Theory of Change
Facilitator’s Guide – DRAFT
Prepared by Matthew Fornoff and Laurie Starr
Revised December 2014
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program is the USAID/Food for
Peace-funded learning mechanism that generates, captures, disseminates, and applies the
highest quality information, knowledge, and promising practices in development food
assistance programming, to ensure that more communities and households benefit from the
U.S. Government’s investment in fighting global hunger. Through technical capacity building, a
small grants program to fund research, documentation and innovation, and an in-person and
online community of practice (the Food Security and Nutrition [FSN] Network), The TOPS
Program empowers food security implementers and the donor community to make lasting
impact for millions of the world’s most vulnerable people.
Led by Save the Children, The TOPS Program is a consortium program drawing on the expertise
of its partners: CORE Group (knowledge management), Food for the Hungry (social and
behavioral change), Mercy Corps (agriculture and natural resource management), and TANGO
International (monitoring and evaluation). Save the Children brings its experience and expertise
in commodity management, gender, and nutrition and food technology, as well as the
management of this 5-year (2010–2015) US$20 million award.
Disclaimer:
The Technical and Operational Performance Support (TOPS) Program was made possible by the
generous support and contribution of the American people through the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID). The contents of this guide were created by The TOPS
Program and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. Government.
Recommended Citation:
Fornoff, M., and L. Starr. 2014. Theory of Change Facilitator’s Guide (December 2014 Edition).
Washington, DC: TANGO International and The TOPS Program.
Contact:
The TOPS Program
c/o Save the Children
2000 L Street, NW, Suite 500
Washington, DC 20036
info@thetopsprogram.org
www.thetopsprogram.org
Contents
Contents
Abbreviations and Acronyms.............................................................................................................. i
Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1
Note to Facilitators .......................................................................................................................... 1
List of Key Terms .............................................................................................................................. 4
List of Items Needed ........................................................................................................................ 5
Sample Agenda for the 5-Day Training ............................................................................................ 6
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis .......................................... 12
About Module 1 ............................................................................................................................. 12
Module 1 Part 1: Overview of Theory of Change .......................................................................... 12
Module 1 Part 2: Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods ............................................................. 21
Module 1 Part 3: Data Analysis ...................................................................................................... 30
Small Group Activity 1.1................................................................................................................. 35
Works Cited in Module 1 ............................................................................................................... 38
Additional Information for Module 1 ............................................................................................ 39
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees................................................................................... 42
About Module 2 ............................................................................................................................. 42
Module 2 Part 1: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees.................................................................... 42
Small Group Activity 2.1................................................................................................................. 49
Works Cited in Module 2 ............................................................................................................... 51
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions ............................................................................................. 52
About Module 3 ............................................................................................................................. 52
Module 3 Part 1: Converting the Problem Tree to a Solution Tree ............................................... 53
Small Group Activity 3.1................................................................................................................. 56
Module Part 2: Pathways of Change and Assumptions ................................................................. 57
Small Group Activity 3.2................................................................................................................. 63
Plenary: Theory of Change Q&A .................................................................................................... 65
Works Cited in Module 3 ............................................................................................................... 65
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change .................................................................................... 66
About Module 4 ............................................................................................................................. 66
Module 4 Part 1: Prioritizing Domains of Change.......................................................................... 66
Small Group Activity 4.1................................................................................................................. 69
Module 4 Part 2: Interventions: Assumptions, Risks, and Indicators ............................................ 69
Small Group Activity 4.2................................................................................................................. 79
Works Cited in Module 4 ............................................................................................................... 80
Module 5: Using the Theory of Change ............................................................................................. 81
About Module 5 ............................................................................................................................. 81
Module 5 Part 1: Using the Theory of Change ............................................................................... 81
Small Group Activity 5.1................................................................................................................. 85
Works Cited in Module 5 ............................................................................................................... 86
Final Wrap-Up.................................................................................................................................. 87
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Abbreviations and Acronyms
AIDS
acquired immune deficiency syndrome
CAHW
community animal health workers
CBO
community-based organization
DFID
United Kingdom Department for International Development
DRC
Democratic Republic of Congo
FFP
USAID Office of Food for Peace
FGD
focus group discussion
HIV
human immunodeficiency virus
kg
kilogram(s)
KII
key information interview
km
kilometer(s)
logframe
logistical framework
M&E
monitoring and evaluation
NGO
nongovernmental organization
OECD
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
ORT
oral rehydration therapy
Q&A
question and answer
TOC
theory of change
i
Introduction
Introduction
While many development practitioners, evaluators, and other stakeholders are familiar with
logical frameworks (logframes) and other similar planning and evaluation tools, but the theory
of change (TOC) currently is less utilized. It can be an incredibly useful instrument, though.
Compared to other processes, a TOC requires more in-depth, conceptual analysis of issues and
programs and, if implemented correctly, focuses on identifying the outcomes that must be met
in order to achieve a given solution rather than actions that may lead to target outcomes.
This TOC training curriculum contains five modules that explain the process of developing a
complete TOC to support program planning, implementation, and monitoring. The objectives
for the five-module course are to:

Develop a TOC for a program through thorough analysis of primary data and identification
of problems and solutions

Understand how the TOC is used in planning, implementing, and evaluating development
programs
The primary target audiences for this course are field practitioners and other individuals
involved in planning, implementing, and evaluating programs. The course also can be helpful
for stakeholders in the public sector, private agencies, and non-governmental and international
organizations that have responsibilities or interests in holistic programming.
Note to Facilitators
Developing a strong TOC can take weeks or even months. Although three options are presented
below to allow for flexibility with available time, we highly recommend devoting 5 or more days
to the curriculum rather than fewer days. A 5-day workshop hardly offers enough time to
understand the process of creating a TOC and to understand how to use the final product, how
to refine it periodically, and how it can be used with existing projects; fewer than 5 days will
compromise the learning-by-doing pedagogy embodied in the TOC training, which participants
in pilot sessions found very helpful to comprehend the TOC process.
If available time does not allow for the full 5 or more day curriculum, shorter trainings are still
likely to engender significant discussion from workshop participants. You will have to decide
which sessions to drop. Some suggestions from our experience facilitating this training are in
the table below.
1
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
If you have…
1 day or less
3 days
5 days or more
Focus on the overview and
review of TOC presentations in
Modules 1 and 5. Incorporate
group discussion, expert Q&A,
and evaluation of existing TOCs
as time allows.
This is the most difficult time
frame because you will have to
balance going to detail with
fitting the training into a short
time. Rather than having
participants develop a problem
tree, a solution tree, and a TOC,
perhaps provide them with a
problem tree to convert to a
solution tree and a completed
solution tree that they can
refine to a TOC.
Proceed through the complete
curriculum. If you have more
than 5 days, expand group work
time or add more discussion or
Q&A time.
Using This Guide
This guide is organized around five modules, each of which can be completed in one 8-hour
day, including two 15-minute breaks and an hour for lunch. The modules begin with an
overview of the entire process of creating a theory of change and progress through all the steps
necessary to develop the final product. The curriculum has been crafted based on previous
experience in program development and TOC development and feedback from previous
training.
Each module includes an overview of what will be covered in that module. Then, learning
objectives, PowerPoint presentations, and handouts and other materials are provided for each
presentation and small group activity. The guide follows the corresponding PowerPoint
presentations and includes slide numbers and headings so a facilitator can follow along easily.
Small group activities are incorporated in the order and place at which they should occur, as
they correspond generally with a presentation. Every session also has a suggested duration,
which can be adapted given your time frame and participant’s level of understanding.
As with the agenda, you may adapt any part of this training to fit your needs. If you have a
better problem tree example or a better matrix for organizing assumptions and risks, feel free
to incorporate it into your training.1 If you elect to have participants carry out field work to
collect sample data or devote time to background reading, this will only enhance the learning
experience.
1
Please note that the December 2014 version of PowerPoint slides contain some detailed graphics with small font.
If you have better examples with larger fonts, please feel free to use your own examples. If not, we advise that you
provide participants with a full page printout of the slide for reference.
2
Introduction
In addition, we incorporated some facilitation ideas and tips that may help you throughout the
training when explaining concepts or helping groups move forward through an activity. These
are in double-bordered and orange-highlighted text boxes, similar to the one below.
Facilitator: If you use small groups, provide a facilitator for each small group. Participants
often have questions specific to their group’s work, and having a guide along the way is
useful.
Background Reading
We strongly advise that the facilitator of this workshop be well-versed in theory of change and
program planning. However, if the facilitator is not an expert or simply wishes for some
refresher material and background reading, we recommend the following:

Anderson, A. 2005. The community builder’s approach to theory of change: A practical guide
to theory development. The Aspen Institute: New York, NY.

CARE. 2012. Peacebuilding with impact: Defining theories of change. CARE International UK:
London.

Taplin, D., and Clark, H. 2012. Theory of change basics: A primer on theory of change.
ActKnowledge: New York, NY.

Vogel, I. 2012. Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development: Review
report. For UK Department of International Development.
Finally
TOC is an evolving concept in program design. Therefore, you may encounter other methods for
creating and using the process and product. In this guide and the accompanying materials, we
have presented one method that aligns to the requirements for USAID’s Office of Food for
Peace (FFP) efforts. However, feel free to adapt and incorporate other ideas that work for you
into the training.
Similarly, this facilitator guide and the course materials will continue to evolve and be refined as
we learn more, find better ways of instructing, and gain more feedback from future trainings
and expert consultation. If you find pieces missing, holes in the logical flow of the course, or
other gaps, rest assured that we are continually improving and adapting this course.
We welcome feedback on these materials. And, we wish you good luck in future trainings.
3
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
List of Key Terms
Many definitions exist for the terms listed below, and different terms exist for the concepts
described below. Please review the terms and definitions used in this course, noting alignment
to any terms preferred by your organization. If your organization prefers and consistently uses
another term (for example, Impact Pathway instead of Pathway of Change), please feel free to
adapt the materials throughout.
Theory of change – A process that describes a desired change by making explicit the way we
think about a current situation or problem, its underlying causes, the long-term change we
seek, and what needs to happen in order for that change to come about. Also, a product that
shows a set of hypotheses, outcomes, assumptions, and indicators that make up causal
pathways of change needed to bring about a long-term goal.
Domain of change – The broad conditions that must be met in order to achieve a long-term
goal. Typically three to five domains contribute to solving a long-term goal. Also referred to as
key leverage point, strategic objective. As of 2014, the term used by FFP to describe this
concept is purpose.
Pathway of change – A graphic representation of a series of all incremental outcomes and
major breakthroughs that are required within a domain of change to reach the long-term goal.
Also referred to as an Impact Pathway.
Problem/causal analysis – The process of identifying problems and their causes, organizing
these, recognizing cross-causal linkages, and defining an overarching problem, key problems,
underlying causes, and underlying conditions.
Problem tree – The graphic product that is created through the process of problem and causal
analysis.
Problem – A condition or set of conditions that negatively affect people and contribute to
comprised livelihood outcomes. Problems can and typically are both causes and effects of other
conditions.

Overarching problem – The most significant problem facing a defined population, based on
data analysis.
Cause – A condition, action, behavior, belief, or policy that created the circumstance for a
problem to exist among a given population. In this course, we distinguish various types and
levels of causes as:

Key problems – The broad conditions that contribute to an overarching problem.

Underlying cause – Significant and specific contributors to identified problems which are
often the effects of other causes.
4
Introduction

Underlying/resulting conditions – Social, economic, or political conditions that contribute
to underlying causes and result from a problem (i.e., the cycle of vulnerability).
Solution/outcome – The condition that must exist in order to claim that a problem has been
solved. A solution or outcome is not an action, but rather is a state of being or existence. For
example:

Breakthrough – An outcome that represents a significant leap forward or advance that is
not easily reversed in a pathway of change.
Impact population group – The group that a program aims to positively impact by assisting
them to overcome the underlying causes leading to their current status (e.g., malnutrition,
poverty, social exclusion).
Target population – The group whom a particular program strategy or intervention might focus
on in order to affect the impact population group. Ideally this is the same as the impact
population group, but it may be different (e.g., targeting mothers, fathers, and caregivers to
affect children’s nutritional status).
Assumption – Conditions that are beyond the control of the program strategy or project but
that have a relatively high likelihood of occurring.
Risk – Conditions that are beyond the control of a program strategy or intervention and may
negatively affect a program or project but that have a relatively low likelihood of occurring.
Critical key questions for assumptions – Those questions that must be answered in order to
build a strong program strategy. These questions lead to action in program design and help
determine the appropriateness of a response or initiative.
Sustainable livelihood system – A system in which people have adequate and sustainable
access to income and resources necessary to meet basic household needs and sustain natural
resources for future generations.
List of Items Needed
Participants should bring:

Laptop computers

Pens/pencils

An open mind and willingness to learn
5
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Facilitator/host/venue should provide:2

Information prior to meeting (e.g., list of things to bring, agenda, meals provided)

Name tags for participants (with reasonably large font size)

1 projector for facilitators

Laser pointer/remote slide advancer

2 microphones

Tables arranged to accommodate groups of up to 8 participants

Power strips (and electrical outlet) for computers at each group table

4 small projectors for group work (optional; one per group)

Flip charts and markers (2 flip charts per group table, 2 in back of room)

Highlighters (one per participant)

3 pads of large sticky notes (with color variety) for each table

2 medium-tipped black markers per table (it is difficult to get sufficient detail on the sticky
notes with fat-tipped markers)

Printed handouts for each day

Printed data sets (minimum of 1 per every two participants)

Printed evaluation forms for each day

USB drive with all training materials

Access to a printer at the venue
Sample Agenda for the 5-Day Training
This sample agenda can be adjusted as needed; however, please consider the following.

If the workshop will include hands-on activities, groups will need sufficient time to complete
them. The causal analysis and risks/assumptions activities, in particular, tend to require
much discussion, critical thinking, and revision.

The material is dense, so ensure breaks are sufficient in number and duration. At minimum,
schedule one 15-minute break for every 2 hours of workshop (preferably more often).

Factor in adequate time for discussion and questions during small group presentations.
Strong time management skills are needed (e.g., the ability to cut off good discussion by
engaged participants so the process can move forward).

