GOLD PAN FIRE COMPLEX PROGRAMMATIC/COST FIRE REVIEW BITTERROOT NATIONAL
FOREST, U.S. FOREST SERVICE
National Oversight Review
National Incident Management Organization
4/29/2014
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Table of Contents
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 1
Purpose............................................................................................................................................ 2
Background ..................................................................................................................................... 2
Objectively look at actions taken by the Incident Management Team and the local Agency
Administrator to meet the direction provided by the Forest Service Chief .................................... 5
Assess the consideration and effectiveness of applying risk management concepts to incident
cost through the associated decisions and expenditures as an outcome ......................................... 6
Identify best business practices used on fires this past season ....................................................... 7
Identify how social and political issues factored into our decision making ................................... 8
Identify which current procedures can be enhanced or expanded .................................................. 8
Identify improvements that can be made in sharing and clarifying expectations ........................... 9
Lessons Learned- Observations and Recommendations............................................................... 10
Fire Chronology ............................................................................................................................ 17
Gold Pan Cost Appendices ........................................................................................................... 60
Objective of this Review
The primary objective of these Programmatic/Cost Fire Reviews is to evaluate and document risk
management decision processes and actions taken on incidents and their direct or indirect effect on
costs. The review and objective analysis provides recommendations to management for incidentspecific and programmatic process improvements based on comprehensive analysis of incident
documentation.
This allows for improvement of program performance, operations, evaluation of costs, and facilitates the
application of focused improvements. In addition, the reviews provide an opportunity to evaluate the
clarity of communication of the Chief’s Leader Intent and the effectiveness of implementation in the field.
The results of the reviews provide information crucial to the well-established learning environment and
continued improvement in fire management in the U.S. Forest Service.
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Review Objectives:
Objectively look at actions
taken by the Incident
Management Team and the
local Agency Administrator
to meet the direction
provided by the Forest
Service Chief
Asses the consideration and
effectiveness of applying risk
management concepts to
incident cost through the
associated decisions and
expenditures as an outcome
Identify Best Business
Practices Used on Fires This
Past Season
Identify How Social and
Political Issues Factored Into
Our Decision Making
Identify Which Current
Procedures Can Be Enhanced
or Expanded
Identify Improvements That
Can Be Made In Sharing and
Clarifying Expectations
Review Team Members:
Shari Miller, AD Fire
Planning & Budget, Northern
Region
Jeff Shinn, District Ranger,
Nez Perce-Clearwater
National Forest
Shane Greer, AD Risk
Management, Rocky
Mountain Region
Robert Sanders, DFMO,
Pacific Southwest Region
Will Briggs, DFMO, Rocky
Mountain Region
Purpose
On December 20, 2013, James Hubbard, Deputy Chief for State and
Private Forestry (SPF) issued a letter requiring review of several large
Fiscal Year 2013 wildfires. The Washington Office Fire and Aviation
Management (FAM) staff, with input from the Northern Region Fire
and Aviation Management Director determined that the Gold Pan
Complex would be reviewed. Fires were selected based on complexity
and national significance. The designated fires represent a cross
section of our risk management and investment performance, which
includes financial, size, and oversight complexity. Specific details were
sent to the individual Regions/Forests prior to each review. The
reviews were conducted using the 2013 Risk Decision Framework.
On January 17, 2014, Tom Harbour, Director of Fire and Aviation
Management delegated Dan Kleinman to be the Team Leader for the
2013 Programmatic/Cost Fire Review for the Gold Pan Complex that
occurred on the Bitterroot National Forest in Montana. The purpose of
the review is to learn from those who were involved and share those
lessons learned.
Background
The team reviewed numerous documents located on the Forest, within
the Gold Pan ftp site, and on InciWeb. Documentation that was
reviewed included: Incident Action Plans (IAPs); WFDSS; Incident
Status Summaries (209’s); fire maps; and cost summaries. On-site
interviews were held in Hamilton, Montana February 19-21, 2014.
This included some phone interviews which carried into the following
week. Those interviewed included the: Forest Supervisor; Retired
Forest Fire Management Officer (FFMO); Acting Forest Fire
Management Officer (FFMO); District Ranger; District Fire
Management Officers (DFMO) and Assistant Fire Management Officer
(AFMO); Incident Commanders (IC) and Operations Section Chiefs
(OSC) from the three incident management teams; Forest Service Law
Enforcement; Sheriff’s Office personnel; Montana Department of
Natural Resource Conservation (DNRC) personnel; and Rural Fire
Department (RFD) personnel.
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Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
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U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Review Team Members
Continued:
Chad Olson, AFFMO,
Intermountain Region
Reggie Day, DAFMO, Idaho
Panhandle National Forest
Bertram Smith, Helitack
Squad Leader, Flathead
National Forest
The review team found that there were many factors that influenced
the outcome of the Gold Pan Complex. It was a complex incident
located in difficult terrain with little fire occurrence in the immediate
area. The surrounding area has a long history of large ecological
beneficial wildfires. These past burns were anticipated to have a
cumulative effect of modifying fire growth and checking fire spread on
portions of the Gold Pan Fire thus providing managers with options in
addressing protection strategies. After five days of benign fire
behavior, condition changed rapidly with significant fire increase.
This was based upon the Energy Release Component (ERC) climbing
into the 97th percentile and decadent and available fuel conditions.
The review team focused on the objectives of the review and was cognizant of not being
influenced by hindsight bias when reviewing documents or interviewing people. The team
had open discussions with personnel regarding the incident, their interactions, and what
they thought was important to share as lessons learned.
Critical Values at Risk
Values at risk in the fire area as identified by Forest Service, cooperators/partners, and
stakeholders included: outfitter/guide operations (hunting units); road access for
recreational use (Magruder Road); cultural sites; threatened, endangered and sensitive
species and habitat (bull trout and steelhead); recreation sites; several Forest Service
Administrative sites including historic ranger station; lookouts; private structures and
property; public/cooperator/partner relationships; and an active timber sale. Resource
values, such as wildlife habitat, watershed values, aesthetics, etc. were identified by agency
personnel. The communities of Painted Rock and West Fork are located a distance from
the fire, they were not directly threatened.
Gold Pan Fire - Summary of Actions
The Gold Pan Fire (MT-BRF-013039) was ignited by lightning on Tuesday, July 16, 2013
and was declared 100% contained on October 3, 2013 after burning 43,429 acres in Idaho
and Montana on the Bitterroot National Forest (NF).
The fire was detected and put into monitor status on July 16, 2013. The rapid growth of the
Gold Pan Fire in acres on July 21, 2013 led to the order of a Wildland Fire Management
Team (WFMT) led by Diane Hutton which assumed command on July 29, 2013 and also
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included the Goat Fire to make this a complex. The Gold Pan Fire was initially managed for
a long duration event but rapidly progressed in complexity and due to the Organizational
Needs Assessment (ONA) determined the need for a Type 1 Incident Management Team
(IMT). The rapid growth in size, complexity, and the presence of communities and private
land out ahead of the fire resulted in more of a point protection strategy with multiple
transitions of IMTs.
Greg Poncin’s Northern Rockies Type 1 IMT transitioned and assumed command of the
Gold Pan Complex on July 31, 2013 and continued with the long-term planning strategy and
point protection until transitioning back to (Hutton’s WFMT).
Diane Hutton’s WFMT transitioned and assumed command on August 13, 2013 and over
the next few operational periods a dry cold front would move through the fire area rapidly
increasing the acreage and starting two additional fires; the Nez Peak Fire and the Thirteen
Fire which would be added to the complex. The Gold Pan Fire triggered multiple
Management Action Points (MAPS) which required consideration for implementing Stage 1
and possibly Stage 2 evacuation for the residents of the West Fork of the Bitterroot Valley
as well as significantly increasing the area closure. The Nez Peak Fire was now within ½
mile of the wilderness boundary close to triggering multiple MAPS as well. Due to this it
required a substantial increase in critical suppression resource needs (aviation, crews and
overhead) to implement the contingency plan to keep the fire out of the wildland urban
interface along the West Fork of the Bitterroot Valley. This new complexity determined
that another Type 1 IMT needed to be ordered.
Doug Turman’s Northern Rockies Type 1 IMT transitioned and assumed command on
August 19, 2013 and took the fire until it was released to a Type 3 IMT on September 1,
2013.
Jeff Handel’s Type 3 IMT transitioned and assumed command on September 1, 2013 the
Nick and Steep Fires were added to the complex. On September 13, 2013 the Gold Pan
Complex was turned back over to the local unit.
The Gold Pan Complex was contained on October 3, 2013, eighty days after ignition.
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The
following
are key
observation
s and
correspondi
Gold Pan Complex Fire
Gold Pan Complex Fire
Observation by Objective:
The following are key observations and corresponding
lessons learned organized by the four objectives of the
review.
Objectively look at actions taken by the Incident Management Team and the local
Agency Administrator to meet the direction provided by the Forest Service Chief
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Pre-season meetings with Forests and Cooperators have proven to be beneficial to
identify approaches to common issues. Additional ways to gain insight is an after
action review post season or post fire. The cooperators in this area are very
appreciative for efforts taken by the Forest in this area.
