COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
Appendix D: Demographics and other information linked to
assessment of need
Key points
Located in the heart of Scotland, West Lothian has always been at the centre of Scotland’s
economic, cultural, sporting and political life. In the last two decades the area has undergone
rapid change with almost every town and village experiencing population growth. Between
2001 and 2011 West Lothian was the second fastest growing local authority (after
Aberdeenshire) in Scotland. Population growth is set to continue over the next 20 years.
With significant in-migration from Eastern Europe and further afield in the last ten years,
West Lothian now has a more culturally and linguistically diverse population than ever
before.
The community has also experienced challenges associated with difficult economic
circumstances and restructuring of the local economy. One of the hallmarks of West Lothian
has been its resilience and capacity to bounce back from economic knocks – as exemplified
by the positive response to the closure and 1,700 job losses of VION – Halls meat
processing plant in 2013.
The Community Learning and Development Plan has been developed in the context of this
dynamic environment. The assessment of need is based on evidence gathered from a range
of statistical sources and builds on consultation with stakeholders including community
groups and individuals.
The assessment flags up a number of learning needs and opportunities which will be
addressed through the strategy and action plan. These are closely linked to and will
contribute to the delivery of the key outcomes within the West Lothian SOA. The
Assessment of need also sets out base-line data against which progress can be measured.
Key Statistics
Population (1)
Area (2)
Households (3)
Businesses (2)
Total Jobs (4)
Key Comparison data
Population growth 2001-2011 (3)
Population not white Scottish/British (3)
Population qualified to SVQ4 and above (5)
Population qualified to SVQ2 and above(5)
Population with no qualifications (5)
Residents in work (5)
Unemployment level (JSA) (6)
Unemployment level (ILO based estimate) (5)
Average Hourly Wage Levels Residents (FT) (7)
Average Hourly Wage Levels Workplaces (FT) (7)
176,140
42,733 hectares
73,761
4,500
73,100
West Lothian
10%
6.3%
40,100 34.9%
84,900 74.0%
10,600 9.2%
90,500 77.4%
2,013 1.8%
5,400 5.6%
£12.99 per hour
£12.15 per hour
Scotland
5%
8.2%
41.0%
74.8%
9.4%
72.5%
2.3%
6.2%
£13.17 per hour
£13.23 per hour
Sources: 1 National Records of Scotland mid-year estimates; 2 WLC; 3 Census 2011; 4
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
BRES ONS; 5 Annual Population Survey ONS; 6 DWP benefit claimants data; 7 Annual
Survey of Hours and Earnings ONS
Demographics
West Lothian is the 9th largest local authority by population in Scotland. In the last two
decades the area has undergone rapid change with almost every town and village
experiencing population growth. Between 2001 and 2011 West Lothian was the second
fastest growing local authority in Scotland (after Aberdeenshire) and has been the fastest
growing area in Scotland since 1991.
Population change – Fastest growing area in Scotland over last 20 year
1991
2001
2011
1991-2011
West Lothian
4,999,000
5,062,000
5,295,000
22%
Scotland
144,000
159,000
175,000
6%
Source: Census 2011
Population growth in West Lothian has been driven by both “natural increase” (more births
than deaths) and in-comers choosing to move to the area. In-migration is not a new
phenomenon. However, with significant in-migration from Eastern Europe and further afield
in the last ten years, West Lothian now has a more culturally and linguistically diverse
population than ever.
Population composition – % of population by home language
English/Scots
Polish
Other
West Lothian
94.3%
1.8%
2.9%
Scotland
93.7%
1.1%
4.5%
Source: Census 2011
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
The recent growth in population from in-migration is concentrated in the young adult age
range – 20-35 year olds. Whilst 1.9% of the total West Lothian population is of Polish
ethnicity, the proportion increases to 7% for 25 to 29 year olds and 5% for 30 to 34 year
olds.