If appropriate, schedule 5–10 minutes in the middle of each day for an energizer activity
that will get participants moving around.
2
This list includes everything that may be needed for this workshop. Of course, not every workshop will need all
items here. It will depend on the agenda, the meeting space, the number of participants, etc.
6
Introduction
Theory of Change Workshop Agenda
[LOCATION]
[DATES]
Facilitators: [NAME(S) AND ORGANIZATION(S)]
[Day and Date]
Day 1 – Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, Data Analysis
Time
Topic
Handouts
8:30–9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00–9:30
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Introduction
Overview and Structure of Workshop
Participant expectations
Printout of corresponding PPT slides
for all of today’s sessions
9:30–10:15
Presentation: Overview of Theory of Change
Objectives:
Handout 1.1. Example TOC
 To have a general understanding of the
components of a theory of change the process of
creating one
 To begin thinking critically how a TOC can be used
to more effectively plan, implement and evaluate
programs
10:15–10:45
Presentation: Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods
Objectives:
Handout_1.2: Sustainable Livelihoods
Framework
 To understand how a conceptual framework, such
as the SLF, can be used as a tool for informing TOC
development and program design
 To provide context for the analysis process
10:45–11:00
Break
11:00–11:30
Presentation: Data Analysis
Data sets
11:30–12:00
Introduce raw data sets and activity; break into small
groups, begin to review and organize the data
Handout_1.3a_List of key questions
Handout_1.3b_livelihoods_matrix
Handout_1.3c_asset_inventory_matrix
12:00–1:00
Lunch
1:00–2:45
Small Group Activity 1.3
Review and analyze raw data to answer key questions
Develop PowerPoint to share analysis in plenary
2:45–3:00
Break
7
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Time
Topic
Handouts
3:00–3:30
Small Group Activity 1.3 cont.
Finalize presentations
3:30–4:45
Plenary discussion: Groups present preliminary
analysis
Questions and discussion (10 minute presentation; 10
minutes for discussion)
4:45–5:00
Wrap up / feedback / daily evaluation
[Day and Date]
Day 2 – Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Time
Topic
Handouts
9:00–9:30
Review of Day 1 and Overview of Day 2
Printout of corresponding PPT slides
for all sessions
9:30–10:15
Presentation: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Objectives:
Handout_2.1a_causal_stream_exampl
es
Handout_2.1b_problem tree examples
Handout_2.1c_causal_matrix
• To understand the concepts of causal analysis and
how it is used to create a problem tree
• To learn how to use organized data to identify key
problems and create a problem statement
• To identify data gaps
Plenary discussion: Critique sample problem trees
10:15–10:45
Small Group Activity 2.1
Identify key problems, data gaps, draft a problem
statement, and begin causal analysis toward problem
tree
10:45–11:00
Break
11:00–12:00
Small Group Activity 2.1 (cont.)
12:00–1:00
Lunch
1:00–3:00
Small Group Activity 2.1 (cont.)
Complete problem tree
3:00–3:15
Break
3:15–4:15
Plenary: Presentations or gallery walk of Problem
Trees
4:15–4:45
Small Group Activity 2.1 (cont.)
Refine Problem Tree based on feedback from large
group and capture in electronic format
4:45–5:00
Wrap up / feedback / daily evaluation
8
If font size is too small on problem tree
samples, provide full page printouts of
slides used for critique.
Introduction
[Day and Date]
Day 3 – From Problems to Solutions and Theories of Change
Time
Topic
Handouts
9:00–9:30
Review of Day 2 and Overview of Day 3
Printout of corresponding
PPT slides for all of today’s
sessions
9:30–10:00
Presentation 3.1: From Problems to Solutions
Objective: To begin thinking about the transition from
problem trees to solution trees (with goals and domains of
change)
10:00–10:45
Small Group Activity 3.1
Create Solution Trees by restating problems as solutions.
10:45–11:00
Break
11:00–12:00
Small Group Activity 3.1 (cont.)
Check causal linkage between each solution
12:00–1:00
Lunch
1:00–1:45
Presentation 3.2: Pathways of Change and Assumptions
Objectives:
• To understand how Pathways of Change are the
foundation of a TOC
• To understand how theoretical assumptions underpin
each causal linkage
• To emphasize the necessity of an evidence base to
support assumptions
1:45–3:00
Small Group Activity 3.2




Refine Pathways of Change in your solution tree
Continue to check causal linkages
Identify theoretical assumptions between each outcome
Note the evidence base for each causal linkage
3:00–3:15
Break
3:15–4:45
Small Group Activity 3.2 (cont.)
4:45–5:00
Wrap up / feedback / daily evaluation
9
Handout 3.2a Project
Hypothesis
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
[Day and Date]
Day 4 – Prioritizing Domains of Change, Interventions and Indicators
Time
Topic
Handouts
9:00–9:15
Review of Day 3 and Overview of Day 4
Printout of corresponding PPT
slides for all of today’s sessions
9:15–9:45
Presentation 4.1: Prioritizing Domains of Change
Handout 4.1 Prioritize
Domains of Change
Objective: To understand selection criteria when prioritizing
the Domains of Change a project will address
9:45–10:30
Small Group Activity 4.1
 Select Domains of Change that project will address and
provide rationale for selection.
 Describe who will address other Domains of Change and
how the Project will know if progress is being made
10:30–10:45
Break
10:45–12:00
Small Group Activity 4.1 (cont.)
12:00–1:00
Lunch
1:00–2:15
Plenary discussion: Each group describes the process they used
to prioritize the domains of change their project will address.
Describe challenges that surfaced and how they were dealt
with.
Brainstorm about challenges and solutions related to tracking
progress in Domains of Change that the project will not be
directly addressing.
Gallery walk: Share theory of change model, showing
prioritized Domains of Change.
2:15–3:00
Presentation: 4.2 Interventions, Assumptions, Risks,
Indicators
Objectives:
 To explore assumptions about the connections between
activities and the outcomes they are expected to generate.
 To prioritize interventions that will contribute to each
intended outcome
 To identify indicators for each incremental outcome
3:00–3:15
Break
3:15–4:45
Small Group Activity 4.2
Begin to identify interventions, assumptions and risks related
to the intervention
4:45–5:00
Wrap up / feedback / daily evaluation
10
4.2a_Key questions for
assumptions and risks
4.2b_Outcomes Matrix
template
4.2c_What are indicators?
4.2d_Indicators
Introduction
[Day and Date]
Day 5 – Using the Theory of Change
Time
Topic
Handouts
9:00–9:30
Review of Day 4 and Overview of Day 5
Printout of corresponding PPT
slides for all of today’s sessions
9:30–10:00
Plenary discussion: Check in on the groups’ process of
identifying interventions and the assumptions supporting the
link between the intervention and the intended outcome.
Identify challenges to the process and solutions.
10:00–10:45
Continue Small Group Activity 4.1
Continue to refine assumptions and risks related to chosen
interventions, note any remaining data gaps
10:45–11:00
Break
11:00–12:00
Small Group Activity 4.1 (cont.)
Identify potential indicators for each incremental outcome
12:00–1:00
Lunch
1:00–2:15
Plenary discussion: Present theories of change and outcomes
matrices
2:15–3:00
Presentation: Using Theory of Change: Comparative
advantage, Partnerships, and Logframes
Objectives:
 To understand how to use a TOC in your daily work
 To use the TOC to identify how and where to use additional
partner agencies in the TOC
 To learn how TOC can be used to inform a logframe for
monitoring and evaluation
3:00–3:15
Break
3:15–3:45
Plenary discussion: Comparative advantage, partnership and
transferring relevant elements of a TOC to a logframe
3:45–4:00
Final discussion, wrap-up
11
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Module 1: Theory of Change,
Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
About Module 1
Overview
The purpose of Module 1 is to provide a basic overview of theories of change, and to
understand how to assess a situation and analyze data to begin creating a TOC. Module 1 (and
all other modules) utilizes a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework as the conceptual model to
guide problem and solution analysis.3
The objectives of the lessons in Module 1 are to help you:

Gain a general understanding of the what a TOC is and the necessary steps to develop one

Gain experience using a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework as a tool for organizing and
interpreting raw qualitative data

Conduct preliminary problem analysis to inform TOC development and program design
Structure and Workload
Module 1 is comprised of facilitator-led presentations on three topics:

1.1: Overview of Theory of Change

1.2: Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods

1.3: Data Analysis
The module has a specific set of objectives that are reinforced using interactive plenary
sessions, Q&A with the facilitator, and small group work. The lesson concludes with group
presentations on the day’s activities.
Module 1 Part 1: Overview of Theory of Change
Introduction
This section introduces the basic concepts and processes involved in a TOC: the what, how, and
why. It is intended to give participants a quick synopsis of the entire process that will be
introduced and applied during the five modules.
3
Note for facilitator: Any holistic conceptual framework (e.g., livelihoods, resilience) can be applied to these
activities.
12
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Learning Objectives
Part 1 will help participants:
Estimated duration: 30-45 minutes

Have a general understanding of the
components of a TOC and the process of creating one

Understand the purpose of creating and using a TOC in program design

Begin thinking critically of how a TOC can be used to more effectively plan, implement, and
evaluate programs
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—1.1 Overview of Theory of Change—accompanies this lesson as a
separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so participants can follow along. Be
sure to provide copies to each participant.

1.1 Overview of Theory of Change (PowerPoint slides)

Handout 1.1. Example TOC
Slides
Slide 2: Definition
The definition of a TOC is presented here. It is important to stress that the TOC is both a process
and a product.

The process comes from thinking about a situation, recognizing the underlying causes of the
situation, determining the long-term change we want to see, and working through the steps
to achieve that change. The process includes revisiting the TOC in the future.

The product is the graphic or flowchart that is produced from this process. The TOC product
explicitly states the desired, long-term goal, outcomes, indicators, and assumptions and
shows the pathways that lead to the desired change.
Slide 3: Why do we need a Theory of Change?
Facilitator: This slide includes animation. Before displaying the text of the slide, ask
participants, “Why do we need a Theory of Change?” The slide contains several possible uses
for the TOC.
13
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
A TOC provides benefits at multiple levels. It helps build common understanding of issues,
explicitly states how activities and outputs help reach next steps, highlights gaps and helps us
identify appropriate stakeholders and partners, and clearly shows pathways of change, among
other uses.
Slide 4: The Link between Theory and Action
A TOC is designed to help link concepts and theory with tangible actions and outcomes. This
graphic shows simply the connection between theory and action.
Slide 5: A Theory of Change is:
Essentially, a TOC can be narrowed down to a set of hypotheses, outcomes, assumptions, and
indicators that make up the causal pathways of change required to bring about a desired, longterm goal. The entire process and product are made up of these “if-then” connections.
If the TOC is created correctly, then the change desired should be able to realistically be
affected.
Slide 6: Elements of a Theory of Change
Now participants begin to see the actual pieces that make up a TOC, both the process and the
product. These include a problem statement, a goal, domains and pathways of change,
assumptions and risks, interventions, indicators, stakeholders, and a final diagram and narrative
summary. Each of these elements will be addressed throughout the training.
14
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Slide 7: Theory of Change Conceptual Model
The TOC product will show graphically the domains and pathways of change and will articulate
the goal, problem, outcomes, and other key pieces. It should be simple, easy to follow, and
appealing to the eye. This graphic is a one conceptual example of the TOC graphic.
Slide 8: Sample Theory of Change: DFID Roads in DRC
This is an actual TOC created for a United Kingdom Department for International Development
(DFID) program in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Participants do not need to
scrutinize every aspect of the graphic, but the facilitator should point out the different
elements.
Facilitator: Presenting large, complex graphic such as this often results in font sizes that are
too small for participants to read. Be aware of this, and consider including these types of
graphics as separate handouts or direct participants to digital versions so they can follow
along.
Slides 9–12: Constructing a Theory of Change
Slide 9 presents all the steps necessary to create a TOC. Details on each step are provided in
subsequent slides. This list of steps will be used as a road map throughout the training so that
participants can continually be reminded of where they are in the process.
15
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
The first step to constructing a TOC is analyzing a situation and collecting and analyzing data, as
described in Slide 10. This provides context and essential information that will be used during
the process.
Slide 11 introduces problem statements that are derived from the analysis and based on the
most significant problem facing populations of interest:

Draft a problem statement.
 What – To write the problem statement, first determine the condition the project is
intended to address.
 Who – Next, identify the population affected by the condition. This is sometimes
referred to as the impact population.
 Where – Finally, state the area or location of the population.

Examples:
 High mortality in children under 5 living in Jalapa District
 Low nutritional status of small farm households in Dangriga
 Low income for small-business women living in peri-urban areas of Guatemala
Slide 12 gives an overview of Causal Analysis, which is the backbone of the TOC.
The process of causal analysis (or problem analysis) leads to the Problem Tree product. Starting
with the major problem and problem statement, program planners should continually ask what
the causes are of that problem based on the data analysis. In the TOC process, we do not limit
ourselves to problems we perceive to be within the scope of the project. It is important to list
all types of problems.
16
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Slide 13: Definitions of Problems and Causes
Problem – A condition or set of conditions that affects people in a negative way
Underlying cause – Major causes of problems that are often the effects of other causes and
must be identified during the synthesis stage of design
The key problems and underlying causes will form the top of the Problem Tree, while
contextual conditions will generally feed in from the bottom. In between, a series of other
problems and causes will fit in.
Slide 14: Examples of Causal Streams
Building on Causal Analysis, these examples give participants an idea of how to think backwards
from a problem to the subsequent causes at each step. After determining the cause of the
initial, overarching problem, that cause becomes the new problem and the process is repeated
until a final, underlying cause has been determined.
Facilitator: Be sure to explain that causal streams are not linear or straightforward as shown
in this simple example. Causal linkages are complex. Problems tend to have multiple causes,
and causes tend to lead to multiple problems, as participants will see.
Slide 15: Causal Analysis: Identify Underlying Causes
While working through the causal analysis, participants need to think about direct, secondary,
and tertiary causes. These go beyond the immediate cause of a problem to attitudes, behaviors,
knowledge levels, and beliefs that influence and affect problems.
Key problems – Broad conditions contributing directly to the overarching problem
Underlying causes – Specific conditions that lead to the broad conditions; attitudes and
behaviors that contribute to the specific conditions; knowledge levels, beliefs, and practices
that influence attitudes and behaviors
Underlying conditions – Social, economic, political, and environmental conditions that
contribute to the underlying causes and often result from the key problems
Slide 16: Developing a Problem Tree
After determining causes and problems, these are put into a Problem Tree. The Problem Tree is
where participants begin to see the cause-and-effect flow and connections between steps. This
is also a crucial step for identifying domains and pathways of change.
17
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slides 17–18: Constructing a TOC
The next steps in developing a TOC are to look critically at the Causal Analysis and explicitly
identify the significant underlying causes of problems, particularly those that have connections
with other causes.
Then, with a strong understanding of the situation, overarching problem, most significant
causes, draft a desired long-term goal. This is the first step in identifying solutions. Essentially,
this will be the opposite of the Problem Statement used earlier, but will specify the enduring,
long-term impact the project is aiming for.
Slides 19–22: Map a Pathway of Change
This part of the process can be very involved. At this point, participants are usually referring
back to their Problem Tree to “flip” several components into what is called a Solution Tree.
From this, domains of change are identified – generally, the opposite of the underlying causes;
and pathways leading from the domains, through numerous outcomes, to the long-term goal
are identified.
Facilitator: This process, as with all in this introductory presentation, is taught in much
greater detail in a later module.
Slides 23–24: Assumptions
Assumptions are conditions that likely affect the success of the program, but are beyond the
control of the program or stakeholders. Developing a thorough TOC requires identifying all
possible assumptions along all potential pathways of change. Assumptions help explain how
and why connections along the TOC will work, though some assumptions may need greater
evidence to hold up throughout the program planning process.
Different types of assumptions include:

Those about connections between causes and problems

Those that explain why each outcome, condition, or breakthrough is necessary

Those that describe the context

Those that explain why certain activities will generate certain outcomes
Slides 25–26: Risks
Risks are conditions that may are less likely to occur, but still likely enough that they should be
noted. Usually, these are unexpected events such as floods, market volatility, or political
instability. One benefit of outlining possible risks to a program is that a contingency plan can
drafted, and practitioners may have a head-start on if/when revisions to the TOC are needed.
18
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
If flooding or some other shock is a routine occurrence, then it should be considered an
assumption, rather than a risk, and appropriate mitigation measure should be built into the
program design.
Slide 27: Partners and Pathways of Change
One criterion for determining the appropriate pathway of change is to think about other
organizations (public, private, local, national, international, etc.) that may be able to help along
the path to achieving a long-term goal. Participants should not necessarily limit their
determination of a pathway to what their organization alone can achieve.
Slide 28: Determine Pathways of Project Focus
After all potential pathways are noted, participants can evaluate each pathway to determine
which makes most sense to follow.
Slide 29: Choosing Appropriate Responses
After identifying domains and pathways of change, participants should use the pieces of the
TOC they are developing to think about the best approach to achieve their intended goal. Later
in the training, the facilitator will assist participants in properly utilizing the criteria, which
include a review of outcomes, determination of assumptions, and comparative advantage.
Slide 30: Stakeholders in a Theory of Change Model
A Stakeholder Analysis is part of the process that helps participants learn how a TOC is used.
This step allows participants to identify all potential players in the TOC, from beneficiaries to
practitioners to governments and donors. Each stakeholder has a different influence on the
TOC, some positive, some negative. Identifying these stakeholders as part of the process and
19
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
defining their roles, interests, and influence will make for more effective program planning,
implementation, and evaluation.
Stakeholder analysis is a critical part of the process, but a 5-day workshop does not offer
sufficient time to carry out this exercise. Stress the importance of this element even though the
training session does not provide hands-on practice.
Slide 31: Indicators
Indicators in a TOC are designed to help participants know when an outcome has been achieved
at each step of the Pathway of Change they are following. When designed correctly, achieving
one indicator will logically lead to the next outcome in the pathway. A complete TOC will
include indicators for all outcomes, not only the outcomes included in the Pathway the
participant chooses to follow.
Slide 32: How do we know if the TOC is correct or adequate?
Rigorously analyzing a TOC is difficult when implementing a program; however, when the
model can be explained logically, follows a clear flow from the underlying causes to the longterm goal, shows the major areas of change needed, identifies feasible means of realizing
change, and clearly outlines how change will be measured, it generally can be considered
correct and adequate.
Summary of Key Concepts

A TOC is both a process and a product.

