[Geophysical Research Letters] Supporting Information for Scaling of maximum observed magnitudes with geometrical and stress properties of strikeslip faults Patricia Martínez-Garzón 1, Marco Bohnhoff 1,2, Yehuda Ben-Zion3, Georg Dresen1,4 (1) GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany (2) Free University Berlin, Institute of Geological sciences, Berlin, Germany (3) Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA (4) Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Potsdam, Germany Contents of this file Table S1 Text S2 Figure S3 Figure S4 Supplement References 1 Introduction Table S1 provides with the data compiled throughout 2014 from literature research. Supplement S2 provides an overview on the parameters derived for each specific fault as well as the literature references from which the data has been taken. When possible, uncertainties in these quantities are provided. Figure S3 provides a general overview on the approximate locations of the strike slip faults used in this study. Figure S5 presents the stress drop results analogous to Fig 3c from the main text, but calculated using a W source model. Table S1. Parameters from thirty major continental strike-slip faults sections worldwide used in this study. Cd : Cumulative displacement. z : Seismogenic thickness. M MAX : Maximum observed magnitude. u : Average coseismic slip. RL : Earthquake rupture length. L f : Total mapped fault length. : Angle between fault trace and maximum horizontal stress. 1 Low Low z (km) Up z (km) Best Low Up (km) Best z (km) M MAX M MAX M MAX 475 485 18 11 25 8,1 8 8,5 7 10 15 13 17 7,8 3 0 5 13 10 15 24 19 29 9 7 9,1 8,5 9 11 3 1,6 4 200 200 Best Cd Cd Fault ID Fault (km) (km) 1 Alpine Fault 480 2 6 Atera Fault Atotsugawa fault Calaveras Fault Calico Mesquite (ECSZ) Camp Rock (ECSZ) 7 Chaman 3 4 5 RL (km) Mag. type (km) (deg) 8,2 380 Mw 900 63 7,5 7,9 60 M 65 43 7,1 7 7,2 23 M 80 45 11 6,6 6,4 6,8 25 M 123 53 10 12 5,3 5,2 5,4 M 125 42 10 9 12 7,3 7,2 7,4 Mw 35 42 400 30 28 32 7,8 7,7 8 M 850 53 1000 25 Cd 3 71 8.a DST, North 80 75 85 30 28 31 7,50 7,4 7,80 ML 8.b DST,South 105 100 110 20 19 21 7,3 7,1 7,5 ML 9 350 300 400 20 15 25 7,9 7,7 7,9 10 Denali East Anatolian Fault 30 27 33 19 18 20 7,5 7,3 7,8 11 El Pilar Fault 60 55 65 12 10 14 7,3 7,2 7,4 12 Fairweather 6 5 16 20 18 22 7,8 7,7 7,9 13 Garlock 56 48 64 12 11 13 7 6,6 7,4 14 75 60 90 20 15 25 7,4 7,2 7,9 8 15 Haiyuan Hayward Fault 68 53 83 7 5 9 6,8 6,7 6,9 0,9 16 Hope 19 14 24 9 6 12 7,1 7 17 150 100 200 14,5 12 17 7,5 4 3 5 15,5 13 18 19 MTL Neodani Fault Newport Inglewood 5 1 10 10 9 20 NAFZ 90 85 95 16 10 18 Lf u (m) Up 4,2 Mw 1500 80 M 550 55 Mw 408 63 Mw 1200 43 M 245 53 200 M 280 53 51 M 120 60 7,3 87 Mw 220 40 7,3 7,6 40 M 500 30 7,5 7,4 7,8 80 Mw 60 48 11 6,4 6,3 6,5 35 Mw 60 53 20 7,8 7,7 7,9 360 Mw 1200 45 4 5 2,5 340 30 200 1 21.a 436 360 512 16 15 20 7,9 7,7 8 3,3 432 Mw 1300 65 209 104 315 19,5 18 21 7,9 7,8 8 6,4 297 Mw 1300 60 27 25 29 16,5 15,5 17,5 7 6,8 7,1 M 265 55 23 SAF, North SAF, Cholame Cajon Pass San Jacinto Fault San MiguelVallecitos 0,6 0,1 5 12 11 17 6,6 6,5 6,7 0,5 22 M 160 38 24 Tanna 1 0,1 6 11 9 13 6,9 6,8 7,1 2,9 35 Mw 30 45 25 Wairau Whittier Elsinore 455 430 480 17 11 25 8 7,9 8,10 Mw 25 10 40 15 14 16 7,1 6,9 7,5 M 21.b 22 26 65 275 53 2 Text S2. A brief description of each fault is here provided with the appropriate references where the data is taken from, estimated uncertainties, moment magnitude and individual comments. 1 Alpine Fault, New Zealand Paleoseismic evidence suggest that it ruptured in large earthquakes (M > 7.5) [Leitner et al., 2001]. The 1717 event had a moment magnitude of MW 8.1 ± 0.1 based on the 380-km-long surface rupture [Pascale and Langridge, 2012]. Thus, these values and uncertainties are here used. Leitner et al., [2001] also indicated that the Alpine releases elastic strain seismically from the surface down to 10-12 km, but notice that locking depth estimated from GPS data is 20-30 km [Barth et al., 2013]. Thus, a value of 18 km is here used for the seismogenic depth, with uncertainties 11 - 25 km. The Alpine Fault (Fig. S1.D) has a remarkably straight surface trace for over 800 km [Barth et al., 2013], although no information is provided on how much the fault might extend offshore. The Wairau fault (Fig. S1.D) is the natural prolongation of the Alpine. For analyzing mapped fault length, the Wairau fault has been added to the Alpine fault (total of 900 km). Cumulative offsets taken from Stirling et al. [1996] and references therein. Also, according to Leitner et al., [2001]: The region deforms under a uniform stress field with a maximum principal shortening direction of 110° - 120°. 