Rogue Climate Trends &
Projections – Primer Notes
Alan Journet
NOTE to potential presenter:
The purpose of this presentation is to make the main point that the future (projections) are simply an
extension of current and historic (last century) trends and that climate change is here and now. The
sequence follows my logic, but I appreciate that for others, a different sequence might seem more
logical. My sequence is – models and projections, temperature, precipitation, drought, rainfall patterns,
snow, snow and rain, snowmelt and stream flow, wildfires, weather chaos, pause for responses, so
what, biomes and agriculture, future biome potential, the global context history, reality vs deniers, US
history, global projections, Adaptation / Mitigation, causes, What We Can Do, Questions.
This ppt contains abundant use of animation. It is suggested that you use the animation as indicated by
the ‘+’ rather than revealing all text and images and talking through it once displayed. The reason for
this is because the animation technique serves a critical purpose: it allows the audience to see ideas
only when the presenter is ready. When slides are shown where all text is present from the point the
slide appears, audience members will read the text and ignore the presenter.
The overall message of the presentation is that long term projections are merely extensions of current
trends i.e. climate change is here and now.
1
Title – A pdf file of this ppt is linked on the SOCAN web site as indicated. This lacks the
animations present in the ppt. To presenter: Please feel free to change the name and contact
information to yours – (or add your name and contact if you wish) but be prepared to answer
later questions from audience members – (doesn’t happen often, but might). Otherwise, please
also feel free to leave mine posted.
2
The Key Messages
Some audience members will nap during the talk. This slide is so
nappers will still know what the talk was about – even if they miss it.
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For potential nappers, I’m letting the cat out of the bag and identifying the
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Messages
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Identify the first message
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Identify the second message
3
Historic Trends vs Future Projections Focus on trends versus projections – urging audience
members to pay attention to the constant switch back and forth between them. As you are
presenting – it is as well to underline when you are on trends vs projections as often as possible
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This presentation is based on trends – actual data from the last century and projections
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Projections are based on GCMs (stands for both General Circulation Model and Global Climate
Model used interchangeably.
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A reasonable question to ask is whether the projections are meaningful = credible. Worth
making the point here that science is a skeptical endeavor and it’s ok to be skeptical until the
point when ideas are confirmed by the evidence.
4
Accuracy of Climate Models A reasonable test to determine if these GCMs are reliable is to ask
how well they produce values that reflect historic trends when the models are run over past
records. If the models produce simulations close to actual data we are confident in them and
can use them to project the future; if not, we would reject them as meaningless.
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We will look at two sets of data in which historic actual data are compared to simulated data
where the period 1901– 1950 is defined as the baseline (i.e. the average of this period is set at
0)
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The first comparison will be between actual data (in black) and the GCM simulations of those
data (range in orange, mean in red) where the simulation INCLUDES human influences on the
temperature through Greenhouse Gas emissions.
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What we can see is that the simulated data (red) follow the actual data (black) pretty closely.
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Now we will look at the same actual data, but compare them (black) with GCM simulations
when human influence is eliminated (blue).
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Now the simulation totally fails to follow the actual data. The conclusion I suggest is that the
GCM simulations reflect actual data well, but ONLY if they include human influence (emissions
from our burning fossil fuels and deforesting). If we pretend human influence is inconsequential,
our GCM simulations are a failure.
5
NOAA Medford Temperature Trend Now we will start looking at actual local data – provided to
SOCAN by the US Weather Service in Medford (NOAA National Oceanographic and Aeronautical
Administration).
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The actual historic trends for Medford is clear. During the last century the rise was 0.0185
degrees F per year for a century increase of 1.86⁰F. Underline that these are not speculations,
these are ACTUAL data.
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NOAA Medford Min / Max Trend What might be of interest is to see from where that rise
seems to come.
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First we see the minimum rising 2.8⁰F for the century,
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While the maximum has risen less than 1 Degree; clearly the night-time lows are rising more
than the daytime highs.
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Rogue Basin Trend and Projections We will now look at the history and projections for the
Rogue Valley Basin as a whole (an area including higher elevation valley slopes up to – for
example – Prospect where it is cooler than in the valley floor.
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We start by looking at historical patterns from actual data with the 1961-1990 averages
identified as a baseline for comparisons to consider in a minute.