Developing the TOC is a multi-step process from assessing a situation and collecting data to
determining problems, causes, goals and solutions.

A complete TOC model provides:
a) A clear and testable hypothesis about how change will occur
b) A visual representation of the expected change and how it will occur
c) An agreement among stakeholders about what defines success and what it takes to
achieve it
d) A communication tool to capture the complexity of your initiative
e) A blueprint for evaluation with measureable indicators of success identified
20
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Module 1 Part 2: Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods
Introduction
This session introduces a sustainable livelihoods approach as a means for understanding the
specific problems that various groups struggle with, how they are currently coping with these
problems, and the outcome of their current strategies.
Learning Objectives
Part 2 will help participants:
Estimated time: 20–40 minutes

Understand how a livelihoods analysis can inform TOC development and program design

Understand conceptual issues involved in a sustainable livelihoods approach

Recognize interrelated components in livelihoods systems
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—1.2 Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods—accompanies this
lesson as a separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so participants can follow along. Be
sure to provide copies to each participant.

1.2 Understanding Sustainable Livelihoods PowerPoint slides
•
Handout_1.2_Sustainable Livelihoods Framework graphic
Facilitator: If you are using a different framework, substitute that graphic for Handout 1.2.
Slides
Slides 2–4: What are sustainable livelihood systems?
A sustainable livelihood system is one in which people have adequate and sustainable access
to income and resources necessary to meet basic household needs and sustain natural
resources for future generations. In other words, they are livelihood secure. In this workshop,
we use sustainable livelihood systems as the organizing concept to define the context,
strengths, problems, inter-relationships, and response relevant to problems in the TOC.
21
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slide 4: Basic household needs are ultimately determined by populations themselves, but
typically include:

Food, proper nutrition, and clean water

Good health and access to health facilities

Economic opportunities for employment or income generation

Housing/habitat security

Education

Opportunities for community participation and leisure
Slide 5: What is a livelihood system?
A livelihood system combines components that make up a complete picture of a household’s
or community’s need. These components include context, accessible assets, structures and
processes, actions to acquire and sustain assets and resources, and outcomes from the
combination of these.
The level of livelihood security for any given community or household is primarily determined
by the assets they hold, the strategies they employ to cope with a range of potential shocks,
and the livelihood outcomes they are able to
A conceptual framework is a tool for thinking
achieve.
about a situation or problem that helps us to
organize information, define questions,
analyze the factors affecting the situation and
their interrelationships, and outline a
response.
In order to identify the underlying constraints
to achieving positive livelihood outcomes it is
important to establish a conceptual
framework.
Slide 6: Sustainable Livelihoods Framework4
This sustainable livelihoods framework provides a comprehensive conceptual framework for
assessing each of the factors that influence livelihood security at the community and household
level.
4
Adapted from DFID Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (1999) and CARE Household Livelihood Security
Framework (2002).
22
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
KEY
N = Natural Capital
F = Financial Capital
H = Human Capital
S = Social Capital
Ph = Physical Capital
P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
ST RAT EGIES
VULNERABILIT Y
CONT EXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
T RANSFORMING
ST RUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
F
P
•Social
•Economic
S
•Political
Ph
Influence
and
Access
H
•Environmental
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Infrastructure
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUT COMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
Note the various interrelated components that make up the framework:

Vulnerability context

Livelihood strategies

Livelihood assets

Livelihood outcomes

Transforming structures and processes
These components form the livelihood system. Understanding the links between these
components is crucial to understanding people’s resilience to shocks and stressors. Let’s
examine each of these components in more detail.
The vulnerability context is the
combination of shocks and trends that
influence prospects for livelihood security.
Slide 7: Vulnerability Context
A holistic analysis of livelihood security begins
with an understanding of the contextual shocks and trends encountered by a particular group
or population. Contextual factors include natural hazards and man-made shocks that threaten
lives and livelihood systems, whether in a sudden intense manner such as an earthquake, or in
a more regular and predictable manner such as seasonal
Livelihood assets are things you
flooding and disease. They also include a variety of social,
own, have a claim to, or have
economic, political, environmental, demographic, historical,
steady access to. They may be
and infrastructural conditions that influence the range of
tangible or intangible.
livelihood strategies households are able to pursue.
Alternative terms: capital,
Additionally, positive and negative trends are contextual
resources, capabilities.
factors. For example, economies can improve or decline,
23
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
environments can become degraded or can be restored, and long-term weather patterns can
change.
KEY
Understanding the vulnerability
context
helps to accurately target strategies that support
N = Natural Capital
H = Human Capital
5
F = Financial
Capital conditions.
S = Social Capital
positive, or counteract
negative,
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
•Environmental
•Infrastructure
H
Influence
and
Access
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
Slide 8: Livelihood Assets
Households have access to both tangible and intangible assets6 that allow them to meet their
needs. Livelihood security is dependent on a sustainable combination of livelihood assets and
some assets are prerequisites to others. For example, intelligence (human capital) enables
individuals to effectively utilize/realize other assets: educated adults may better manage
financial capital and literacy provides leverage to realize political capital.
Additionally, tradeoffs exist between each form of household livelihood capital. For instance,
investment in education to increase human capital may put a significant strain on limited
household income (financial capital). It is important to acknowledge that access to and use of
each of these resources is subject to change and exhibits identifiable trends over the long-term.
In all cases, the most vulnerable households are those that cannot effectively cope with
livelihood shocks because they lack access to adequate livelihood assets.
Facilitator: Ask participants for examples of tradeoffs.
5
TANGO International 2002.
6
In this course we use the term assets when we refer to the collective group of livelihood assets; we use the term
capital when we refer to a singular livelihood asset (e.g., social capital).
24
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Key things to remember about livelihood assets:

Generally, the more assets you have the better off you are.

Greater diversity of assets enhances resilience to shocks and stressors.

Assets may be combined and/or transformed.

TradeoffsN =exist
between assets,
and some assets are prerequisites to others.
Natural Capital
H = Human Capital

F = Financial Capital S = Social Capital
Trends are
observed in the use of assets over time.
KEY
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
H
•Environmental
Influence
and
Access
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
•Infrastructure
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
Slides 9–12: Six Basic Assets
In a sustainable livelihoods framework, six forms of capital commonly comprise the portfolio of
livelihood assets. The following table provides a brief description of each.
Forms of Capital that Influence Livelihood Security
Human capital
The stock of competences (e.g., skills, intelligence, ability to labor,
individual health and nutritional status) that enable households to put
all other forms of livelihood capital to best use
Financial capital
Cash and other items that can be converted to cash quickly and easily
(e.g., wage income, savings, credit, remittances, pensions,
unemployment payments, gold)
25
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Natural capital
Natural resource stocks that provide useful resource flows (e.g., land,
streams, trees, soil, pastureland, sea, wildlife, biodiversity, climate,
rainfall)
Physical capital
Basic infrastructure (e.g., transportation, road systems, markets,
housing/shelter, energy, communications, water systems), productive
assets (animals, tools, equipment), and other material means that
enable people to maintain and enhance their relative level of wealth
Social capital
Social resources (e.g., networks, family/extended family structures,
membership in groups, labor-sharing systems, social relations, ties to
tribes, access to wider institutions in society) upon which people draw
in pursuit of livelihoods. The quality of the networks is determined by
the level of trust and shared norms that exist between network
members. Being connected to one another helps a community to
manage risk.
Political capital
Agency and relationships of power. Access to the political system and
governmental processes at local and higher levels; and the capacity to
influence decision-making, to advocate for resources or change, and
claim one's rights.
Facilitator: For each type of capital, ask for examples for showing text on the slide. On Slide
11 “Social Capital” discuss bonding, bridging, and linking social capital.
Slide 13: Transforming Structures and Processes
In any given community, multiple institutions and organizations share responsibility for certain
community functions that directly influence the livelihood outcomes of local households. In the
public sector, this typically includes national, regional, and local governments as bodies or
structures that manage and implement political, judicial, and legislative processes. In civil
society, examples of typical structures are nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), communitybased organizations (CBOs), religious institutions, and trade associations. There also may be
structures within the private or commercial sector.
26
KEY
N = Natural Capital
F = Financial Capital
Module 1:
H = Human Capital
S = Social Capital
Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
•Natural Hazards
N
•Man-made
shocks
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
H
•Environmental
•Infrastructure
Influence
and
Access
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
These structures organize and regulate community behavior and processes, such as through
creating and enforcing policy and legislation or through setting and maintaining social and
cultural norms or power relations. They shape and influence people’s values and behavior,
affecting what they do and how they do it.
Important interactions exist between structures and processes within the context of rules and
social norms in which they exist. The different structures and patterns of collaboration among
institutions and among individuals or communities can have positive or negative effects on local
livelihood systems. For example, individuals or communities with many assets may be able to
change some of the rules (i.e., how different assets can be used, who has access to specific
assets).
Looking forward, as you design programs it will be essential that your analysis take these
interactions into account.7
Slide 14: Livelihood Strategies
Livelihood strategies are formed by households in order to reach the outcomes they desire in
their lives. Most strategies involve efforts to secure a living and avoid or reduce exposure to
risk. For the very poor, livelihood strategies often are focused on negotiating survival.
Households form livelihood strategies based on the combination of assets they have, the shocks
and trends they are exposed to, and the overall environment of official and non-official
structures and social and legal systems.
Livelihood strategies include various types activities intended to maximize assets as well as
those which aim to reduce risk or cope with shock. Asset maximizing strategies include
7
TANGO International 2002.
27
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
production and income-generating activities (e.g., agricultural production, informal sector
employment) or,
more often, an evolving combination of multiple activities. They also include
KEY
actions such asNadvocating
orCapital
services, getting married, going to school, or diversifying
= Natural Capitalfor rights
H = Human
F
=
Financial
Capital
S
=
Social
Capital
assets.
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
Influence
and
Access
H
•Environmental
•Infrastructure
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
Risk reduction strategies are those that help people
A livelihood strategy is comprised
prepare for and respond to shocks, thereby reducing their
of the plans and actions
vulnerability to the shock, and optimally lessening its
undertaken to secure a living and
impact on household well-being (e.g., crop diversification,
avoid or reduce exposure to risk.
obtaining insurance, protecting health). Vulnerable
populations use coping strategies when they are incapable of meeting basic household needs
because of the impact a shock has had on normal livelihood options. Some coping strategies are
unsustainable (e.g., selling productive assets, reducing meals), while others are beneficial (e.g.,
social interdependence, solidarity).
A comprehensive analysis of livelihood security and vulnerability should seek to determine
common livelihood strategies pursued by households within a given region, as well as the
livelihood outcomes that result (food security, educational attainment, health status, etc.).
Slide 15: Livelihood Security Outcomes
A household’s level of exposure to risk combined with the livelihood strategies a household
implements leads to a livelihood outcome. A number of livelihood outcome measures provide
information on the extent to which households are successfully using livelihood strategies to
reduce and manage risk, in order to reach desired household outcomes. People attain overall
livelihood security through the combination of all other kinds of security listed in the table
28
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
below. Ultimately, outcomes themselves affect households’ future vulnerability to risk. Here it
KEY
is important to note
thatCapital
vulnerability
N = Natural
H = Humanitself
Capitalis not an outcome, but rather a continuous process
F = Financial
S = Social
Capital to cope with shock.
of exposure to shocks
andCapital
people’s
capacity
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
•Environmental
•Infrastructure
H
Influence
and
Access
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
A livelihoods or resilience assessment will help you to determine the degree to which a
household attains the outcomes shown below, as well as important linkages between the
various outcome measures.
When all livelihood outcomes are met in a sustainable way the ultimate outcome is achieved.
Slides 16: When are livelihoods secure and sustainable?
Livelihood Security
A household or community is deemed secure and sustainable when:

It has resources and income-earning opportunities that allow it to meet basic needs

It has asset reserves to offset risks, ease shocks, and meet contingencies

Equity and justice exists within all social relationships

The natural resources of future generations are protected
Livelihoods Framework
The sustainable livelihoods framework can help to identify opportunities and constraints to
achieving livelihood security, and assist stakeholders in the design of programs to reduce risk
exposure and improve livelihood outcomes.
29
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
A livelihoods framework helps to:

Assess each of the factors that influence livelihood security at the community and
household level

Identify underlying risk factors

Support sustainable reductions in vulnerability via improved risk reduction
Slides 17–18: A Sustainable Livelihood Framework helps to:

Assess each of the factors that influence livelihood security at the community and
household level

Identify the underlying constraints to development

Identify the existing evidence base and data gaps

Design programs to promote resilience to shocks and stressors
Summary of Key Concepts

Livelihoods systems and security is a state that includes all aspects that make up a safe,
healthy life with all assets, resources, and needs met.

The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework provides a conceptual model of how all these
components fit together.

Six forms of capital that collectively make up livelihood assets include human, financial,
natural, physical, social, and political.
Module 1 Part 3: Data Analysis
Introduction
This lesson focuses on the steps necessary to identify important changes, differences, and
trends regarding people’s level of risk. By comparing the livelihood portfolios of various groups
and examining household and institutional trends, you will identify context-specific problems,
underlying causes, and constraints to action, as well as strengths and capacities that can be
built on. This analysis will lead you to the identification of key leverage points that can bring
about more positive outcomes for those who are vulnerable to risk.
30
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Learning Objectives
Part 3 will help participants:
Suggested estimated duration:
30–45 minutes presentation
2.5 hours activity

Understand the basic steps for interpreting and
analyzing data

Gain experience using a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework for organizing and interpreting
data

Conduct preliminary problem analysis to inform TOC development and program design
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—1.3 Data Analysis—accompanies this lesson as a separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so participants can follow along. Be
sure to provide copies to each participant.

1.3 Data Analysis (PowerPoint slides)

Data set information (FGDs, KIIs, Venn diagrams, etc.)