Strategic Risk Assessment was completed by the Type 2 team and forest personnel.
The five rights were incorporated into this process.
Good engagement with the forest pre-season. Chief’s direction was explained by the
Forest Service to a large group of RFDs, DNR and county official’s pre-season. This
pre-season engagement was also driven by two previous fires from 2012 (Mustang
and Crandel).
Pre-season engagements between the Bitterroot NF and the county sheriff’s
department along with emergency services, county commissioners and RFDs. No
simulations conducted but a clear understanding of priorities discussed.
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During the season updates are given to the sheriff’s department on seasonal
outlooks, fire danger and potential along with updates on local fire activity.
The employees, cooperators and the adjacent Forest are impressed with the well
thought out plans for infrastructure protection, contingency and long-term strategy
that was developed by the two teams that were in place to protect values at risk.
The completeness and implementation of these plans are excellent. These
protection plans have been an asset when used by the adjacent Forest when
managing fires in this area especially on boundary fires. Consider expanding these
to the entire Bitterroot NF if not already in use.
Daily during action review was conducted with the District Ranger and the IMT with
the discussion topic of risk management.
Early integration of a Long Term Fire Analyst (LTAN)/ Fire Behavior Analyst
(FBAN) can create very helpful products to enhance and or stimulate informed
conversation in regard to strategy, the decision making process, and risk
management objectives. Early in the Gold Pan fire there was some friction and
delays of this integration. This understanding of the importance and acceptance
evolved rapidly.
Continued monitoring and adjustments, as situations/behaviors changed, aided
incident personnel and Agency Administrators (AA) with communicating risk
informed strategies to engage stakeholders. Furthermore, LTAN/FBAN products
were used, as a valuable tool, to help educate the public on long-term
effects/predictions.
Pre-season planning/meetings involving stakeholders/cooperators were important
to enhance a common understanding of roles and responsibilities.
Pre-season planning/meetings involving stakeholders/cooperators were important
to communicate a common understanding of the values at risk.
During the initial stages of the incident, the Forest Fire Staff/AA engaged local Fire
Warden involvement which led to enhanced coordination with outlying Rural Fire
Districts, and enabled a good conduit for information sharing with local county
commissioners.
County Fire Warden served as a Liaison for the IMT’s, which again enhanced local
coordination with Rural Fire Districts.
This embedded two-way risk
communications, and solicited input/ownership into the strategy with the IMT.
Assess the consideration and effectiveness of applying risk management concepts to
incident cost through the associated decisions and expenditures as an outcome
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Through the decision-making process cost was a consideration. The costs for
crews/line personnel versus aircraft appeared to be balanced proportionally.
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Cost share opportunities were identified and agreed upon in advance in anticipation
that the fire could reach other jurisdictions.
Values at risk and expectations were clearly identified between the Bitterroot NF
and the County Fire Warden. This led to decisions on expenditures based on the
potential values at risk.
Money spent was primarily on aviation assets; however it was justified on the threat
to the surrounding communities.
Although this was a wilderness incident, and may be perceived as expensive, the
overall outcome had many successes. The outcome of this fire was at a lower than
average cost per acre for past wilderness fire’s on the Forest. There also was a close
attention to sound risk management with no major injuries or death, many acres
treated, and contingency barriers in place for future incidents which contributed to
the overall success.
Identify best business practices used on fires this past season
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The development and the implementation of the Northern Region Coordinating
Group’s (NRCG) Decision Document Template which outlines roles and
responsibilities (including financial responsibilities) for wildland fire, structure
protection, structure suppression, evacuations, road/highway management, and
search and rescue (see Lessons Learned page 10).
Direction from the Regional Office was clear on fires in the wilderness; however
WFDSS became a barrier and was only navigated successfully after a WFDSS
“expert” was assigned.
Risk management dialog was well received by the local fire districts and the public
during the community meetings.
There was sound, clear, and concise communication used with interaction with DNR.
A solid working relationship with DNR facilitated positive agreements on equipment
and personnel.
Joint news releases between the forest and sheriff’s department delivered
consistent messages on area closures, road closures, and conditions.
Conduct pre-season activities with stakeholder to share understandings of
firefighter risks, identification of values at risk, and risk/versus gain strategies.
Large contingency lines that were established will provide strategic/tactical
strongholds for years into the future, reducing future expenditures and exposure to
incident responders.
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Identify how social and political issues factored into our decision making
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Social and political concerns were addressed through a number of venues preseason.
Concerns identified when the fire had potential to leave the wilderness and create
smoke impacts to surrounding communities. These concerns along with fire growth
and potential drove decisions to order IMTs.
Public safety, social, and political concerns were a hot topic for consideration
throughout the duration of the fire.
The concern for fire threatening the community of Painted Rocks was a factor for
decision making.
Stakeholders were actively engaged in the process.
Wilderness values were a major consideration.
Outfitter camp located within the planning area created some level of distraction
from decision making but ultimately did not influence decisions.
Public safety and values at risk drove decisions on closures and potential
evacuations.
Social, political issues faced on this fire were impacts of smoke on the community
and interaction with the RFDs. Community meetings were conducted however they
were focused just on the communities adjacent to the fire. The valley at large was
not receiving the same information on the fire and what “success of the fire looked
like.”
Two RFDs at the beginning of the season did not want to sign up with DNR who
administers agreements and payments. Because of the lack of state protection
around the Bitterroot NF, DNR is not as engaged with all the RFDs in the
surrounding area. In addition, it was noted previously to the fire that the two
departments had biases with the forest. To mitigate these issues with the RFDs, two
liaisons were identified from theses departments to help build a positive working
relationship and to engage the RFDs in the roles and responsibilities with the FS.
These two liaisons, along with the county fire warden were also utilized by the IMTs
to assist coordination between the IMTs and RFDs.
Identify which current procedures can be enhanced or expanded
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Integrating the long-term planning process into the scope of Type 1 and Type 2
IMTs would be a benefit for future wildfire management.
It was difficult to shift from the 2012 direction in the Chief’s Letter to the 2013
direction. It was noted that the 2013 was better received and welcomed compared
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to the 2012 letter. A consistent direction/message would be easier to implement
and carry out.
Conduct pre-season simulations between cooperators and the Bitterroot NF at the
beginning of the year would enhance understanding and roles between agencies.
Continued and enhanced pre-season coordination and communication needs to
continue. With the many key retirements within the Forest organization, incoming
replacements need to develop existing relationships with stakeholders, and carry
forward what their predecessors have successfully built.
Identify improvements that can be made in sharing and clarifying expectations
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Preparation for in-briefings was cited by the Forest FMO as an area that was
enhanced during this fire. Pre-season preparation on delegations for incidents
proves to be invaluable.
Forest Service Law Enforcement noted that they needed to be engaged with the fire
prior to the IMTs arrival. They felt slightly behind the power curve.
Gold Pan Complex
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Lessons Learned- Observations and Recommendations
National Priority
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Gold Pan Fire Positive Outcomes
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Ecological benefits, restoration to over 43,000 acres.
No major injuries or fatalities.
No structures destroyed.
Minor damage occurred to one outfitter base camp.
Cost of restoration was less than $300 per acre.
Stakeholder relationship tested and improved with volunteer fire
departments for communities of Painted Rock and West Fork.
Good closure plan developed.
Great coordination with Forest Service Law Enforcement and County
Sheriff’s personnel.
Fuel break completed west of private lands and south along Took Creek
Saddle east of Bare Cone Lookout. The treatments varied from hand thinning
10-20 feet of road embankment to mechanical clippers along stretches of
roadways for a total of 35.5 miles.
A partial fire barrier at the head of Blue Joint Drainage of 3,388 acres.
The Northern Region and their interagency partners developed the NRCG Decision
Document Template which outlines roles and responsibilities (including financial
responsibilities) for wildland fire, structure protection, structure suppression,
evacuations, road/highway management, and search and rescue. The Decision
Document Template may be utilized to document these types of decisions when
there will not be a cost share agreement, and allows us to document financial
responsibilities and significant decisions made with agencies that would not
normally be party to a cost share agreement, such as the Department of
Transportation or the Sheriff’s Department. The Decision Document Template is
also used to define selected cost share methodologies agreed upon by agency
administrators. The use of this template has allowed them to streamline our cost
share agreements to only include the basic information needed by agency payment
centers. Once a cost share agreement is completed, it becomes an addendum to the
Decision Document Template. One of the major advantages to using the Decision
Document Template is that filling out the template and identifying responsible
parties assists agency administrators with the decision making and negotiation
process.
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Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)