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Now we look at projections from three models. These models come from Australia (Blue CSIRO = Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), Britain (Red the
University f East Anglia Climate Research Unit), and Japan (Red – MIROC). These data come
from the United States Forest Service Mapped Atmospheric Plant Soils Systems Research Team
(OSUE, Corvallis) using the ‘Business As Usual scenarios from the three research agencies.
‘Business As Usual’ means that globally we continue doing exactly what we have been doing to
address climate change – pretty much nothing. It is evident that all three models suggest a
distinctly similar warming trend.
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Above Projected Data Let’s now look at some actual data from these projections. We will
explore two periods in the future: 2035-2045 and 2075-2085 – looking at annual averages and
seasonal patterns – because the latter are important for natural, agricultural, and forestry
systems.
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Firstly, let’s look at 2035 – 2045.
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We see average annual temperature rising up to 4 degrees F, with winters rising probably less
(up to 3.5⁰F) than summer (up to 6⁰F).
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August, meanwhile, the hottest month of the year, could rise up to 7.5⁰F by this period. NOTE:
it’s getting closer – now only 20 years away.
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Now for 2075-2085
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We see an average rise maybe as high as over 8 degrees F, with winters rising as much as 6 and
summer nearly 12⁰F.
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August, now, might reach as much as nearly 17 degrees warmer. If you think last August was
hot, imagine coming back in 2080.
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wunderground History & Projectiosn Ashland & Medford Interestingly, while the previous data
come from a source not everyone can access, fortunately for us, the Weather Underground (a
web weather source like the Weather Channel), provides historic and projected climate patterns
for most weather stations in the US. We’ll be looking at several of these. Let’s start with
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Ashland
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and Medford. We can see historic and projected patterns similar to those we have already seen
for these two cities.
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wunderground history and projectiosn for Grants Pass In the interest of equal opportunity, let’s
see Grants Pass
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We can see again, a parallel pattern. Anyone visiting downtown Grants Pass has probably seen
the sign over Main Street…
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Indeed it is, and it will there will be more of it to come in the years ahead.
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NOAA Medford 100 Degree Days History While annual and seasonal patterns are important,
extreme conditions can be even more critical – especially for those with health conditions and
for natural, agricultural and forestry systems. We’ll consider days over 100 Degrees F.
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The historic trend for Medford is of an increase from about 7 to over 20 days per year above 100
Degrees F.
12
US 100 Degree Days history and projections We’ll now focus on the future comparing historic
patterns (note similar about 10 days per years to the NOAA data seen a moment ago)…
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To late century assuming we control emissions somewhat. Note for our area a slight increase to
maybe 20 or so day even with some effort to control emissions.
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And now if we continue Business As Usual we see our region could have some 30 – 45 days over
100 Degrees F. Note that these may not be consecutive days, but at some point during the
summer as much as a month and a half of days may be over 100 Degrees F
13
US Historic Precipitation Let us turn our attention now to precipitation – another critical
climatic variable…
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Looking at the nation as a whole, we can see a range of historical patterns from one extreme
(40% dryer – brown) to 40% wetter (Blue).
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Focusing on the SW Oregon we find a historic pattern of little or no change (i.e. white)
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With an overall national increase of 5%
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Amid considerable regional variability
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NOAA Medford Historic Precipitation Let’s look at Medford annual precipitation averages…
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Where we see a slight increase, maybe – though this is probably not significantly different from
flat.
15
Rogue Basin Precipitation History and Projections Let’s look at the Rogue Basin again….where
the historic trend of average temperature is pretty much flat
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And projections – though variable among models, are also pretty flat. Bu8t note this is annual
average.
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wunderground history and projections Ashland and Grants Pass And now, for Ashland, we can
see a historical slight drop with a projected flat trend through the century… And for Grants Pass,
the future flat trend is preceded by a historic slight rise – though again possibly not significantly
different from flat.
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NOAA Medford Seasonal History The Seasonal historic pattern for Medford shows a flat winter
trend…
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Maybe a slight spring increase…
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A flat summer trend…
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And a flat fall trend.
18
US Precipitation projections Projections for precipitation patterns, however, are quite variable
nationally…
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With a Southern Oregon winter increase of maybe 10 – 20%
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Spring trend about flat…
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But a summer trend towards considerably (20%) dryer. Pause to reflect on the current
Mediterranean Southern Oregon climate (winter wet – summer dry) and how dry it currently
is…to think about what 20% dryer than that would mean – in a hotter climate.
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Fall again is about flat.