Handout_1.3a_List of key questions

Handout_1.3b_livelihoods_matrix

Handout_1.3c_asset_inventory_matrix
Slides
Slide 3: ROADMAP – Constructing a TOC
This slide is presented at the beginning of each presentation when participants begin a new
step in the TOC process.
Slide 4: What is data interpretation?
Interpretation is attaching meaning and significance to the analysis, explaining descriptive
patterns, and looking for relationships and linkages among descriptive units.
Interpretation, often called dynamic analysis, focuses on analyzing collected information in
order to identify important changes, differences, and trends regarding people’s level of risk. We
can enhance the design of programs to reduce vulnerability to shocks and stressors and
increase livelihood security through a dynamic analysis of sustainable livelihoods assessment
data.
31
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slides 5–6: Create Livelihood Portfolios
Arranging the data in a manner that allows your team to see what type of information has been
gathered is a critical first step. Not only does doing so allow you to see what has been collected,
it helps identify gaps in data collection.
To target efforts to the people who will be most at risk, we must first identify the groups who
are most vulnerable to livelihood insecurity. Start by comparing the portfolios of different
groups. Organizing the data into matrices is a practical method of sorting data for comparisons.
Data can be separated by wellbeing groups (e.g., poor, middle, or better-off), gender,
occupational groups, urban/rural dwellers, or ethnicities. This helps identify where strengths
and weakness lie that may influence the ability to use livelihood assets productively for optimal
livelihood outcomes. It is important to consider factors such as:

Quality of each form of capital

Who has access to capital

Who controls access to capital

Strengths, opportunities, needs, and constraints
When creating livelihood portfolios, it is essential that we consider strengths and opportunities
as well as needs and constraints. This becomes particularly important in the design of programs
to improve livelihood capacities. If programs are designed solely on an assessment of needs
without an understanding of current strengths and capacities, important opportunities for
building on existing capacities may be lost.
In the sample matrix in Slide 6, we have arranged the data to identify an asset portfolio for one
livelihood group. For analysis, we would construct a similar matrix for all other groups in our
assessment and then compare the portfolios side by side.
Livelihood Group: Rural Population
Capital
Opportunities/Strengths
Constraints
Human
Free basic education
High illiteracy levels and dropout rate
Young population—high potential for
training
Education is not valued
High access to some health services
(vaccinations, pre-natal care, etc.)
High prevalence of AIDS affects labor supply
No easy access to high school education
Low child mortality
32
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Capital
Opportunities/Strengths
Constraints
Natural
Availability of land for cultivation and
grazing
Inequitable land tenure system
Abundant grass for livestock grazing and
human use (thatching)
No community-based natural resource
management practices
High rate of deforestation
Perennial streams and boreholes provide
water for both humans and livestock
Physical
Good road network and maintenance
No marketing structures
No infrastructure for livestock
Poor transport facilities
Socials
Political
Financial
Family ties are strong/extended family
system
Poor people excluded from participation in
social activities
Availability of churches enhances social
relationships
Limited access to secondary education
prevents broader social linkages
Community-based groups offer people an
opportunity to participate in community
development issues
Ineffective local government
Support from NGO for income
opportunities
Households cannot access loans because
they have no collateral and few microfinance institutions exist in area
Support from government through
subsidized inputs
Poor people do not participate in
community groups
No remittances from children/relatives in
urban areas
Few small landholders can access
subsidized inputs
Slides 7–8: Explore Household and Institutional Trends
To understand future livelihoods factors, you will need to determine household and
institutional trends. For example, in the wake of a drought are households following certain
livelihood strategies more likely to sell off assets than other types of households? Are these
households more likely to dissolve? Have social networks and institutions grown stronger or
deteriorated in response to changes in economics, politics, the environment, etc.?
As an example, the second matrix helps to understand trends by looking at:

Shocks/stressors that have recently impacted three livelihood groups

How each group accesses food and money, including seasonal variations to access

The risk management strategies currently employed by each group
33
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Farmers
Wage Labor/ Service
Industry
Drought – last season’s
crops did not fully
mature – heightened
food insecurity
Global rise in food
prices/vast increase in
monthly income spent
on food
Hurricane: Lost
numerous boats and
equipment
Most income comes
from cash crops
Tourism
Sells fish at local
markets
Also sell livestock,
poultry, and eggs
Restaurants
Handicrafts in off
season
How does this group
obtain food?
Eats raised poultry,
livestock
Catches fish and raises
poultry
What percentage of
food is purchased?
Depends on markets
for 60% of food
purchases because
most of land is devoted
to cash crop
Purchases almost 100%
of food from markets
and street vendors
Livelihood Groups
Recent
shocks/stressors
How does this group
obtain money?
Entertainment
Fisherfolk
Tourism surge has
reduced available
fishing waters
Harvests from common
property fruit trees
Depends on market for
25% of food purchases
Seasonal variations in
income, food, or
illness?
Harvest income is not
enough to get from
one season to the next.
Income is lowest during
growing season. Uses
credit to get by until
harvest
Income is highest
during tourist season
and very low in offseason (4 months per
year)
High tourist season
(water sports) reduces
fishing yields and
income
What does this group
do to reduce risk?
Recently began to grow
drought tolerant crops
Participates in informal
savings group
Diversifies income
What does this group
do to cope with
shock/stress?
Sells their labor
Reduces food portions
Migrates
Sells small livestock
(goats and chickens)
Reduces food portions
Slide 9: Summary

Dynamic analysis focuses identifying important changes, differences, and trends regarding
people’s level of risk.

Comparing the livelihood portfolios of different groups enables identification of strengths
(capacities) and vulnerabilities of each group.

Examining household and institutional trends helps to understand levels of livelihood
security for various groups.
34
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Small Group Activity 1.1
Introduction
The remainder of Module 1 should provide sufficient time for small groups to analyze the data
sets, to ask questions and receive feedback from the facilitator, and to design a presentation
and present their final analysis to the other participants.
Learning Objective
This activity will help participants analyze and organize
raw, qualitative data and organize that data according
to key questions for use as we move forward through
TOC development.
Suggested estimated duration:
Group activity – 150 minutes
Present PowerPoints – 75 minutes
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so participants can follow along. Be
sure to provide copies to each participant.

Packet of raw data sets (the facilitator may have already distributed this)

Example matrix templates for organizing data
Facilitator Tips
Facilitator: During the activity, ask for any specific questions related to the data or analysis
process. Then, depending on how many questions are raised and how much time is available,
the facilitator may ask leading questions, such as:
• Did every group identify data that describes the six basic assets? If not, what information
do you believe is missing?
• Did every group utilize the Key Questions in order to look at the data in different ways?
Did you feel any information was missing or that you were not able to utilize the Key
Questions properly?
•
Do you feel you have a comprehensive picture of the community?
35
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slides and Steps
Slide 10: Small Groups and Data Sets
Facilitator: Divide participants into an appropriate number of small groups. Groups should
have no more than 8–10 participants; 68 works well. You may ask participants to count off by
the number of groups (e.g., if there are 40 participants, count off by four if you want four
groups of 10 or by five if you want five groups of eight.). Or, if participants are already seated
as groups, you may proceed with the current group structure. Alternatively, you may “preordain” small groups when participants arrive by presenting name tags or course materials
with a number or colored sticker that corresponds with small groups.
Groups should have a mix of participants from different organizations and with different
areas of technical expertise, if possible.
After participants are settled into small groups, distribute packets of raw data or ask
participants to open the folder on the USB drive that contains the data sets. These packets
should contain a mix of primary data in the form of notes from focus group discussions and
key informant interviews, matrices, Venn diagrams, and other instruments from a qualitative
livelihoods data collection project.
Slide 11: Your Data Sets
Facilitator: Explain to participants that should not start digging through the information in
the data sets. First, the facilitator should describe the various types of information that are
included in the set. This may include focus group data, wealth rankings, seasonal calendars,
Venn diagrams, household case studies, and consolidated matrices.
Slides 12–13: Key Questions
These key questions or areas for consideration are used to guide the livelihoods data analysis.
They are organized to match the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and include a general
livelihood analysis, vulnerability context, livelihood assets, transforming structures and
processes, livelihood strategies, seasonal dimensions of vulnerability, wealth ranking, resilient
households, and summary. Each point provides a concept for comparing and contrasting
households and communities so that participants can develop a comprehensive picture of the
data. In addition, using all key questions in combination ensures that the data is thoroughly
analyzed from multiple angles.
36
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Slide 14: Data Analysis
Facilitator: Explain to participants that they should review, analyze, synthesize, and organize
the raw data in the packets. The PowerPoint slide with “Key Questions” should be displayed.
For reference, they should review the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the six basic asset
categories, and the 1.3 Data Analysis slides. The facilitator may walk around the room and be
available to the participants.
Participants should be encouraged to use the template livelihoods matrix and assets
inventory to help organize the data, though the final product does not need to be organized
exactly this way.
The facilitator should assist the groups in dividing the data among group members in order to
promote efficiency in analysis.

One suggestion is to have each group member (or pairs) take one or two types of data
and thoroughly review it. Then, the entire group can come together and address each as
group.

Another idea is to have the groups divide themselves into two smaller groups and each
mini-group answers half of the questions.
Participants will have 2 hours for this portion of the activity.
Prepare Presentations
Facilitator: During the next 1 hour, each group should continue analyzing the data, while
designing a PowerPoint presentation that shows their organized data in a logical, clean, brief
way. Stress that each group will have no more than 15 minutes to present. Depending on
available time, you may suggest 10 minutes for presentation followed by 10 minutes of
questions from the audience.
After approximately 50 minutes, remind the groups of the time remaining to finalize their
presentations. Ask each group to identify a lead presenter.
Explain to the group how they will share their presentations, either by emailing them to you,
saving them to a flash drive to present on your computer, using their own computer to attach
to a projector, or some other method.
37
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Plenary: PowerPoint Presentations
Facilitator: Each group should now be prepared to present for 10–15 minutes. Presentations
should include a brief discussion of the organized data, highlighting the six basic asset
categories and any outstanding findings from the Key Questions.
You may choose which group presents first or may ask for a group to volunteer. You should
keep close track of the time, so the session does not go long.
Works Cited in Module 1
Module 1 content draws heavily from the following modules in a distance learning course
created for Florida International University.

Starr, L., S. Nelson, T. Spangler. 2013. Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 1:
Livelihoods and Resilience Assessment. TANGO International and Florida International
University.

Starr, L., S. Nelson, T. Spangler. Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 2:
Livelihood Systems and Risk Assessment. TANGO International and Florida International
University.

Starr, L., S. Nelson, T. Spangler. 2013. Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 3:
Program Design. TANGO International and Florida International University.
Additional works cited:

DFID. 1999. Sustainable Livelihoods Framework.

TANGO International. 2008a. Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment
Guidelines. World Food Programme.

TANGO International. 2008b. World Food Program’s Emergency Food Security Assessment
Guidelines. World Food Programme.

TANGO International. 2002. Household Livelihood Security Assessments – A Toolkit for
Practitioners. CARE USA, PLHS Unit.
38
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Additional Information for Module 1
KEY
N = Natural Capital
F = Financial Capital
H = Human Capital
S = Social Capital
Ph = Physical Capital P = Political Capital
LIVELIHOOD
STRATEGIES
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
LIVELIHOOD ASSETS
•Natural Hazards
•Man-made
shocks
N
P
F
S
Ph
•Social
•Economic
•Political
•Environmental
•Infrastructure
H
Influence
and
Access
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES AND
PROCESSES
STRUCTURES
•Levels of
Government
•Private
•Laws
Sector
•Policies
•Civil
•Culture
society
•Institutions
PROCESSES
•Demographic
•Historical
•Production
and Income
Activities
• Household
resource
investment
strategies*
•Processing,
Exchange and
Marketing
Activities
•Risk
reduction
strategies
•Coping
Strategies
I
n
o
r
d
e
r
t
o
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
LIVELIHOOD
OUTCOMES
• Nutritional
Security
• Food Security
• Income
Security
• Education
Security
• Health Security
• Habitat
Security
• Social Network
Security
• Personal
Safety
• Environmental
Security
• Life Skills
Capacity
Decisions regarding use of tangible and intangible household assets (consumption needs, health needs, education, shelter)
39
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Asset Inventory for Data Analysis
Assets
Group 1
(e.g., Men)
Human
Education/knowledge
Skills and training
Ability to labor
Ability to protect health
Other
Social
Support networks
Ties to ethnic group
Religious groups
Other
Physical
Safe housing/shelter
Productive assets (land, animals, tools)
Non-productive assets
Markets
Transportation systems
Communication systems
Other basic infrastructure
Other
Political
Participation in community decisions
Power relations
Access to and influence on political systems
Other
Financial
Savings
Income
Credit
Pensions
Remittances
Liquid assets
Other
40
Group 2
(e.g., Women)
Group 3
(e.g., KII)
Group 4
(e.g., KII)
Module 1: Theory of Change, Sustainable Livelihoods, and Data Analysis
Assets
Group 1
(e.g., Men)
Group 2
(e.g., Women)
Group 3
(e.g., KII)
Group 4
(e.g., KII)
Natural
Soil quality
Forests
Water
Wildlife
Ocean
Other
Sources for Quantitative Data Collection Guidance
WFP Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment:

http://www.wfp.org/content/comprehensive-food-security-and-vulnerability-analysiscfsva-guidelines-first-edition

http://home.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/manual_guide_proced/wfp203193
.pdf
Wholey, J., Hatry, H., & Newcomer, K. (eds). (2004). Handbook of practical program evaluation.
San Francisco, CA. Jossey-Bass.
Additional Reading

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. 2007. Global food security
assessment guidelines. Geneva.

Simon Maxwell and Timothy R. Frankenberger. 1992 Household food security: concepts,
indicators, measurements. A technical review. New York and Rome: UNICEF and IFAD (part II
page 77 to 102).

TANGO International. 2004. Development relief program guidance—part III, analytical
framework, methods, and tools. Prepared for the U.S. Agency for International
Development Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, Office of Food
for Peace.

Frankenberger, T., Drinkwater, M. & D. Maxwell. 2000. Operationalizing Household
Livelihood Security: A Holistic Approach for Addressing Poverty and Vulnerability.

TANGO International. 2004. Development Relief Program Guidance – Part III, Analytical
Framework, Methods, and Tools. Office of Food for Peace, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict
and Humanitarian Assistance.
End of Module 1
41
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
About Module 2
Overview
Module 2 builds on Module 1, which provided an overview of theory of change (TOC), covered
the concepts behind sustainable livelihoods systems, and introduced the raw data set and
analysis that will provide the foundation for the remainder of the training.
Developing a TOC is a multi-step process that begins with having a well-organized,
comprehensive picture of the assets, resources, and needs of a society, community, household,
or individual. With this background established in Module 1, we now move on to causal analysis
and problem trees, where participants will begin to see the TOC take shape. At this point, many
of the steps in the process of creating a TOC become very fluid. The facilitator should help
participants understand the distinct steps in the process.
The purpose of Module 2 is to begin using organized data to develop a TOC. This module
presents two steps in that process: causal analysis and problem trees. Participants will utilize
the Sustainable Livelihoods context established in Module 1 to identify problems and causes.
The objectives of the lessons in Module 2 are to help participants:

Gain an understanding of causal analysis and problems trees, the process of creating them,
and how they lead to development of a TOC

Use organized data from Module 1 to identify key problems, which will lead to development
of a causal analysis and problem tree

Share small group causal analysis and problem tree with the entire group
Structure and Workload
Module 2 is comprised of facilitator-led presentations on causal analysis and problem trees. The
module has a specific set of objectives that are reinforced using interactive plenary sessions,
Q&A with the facilitator, and small group work. The lesson concludes with small group
presentations on the day’s activities.
Module 2 Part 1: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Introduction
This module focuses on using organized data to identify key problems and causes of those
problems in a hierarchical flow. Using organized data analysis from Module 1, participants will
learn to recognize problems and underlying causes in the community and to link these
42
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
problems in a causal pathway. This analysis will lead to identification of key leverage points that
can bring about more positive outcomes for vulnerable populations.
Learning Objectives
Part 1 will help participants:
Estimated duration:
45 minutes presentation
4–4.5 hours group work

Understand the concepts of causal analysis how it is used
to create a problem tree

Identify key problems and create a problem statement using organized data

Identify data gaps
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—2.1 Causal Analysis and Problem Trees—accompanies this lesson
as a separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so that participants can follow
along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.

