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UN-HABITAT/Provincial Government of Preah Sihanouk Province:
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Summary of the Draft Report on Vulnerability to Climate Change in Sihanoukville Municipality
Analysis, Findings and Recommendations
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1. Introduction
In 2010, the Provincial Government of Preah Sihanouk Province (Provincial Hall), in discussion with
the Ministry of Environment, invited UN-HABITAT to conduct an assessment of vulnerability to
climate change in the urban area of Sihanoukville Municipality. The assessment was designed to
study risk, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, which would ultimately culminate in
recommendations for the city, both at the level of project implementation, and broader policy
considerations.
The assessment was designed to consider as broad a range of perspectives as possible. Individual
interviews were conducted with many national level officials, provincial government departments
and NGOs. Community focus groups were also held, whereby the assessment team discussed with
ordinary people their experiences of climate change. These sessions were held with the poorest
communities and were conducted with participation from women and different age groups. In depth
information was extrapolated from these sessions and analysed extensively. This was the compared
and contrasted with detailed scientific information which is available about climate change, as well
as local and national level policies.
A summary of the information gathered is presented in this report, and more details will be
presented to a ‘validation’ workshop of key participants on the 25th of May 2011.
Assessment Framework
Important definitions of the terms used throughout the summary and the report, can be found in
Annex 1. The model below demonstrates the relationships whereby risk, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity comprise overall vulnerability of the city to climate change. Therefore, in its attempt to
understand overall vulnerability, the report will examine risk, sensitivity and adaptive capacity,
giving them equal weight, in understanding overall vulnerability of the city
Risk
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
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However, the report will resist the temptation to see climate change in isolation. Instead, the
assessment team began the work with the assumption that climate change can interact with existing
environmental issues, such as waste and sewage management and loss of natural habitat, social
issues such as poor housing and land tenure issues, and economic factors such as low incomes.
Overview of the City
The 2008 census showed that 89,846 people live within the city of Sihanoukville with annual
population growth of around 3% in the last 10 years; a reasonably high figure. In 2004, the poverty
level was around 27% earning less than $1.25 per day, below the national average of around 34%.
The population is very young; 40% are under 17 with only 4% over 60. 83% are employed in services
and up to 60% of the people derive at least some of their income from the tourist industry.
The city has a low population density overall, but this is somewhat deceptive. There are large, fairly
densely populated areas, separated by areas of unused, agricultural or waste ground, making the
overall population density somewhat misleading. The city has serious issues regarding waste
management, sewage, multiple land use conflict and fresh water pollution. Areas close to the coast,
particularly Tumnup Rolok in Sangkat Muoy and Ocheuteal Beach in Sangkat Boun are vulnerable to
storms and future sea level rise. The rest of the city is located between 10-50 metres above the level
of the sea, and therefore is not immediately vulnerable to sea-level rise.
While the city does not have a major river, there are several small streams which flow into the sea.
Issues exist around these as the streams are heavily polluted and ultimately they carry this polluted
water into the sea, which has the potential to negatively affect tourism and seriously damage
aquatic life including coral and sea-grass, which exists off the coast.
Climate Risk/Exposure in Sihanoukville
Specific local climate science and projects are not yet available for Sihanoukville, so the report has
had to use national and regional level data.
The Cardamom Mountains, immediately north of the city sit under an inter-tropical convergence
zone (ITCZ), which means that Sihanoukville experiences about 2½ times the average annual rainfall
of the rest of the country – around 3200mm per year. According to the National Programme of
Action for adaptation to climate change (NAPA), under climate change, rainfall can be expected to
occur in shorter, heavier bursts with higher overall annual rainfall.
At present, rainfall causes some serious issues for the city, which can be expected to become more
serious in the future. However, major structural damage and widespread flooding are not common
in the city and have not been extensively observed in recent years, Ketsana notwithstanding.
However, flooding does occur in the city and this can contribute to, and be exacerbated by, other
problems, which are explored later.
Sea level rise is a major long term challenge for the city. The sea-level is the height of the sea relative
to a given point of land averaged over a period of time, usually one month. Under climate change,
thermal expansion and melting of polar ice will increase the volume of water in the ocean and cause
the level of the sea to rise. A rise of 1metre, which is plausible within the next 50 years according to
certain scenarios, would cause significant damage to the Tumnup Rolok community in Sangkat muoy
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and the beaches, causing a decline in tourism. The picture below shows the area of Tumnup Rolok
which would be inundated by 1 and 2 metres of sea level rise.