19
Drought Western US Data from the Drought Monitor show that Southern Oregon is
experiencing Severe Drought (which has been the case for more than 6 months) and
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Jackson / Jospehinr County Drought Declarations Has resulted in Jackson County being
declared a Drought Emergency Area.
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A measure of future projections is the Palmer Drought Severity Index (DSI).
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This measure future likely trends over 30 year (=360 month) periods – again employing the
Business As Usual scenario.
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The range is from green (most months less drought-stricken) - to red (most months more
drought-stricken).
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We can see considerable variability around the nation, with the northwest and northeast
looking the most attractive – or better – the least unattractive. We might well be enjoying
climate refugees from around the nation just as our temperature climbs and water availability
declines.
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Note how we might be a little less drought-stricken in the short term (though in reality the
evidence reported earlier suggests this is not panning out),
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Focus on future periods and id patterns
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Focus on future periods and id patterns over the longer term. Worth pausing to note what is
likely for Utah, Colorado, Arizona…
22
Historic Precipitation Patterns In addition to seasonal pattern, also important is how the rain
the falls arrives…In this case we’re looking at historical pattern in frequency in heavy downpours
(1958-2007) around the nation.
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See variability around the nation with
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PNW experiencing 12% increase in heavy downpours –
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Which cause floods and soil erosion rather than replenishment of soil moisture in dry soils.
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Historic Precipitation Patterns Now we look at the amount of rain falling in those heavy
downpours
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Again we sew considerable historic variability around the country
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With a 16% increase in the PNW
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Again, the outcome is likely to be floods and soil erosion rather than moisture replenishment of
soil.
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Precipitation Pattern Projections Now we’ll look at projections for late century
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Looking at two emissions scenarios – light meaning some redress of the trend in emissions, and
high meaning business as usual.
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We see a reduction in light rain days and
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And an increase in the heavy rain days.
25
Summary of related climate effects to be discussed…
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First three
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Next three
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NOAA Historic snowfall – Medford Let’s start with snowfall in Medford
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The pattern is clearly one of diminishing snowfall. If you talk to folks who have lived here for
decades, you’ll hear them complain that they sued to be able to play in the snow, but cannot
any longer. Over the century snowfall has dropped by about 50%.
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wunderground snowfall Grants Pass, the same pattern.
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SNOTEL March Snowpack for Oregon shows a universal pattern of reduction. It’s just one year,
but since it’s a trend we have a problem… this is because the PNW has historically used higher
elevation (Cascade and Northern Siskiyous) snowpack as the ‘natural reservoir’ source of
irrigation water during summer and fall.
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Snowfall/Rainfall Trends But we’re seeing a trend indicated here
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Identify it
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Ditto
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Snowpack Projections are dire
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Identify the trend
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Image of Mt. Ashland – well known locally, at least because it’s a
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Ski area. The manager at Mt. Ashland complained that this year snow as below average. Like so
many folks, he is missing the key point: historical averages are meaningless. To predict the
future we must look at trends.
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While high elevation Mt Shasta has not suffered. We expect that it will.
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Consequences are more than purely recreational, however – irrigation water.
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Crater Lake & Applegate Lake Data Crater Lake NP records dating back to the parks beginning in
the 1930s
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The trend is clear – a drop of 25% to this decade.
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A similar pattern has been seen in the Northern Siskiyous which supplies Applegate Lake and the
Applegate Valley.
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History of Snow Water Equivalent at higher elevations Declining snow has serious
consequences. One measure is the water content of the snow as winter ends – known as the
Snow Water Equivalent. Some snow is dry, other snow is wet, so all snow is not the same.
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Measured as red when water content is declining and blue when increasing
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The historical trends is decreasing snow water equivalent through most of this area.
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Reiterates the reservoir importance.
33
Spring snowmelt trends As we warm, winter snow melts earlier – but there is less of it…This is
critical in the west.
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We have already seen spring snowmelt starting already up to 20 Days earlier.
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In the future both stream flow and both the timing of peak flow and amount of water flowing
will advance further.
34
Historic and Projected peak Stream Flow Let’s look at timing of peak stream flow in the western
US
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Already has advanced 20 days
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And the future suggests an even greater advance…
35
Pacific Northwest Peak Run-off timing This leads to an overall advance in timing and flow peak
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Warming and loss of snowpack
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Lead to an earlier and lower run-off peak. In some western locations this is projected to
advance even to November/December of the previous year.