2 Atera Fault, Japan Toda and Inoue [1995] and Toda et al. [1996] conducted a trenching survey and suggested that the greatest activity on the Atera fault system (Fig. S3.C) is the 1586 Tensho earthquake (M 7.8 from Yabe et al., [2010]). The magnitude type is unknown. Therefore, this value is used with an uncertainty between 7.5 and 7.9. To estimate the rupture length, the empirical relation between magnitude and RL proposed by Matsuda, [1975] is used (contained also in Kanaori, [1994]): log RL 0.6M 2.9 . The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated from Tanaka et al., [2004]), based on the 90% cutoff of the relocated seismicity from Japan Meteorological Agency (between 13 and 17 km). The length of the fault is 60-70 km [Stirling et al., 1996]. Cumulative offset is taken from Stirling et al., [1996] and references therein. Yabe et al., [2010] estimated the stress field from Deformation Rate Analysis and concluded that the orientation of S HMAX is around N – S. 3 Atotsugawa Fault, Japan The largest historical earthquake is the 1858 Hietsu earthquake (∼M 7.1), which occurred along the Atotsugawa (Fig. S3.C) and Mozumi - Sukenobu faults [Nakajima, 2010]. Due to the unknown magnitude type, uncertainties are here considered between M 6.9 and 7.2. To estimate the rupture length of this earthquake, the empirical relation between magnitude and RL proposed by Matsuda, [1975] is used (contained also in Kanaori, [1994]). In Nakajima, [2010], the depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated to be at ~ 15 km in the deepest parts. From Tanaka [2004], the depth of seismogenic layer is between 11–15 km. The Atotsugawa fault system is composed of three main strike-slip faults, covering approximately 80 km [Katsumata, 2010]. Cumulative offset is taken from [Stirling et al., 1996] and references therein. The direction of S HMAX and the fault trace forms an angle of 43 – 48° [Katsumata, 2010]. 4 Calaveras Fault, Northern California, USA The largest recorded event at the Calaveras Fault (Fig. S3.B) occurred in 1911 in the Morgan Hill area. Doser et al., [2008] gave this event a M 6.6, but not specified type of magnitude. 1 Therefore, here a M 6.6 is considered (unknown type), with larger uncertainties of 0.2 . The RL of the Morgan Hill event was estimated to be 25 km [Oppenheimer et al., 1990]. However, approximately same rupture length is reported for the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (M 6.2). Thus, this value is probably a lower estimate. The seismogenic layer is not arriving to 10 km using relocated seismicity hypocenters. Therefore, here a value of 9 km is used, with an uncertainty of 2km to account for the hypocentral location error [Schaff et al., 2002]. At the Calaveras Fault, the cumulative offset is 24 km [Stirling et al., 1996] and references therein. The total length of the fault is approximately 123 km [Working group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003]. The angle between the fault trace and S HMAX is estimated from Hardebeck and Michael, [2004]. 5 Calico-Mesquite, Eastern California Shear Zone, USA The Calico fault (Fig. S3.B) has not ruptured in historical times. However, it triggered a 5.3 event after the Landers earthquake in 1992 [from SCEDC catalog of significant earthquakes and faults]. Since this earthquake occurred in recent times, uncertainty of 0.1 is considered. The depth of the seismogenic layer (12 km) was first estimated from Hauksson et al., [1993] and Smith Konter et al., [2011]. Now, we use the relocated catalog of southern California from Hauksson et al., [2012], calculating the cutoff depth of the 90% seismicity. Here, the seismogenic thickness is 9 km. Therefore, here a value of 10 km is used with uncertainties covering these two values. The cumulative offset is 8 km taken from Stirling et al., [1996] and references therein. In Petersen and Wesnousky, [1994], cumulative offset is between 8.5 and 9.6 km. The length of the fault is taken from Stirling et al., [1996]. The angle between the fault trace and S HMAX is assumed to be very similar to that of the Camp Rock fault. 