MINI ST RY O F E DU C A T I ON AND S CIE N CE O F T HE RU S SI AN
FED E R AT I ON
National Research Nuclear University “MEPhI”
Faculty of Management and Economics of High
Technologies
Kaziev Andrey Viktorovich
«Innovative project assessment and management in the
thermonuclear energy sector»
Master’s degree thesis synopsis
Moscow 2013
The work was carried out in NRNU MEPhI at Faculty of Management
and Economics of High Technologies at department 72 “Business
project management”.
Scientific adviser:
Virin Mikhail Mikhailovich
candidate of technical sciences,
associate
professor,
department
“Business project management”,
NRNU MEPhI
Scientific consultants:
The presentation of the master's thesis will take place at the «___» of
_______ , 2013 at the State Certification Committee meeting.
Please send your references in two copies to: 115409 Moscow,
Kashirskoye shosse, 31
Abstract sent out «___» of __________ , 2013.
I. MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WORK
Topicality of the thesis theme. Nowadays Russia pursues a policy
of building an innovative economy, economy of knowledge. Energy
industry plays an outstanding role in the process of such modernization.
First of all, the energy sector is vital for the national security of the
country. Secondly, the energy market is one of the most important
branches of the world market providing the players with the instruments
of economic and political influence.
In Russia the Rosatom State Corporation is now realizing a number
of innovative projects covering the whole energy production chain. One
of the main modern nuclear fission energy drawbacks is the generation
of radioactive waste so that new technologies development is needed to
avoid this issue. The nearest well-defined solution is to build a nuclear
fuel cycle based on fast-neutron reactors. The prospective future
possibility is to utilize the nuclear fusion reactions by constructing the
thermonuclear power plants. Thus, such innovative projects are
nowadays suitable for taking them as real objects of an investigation
from the management, economic and organizing points of view. The
issues of the project assessment and management are to a great extent
connected with the project risk management problems. The risk
management issues caused by the application of new technology
processes as well as the upgrading of the existing energy industry
structures are of a great interest from the scientific point of view.
Besides, these problems and their solutions are highly topical, being
situated at the front edge of the investigations of the future energy
industry development — both short- and long-run.
The goal and the tasks of the investigation. The goal of the work
is the investigation of the problems concerning the assessment and
strategic management of the innovative projects in energy sector,
economic modeling and derivation of the solutions taking into account
special features and project risks of the fast-neutron nuclear and
thermonuclear energy sector.
The tasks are: analysis of existing material on the high-technology
project assessment and risk management in energy sector, comparative
analysis of the development of thermonuclear, nuclear and alternative
energy sources, consideration of the existing risk management models
being realized today and the discussion of their applicability in case of
fast-neutron nuclear and thermonuclear energy sector.
The object of the investigation are the business projects in energy
production complex and the project management and risk management
in high-technology sphere.
The subject of the investigation are the economic indicators and
risks of the innovative projects in nuclear and thermonuclear energy
sectors.
The scientific novelty and importance are the preventive
accounting of the risks that would emerge during the realization of the
innovative projects in fast-neutron nuclear and thermonuclear energy.
Theoretical and practical significance of the work is the
implementation of the analysis of the accumulated theoretical
knowledge in the project assessment and risk evaluation sphere as well
as the past progress and errors in project management in nuclear energy
industry that allow one to expect the effective project risk management
as early as at the very beginning of the closed fuel cycle formation and
the start of the thermonuclear energy industry.
The main propositions to be defended: 1. The economic
assessment of the innovative project of constructing nine BN-1200based nuclear power plants showing that the main risk factors are the
capital costs and the MOX fuel costs. 2. The economic aspects of the
future fusion power plant projects and the additional levelized cost
components. 3. The project risk management propositions in case of
fast-neutron nuclear industry and fusion power plants.
Approval of the thesis results. The main theoretical proposals and
practical results of the thesis research were presented and discussed
during the following conferences: International theoretical-practical
conference “Science and education in the modern society life”
(Tambov,
October
29,
2012),
the
XVIth
International
telecommunication conference for young scientists and students “Youth
and science” (Moscow, NRNU MEPhI, February 1–6, 2013).
Publication level. The main results of the work have been
published in the book of collected papers of the International
theoretical-practical conference “Science and education in the modern
society life” (Tambov, October 29, 2012), in the book of abstracts of
the XVIth International telecommunication conference for young
scientists and students “Youth and science” (Moscow, NRNU MEPhI,
February 1–6, 2013), in the electronic journal “Modern problems of
science and education” and in the book of collected scientific analytical
articles “Factors of the innovative industry development in the scope of
the Russian Federation spatial economy modernization”.
