PHOSPHATE 1 WORLD SUPPLY – 2013 Preliminary data of USGS (United States Geological Survey) indicate that global production of phosphate rock in 2013 was slightly higher than the previous year, with only three countries, China, the United States and Morocco (including Western Sahara), accounting for 70% of world production. Brazilian reserves have been revised and are shown in Chart 1. Between 2008 and 2013, the DNPM (National Department of Mineral Production) approved 22 final research reports and reserves revaluation, which demonstrates the interest of companies in this activity. Unlike global reserves, which occur mainly in sedimentary rocks, with levels between 25% and 33% of P2O5 and more uniform and simpler mineralogy, Brazilian reserves occur in igneous carbonatite rocks, with 10-11% average of P2O5 and more complex mineralogy and low degree of uniformity, resulting in a more complex industrial exploitation and, consequently, higher costs. Chart 1 Reserve and world production Reserves (10³t P2O5) Countries 2013(p)(1) (2) Brazil 315.000 China 3.700.000 Unites States 1.100.000 Morocco (Including Western Sahara) 50.000.000 Russia 1.300.000 Jordan 1.300.000 Egypt 100.000 Tunisia 100.000 Peru 820.000 Israel 130.000 Saudi Arabia 211.000 Other Countries 7.727.000 TOTAL 66.803.000 Source: DNPM/DIPLAM; USGS – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2014 Production (103t) 2012(r) 2013(p) % 6.750 6.715 3,0 95.300 97.000 43,4 30.100 32.300 14,4 28.000 28.000 12,5 11.200 12.500 5,6 6.380 7.000 3,1 6.240 6.000 2,7 2.600 4.000 1,8 3.210 3.900 1,7 3.510 3.600 1,6 3.000 3.000 1,3 20.500 19.570 8,8 216.790 223.585 100 (1) P2O5 Nutrients; (2) Mineable reserves; (r) revised; (p) preliminary data. 2 DOMESTIC PRODUCTION In 2013, there were mined 39 million tons of “run of mine” (ROM) in 10 Brazilian mines. The average was 9.6% P2O5. This production resulted in 6.7 million tons with an average of 37% P2O5. The State of Minas Gerais was responsible for producing 49% of the national phosphate in 2013, followed by Goiás with 36%, São Paulo with 10%, Bahia with 4% and Tocantins with the remaining. In Minas Gerais the operations are located in the municipalities of Tapira, Araxá, Patos de Minas and Lagamar. Tapira is the largest phosphate rock producer in Brazil, and the towns of Patrocinio and Serra do Salitre have not yet started production, despite extensive reserves. In Goiás the operations are located in the municipalities of Catalan and Ouvidor; in São Paulo at the town of Cajati; and in Bahia at Campo Alegre de Lourdes. The Vale Company accounted for 71% of national production in 2013, followed by Anglo/Copebrás with 21%, Galvani with 7.2%, and MBAC and Socal companies completed production. 3 IMPORTS Imports are divided into rock concentrate, phosphoric acid and intermediate products. In 2013, the import of concentrate (NCM 25101010), from Vale’s Bayovar mine in Peru, accounted for 45% of imports, while Morocco, traditional supplier, accounted for 36%, reducing its participation. 1.5 Mt were imported with US$ 210 million expenditure. Furthermore 142.242 t of phosphoric acid (NCM 28092019) were imported in 2013, expending US$ 58 million. Intermediate products hit a record last year, especially DAP (NCM 31054000) with 2.5Mt imported and expenditure of US$ 1.2 billion. MAP, Simple Superphosphate, Triple Superphosphate and others completed the agenda of “intermediate products”, with expenditures over US$ 3billion. 4 EXPORT Brazil reduced in 2013 to less than half the export of concentrate compared to 2012, with 404 t and value of US$ 131 000. However, among manufactured goods, the main item was fertilizers with nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NCM 31052000), of which in 2013 500.720 t was exported, generating US$ 254 million. 