2.1 Causal Analysis and Problem Trees (PowerPoint slides)

Handout_2.1a_causal_stream_examples

Handout_2.1b_problem tree examples

Handout_2.1c_causal_matrix
Slides
Slide 2: ROADMAP
This slide shows the process up to this point. This module addresses the next three points in our
roadmap.
Slides 3–5: Holistic Problem Analysis
Problem analysis helps to clarify underlying causes of vulnerability before going further in the
design process. The process allows program planners to identify the contributors to problems
and cross-causal linkages. For example, why could a community experience low income
security? Perhaps the causes leading to this problem include negative health issues, low crop
production, limited off-farm income opportunities, or any number of other factors that are not
directly in a finance/economic pathway.
43
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Facilitator: A livelihood system is like a car engine: In order to run well, all pieces must work
together.
A holistic analysis improves our ability to design and implement integrated programs that
increase resilience. Holistic analysis does not necessarily mean bigger, broader programs must
be implemented by one organization; it simply means that the team has looked at the “big
picture” to identify the most effective response and approach.
Integrated programming refers to a non-sectoral or cross-sectoral approach, with sectors and
stakeholders working together to address key leverage points and adopting complementary
strategies to address common issues. By layering, integrating, and sequencing initiatives we can
further the objectives of each to a greater extent than by programming in isolation.
Problem analysis explores causal relationships and discovers factors that contribute to
problems. Through holistic appraisal, problem analysis also helps to identify pathways between
causes and effects. Any problem that interacts with one part of a livelihood system also
interacts with other parts of the system. Thus, holistic problem analysis always aims to
investigate cross-causal linkages.
Once the data have been gathered and organized, vulnerable populations have been identified,
and trends have been determined, it’s time for problem analysis: the identification of common
constraints and opportunities, feedback loops, and underlying causes that may be domains of
change for potential livelihoods focus.
Slide 6: Identify Problems and Underlying Causes
For the purposes of this course, problems are a condition or set of conditions that negatively
affect people (e.g., death, infectious diseases, poverty, low income, low agricultural production,
inadequate housing) and contribute to compromised livelihood outcomes. Key problems are
the broad conditions/causes that lead into the overarching problem. Underlying causes are the
entire collection of specific contributors to identified problems which are often the effects of
other causes. Problem analysis helps to clarify underlying causes of vulnerability before going
further in the design process of livelihoods programs. Underlying conditions are the social,
economic, political, or natural conditions that contribute to underlying causes and result from a
problem (i.e., the cycle of vulnerability).
A city or rural region may appear to have the same problems (e.g., poverty) and broad
categories of causes (e.g., low income), yet the specific causes and constraints that need to be
addressed may differ from place to place or group to group. It is critical that we look for
context-specific problems, causes, and constraints to change.
44
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Facilitator: Explain that the distinctions mentioned in this slide will not necessarily be
apparent from the start; some may be, but most will not. Program planners must first create
a thorough inventory of problems and causes. Then, through organizing, arranging, and
filtering, the problems and causes will begin to fit into the various categories. As will be seen,
ensuring strong causal logic is extremely important.
Slide 7: Prioritize an Overarching Problem
After identifying a variety of problems in a community, we want to prioritize these problems for
development of the TOC. Generally, we use two main criteria for prioritizing an overarching
problem:

The significance or scope of the problem

The degree to which solving the problem with lead to improvements in well-being for the
impact population
Facilitator: Ask participants if there are any criteria that might be used. Suggest to
participants that they should not be thinking about logistics (e.g., cost of program delivery) at
this point. We are simply looking at the data and trying to discern the biggest problems.
Slides 8–9: Problem Statements
Use the data analysis and organized data matrices to identify key problems. Participants should
use the criteria discussed previously (scope of problem; scope of potential improvement) to
suggest the most critical problems. Problems should be specifically phrased so that they
identify what, who, and where. This will help to narrow down root causes, as well as prepare
you for creating a problem statement when it is time for the program design phase. For
example:
•
High mortality in children under 5 living in Jalapa District
•
Low agricultural output for small farm households in Valle del Cauca
•
Low nutritional status of poor children in Managua
•
Low income for female small-business owners living in peri-urban areas of Guatemala
Slides 10–14: Underlying Causes
Livelihood outcomes are usually extremely complex, more so than can be shown in a simple
cause-and-effect stream. Problems and causes are often closely linked and can occur
45
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
sequentially or simultaneously; they may occur independently or be intricately linked. 8
Likewise, in a livelihoods context, problems and causes can often be one and the same. For
example, low crop yield (cause) can lead to malnutrition (problem), whereas drought (cause)
can lead to low crop yield (problem), and malnutrition (cause) can lead to stunting or poor
educational attainment (problems). For all these reasons, we must clearly identify the causes
that contribute most significantly to problems, and we must have a rigorous problem analysis.
Typically, the immediate causes of problems are conditions: broad physical or social
circumstances that have caused a problem. These conditional or circumstantial causes often are
created by behaviors in a community or household. Behaviors, in turn, often depend on
peoples’ attitudes, knowledge, and beliefs, which are born out of the greater, more general
environment.9
Facilitator: Use slide 11 to discuss the graphic on Slide 12, which is shown here.
Key Problems
Underlying Causes
Underlying Conditions
Identifying Underlying Causes
To begin, create an inventory of causes that could be contributing to the problems you named
earlier. When identifying causes, be sure to consider various levels such as:
•
Household level – Household and individual constraints (e.g., behaviors, knowledge and
skill levels, attitudes) that limit opportunities to achieve positive livelihood outcomes
•
Community level – Weak community cohesion and the lack of shared values that hinder the
delivery and maintenance of social and economic infrastructure
8
9
Organizational Research Services 2004.
Caldwell. 2002. Project Design Handbook, eds. Barton, T., and Rugh, J. Prepared for CARE International.
46
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
•
External level – Constraints that are external to the community, such as government
policies, the delivery of social services, and market and social forces outside the
community’s control
o Paying attention to causes at the external level ensures that we “tackle”
transformational resilience capacities
You can use a matrix similar to the one on the next page to identify causes that exist at the
household level, community level, and external level.
Causes
Problem 1
Example: Limited food
availability
Problem 2
Example: Low income
security
Problem 3
Example: Inadequate
nutrition
Household
level
Not enough people to
perform agricultural labor
People do not have
entrepreneurial skills
People are not educated
Low household dietary
diversity
No nutritional knowledge
Intra-household disparity
regarding allotted food
Early marriages affect
girls’ education
Few income opportunities
Limited variety of foods
available in local markets
Community
level
External level
Markets unavailable and
unreliable
Households do not have
land title deeds
Poor extension services
Low prices for crops
No institutions offering
business development
training
Predominant religion
considers borrowing with
interest a sin
Slide 15: Causal Stream
Facilitator: This slide shows simply how a chain of causes/conditions lead to a large problem.
The arrows are intended to demonstrate that a lower cause leads to a higher problem.
However, it is important to begin discussing the slide at the top and work down. For example,
ask: What are the causes of high rates of HIV/AIDS infection? (One answer: exchange of bodily
fluids) Why are bodily fluids exchanged? (One answer: People engage in unsafe sex practices)
Also, explain to participants that a causal stream is never this simple and linear. The higher we
are on the causal stream, the more causes and conditions we can identify that feed into a
problem.
47
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slide 16: Problem Trees
Once you have created an inventory of problems and possible causes, you could organize them
in a linear or hierarchical sequence. However, as we have learned, livelihood outcomes are
typically multi-faceted and much more complex than a simple cause-and-effect stream.
A more effective means of organizing problems and causes is to create a problem tree. Similar to
a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, problem trees represent a systems approach to analyzing
cause and effect, and in this light they are extremely useful for program design, as they help us to
identify multiple causal linkages.
Creating a problem tree requires using the causal analysis process to prioritize problems and
causes in an interconnected hierarchy of causes.
This is most critical (and often overlooked) element of rigorous project design.
Slides 17–20: Problem Tree Examples
Facilitator: These four slides contain example problem trees. Most of them contain flaws,
which the group may discuss if there is enough time. However, focus first on identifying the
overarching problem, then the underlying causes, then the causes at the household,
community, and external levels.
Slide 21: Summary
Dynamic causal analysis focuses on analyzing collected data in order to identify important
changes, differences, and trends regarding people’s level of risk. Comparing the livelihood
portfolio of different groups enable identification of strengths and vulnerabilities experienced
by each group. Practitioners should examine household and institutional trends to better
understand vulnerability and livelihood security of various groups.
Different livelihood groups or different regions may appear to have the same problems and
broad categories of causes. Therefore, it is critical that we identify context-specific problems,
causes, and constraints/opportunities to action. Frequently, many causes of problems can be
identified. Yet for sustainable change, we need to identify the causes that contribute most
significantly to problems.
Summary of Key Concepts
•
Because livelihood outcomes are extremely complex, we must identify the causes that
contribute most significantly to problems.
•
Causes occur on multiple levels: household, community, external, as well as direct,
secondary and tertiary. For this reason, a thorough causal/problem analysis is important.
•
The problem tree helps us to visualize the hierarchy of problems and causes.
48
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Small Group Activity 2.1
Introduction
This activity is extremely involved and likely will consume the rest of the available time for this
module. The activity gives participants an opportunity to review their organized data from
Module 1, identify key problems, draft a problem statement, and begin the process of causal
analysis toward a problem tree.
Facilitator: If necessary, Activity 2.1 can be broken into three mini-activities:
1. Draft a problem statement
2. Identify problems and causes
3. Create a problem tree using causal analysis
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants:
•
Use data to identify key problems in a community and draft a strong problem statement
•
Identify underlying causes of problems
•
Critically analyze and organize problems and
causes into a logical flow
Estimated duration:
Group activity – 4–5 hours with breaks
Group presentations – 60 minutes
Steps
Draft a Problem Statement
Facilitator: Participants should rejoin the small group they worked with during Module 1.
Using the data they analyzed and organized during Module 1, each group should focus on
identifying an overarching problem and drafting a strong problem statement (who, what,
where) for their community. Participants should refer to the PowerPoint slides if they need
examples of problem statements.
Identify Problems and Causes
Facilitator: Again, using the organized data from Module 1 and focusing on the problem
statement they have drafted, each group should begin to identify problems and the
underlying causes related to each problem. Groups should prioritize the direct underlying
causes (key problems).
49
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Begin Causal Analysis and Develop a Problem Tree
Facilitator: After groups have drafted a problem statement and identified problems and
causes, they may begin to create a problem tree.

Create an inventory of causes on sticky notes.

Organize causes to demonstrate how they occur sequentially or simultaneously.

Check causal logic with “Condition X exists … because … Condition Y” or “The cause of
Condition A is Condition B ” statements. For example, there is a high prevalence of
livestock disease because there is limited access to animal health care supplies
(deworming meds, vaccinations, etc.).
Participants should be sure to note the evidence base for each identified cause. Most of the
data should come from the data set and causal analysis. If supporting data do not exist in the
data set, note the data gap!
Presentation
Facilitator: When all groups have reached a point at which they are comfortable, they should
share their analysis and problem tree. This can be done as presentation in front of the group
with a computer and projector or as a gallery walk, where group presents at their work
station.
During this time, the facilitator may ask for any specific questions related to the processes of
drafting a problem statement and identifying problems and causes. Then, the facilitator can
ask for specific questions on creating a problem tree. Finally, depending on how many
questions are raised and how much time is available, the facilitator may ask additional
leading questions, such as:
•
Did the data analysis process from Module 1 provide a logical basis for drafting a problem
statement? If not, then why?
•
For those groups who have started developing the problem tree, is the process clear? Is
there consensus among the group regarding the Causal Analysis process you have
followed or is there disagreement about the hierarchy?
Following the presentations, participants may find value in rejoining their small groups to
continue refining their problem tree based on feedback from peers and facilitators. A strong
problem tree is extremely important to proper development of a good TOC, and it will
make the rest of the process much easier, too!
50
Module 2: Causal Analysis and Problem Trees
Works Cited in Module 2
Module 2 content draws heavily from the following modules in a distance learning course
created for Florida International University: Starr, L., S. Nelson, T. Spangler. 2013. Livelihoods
and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 2: Livelihood Systems and Risk Assessment. TANGO
International and Florida International University.
End of Module 2
51
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
About Module 3
Overview
Module 3 builds on previous modules. Module 1 provided a quick overview of theory of change
(TOC), covered the concepts behind sustainable livelihoods systems, and introduced the raw
data set and analysis that will provide the foundation for the remainder of the training. In
Module 2, participants learned to identify problems and causes using the data analysis, draft a
problem statement, and use causal analysis to create a problem tree.
Developing a TOC is a multi-step process that begins with having a well-organized, comprehensive
picture a community and thoroughly identifying and defining problems, causes, and solutions.
With this background established in Modules 1 and 2, we now delve deeper into the components
of the solution tree and how these pieces work together. As with earlier, we continue to see the
fluidity of the process as we attempt to break down the individual steps for clarity and
understanding. Module 3 provides opportunity for critical analysis of solution trees, and
participants will learn about domains of change and pathways of change, which continue to move
forward the TOC process. The facilitator should help students understand the distinct steps.
The purpose of this module is to fully understand the solution tree and its component pieces
and to think about how these all work together. The objectives of the lessons in Module 3 are
to help participants:
•
Fully understand how to convert problem trees to solution trees
•
Identify domains of change and pathways of change in their solution tree
•
Appreciate the critical need to constantly check causal linkages between problems and
solutions in order to develop a strong TOC
Structure and Workload
Module 3 is comprised of facilitator-led presentations on two topics: 3.1 From Problems to
Solutions and 3.2 Pathways of Change and Assumptions. The module has a specific set of
objectives that are reinforced using interactive plenary sessions, Q&A with the facilitator, and
small group work. The lesson concludes with small group presentations on the day’s activities.
Module 3 is highly interactive. Participants will utilize the Sustainable Livelihoods context
established in Module 1 for identifying problems and causes.
52
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Module 3 Part 1: Converting the Problem Tree to a Solution Tree
Introduction
Now that workshop participants understand how to identify problems, prioritize problems and
causes, and develop a problem tree, we will start to look at how we use this analysis to identify
solutions in the form of goals, domains of change, and outcomes. Participants should
understand that creating a solution tree is only a step in the process toward having a complete
theory of change. Though a solution tree and a TOC may look similar, we still have much work
to do after this step.
Learning Objectives
Part 1 will help participants:
•
Begin thinking about the transition from causal analysis
and problem trees to goals and solution trees
•
Convert problems to solutions and to create a solution tree
Estimated duration:
30 minutes presentation
1 hour 45 minutes activity
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—3.1 From Problems to Solutions—accompanies this lesson as a
separate file.
Companion Handouts
No handouts accompany Module 3, Part 1.
Slides
Slide 2: ROADMAP
This slide shows the process up to this point. This section addresses the next point in our
roadmap.
Slides 3–4: Convert Problem Statement to Desired Goal
Moving from a problem tree to a solution tree can be both intuitive and complex. When broken
down into small steps, though, we can see the process clearly.
Now that we have drafted a strong problem statement based on thorough data analysis, we
can use this statement to define a goal for a program. The goal should specify the kind of
enduring impact a program hopes to achieve in the lives of an impact population group. To
convert the problem statement to a long-term goal, it needs to be reframed in terms of the
53
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
desired change and stated as if it has already been achieved. One example of a possible longterm goal is “Increased food security for small farm households in the municipalities of
Magdalena, Jalapa, and Nueva Isabel.”
Remember: WHO, WHAT, WHERE, but not HOW. The “how” will be explained in the theory of
change narrative.
Some poor examples of a desired long-term goal are:

To improve food security, income, and resilience for chronically food insecure rural women
through their social and economic empowerment

To improve local facilities and to empower and engage 12,500 targeted households (50%
women) in agricultural productivity, income and employment towards improving their basic
food needs in the districts of Barguna and Chittagong
Facilitator: Ask group to identify why these goals are poorly-defined. These are real samples
from Title II programs, with identifying factors changed.
Slides 5–6: Impact Population Group
If the problem statement is drafted correctly, it should state who the problem is affecting.
Ideally, this is the target population a program would aim to affect in order to create change.
The impact population group is the group upon which the program aims to have a positive
impact with a long-term commitment to overcome their underlying causes of poverty and
social injustice. A program strategy should be focused as precisely as possible. For example,
rather than focusing on the chronically food insecure population in the region, a program will
be more effective if focused on a women or children within the chronically food insecure group.
In addition, program designers must consider the groups that must necessarily be engaged in
order to achieve the change desired among the impact population group. For example, to deal
with issues of absence of women’s rights, groups of men will clearly be part of the target group.
If the problem is malnutrition in children, mothers will have to be targeted. While the other
target groups may experience positive results, the long-term focus of the program should
remain on the impact population group.
Slides 7–8: Convert Key Problems to Domains of Change
Referring back to the problem tree, identify the broad conditions that are significantly
contributing to the overarching problem. These are the problems that will be converted to
domains of change.
54
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Slides 9–10: Convert Key Problems to Domains of Change
Domains of change (also referred to as key leverage points) are main areas in which change
must occur in order to be able to reach the desired long-term goal. Your goal can be broken
down into a number of domains of change which ultimately lead to achieving the same impact
goal.
Domains of change are determined by the underlying causes that were identified, typically the
key underlying causes rephrased to indicate desired change. These are comprehensive; they are
not limited only to what one program can address. This is a key different between a Results
Framework and a TOC!
Facilitator: In some cases, these may also be referred to as key leverage points. Current
(2014) Food for Peace language refers to these as “purposes.”
Example
Key underlying cause
converted to...
Domain of change
Low livestock production
Increased livestock production
Low crop production
Increased crop production
Low income security
Increased income security
Slides 11–14: Convert Underlying Causes to Solutions
After drafting a desired, long-term goal and converting underlying causes to domains of change,
we begin to move through the problem tree to the causes. Beginning with the problem
statement, identify a logical, appropriate outcome. Then, move to the next cause down the
problem tree and identify an outcome that addresses the cause. It is important to periodically
review the solution tree for a logical backward flow from the desired goal to each subsequent
solution outcomes. Some examples:


Problem: Poor nutrition in children
Outcome: Childhood nutritional status will improve


Underlying Cause: Children consume inadequate amount of nutrients
Outcome: Childhood nutritional status will improve

Underlying Cause: Children frequently suffer from diarrhea; Children who get diarrhea are
not given oral rehydration therapy (ORT)
Outcome: Children’s rate of diarrhea will decrease and ORT treatment will increase for
those that do get diarrhea

55
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
As the solution tree is developed, we must continually check the logical flow of problemscauses and solutions-outcomes. One way to do this is by using “if-then” statements. For
example, “If water quality and sanitation improves AND there is an increased use of hygienic
practices, THEN the prevalence of waterborne illness will decrease.”
Slides 13 and 14 are a problem tree and theory of change based on the same data analysis.
Facilitator: Use Slides 13 and 14 to demonstrate how problems/causes are converted into
solutions/outcomes. Participants should ignore the boxes on slide 14 labeled “stakeholders”
and “assumptions.” Those will be discussed later. The type on these slides is very small. You
may wish to provide a full-page handout of these slides so that participants can review
individually.
Slide 15: Developing Solution Trees
The easiest way to envision creating a solution tree is to imagine simply flipping the problem
tree to its opposite. The problem statement because the long-term goal, the key problems are
reworded into domains of change, and the remaining causes are flipped into solutions and
outcomes. Of course, in order for this to work properly, the causal analysis and problem tree
must be complete and thorough!
Summary of Key Concepts
Moving from problem and causes to goals and outcomes is both simple and complex. The
graphic representations of a problem tree and solution tree mirror each other. As we progress,
though, we must continue to analyze and review each step to ensure each outcome or solution
appropriate and logically address each problem and cause, while also remembering the solution
tree should flow clearly on its own.
Small Group Activity 3.1
Introduction
Moving from a problem tree to a solution tree can be both intuitive and complex. On the
surface, one is simply a mirror image of the other. However, the complexity of the TOC begins
to emerge when we do this. For this reason, participants will have time during this activity to
refine and finalize their problem tree, review their work up to this point, and develop their
solution tree.
56
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants:
Estimated duration:
Group activity – 90 minutes

Review the process up to this point

Understand the steps in converting a problem tree to a solution tree in a straightforward,
structured way
Companion Handouts
No specific handouts accompany this small group activity. If participants need a reference
point, they should refer to the examples in the Module 3 PowerPoint slides.
Slides
Slide 16: Develop a Solution Tree
Facilitator: First, participants should review and, if necessary, complete the problem tree
they created in the previous small group activity. Then, they should start the process of
developing a solution tree, first by converting their problem statement to a desired, longterm goal. Following this, working backward from the goal and mirroring the problem tree,
participants should begin drafting solutions for each cause or problem. Periodically, they
should review the order to be sure of a logical flow. The facilitator may encourage
participants to ask themselves if each solution logically and appropriately sets the foundation
for the solution or goal that comes after.
Outcomes should not be worded as interventions. Often the opposite of a poor condition is a
better condition. If something is too high, the opposite is that same conditions reduced.
Participants should not be suggesting interventions at this point.
Again, stress to participants that a complete solution tree is NOT the same as a TOC. Before
we have a complete TOC, we must continue to refine and add several more elements. If
participants are confused, refer back to the first presentation of Module 1.
Module Part 2: Pathways of Change and Assumptions
Introduction
At the halfway point of the curriculum, we start to see the TOC emerge from the process. While
we have not yet reached the final product or finished the process, identifying pathways of
change and assumptions are key aspects of the TOC that distinguish it from other program
planning tools. Part 2 discusses pathways of change, which helps organizations identify the how
they can achieve a long-term goal. This section also introduces assumptions, which are
57
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
necessary to recognize how and why a program may or may not work within the theory of
change.
Learning Objectives
Part 2 will help participants identify and define pathways
of change and assumptions.
Estimated duration: 45 minutes
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—3.2 Pathways of Change and Assumptions—accompanies this
lesson as a separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so that participants can follow
along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.

3.2_Pathways of Change and Assumptions (PowerPoint Slides)

Handout_3.2a_Project Hypothesis
Slides
Slide 2: ROADMAP
This slide shows the process up to this point. This section addresses the next point in our
roadmap.
Slide 3: Review: Domains of Change
Domains of change are the broad conditions that must be in place to achieve the long-term
goal. Typically a theory of will have between two and five domains of change that are linked
together in a hypothesis: IF domain A is achieved AND domain B is achieved AND domain C is
achieved, THEN the long-term goal will be achieved.
Domains of change should not be limited to key areas that an organization or project intends to
address. Remember, we are not yet focused on the HOW (i.e., activities), but rather on
identifying and refining logical flow and pathways of solutions/outcomes toward the goal.
Slides 4–5: Map a Pathway of Change
Once a desired goal has been established and domains of change are identified, it is time to
starting thinking about how exactly to achieve the goal. Mapping out a pathway of change can
help a team collaboratively determine what types of responses and approaches will comprise a
strategy or program.
58
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
A pathway of change is a graphic representation of the series of major breakthroughs and
related incremental outcomes that are needed within each domain of change in order to reach
your desired long-term goal. It starts by tracing the linkages that lead to the key underlying
causes and by making an inventory of the many other underlying causes that contribute to the
problem. This set of connected building blocks is interchangeably referred to as outcomes,
results, accomplishments, or preconditions. New (214) USAID Office of Food for Peace (FFP)
language calls these building blocks “sub-purposes.” A pathway of change reflects only the
outcomes that are necessary and, when taken together as a set, sufficient to reach the desired
goal.
A pathway of change reflects only those solutions/outcomes that are necessary and sufficient
to reach the domain of change and achieve the long-term goal.
Facilitator: On Slide 5, have participants identify the pathways leading to each domain of
change. Stress that this is another way TOC is different from a Results Framework. Results
frameworks do not show cross-sectoral linkages, but are typically organized by technical silos.
It is important to mirror every underlying/interrelated cause documented in problem tree in
the solution tree. When refining the Solution Tree to Pathways of Change some solutions
listed will take the form of outcomes, some assumptions, risks, and breakthroughs. We won’t
always know until further discussion with all cooperating stakeholders. If no actor addresses
a problem, it becomes a risk to achieving the overall goal. This is the time to weed through
and determine essential OUTCOMES to each Domain of Change and to determine if other
“solutions” listed are actually an activity, an indicator, an assumption, etc.
Slides 6–7: Breakthroughs
Because pathways to change depict what needs to happen in society in order for the desired
long-term change to come about, incremental outcomes should not be limited to the types of
changes external assistance can catalyze. Oftentimes breakthroughs fall into this realm. A
breakthrough is a change that represents a leap forward or an advance on the pathway of
change that is not easily reversed. Generally these are new skills that are quickly and easily
adopted when learned, policies that are implemented and enforced by the government, or a
change in attitudes and beliefs that lead to improved outcomes.
In the sample theory of change on slide 7, breakthroughs are shown as fireworks and include a
change in gender attitudes and sustainable relationships with financial/input suppliers.
Slide 8: Map a Pathway of Change
A pathway of change will include numerous outcomes that are desirables and that contribute to
the long-term goal. (These may also be referred to as sub-purposes, achievements, preconditions, etc., depending on the circumstance.) However, though there are many, we must
59
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
be revisit the solution tree to confirm that all the outcomes in a given pathway are required to
reach a domain of change.
Slides 9–10: Assumptions
The pathway of change is hypothetical because it is based on assumptions. Assumptions are
conditions that are important to the success of a project, but are beyond its control.
Assumptions explain both the connections between incremental outcomes and the
expectations about how and why key actions will bring them about.
Often, assumptions are supported by research, strengthening the case to be made about the
plausibility of theory and the likelihood that stated goals will be accomplished. Some
assumptions may be less proven and will need to be tested and documented or challenged.
There are four main types of assumptions:

Assumptions related to the connections between the underlying causes and the problem
that stakeholders are trying to address

Assumptions that explain why each outcome/breakthrough is necessary to achieve the
long-term impact (assumptions behind the if-then hypotheses)

Assumptions about the context/environment in which the TOC is situated

Assumptions related to the connection between particular program initiatives and the
outcomes and breakthroughs they are expected to generate
Facilitator: Bullet 4 is in a lighter shade of grey because in this exercise we only focus on the
assumptions that underpin the theory. This is important to map out because it will be critical
for the project to clearly state why they believe Outcome A leads to Outcome B in
applications to donors. We’ll talk about other types of assumptions at a later stage in this
process.
Slide 11: Breakout of Assumptions
This slide highlights assumptions about the context/environment in which the TOC is situated
(in this example, pest infestation/plant disease). It also highlights connections between
incremental outcomes: the conditions that are important to the success of a project but are
beyond its control (in this example, farmers are motivated to adopt practices).
60
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Facilitator: Highlight that the slide also includes some weak assumptions that need to be
restated to accurately reflect the assumption or removed entirely because they indicate an
area where action and an answer is needed before moving forward (e.g., the government will
commit human resources and alternative farming lands are available). The project should
determine both conditions both before including the links between the outcomes. A better
way to word would be “Government will continue to consistently commit human resources”
and “Alternative farming lands remain available.”
Slide 12: Risks
Risks are directly related to assumptions. By identifying risks you think about what might
happen if your assumptions do not hold. Risks additionally include external conditions that have
some probability of affecting the success of a program. For example, non-seasonal flooding or
unexpected market volatility in the near future are possible risks. We can frame either of these
statements as an assumption or a risk. The difference is the probability of whether an issue may
impact initiatives and the current context in which the program is set.
Looking at the example on Slide 5. If the economy has been stable for several years and no
volatility is foreseen in the near future, the assumption “the economy will remain stable” is
logical. In contrast, if the economy is quite unstable, we might include a risk such as “economic
volatility will cause existing markets to become unstable.”
Facilitator: You may encounter some confusion about risks and assumptions. Explain to
participants that that we must think of risks to a program rather than risks to a population. If
there is a high probability that something negative will happen (e.g., flooding disease
outbreak) then we assume it will happen and we plan for it in a program (even though it is a
risk to the population). If there is a low probability of something negative happening then we
cannot assume that it will happen and instead we label it a risk to the program and
incorporate a contingency plan or crisis modifier into the program design.
Slide 13: Assumptions and Risks
Assumption
Risk
There will be no outbreak of livestock and crop
diseases.
Foot and mouth disease will spread from cattle in
nearby impacted States to targeted communities.
The economy will remain stable.
Economic volatility will cause existing markets to
become unstable.
61
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Identifying risks allows you to put a contingency plan into place. In some cases, this may require
revisions of your assumption. In others, it may involve scaling back expectations and/or revising
strategies to minimize the risk.
All of your risks and assumptions should be monitored and validated throughout program
design and implementation to ensure that you continue to understand their impact on the
pathway of change and the long-term goal.
Facilitator: Participants may struggle with identifying assumptions and risks. Sometimes the
conditions that would be listed as assumptions are normal, everyday circumstances. At the
very least we assume that the status quo will remain unchanged (e.g., the economy will
remain stable).
Slides 14–15: Checking Outcome Logic using Assumptions
Continually checking the logic flow throughout the TOC process is extremely important. As with
the problem tree and solution tree, program planners need to check logic here, also. Using ifthen statements and starting at the bottom of a pathway of change, we can check the logic.
Facilitator: Ask participants to look at Handout 3.2a Project Hypothesis. Walk through the
example and explain that they will use this same method during the group activity that
follows this presentation.
Using the example graphic on Slide 15 and the handout participants may take a few minutes
to talk through possible assumptions.
Slide 16: Organizing Assumptions
One way to organize assumptions in a clear method (rather than cluttering up a graphic), is to
use the matrix on this slide. Again, start at the bottom of the graphic and work upward to
identify the logical flow and assumptions and risks associated with each linkage. Data does not
have to come directly from the community livelihoods assessment; credible data sources can be
used. However, because of the importance of being context-specific, program planners must
always document the data source.
62
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Outcome 1
will lead to:
Outcome 2
Assumption
Data Source
Reduced felling of
trees
Increased
vegetation cover
Conditions are
conducive for the
trees to thrive so
that the
vegetation cover
will increase
Secondary data
related to
scientific
evidence
Increased access
to irrigation
Increased crop
yield
Dam irrigations
capacity is
sufficient to
mitigate the
effect of
inadequate,
unpredictable
rainfall
Food and
Agriculture
Organization of
the United
Nations
Risk
If damn is not
maintained,
irrigation capacity
will decrease
Ministry of
Agriculture
Organizations
working in the
area
This matrix will be used to complete a more comprehensive matrix later in the process.
Organizing assumptions and risks in this way also eases the process of writing the TOC narrative
and may highlight data gaps that need to be filled.
Summary of Key Concepts

Identifying pathways of change sets the foundation for the final TOC.

In order to choose the appropriate domains and pathways, program designers must review
the underlying causes that contribute to a problem along with the anticipated outcomes
and desired goal. These must be weighed against specific criteria.

Assumptions and risks are inherent in any context. Whether something is an assumption or
risks depends on the probability that it will happen.
Small Group Activity 3.2
Now that each group has a solid problem tree and solution tree identifying underlying causes, a
desired, long-term goal, and anticipated outcomes, we have sufficient information to
determine pathways of change.
63
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants use the solution tree
to identify pathways of change.
Estimated duration:
Group activity – 120 minutes
Group presentations – 60 minutes
Companion Handout
Handout_3.2b_Outcomes and Assumptions Matrix is provided along with the lesson so that
participants can follow along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.
Slides
Slide 17: Pathways of Change
Participants should refer back to their solution tree. Using if-then statements to check logic and
assumptions between each outcome. Record assumptions between one outcome and the next
in Handout 3.2b Outcomes and Assumptions Matrix. List data sources and gaps, and any other
conditions that may need to be in place for an assumption to hold.
Groups should evaluate each outcome in the solution tree and distill their pathways down to
only essential outcomes. Also, groups should identify breakthroughs.
Facilitator: When refining the Solution Tree to Pathways of Change some solutions in the
Solution Tree will become outcomes, some assumptions, risks, breakthroughs. We won’t
always know until further discussion with all cooperating stakeholders. If no actor addresses
a problem, it becomes a risk to achieving the overall goal. This is the time to weed through
and determine essential OUTCOMES to each Domain of Change and to determine if other
“solutions” listed are actually an activity, an indicator, an assumption, etc.
At this point, it still very important NOT to limit analysis to what one NGO will address. We
want to keep a comprehensive lens on all outcomes necessary to get to the goal.
Stress: at this point we are not listing activities necessary to attain goal.
Plenary: PowerPoint Presentations
Facilitator: Each group should now be prepared to present for 10–15 minutes. Presentations
should include a brief discussion of how the group determined Domains and chose Pathways
and should highlight breakthroughs and explain why they were placed where they are.
You may choose which group presents first or may ask for a group to volunteer. You should
keep close track of the time so the session does not go long.
64
Module 3: From Problems to Solutions
Plenary: Theory of Change Q&A
The final session of Module 3 is designed to provide participants with an opportunity for casual
question-and-answer with facilitators regarding theory of change.
While several formats are acceptable for a discussion such as this, one suggestion is to have the
group place their chairs in a circle, if possible. Make an effort to break up the small groups so
that they are more open to learning from their peers who are in other small groups. The
facilitator may use leading questions to encourage conversation or may open the class to
questions and comments on the process up to this point.
Estimated duration:
60 minutes
Some example leading questions may include:

How is everyone’s experience with the process so far? Is it “clicking?” Is this a process and
tool you can envision yourself using in the future to plan programs?