6 Camp Rock, Eastern California Shear Zone, USA The major rupture of the Camp Rock Fault (Fig. S3.B) is the 1992 Landers earthquake, with magnitude MW 7.3 [Hauksson et al., 1993]. Since this earthquake occurred in recent times, uncertainty of 0.1 is considered. The surface RL of the Landers event was estimated in 71 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. The depth of the seimogenic layer is estimated in 12 km following [Hauksson et al., 1993]. Using the relocated catalog of southern California from Hauksson et al., [2012], the cutoff depth of the 90% seismicity occurs at 9 km. [Hauksson et al., 2012]. Here, a value of 10 km is used, with uncertainties extending to these values. The cumulative offset is 1,6 4 km taken from Stirling et al., [1996], Petersen and Wesnousky, [1994] and references therein. The length of the Camp Rock fault alone is about 35 km [from Fault Database of Southern California Earthquake Datacenter]. This earthquake did not only activate this fault, but also the Johnson Valley Fault, the Kickapoo Fault and the Homestead Valley fault. The angle between the fault trace and S HMAX is estimated from Hardebeck and Michael, [2006]. 7 Chaman Transform Fault Zone (Afghanistan - Pakistan) Greatest earthquakes on the Chaman Fault (Fig. S3.A) can be found in [Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003]: “The M 7.3 1931 earthquake released stresses that may have “unclamped” the subsequent M 7.7 left-lateral Quetta earthquake”. Other sources give to this event a value between MW 7.7 and MW 8.1 (http://www.dawn.com/news/1068419/dawn-features-october-25-2005). Therefore, here a value of MW 7.8 is used with uncertainties between the mentioned values. For this fault, Ambraseys and Bilham, [2003] reported a significant earthquake moment release at 30 km depth. Therefore, this value is chosen as the depth of seismogenic layer, with uncertainties of 2km . The length of the fault is estimated in approximately 850 – 900 km 2 (http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1685#.VMDYXkfF-wU). Between 200 and 400 km of left cumulated slip along the Chaman fault seems probable [Lawrence et al., 1981], but they could only demonstrate 200 km. Therefore, these values are used as uncertainties, but the best value corresponds to the highest demonstrable offset (200 km). The orientation of the stress field is taken from Zhang et al., [2011]. 8 Dead Sea Transform (Syria – Lebanon – Jordan – Israel – Saudi Arabia) The Dead Sea Transform (DST) Fault Zone (Fig. S3A) extends by approximately 1000 km [Quenell, 1958; Freund et al., 1970]. The stress field orientation is taken from Eyal, [1996]. We have analyzed two particular sections of the Dead Sea Transform: 8.1 Northern Section (Syria - Lebanon) The potentially strongest event reported for the DST is the Antiochia earthquake of 859 AD [Ben-Menahem, 1991]. Its magnitude values extend between M 7 and 8. The largest event with a consistent magnitude of M 7.4 occurred in 1759. Another event with M 7.5 occurred in 1202 in this area [Ambraseys, 1989]. Thus, here M 7.5 is used with uncertainties extending [7.4 – 7.8] to account for the potentially larger Antiochia event. The depth limit of seismicity is unusually large (about 31 km) [Aldersons et al., 2003; Braeuer et al., 2012]. Alderson et al., [2003], shows that the events in the north occur at a maximum depth of 31 km. A value of 30 km with uncertainties of 28 to 31 km is considered. The total displacement in the northern section is 80 km [Garfunkel, 1981]. Uncertainty for this measurement is unknown. 8.2 Southern Section (Gulf of Eilat – Jordan River – Dead Sea) The maximum magnitude here was estimated in the ML 7.3 earthquake from 746 [BenMenahem, 1991, Table 2]. To account for the unknown conversion to moment magnitude, uncertainty of 0.3 is considered. Alderson et al., [2003], show that the events occur in the south at a maximum depth of 20 km. These results are confirmed by the study of Braeuer et al., [2012] as well as Wetzler [2014]. An uncertainty range of 1km is here considered. The total displacement in the southern section is 105 km [Quenell, 1958; Freund et al., 1970; Weber et al. 2009]. Uncertainty for this measurement is unknown. 