Population 2013
WEST LOTHIAN
West Lothian percentage
Scotland Percentage
Total
0-4
5 -15
176,140 11,074 23,937
100%
6.3% 13.6%
100%
5.5%
11.6%
16 - 19 20 - 64
65 +
8,864
106,038 26,227
5.0%
60.2% 14.9%
4.8%
60.3%
17.8%
Multi Member Ward
0-4
5 -15
16 - 19 20 - 64
1 - Linlithgow
15,770
876
2,151
749
9,252
2 - Broxburn Uphall &
18,932
1,179
2,377
952
11,149
Winchburgh
3 - Livingston North
21,922
1,519
3,261
1,156
13,462
4 - Livingston South
24,677
1,474
3,846
1,448
14,923
5 - East Livingston & East
20,194
1,132
2,606
1,053
12,454
Calder
6 - Fauldhouse & Breich Valley
16,150
866
2,085
769
9,769
7 - Whitburn & Blackburn
19,501
1,159
2,432
1,011
11,308
8 - Bathgate
23,671
1,780
3,172
1,092
14,609
9 - Armadale & Blackridge
15,323
1,089
2,007
634
9,112
Source: National Records of Scotland – mid-year population estimates 2013
65 +
2,742
3,275
2,524
2,986
2,949
2,661
3,591
3,018
2,481
West Lothian has a slightly younger population profile than Scotland (i.e. a higher proportion
of the overall population is under 16 and lower proportion over 65). Recent housing
development has resulted in changing demographics at a local level - an influx of families
into Wester Inch in the Bathgate area for example is reflected in a higher proportion of the
population (62%) in the 20-64 age-group in the Bathgate Multi Member Ward.
The Population growth is set to continue over the next 20 years with 10,000 additional
houses and projected population increase of 20,000. In the next five years this growth will be
focused in core development areas (CDAs) across West Lothian – the Heartlands
(Whitburn), Armadale Station, Calderwood (East Calder) and Winchburgh.
As illustrated below the net effect of demographic change and growth over the next 25 years
is that the population over 65 will increase (by 90%) whilst other life stage groupings will
remain largely stable.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
West Lothian Projected Population Growth
250,000
200,000
65 +
150,000
20 - 64
16 - 19
100,000
5 -15
0-4
50,000
0
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Source: National Records of Scotland
The pattern of housing tenure in West Lothian is very similar to that for Scotland.
Housing Tenure
Owner occupied
Social rented
Private rented
Other
TOTAL
Source: Census 2011
West Lothian
65%
22%
12%
1%
100%
Scotland
63%
23%
13%
2%
100%
Economy and Employment
Labour supply
Population of working age in West Lothian of 115,500 has increased and is projected to be
at a similar level up to 2025 (Scotland will decrease by 1.4%). This does not take account of
changes to the retirement age.
Latest estimates indicate that 94,300 are economic active 80.4% of working age population
(compared to 77.6% for Scotland). Within the economically active population there are
79,900 employees and 7,600 self-employed.
West Lothian is not a self-contained economy or labour market. Whilst 61% of in-work
residents are employed in West Lothian, 39% commute out to mainly neighbouring areas –
the largest proportion to the Edinburgh area. It is likely that commuting into and from West
Lothian will increase over the next few years as CDA developments attract additional
residents.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
Pattern of commuting for West Lothian residents (2011 census)
Work at home or nearby
8,000
Work in other parts of West Lothian
42,000
Work in Edinburgh, Mid/East Lothian
20,000
Work in other neighbouring local authority areas
5,400
Work in Glasgow area
1,800
Work elsewhere in Scotland/UK
2,000
Source: Census 2011
8%
53%
25%
9%
2%
2%
Unemployment
 The headline Job Seekers Allowance based unemployment is currently 2,013 or
1.8% (Dec 2014). The unemployment level is at it’s the lowest since 2007.
 The International Labour Organisation based unemployment estimate is 6,000 (6.4%)
(average for the year Oct 13 to Sept 14).