Are there any concerns with the process or products created up to this point?

At this point, do you feel you could replicate the process with a different set of raw data?
Works Cited in Module 3
Module 3 content draws heavily from the following module in a distance learning course
created by TANGO International for Florida International University: Starr, L., S. Nelson, T.
Spangler. 2013. Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 3: Program Design. TANGO
International and Florida International University.
Additional works cited:

Caldwell, Richard. 2002. CARE Project Design Handbook.

Organizational Research Services. 2004.Theory of Change: A Practical Tool for Action,
Results, and Learning. Anne Casey Foundation.
65
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
About Module 4
Overview
Module 4 builds on previous modules. Module 1 provided an overview of theory of change (TOC)
and sustainable livelihoods systems and introduced the data analysis that provides the foundation
for the training. Module 2 showed how to identify problems and causes using the data analysis, to
draft a problem statement, to use causal analysis to create a problem tree. In Module 3, the focus
shifted to solutions, including drafting a long-term desired goal and creating a solution tree, as well
as identifying pathways of change.
Developing a TOC is a multi-step process that begins with having a well-organized, comprehensive
picture of a community and thoroughly identifying and defining problems, causes, and solutions.
This progression leads us now into the latter stages of the process. Module 4 provides
opportunity to prioritize domains of change, and participants will learn to think about
assumptions, risks, and interventions within their model.
The purpose of Module 4 is to continue to build on previous steps by adding introducing new
components, while providing opportunity to finally develop a complete TOC. The objectives of
the lessons in Module 4 are to help participants:

Recognize assumptions and risks that drive decision making within a TOC

Understand how and where to place potential interventions

Gain experience developing a complete and thorough TOC
Structure and Workload
Module 4 is comprised of facilitator-led presentations on two topics: Part 1: Prioritizing
Domains of Change and Part 2: Interventions: Assumptions, Risks, and Indicators. The module’s
objectives are reinforced using interactive plenary sessions, Q&A with the facilitator, and small
group work. The lesson concludes with small group presentations on the day’s activities.
Module 4 Part 1: Prioritizing Domains of Change
Introduction
As we reach the later stages of developing the TOC, additional elements must be included.
Assumptions and risks are essential to the theory of change because they affirm the linkages a
planner has made between problems and causes and between goals and outcomes. Likewise,
identifying assumptions and risks, along with answering some key questions, provides context
to begin choosing which interventions may be used to achieve outcomes.
66
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Learning Objectives
Part 1 will help participants:
Suggested estimated duration:
30 minutes

Understand basic criteria for prioritizing the domains
of change that project will address

Gain an understanding of assumptions and risks, how they are identified, and how they fit
into a theory of change

Use assumptions, risks, and key questions to brainstorm possible interventions and select
appropriate interventions
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—4.1_Prioritize_Domains of Change—accompanies this lesson as a
separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so that participants can follow
along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.

4.1 Prioritize Domains of Change (PowerPoint Slides)

Handout_4.1_Prioritizing Domains of Change
Slides
Slide 2: ROADMAP
This slide shows the process up to this point. This section addresses the next point in our
roadmap.
Slides 3–4: Which domains of change should we address? Which outcomes?
A number of possible domains of change may surface during analysis. Your team will need to
collaboratively select which domains to address. Selection criteria should include:

The domain has high synergy with other domains: The idea of synergy is that the combined
impact of addressing two or more areas is greater than the sum of addressing each domain
individually.

Addressing the domain and anticipated outcome will maximize your organization’s
comparative advantage: Comparative advantage will be address in further detail in Module
5. However, this is an important consideration in choosing a domain to address.
67
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide

Addressing the domain and anticipated outcome has potential for partnering: In balance
with comparative advantage, a complete TOC depends on partner agencies to address the
cross-sectoral and multi-causal linkages.

Addressing the domain and anticipated outcome responds to donor interest: Finally, of
course, an agency must be able to secure appropriate and sufficient resources to undertake
a program strategy.
In addition to identifying domains to address, an organization should identify which outcomes
within that domain they can work on. The criteria are markedly similar.

The outcomes an organization addresses should contribute to achieving the desired goal.

The outcomes should have high synergy with other outcomes.
If the pathways of change were properly focused and the logical flow is strong, these criteria
may already be in place.
Slide 5: Identify Outcomes
Remember that a TOC should not be molded to what one organization can accomplish. It
should show all the steps that lead to a change for a region, community, or population. As such,
one organization should not be expected to accomplish all the outcomes shown.
After a program planner has identified the domain of change within which a given organization
will work, they proceed to identifying the specific outcomes within a pathway of change that a
project will address, using the criteria above. These are the outcomes for which a program
planner will identify interventions and indicators.
And, because one organization cannot do everything but because every outcome must be
achieved to reach the goal, the partners and/or stakeholders who will address other outcomes
must be documented.
Slides 6–7: Example
Facilitator: Review the content of Slide 7 as you walk participants through the example on
Slide 6 of why an NGO may elect to address only certain domains and outcomes. Be aware
that the font on both slides is relatively small and may be difficult for some participants to
read.
Slide 6 shows a Solution Tree with several outcomes and two domains of change circled in red.
The circled outcomes and domains are those that a hypothetical NGO has chosen to address.
Slide 7 shows the reasoning behind why the NGO chose these outcomes and domains of
change. The NGO used the criteria to evaluate the outcomes and domains and then provided
strong reasons for their decisions, based on their experience, analysis, and external data.
68
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Small Group Activity 4.1
Introduction
In this activity, participants will use the criteria discussed to prioritize and identify domains and
outcomes that their organization may address.
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants refine and begin to use
the developing theory of change as it moves toward
completion.
Estimated duration:
Group Activity – 120 minutes
Companion Handouts
No handouts specifically accompany this activity. Participants may refer to the 4.1 Prioritize
Domains of Change PowerPoint slides and handout.
Steps
Facilitator: Direct participants to review the criteria for selecting domains and outcomes.
Then each small group should revisit their solution tree, apply the criteria, and identify those
domains and outcomes that their organization may address in a project. Participants should
note their rationale for the selections they make, and describe what stakeholders will address
domains of change and outcomes that the project will not focus on.
Module 4 Part 2: Interventions: Assumptions, Risks, and Indicators
Introduction
As we reach the later stages of developing the TOC, additional elements must be included.
Assumptions and risks, which were introduced in Module 3, are essential to the TOC because
they affirm the linkages a planner has made between problems and causes and between goals
and outcomes. Likewise, identifying assumptions and risks, along with answering some key
questions, provides context to begin choosing which interventions may be used to achieve
outcomes. In addition, proposing indicators for each outcome give us a way to recognize
achievements.
69
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Learning Objectives
Part 2 will help participants:
Estimated duration:
45 minutes

To gain an understanding of assumptions and risks, how they
are identified, and how they fit into a theory of change

To use assumptions, risks and key questions to brainstorm possible interventions and select
appropriate interventions
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—4.2 Assumptions, Risks, Interventions, Indicators—accompanies
this lesson as a separate file.
Companion Handouts
The following handouts are provided along with the lesson so that participants can follow
along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.

4.2 Assumptions, Risks, Interventions, Indicators (PowerPoint slides)

Handout_4.2a_Critical Questions for Assumptions and Risks

Handout_4.2c_What are indicators and how are they used

Handout_4.2d_Indicators

Handout_4.2e_USAID FFP Indicators list
Slides
Slide 2: ROADMAP
This slide shows the process up to this point. This section addresses the next point in our
roadmap.
Slide 3: Choosing Interventions
In order to achieve a goal or breakthrough that will serve as a precondition for the following
goal, some kind of intervention must occur. Occasionally this may happen naturally, if
circumstances allow. In many cases, though, program planners must design interventions that
will help a community reach the anticipated outcome. If you have followed the process
thoroughly and rigorously to this point, choosing interventions to fit anticipated outcomes
should not be difficult, though this step still requires creativity and brainstorming.
70
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Consider the critical questions that must be asked to determine appropriate activities. The
answers to these questions will help program planners place interventions at the correct stage
within the theory of change and build stronger programs.
Choosing the best intervention for any given cause requires a good list of options and
alternatives. This is where creativity in project design is important.
Slide 4: Examples of Interventions
Ideas for intervention alternatives can come from many places. While creativity and an open
mind are both important, these alternatives should have a basis in some evidence or
experience. They can come from:

Promising practices

Lessons learned from previous projects (including evaluation reports)

Individual and institutional experiences

Inputs from communities on desired solutions

Ideas from review of research and secondary literature
Below is are examples of possible alternative intervention ideas:

Outcome (behavioral level): Improved infant and child feeding practices.

Possible interventions:
a) Community-based nutritional education for young mothers
b) Billboards and radio spots promoting proper nutrition
c) Physical growth monitoring and counseling
d) Supplementary feeding in community kitchens or in schools
At this point, our intention should not be to select an intervention, but rather to make a list of
possible interventions that will move the impact and/or target population from outcome to the
next.
Slides 5–6: Selecting Interventions
Once all alternatives have been expressed, the next step is to examine and eventually select
one of them. The selection process can be as simple as arriving at group consensus or as
complicated as applying decision tools to make the choice. Regardless of how a team ultimately
arrives at selecting an intervention, it is important to:
1) Develop criteria on which to base decisions
2) List the assumptions about the connections between activities and outcomes they are
expected to generate
3) Ask the critical key questions
71
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Some possible selection criteria include:

Community support

Required management support

Social acceptability

Technical feasibility

Political sensitivity

Cost effectiveness

Sustainability

Level of risk
This is not a comprehensive list of criteria for selecting interventions, but it is a starting point.
Program planners should always consider the assumptions, risks, key questions, and local
context when narrowing down and finally deciding on interventions.
Facilitator: Ask participants if they can think of any other criteria that they may use for
selecting interventions.
Slides 7–8: Assumptions Related to Interventions
Once a program strategy is defined based on a TOC, there will assumptions about the
connection between particular activities and the outcomes/breakthroughs they are expected to
generate. As with the assumptions related to causal linkages, these are the factors that are
outside of our control but will affect the project. In addition, there are critical questions
planners must ask and answer to build a strong program strategy.
All program design requires consideration of critical questions. Critical questions differ from
assumptions in that they can lead to actions as part of the design. Critical questions help your
team determine the appropriateness of the initiatives you propose. Some questions will
comprehensively ask about the set of initiatives, for example:
How does the proposed pathway of change fit in with existing programs? Will
adjustments have to be made in ongoing programs (e.g., targeting, cross-project
coordination), or will new initiatives need to be pursued?
Other questions might be specific to one activity within the program. For example, if you are
designing a project to address poor soils and have determined that a key action will be to plant
nitrogen fixing plants, a critical question would be, “Is a steady, and preferably local, supply of
seeds for nitrogen fixing plants available?” It is NOT appropriate to list as an assumption
“steady supply of local seeds.” This either exists or it does not. If it does not exist, either a
different source of seeds must be identified or the program must incorporate plans to fill that
gap in the supply chain.
Facilitator: Direct participants to the “Critical Questions” handout.
72
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Additional, critical key questions to determine the appropriateness of responses include:

Do proposed responses enhance positive livelihood activities currently implemented by
households and communities? Do they fill gaps?

Do proposed responses build on the strengths and opportunities that exist in communities?

Could recommended program activities create new inequalities or disincentive effects? How
will unintended consequences be monitored?

If new initiatives are recommended, does your organization presently have the skilled staff
to take on such initiatives? If not, where will the staff and resources come from?

Can diverse sectors within your organization work together to address domains of change?

Are partners needed to implement the project activities? How will these partners be
selected? What (if any) additional institutional capacity development is necessary to
improve partner performance? What are the constraints to successful partnerships?

Which resources and technical assistance are needed to establish baselines and M&E
systems? Which indicators will you monitor? Which methodologies and tools will be most
effective?

Is there a livelihood niche that presently is not filled for which your organization could obtain donor funding? Does this activity fit with your organization’s strategic plan or mission?

Do recommendations fit in with the government's overall development strategy? How do
they fit in with donors’ strategies? If the proposed initiatives do not fit government or major
donor strategies, what approaches will be developed to bring these entities on board?

Do they prevent vulnerable households from falling back into poverty/livelihood insecurity?

Does the project have wide social support within the community and target population?

Will the project be sustainable in the event of a shock to the target population?
It is important to note that this is not necessarily a comprehensive list of questions. Many
variables can determine which questions should be asked.
A large variety of questions are appropriate and critical to almost any interventions targeted at
a vulnerable population in a developing or low-income country. In addition to these questions,
though, program planners must remember to ask questions specific to the context. Using the
Sustainable Livelihoods Framework introduced in Module 1, think about potential questions to
address the outcomes, assumptions, and risks identified.
For example:

If land is limited, can livestock activities be implemented and how?

In populations with low education and literacy levels, what types of training opportunities
are appropriate and how will the project conduct these?