9 Denali Fault, Alaska, USA The total length of the Denali Fault (Fig. S3B) is 1500 km. The cumulative offset is 300 – 400 km is taken from the USGS report from Nokleberg et al., [1985]. The largest known earthquake in the Denali fault happened in 2002, with MW 7.9 [Eberthart-Phillips et al., 2003, Bufer, 2004, Choy, 2004, Ozacar, 2004]. It has been also decomposed in two events, then the largest one of MW 7.7 [Ozacar, 2004]. The RL of this event was estimated in 340 m [Choy and Boatwright, 2004]. Ratchkovski et al., [2003] relocated more than 4000 aftershocks from the Denali Earthquake. They observed that the aftershocks were located down to 12 km, most of them located at 10 km. However, in Fisher et al., [2007], the Denali fault is observed to extend to depths between 20 and 25 km. Therefore, 20 km is here taken as a value with uncertainties of 5km . The stress field orientation is estimated from the report of Ruppert, “Stress Map for Alaska from Earthquake Focal Mechanisms”. There, stress inversions are performed separately for the fault section between Denali and Fairweather, Eastern Denali fault and Totschunda Fault. In the three cases, the angle between S HMAX and 1 varies between 70 and 85. 10 East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkey Historical and instrumental records reveal significant differences between historical and recent seismicity. The largest earthquake along the EAFZ (Fig. S3A) occurred on 1114 (Maras, Ms 3 > 7.8), 1513 (Ms > 7.4) and 1893 (Ms > 7.1) [Ambraseys and Jackson, 1998]. Since the earthquake in Maras could have been overestimated or occur in the Dead Sea Transform Fault (EAFZ and DST join in Maras), a value of Ms 7.4, MW 7.5 seems reasonable with uncertainties extending from 7.3 to 7.8. This event is categorized as unknown magnitude type. The length of the fault (500 km – 600 km) and depth of seismogenic layer is estimated from seismicity shown in Bulut et al., [2012].There, 90% of the seismicity is be approximately 19 km. Therefore, this value is here used with uncertainties of 1km . Largest cumulative offsets are 27–33 km constrained by the offset of geological features and by the length of the Golbasi strike-slip basin [Westaway and Arger, 1996, Bulut et al., 2012]. The stress field is estimated following Yilmaz et al., [2006]. 11 El Pilar Transform Zone, Venezuela There are few reported historical earthquakes that caused tsunamis for which the magnitude has not been estimated. Not considering this, Ms 7.1 – 7.3 is the maximum earthquake on this fault [Audemard, 2007]. This results in MW 7,2 to 7,4. Therefore, these values are here used. According to the micro-seismicity shown in Jouanne et al., [2011], the thickness of the seismogenic layer from the 90% of the seismicity is approximately 12 km. Since here the estimation is performed from GPS data and not from seismicity, an uncertainty of 2km is considered. The length of the fault is described in [Audemard et al., 2000] (page 66). The cumulative offset is in the order of 60 km [Audemard and Giraldo, 1997]. The stress field of this fault is analyzed in detail in Audemard et al., [2005]. 12 Fairweather Fault, Alaska, USA The length of the Fairweather System (Fig. S3B) is around 1200 km [Fletcher and Freymueller, 2003]. The largest event reported in this fault occurred in 1958. The magnitude was M 7.9 (magnitude type not reported) in Page, [1969] and MW 7.78 in Bufe, [2005]. Therefore, uncertainty of 0.1 assumed. The surface rupture RL of this event was estimated in 200 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. Doser, [2010] relocated the earthquakes in the Denali fault between 1971 and 2005 and reported that most of the seismicity is concentrated up to 20 km. Since no clear 90% cutoff can be estimated here, an uncertainty of 2km is used. Major valleys are systematically offset in a dextral way approximately 5.5 km, which suggest that the fault cannot be older than 100000 years [Plafker et al., 1978]. Additionally, Kalbas et al., [2008] pointed out that the cumulative offset in the Artlewis Fault (Southern segment of the Fairweather fault) is 16 5km . Therefore, a value of 6 km is here used with upper uncertainty covering this measurement. The stress field orientation is estimated from Bufe, [2005]. 