5 DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION In 2013, according to the National Association for Promotion of Fertilizers (ANDA), there was a record-breaking volume of fertilizers delivered to the final consumer, with 31 million tons. As the Brazilian phosphate production has not increased to meet domestic demand, this growth has been accomplished by increasing imports. Chart 2 – Key statistics - Brazil Topics Production 2011(r) 6.738 / 2.374 6.715 / 2.504 6.715 / 2.504 Phosphoric acid (product) / (P2O5)(**) (103t) 2.043 / 1.045 2.517 / 1.287 2.437 / 1.258 (103t) 7.642 / 1.971 7.699 / 2.145 7.443 / 2.082 (P2O5)(**) Concentrate (primary goods) Phosphoric acid (product) Intermediate Products (chemical components)(*) Concentrate (primary goods) Export Apparent Consumption (1) Prices 2013(p) Conc. (primary goods) / P2O5 (**) Intermediate products / Import 2012(r) (103t) Phosphoric acid (product) (103t) (103 US$-FOB) (103t) (103 US$-FOB) (103t) (103 US$-FOB) (103t) (103 US$-FOB) (103t) (103 US$-FOB) (103t) 2.856 1.267 1.628 206.564 205.475 219.917 308 163 148 160.587 89.740 63.489 4.834 5.399 7.258 3.174.596 2.619.062 3.185.157 1 1 1 436 310 319 21 22 30 20.514 22.849 29.786 668 540 674 306.775 279.112 335.199 8.342 Intermediate Products (chemical components)(*) (103 US$-FOB) Concentrate (primary goods) (103t) 7.917 8.006 Phosphoric Acid (product) Intermediate Products (chemical components)(*) Concentrate (rock)(2) (103t) 2.331 2.658 2.555 (103t) 11.808 12.601 14.027 (US$/t FOB) (US$/t FOB) 269,00 72,32 n/d 162,17 n/d 135,08 (US$/t FOB) (US$/t FOB) 519,83 656,63/458,83 550,50 481,26/511,31 428,98 438,85/497,33 Concentrate (rock)(3) Phosphoric Acid (3) Intermediate Products (imp./exp.)(4) Source: DNPM/DIPLAM; ANDA/IBRAFOS/SIACESP/SIMPRIFERT/SIMPRIFERT; SECEX/MDIC (import and export). (1) Production + import – Export; (2)average price industrial sales; (3)Brazilian import average price; (4)average price: Brazilian import/brazilian export; (8)intermediate products: monoamonic phosphate – MAP, diamonic phosphate – DAP, SS, SD, TSD, ST – thermophosphate, NPK, PK, NP and others; (**) nutrients in P2O5, (p) preliminary, (r) revised. 6 ONGOING AND/OR PLANNED In Ceará, the consortium INB/Galvani plans to start the processing plant construction of the mine located in Santa Quiteria and Itatiaia in early 2015, with expectation of starting production of fertilizers and “yellow cake” in 2017. In Serra do Salitre (MG), Galvani aims to start production in 2015. The same company plans to expand production at its mine located in Campo Alegre de Lourdes (BA). The Vale's project in Patrocinio and Serra do Salitre, in Minas Gerais, is under study. In 2013 MBAC inaugurated its processing plant in Arraias (TO), and has advanced in its projects at Santana (PA) and Araxa (MG). Anglo/Copebrás have conducted studies in order to increase production capacity in Catalao and Ouvidor (GO) and Cubatao plant (SP). 7 OTHER RELEVANT FACTORS The Brazilian dependence on fertilizers has been strongly debated for years, but apart from the question of whether there are mines or not that can ensure future production, in this case the whole production chain should be studied. In the case of phosphate, Brazil has some mines that could be into production, such as Patrocinio and Serra do Salitre. However, when analyzing the supply chain, bottlenecks can be identified. The product following the concentrate is phosphoric acid and this demands sulfur, a substance that Brazil produces little and has to import to produce sulfuric acid, one of the inputs in production stage. For this reason, it turns out that there is a tendency of importing manufactured products. This picture may change with a greater national production of sulfur, with the entry into production of Petrobras new refineries, such as Abreu e Lima, in Pernambuco, as well as the nitrogen fertilizer plants in Uberaba (MG), also from Petrobras. This way, the factors sulfur, urea and ammonia end up becoming decisive in the decision to open new mines in Brazil, as they form part of the final products formulation. Source: Mineral Summary 2014 - DNPM/MME