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Present peak run-off
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Future peak run-off earlier and lower
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And late run-off lower – exactly when agriculture needs it most
36
Wildfire Historic Patterns And then there is the question of wildfire….Does anyone think that if
the temperature in this room were raised 1 degree F they would feel it very much?
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Turns out the difference between a very bad fire year and a ‘normal’ fire year is just that 1
degree F. ≈ 0.5⁰C. The overall pattern may have been much hotter summers but not so much
hotter winters, but on average that 1 Degrees F makes a great deal of difference.
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Forestry studies tell us that high fire occurs when the season is warmer and snowmelt is earlier.
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Exactly the trends discusses a minute ago for recent history and our future – it will get worse…
37
Wildfire History Continuing the wildfire theme…
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Additional patterns are…
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The number of large (over 1,000 acre) wildfires is increasing
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And two the length of the wildfire season has extended 2.5 months since the 1970s. Some area
are now having a 12 month fire season. In January this year we had a red flag alert meaning high
fire danger, a never previously experienced here.
38
Wildfire Projections Finally, let’s look at a projection. We can expect the fire season to expand
further with increased frequency, but what about area burned….
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Probably for us something like a 200 – 300% increase in area burned by mid-century when the
temperature rises some 2.5 – 6.5⁰F
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I know you can’t read this – but the message is this: The outcomes discusses today are not
inevitable. They will occur if we continue Business As Usual – meaning we refuse to accept
climate change and its human causes and thus fail to act responsibly.
39
Regional Trends Summary Let’s remind ourselves of local projected consequences. Beside the
increasing temperature, we will see:
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Less snow, transition from snow to rain, earlier snowmelt
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Flashier floods in spring and winter, Dry streams in summer, increased risk of wildfires.
40
NOAA Local Growing Season History Let’s look at the local growing season.
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The number of Frost Free
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and Freeze Free days are increasing
41
NOAA Local Growing Season History As are…
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The number of growing degree days (i.e. Days x Degrees above a critical value of 50 Degrees F)
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While the number of Freezing Days is declining.
42
Climate Chaos – The Jetstream , let’s look at ‘climate chaos and whacky weather’… A factor
profoundly affecting our weather is the Polar Jet Stream flowing west to east because the Earth
rotates the other way. One of the many global oscillations influencing the climate regionally and
globally (El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal
Oscillation) is the Polar Oscillation
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When in its Positive Phase, the jet stream flows straight separating the cold Polar Air from the
warmer Temperate Air further south.
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When in its negative phase, the Jetstream wig-wags up and down. This brings cold air south (the
so-called Polar Vortex) and sends warm air north.
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The oscillation is a stochastic = random switch or irregular length from polar low pressure (air
rising) to high pressure (air falling).
43
The Jetsream Continued Another feature recently suggested to be having an impact is the
warming Arctic. We know - for various understood reasons – the Arctic is warming faster than
the Temperate zone.
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This is thought to be an impact on the sub-polar jet stream – seen here along with its less wellknown counter-part the sub-tropical jetsream.
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Let’s depict this on a satellite image….
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The straight, fast flowing jetsream. It is argued, flows thus
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Because of the difference between the cold Arctic and warm temperate zones. This separates
cold Arctic from warm temperate air. But as the Arctic is warming rapidly and the difference in
temperature diminishing…
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The jetsream wig-wags more profoundly..
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Allowing cold air south (the Polar Vortex, again)
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And warm air north.
44
The Messages Just in case you are emerging from that nap, here are the messages again…
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We are already experiencing climate change
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Future trends will just be the same trends – only worse….
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UNLESS WE CHOOSE TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM
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Denying the evidence just delays action
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It’s about Inter-generational Justice; do we care about the future, or not?
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Pause to invite participant thoughts – try to wait for some responses….and allow exchange
among audience members.
This is a good point to end if there is no time for the rest….
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So What? Let’s Explore so what – why should we care….
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The question…
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These are what we call ‘natural ecosystems – or Biomes From top left…Boreal Coniferous Forest,
Deciduous Forest (this in Utah), Tropical Forest, Desert, Grassland, Tundra, Savana.
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Biome Distribution Question is: what determines where these occur?
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Two primary factors – temperature and precipitation – not surprisingly the very variables most
impacted by climate change…
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We can array all the world’s biomes on a simple chart with temperature on the vertical axis
(note low at top to high at bottom) and precipitation on the horizontal. What this is telling us is
this: If you tell me what the average temperature and precipitation is anywhere on Earth, I can
tell you what biome you’ll find there. I cannot tell you what species because these vary from
region to region but I can tell you the general kind of biological system you’ll find.