13 Garlock Fault, Southern California, USA The total length of the Garlock Fault (Fig. S3B) is approximately 240 – 250 km [Wesnousky, 1988]. No earthquake has produced surface rupture on the Garlock fault in historic times. However, dividing the observed offsets by the range of slip rates led to estimate the occurrence of events of magnitude greater than about 7 [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994]. Thus, here a M 7 (unknown type) is used, with the largest uncertainty range of 0.4 . The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated in 12 km in [Nazareth and Hauksson, 2004]. In this study, the error range in the seismogenic thickness prediction is 2.3 km. The cumulative offset at the Garlock fault is estimated to be 64 km [Stirling et al., 1996] and references therein. “The Garlock fault of southern California has a leftlateral displacement of at least 48 to 64 km.” [Davis and Burchfiel, 1973]. The orientation of the stress field is estimated from Hardebeck and Hauksson, [2001]. 14 Haiyuan Fault, Tibet 4 The length of the Haiyuan fault (Fig. S3A) is 280 km according to Stirling et al., [1996]. The greatest earthquake on this fault is the 1920 Kansu event. The magnitude of this event is Ms 8.6 [Liu-Zeng et al., 2007]. However, the same event had been given also ML 7,8. (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/mag8/magnitude8_1900_date.php). Using an empirical relation between MW and ML for China: MW 0.85M L 0.58 [Li et al., 2014], this event has a moment magnitude of MW 7.2. However, Wells and Coppersmith, [1994] gave a MW 8.0 to this event. Therefore, a value of MW 7.4 is here used, with uncertainties ranging from MW 7.2 to 8. The surface RL of this event was estimated in 220 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. No studies on the seismogenic depth could be found particularly for the Haiyuan fault. Thus, we estimated the seismogenic layer from the studies of [Bell et al., 2011] using ESA and ERS data to estimate the slip rates of the Kunlun – Altyn Tagh faults. A value of 22 km was provided. Here, we used a value of 20 km with uncertainty of 5km . Cumulative offset from [Stirling et al., 1996] and references therein was estimated in between 12 and 14.5 km. More recently, it was refined with the data from [Liu-Zeng et al., 2007], in which the cumulative offset is varying between 60 and 90 km. The stress field orientation was estimated using data from the World Stress Map Project [Heidbach et al., 2010]. 15 Hayward Fault, Northern California, USA The length of this fault (Fig. S3B) is estimated in 120 km [Lienkaemper et al., 1991; Waldhauser and Ellsworth, 2002]. The largest quake on the Hayward Fault in recorded history occurred in 1868, with an estimated magnitude of 6.8 - 7.0. Wells and Coppersmith, (1994) gave to this event a MW 6.76. Thus, M 6.8 is here chosen with uncertainties between M [6.6 -7] (unknown magnitude type). The surface RL of this event was estimated in 48 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994] or 54 km (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/M6.8.php). The dextral cumulative offset at the Hayward fault exhibits about 160 to 170 km across faults of the East San Francisco Bay Region (ESFBR) [McLaughlin et al., 1996]. Among them, 68 15km are accumulated between the Tolay-Rogers Creek – Haywards faults. From cutoff seismicity analysed [Bürgmann et al., 2000], the seismogenic layer is estimated to be at 10 – 12 km. Also, Waldhauser and Ellsworth, [2002] relocated the seismicity having most of the events up to 13 km. To correct for the part of the seismogenic layer that is creeping, Lienkaemper et al., [1991] estimated that the seismogenic thickness is approximately 11 km, from which 7 km might be fully locked. Therefore, this is the estimation that is performed here, accounting for uncertainties of 2km . The orientation of the stress field is estimated following Hardebeck and Michael, [2004]. 