Climate change carries with it the risk of storms, which could increase in both frequency and
intensity. Again, under these conditions the beaches are threatened, as was the case during Ketsana
in 2009. Storms also pose serious threats to marine fishermen and the poorest, who live in low
quality housing. While the impacts of these are low at present, increasing frequency and intensity
has already been observed by communities and will become an increasingly serious problem in the
future. Storms also bring with them the possibility of larger waves, with a possibility of wave heights
of up to 6 metres, which could have serious consequences for the low-lying areas on the coast.
Climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, particularly during the dry season. The
UNDP shows that the average annual temperature could rise by up to 4.5 degree annually per year
by 2090, with greater fluctuations, meaning that temperatures 8-10 degrees hotter than present are
possible. This has a range of impacts, most notably to health of individuals, particularly the elderly,
very sick and ill. Increased temperatures can also damage marine resources and agriculture.
Temperature change is a key challenge for Cambodia as whole, being a largely agrarian nation, and
there could be knock-on effects in terms of food security. Temperature change is closely linked to
drought. A longer dry season can also be expected to have secondary effects on the city.
Sensitivity to Climate Change
Key livelihood sectors of the city are likely to be very sensitive to climate change.
Tourism in the city depends heavily beaches. While tourist arrivals are much greater during the dry
season, the increasingly volatile nature of the rainy season could cause damage to structures and
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discourage tourists from visiting during the rainy season. Sea level rise will continue to contribute
towards erosion of all beaches in the city, most notably Ocheuteal, the size of which has reduced by
up to 6metres in the last 5 years. Loss of beach represents a serious threat tourism in Sihanoukville
and this will have a knock on effect on livelihoods, particularly sellers and restaurateurs on and close
to the beach. Damage to marine resources such as coral and sea grass also threatens to negatively
impact tourism due to the emerging market for snorkelling and scuba diving.
Fishery is also a climate sensitive livelihood, and there are various drivers of this. Firstly, increasing
temperatures, along with other factors, such as marine pollution, can cause fish to migrate to other
areas, which means that existing fishing grounds may not be productive. At present, there is a very
limited understanding of whether this is likely, and to what degree it is already happening in
Cambodia, but fish numbers are declining according to communities. Storms are also likely to affect
fishing activity, particularly for marine fishermen, who can often spend up to one week at a time out
at sea. Fishing boats are old and not designed to cope with the severity of storms encountered,
which have caused loss of life in recent years. Making fishing more resilient to storms is a key
challenge.
Marine resources are also highly sensitive. Coral and sea grass is sensitive to increased exposure to
sunlight and higher water temperatures, as well as other human stresses, such as pollution. Coral
immediately off the coast is relatively unbleached at present, but action should be taken to protect it
further, as once bleaching begins, it is extremely difficult to reverse, and there are then knock-on
effects on local fishing and tourism. Determining the extent to which coral is being damaged by
climate change rather than by other stresses was not possible during the assessment.
Housing has sensitivity to climate change in poorer areas. Low grade construction of wooden houses
means that under future climate conditions, particularly through storms, floods and sea level rise.
Damage to homes was not extensively reported by the communities during the assessment, but
housing quality is an area of potentially increasing sensitivity in future. Issues regarding household
waste and sewage are addressed later.
Infrastructure is partly sensitive, and becomes more sensitive when exacerbated by other factors.
However, Sihanoukville has not experienced major problems of damage to bridges, water supply and
sanitation infrastructure and so on. There has been some superficial damage to roads, and minor
repairs are required quite frequently.
Adaptive Capacity
According to mapping conducted by EEPSEA, Cambodia has the lowest capacity to adapt to climate
change in Southeast Asia. Assessing capacity was where the assessment had the broadest scope.
In recent years a healthy policy framework has emerged at national level. NAPA sets out Cambodia’s
adaptation priorities and is a very comprehensive document. An Initial National Communication has
been submitted to the UNFCCC in 2002 and work is now well underway on the Second National
Communication, which will be published later in the year or in early 2012. A vulnerability assessment
has been conducted of the whole coastal area by Ministry of Environment. There are various local
level plans and policies in place, which are coherent. However, few of these mention climate change;
the Integrated Coastal Management Strategy being a case in point.
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The assessment of adaptive capacity also considers technology, infrastructure, governance, social
and economic issues. Referring to the risks faced by fishermen, the assessment considered weather
forecasting capabilities and found these to be quite low. The Ministry of Water Resources and
Meteorology, with assistance form the government of France, is installing a new Doppler Radar,
which will it hopes will be functional by March 2012. This will mean more accurate forecasts can be
provided to local fishermen and the general population, which will assist them to cope with
extremes in weather. Monitoring weather indicators is done locally but is not compiled into a local
forecast.
