Task Force Water Governance for border regions Project fiche for project ideas and proposals 2nd meeting 8.11.2013 Subject: Crisis Management & Flood Control Date: 20.09.2013 Yes, I shall participate at the second meeting of the Task Force on 8th November 2013 Applying agency (authority, organization, company, River basin Commission, etc.) Institute: Department of Water, Forests and Fisheries (Departamentul Apelor, Padurilor si Pisciculturii) through the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management Postal address: 97 Bucuresti-Ploiesti Av, Sector 1, 096126 Bucharest Visiting address: 97 Bucuresti-Ploiesti Av, Sector 1 Postal code: 013686 City: Bucharest Country: Romania Telephone: 0040 722661130 E-mail: mj.adler@hidro.ro; mj.adler@yahoo.com Titel & Project proposal Category/Sector (technical, institutional, legal, policy, financial, communication, others (please specify): Crisis Management and Flood Control (FC CRIMAN) Brief description of the project: Flood is the most costly natural disaster in Romania, with the floods between 2006 and 2013 resulting in a direct cost of €40 million per year and high death toll and injuries. The 2013 floods alone caused 12 death and important losses to localities affected by flash floods. Flood can also cause loss of livelihoods due to loss of crops/livestock or homes, and disruption to industry. Mapping flood risk will give opportunity for a better land use planning and urban development. Within the frame of the Flood Directive implementation, Flood Risk Management Plans will be better fundamented and this could bring on long term sustainable solutions at the basins level, to increase security of the population and to create a better mechanisms for insuring population and goods. On short perspective, accurate and timely warning of flash floods would have significantly reduce the impact on public safety and economy, allowing authorities to make better decisions to plan evacuation and to implement flood mitigation measures. With increasing rainfall intensity and frequency and urban expansion, the flood risk is expected to rise in the future. Flood-damaged areas in Romania are broadly distributed from the Black Sea and Danube Floodplain to the mountain regions. While the basins near the coast and the Danube are relatively wellinstrumented with gauges and radar, the monitoring networks become progressively sparser for the mountain and sub-mountain river basins, leading to a less precise flood forecasts in these regions. Rainfall, and especially the surface soil moisture, are two key hydrological parameters in the system and contribute to large uncertainty in the current operational flood forecasting system. Satellite remote sensing has great potential for providing usable estimates of soil moisture and precipitation with good temporal repetition on a daily basis and on a regional and continental scale. A constellation of 3 polar-orbiting satellites (SMOS, GCOM-W, and MetOp-A) launched by Europe 1 can provide global, sub-daily estimates of soil moisture over Romania, and it is growing with nearterm mission launched by the US, Europe and Argentina. For rainfall retrievals, the currently operational Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides 3-hourly precipitation estimates and the joint mission Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation is scheduled for launch by the US and Japan in 2014. This project aims to improve the accuracy of flood hazard and risk mapping by a better land use estimation and urban areas losses by detailed imagines analysis, and on operational activities to improve the flood forecasting system operated by the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (INHGA) by integrating satellite observations of soil moisture and rainfall in the stream-flow prediction systems. This project complements the Water Information Research and Development applications between the National Administration of Meteorology (ANM) and INHGA to develop a new continuous-flow forecasting system dedicated to flash floods warnings. Objective Please formulate the project’s goals in a few sentences: To detail and complete the hazard maps available in Romania and build the risk maps based on statistical and up-dated land use information and developments in the urban areas, as well in cross border cities. To improve control for building in floodplains, of deforestation areas, and of the utilities developed in the flood hazard areas; To set up streamflow forecasting models in selected catchments across Romania and synthesize the current understanding of flooding in these relatively small basins, which are greatly exposed to flash floods and gully erosions impacting localities. To assess and improve the use of real-time satellite observations of soil moisture and precipitation over Romania. To assimilate the satellite soil moisture into land-surface model to correct precipitation data, using soil moisture estimates from satellites e.g., AMSR-E and SMOS, to correct precipitation data and gauge network using Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model. To assimilate the satellite soil moisture into the flood model for the model state correction, where satellite soil moisture data is used to correct model states in the Flood Forecast Model to produce improve streamflow rate. To facilitate cross-learning and knowledge exchange between the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, the National Administration of Meteorology and the University, and advance the development of an operational flood forecasting system at the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management. Key question your project aims to answer: Crisis Management and Flood Control (FC CRIMAN) Project will bring the needed information for land use and urban areas in floodplains