16 Hope Fault, Marlborough Fault System, New Zealand The length of the Hope fault (Fig. S3D) is 220 km [Stirling et al., 1996]. Cumulative offset is also taken from Stirling et al., [1996]. The Hope’s largest event was the 1888 North Canterbury MW (Amuri) earthquake. This event had 7–7.3, according to http://info.geonet.org.nz/display/quake/M+7.0+-+7.3,+North+Canterbury,+1+September+1888. Thus, MW 7.1 has been here assigned to this event, with uncertainties between MW 7 and 7.3. The surface RL of the North Canterbury event was estimated in 13, 50, 60 and 150 km[Cowan and McGlone, 1991]. Therefore, an estimation of the latest three values (87 km) is here used. The earthquake are distributed all depths down to 9 km [Leitner et al., 2001]. Since the seismicity here 5 was only located and due to the great difference with the other faults from New Zealand, an uncertainty of 3km is used. 17 Median Tectonic line (MTL), Japan The total length of the fault is 500 km [Ikeda et al., 2009]. The stress field is estimated according to the results of Famin et al., [2014]. The largest earthquake occurred on 1596 in Kinai and had a reported magnitude of M 7.5 (unknown type) [Kanaori et al., 1994]. To account for potential magnitude conversion to MW , uncertainties are considered between 7.3 and 7.6. The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated from Tanaka et al., [2004], who estimated it based on the 90% cutoff of the seismicity using the relocated catalog of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The distribution of the seismicity varies between 12 and 17 km. The cumulative displacement is a controversial measure. About 2 km of cumulative displacement has been reported at the Kii Peninsula for the Quaternary period [Kaneko, 1966]. However, the fault was active for a larger geological period, and between 100 and 200 km of total displacement were reported by Takagi and Shibata, [2000] from the mid-Cretaceus. Therefore, these values are here used. 18 Neodani Fault System, Japan Kanaori et al., [1990] reported a length of 60 km for the Neodani fault (Fig. S3C) alone. Cumulative offset is taken from Stirling et al., [1996]. The largest earthquake that occurred in this fault is the 1891 Nobi earthquake. Tsutsumi et al., [2004] reported M 8.0 for this event (unknown magnitude type). However, Fukuyama et al., [2007] created synthetic seismograms from source models with various fault parameters, compared them with the original records and estimated a MW 7.5. Therefore, accounting for the conversion of the Tsutsumi estimation to MW , uncertainties are here considered from 7.4 to 7,8. The surface RL of the Nobi earthquake was estimated in 80 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated from Tanaka et al., [2004], based on the 90% cutoff of the seismicity using the relocated catalog of JMA. Here, the seismogenic depth varies between 13 and 18 km. The stress field orientation is estimated from Townend and Zoback, [2006]. 19 Newport – Inglewood, Southern California, USA The length of this fault (Fig. S3B) is 60 km [Wesnousky, 1989]. The cumulative offset 0.2 – 10 km is taken from [Stirling et al., 1996]. The maximum magnitude event observed here is the event from 1933 at Long Beach. Wells and Coppersmith [1994] estimated the magnitude of this event in MW 6.38. Thus, a MW of 6.4 is here used with an uncertainty of 0.1. The earthquake rupture length is here estimated in 35 km based on the aftershock distribution of the Long Beach earthquake [Hauksson and Gross, 1991]. The depth of the seimogenic layer (10 km) is estimated following the results in [Nazareth and Hauksson, 2004]. In this study, error range in the seismogenic thickness prediction is 2.3 km. This is consistent with the estimation using the seismicity catalog [Hauksson et al., 2012]. Stress field orientation is taken from Hardebeck and Hauksson, [2001]. 20 North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), Turkey The total fault length (Fig. S3A) has been estimated between 1200 and 1600 km [Sengör, 2005; Bulut et al., 2007]. The largest earthquake in this section is the Erzincan earthquake, 1939 of magnitude Ms 7.8 and M 7.9 to 8 [Barka, 1996]. A MW 7.8 is given in Wells and Coppersmith, [1994]. Therefore, here a 6 MW 7.8 with an uncertainty of 0.1is used. The RL of the Erzincan event was estimated in 360 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. The cumulative offset of the NAFZ has been a matter of debate for a long time. However, at the eastern part of the fault where the Erzincan earthquake occurred there may be between 85 – 95 km of cumulative slip [Hubert-Ferrari et al., 2002; Sengör et al., 2005]. Grosser et al., [1998] analyzed and located aftershock seismicity from the Erzincan earthquake. From the 90% cutoff of the seismicity, the seismogenic depth is estimated in 12 km. Here, uncertainty is larger since no local velocity model was available. Recently, Walters et al., [2014] obtained 16 10km for the locking depth using INSAR and GPS data. Therefore, these values are used. Stress field orientation is estimated using data from the World Stress Map Project [Heidbach et al., 2010]. 