 The number of working age residents claiming Key Out of Work benefits is 13,500
(11.8%) (May 2014)
 The Youth unemployment level based on 18 to 24 year-olds claiming JSA is 520
(3.6%). This is the lowest level since records began in 1994. However, the JSA
based measure does not provide a comprehensive picture – it excludes 16-17 year
olds and individuals claiming other out-of-work benefits or no benefits at all. Two
wider estimates suggest that youth unemployment might be approximately 1,700 or
13% of the overall population – slightly higher than the equivalent rate for Scotland.
With the reduction in the JSA claimant count, an increasing proportion of the remaining
jobless population will be more likely to experience multiple barriers and be more difficult to
reach. At the same time entry-level jobs now require higher developed core skills than might
have been the case previously – including for example enhanced customer and
communication skills and computing capacity. The process of job search and submitting
applications to prospective employers is now mainly IT based.
There appears to be a close relationship between housing tenure and economic status.
Housing Tenure and Economic status (2011 Census)
Population
In work
Owner occupied
94,277
69.8%
All Social rented
30,825
41.4%
Private rented
12,793
64.5%
Source: Census 2011
Unemployed
3.0%
10.9%
8.3%
Inactive
27.2%
47.7%
27.2%
Employment
Employment by occupation according to the Standard Occupational groupings shows:




33% in group 1-3 (Managerial, professional and technical)
25% in group 4-5 (Admin, skilled trades)
16% group 6-7 (Personal and customer services, sales)
26% group 8-9 (Elementary and process operators).
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
West Lothian has a higher percentage of employees in occupational groups 4-9 with below
national average in groups 1-3.
Retail, health and manufacturing are the three largest employment sectors in West Lothian.
As well as Enterprise Area Status for the food and drink sector, West Lothian can also note
key strengths and a strong presence in information and communication, life sciences,
tourism, enabling technologies such as electronics and precision engineering, wholesale,
construction and transport and storage.
Recently there has been significant growth in some of the locally based and larger SME’s
particularly in the manufacturing and production sectors, and encouraging inward investment
in Research and Design facilities in the energy sector. Lightsource Renewable Energy, a
London based solar power company, has established its Scottish head office at Alba
Campus, Livingston and the on-going development of The Heartlands Business Park at
Whitburn has secured a deal with Oil States Industries (UK) Ltd to develop a new state-ofthe-art facility at the site.
Employers Recruitment and Skills Requirements
Future recruitment and skills demands are difficult to predict. However, the recently
published Regional Skills Assessment for Edinburgh and the Lothians indicates that
employers in the area are more likely to have recruited and have experienced hard to fill
vacancies and skills shortages than the Scottish norm:




Almost three-quarters of employers in Edinburgh, Fife & the Lothians have recruited in
the past 2-3 years, including leavers from Scottish education institutions
Most employers recruiting leavers from Scottish schools, colleges and universities report
that the recruits were well or very well prepared for work
Of those employers that report leavers from Scottish education institutions to be poorly
prepared, the main reasons cited were a lack of world / life experience, poor attitude
or lack of motivation or lack of required skills or competencies
Employers in the region were more likely to report a vacancy than the Scottish
average, and had more experience of hard to fill and skill shortage vacancies
Of those employers that considered recruits from Scottish education to be poorly or very
poorly prepared for work, the main reasons cited were:
• lack of working world / life experience or maturity
• poor attitude / personality or lack of motivation
• lack of required skills or competencies.
Key messages in terms of future demand by employers include:
•
•
•
Employment in Edinburgh, Fife & the Lothians is expected to rise modestly until 2016
with the pace of employment growth quickening from then until 2022.