Observations: Six WFDSS Decisions were published. However, the WFDSS process
didn’t appear to have supported or informed the first three decisions but, rather, to
merely have documented it as they did not include any fire behavior analyses (7/17,
7/22, and 8/1), an Organizational Needs Assessment (7/17 and 7/22), or the 10
Risk Questions (7/17). Forest personnel expressed frustration with the lack of user
friendliness, suggesting the system should indicate the user’s progress through a
step-wise process (i.e. the progress bar on the Amazon.com site when placing an
order). It was also suggested that Line Officers need an improved understanding of
how to use the WFDSS information to make their decisions.
Recommendations:
1. Increase user friendliness by inclusion of user progress indicator, ensuring
all required steps are included in left-to-right flow, and automatically include
completed fire behavior analyses.
2. Write a 1-2 page Line Officer guide on use of WFDSS information, such as fire
behavior analyses, ERC graphs, Stratified Cost Index (SCI) estimates, Relative
Risk Assessments, and Organization Assessments, and considerations for
making and summarizing their decision, based on this information (reference
WFDSS Lesson 17 and WFDSS Help).
Tactical Actions/Leader’s Intent
Observations: Some interviewees commented that the tactical actions taken within
the wilderness to slow fire spread exposed firefighters to risk and/or increased
costs unnecessarily, due to direction to keep the fire in the wilderness. Because the
wilderness boundary was not defensible, based on fuels and topography, this
direction seemed inconsistent with fire behavior analyses and objectives regarding
cost effectiveness and exposure.
Recommendation: Ensure Leader’s Intent, i.e. Rationale in WFDSS Decision is
consistent with the supporting information and clearly understood by the IMT.
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Lack of perceived understanding of the value of an LTAN by some of the Type 1 IMT
led to a small degree of friction and a delayed integration of long-term planning
tools. It was suggested that better understanding/coordination needs to occur with
IMT staff early. The lesson learned was that this combined efforts proved to be
successful.
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Effective pre-season communication about risk, values at risk, and firefighter
exposure with stakeholders, partners and adjacent units was critical to the success
during the incident.
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A suggestion from one of the IMTs is for the Agency to provide a risk management
process that is identified and understood. How do we consistently move forward as
an organization within risk management, within a subjective process, and limited
with tools?
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Integration of long-term planning and modeling skills into existing IMTs proved to
be highly beneficial. In this situation the Type 2 Incident Commander (ICT2)
became the Deputy IC for the combined team. With the long-term plan
development, both teams entered into a Strategic Risk Assessment process. The
Type 1 personnel became directly involved with this process with experienced
planners Strategic Operational Planner (SOPL/LTAN). This was a great learning
opportunity for the Type 1 personnel and a benefit for both organizations.
Regional and Local Priority
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The initial decision and course of action to allow the Gold Pan Fire to burn to
accomplish resource objectives was an important topic that many of the personnel
interviewed were eager to discuss. It appeared the decision model used was
inadequate and didn’t fit the complexity of the environmental conditions and the
values at risk. The decision model was closed and lacked the inclusion of decision
support tools and subject matter expert collaboration and advice.
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There were six WFDSS decisions that were published. The WFDSS process didn’t
appear to have supported or informed the first three decisions. In the first three
published decisions, it appeared to have been used primarily to document the
decision not to support or provide information for the decisions as they did not
include any fire behavior analyses (7/17 and 7/22), Organizational Needs
Assessment (7/17 and 7/22), or the 10 Risk Questions (7/17).
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This appears to be an intuitive decision model versus an analytical methodology
that allows for the inclusion of information that is value based, includes a risk
management analysis, evaluates criteria, and develops alternatives to choose from
for the decision process. The model used did not allow for the contemplation of end
state goals, there were no alternatives to select from, and lacked a strategic risk
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assessment process. Shortly after the IMT order, the Regional Forester rescinded
authority for the District Ranger to be the decision maker on allowing fires to have
objectives other than full suppression.
International Seminar on Protected Area Management Visit to the Bitterroot
National Forest July 25 -28, 2013
Observations: The Seminar was sponsored by the U.S. Forest Service International
Programs and included University of Montana coordinators. Approximately thirty
seminar attendees were from around the world, including Russia, Brazil, Africa,
India and other countries. The purpose of this international visit was to learn about
wilderness management on the Bitterroot National Forest and hear from local
business owners and outfitter guides. The plan was to spend four days July 25
through July 28, 2013 camped at the Magruder Ranger Station in the Selway
Bitterroot Wilderness. Due to the approaching fire, the group was evacuated on July
27, 2013 due to the approaching fire. Some review interviewees stated that the
presence of this group was a distraction to key a forest individual in managing the
fire and performing their duties. It was also stated that, on a given day, the presence
of this group in the fire environment concerned operations personnel assigned to
that area. The operations personnel felt an increased sense of risk with the situation
and that the international group should not have been allowed at that location, due
to the fire’s location and behavior. It was also stated that the risk exposure to the
international group was inappropriate.
Recommendation: In the future, any special group activities, as it relates to wildfire
management needs to be well thought out. Specifically, risk versus gain, potential
learning versus the exposure to risk, and management of a special group versus the
disruption to wildfire management should be considered.
Historical Fires/Fire Behavior
Observations: Some interviewees stated that fires do not cross the Selway River.
Additionally, past fire scars were not expected to burn, as reflected in the 7/19 fire
behavior analysis, and, in 2012, it was not anticipated that the Mustang Fire would
burn through past fire scars and onto the forest. In hindsight, one interviewee
postulated the 1000-hour fuels in the fire scars was carrying fire, due to early fall
freezing and quick spring drying. This is consistent with the 1000-hour fuel
moisture and Energy Release Component (ERC) values at the West Fork RAWS
which were both approximately 15% below average and approaching the 10th and
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90th percentiles, respectively, early in the season (average lows/highs typically
occur in mid-August).
Recommendation: Consider fire danger indicators and short and long-term
weather to avoid over-confidence in conventional wisdom and seek input from a
variety of sources.
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The work to expand the use of social media was increased to keep the public and
stakeholders informed on this incident. Some of the examples were Facebook and
Twitter. This was noteworthy and an area that the FFMO concentrated his efforts
during the fire.
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During the first team transition, some cross-training occurred with the Type 1 and
Type 2 IMT that specializes in long-term planning to create a long-term plan to deal
with the Gold Pan Fire. The consensus was that with this approach created a plan
that capitalized on the efforts of both teams and created an applicable long-term
plan. Also in this organizational integration, the IC Type 2 became the Deputy IC
that provided cohesion which joined the two IMTs as one.
Road Closures
Observations: Several times in different interviews with employees, cooperators,
and the adjacent forest, the road corridor within the Gold Pan Fire perimeter in
relation to closures was brought up as an issue. Closures need to be coordinated
with the neighboring forest as they occur. Closures maybe occurring on one
entrance but the neighboring forest may not have closed their side of the road. This
could lead to potential public safety issues and inconsistent messages about the
threat. Throughout the initial stages of the incident, road guards were driving
through the fire area, and used on the far side of the incident. This resulted in the
road guards being in and out of communication. It was determined to be too
dangerous, so the decision was made to barricade those locations. These concerns
were considered and acted upon by implementing smaller closure areas versus one
or two large areas which aided with coordination/communication with the sheriff’s
department and the public.
Recommendations: Consider developing a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to
identify management action points, communications, and timeframes to assist in
future fires occurring in this area. It was suggested that the Forest should consider
hard gate closures at strategic locations, instead of using road guards. The hard
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closures could be in place and used for future incidents, thus reducing exposure of
the guards and quicker facilitation of the closure.
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During the 2000 fire season, several “close calls” and near entrapments occurred
while the sheriff’s department was engaged in public evacuations. Because of this,
the Bitterroot NF provided the sheriff’s department with yearly refreshers and fire
shelter training up until 2008. The Bitterroot NF and the sheriff’s department plan
to incorporate this training once again.
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The Agency Administrator(s) interaction with IMT led to some confusion as both
District Ranger and Forest Supervisor were interacting with the IMT. This was
identified early and the Forest Supervisor and District Ranger attempted to correct
this situation. This situation was improved upon but continued at times, too a much
lesser extent, through the history of the fire.
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Clarity of communication and expectation with the District Ranger was needed as
well as a better understanding of the District Ranger’s expectations and relationship
with DFMO. An internal After Action Review (AAR) would have been beneficial but
did not occur. The disagreement between the DFMO and District Ranger became as
stated an “incident within an incident.”

