THE ARAB SPRING SYNDROME
ABSTRACT
The Arab Spring Syndrome is not a passing phenomenon. It will progressively
disrupt many authoritarian regimes over another decade or two, driven by a
communications revolution unique in history. An Internet, satellites, billions
of computers and some seven billion cell phones now allow capital and information to flow with the speed of light to all the dark corners of the planet, bypassing bureaucratic, regulatory, language and cultural barriers as they also
erode the economic and financial sovereignty of the Nation State System. (1)
This historic phenomenon allows mass overnight assembly of protesters in any
city square and has triggered the Arab Spring.
The drive for personal autonomy and freedom of expression is
genetically hard wired into every human being. Instantaneous
global communications has become the “catalyst for its release.
The genie is out of the bottle
The world is on fire and the initial chaos can persist until a sustainable form of political stability
can be forcibly reinstated. But an eventual transition to a rule of law with personal property
rights can take decades to emerge.
Extended world chaos is unacceptable and aggressive free-world
intervention now is required to prevent initial disruption if possible or to accelerate restoration to peace. Models exist to do this.
TRANSITION MODELS
Idealism has triggered the Arab Spring as individuals seek increased personal autonomy freedom
of expression and political self-governance. But the process in Libya and Syria and initially in
Egypt has been hi-jacked by Islamic terrorists seeking reversion to a Caliphate under Sharia law.
Tunisia has elected a President for the first time in its history and the Army in Egypt has now reestablished a degree of political stability and the beginnings of a secular culture.
Successful but little understood models for achieving accelerated transition
from chaos to democracy have been piloted.
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THE MARSHALL STALEMATE STRATEGY
The “Arab Spring Syndrome” will inevitably spread to other authoritarian regimes over the next
decade or two. Unfortunately, the transition has always been long, slow and tedious from dictatorship to initial adoption of a constitution and a rule of law. Legal and financial institutions take
-2many years to evolve. All repressive dictatorships and State Capital Oligarchies now are vulnerable to disruption. (3 Attaturk and Pinochet kept the “lid on” for decades under severe
military repression long enough to develop the institutional systems required. As a result,
Turkey now has developed a secular economy, with the army under civilian control. In Chili,
Pinochet was able to accept advice from University of Chicago Business School professors and
incrementally opened the economy to foreign investment. Chili now is the only self-governing
capitalistic democracy in Latin America!
However, the most effective transition process resulted from General George Marshall’s “Stalemate Strategy, which he first articulated in his Marshall Plan speech at the 1945 Harvard
Commencement. (4) Marshall pointed out that the Allies had made a serious mistake in pulling
troops out of Europe after WW I, only to see hostilities resumed. This time he urged, we must
leave our troops in Germany and Okinawa and never again allow fighting in those territories.
Several stages are involved in the transition. (Figure I )
FIGURE I
MARSHALL PLAN STALEMATE STRATEGY
FIGHTING…..EXHAUSTION…..”STALEMATE”…..NEGOTIATION….. DEMOCRACY
The transition from dictatorship to democracy is a multiple stage process. Once stalemate has
occurred however, the possibility exists that it can be indefinitely sustained with free world
help. U.S. troops in Okinawa prevented further fighting on the Pacific Rim and as a result, Japan,
Taiwan and South Korea with Marshall Plan assistance and guidance, have all morphed into selfgoverning capitalistic democracies for the first time in 5,000 years. NATO troops in Germany
maintained the Cold War stalemate. But it took about 30 years for the Berlin Wall to fall and for
the Soviet Empire then to crumble. However, greater Europe also is now at peace for the first
time in 5,000 years.
Troops in Bosnia must remain until that transition to democracy can be complete
and garrison troops in Southern Lebanon have so far protected that border with
Israel. However, both Egypt and Syria remain in chaos. ISIS Jihadist elements now
threaten the entire Middle East area. Ironically, Israel has created a de facto form
of “stalemate” in Palestine where multiple entrepreneurial new small businesses
have begun to multiply. These automatically appear whenever forms of political
stability are sustainable.
The Marshall Plan Stalemate model remains the best way to assist transition from dictatorship
to forms of democracy, but it can also be accelerated. Once political stability has been established, the critical conditions required for development of a strong middle class need to be introduced. Successful models have been developed.