Structure and size of the work. Thesis research consists of an
introduction, three chapters, conclusion and list of references. The size
of the work is 70 pages.
II. MAIN POINTS OF THE THESIS
In the introduction the aim of the investigation is defined, the
choice of the theme is substantiated, the object, subject and tasks of the
research are defined, the scientific novelty and importance as well as
theoretical and practical significance of the work are described.
In the first chapter — «Methods of risk analysis of an innovative
project» — the existing theoretical knowledge on the innovative project
management is analyzed. Various types of risk classification are
described. Main steps of the project assessment procedure with respect
to risk management are shown. Qualitative risk analysis, quantitative
risk analysis and common methods of risk management in energy
industry are examined.
In the second chapter — «Project of a nuclear plant with BN-1200
reactor» — the main information about the BN-1200 project based on
the open source publications is given. It contains the financial aspects of
the project including the capital costs, MOX production and fuel costs.
The main risks of the project are revealed. The values of corresponding
risk factors are utilized to model a project of constructing 9 nuclear
power plants with BN-1200 reactors. The quantitative assessment of the
risk factors influence on the basic economic indicators of the project is
carried out. The main methods used for computations are sensitivity
analysis and the Monte-Carlo simulation modeling. The results are
discussed and the risk minimization methods are proposed.
The third chapter — «Nuclear fusion power project prospective»
— deals with the economic assessment of existing thermonuclear power
plant projects. It contains the economic aspects of the projects including
the capital and fuel costs. The special features of the levelized cost
methodology in case of fusion power are discussed as well as the main
risk factors and their minimization methods.
In the conclusion the totals are given and the main results of the
work are summarized. The concluding points and propositions are
formulated in compliance with the goal and the tasks of the thesis
investigation.
III. CONCLUSION
The present thesis research is devoted to the innovative project
assessment and management in fast-neutron nuclear and thermonuclear
projects.
The qualitative analysis of the risks of the innovative project of
constructing the first line of nuclear plants consisting of nine BN-1200type power reactors is carried out. The main risk factors of the project
are denoted. The quantitative assessment of the risk factors influence on
the basic economic indicators of the project was performed. It was
found that the trends observed in the time variations of the capital costs
in energy sphere and particularly in the nuclear energy sector play the
prevailing role in the uncertainty of the innovative project economic
indicators. The second most important factor was found to be an
uncertainty in the production costs of nuclear fuel for fast-neutron
reactors as well as of the construction of the corresponding
manufacturing enterprises. The results obtained allow author to make
certain conclusions on the positive prospective of the innovative project
of creating nuclear power plants based on BN-1200 reactors as well as
to develop recommendations that would help in decreasing the negative
economic effects caused by the presence of the risk factors.
The considerations of the economic assessment of fusion power
plant projects are given. The quantitative assessment of the risk factors
influence on the basic economic indicators of the project was
performed. Similarly as for the fast-neutron reactors it was found that
the capital cost variation is the most important risk factor. The
recommendations regarding risk minimization are discussed.
IV. PUBLICATIONS ON THE TOPIC
OF THE THESIS RESEARCH
1. Kaziev A. V. Trends of the economic relations in nuclear waste
management sector // Science and education in the modern society life:
book of collected papers of the International theoretical-practical
conference, October 29, 2012: in 12 parts. Part 11. Russian Federation
Ministry of Education and Science. Tambov: «Biznes–Nauka–
Obshestvo», 2012. P. 40–41 (in Russian)
2. Kaziev A. V. Financial relations in the process of radioactive
waste management // XVIth International telecommunication conference
for young scientists and students “Youth and science”. Book of
abstracts. In 3 parts. Part 2. Moscow: NRNU MEPhI, 2013. P. 117
(in Russian)
3. Kaziev A. V. Innovative project risk management in nuclear
energy sector // XVIth International telecommunication conference for
young scientists and students “Youth and science”. Book of abstracts.
In 3 parts. Part 2. Moscow: NRNU MEPhI, 2013. P. 118 (in Russian)
4. Kaziev A. V. Economic aspects of the radioactive waste
management // Factors of the innovative industry development in the
scope of the Russian Federation spatial economy modernization. Book
of collected scientific analytical articles. / Ed. by V. A. Tupchienko. —
Moscow: «Trovant» Publishing House, 2013. P. 27–52 (in Russian)
5. Kaziev A. V. Risk detection ad assessment of the innovative
projet in nuclear energy sector // Modern problems of science and
education. – 2013. – № 4; URL: www.science-education.ru/(date of
visit: 04.07.2013).