A post forest or stakeholder AAR was not conducted. This process is imperative for
a learning organization to improve and be successful.

Pre-season engagement with partners and cooperators continued to solidify
relationships and developed continuity.

With many key retirements within the forest’s organization, a continued and robust
effort needs to continue with incoming replacements, to help foster stakeholder
relationships.

IMTs utilizing two liaisons from the local RFDs helped alleviate concerns from fire
districts and include them in the decision-making. This built rapport with the local
RFDs and clarified expectations with all parties.

Continue to engage in pre-season meetings between the DNR, the Bitterroot NF and
local rural fire districts. Roles and responsibilities of all cooperators locally should
be clearly identified through pre-season planning and exercises which would lead to
15 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
a better understanding of the protection agreements and Annual Operating Plans
(AOPs).

Although good pre-season meetings were held, it was recommended that table
top/simulation exercises would be better. The benefits of these types of activities
include understanding roles and responsibilities and authorities of the different
agency entities. It gives participants an opportunity to exercise those roles and
create understandings.

Although yearly AARs had been conducted with agency employees and
stakeholders, the review team is recommending that a per-incident AAR be
completed.

Aviation resources were shared with the local unit for initial attack and with other
wildfires in the general area which proved to be highly effective and efficient.

With direction from the unit there were deliberate efforts by IMTs to work with
cooperators to continue to improve relationships.
16 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Fire Chronology
Date
7/16
7/17
%
0
0
Command
Initial Attack
Initial Attack
Acres
1/10
1
+
7/22
7/23
7/25
7/27
0
0
0
0
SOPL
T3 S. Olpin
T3 S. Olpin
T3 S. Olpin
2,000
3,081
4,295
7,175
1999
1081
1214
2880
7/28
0
T3 S. Olpin
8,900 1725
7/29
0
T2 D. Hutton
13,212 4312
7/30
0
T2 D. Hutton
14,012 800
7/31
0
T1 G. Poncin
15,012 1000
8/1
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,318 1306
8/2
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,330 12
8/3
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,342 12
8/4
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,342
0
8/5
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,342
0
8/6
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,358
16
8/7
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,412
54
8/8
0
T1 G. Poncin
16,959 547
8/9
0
T1 G. Poncin
17,116 157
8/10
0
T1 G. Poncin
17,132
16
8/11
0
T1 G. Poncin
17,149
17
8/12
0
T1 G. Poncin
17,163
14
8/13
0
T2 D. Hutton
17,182
19
8/14
0
T2 D. Hutton
17,258
76
8/15
0
T2 D. Hutton
18,059
801
T2 D. Hutton
21,315 3256
8/16
0
Comments
Natural ignition
Unburned mixed conifer
stand
Significant fire growth
Evaluate MAP’s
Cont. evaluate MAP’s
10 VAR, Hutton WFMT
transition, Goat Fire
Significant run toward
Magruder Road
97th percentile, extreme
fire, prep VAR
Develop long- term plan, no
inversion, Magruder road
Transition, suppression
activities, extreme fire
Precip occurred, prep
Magruder road
2 injuries, minimal fire,
mop-up Magruder road
Lack of safety zones, longterm plan complete
Increased fire, cont.
contingency options
Poncin assumes command
Hutton shadow, mop up
Minimal fire, poor access,
potential burnout
Burnout Magruder road,
burn plans for divisions
Contingency lines complete,
night shift
Poor safety zones, minimal
fire, develop rehab plan
Red Flag warning, holding
and mop up Magruder rd.
Red Flag warning, 30 miles
fireline to date
Demob, mop up, warming
and drying trend
Transition, dry cold front,
mop up holding continues
High Haines, active fire,
Thirteen and Nez Peak
Fires detected and added to
Complex
310 VAR, Red Flag, active
fire, spotting, Nez Peak Fire
active
Red Flag, Haines 6, plume
17 | P a g e
Person
0
1
Est. Cost
n/a
500
15
1
4
3
20,000
20,000
25,000
126,000
111
106,250
110
234,734
220
572,298
309
945,000
363
1.4 mil
422
1.9 mil
446
2.4 mil
456
2.9 mil
464
3.4 mil
492
3.7 mil
477
4.2 mil
476
4.7 mil
382
5.2 mil
346
5.5 mil
266
5.8 mil
278
6.1 mil
191
6.4 mil
164
6.6 mil
172
6.8 mil
209
7.0 mil
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
8/17
0
T2 D. Hutton
26,169 4854
8/18
0
T2 D. Hutton
27,034 865
8/19
0
T1 D. Turman 28,332 1298
8/20
0
T1 D. Turman 29,737 1405
8/21
0
T1 D. Turman 31,827 2090
8/22
0
T1 D. Turman 34,028 2201
8/23
0
T1 D. Turman 34,992 964
8/24
0
T1 D. Turman 35,043 51
8/25
0
T1 D. Turman 37,138 2095
8/26
0
T1 D. Turman 37,927 789
8/27
0
T1 D. Turman 38,498 571
8/28
0
T1 D. Turman 39,428 930
8/29
0
T1 D. Turman 39,549 121
8/30
0
T1 D. Turman 39,982 433
8/31
0
T1 D. Turman 40,188 206
dominated fire, MAP’s
breached possible evac,
WUI concerns, continuous
fuel bed, increase planning
area
Spotting, plume dominated
fire, mop up Magruder
road, VAR prep
Red Flag Warning Turman’s
IMT assumed command at
0600
Large area closures as fire
continues to advance
towards urban interface,
Nez Peak Fire is under Full
Suppression, due to safety
only aerial resources will
be utilized
Eastern most edge of fire
has crossed into Montana
Moderate fire activity with
group tree torching, short
crown runs and spotting
Active in Vance Cr.
sustained crown runs
moderate range spotting
Fire spotted across the
Cayuse Creek drainage,
became established
Forecasted S winds could
continue to push Gold Pan
E/NE likely joining with the
Nez Peak Fire
Slight reduction in closure
area became effective today
Due to yesterday’s
lightning, Gold Pan
resources assisted
Bitterroot Forest with IA
Minimal spread anticipated
due to this morning’s
precipitation
Inactive in am, dry
thunderstorm developed
over fire area in pm
increasing fire behavior
Crews continue to keep
travel routes clear, protect
infrastructure
Incoming T3 org. shadowed
Turman’s team today, Nick
and Steep Fires added to
complex
18 | P a g e
248
7.3 mil
233
7.6 mil
280
8 mil
274
8.3 mil
270
8.5 mil
262
8.8 mil
260
9.1 mil
285
9.4 mil
276
9.7 mil
270
9.9 mil
254
10.1 mil
247
10.2 mil
242
10.4 mil
182
10.6 mil
139
10.8 mil
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
9/1
0
T3 J. Handel
42,319 2131
9/2
0
T3 J. Handel
42,578 259
9/3
0
T3 J. Handel
42,690 112
9/4
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 59
9/5
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/6
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/7
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/8
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/9
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/10
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/11
0
T3 J. Handel
42,749 0
9/12
0
T4 A. Walters
42,927 178
9/19
0
T4 A. Walters
43,125 198
10/31
100
T4 A. Walters
43,429 304
Jeff Handel’s T3 team took
command at 0600 today
Fire crossed Blue Joint to
the E, has potential to
trigger MAP11, includes
consideration of Stage 1
evacuations
Most of area received light
rain
Utilized Type 1 helicopter
to check fire spread East of
Blue Joint creek
Relatively inactive due to
widespread rain, low
temps, higher RH’s
Magruder Corridor Rd.
#468 was re-opened with
no restrictions. Closure
area was reduced.
Relatively inactive FB
today, used Type 1
helicopter to check fire
spread in Jack the Ripper
Creek.
Hell's Half Lookout tower
was unwrapped.
Relatively inactive today
due to recent widespread
rain and today's lower
temps, higher RH’s, and
cloud cover.
Rehabilitation operations
will continue.
Handline rehabilitation has
been completed.
The fire will be turned back
to the local unit on Friday,
09/13/2013 at 12:00 pm.
Recon and Monitor fire
activity in Blue Joint and
Jack the Ripper
Growth Potential Low
19 | P a g e
77
10.9 mil
78
10.9 mil
78
11 mil
76
11.1 mil
67
11.1 mil
66
11.2 mil
64
11.2 mil
76
11.3 mil
70
11.3 mil
62
11.3 mil
42
11.4 mil
9
11.4 mil
9
11.4
1
11.8 mil
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Gold Pan Complex
Incident Name
Gold Pan
Goat
Thirteen
Nez Peak
Nick
Steep
Suppression
Strategy
Point Zone
Protection
Monitor
Monitor
Full Suppression
Full Suppression
Full Suppression
Size
MMA
41, 888
0%
$11,348,878
15
1
1525
1
1
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
$6,000
$6,000
$500,000
$5,000
$5,000
ATTACHMENTS


WFDSS Summary (July 17 – August 19, 2013) see pages 20-55.
Fire Progression Maps see pages 56-58.
20 | P a g e
Cost to Date
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
WFDSS SUMMARY (Weather, Objectives, Course of Action, Rationale)
July 17, 2013 - Day 2 of Fire, Initial Attack (IA)
Weather

3-7 day, Haines 4, partly cloudy chance of precip and t-storms, temps 80 – 90
degrees.
Objectives




Make the health and safety of firefighters and the public the highest priority at all
times.
Protect identified natural and cultural resource values at risk.
Plan and conduct fire management activities that protect identified private/public
resources.
Utilize fire to maintain and/or improve healthy, dynamic ecosystems that meet land
management goals.
Course of Action







Follow the planned initial response.
Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails Program
Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison.
Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to
record fire activity and growth.
Post fire information signs on National Forest System (NFS) trails #705, #89, and at
Observation Point.
If National Forest System (NFS) road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider
posting signs or using road guards and notify the Nez Perce of the potential impacts
to the road.
Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth, and
proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire
information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers,
external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities,
adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers and
other interested parties on an as needed basis.
21 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014

Point protection and modified suppression tactics to protect values at risk is the
current course of action. A long-term plan that is being developed to manage this
incident with subsequent management action points (MAPs) addressing key
actions/decisions that need to take place as the fire progresses to protect lives,
property, structures and other values at risk for the duration of this incident. MAPs
will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet
incident objectives and requirements.
Rationale

Due to the fire's remote wilderness location, distance to values at risk, small size,
barriers to spread and minimal fire activity this fire will be managed for restoration
objectives.
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?


The fire is currently 1/10th of an acre with very minimal fire activity in a remote
wilderness area with some barriers to fire spread and over 1 mile from any values at
risk.
Will review relative risk assessment if things significantly change.
What is the chance the critical value(s) will be impacted and if so, what are the
consequences?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
What are the low probability/high consequence events?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
22 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?
Objectives for the incident include:

Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner.
Strategic and tactical alternatives:

In an area where fires have been allowed to play their natural role in the wilderness
for several decades. Large fire scars to the north and south which would help keep
the fire as a surface fire if moving in those directions.
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?

Only about 2 weeks into our fire season. Several large fire scars in the area as well
as some rocky scree slopes to the west that will help reduce fire spread.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

Unavailable in published WFDSS.
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored.

The fire is currently 1 mile SW of Kim Creek Saddle. Outhouse, hitching rails, sign
boards, and an Outfitter Base Camp are located there. It's also the closest point
where the fire could impact NFS road #468 which is the only road through the
wilderness.
July 22, 2013 - Day 7 of Fire
Weather
23 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014

Dry, breezy, 3-7 day, partly cloudy chance of T-storms, temps 55-70/75-90 degrees.
Objectives


Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner.
Minimize the fires impact to infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle as well as to NFS
road #468.
Course of Action

July 17, 2013
 Follow the planned initial response.
 Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails
Program Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison.
 Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to
record fire activity and growth.
 Post fire information signs on NFS trails #705, #89, and at Observation Point.
 If NFS road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider posting signs or using
road guards and notify the Nez Perce of the potential impacts to the road.
 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,
and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire
information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers,
external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities,
adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers
and other interested parties on an as needed basis.
Rationale

Unavailable in published WFDSS
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?


Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle (1 mile NW) including an outhouse, sign
boards, and hitching rails.
NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID.
24 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014



Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468.
Historic Magruder Ranger Station (5 miles NW).
Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle.
What is the chance the critical values at risk will be impacted and, if so, what are the
consequences?


Likely the fire will impact Kim Creek Saddle and NFS road #468. Consequences
could include potential damage to infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle and along the
road system, damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential road
closure or delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public
based on managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.
Unlikely the fire will impact Magruder Ranger Station. If so, consequences could
include damage to a prized historic site.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires
to play their natural role and be managed for restoration objectives.
What are the possible low probability/high consequence events?



Fire impacting any of the above mentioned values at risk before mitigation
measures are in place
Firefighters or public being trapped or injured while traveling on NFS road #468 or
while implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts
to the values at risk.
Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder Corridor as well as in the
populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages.
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees that will be directly impacted by the management
strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor, District
Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager and Forest FMO.
25 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?


Full Suppression
Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


Full Suppression - minimal exposure to firefighters and public as it is estimated the
fire could be contained at 1/4 acre in 2 shifts with a 4 person Initial Attack (IA)
module and no aviation support. Would also negate any impacts to the values at
risk listed above.
Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long
duration events exposure to responders will be higher. Because values at risk will
likely be impacted, it is estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road
guards will be engaged in some manner to implement mitigation measures to
potential values at risk. It is also likely that aviation resources will be used either
for recons or to assist in implementing tactics necessary for point protection.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?