-3A strong middle class is essential for sustaining a democracy
Emergence of a middle class was the intent in both Iraq and in Afghanistan. Indefinite retention
of garrison U.S troops in those countries was designed to replicate the successful Marshall stalemate-strategy with accelrated economic development.
The process can be achieved through adoption of the INPACT Model of economic development,
which has demonstrated remarkable success in several developing nations. The United States
has a particularly important role in catalyzing the process.
THE INPACT MODEL (5)
The International Program for Acceleration of Commercial Technology (INPACT) was
developed by the Technology Office in the U S. Department of Commerce during the
Reagan Administration. It was designed to assist developing countries to accelerate
their economic development through joint venture relationships between start-up
businesses in those countries and large U.S. companies.(7)
FIGURE II
A MODERN MARSHALL PLAN FOR EMERGING ECONOTheTTheTThT
The pilot model was the Bi-national R&D Foundation (BIRD-F) between the U.S. and Israel, which
was so successful that it has since become the primary job and per-capita wealth-creating
engine of the Israeli economy. Israel now has more entrepreneurs-per-capita than the U.S. The
program was so successful that it was cloned in India and in several other countries. In India it
initiated the “Bangalore Software Valley” back office support business, an annual $100 billion
worldwide operation widely copied in Poland and in other developing countries.
-4The INPACT system was modeled on the Limited Liability Corporation (LLC) form of collaboration, created in the early 1980’s by the Technology Office in the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The LLC has now become the dominant form of business incorporation in the U.S. (6) It was
designed to provide overnight incorporation of new businesses and easy access (through a
collaborative structure) to critical missing skills and resources. This often was accomplished
through partnership arrangements with larger organizations).
The LLC model pays no taxes and also protects investors from liability and antitrust concerns. In
International forms of collaboration, the model often by-passed many emerging-nation bureaucratic and regulatory barriers, while also uniquely providing the risk-capital needed. The first
step in formation of each INPACT venture begins with creation of a professionally managed
INPACT Office in each emerging country.
Special operating disciplines and organizational structures are required. (7)
A low cost operating staff needs to involve no more than 5 people, but the Director must be a
native of the country, who speaks the language and knows the culture. He should have an
advanced degree in Science or Engineering and a Master’s Degree in Business Administration. In
addition, at least 5 to 10 years of industrial experience are needed, preferably in the U.S.
The staff role is one of pro-actively searching out and screening promising investment opportunities which can be coupled with a U.S. or other developed-country company. Partners are selected for an active interest in the technology involved and with possession of complementary skills
and resources. The initial success of the PACT Program in India stimulated the World Bank to
provide a $100 million grant to immediately expand the program to ten different areas in India.
The low visibility of small start-ups tends to be non-threatening to most large
entrenched authoritarian regimes, which resent diversion of capital. The BIRD-F
model avoided this concern by establishing a $110 million private sector-managed foundation from which the annual interest was used as seed capital.
SUMMARY
The “dream” now exists for the first time in 5,000 years for the emergence of a peaceful “Global
Village” on Planet Earth. This possibility has resulted from the intermittent rise (and fall) of the
great Nations of history over 5,000 years, resulting finally in emergence of an advanced technology-driven civilization (8) based on a rule of law and personal property rights, but one now also
interconnected in real time.
Unfortunately, about 80% of world populations still live in under-developed countries. But it is
now conceivable that the centuries-old “dream of universal personalized-education and of a
literate and educated world population might finally be allowed to emerge.
-5It could be the best of all times
WW II inadvertently thrust the U.S. into the unsought Leadership of the Free world and also into
an unprecedented degree of global dominance (not only militarily, but also economically and
tech technologically), which is unique in history. In its own enlightened self-interest, U.S
leadership now may again be required to save civilization (at the 11th hour) from the barbarians.
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Hon. D. Bruce Merrifield, PhD
Former Undersecretary U.S. Department of Commerce,
Technology and Economic Affairs, Regan Administration
Bladstrom Professor of Management, Entrepreneurship
Wharton School of Business, Univ. of Pennsylvania.
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