The trend is roughly in line with Scotland as a whole the greatest employment increases
in Edinburgh, Fife & the Lothians over the coming decade are expected to come from
health and social work, professional services and information technology
Tthe long term decline in employment within traditional industries, such as
manufacturing, mining and agriculture, is set to continue. There are also expected job
losses in public administration, defence and education
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
•
•
Replacement demand will result in over 253,000 job openings in the region over the
coming decade. These openings will occur across all types of jobs, including those that
are expected to decline in net terms
The majority of job openings in Edinburgh, Fife & the Lothians over the coming decade
will require individuals with higher level skills and qualifications. There will be limited
opportunities available to those with low or no qualifications at all.
Future Recruitment Projections
Expansion
Demand
Managers, directors & senior officials
Professionals
Associate professional & tech.
Administrative & secretarial
Skilled trades
Caring, leisure & other service
Sales & customer service
Operatives
Elementary
Total
11,800
30,500
14,000
-7,600
-5,500
12,000
-800
-4,300
-2,600
47,500
Replacement
Total
Demand
Demand
24,800
36,600
55,000
85,500
30,600
44,600
38,000
30,400
22,400
16,900
21,300
33,300
20,400
19,600
12,300
8,000
28,500
26,000
253,400
300,900
% of Total
demand
12%
28%
15%
10%
6%
11%
7%
3%
9%
100%
Source: Working Futures 2012-2022
Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning
Qualifications Jan-Dec 2013
% with SVQ4+ - aged 16-64
% with SVQ3+ - aged 16-64
% with SVQ2+ - aged 16-64
% with SVQ1+ - aged 16-64
% with other qualifications (SVQ) - aged 16-64
% with no qualifications (SVQ) - aged 16-64
Source: Annual Population Survey ONS
West Lothian
number
%
40,100
35.5%
60,900
53.9%
83,000
73.5%
95,700
84.7%
7,500
6.7%
9,800
8.7%
Scotland
%
39.4%
59.3%
73.7%
83.4%
6.2%
10.3%
The overall picture in terms of skills and qualifications suggests that:


West Lothian has a similar pattern to Scotland for basic and intermediate level
qualifications – e.g. 73.5% of adults are qualified to SVQ level 2 (compared with
73.2% for Scotland)
However, West Lothian lags behind Scotland for higher level qualifications.
The gap has been narrowing in recent years as a result of demographic change and the
outcome of interventions to promote attainment and progression into higher education.
The gap has been narrowing in recent years as a result of demographic change and the
outcome of interventions to promote attainment and progression into higher education.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
Educational Attainment
Historically, attainment levels as measured by SQA examination results lagged
behind the levels for Scotland. However, in recent years significant progress has
been made in addressing this attainment gap.
Over the 5 year period 2010 to 2014, the percentage of students attaining 3+ at
level 6 (Higher) and 1+ at level 6 (Higher) has continued to increase. The 2014
results were the highest ever achieved by students across West Lothian Council
schools.
3+ Level 6 (Higher) A-C %
2010
2011
West Lothian
24
24
Scotland
25
26
Benchmark
22
24
2012
26
27
25
2014
2013
29
29
26
30
na
na
The percentage of students attaining 1+ at level 7 (Advanced Higher) has equalled
the previous best of 2013. The percentage of students attaining 5+ level 6 (Higher)
equalled the pre-appeal level of 2013 with 2013 being the highest achieved at this
level.
School Leaver Destination Results
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
% Positive
50.0%
% Other (negative and
unknown)
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Over the last seven years, West Lothian has achieved a sustained improvement in the levels
of school leavers achieving a positive destination. The latest figures for 2013/14 leavers
show 93.0% of young people have entered a positive destination (higher education, further
education, training, volunteering or employment) - an increase of 1% on 2012/13. Since
2007/08, positive destinations have increased by 12 percentage points.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
This positive trend has been achieved against the backdrop of changing economic
circumstances. In 2013/14 19.4% of all leavers progressed into employment compared with
27% in 2005/06 reflecting the competition for a reduced number of vacancies. The increase
in positive destinations has been achieved through increases in the number and percentage
of leavers progressing into higher education, further education and training opportunities.
