Tutorial Peter Grünwald Center Wiskunde & Informatica Amsterdam; Matematisch Instituut – Universiteit Leiden Universal Prediction UNIVERSAL DATA COMPRESSION Minimum description length Prediction, learning and games Related to Bayesian Inference “Objectiv subjectivity” Kolmogorov complexity Vovk-Shafer approach to probability Example: weather forecast Prediction strategy Combine predictions so that we do better than individual Universe is a set of candidate strategies Gambling interpretation of probability Gambling game with reinvestments You cannot be better of any of candidate strategies Paul the Octopus perfect predictor Follow the leader is the bad strategy If of predictor is FIFA official for good reson unlike huge numbers of random predictors – OVERFITTING Bayes theorem ON-LINE PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION Prediction strategy = DISTRIBUTION Conditional probabilities Log loss & likelihood Prediction strategy P (probability distribution) How fast you learn (here learning is central) For uncountable sets you prior belief LEARNING IN RELATIVE SENSE WITHOUT ANY ASSUMPTIONS (about data) HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING IN BIOINFORMATICS Baysean algorithm works better than follow the leader Generalization of Bayesian Universal Prediction with 0/1 loss Learning weight “The older you get, the less attention you pay to everything that happens in your life” The HEDGE algorithm used for calculating electricity consumptions in great Paris great Region Multi-armed Bandit & other limited feedback Learning the learning rate MDL MINIMUM DESCRIPTION LENGTH Data compression Log-loss prediction Predictors – statistical models Nested Models Meta-priors Minimax optimum predictions Ockham + Luckiness Objective component Subjective component Lars Wienbrandt The FPGA-based High-Performance Computer RIVYERA for Applications in Bioinformatics Lars Wienbrandt FPGA-based high-performance computer RIVYERA Puzzle of DNA pieces “I think I found a corner piece” … cartoon Interpretation Databases searches VHDL language Parallel computing 128 FPGA Memory Protein alignment is different from DNA alignment Modelling genotypes Pairwise information Contingency table – pairs of genotypes Q: length of query sequence A: p to 500 Q: Why no improvement Q Can you go beyond pairwise to multiple alignments Programming FPGA is difficult, most computationally intense Q: Maybe a possible language could apply Programming assembler vs. C optimizing compiler Q: programming for RIVYERA VHTL compilation takes hours Claudio Zandron Using Membrane Features to Compute P systems (introduced by Paun) discrete nondeterministic Rules applied in maximally parallel way Delta means membrane is destroyed Only one outer skin-membrane Active membranes Polarization (positive, neutral, negative) Division of membranes P systems web page Q: how this compares to process calculi? M. T. Godziszewski and D. KalociĆski Computational Hardness of Mathematical Concepts and Algorithmic Learnability Learnability or cognitive accessibility Mind-changing procedure Cognitive accessability of Provability Determinig consistency of axiomatic system with recursive set of axioms Mind changes and stabilize on the right N. Dershowitz and E. Falkovich Generic Parallel Algorithms Levels of abstractions Physicist Molecules Organism Biology Ecology Algorithms All sorts of algorithms apart from Turing Basic operations 1 dim TM is not generic It works on strings An algorithm is a finite way of describing state transitions Knuth algorithms before Turing Gdc algorithms euclides Geometry compass Ruler Eve’s Algorithm of dividing aples Finite describes transitions STATE ENCAPSULATES ALL RELEVANT DATA AND OPERATIONS NECESSARY FOR TH ENEXT STATE Not only trings but any data structures. ABSTRACT STATE GENERICH PARALLEL ALGORITHMS ANALOGUE ALGORITHMS CONTINUous time Oliver Bournez The finite description & finite transition = effectiveness Tractable algorithms GENERIC COMPLEXITY Q: Gurewich and Blas