The city has serious land management challenges which are related to climate change. Firstly,
though an urban masterplan for the city has been under development as a partnership between the
Provincial Department of Land Management and JICA, it has not yet been officially approved, locally
or nationally, and the report is problematic. Realistically, the city needs an urban masterplan to
ensure that future development is climate resilient and that other environmental and social issues
are addressed. Some of the serious climate issues faced in Sihanoukville, particularly in Tumnup
Rolok, are borne out of unplanned developments.
Completing, approving and enacting an urban masterplan is an important issue to be addressed. It is
also related to the problem of a lack of land tenure. Many households, including all in Tumnup
Rolok, do not have secure tenure for their land, which can be exacerbated by climate factors,
particularly in the event of loss of homes. Lack of tenure and unplanned development all contribute
towards the water supply, sewage and waste management problems the city has, as well as a
reduction in ‘absorptive’ capacity of the land. The masterplan can also ensure better building
regulations which ensure that new urban developments are more climate resilient and, in the long
run, reduce the city’s carbon footprint.
To manage rainwater, the city currently has a network of 0.6m drainage culverts. These would need
to be extended to 1 metre in order to drain water effectively. However, at present, they drain all
water into the sea, and often become blocked with solid waste and mud, with the water being
polluted by other contaminants. Therefore, the assessment finds that expansion of drainage capacity
is insufficient and potentially mal-adaptive, as
polluted water will still ultimately end up in the
sea, and it will still be effective without better
waste management.
Waste Management services are currently
provided by a private contractor, Cintri, with
whom there have been contractual and
implementation problems. Effective removal of
solid waste is vital for the city’s adaptation,
because waste exacerbates flood damage in all
areas of the city, and is unattractive to tourists.
Urgent recommendations, therefore, are renegotiating the contract with Cintri to leave the
government in a stronger legal position, performance based standards and a complete restructuring
of the collection fees; which allows for services to be free for the poorest, and higher prices being
charged to the wealthiest to offset the cost. This needs to be backed up with a legal framework that
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punishes those who don’t pay. At the same time, this recommendation needs to be backed up by a
broader awareness raising campaign, to improve the understanding of communities.
Water supplies are a key challenge, and given the increasing trend towards ‘polarity’ in the seasons –
drier dry season and wetter rainy season – ensuring a year round supply of clean water is a crucial
challenge to the city. At present, only around 37% of the population has access to the safe water
supply, so increasing this, and providing them guaranteed supplies of water, year round, is of utmost
importance.
Sewage too is vitally important, with only around 1000 families connected to the city system, the
remainder use concrete storage, some of which are emptied by the Provincial Department of Public
Works and Transport (DPWT), but many of which are drained into local water sources, and,
ultimately, the sea. This is unsustainable and with increasing flood risks through climate change, the
knock-on effects of this method of sewage
disposal will be severe. There is no legal
framework to mandate people to dispose of
sewage sustainably (through connection to the
city system, or tank disposal through DPWT),
and this represents and urgent priority. Sewage
in the sea will seriously effect tourism and
marine biodiversity, which already face other
anthropogenic threats. In the short run, there
is evidence to suggest that increasing the
number of connections to the city system
would improve the effectiveness of the system.
Capacity to Implement
The assessment team believes that the local government has the capacity to implement the
recommendations of this report, at least in terms of project management structures, thanks to those
established by PEMSEA. The team feels that using its structure, including the project management
committee and technical working group, would be the best way to implement. Technical capacities
on climate change are low within the government as climate change is seen as a ‘new’ issue, but
capacity building efforts should be at the core of any project and achieving this, particularly in the
context of UN-HABITAT’s Cities and Climate Change Initiative (CCCI), should not be problematic.
Wider Capacities
Awareness among communities was found to be very low. Many community members found it
difficult to describe climate change impacts, even when clearly visible, and struggled to relate
broader climate change issues to their own livelihood context. The report finds that the efforts
underway to educate people should be stepped up.
Cambodia lacks a qualified new generations of professionals on climate change and wider related
issues of environmental management, coastal management and urban planning. There are no higher
education institutions offering courses in these disciplines locally and only one nationally, which has
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a very limited intake of students. A long term skills-need assessment would be a worthwhile
undertaking for the city.
A statistical capacity assessment deemed the city adaptive capacity as being ‘low-medium’ but the
assessment team felt that some of the statistics used (which were the only ones available) were misrepresentations.
Recommendations and Conclusions
The assessment aims to ensure that adaptation occurs in Sihanoukville which is planned; whereby
the local government takes the lead in adaptive responses through good policy, strategic planning
and delivering services which reduce vulnerability. At the same time, these learn from autonomous
adaptation – that which people are already undertaking by themselves – but ensuring that maladaptation is avoided where vulnerabilities are merely shifted from one group to another, meaning
that the city overall becomes no more resilient.