21 San Andreas Fault (SAF), California, USA The San Andreas Fault (Fig. S3B) is specified to be approximately 1300 km long. Stress field orientation is estimated following Hardebeck and Michael, [2004]. In this study we have selected to specific sections of the San Andreas Fault: 21.1 Northern Section (Shelter Cove – San Francisco Bay) The entire segment failed during the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (M 8.2) with a ~430 km long surface rupture. This event has been given MW 7.7 [Wallace, 1990], and MW 7.9 in Wells and Coppersmith, [1994] and also by University of California, Berkeley (http://seismo.berkeley.edu/outreach/1906_quake.html). Therefore, here MW 7.9 is assumed, with uncertainties between MW [7.7 - 8]. The surface RL of the San Francisco event was estimated in 432 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. Furlong and Atkinson, [1993] estimated the 90% cutoff of the seismicity in Northern California and they provided with an estimation up to 16 km. However, some patches were seen to have up to 20 km. Therefore, here the value of 16 km is used with uncertainties between 15 and 20 km. Cumulative offset is described in Irwin, [1990], reporting 512 km offset near Fort Ross and 360 km in the Santa Cruz Mountains. 21.2 Southern Section (Cholame – Cajon Pass) It almost completely failed during the 1857 M 8.2 Fort Tejon earthquake. This event has been given a moment magnitude of MW 7.8 [Wallace, 1990], MW 7.85 [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994], and MW 7.9 [Stover and Coffman, 1993]. Therefore, MW 7.9 is used here with uncertainties MW [7.8 - 8]. The surface RL of the Fort Tejon event was estimated in 297 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. The depth of the seismogenic layer was estimated from geodesy and 90 % cutoff of seismicity [Smith-Konter et al., 2011]. For the segment of San Bernardino, seismogenic thickness vary between 18 and 21 km. The cumulative is approximately 315 km in the Carrizo Plain and 104 km at the south end of Great Valley [Wallace, 1990]. 22 San Jacinto Fault, California, USA The length of the San Jacinto fault zone (Fig. S3B) is approximately 230 km [Wesnousky, 1988], although when considered together with the Imperial Fault Zone, it may reach 300 km [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994]. Therefore, here a length of 265 will be considered. The total offset along the entire zone southeast of Hemet is 29 km of right slip since early Tertiary [Sanders and Kanamori, 1984]. The largest documented earthquake was on 25 December 1899 (M 7.1) [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994]. The magnitude is only calculated by intensity comparison with the earthquake in 1918. Therefore, in the conversion from magnitude intensity to moment magnitude, would be MW ~ 7. Here it is considered as unknown magnitude type of M 7 and 7 uncertainties are considered M [6.8 – 7.1]. As estimated from cutoff 90% of relocated seismicity and geodesy in Smith-Konter et al., [2011], the depth of seismogenic layer is between 16 – 17 km. Uncertainties of 1km are here considered. Stress field orientation is estimated following Hardebeck and Michael, [2004]. 23 San Miguel – Vallecitos, Baja California, Mexico The length of this fault (Fig. S3B) is 160 km and the cumulative offset is 0.5 km [Stirling et al., 1996]. The largest recorded earthquake occurred in 1956. Thatcher and Hanks, (1973) gave to this event a M 6.5 (unknown magnitude type). Wells and Coppersmith (1994) gave a MW 6.63 to this event. Therefore, an uncertainty of [6.5 – 6.7] is assigned. The surface RL of this event was estimated in 22 m [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated between 13 and 18 km from the microseismicity analyzed in [Frez et al., 2000]. Using the relocated catalog of southern California from Hauksson et al., [2012] and calculating the cutoff depth of the 90% of seismicity at this fault, a seismogenic thickness of 12 km is obtained. This value is here used, with uncertainties extending from 11 km to 17 km. Stress field orientation is estimated following Frez et al., [2000]. 