Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation of Livestock Systems in Kenya Nanyingi M O, Kiama S G, Thumbi S M, Muchemi G M and Bett B THEME: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ONE HEALTH 8th Biennial Scientific Conference (FVM) and the 46 th Annual Scientific Conference (KVA), Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi 25th April 2012 (12.30pm) 1 4/13/2015 1.0 Climate change impacts on livestock In 2006 and 2007, PH Burden of RVF OB resulted in 3.4 DALYs per 1000 people and household costs of about Ksh 10,000 (USD120) 3%GDP loss $500M/(2012) $1-2 B(2030) 2 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 1.2 Vulnerability and Adaptive capacity 1. Biophysical: The sensitivity of the natural environment to an exposure to a hazard 2. Social: sensitivity of the human environment to the exposure. Impact is a function of hazard exposure and both types of vulnerability Literacy Groundwater? Soil degradation Biophysical mortality Social: Technological?? Climate vulnerability, coping range and adaptive capacity Vincent (2004) 4/13/2015 3 © Nanyingi 2012 1.3 Adaptation and Mitigation ? To effectively manage vulnerability: Adaptation is to reduce sensitivity and Mitigation to reduce the magnitude of climate change impact. Adaptation research can help inform decisions by farmers and policy makers on implications over a range of timeframes to effectively integrate mitigation mechanisms Vulnerability analyses can guide governments of the investment or disinvestment decisions currently or in the near future in relation to climate-sensitive aspects. Translating adaptation options into mitigation requires consideration of a more comprehensive risk management /vulnerability framework that allows exploration of quantified scenarios. Howden et al 2007 4/13/2015 4 © Nanyingi 2012 1.4 Existing adaptation and mitigation strategies Nomadic pastoralism in search of water and pastures Designated community watering points or buffer grazing areas Traditional Early Warning Systems (TEWS) Use of emergency fodders or forage crops Diversification of species herd composition(small ruminants) Increase of herd size as security to mortality and Livestock trading Ethno-veterinary Medicine (EVM) 5 2010 Nanyingi et al., 2008; Hellmuth et al., 2009; Notenbaert et al., 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 1.5 Impediments to adaptation and Mitigation Lack of economic capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate Environmental Degradation: fragmentation and Desertification Armed conflict and out-migration (Stock theft and trade barriers) Lack of appropriate breeds of animals Ineffective livestock policies (Institutional or government ) Extreme increase in human and animal Populations (Exponential) Deplorable education levels and Religious beliefs Madisson 2010 4/13/2015 6 © Nanyingi 2012 1.6 Emerging adaptation/mitigation mechanisms Sustainable Intensification Improved feeding regimes by supplementation and climate resistant forage crops ,conservation of grasslands, rotational or adaptive grazing Production adjustments- modifying stock routings and distances Reproductive technologies for increased production and disease/heat tolerant breeds , faster growing breeds Market improvement by incentives and standardization Physical infrastructure (Roads, rails, jetty's, cooling facilities) Disease Surveillance and Management (Transboundary)- DVS Improved management of water, herd composition, stock rates Survival and livelihood diversification Diversifying incomes by mixed livestock farming systems Index Based Livelihood Insurance systems (IBLI) Madisson 2010; Herrero et al7 2010 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 2.0 Why climate change research? To understand how short-term response strategies may link to long-term options for implemented decisions do not undermine coping ability. Linking Climate change with existing dynamic policies to cope with high level of uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential climate changes and the rapidly evolving knowledge base (NSCC) Development of spatial predictive models for improved understanding and translation into accurate seasonal forecasting of future climatological data Collaborative efforts in addressing the climate change challenges can support “one health” initiatives addressing climate sensitive neglected zoonotic diseases. 8 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 2.1 Potential Research Approaches Community Participatory Epidemiology (CPE): Capacity building livestock keepers , Decision Support tools Quantifying sensitivity to climate change, societal resilience, adaptive capacity and costs of impacts of CC(Disease Burden and Economic Modelling Analysis ) Spatial and temporal predictive modelling of livestock diseases- Mapping of disease hotspots, watering areas, transhumance corridors and overlay the climate change hotspots with the food insecure hotspots Global Circulation Models (GCM) –Climate models to predict seasonal to interannual climate variability (HadCM3, ECHam4 , MarkSim) 9 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 3.0 Discussion : Vulnerable communities need financial and material support for creating alternative livelihood options with reduced dependence on livestock farming Capacity to make continuing adjustments and improvements in adaptation by “learning by doing” via targeted monitoring of adaptations to climate change and their costs, benefits, and effects. Local communities should be equipped with the necessary resources (financial, physical, social, and human) to cope and adapt, while an effective institutional capacity and supportive policy context is initiated. It is important to identify easy to implement and cost effective mitigation activities strengthening the adaptive capacities to climate change of these communities. 10 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 4.0 Conclusions : Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation policies intended to enhance broad resilience to risk or to promote sustainable development. Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) linked to biophysical, climatic, social, economic processes consistent evaluation of adaptation and vulnerability Climate monitoring and effective communication, including targeted support of surveillance of pests, diseases, directly affected by climate. Strengthening the Interaction of science and policy needs to evolve as the scientific knowledge base changes and focus attention on the importance of integrative rather than disciplinary science 11 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 5.0 Recommendations : Multidisciplinary research teams to effectively harness the substantial scientific knowledge, while retaining a focus on the values important to stakeholders in achieving relevance, credibility, and legitimacy (Climate change Working Group???) Many barriers to adaptation exist; overcoming them will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach, covering a range of scales and issues, from individual farmer awareness to the establishment of more efficient markets. Current climate variability can be tackled by accelerating development and increasing social protection while future climate risks can be checked by building adaptive capacity and enhancing climate resilience of vulnerable communities . 12 4/13/2015 © Nanyingi 2012 Thank You- Asanteni Sana Addressing climate change is “a moral commitment to the global community” mnanyingi@gmail.com 4/13/2015 13 © Nanyingi 2012