P (Fig. S1-1 and Bessems, 2007), which we transferred to 07-1P using shared marker horizons of magnetic susceptibility and bulk composition. Sediment ages at depth and accumulation rates were calculated using the constant-rate-of-supply model (Binford, 1990). 2000 Median year of deposition 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 1880 1860 1840 0 20 40 60 80 100 depth (cm) Fig. S1-1 Age-depth relationship in the uppermost sediments of Lake Katinda, based on 210Pb dating (2 SD error bars indicated). The chronology of deeper sediments is based on 14 C-dating of core 02-1P (Bessems, 2007). High-quality terrestrial macrofossils being scarce, the age model is built from 14 C dates on bulk organic matter, corrected for an assumed constant old-carbon age offset. The offset 1 value used (589 years) is the mean value of four estimates, obtained by subtracting the 14C age of three terrestrial macrofossils and one 210 Pb-dated interval from bulk-organic 14 C dates at the same depth (Table S1-1). The corrected 14C ages were then converted to cal yr BP (Table S1-2) following Reimer et al. (2009). Two dates (at 178 and 236 cm) appearing much too young were excluded (Fig. S1-2). Depth (cm) Lab code 30.5 30.5 pwradlab Poz-9839 178 Raw 14C age Age offset - 210Pb dating - bulk organic mud 150* 700 550 Poz-20229 - terrestrial plant macrofossils 545 178 Poz-18579 - bulk organic mud 1025 236 Poz-19310 - terrestrial plant macrofossils 745 450 236 Poz-18625 - bulk organic mud 1195 _ 540 Poz-20286 - terrestrial plant macrofossils 2370 875 540 Poz-18580 -bulk organic mud 3245 _ Material dated 480 Table S1-1 14C and 210Pb dates used to calculate the old-carbon age offset. *Interpolated 210Pb date converted to raw 14C date. Depth Raw Lab code Material dated14 (cm) C age SD 30.5* 119 178** 236** 400 540 602 780 30 30 30 30 35 35 30 40 Poz-9839 Poz-16502 Poz-18579 Poz-18625 Poz-16549 Poz-18580 Poz-18581 Poz-4599 bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud bulk organic mud 700 1320 1025 1195 2690 3245 3410 4090 Corr. Cal yr age BP 14C 111 731 436 606 2101 2656 2821 3501 114 677 502 603 2073 2778 2923 3773 Min age Max age (2 sigma) 12 664 338 543 1989 2544 2847 3645 (2 sigma) 269 687 532 655 2291 2924 3019 3880 Table S1-2 Calibrated 14C ages used to calculate the age-depth relationship for Lake Katinda sediments. *Replaced by 210Pb date. **Dates excluded from age model. 2 depth (cm) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 500 cal yrs BP 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Fig. S1-2 Age-depth relationship in the main sediment sequence of Lake Katinda, based on 14C dating of bulk-organic matter corrected for a constant oldcarbon age offset, with error bars indicating 2-sigma error ranges. Crosses indicate dates excluded from the age model; the open symbol is a date replaced by the corresponding 210Pb date. S2 – Age-depth modeling and correction for the compaction gradient in Lake Katinda The used age model is based on the total of 13 210Pb-dated intervals (0-43 cm), five 14C dates (43 cm to the base of 02-1P at 780 cm), and the surface tie-point of core 01-1P (January 2001). Water-content variation (Bessems, 2007) reveals a compaction gradient in the uppermost 50 cm (cf. 210 Pb dates and Fig. S1-1), and a second section of uncompacted sediments around 260-280 cm (ca. 1500 cal yr BP, Fig S2-2). High-amplitude lake-level fluctuations in climate-sensitive tropical lakes such as Katinda cause significant variation in conditions of mid-lake sedimentation, which affects both dry-sediment composition and water content (e.g. Verschuren, 2001), and thus also the relationship between charcoal abundance 3 and charcoal flux. To correct for such bias, we considered different age-depth models to account for the probable variation in sediment accumulation suggested by sedimentological changes through the sequence, using CLAM (Blaauw, 2010). In total, we considered 15 different age-depth models (Table S2-1), on either linear depth or accumulated dry mass scales, and with a variety of smoothing parameters. Models or smoothing values producing chronological inversions were excluded. In general, the greatest differences between the different age models occur in the upper meter of the sequence, due to a slope change between the 14C date at 119 cm and the 210Pb-dated section. Type Interpolated Polynomial Polynomial Polynomial Smooth spline Smooth spline Smooth spline Smooth spline Interpolated Polynomial Polynomial Polynomial Smooth spline Smooth spline Smooth spline Y axis Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm Linear cm g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 g dry mass/cm2 Parameter _ 3 4 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 _ 3 4 0.7 0.8 0.85 0.9 Tab S2-1 The resulting differences in CHAR estimation are reported in S3. The final age-depth model (Fig S2-2) is a smoothed spline based on cumulative dry mass with smoothing parameter 0.8. This model treats changes in sedimentation rates rather conservatively, and results in a good temporal match between the local (Lake Katinda %CaCO3) and regional (Lake Edward %Mg) evidence of climatic drought episodes (Fig. 2, main text). 