Full Suppression - very high probability of success as local IA resources are readily
available and the fire received approximately 1/3 inch of rain after detection
temporarily minimizing fire behavior and spread.
Restoration Objectives with Point Protection Strategy - high probability of success
as the fire is in a remote wilderness area with few values at risk in close proximity
and local fire managers are very experienced at managing large/long duration
events.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

A restoration objective with point protection strategy strikes the best balance. The
location of the Gold Pan Fire near the Magruder Corridor makes a simple restoration
objective more complex in that there are values at risk close by at Kim Creek Saddle.
The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it important to
weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success for the
strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the corridor to reduce
26 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
long-term complexity in managing the incident. The actions taken to slow the
progress will first take into account risk to responders.
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored?

Should the fire burn through Kim Creek Saddle, the point protection portion of the
strategy will become moot for that location. Other values at risk may need to be
protected as the fire season develops (Observation Point, Magruder Ranger Station,
Hells Half Lookout, trail bridges).
August 1, 2013 - Day 16 of Fire, G. Poncin Type 1 Team
Weather

3-7 day, Haines 4-2, partly cloudy chance of precip and t-storms, temps 75 – 90
degrees.
Objectives




Make the health and safety of firefighters and the public the highest priority at all
times.
Protect identified natural and cultural resource values at risk.
Plan and conduct fire management activities that protect identified private/public
resources.
Utilize fire to maintain and/or improve healthy, dynamic ecosystems that meet land
management goals.
Course of Action





Notify Forest Heritage Resources Coordinator, Forest Wilderness/Trails Program
Manager, and West Fork Outfitter and Guide liaison.
Continue daily monitoring from staffed lookouts, air patrols, and road patrols to
record fire activity and growth.
Post fire information signs on NFS trails #705, #89, and at Observation Point.
If NFS road #468 is being impacted by smoke, consider posting signs or using road
guards and notify the Nez Perce NF of the potential impacts to the road.
Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth, and
proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
27 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014


Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire
information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers,
external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities,
adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers and
other interested parties on an as needed basis.
Point protection and modified suppression tactics to protect values at risk is the
current course of action. A long-term plan that is being developed to manage this
incident with subsequent MAPs addressing key actions/decisions that need to take
place as the fire progresses to protect lives, property, structures and other values at
risk for the duration of this incident. MAPs will be monitored continually and
actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident objectives and
requirements.
Rationale

This fire is currently burning within the Frank Church River of No Return and
Selway Bitterroot Wilderness (FCRONR & SBW) areas of a Moderate-High priority
due to location to values at risk. This portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many
natural barriers (past fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks).
The current seasonal severity is very high for this time of year. Exposure of
firefighting personnel into these area(s) are a concern due to many snags, no
adequate safety zones or escape routes, and a high dependence on intensive
aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs being developed to manage
this fire using a point protection and modified suppression strategy over the
duration of the fire season. The relative risk assessment rating has been modified
from moderate to its current rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type
1 IMT on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot National Forest. The
strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this fire.
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?





Firefighter and public safety
Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and
hitching rails
NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID
Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468
Historic Magruder Ranger Station
28 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014









Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle
Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk
City Road
Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped) and Bare Cone lookout
Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass
Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site)
WUI – private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot
River, and Painted Rocks area.
Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the
north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east.
Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements
Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot
River drainages Kim Creek Saddle infrastructure.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires
to play their natural role. The fire will be a long duration event, therefore, there is a
possibility that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, and threaten
private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and
the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until the season ending
event eliminates those threats. Therefore, this fire is being managed under multiple
objectives with point protection and modified suppression strategies through a
long-term plan.
What are the low probability/high consequence events?





Fire damaging or loss of any of the above mentioned values before mitigation
measures are in place.
Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling NFS road #468 or while
implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to
the values at risk.
Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area.
Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder Corridor as well as in the
populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages and the Bitterroot Valley.
Aviation accidents due to high exposure in mountainous terrain, low altitude flying,
other firefighting aircraft flying in area and windy, hot, weather conditions.
29 | P a g e
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the
management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor,
District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Forest FMO, IC,
Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West Fork Fire Chiefs, County
Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director, County Commissioners (5),
State Department of Air Quality (DEQ), Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and
Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the
planning area.
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?
Objectives:







Base all of the actions on sound risk management principles making public,
firefighter and aviation safety number one priority.
Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh
risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness
values at risk. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half
Lookout, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468,
Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.
Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the longterm plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting
Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and Lookouts Communication Escape routes and
Safety zones (LCES) and if the hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the
corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and
understood, and is based on current factual information.
Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure
timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders.
Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with
all actions identified in the Incident Action Plan (IAP) and long-term plan.
Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli
County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County Department of Emergency
30 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014



Services (DES), County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli
County Electric, residents and general public.
Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long
duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety;
outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to
prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce
Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot. Long-term plan should focus on
utilizing a point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season-ending
event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the
planning area.
Work closely with resource advisors to ensure fire suppression impacts to natural
and cultural resources are kept to a minimum.
Support the Bitterroot National Forest IA, as possible and closely coordinate any IA
within the Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR).
Strategic and tactical alternatives:

A combination of point protection and modified suppression strategies are being
employed on this fire. Because of the potential long duration of this incident, there
is a high likelihood that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, due to
continuous fuels, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of
safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land,
managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West
Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the
suppression actions and/or season ending event reduces or eliminates those
threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being
used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are
being developed and identified in MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions
identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily
IAP when necessary by the Incident Management organization.
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding
and delaying tactics is high. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred
from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions
and terrain.
Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more
exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted, it is
31 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement
protection to values at risk will be exposed to many safety hazards and risks during
the implemented actions protecting those values. It is also likely that exposure will
be high using aviation resources that will be used for recons to assist in
implementing tactics necessary for point protection and containment operations.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?

Suppression - Low probability of success due to extreme seasonal conditions as
exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural
barriers, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape
routes.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

A long-term plan with MAPs is being developed for the protection of values at risk
within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies
strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The
location and current size of the Gold Pan Fire makes it more complex in that there
are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire
perimeter. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it
important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success
for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the
Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term
complexity in managing the incident and threats to high values at risk. The actions
taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take
into account risk to responders before action is initiated.
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored?

The fire has a long-term plan that is being developed to assist in managing this
incident over the long-term with MAPs established to key actions/decisions that
need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk.
The MAPs will be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented
to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at
risk.
32 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
August 04, 2013 - Day 19 of Fire, Day 5 of Poncin’s T1 IMT
Weather

Partly cloudy and windy, 3-7 day, partly cloudy chance of T-storms, temps 50-60/
80-90 degrees.
Objectives





Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and
aviation safety number one priority. Manage incident operations in a cost effective
and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success,
exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values. Utilize management actions
commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fire’s impact to FS infrastructures as identified in the Values Inventory.
Protect identified cultural resource values at risk from unacceptable damage from
fire or fire suppression activities.
Protect private property and infrastructure by preventing the spread of fire out of
the wilderness and onto private lands.
Use fire in the wilderness area to meet land management objectives where fire
spread will not compromise protection objectives.
Course of Action

July 17, 2013
 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,
and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire
information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers,
external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities,
adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers
and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

August 4, 2013
 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.
 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County
33 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014




(Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road
Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce NF, Ravalli County Electric, residents and
general public.
Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the
long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard
Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot
be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s
Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual
information. Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at
all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested
stakeholders. Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing
risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to
manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for
public safety; outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and
values; and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private
residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot.
Long-term plan focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression
strategies to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAP's will be
monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet
incident objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to
protect values within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and risk
assessment products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated regularly
and updated as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or SOPL).
In FMU4 (Wilderness), monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be
consistent with vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will
not conflict with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the
fire from leaving the wilderness.
In FMU1 (WUI), FMU2 (Active Roaded) and FMU3 (Roadless and Unroaded), use
point protection and modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk.
Rationale

This fire is currently burning within the FCRONR & SBW areas of a moderate-high
priority due to location to values at risk. The western and southern portion of the
FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past fire scars, rock scree slopes,
rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous fuels containing high mortality
from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the current fire area across the
34 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
wilderness boundary down into the Nez Perce Creek drainage. There are no natural
barriers to the east of the fire area. The current seasonal severity is very high for
this time of year. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are a concern
due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, and a high
dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs
have been developed to manage the fire using point protection and modified
suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk
assessment rating has been modified from Moderate to its current rating of high.
The fire is being managed under a Type 1 IMT on the West Fork Ranger District of
the Bitterroot National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the
current course of action for this fire.
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?














Firefighter and public safety.
Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and
hitching rails.
NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID
Misc signs along NFS road #468.
Historic Magruder Ranger Station.
Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle.
Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk
City Rd.
Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped) and Bare Cone lookout.
Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass.
Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site).
WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot
River, and Painted Rocks area.
Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the
north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east.
Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements.
Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot
River drainages.
35 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
What is the chance the critical values will be impacted and, if so, what are the
consequences?


The fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger Station,
Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites, and
some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along NFS
road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values, damage
to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or delays
on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on managing
these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.
Because this fire is going to be a long duration fire, it is possible that the fire may
impact the Nez Perce Pass area, threaten the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West
Fork Bitterroot River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other misc.
trailheads, bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include
the potential evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River
residents; threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage
timberlands and plantations along with misc. trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and
other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the area closure.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

The fire is located in a remote wilderness area where the Forest Plan allows for fires
to play their natural role. The fire will be a long duration event, therefore, there is a
possibility that this fire may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, and threaten
private land, managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and
the West Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions
and/or the season ending event reduces or eliminates those threats. Therefore, this
fire is being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and modified
suppression strategies through a long-term plan.
What are the low probability/high consequence events?