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Let’s ‘imagine’ we’re n the Rogue Valley with this combination of conditions…we’re in a
woodland / grassland edge. Now suppose environmental conditions change as projected….
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Let’s imagine a 5⁰C increase in temperature…
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We’re moving conditions towards Thorn/woodland / hot compromising survival of our current
ecosystem.
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Now let’s adjust precipitation… upwards
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And we’re moving towards a forest condition
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Or down…
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And we’re moving towards a hot desert.
47
So What – Again Again – So What? If you don’t care about lions and tigers and bears (Oh My!)
why should you worry?
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These climate patterns determine the distribution of the biomes on the planet…
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Which influences where all the global biodiversity exists….
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But this is also where we practice our agriculture and our forestry. For example, the North
American grain belt of wheat and corn occurs where once there was grassland.
48
Future of Biomes Let’s take a look at the future for these biomes. Williams and Jackson mapped
future environment conditions in relation to where current biomes exist and asked if current
biomes could find anywhere appropriate within 500 km of their current location. Under two
scenarios: 850 ppm and 550 ppm carbon dioxide. The former is probably where we’ll be before
the end of the century given Business As Usual, while the second represents some (minimal)
action to redress the problem.
Five hundred km is an arbitrary but reasonable distance. Biomes cannot hop on a ‘plane and
move anywhere on the planet; their relocation is limited by their own ability to disperse
(through seeds etc.). 500 km is probably a reasonable, probably overly optimistic, distance for
relocation within 100 years.
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In the forthcoming figures Blue means the probability of finding a location within 500 km for any
given current biome I 1, while red means 0 probability.
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On the left (the Business As Usual scenario) we see the biomed of Africa and northern South
America are essentially doomed. The same is true for much of Asia and Northern Australia.
While the right hand scenario is a little better for Africa and S. America, it’s not much better.
It’s important t appreciate that the same can be said for our current agricultural systems. We
can see where the greatest threats to humanity will occur.
49
Global Historic Temperature Trend We’ll now look at some general patterns in trends and
projections starting with the global historic pattern of temperature. This is the classic chart
produced annually by NASA’s (GISS). Black connected rectangles are annual averages, red
represents a 5 year running mean – which has to stop two years before the final datum points,
called a ‘spline function.’
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Green bars represent 95% confidence limits for the averages – notice these narrow with time –
as one would expect with increasing confidence the closer to the present we get.
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Data are from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
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This indicates the baseline for the graph - it is set at 0 with before below and after above this
baseline.
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An 1880 – 1900 baseline would be here (another 0.2⁰C below the graphic baseline.
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The trend is clear: for this period, every year after 1998 is hotter than every year before that.
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Since the 1970 s the Earth has warmed 1.3⁰F, since the 1880s app 2.0, and since the 1750s, well
over 2.0.
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Notice the greatest warming has been post mid 1970s with 1998 an unusually hot year – even
above the trend. This was an El Niño year and probably was the year that generated the most
attention to the trend.
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Although the trend post 2000 is consistently above the pre 2000 pattern 2008 was a cooler year
than the early years of the decade.
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Then 2010 – another El Niño year was a record breaker again
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2013 was in the middle of the post 2000 hot set, and represents a trend of warming starting in
2011. Early data for 2014 suggest this warming is continuing.
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Identifying trends in the data There are two ways to look at these data: 1 is to recognize the
upward trend – which is what climate scientists do; the other is to see a series of stable or
declining phases in that upward trend and cling to each - arguing that warming has stopped.
Each time this claim is made, however, it is negated by subsequent data returning to the overall
upward trend.
51
US Historic Data Data for the US over the same period exhibit a similar general pattern…
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Though 2012 was by 1.03⁰F a record above the previous 1998 record. Usually records are broken
by 0.1⁰F, not a full degree.
52
2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Projections to 2100 The 2013 IPCC report
provided projections not only through the century
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In centigrade,
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not only through the century which is what we have been accustomed to seeing - but beyond
that to 2300.
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Converted to Fahrenheit we can see that Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the
Business As Usual model, could take us over 21 Degrees F – a level that would decimate natural
systems on the planet leaving us outside the range for current natural systems. We can also see
that the blue line – representing substantial effort to address our emissions, leaves us above
current levels by 2300.