24 Tanna Fault, Japan From Stirling et al., [1996], the length of the fault (Fig. S3C) is 30 km. Cumulative offset is taken from [Stirling et al., 1996] and references therein. The largest earthquake on this fault is the 1930 North Izu earthquake. [Shimazaki and Somerville, 1979] reported a M = 7.0 for this event. However, Stirling et al., [1996], and Okada and Ikeda, [1991] gave to the same event M 7.3. In Wells and Coppersmith, [1994], M 7.3 appears as surface magnitude and they gave a MW 6.9. Here, this magnitude is considered, with uncertainties extending from 6.8 to 7.1. To estimate the rupture length of this earthquake, the empirical relation between magnitude and RL proposed by Matsuda, [1975] is used. The depth of the seismogenic layer is estimated at approximately 11km from Tanaka, [2004]. Uncertainties of 2km are used. Stress field orientation is estimated following Townend and Zoback, [2006]. 25 Wairau Fault, Marlborough Fault System, New Zealand The Wairau Fault (Fig. S3D) is the prolongation of the Alpine Fault into the Marlborough Fault System. Its length has been reported in approximately 100 km [Stirling et al., 1996]. In the analysis of the total length of the fault, the length of this fault has been added to the length of the Alpine fault and treated as one. Cumulative offsets taken from Stirling et al. [1996] and references therein. The largest rupture occurred in the 1929 Murchison earthquake (ML = 7·8) [Arabasz and Robinson, 1976]. The relation of ML to MW for the New Zealand area and for earthquakes with ( M L 0.73) [Ristau, 2009]. Therefore, the 0.88 8.0 with an uncertainty of 0.1. Notice that hypocentral depth smaller than 33 km is M W Murchinson earthquake corresponds to MW seismogenic depth is 10- 12 km but locking depth from GPS data is 20-30 km [Barth et al., 2013]. Therefore, a value of 17 km is here used for the seismogenic depth, with uncertainties from 11 to 25 km. The stress field orientation is measured from Townend et al., [2012]. 26 Whittier – Elsinore, Southern California, USA The length of this fault (Fig. S3B) is 330 km [Wesnousky, 1989] and 250 km [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994]. The cumulative offset taken from [Stirling et al., 1996] is 10 – 15 km. However, [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994] gave to this fault system between 5 and 40 km along the Elsinore 8 Fault and up to 30 km in the Whittier Fault. A large earthquake occurred in February 1892 (M 7 to 7.5) [Toppozada et al., 1981]. Several investigators have suggested that this event may have occurred along the portion of the Elsinore fault south of the Coyote Mountains [Petersen and Wesnousky, 1994]. Wesnousky [1989] gave a M 7 to this event. Here, a M 7.1 is used (unknown magnitude), with uncertainties varying from 6.9 to 7.5. The depth of the seimogenic layer (14-15 km) is estimated following the results in Nazareth and Hauksson, [2004]. This is consistent with the 90% cutoff seismicity estimation from the relocated catalog of southern California from Hauksson et al., [2012], which is 14.8 km. Error range in the seismogenic thickness prediction is 2.3 km. The stress field orientation is measured from Hardebeck and Hauksson, [2001]. 27 Kunlun Fault, China The Kunlun fault bounds the northern side of the Tibet region. The length of this fault is estimated in 1500-1600 km [Xie et al., 2014]. The cumulative offset is estimated to be approximately 400 km (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=871). The largest known earthquake to date at this fault is the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake with M W 7.8. The aftershock sequence of this earthquake extends to at least 30 km depth [Xie et al., 2014]. The surface rupture length is estimated around 350 to 400 km [Fu et al., 2005] and the average coseismic slip varied between 3 and 7 m [Fu et al., 2005]. The angle between the fault trace and SHMAX is estimated from Liao et al., [2003] using the estimated stress field before the earthquake. 9 Figure S3. Approximate location of the twenty-seven major continental strike slip faults analyzed in this study. 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