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DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF WEATHER FORECASTING
PACKAGE FOR AVIATION INDUSTRY
(A CASE STUDY OF IMO AIRPORT (SAM MBAKWE AIRPORT)
BY
--------------.
---------DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE,
FACULTY OF SCIENCE,
------------------------------
IN
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JANUARY, 2010
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this study with write up is my original
contribution and to the best of my knowledge, no part of it has been
presented to any other University.
STUDENTS NAME: ……………………………………………………….
MATRIC NO: ………………………………………………………………..
SIGNATURE: ………………………………………………………………
DATE: …...............................................................................................
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CERTIFICATION
This is to certify that -----------. carried out this project research
work under the Supervision of ---------- in the Faculty of Science, ------- ---------- during the 2008/2009 academic session.
…………………………………
CANDIDATE’S SIGNATURE
…………………
DATE
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APPROVAL PAGE
This Project has been approved in partial fulfillment for the
award of Bachelor of Science (B. Sc) Degree in Computer Science
………………………………..
------------------Project Supervisor
………………………...
Date
………………………………..
-----------------Head of Department
………………………...
Date
………………………………..
-----------------Dean Faculty of Science
………………………...
Date
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………………………………..
External Examiner
………………………...
Date
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DEDICATION
I dedicate this research to Almighty God, who had led me
through this course of study.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I wish to express my profound gratitude to God Almighty for His
inspiration and grace throughout the course and also making it
possible for me to complete this project. My special thanks to my
parents --------------, for their moral and financial support during the
course of study.
My sincere appreciation goes to all Lecturers in Computer
Science Department ------------ University and particularly to my
Supervisor ---------------. I am indeed grateful to all my friends, for
their advice and concern.
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ABSTRACT
Design and implementation of weather foresting package for aviation
industry is discussed in this research work using Sam Mbakwe
Airport, Owerri – Imo State as a case study. With its objectives
research work as follows: To help aviation meteorologists issue
accurate weather forecast. To enable aviation industry to make
decision on control based on information given etc. This research
work reviews the background and general idea of weather forecasting
which motivated me to go into the research work and problem faced
by aviation industry. Inaccuracy issue of weather forecast the use of
manual methods in weather forecast and also in storing or keeping
records and its analysis. Some of the methods used in forecasting
are as follows: Persistence method, synoptic forecasting, statistical
method, synoptic forecasting, statistical method, all narrowing or
suggesting better ways of weather forecasting.
The language used in this research was visual basic 6.0 that gave the
resultant effect of design and implementation of the weather
forecasting package that will make forecast of weather conditions
faster, accurate and reliable in our society.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
i
Declaration Page
ii
Certification Page
iii
Approval Page
iv
Dedication
v
Acknowledgement
vi
Abstract
vii
Table of Contents
vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0
Introduction
1
1.1
Background of the Study
1
1.2
Objectives of the Study
4
1.3
Statement of the Problem
5
1.4
Scope of the Study
5
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1.5
Significant of the Study
6
1.6
Limitations of the Study
7
1.7
Definition of Terms
7
CHAPTER TWO
2.0
Literature Review
9
2.1
History of Aviation
9
2.2
Definitions of Weather Forecasting
12
2.2.1 Method of Weather Forecasting
13
2.3
17
Meteorological Data
2.3.1 Coverage, Scope, Users and Uses of Metrological
Statistics
19
2.3.2 Sources and Methods of Compiling Metrological
2.4
Statistics
22
Current Methods of Data Storage Dissemination
24
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2.5
Weather Elements
24
2.5.1 Impacts of Weather Elements on Aviation Operation
27
2.6
Meteorological Elements that aid Weather Forecasting
31
2.7
Importance of the Package
32
CHAPTER THREE
3.0
System Analysis
33
3.1
System Methodology
33
CHAPTER FOUR
System Design and Implementation
4.0
System Design
45
4.1
System Goals
46
4.2
Choice of Programming Language
47
4.3
Program Design
47
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CHAPTER FIVE
5.0
Implementation Method
49
CHAPTER SIX
Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation
51
6.0
Summary
51
6.1
Conclusion
51
6.2
Recommendations
52
References
53
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CHAPTER ONE
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Every day, millions of weather – based economic decisions are
made in transportation, agriculture, power, construction, and other
sectors of the economy. Weather conditions affect the entire
economy in many ways both directly and indirectly, Better weather
forests bring economic opportunities to almost every sector of the
economy.
Weather forecasts re critical to the commercial and private
transportation sector, including airline, shipping and trucking
industries, nationally and internationally. Airlines, for example rely on
short term forecasts to best position their aircraft and adjust flight
routes.
1.1. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
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The art of weather forecasting began with early civilizations
using reoccurring astronomical and metrological events to help them
monitor seasonal changes in the weather (MISTIC House, 2008)
Around 650 BC the Babylonians tried to predict short term weather
changes based on the appearance of clouds and optical phenomena
such as haloes. By 300B.C Chinese astronomers had developed a
calendar that divided the year into 24 festivals, each festival
associated with a different type of weather.
Around 340 B.C the Greek Philosopher Aristotle wrote
Metrological, a philosophical treatise that included theories about the
formation of rain, clouds, hail, wind, thunder, lightening, and
hurricanes. In addition, topics such s astronomy, geography and
chemistry were also addressed. Aristotle made some remarkably
acute observations concerning the weather, along with some
significant errors. And his four–volume text was considered by many
to be the authority of weather theory for almost 200 years. Although
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many of Aristotle’s claims were erroneous, it was not until about 17th
century that many of his ideas were overthrown.
Throughout
the
centuries, attempts have been made to produce forecasts based on
weather lore and personal observations.