Fire damaging or loss of any of the above mentioned values before mitigation
measures are in place.
Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling NFS road #468 or while
implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impact to the
values at risk.
Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area.
36 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014


Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder corridor as well as in the
populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages and the Bitterroot Valley.
Aviation accidents due to high exposure in mountainous terrain, low altitude flying,
other firefighting aircraft flying in area, and windy, hot weather conditions burns
towards and destroys the community of Dixie.
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the
management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Forest Supervisor,
District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program Manager, Forest FMO,
Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West
Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director,
County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and
Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the
planning area.
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?
Objectives for the incident include:





Base all of the actions on sound risk management principles making public,
firefighter and aviation safety number one priority.
Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh
risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness
values. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half
Lookout, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS road #468,
Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.
Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the longterm plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting
Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated,
don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly
communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.
Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure
timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders.
37 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014





Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with
all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli
County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.),
Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents and
general public.
Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long
duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety;
outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to
prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce
Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan should focus
on utilizing a point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the seasonending event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within
the planning area.
Work closely with resource advisors to ensure fire suppression impacts to natural
and cultural resources are kept to a minimum.
Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as possible and closely
coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.
Course of Action alternatives include:

A combination of point protection and modified suppression strategies are being
employed on this fire. Because of the potential long duration of this incident, there
is a high likelihood that this fire may spread outside wilderness, to the east, due to
continuous fuels, lack of tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of
safety zones and escape routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land,
managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West
Fork of the Bitterroot River may be threatened over the long-term until the
suppression actions and/or season ending event reduces or eliminates those
threats. Point protection and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being
used to delay/slow fire spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are
identified in the MAPs in the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs
in the long-term plan will be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the
Incident Management organization.
38 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding
and delaying tactics is high. There is a potential for safety risks to be transferred
from ground resources to the use of aerial resources given the extreme conditions
and terrain.
Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more
exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted it is
estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement
protection to values at risk. It is also likely that aviation resources will be used for
recons to assist in implementing tactics necessary for point protection and
containment operations.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?

Suppression - Low probability of success due to extreme seasonal conditions as
exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with no natural
barriers, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape
routes.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

A long-term plan with MAPs is being developed for the protection of values at risk
within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies
strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The
location and current size of the Gold Pan fire makes it more complex in that there
are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the current fire
perimeter. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead make it
important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of success
for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the
Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term
complexity in managing the incident and threats to high values at risk. The actions
taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take
into account risk to responders before action is initiated.
39 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored?

The fire has a long-term plan which has been developed to manage this incident as a
long duration fire with MAPs established to key on actions/decisions that need to
take place to protect lives, property, structures, and other values at risk. The MAPs
will be monitored continually by the incident management organization and
actions/decisions will be implemented to meet the objectives of protection of lives,
property, structures and other values at risk.
August 17, 2013 - Day 32 of Fire, Diane Hutton’s WFMT
Weather


Red Flag Warning today, 3-7 day, Haines 6-5, sunny then chance of precip and tstorms, temps 75 – 90 degrees.
Outlook above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Objectives






Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and
aviation safety number one priority. Manage incident operations in a cost effective
and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success,
exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values. Utilize management actions
commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fire’s impact to FS infrastructures as identified in the Values Inventory.
Protect identified cultural resource values at risk from unacceptable damage from
fire or fire suppression activities.
Protect private property and infrastructure by preventing the spread of fire out of
the wilderness and onto private lands.
Use fire in the wilderness area to meet land management objectives where fire
spread will not compromise protection objectives.
Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and
aviation safety the number one priority.
Course of Action

July 17, 2013
40 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new
growth, and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop
fire information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality
managers, external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local
communities, adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public
Affairs Officers and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

August 4, 2013
 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.
 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and
area/road/trail closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ,
Ravalli County (Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County
DES, Ravalli County Road Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest,
Ravalli County Electric, residents and general public.
 Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis
Form (215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s
and the long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10
Standard Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the
hazard cannot be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action.
Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is
based on current factual information. Provide relevant information to
maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure timely and accurate
information is distributed to interested stakeholders. Emphasize the use of
contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with all actions
identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
 Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to
manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures
for public safety; outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values;
and to prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in
the Nez Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Longterm plan focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression
strategies to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAPs will
be monitored continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet
incident objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to
protect values within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and
risk assessment products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated
41 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
regularly and updated as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or
SOPL).
 Monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be consistent with
vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will not conflict
with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the fire
from leaving the wilderness.
 In Active Roaded and Roadless and Unroaded, use point protection and
modified suppression strategies to protect values at risk.

August 17, 2013
 Coordinate and maintain communications about
area/road/trail closures with the Salmon-Challis NF.
fire
status
and
Rationale

There are currently four fires burning within the planning area of this complex
within the FCRNR & SBW areas. They are the Gold Pan, Goat Mountain, Nez Peak,
and Thirteen fires. The Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are high priority due to their
location to values at risk. The Goat Mountain fire is moderate priority due to its
location to values at risk. The Thirteen fire is low priority because of minimal values
at risk and recent past large fire activity that will inhibit spread. The western and
southern portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past fire
scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous fuels
containing high mortality from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the Gold
Pan and Nez Peak fire areas across the wilderness boundary down into the Nez
Perce Creek and Blue Joint drainages. There are no natural barriers to the east of
the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. The current seasonal severity is very high for this
time of year with current ERC level at the 97th percentile. Exposure of firefighting
personnel into these area(s) are of high concern due to many snags, no adequate
safety zones or escape routes, extreme burning conditions, and a high dependence
on intensive aviation support for tactical and logistical needs. MAPs have been
developed for these fires to manage them using point protection and modified
suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season. The relative risk
assessment rating has a rating of high. The fire is being managed under a Type 2
IMT organization on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot National Forest.
The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of action for this
fire.
42 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?















Firefighter and public safety.
Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and
hitching rails (currently wrapped).
NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID
(Current road and area closure in place).
Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468 (currently wrapped).
Historic Magruder Ranger Station (has protection measures completed).
Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle and Salmon Mountain.
Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk
City Road.
Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped), Salmon Mountain Lookout and Bare Cone
Lookout.
Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass (no longer a threat - has been removed).
Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site [currently wrapped]).
WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot
River, and Painted Rocks area. (East Side Contingency Plan has been prepared - See
reports).
Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the
north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east.
Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements (most of these
improvements [except bridges] have been wrapped).
Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot
River drainage.
Gold Pan Complex ICP.
What is the chance the critical value(s) will be impacted and if so, what are the
consequences?

The Gold Pan fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger
Station, Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites,
and some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along
NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values,
damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or
delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on
managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.
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Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014


Because the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are going to be long duration fires, it is
possible that these fires may impact the Nez Perce Pass area, spread outside
wilderness threatening the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork Bitterroot
River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other miscellaneous trailheads,
bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include the potential
evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River residents;
threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage timberlands
and plantations along with miscellaneous trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and
other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the road and area
closures.
The chances that the Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires impacting values at risk is
low due to their location to the values at risk and presence of recent large fire scars
and lack of fuel for fire spread.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

These fires are located in the remote FCRONR & SBW areas where the Forest Plan
allows for fires to play their natural role. The fires will be a long duration events,
therefore, there is a possibility that two of these fires, the Gold Pan and Nez Peak
fires, may spread outside wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land,
managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West
Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions and/or the
season ending-fire slowing events reduce or eliminate those threats. Therefore,
these fires are being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and
modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.
What are the low probability/high consequence events?





Fire damaging or loss of any of the above mentioned values before mitigation
measures are in place.
Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling forest NFS road #468 or while
implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to
the values at risk.
Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area.
Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder corridor as well as in the
populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages and the Bitterroot Valley.
Aviation accidents due to high exposure in mountainous terrain, low altitude flying,
other firefighting aircraft flying in area and windy, hot, weather conditions.
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the
management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Bitterroot Forest
Supervisor, West Fork District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program
Manager, Bitterroot Forest FMO, Red River Ranger District on the Nez Perce
National Forest, North Fork Ranger District on the Salmon-Challis National Forest,
Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West
Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director,
County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and
Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the
planning area.
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?
Objectives for the incident include:







Base all of the actions on sound risk management principles making public,
firefighter and aviation safety number one priority.
Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh
risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness
values. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half and
Salmon Mountain Lookouts, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS
road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.
Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the longterm plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting
Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated,
don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly
communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.
Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure
timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders.
Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with
all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli
45 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014



County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.),
Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Salmon Challis Forest, Ravalli County
Electric, residents and general public.
Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long
duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety;
outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values; and to prevent fire from
reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce Creek drainage
and West Fork of the Bitterroot. Long-term plan should focus on utilizing a point
protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season-ending event. Develop
MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within the planning area.
Work closely with resource advisors to ensure fire suppression impacts to natural
and cultural resources are kept to a minimum.
Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as possible and closely
coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.
Strategic and tactical alternatives include:

All fires within the complex are being managed for multiple objectives with point
protection and/or modified suppression strategies. Because these fires will be of
long duration there is a high likelihood that the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires may
spread outside the wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, a high
component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, lack of
tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape
routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands,
and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River
may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or fire
slowing/season ending events reduce or eliminate those threats. Point protection
and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire
spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are identified in the MAPs in
the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will
be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management
Organization. Numerous actions identified in the long-term plan addressed within
the MAPs have been implemented even though these fires have not reached those
MAPs. This has essentially provided the adequate preparation and protection of
values at risk in anticipation of these fires crossing those MAPs given the high
seasonal severity.
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding
and delaying tactics is high, particularly on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. There
is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of
aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.
Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more
exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted, it is
estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement
protection to values at risk will be exposed to many safety hazards and risks during
the implemented actions protecting those values. It is also likely that exposure will
be high using aviation resources that will be used for recons to assist in
implementing tactics necessary for point protection and containment operations.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?

Protection strategies of Point Protection and Modified Suppression - Low
probability of success on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires due to extreme seasonal
conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with
no natural barriers, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark
beetle activity, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape
routes.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

A long-term plan with MAPs has been developed for the protection of values at risk
within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies
strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The
location and current size of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires make it more complex
in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the
current fire perimeters. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead
make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of
success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the
Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term
complexity in managing the incidents and threats to high values at risk. The actions
taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take
into account risk to responders before action is initiated. The Goat Mountain and
47 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Thirteen fires will remain in monitoring status unless they become active and
breach a MAP that requires some action to protect values at risk.
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored.