Priority actions should be no-regret, in the sense that they should benefit the city whether or not
climate change has the anticipated effects. Bearing this in mind, the report finds the priorities to be
as follows:
Specific Priorities/Actions
1. The Tumnup Rolok area is a key area for climate change adaptation for the following
reasons
a. Its proximity to the sea and low elevation
b. Fishery livelihoods are highly vulnerable to climate change
c. Dense population without secure tenure who often live in low-quality housing
d. Lack of reliable information on storms and weather
e. Waste management, poor drainage, sewage and marine pollution, which exacerbate
climate risks
2. Governance Issues – These do not represent a failure of the government, and should not be
interprested as such. Instead, climate change brings many new stresses and climate change
to local and national governments, and re-orients priorities. Recognising this, the following
actions are crucial
a. Finalising the urban masterplan, with significant improvements, and getting this
approved
b. Improving solid waste management through renegotiating with the private
contractor
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c. Improving sewage disposal, particularly through connecting families to the city
system
d. Improving safe water supply to the whole city, and ensuring this is year round, and
not vulnerable to floods and droughts
e. Examining the feasibility of coastal defences – mangroves in some areas and
protection of the beach
f.
Requiring buildings to make use of rain-water recycling techniques
3. Tourism – The city needs to ensure that tourism – the biggest livelihood source – is climate
resilient. Protecting the beach against loss to storms, sea level rise and erosion is vital to
protection of the industry. While loss of beach hasn’t impacted tourist arrivals yet, it will
begin to in the next five years at present rates of loss.
Investigating the possibility of other tourist attractions is also important, to diversify the
attraction of the city. This could include expansion of snorkelling and scuba diving, which can
be done in conjunction with increased protection of these resources.
These actions, as well as more ‘business orientated’ actions, could be incorporated into a
specific tourism development plan.
General Recommendations
Building capacity should be a cross-cutting theme of any work. Improving the technical capacity of
government staff, should be prioritised. Likewise, awareness levels among communities, particularly
the poorest need to be increased. For example, in offering free or subsidised connections for sewage
treatment, the city would be ill-advised to assume that individuals will accept or want this service;
the city will have to raise awareness on the benefits of sewage connection.
Gender distinctions do exist, but are not as serious as in agricultural areas. Women are primary caregivers, so they tend to be more seriously impacted by climate related health problems, even if they
are not more likely to be sufferers. Damage to, and loss of, fishing boats to storms tends to affect
men more directly, though women indirectly. In other areas, it can be expected that the impact on
men and women will be broadly similar. Women should, however, be central to project activities,
and are under represented in the current governance structures.
Climate change is a serious problem in Sihanoukville Municipality through its interaction with other,
pre-existing issues. Therefore, prioritising these becomes the main challenge for the city. Climate
change risks can be expected to become more severe in the future and if the exacerbating problems
are tackled now, the city will have greater capacity to cope with increasing climate change risks.
Finally, incorporating lessons learnt into government planning and policy, including the Commune
Investment Plans, should be a key priority, and is line with national government objectives. This may
be best done in subsequent years (say 2-3 years after publication of this report) and after the
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implementation of pilot activities, when the local authorities have a better understanding of what
the priorities are, and how best to implement them.
Annex 1 – Glossary of Key Terms
Climate change
Adaptaton – is defined as adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. This term refers to changes in processes,
practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of
opportunities associated with changes in climate. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability
of communities, regions, or activities to climatic change and variability1
Vulnerability – is defined as is degree to which people, societies or systems are susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, the adverse impacts of climate change2. Vulnerability is a function of
risk/exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
Risk – is defined as the magnitude of climate change impacts and the likelihood of these impacts
happening
Sensitivity – is defined as the magnitude of climate change impacts and the likelihood of these
impacts happening
Adaptive Capacity – is defined as the ability of people or systems to adjust in the face of climate
impacts to moderate or offset the damage caused and to take advantage of climactic changes.
Planned Adaptation – is where the government takes a lead in ‘coordinating’ adaptive responses
through policy, strategic planning, delivering services and managing projects, all of which aim to
reduce vulnerability
Autonomous Adaptation – This is where efforts to adapt to climate change are undertaken by
individuals or communities independently of the government and in an unplanned and un-strategic
manner.
Mal-adaptation – These are actions, investments of policies which increase, rather than reduce risk
and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Examples of this are where risk is merely shifted
from one social group to another or from one set of ecosystem services to another 3. Maladaptation
can occur either through (badly) planned adaptation or autonomous adaptation.
1
IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report, http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/ accessed 25/1/2011
IPCC (2008) Fourth Assessment report, p.782
3
UN-HABITAT Cities and Climate Change report, p.131
2