for detailing the hazard and risk maps, for a better planning of the flood prevention measures integrated at the basin level (FRMP) on long perspective, and on operational basis, for a better perspective of flood forecasting model application, by better soil moisture and API estimation. This project will investigate a new methodology of blending remotely sensed observations from multiple satellite platforms to improve the model-based hydrologic predictions. To use satellite observations of soil moisture directly to initialize or calibrate a model or during data assimilation, on individual basins’ runoff-generating characteristics will result in a better forecasting system. The innovative satellite data assimilation technique aims to improve the accuracy of flood forecast 2 over Romania. Through synergetic use of continental and regional scale monitoring of environmental variables with state-of-art satellites, the INHGA can expand reliable flood forecasting services to the flash floods’ catchments where ground monitoring is limited. The success of this project aiming to improve national forecast capability will have direct, positive social, economic and environmental consequences in alleviating flood threats. This project will also enable Romania to build the National Hydrological Forecasting Service capacity in applying the space-borne remote sensing observations to operational hydrologic forecasting system. FC CRIMAN will bring also the needed information for operational planning of flooded areas rescue activities, saving lives and goods under more secure operational activities. A better conceptual data model (CDM) based on the stakeholders needs for flood management, bringing an improved knowledge of recorded damages and potential losses for risk assessment. The project will also contribute to the success of water governance through an improved interface with the wider audiences, based on a clear program to interact with the media, flood forecast operators, local authorities, and key policy makers. Beneficiaries Who will benefit from the project’s results: At the national level: - the INHGA (for improving the forecasting services), - the National Administration “Apele Romane”- ANAR (the decision makers from the operational level of hydraulic works intervention) - the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, by the Department of Water, Forests and Fisheries – DAPP (the water crisis management coordinator) At the localities level: - The National Inspectorate for Emergency Situations Management - Civil Protection services (through a better intervention planning) Public Administration system setting tasks and responsibilities to regions and other local authorities: municipalities, counties and metropolitan cities both in soil defence, with the aim of mitigating possible environmental damages caused by hydro-geological risks (floods and land slides), and in emergency planning for civil protection. For flood risk mapping and planning the beneficiary will be at the policy level, through a good implementation of the Flood Directive in Romania, under the coordination of DAPP. In the new political set-up “Strategy for flood risk management” all institutions contribute to the same national interest which, in case of flood risk management, is the environmental protection and the preservation of the population living on the Romanian territory. In conclusion, population and localities will be the end users of the results of FC CRIMAN Project.. FG CRIMAN will bring together scientists, public servants and stakeholders in developing a scalable system of flood risk maps in Romania. Transnational methodologies and models will be 3 implemented for flood risk estimation and mapping, for both gauged and ungauged sites, leading up to the proposal of flood mitigation measures and improving the warning systems. The effectiveness of different best management practices, structural and non-structural, will be examined in relation to flood prevention and low impact development. Upon project completion, local authorities of all river basins will have at their disposal, and will be trained to use, a state of the art, viable, integrated system for flood risk estimation and mitigation, which will constitute a solid basis for decision making in the area of spatial planning. The results of the project will be disseminated at the level of the central and local administrations, in a wide range of stakeholders within the river basins, by River Basin Commissions, and a strong knowledge of the flood risk network will be built. Location Where is the project located: Romanian territory and important localities for detailed risk mapping. Actors Lead partner: National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management under the coordination of ANAR and DAPP. Partners requested: Consultant companies with experience in flood risk mapping and operational activities for flood prevention as early warning systems and satellite data integration in hydrological forecasting models. Project duration What will be the duration of the project: 3 years implementation Budget estimation What is the estimated budget needed: To be discussed Type of program for funding (INTERREG V, FP7, LIFE +, etc.) Indicate which type of funding you have in mind: To be discussed Do you need help with finding the right funding? To be discussed Task Force Water Governance (TFWG), with special focus on border regions 4 Task Force Water Governance Project Development Team Phone: +31 (0)43 3897487; Postal address: P.O. Box 5700 | 6202 MA Maastricht | The Netherlands General email: taskforcewg@prvlimburg.nl Contacts: Alfred Evers: ajgm.evers@prvlimburg.nlm. +31 6 5495 6148 Harry Tolkamp: hh.tolkamp@prvlimburg.nlm. +31 6 5237 5690 Fred van den Brink: fwb.van.den.brink@prvlimburg.nl t: +31 43 3897499 5