Increasing agricultural production is one factor contributing to nutritional outcomes. What
other should be considered?
73
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slide 9: Indicators
Indicators tell us how success will be recognized at each step in the pathway of change, thus
verifiable indicators for each outcome should be defined in great detail. Essentially you need to
take an abstract concept (each outcome) and define it in a way that research teams can gather
data and track progress on the extent to which the program is reaching the outcome.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines an indicator as a
“quantitative or qualitative factor or variable that provides a simple and reliable means to
measure achievement, to reflect the changes connected to an intervention, or to help assess
the performance of a development factor.”
Helpful questions to determine indicators include:
•
Who or what is the target population of change?
•
How much change has to occur on this indicator for your program to claim to have
successfully reached the outcome?
•
How long will it take to bring about the necessary change in this indicator in the target
population?10
For example, and indicator of the outcome “improved soil structure and fertility” might be
“water-holding capacity of soil.” An indicator of “improved livestock production” might be “% of
farmers keeping livestock.”
A complete TOC should have an indicator for every outcome or goal. This includes the Domains
of Change and desired, long-term goal. (Even though this will often not be measured directly in
program evaluations, it is still useful to have a way to know if we have achieved the goal.)
Slide 10: Outcome and Impact Indicators
In a TOC, we are most interested in outcome and impact indicators because the model is made
up of a collection of goals and outcomes. An impact indicator measures the actual change in
conditions of key problems linked to the desired, long-term program goal. An outcome
indicator measures the change in systems or behaviors resulting from the achievement of a
goal/outcome.
Also, when designing programs, planners must remember that an indicator should not define
the target, but rather it should provide a measure to help us determine our progress toward
achieving a target.
10
Anderson. 2005.
74
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Slide 11: Level of Indicators
The graphic on Slide 11 presents the levels at which indicators are placed. Impact indicators are
at the top, equal to the desired goal. Outcome indicators fall below this, in line with the various
outcomes determined along pathways of change. Output, process, and input indicators also are
important in program planning, but these do not need to be presented in a TOC. These types of
indicators are more appropriate for a logframe or Results Framework. Note: This graphic uses
earlier FFP terminology (Strategic Objective, Intermediate Result, etc.; however the hierarchy is
accurate).
Slide 12: Good Indicators
Ideal characteristics of indicators:
•
Measureable: Indicators should be measurable by the use of specific quantifiable variables
and/or through other factual, objective evidence obtained through qualitative methods.
•
Technically feasible: The indicators should be capable of being assessed or measured with
the skills available.
•
Reliable: Conclusions based on these indicators should also be verifiable or objective if
measured by different people at different times and under varying circumstances.
•
Valid: Indicators should be capable of measuring the phenomena.
•
Relevant: Indicators should apply to project objectives at the appropriate level in the
hierarchy.
•
Sensitive: They should be sensitive to changes in the situation being observed.
•
Cost effective: Information obtained should be worth the time and money involved to
procure it.
•
Timely: It should be possible to collect and analyze and report the data in a reasonable
period of time.
Likewise, good indicators include several components:11
•
•
•
•
11
What is to be measured
The unit of measurement
A baseline
The size and magnitude of a change
•
•
•
USAID, 2010.
75
The quality or standard of the change
The target population
A time frame for change
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Slide 13: Criteria for Deciding WHAT to Measure12
•
Progress toward final goal, domains of change: While we want an indicator for every
outcome and goal, we should identify indicators that will provide the most clear and direct
information for demonstrating that the goals and outcomes have been reached.
•
Balance – Needed information vs. useful information: When thinking about indicators,
consider whether the indicator will actually measure something related to the goal or
outcome. While certain types of information may be very useful for program planning, they
may not be the types of information needed to understand whether an outcome has been
achieved.
•
Data that has the most potential to redirect activities: If the TOC is constructed with
rigorous analysis, program planners hope that change will occur in the path determined.
However, this is rarely the case. Therefore, when measuring goals and outcomes, we should
identify indicators that will help us gather data with great impact, data that will help us
constantly reevaluate and/or affirm the TOC.
•
Balance: Need to know vs. ability to find out: In order to measure progress, evaluators
must actually be able to collect data on the chosen indicators. If the indicator is presented
in a way that makes collected the data too difficult, then determining the progress of an
initiative may be halted or stopped.
•
Finally, program planners should remember the context of the situation, problem and
underlying causes they are addressing. Indicators should be appropriate and relevant to the
cultural, socioeconomic, and geographic context.
Slide 14: Indicator Examples
FFP offers several indicators that are used for development programs:
Outcome/objective
Indicators
Reduced food insecurity in vulnerable
populations
Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years
of age
Improved agricultural productivity
Gross margin per unit of land, kg, or animal of
selected product
Improved market efficiency
Km of roads improved or constructed
Improved access to diverse and quality foods
Women’s Dietary Diversity Score
12
Caldwell and Sprechmann. 1997.
76
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Slide 15: Targets13
Targets provide us with an intended or anticipated value that we are attempting to reach and
measure using the indicators identified. Usually targets are quantitative, stated as a specific
number or percentage increase or decrease. But, they can also be qualitative, expressing
change along a scale or in terms of beneficiaries viewpoints.
To determine the level at which we should set target, program planners can consider some
criteria, including the baseline measure of the indicator, historical and potential future trends,
the expectations of stakeholders (especially beneficiaries), and the advice of technical experts
and research on the effects of similar programs.
Generally, targets are associated with the logframe or Results Framework to measure project
success. In a TOC, naming targets is not a necessity.
Slides 16–17: Outcomes Matrix
Various schools of thought exist on the best way to fully develop a TOC. A complete TOC
graphic can become quite complicated when one attempts to illustrate all the components:
desired goal, outcomes, domains of change, pathways of change, assumptions, risks,
interventions, indicators, stakeholders, etc.
While it is possible to develop one product that expresses all these pieces, the separate
components can also be divided into two distinct, but closely connected products. An outcomes
matrix allows program planners to provide greater detail while maintaining the integrity of TOC
and clearly showing the connections between the pieces.
Slide 17 gives an example of an outcomes matrix that includes the long-term goal, underlying
causes, desired incremental outcomes, possible interventions, assumptions, key questions
related to the assumptions, and indicators for measuring outcomes.
13
ADRA, 2007.
77
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Goal: Improve crop and livestock production for rural households in Magdalena District
Underlying causes
(contributing to main
problem statement)
Poor soils
Desired Outcomes
(incremental)
Improved soil
structure and fertility
Possible
Interventions
Assumptions
Application of organic
manures and
fertilizers
The population is
healthy and willing to
adopt these practices
Planting nitrogen
fixing plants
Crop rotation/ green
manure
Intercropping
Risks
Indicators
Affordability of
fertilizers based on
low household
income
Are nitrogen fixing
plants (e.g., seeds,
cuttings, nursery
stock) available?
Increased crop yields
per unit of land
Other economic
factors may affect
priority level of
improving soils
Are adequate
extension services
available?
Less crop damage
from insects and
diseases
Drought/ floods may
negatively affect
fertility
Grazing animals in
crop stubble/
temporary pens
Key Questions
Better water-holding
capacity of soil
Are potential
partners in place?
Are farmer “experts”
available?
Provision of extension
services and farm
inputs
Inadequate livestock
production
Increased livestock
production
Stocking/re-stocking
Provision of extension
services and farm
inputs
Livestock nutrition
(fodder &
supplements)
Disease control
Government policies
remain favorable
Community is
receptive to new
technologies
Households are
willing to pay small
fee for services
Establish revolving
funds for agro-vet
products
78
Foot and mouth
disease will spread
from cattle in nearby
impacted states to
targeted communities
Economic volatility
will cause existing
markets to become
unstable
Are breeding stock
available?
% of livestock by type
and breed
Are farm inputs
available?
% of farmers keeping
livestock
Can the community
sustainably support
the revolving funds?
Livestock mortality
rates
Do we have other
partners to work
with?
Prevalence of disease
in livestock
# of CAHWs providing
services
Module 4: Developing the Theory of Change
Summary of Key Concepts
•
Indicators are critical to the TOC because the give us a measure of achievement toward
outcomes and goals.
•
Like all parts of the TOC, indicators must be carefully weighed against criteria and critiqued
to ensure they are indeed useful.
•
Assumptions and risks are an important piece of a strong TOC. These two components
confirm the outcomes identified, and drive our intervention selection.
•
Critical key questions must be asked to ensure our assumptions are accurate and that
program planners are on the right path toward choosing possible interventions.
Small Group Activity 4.2
Introduction
This activity gives participants the opportunity to analyze the pieces they have developed on
the path toward creating a complete theory of change. By articulating assumptions and risks,
and recommending interventions, and drafting indicators, participants will be able to think
critically about the viability of the TOC.
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants use the products they have
created up to now to identify assumptions, risks, and potential
interventions and indicators.
Estimated duration:
Group activity –
90 minutes
Companion Handout
Handout_4.1b_Outcomes-Interventions Matrix is provided along with the lesson so that
participants can follow along. Be sure to provide copies to each participant.
79
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Steps
Facilitator: Participants should review the products they have created up to this point. This
includes the problem tree, solution tree, domains and pathways of change. Then, everyone
should read through the list of Critical Questions for Assumptions, Risks, and Interventions.
Participants should attempt to answer as many of these as possible, but should at least
consider them all during this activity. In addition, groups should think about context-specific
questions based on their work.
Give groups enough time to work through at least one pathway of change. If time allows,
encourage them to propose indicators for each outcome.
Using the outcomes matrix template, participants should list outcomes, assumptions/risks,
interventions, and indicators associated with their developing theory of change. If they
desired, participants may create their own matrix, but all the components should be
represented.
At the end of this exercise, congratulate participants. They now have two key elements of the
TOC product: the conceptual graphic and the outcomes matrix which helps to draft the
necessary accompanying narrative. In actual practice, the next step would be to draft the
narrative.
Works Cited in Module 4
Module 4 content draws heavily from the following module in a distance learning course
created by TANGO International for Florida International University: Starr, L., S. Nelson, T.
Spangler. 2013. Livelihoods and Disaster Risk Reduction. Module 3: Program Design. TANGO
International and Florida International University.
End of Module 4
80
Module 5: Using the Theory of Change
Module 5: Using the Theory of Change
About Module 5
Overview
Module 5 builds on previous modules. Module 1 provided an overview of theory of change (TOC),
sustainable livelihoods systems, and introduced the data analysis that provides the foundation for
the training. Module 2 showed how to identify problems and causes using the data analysis, to draft
a problem statement, to use causal analysis to create a problem tree, and to develop a desired,
long-term goal and solution tree. In Module 3, participants learned about Solution trees, and
domains and pathways of change. Module 4 introduced assumptions and risks, and participants
started to consider possible interventions and propose indicators for each outcome.
Developing a TOC is a multi-step process that requires a well-organized, comprehensive picture of
a community; identifying problems and underlying causes; and determining goals and solutions.
We are now at the end of the process. Now that participants have been through the entire
process and created a TOC product, Module 5 reviews the entire process then discusses how an
organization used a TOC.
The purpose of Module 5 is to provide closure to the process of developing a TOC. Final steps
will be discussed along with putting the TOC to work to improve the program planning and
implementation of an organization working in livelihoods programming.
The objectives of the lessons in Module 5 are to help you:
•
Recognize how a TOC can be used as a strategic tool for achieving long-term goals
•
Use the TOC to identify how and where to use a partner agency
•
Learn how the TOC can be used to inform a Results Framework for M&E
Structure and Workload
Module 5 is comprised of facilitator-led presentations. The module has a specific set of
objectives that are reinforced using interactive plenary sessions, Q&A with the facilitator, and
small group work. The lesson concludes with small group presentations on the day’s activities.
Module 5 Part 1: Using the Theory of Change
Introduction
After diving deep into the process of creating a TOC, this final session shows us a few of the
ways we can use this valuable product and how we can ensure we have a quality product. In
this session, participants will explore how they envision using a TOC in their daily work and
81
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
learn how a TOC can be used to inform a logframe for M&E. They will also have an opportunity
to finalize the details of their own product.
Learning Objectives
This session will help participants:
•
Recognize how TOC can be used as a strategic tool for
achieving a long-term goal
•
Use the TOC to identify how and where to use partner agencies
•
Learn how TOC can be used to inform a logframe for M&E
Estimated duration:
45 minutes
Companion PowerPoint
A PowerPoint presentation—5.1 Using the Theory of Change—accompanies this lesson as a
separate file.
Companion Handout
Handout_5.1_TOC to LF is provided along with the lesson so that participants can follow along.
Be sure to provide copies to each participant.
Slides
Slides 2–3: From Theory of Change to Program Strategy
At the heart of any program strategy is a TOC. To develop a program strategy from a TOC, we
move from things we wish to achieve to the activities and actions needed to achieve them. We
start by looking for the opportunities we can use as entry points to start this process—and,
remember we cannot do this alone.
There are many different kinds of activities that could be implemented in pursuit of the
domains of change and the program goal. The TOC helps us select the most critical or strategic
from among these possible activities. Program strategies are constructed from TOCs, and TOCs
can be refined/improved once the program strategy has been crafted.
Slide 4: Comparative Advantage
The comparative advantage of an organization refers to the organization’s ability, skills, and
experience in addressing an issue relative to any other given organization. If Agency A has spent
several decades conducting research and implementing gender equity programs in Southeast
Asia, one could say that their they have a comparative advantage in that area relative to Agency
B. On the other hand, Agency B may have multiple technical experts in small business
82
Module 5: Using the Theory of Change
development in Latin America. In which case that area would be Agency B’s comparative
advantage.
In order to name an organization’s comparative advantage, we must identify the strengths of
the organization, its teams, and sub-groups within the organization (particularly those who will
be working on the initiative identified in the TOC). This collection of resources should include
the people working for and with the organization, the programs that are implemented by the
organization, and the location where the organization has experience. Think outside the box to
recognize these resources. In addition, it is important to acknowledge weaknesses and gaps.
Not only will that help us further define the comparative advantage, but it will help recognize
where we need help.
Slide 5: Partnerships
Every organization will have gaps or weaknesses in some area, whether it is programmatic,
geographic, or something else. This is OK! One organization does not have to accomplish
everything. Identifying gaps and weaknesses helps an organization recognize where it needs
support to achieve the desired, long-term goal in the TOC.
To identify potential partners, again think outside the box. While some organizations have a
history of working closely with others, this part of the process allows us to expand the pool of
potential partners. Program planners should not limit potential partners to people or
organizations they have worked with in the past. Of course, the final determination may indeed
be a familiar partner organization, but the key is to think about what partner has the best set of
abilities, skills, knowledge and experience to best support the TOC.
Slide 6: Theory of Change vs. Logframe
A logframe is a tool commonly used by practitioners, but this is different and complementary to
a TOC. A logframe explicitly articulates the different levels and results expected from a specific
intervention.14 In a matrix or table format, the logframe includes specific objectives related an
intervention, as well as the outputs, outcomes and indicators connected to those objectives.
Program planners must recognize key differences between a TOC and a logframe.
•
A TOC provides a broad view of a problem, including all the domains and pathways of
change that may help reach a long-term goal. It is non-linear and can be adapted to
changing circumstances.
•
A logframe is based on a specific intervention or set of activities. It is linear and structured
and does not change.
14
IEG 2012.
83
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
•
A TOC describes the conditions required to reach a higher goal or outcome along with the
reasons and rationale for the linkages along a causal pathway.
•
A logframe describes outputs, outcomes, and indicators for an intervention in a
straightforward way.
•
A TOC is used to understand a situation and to look at the big picture and all the
interconnected influences.
•
A logframe is used for M&E. It is n tool that provides accountability to donors that an
organization is doing and achieving what they intended.
•
A TOC should be represented graphically.
•
A logframe is represented in a table or matrix.
Both models will include risks, assumptions, outcomes, and indicators.
Slide 7: How do we know if the Theory of Change is correct or adequate?
A TOC is adequate when it provides logical and coherent explanation of how the major
underlying causes of poverty or barriers to change are to be addressed and when it specifies
the major required areas of change with special attention to the structural dimensions.
The change demonstrated in the model must be: Plausible, Feasible, and Testable.
Slide 8: ROADMAP
Facilitator: Once again, participants have an opportunity to review the road map to
constructing a TOC. This time, the steps are shown color-coded by which steps help to
understand whether the theory is plausible, feasible, and testable.
Slides 9–10: Summary
When you have a complete TOC model, you will have:
•
A clear and testable hypotheses about how change will occur that not only allows you to be
accountable for results, but also makes your results more credible because they were
predicted to occur in a certain way
•
A visual representation of the change you want to see in your community and how you
expect it to come about
•
A blueprint for evaluation with measurable indicators of success identified
•
An agreement among stakeholders about what defines success and what it takes to get
there
•
A powerful communication tool to capture the complexity of your initiative
84
Module 5: Using the Theory of Change
You can use your TOC model:
•
As a framework to check milestones and stay on course
•
To document lessons learned about what really happens
•
To keep the process of implementation and evaluation transparent, so everyone knows
what is happening and why
•
As a basis for reports to funders, policymakers, boards
Slide 11: Discussion
Facilitator: Guide a short discussion asking participants how they intend to use the TOC
process and product in their daily work. Call out the different professional sectors in the
workshop: program development staff, project managers, M&E specialists, technical
specialists, etc.
Small Group Activity 5.1
Introduction
The final small group activity will give participants an opportunity to discuss how they might be
able to use the TOC they have developed.
Learning Objectives
This activity will help participants process how to use a TOC to
maximize comparative advantage and to identify possible partners
for achieving the long-term goal.
Estimated duration:
30 minutes
Companion Handouts
There are no handouts specific to this activity. If participants need, they may refer back to the
PowerPoint slides for this session.
Steps
Facilitator: Ask participants to discuss among their groups the comparative advantage their
organization may hold in the context of the TOC they have developed. Following this, each
group should identify possible partner stakeholders who may be able to fill gaps and assist
with achieving the long-term goal identified in their TOC.
Following this discussion, reconvene the entire group for a wrap-up and final thoughts on the
course.
85
Theory of Change: Facilitator’s Guide
Works Cited in Module 5
Anderson, A. 2005. The community builders approach to theory of change. A practical guide to
theory development. The Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change.
Caldwell, R., and S. Sprechmann. 1997. DM&E Workshop Series: Volume 2: Facilitator’s Manual.
Prepared for CARE International
IEG. 2012. Designing a results framework for achieving results: A how-to guide. Washington,
D.C.: Independent Evaluation Group.
USAID. 2010. Theories of change and indicator development in conflict management and
mitigation. Washington, D.C: USAID.
End of Module 5
86
Final Wrap-Up
Final Wrap-Up
Facilitator: This is the end of the course. During these final few minutes, explain to
participants that they should now have the skills and understanding to turn raw data into an
incredibly valuable tool for program planning: The theory of change.
Handout the course evaluation and give participants a few minutes to complete the short
form.
Ask for any final questions or comments. Provide contact information for future reference, or
remind participants where they can find the facilitator’s contact information.
Finally, thank all participants for their time and participation, and wish them good luck in
future program planning!
End of Course
87