The Gold Pan Complex has a long-term plan that has been developed to manage
these incidents as long duration fires with MAPs established addressing
actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and
other values at risk and coordinate with local RFDs, County officials, and other
cooperators/partners/shareholders. The MAPs will be monitored continually by
the incident management organization and actions/decisions will be implemented
to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at
risk. The MAPs will be incorporated into the daily IAPs.
August 19, 2013 - Day 34 of Fire, Day 2 of Turman’s T1 IMT
Weather

Haines 4, 3-7 day, partly cloudy with slight chance of rain showers temps 50-60, 7590 degrees.
Objectives






Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and
aviation safety number one priority. Manage incident operations in a cost effective
and efficient manner. Carefully weigh risk versus gain, probability of success,
exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness values. Utilize management actions
commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fire’s impact to FS infrastructures as identified in the Values Inventory.
Protect identified cultural resource values at risk from unacceptable damage from
fire or fire suppression activities.
Protect private property and infrastructure by preventing the spread of fire out of
the wilderness and onto private lands.
Use fire in the wilderness area to meet land management objectives where fire
spread will not compromise protection objectives.
Base all actions on sound risk management principles making public, firefighter and
aviation safety number one priority.
48 | P a g e
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Course of Action

July 17, 2013
 Map the fire when significant growth occurs to obtain current size, new growth,
and proximity to boundaries and values at risk.
 Coordinate with Bitterroot National Forest information officers to develop fire
information updates for dissemination to all employees, air quality managers,
external/cooperating agencies, media, legislative outlets, local communities,
adjacent landowners, cooperating and adjoining agency Public Affairs Officers
and other interested parties on an as needed basis.

August 4, 2013
 Post fire information signs at trailheads and access points.
 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County
(Ravalli County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road
Dept.), Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Ravalli County Electric, residents
and general public.
 Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAP’s and the
long-term plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard
Firefighting Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot
be mitigated, don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s
Intent is clearly communicated and understood, and is based on current factual
information. Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at
all times. Ensure timely and accurate information is distributed to interested
stakeholders. Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing
risk associated with all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
 Implement, as appropriate under current conditions, the long-term plan to
manage this as a long duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for
public safety; outfitters/guides operations; FS infrastructure and values; and to
prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez
Perce Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan
focuses on utilizing point protection and modified suppression strategies to
protect values at risk until the season-ending event. MAPs will be monitored
continually and actions/decisions will be implemented to meet incident
objectives and requirements. Develop additional MAPs needed to protect values
49 | P a g e
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
within the planning area. Ensure that the long-term plan and risk assessment
products (FSPro, weather outlooks, etc.) are re-evaluated regularly and updated
as necessary by qualified personnel (LTAN and/or SOPL).
 In FMU4 (Wilderness), monitor fire behavior to ensure that fire effects will be
consistent with vegetation and habitat objectives, and predicted fire spread will
not conflict with protection objectives. Use appropriate strategies to prevent the
fire from leaving the wilderness.
 In FMU1 (Wildland Urban Interface), FMU2 (Active Roaded) and FMU3
(Roadless and Unroaded), use point protection and modified suppression
strategies to protect values at risk.

August 17, 2013
 Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with the Salmon-Challis National Forest.
Rationale

There are currently four fires burning within the planning area of this complex
within the FCRNR & SBW areas. They are the Gold Pan, Goat, Nez Peak, and
Thirteen fires. The Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are high priority due to their
location to values at risk that are located in the direction of the prevailing wind, to
the east of these fires. The Goat Mountain fire is moderate priority due to its
location to values at risk. The Thirteen fire is low priority because of minimal values
at risk and recent past large fire activity that will inhibit spread. The western and
southern portion of the FCRONR & SBW contains many natural barriers (past recent
fire scars, rock scree slopes, rocky outcroppings and creeks). Heavy, continuous
fuels containing high mortality from mountain pine beetle exists to the east of the
Gold Pan and Nez Peak fire areas across the wilderness boundary down into the Nez
Perce Creek, Blue Joint Creek, and West Fork of the Bitterroot River drainages.
Private land, residences and other values are located in these two drainages. There
are no natural barriers to the east of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. The current
seasonal severity is very high for this time of year with current ERC level at the 97th
percentile. Exposure of firefighting personnel into these area(s) are of high concern
due to many snags, no adequate safety zones or escape routes, extreme burning
conditions, and a high dependence on intensive aviation support for tactical and
logistical needs. MAPs have been developed to manage the fires using a point
protection and modified suppression strategy over the duration of the fire season.
The relative risk assessment rating has a rating of high. The fire is being managed
50 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
under a Type 1 IMT organization on the West Fork Ranger District of the Bitterroot
National Forest. The strategic objectives are being met under the current course of
action for this fire.
Risk Assessment
What are the critical values at risk?















Firefighter and public safety.
Forest infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle including an outhouse, sign boards, and
hitching rails (currently wrapped).
NFS road #468 which is the only road through the wilderness to Elk City, ID
(Current road and area closure in place).
Miscellaneous signs along NFS road #468 (currently wrapped).
Historic Magruder Ranger Station (has protection measures completed).
Outfitter Base Camp located at Kim Creek Saddle and Salmon Mountain.
Paradise Guard Station and campgrounds along Selway River and Magruder/Elk
City Road.
Hell’s Half Lookout (currently wrapped), Salmon Mountain Lookout and Bare Cone
Lookout.
Snotel Site on Nez Perce Pass (no longer a threat - has been removed).
Grave site near Nez Perce Pass (cultural site [currently wrapped]).
WUI – Private structures and property in Nez Perce Creek, West Fork Bitterroot
River, and Painted Rocks area. (East Side Contingency Plan has been prepared - See
reports).
Suitable timberlands and plantations between the wilderness boundary on the
north and Painted Rocks reservoir on the south and east.
Miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements (most of these
improvements [except bridges] have been wrapped).
Utility lines – power and telephone in Nez Perce Creek and West Fork Bitterroot
River drainage.
Gold Pan Complex ICP (Plan in place to relocate ICP).
What is the chance the critical value(s) will be impacted and if so, what are the
consequences?

The Gold Pan fire has impacted Kim Creek Saddle, NFS road #468, Magruder Ranger
Station, Outfitter base camp at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half Lookout, Cultural Sites,
and some miscellaneous trailheads, bridges, signs and other improvements along
51 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014


NFS road #468. Consequences could include potential damage to these values,
damage to and/or evacuation of Outfitter Base Camp, potential area/road closure or
delays on NFS road #468, increased exposure to firefighters and public based on
managing these consequences, and a significant increase in incident costs.
Because the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires are going to be long duration fires, it is
possible that these fires may impact the Nez Perce Pass area, spread outside
wilderness threatening the WUI in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork Bitterroot
River, the suitable timberlands and plantations and other miscellaneous trailheads,
bridges, signs, and other improvements. Consequences would include the potential
evacuation of the Nez Perce Creek area and West Fork Bitterroot River residents;
threaten private structures and property with potential loss, damage timberlands
and plantations along with miscellaneous trailhead facilities, bridges, signs and
other improvements. There would also be a potential increase in the road and area
closures.
The chances that the Goat Mountain and Thirteen fires impacting values at risk is
Low due to their location to the values at risk and presence of recent large fire scars
and lack of fuel for fire spread.
What are the opportunities to manage the fire to meet land management plan
objectives?

These fires are located in the remote FCRONR & SBW areas where the Forest Plan
allows for fires to play their natural role. The fires will be long duration events,
therefore, there is a possibility that two of these fires, the Gold Pan and Nez Peak
fires, may spread outside the wilderness, to the east, and threaten private land,
managed timberlands, and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West
Fork of the Bitterroot River over the long-term until suppression actions and/or the
season ending-fire slowing events reduce or eliminate those threats. Therefore,
these fires are being managed under multiple objectives with point protection and
modified suppression strategies through a long-term plan.
What are the low probability/high consequence events?



Fire damaging or loss of any of the above mentioned values before mitigation
measures are in place.
Firefighters being trapped or injured while traveling forest NFS road #468 or while
implementing the strategies and tactics necessary to mitigate the fires impacts to
the values at risk.
Public being trapped or injured that are within the fire area.
52 | P a g e
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Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014


Potential for long duration smoke impacts in the Magruder corridor as well as in the
populated areas of the Nez Perce and West Fork drainages and the Bitterroot Valley.
Aviation accidents due to high exposure in mountainous terrain, low altitude flying,
other firefighting aircraft flying in the area and windy, hot weather conditions.
Who are the stakeholders that should be consulted prior to making a decision?

Local FS employees and cooperators that will be directly impacted by the
management strategy/objectives chosen to manage the incident: Bitterroot Forest
Supervisor, West Fork District Ranger, District FMO/AFMO, Wilderness Program
Manager, Bitterroot Forest FMO, Red River Ranger District on the Nez Perce
National Forest, North Fork Ranger District on the Salmon-Challis National Forest,
Incident Commander, Forest LEO, Ravalli County Sheriff, Painted Rocks and West
Fork Fire Chiefs, County Fire Warden, County Emergency Management Director,
County Commissioners (5), State DEQ, Utility Providers (Ravalli County Electric and
Blackfoot Communications) and potentially impacted private landowners in the
planning area.
Risk Decision
What alternatives (objectives, strategies, and tactics) are being considered?
Objectives for the incident include:





Base all of the actions on sound risk management principles making public,
firefighter and aviation safety number one priority.
Manage incident operations in a cost effective and efficient manner. Carefully weigh
risk versus gain, probability of success, exposure, cost, and impacts to wilderness
values. Utilize management actions commensurate with values at risk.
Minimize the fires impact to FS infrastructure at Kim Creek Saddle, Hell’s Half and
Salmon Mountain Lookouts, and Magruder Ranger Station, improvements along NFS
road #468, Paradise Guard Station, and improvements along NFS road #6223.
Use the Tactical Hazard Analysis Form (215A) and the Safety Risk Analysis Form
(215R) as part of the operational planning process, ensuring all IAPs and the longterm plan reflects this commitment to safety through the 10 Standard Firefighting
Orders, 18 Watch Out Situations, and LCES and if the hazard cannot be mitigated,
don’t implement the corresponding action. Ensure that Leader’s Intent is clearly
communicated and understood, and is based on current factual information.
Provide relevant information to maintain situational awareness at all times. Ensure
timely and accurate information is distributed to interested stakeholders.
53 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014