However, by the end of the Renaissance, it had become
increasingly evident that the speculations of the natural philosophers
were inadequate and that greater knowledge of the necessary to
further our understanding of the atmosphere (Wilson,2007). In order
to do these instruments were needed to measure the properties. The
atmosphere, such as moisture, temperature, and pressure. The first
known design in western civilization for a hygrometer an instrument to
measure the humidity of air was described by Nicholas Cusa (C.1401
– 1464, German) in the mid fifteenth century. Galileo Galilsi (1564 –
1642, Italian) invented an early thermometer in 1592 or shortly
thereafter, and Evangelista Torricelli (1608 – 1647, Italian invented
the barometer for measuring atmospheric pressure in 1643.
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While these meteorological instruments were being refined
during the seventeenth through nineteenth centuries, other related
observational theoretical and the technological developments also
contributed to our knowledge of the atmosphere, and individuals at
scattered locations began to make and record atmospheric
measurements. The invention of the telegraph and the emergence of
telegraph networks in the mid nineteenth century allowed the routine
transmission of weather observations to and from observers and
compilers. Using these data, crude weather maps were drawn and
surface wind patterns and storm systems could be identified and
studied. Weather observing stations began appearing all across the
globe, eventually spawning the birth of synoptic weather forecasting,
based on the compilation and analysis many observations taken
simultaneously over a wide area, in the 1860s.
With the formation of regional and global metrological
observation networks in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, more
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data were becoming available for observation based weather
forecasting. A great stride in monitoring weather at high at altitudes
was made in the 1920s with the invention of the radiosonde. Small
light weight boxes equipped with weather instruments and a radio
transmitter, radiosondes
are carried high into the atmosphere by a
hydrogen or helium – filled balloon that ascends to an altitude of
about 30 kilometers before bursting (Gaffen, 2008). During the
ascent, these instruments transmit temperature moisture, and
pressure data (Called soundings) back to ground station. Three, the
data are processed and made available for constructing weather
maps or insertion into computer models for weather prediction.
Today, radiosondes are launched every twelve (12) hours from
hundreds of ground stations all over the world.
1.2
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objectives of this research work are as follows:
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i.
To help aviation meteorologists issue accurate weather
forecast.
ii.
To enable aviation meteorologists issue weather forecast with
minimum delay.
iii.
To enable Aviation industry to make decision on flight control
based on information given.
iv.
To study and use advance programming language as logical
tool for forecasting weather conditions.
v.
To make sure of effective analysis, design
implementation,
and also provide solution to state problems in Aviation weather
forecast.
1.3
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The current method of weather forecasting in the Aviation
industry impeded by the following problems
i.
Inaccuracy issue of weather forecast
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ii.
Delay from the head quarters (meteorological services
Headquarters in Lagos) in forecasting weather conditions.
iii.
The use of manual methods in weather forecast and also in
storing or keeping recordings of previous measurements of
weather elements and its analysis
1.4
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The scope of this project will be to design workable easy to use and
reliable software package used to forecast weather conditions for
Aviation industry (Sam Mbakwe Airport).
The scope of this project design extends to the following range
and deals with the total automation of the following:
i.
The data entry section which facilitates easy entry of data
obtained from measurements of various instruments.
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ii.
The data base: the data entered is stored in a data base for
record purpose and also for easy sorting of a particular
record(s)
iii.
The weather analysis: This analyses a given record of daily
weather measurements and also permits the statistics of the
data to be viewed.
iv.
The weather forecast: The impact of weather and its remarks
is stated.
1.5
SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY
The significant of this study is to design a weather forecasting
package for Aviation industry that would provide information
concerning the weather conditions on a daily basis, and information
would be useful for
i.
Aircraft landing
ii.
Aircraft take-off
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iii.
Making decisions on route changes and inconveniences; and
iv.
Discomfort arising from altitudinal changes in flight.
1.6
LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
One of the limitations the researcher encountered was the
difficulty in getting information and relevant facts about the current
system from the staff of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET),
Imo Airport.
Another limitation encountered by the researcher is financial
constraints, especially in transport fare to the area of study for the
collection
of data and also the cost
of getting information from
relevant journals, books materials printed - out from internet, etc.
Finally, lack of relevant textbooks related to the study useful
making citations.
1.7
DEFINITION OF TERMS
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 Beaufort scale: A scale that indicates the wind seed using the
effect wind has on certain familiar objects.
 DRIZZLE: A form of precipitation that consists
of water
droplets less than 5mm.
 FOG: water that has condensed closed to ground level,
producing cloud of very small droplets that reduces visibility to
less than one km (three thousand and three hundred feet).
 LIGHTNING: Any and all forms of visible electrical discharged
produced by thunder storms.
 METEOROLOGY: The study of the phenomena of the
atmosphere and all the processes that take place in the
atmosphere and the relationships with processes at the surface
of the earth.
 RADIOSONDE: A balloon carrying instruments for measuring
conditions in the upper atmosphere.
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 RAIN: A
type of precipitation that is in the form of water
droplets larger than 0.5mm.
 SNOW: Precipitation composed of white or
translucent ice
crystals. Snow forms in cold clouds by the direct transfer of
water vapor to ice TAUNDERSTORM (or thundershower) - A
local storm, produced by a cumulonimbus cloud, and
accompanied by thunder and lightning.
WEATHER: State of the atmosphere with respect to heat or cold
wetness or dryness, clam or storm, clearness or cloudiness. Also
weather is the meteorological day today variations of the atmosphere
and their effects on life and human activity. It includes temperature,
pressure, humidity clouds, wind, precipitation and fog.