The council, West Lothian College and Skills Development Scotland have provided
additional opportunities - after successfully lobbying for additional college and training
programme places. The growth in progression into higher education is particularly positive
and reflects the sustained improvement in Higher results noted above.
Community Learning Infrastructure
West Lothian has well-developed learning infrastructure with 2 modern college campuses
(West Lothian College and SRUC) numerous school facilities and local learning centres.
West Lothian is within an hours travel time of 10 of Scotland’s universities and a further 10
regional colleges. Whilst community learning and development is regarded as distinct from
secondary, further and higher education, there is a significant overlap in practice between
educational sectors.
The Superfast Scotland scheme, supported by a £2.5m invest from West Lothian Council will
ensure that Superfast Broadband availability will increase from 60% of West Lothian
premises (homes and businesses) to 99% by 2017.
It is expected that take up of Superfast Broadband in West Lothian will increase from 16.5%
at present to somewhere between 30% and 40% by 2018.
These speeds in excess of 20Mbps will enable channel shift in the delivery of online learning
allowing live streaming of audio and video content and enable an increase in the amount of
Self Directed Learning using online resources.
Income and pay
Gross wage levels for West Lothian (both residence and workplace) are slightly below the
Scottish and GB levels. The gap has increased in the last year.





Approximately 19% of West Lothian working residents earn below the living wage
level of £7.65 per hour (data based on 2013-14 living wage and 2013 ASHE data).
Approximately 23% of jobs located within West Lothian pay hourly rates below the
living wage level.
Approximately 9.4 thousand West Lothian working households receive Working Tax
Credit or Child Tax Credit. The represents 19% of all working households (slightly
higher than the Scottish level of 18%)
The latest available figures show that 24% of children in West Lothian live in low
income working households, compared to 25% for Scotland and GB.
Part time jobs in West Lothian (based on 2013 data) represent 29% of total jobs
(compared with 26% in 1998 and 27% in 2008). The West Lothian level of part time
jobs is however significantly lower than the 33% recorded for Scotland and GB.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
Earnings by resident
West Lothian
Gross weekly pay full time workers
503.4
Gross weekly pay p/t workers
172.9
Hourly pay excluding overtime (f/t)
12.99
Hourly pay excluding overtime (p/t)
8.51
Source: Annual survey of Hours and Earnings
Scotland
% difference
518.2
-2.9%
169.4
+2.1%
13.17
-1.4%
8.72
-2.4%
Earnings by workplace
West Lothian
Gross weekly pay full time workers
490.6
Gross weekly pay p/t workers
196.5
Hourly pay excluding overtime (f/t)
12.15
Hourly pay excluding overtime (p/t)
8.25
Source: Annual survey of Hours and Earnings
Scotland
% difference
519.4
-5.9%
172.7
+13.8
13.23
-5.5%
8.78
-6.0%
Employment and wage levels – low paying sectors in West Lothian
number
I : Accommodation and food service activities
G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
A : Agriculture, forestry and fishing
R : Arts, entertainment and recreation
N : Administrative and support service activities
S : Other service activities
3,800
Median Lowest
wage
10%
5.3
6.62
5.46
%
15,800
22.1
100
1,800
4,900
900
0.2
2.5
6.8
1.3
8.47
8.57
8.75
8.77
10.19
6.24
6.26
6.20
6.19
6.20
Source: Annual survey of Hours and Earnings & BRES
Area based deprivation 2012 SIMD in Relation to West Lothian
A more appropriate approach to area regeneration is to focus interventions on the most
disadvantaged 20% of datazones in West Lothian and surrounding areas so that coherent
communities and localities are targeted. These areas will be prioritised through community
learning and development interventions.
COMMUNITY LEARNING AND DEVELOPMENT PL AN | 2015/18
The above map of regeneration areas shows data zones in the worst 20% in West Lothian in
red, and adjacent data-zones which also experience significant disadvantage in yellow.
April 2015
Contact:
David Greaves
Economic Development
West Lothian Council
david.greaves@westlothian.gov.uk