Emphasize the use of contingency plans and MAPs for managing risk associated with
all actions identified in the IAP and long-term plan.
Coordinate and maintain communications about fire status and area/road/trail
closures with Painted Rocks and West Fork RFD’s, State DEQ, Ravalli County (Ravalli
County Fire Warden, County Commissioners, County DES, County Road Dept.),
Sheriff’s Department, Nez Perce Forest, Salmon Challis Forest, Ravalli County
Electric, residents and general public.
Develop and implement, as needed, a long-term plan to manage this as a long
duration incident addressing area/road/trail closures for public safety;
outfitters/guides operations; Forest Service infrastructure and values; and to
prevent fire from reaching private property and private residences in the Nez Perce
Creek drainage and West Fork of the Bitterroot River. Long-term plan should focus
on utilizing point protection strategy to protect values at risk until the season
ending event. Develop MAPs as part of the long-term plan to protect values within
the planning area.
Work closely with resource advisors to ensure fire suppression impacts to natural
and cultural resources are kept to a minimum.
Support the Bitterroot National Forest initial attack, as much as possible and closely
coordinate any initial attack within the TFR.
Course of Action alternatives include:

All fires within the complex are being managed for multiple objectives with point
protection and/or modified suppression strategies. Because these fires will be of
long duration there is a high likelihood that the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires may
spread outside the wilderness, to the east, due to continuous fuels, a high
component of standing dead and dying timber from bark beetle activity, lack of
tactical opportunities, firefighter safety issues with lack of safety zones and escape
routes, and high seasonal severity. Therefore, private land, managed timberlands,
and other values at risk in Nez Perce Creek and the West Fork of the Bitterroot River
may be threatened over the long-term until the suppression actions and/or fire
slowing/season ending events reduce or eliminate those threats. Point protection
and a combination of direct and indirect tactics are being used to delay/slow fire
spread or contain portions of the fire. These actions are identified in the MAPs in
the long-term plan. The actions identified under the MAPs in the long-term plan will
be incorporated into the daily IAP when necessary by the Incident Management
organization. Numerous actions identified in the long-term plan addressed within
the MAPs have been implemented even though these fires have not reached those
MAPs. This has essentially provided the adequate preparation and protection of
54 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
values at risk in anticipation of these fires crossing those MAPs given the high
seasonal severity.
What is the exposure to responders for the alternatives being considered?


Suppression - Exposure to firefighters and aviation resources implementing holding
and delaying tactics is high, particularly on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires. There
is a potential for safety risks to be transferred from ground resources to the use of
aerial resources given the extreme conditions and terrain.
Point Protection Strategy - as with most large/long duration fires there is more
exposure to responders. Because values at risk will likely be impacted, it is
estimated that various IA modules/crews/engines/road guards to implement
protection to values at risk will be exposed to many safety hazards and risks during
the implemented actions protecting those values. It is also likely that exposure will
be high using aviation resources that will be used for recons to assist in
implementing tactics necessary for point protection and containment operations.
What is the relative probability of success associated with the alternatives being
considered?

Protection strategies of Point Protection and Modified Suppression - Low
probability of success on the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires due to extreme seasonal
conditions as exhibited by ERC levels near the 97th percentile, continuous fuels with
no natural barriers, a high component of standing dead and dying timber from bark
beetle activity, high risk to firefighters because of the lack of safety zones and escape
routes.
What alternative provides for the best balance between the desired outcome and
exposure to responders?

A long-term plan with MAPs has been developed for the protection of values at risk
within a large planning area. Point protection and modified suppression strategies
strikes the best balance to protect the values at risk within the planning area. The
location and current size of the Gold Pan and Nez Peak fires make it more complex
in that there are values at risk that may be threatened several miles from the
current fire perimeters. The burning conditions and the length of fire season ahead
make it important to weigh carefully the risk to responders with the probability of
success for the strategy. It is desirable to slow the progress of the fire across the
Magruder/Elk City road corridor and outside the wilderness to reduce long-term
complexity in managing the incidents and threats to high values at risk. The actions
55 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
taken to slow/delay or contain the fire must be safe and effective, thus will first take
into account risk to responders before action is initiated. The Goat Mountain and
Thirteen fires will remain in monitoring status unless they become active and
breach a MAP that requires some action to protect values at risk.
What are the critical thresholds that will trigger reconsideration of the proposed
alternatives and how will they be monitored.

The Gold Pan Complex has a long-term plan that has been developed to manage
these incidents as long duration fires with MAPs established addressing
actions/decisions that need to take place to protect lives, property, structures, and
other values at risk and coordinate with local RFD's, County officials, and other
cooperator’s/partners/shareholders. The MAPs will be monitored continually by
the incident management organization and actions/decisions will be implemented
to meet the objectives of protection of lives, property, structures and other values at
risk. The MAPs will be incorporated into the daily IAPs.
56 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Incident Overview 7/16/2013
57 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Incident Overview 7/29/2013
58 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Incident Overview 7/29/2013
59 | P a g e
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Gold Pan Cost Appendices
Activity Date
CAMP
PERSONNEL
CAMP
SUPPORT
AIRCRAFT
CREWS
07/26/2013
07/27/2013
07/28/2013
07/29/2013
07/30/2013
07/31/2013
08/01/2013
08/02/2013
08/03/2013
08/04/2013
08/05/2013
08/06/2013
08/07/2013
08/08/2013
08/09/2013
08/10/2013
08/11/2013
08/12/2013
08/13/2013
08/14/2013
08/15/2013
08/16/2013
08/17/2013
08/18/2013
08/19/2013
08/20/2013
08/21/2013
08/22/2013
08/23/2013
08/24/2013
08/25/2013
08/26/2013
08/27/2013
08/28/2013
08/29/2013
$1,524
$22,306
$26,866
$48,559
$72,344
$78,785
$79,036
$78,160
$76,112
$75,818
$77,547
$73,027
$70,017
$67,673
$66,168
$62,236
$69,326
$68,960
$66,959
$47,812
$35,285
$46,686
$62,989
$71,508
$70,217
$63,007
$61,496
$57,539
$57,325
$55,776
$54,594
$47,728
$47,979
$45,499
$44,476
$1
$28,522
$68,837
$87,449
$99,811
$86,503
$79,945
$88,862
$97,940
$93,605
$84,431
$98,970
$86,583
$84,932
$75,337
$73,716
$84,634
$90,386
$68,105
$48,603
$53,133
$59,651
$105,623
$62,421
$45,925
$53,258
$65,938
$48,367
$50,527
$73,232
$49,898
$51,500
$48,588
$47,538
$42,623
$7,774
$20,963
$20,434
$45,774
$57,764
$83,115
$60,997
$73,875
$99,990
$85,255
$108,218
$125,538
$111,289
$98,752
$62,291
$42,748
$22,614
$23,633
$22,431
$43,225
$67,079
$31,730
$26,839
$20,011
$14,783
$24,796
$24,051
$17,279
$32,017
$25,253
$25,042
$29,978
$18,219
$21,364
$15,673
$7,030
$22,363
$39,878
$45,995
$59,277
$68,945
$78,295
$94,174
$104,551
$108,998
$116,488
$123,531
$125,898
$126,215
$109,563
$96,719
$74,194
$51,681
$53,436
$51,025
$63,785
$61,092
$47,994
$40,748
$40,229
$40,229
$27,020
$26,560
$26,560
$26,301
$26,301
$26,301
$13,997
$13,997
$15,941
08/30/2013
$45,716
$53,019
$25,654
$2,072
08/31/2013
$45,630
$48,159
$3,468
Grand Total
$2,142,684
$2,486,567 $1,639,909 $2,057,383
60 | P a g e
EQUIPMENT
LINE
PERSONNEL
Grand Total
$4,448
$3,487
$7,214
$18,410
$30,767
$34,434
$42,860
$44,668
$47,958
$43,731
$42,080
$36,520
$44,274
$47,688
$29,610
$28,454
$15,274
$15,652
$16,230
$15,944
$52,311
$55,816
$56,104
$59,314
$60,787
$58,732
$59,892
$64,374
$65,031
$61,394
$61,349
$58,250
$57,375
$57,323
$1,348
$5,837
$7,649
$26,427
$34,755
$39,765
$40,320
$43,717
$43,619
$42,111
$39,754
$35,499
$35,239
$35,035
$33,933
$32,339
$31,292
$25,662
$19,925
$13,088
$12,178
$21,864
$30,685
$30,912
$28,751
$25,112
$25,122
$22,986
$23,355
$24,188
$24,848
$26,712
$25,566
$25,089
$25,518
$17,676
$104,439
$167,151
$261,419
$342,362
$387,880
$373,028
$421,647
$466,879
$453,745
$470,168
$498,645
$465,546
$456,879
$394,980
$337,367
$310,512
$275,595
$246,508
$219,983
$247,404
$273,334
$329,945
$281,704
$259,219
$267,190
$262,358
$232,622
$254,158
$269,781
$242,076
$243,566
$212,598
$210,861
$201,553
$61,877
$25,475
$213,812
$46,222
$22,409
$165,887
$1,505,850 $1,008,085 $10,840,478
Gold Pan Complex Programmatic/Cost Fire Review
Bitterroot National Forest
U.S. Forest Service, Feb 2014
Total Cost as of 8/31/2013 $10,868,589
Camp
Personnel
$600,000
19.8%
Camp
Support
$500,000
22.7%
Aircraft
$400,000
15.0%
Crews
19.5%
$300,000
Equipment
13.7%
Line
Personnel
$200,000
9.3%
$100,000
$0
CAMP PERSONNEL
CAMP SUPPORT
AIRCRAFT
61 | P a g e
CREWS
EQUIPMENT
LINE PERSONNEL