4 Fig S2-2 The selected 0.8 smoothed-spline age model based on cumulative dry mass. S3 – Estimation of confidence intervals for the Katinda charcoal influx We tested the extent to which the 15 different age-depth models (S2) change the temporal patterns in charcoal flux values, producing 95% confidence intervals (Fig S3-1). This demonstrated the robustness of fire increases around 2170 cal yr BP and after 1750 AD, and of the multi-century cycles between those two dates (Fig. 2, main text). 5 Fig S3-1: 95% C.I. on charcoal flux according to different age-depth models, versus linear core depth. S4 - Chronology of the Lake Naivasha record, and charcoal influx estimation The chronology of the Lake Naivasha sequence is anchored at 18 depth intervals in addition to the sediment-water interface (Table S4-1). This total includes eight macrofossils from core 93-2L (Verschuren, 2001), and 10 210 14 C dates on plant Pb-dated intervals in NC93-1S (Verschuren, 1999), transferred to NC01-1P using eight tie points based on LOI variation and three layers with Salvinia debris (Mergeay et al., 2004). For the final age model, we linearly interpolated between the dated intervals as in Verschuren et al. (2000), to account for substantial variation in sediment accumulation through time. Charcoal concentrations per volume (particles/cm3) were obtained by converting sample wet weights to corresponding volumes, using the dry/wet ratio and a regression of porosity vs water content based on core NC 91-S. Charcoal influx values (particles/(cm2*yr) were then calculated by dividing volumetric concentrations by the depositional time (yrs/cm) of the interval, as derived from the age-depth curve. 6 Lab code or depth below lake surface (cm) Corrected depth (cm, center) Age (cal yr AD) NC01-1S 0 NC01-1S 22 NC01-1S 30 NC01-1S 40 NC01-1S 54 NC01-1S 66 NC01-1S 80 NC01-1S 92 NC01-1S 102 NC01-1S 124 NC01-1S 144 NC93-2L 1831 NC93-2L 1855 NC93-2L 1889 NC93-2L 1965 NC93-2L 2009 NC93-2L 2033 NC93-2L 2066 NC93-2L 2188 -3 19 27 37 51 63 77 89 99 121 141 339 363 397 473 513 537 569 691 2001.4 1993.4 1988.4 1982.0 1967.8 1954.9 1938.4 1917.2 1890.5 1838.1 1818.7 1530.0 1436.0 1400.0 1278.0 1229.0 1011.0 891.0 600.0 Table S4-1 S5 - Multivariate and wavelet analyses Underlying gradients in the pollen data set were extracted with indirect gradient analysis (Birks & Gordon, 1985) using Canoco 4.5 (ter Braak & Smilauer, 2002). We used a total of 50 and 62 pollen samples for Lake Katinda and Lake Naivasha, respectively. The pollen sum excluded pollen of aquatic plants, Cyperaceae (which are mostly derived from lakeshore sedges) and spores of ferns and mosses. Preliminary Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed that the pollen datasets from both lakes fit a linear rather than unimodal model (1.8 SD for Lake Katinda; 1.4 SD for Lake Naivasha). Therefore, we preferred PCA to DCA (Birks & Gordon, 1985), using untransformed pollen %, with species scores divided by SD, focus scaling on inter-species correlations and centering by species. Samples and species scores are reported in Fig. S5-1. 7 Fig S5-1 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) plot for Lake Katinda and Naivasha. Sample symbols reflect the pollen zones (Ssemmanda et al., unpublished). For Lake Katinda, pollen zone 1-2 corresponds to woodlands and forest with Celtis, Acalypha and Urticaceae, pollen zone 3 to the shrublands/savanna transition and pollen zones 4-5 to the expansion of savannah grasslands. Pollen zonation for Lake Naivasha follows Lamb et al. (2003). 8 Finally we used wavelet analysis (Torrence & Compo, 1998) to assess changes in the frequency of burning during the last 4000 years at Lake Katinda. Charcoal influx values (Fig 2c) were resampled at the mean sample resolution (5 yr) to gain an evenly spaced interval. We used a Gaussian curve which best fitted the spiky nature of charcoal peaks, 8 parameters, and a power-of-2 = 6 (Fig 2d, main text). S6 Charcoal morphology analysis To support our arguments on the provenance of recovered macro-charcoal we analyzed the morphology of charcoal particles at the transition between forest and savanna (Fig S6-1 and Fig. 2e, main text). Aspect ratio, thickness and presence of stomata (Umbanhowar & McGrath, 1998; Wooller et al., 2000; Wooller, 2002; Jensen et al. 2007) of most fragments (>80%) are indicative of savanna fire, with a minor contribution (10-20%) of woody vegetation (Fig. S6-1 and 2, analyst: Giorgia Beffa). Fig S6-1. Charcoal morphology at three levels in the Katinda sequence. (a) around 2700 cal yr BP; (b) the initial (aborted) expansion of grasslands around 2550 cal yr BP; (c) final expansion of grasslands around 2150 cal yr BP. 9 % grass charcoal 100 75 50 25 0 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 cal yr BP Fig S6-1. % of grass charcoal between ca 3800 and 2000 cal yrs BP. The period around 2550 cal yrs BP has been analyzed every cm (total of 25 samples, see Fig 2C2, main text). References Binford MW (1990) Calculation and uncertainty analysis of 210Pb dates for PIRLA project lake sediment cores. Journal of Paleolimnology, 3, 253–267. 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The Holocene, 12,97–105. 14 Wooller MJ, Street-Perrott FA, Agnew ADQ (2000) Late Quaternary fires and grass-land palaeoecology of Mount Kenya, East Africa: evidence from charred grass cuticles in lake sediments. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 164, 207–230. 10