53
Adaptation and Mitigation In dealing with the future, we first must recognize that there is
warming and this will continue – to this we will have to adapt. We must prepare for the
inevitable.
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Which involves managing ourselves as best we can to minimize threats, and
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Preparing ourselves and our natural systems (as best we can) to withstand the changes that will
come
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But, in addition…
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We MUST avoid that unmanageable 20⁰F warming projected for 2300 if we continue Business As
Usual. This underlines the fallacy of arguing we should plan just to adapt to the change that’s
coming. Truth is, we cannot adapt – we must avoid the worst case scenario if we care about
future generations.
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This means reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases….
54
Causes of the Warming So what is the problem?
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Greenhouse gases released by our activities
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These being Carbon dioxide (the biggest current concern), Methane (fast catching it up), and
oxides of nitrogen.
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So, what do we do that that results in these emissions?
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Generate electricity in power plants (= utilities),
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manufacture materials in our industries,
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and travel around using internal combustion engines.
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But, not everything we do has the same effect…
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Carbon dioxide
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Comes mainly from the three process mentioned above,
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Methane, meanwhile, come mainly from agricultural activities and fossil fuel extraction (though
with fracked natural gas extraction, shipment, and use and export, this is climbing). Note this is
34 x as bad as Carbon dioxide as a warming agent,
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Finally, Oxides of nitrogen (at nearly 300 X the impact of Carbon dioxide) come from agriculture
and land use change (deforestation).
55
Rogue Valley Greenhouse Gas emission Sources Let’s look at the Rogue Valley and see the
pattern here – measured in terms of C emissions.
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A study conducted by the Good Company released in 2011 revealed local emission sources
revealed as a pie chart.
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The biggest emission culprit is Materials –
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Energy used making the stuff we buy and shipping it to us (if it’s made elsewhere, the energy to
get it to us is charged against us),
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Includes things like the clothes we wear, and the cell ‘phones, TVs and general stuff we buy.
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Next is Transportation
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This comprises our local and long-distance trips, use of public and commercial transportation,
and carrying local freight locally (like veggies from the farm to the market)
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Finally is energy
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Used in our homes (lighting / heating / appliances) and businesses (lighting / heating / etc) from
fossil fuels used
56
Areas to Address Reminder
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Energy consumption, Transportation, Stuff.
57
Projected Electrical Energy Remedies Another study by the Eugenebased Good Company
on Rogue Valley explores electrical energy solutions (from above this represents 24% of total
local C emissions).
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On the left is the electrical consumption of Jackson & Josephine Counties totaling 3 million
megawatt hours annually.
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Of this, 900,000 mwh are generated from
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Renewable sources (mainly hydro-electric), about 30% total need.
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Remainder is from non-renewable sources – fossil fuels – coal, oil, gas.
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Totaling 2.1 Million mwh
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Energy efficiency increases could amount to 718,000 mwh.
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This
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Would reduce
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Non-renewable energy needs by that amount
+
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Then, by encouraging an array of non-renewable generation techniques [Anaerobic Digestion
(=AD) Micro-hydro, Solar, Wind, and Biomass] another 229,000 mwh could be generated, \
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reducing the non-renewable need further
+
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The potential contribution of energy efficiency increase and greater renewable generation sums
to nearly 62% of total current electrical energy need.
+
But a better way to think of this is
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All this would reduce the RV electrical energy need by 1.2 M mwh or 57% of current need.
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Energy accounts for 24% of our regional greenhouse gas emissions. About 75% of this (= 18% of
the total) is for electrical generation. Reducing the Rogue Valley C emissions from electrical
energy generation 43% would result in a GHG saving of 43% of that 18% (= nearly 8%). While
this may not seem a huge dent, it can be achieved largely by efforts that save us money.
58
We have Choices In considering the problem, we have choices…
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Back in the day, we focused only on money
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When the budget was positive, we were happy.
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Now, life is more complex…
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We need to add an energy accounting
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And a Greenhouse Gas accounting
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Especially emissions of CO2
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Leading to a carbon accounting – assessing our carbon footprint.
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Finally, we have to have
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Hope that we can really do what we need to do in time.
59
Closing slide pause for questions
Helpful Notes For Audience:
Conversion of C  F is 9/5; an app. doubling serves as a ballpark.
Mwh = Megawatt hours. Where a watt hour is using a watt of electricity for 60 minutes.
M mwh = million megawatts hours.