Multi-Pollutant Analysis and Cost Effectiveness Evaluation of Voluntary Mobile Source Measures Prepared for: Houston-Galveston Area Council 3555 Timmons Lane, Suite 120 Houston, Texas 77027 Prepared by: Christian E. Lindhjem ENVIRON International Corporation 773 San Marin Drive, Suite 2115 Novato, California, 94998 www.environcorp.com P-415-899-0700 F-415-899-0707 and Barbara Joy, Earth Matters Hazel Barbour April 2014 0632913A April 2014 DRAFT CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary.................................................................................................................1 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 4 SECTION 2: CURRENT PROGRAMS ........................................................................................ 5 Commute Solutions.................................................................................................................6 Clean Vehicles Program ........................................................................................................19 Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TECQ): Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP).....................................................................................................................22 H-GAC Regional Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) .......................................................27 Drayage Loan Program..........................................................................................................28 Clean Vessels for Texas Waters ............................................................................................30 H-GAC’s ‘Engine Off’ Voluntary Idle Reduction Program .....................................................32 Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine Program .................................................................35 SECTION 3: VOLUNTARY EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM POTENTIAL ............................. 38 Control Measure 1: Vehicle Miles Traveled-based Registration Fees ..................................40 Control Measure 2: Livable Centers .....................................................................................45 Control Measure 3: Compressed Work Weeks ....................................................................49 Control Measure 4: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Programs ..............................................................52 Control Measure 5: Cleaner Diesel Fuel ...............................................................................55 Control Measure 6: Encourage Off-Peak Deliveries .............................................................58 Control Measure 7: Parking Cash Out Program ....................................................................62 Control Measure 8: Optimal Traffic Flow (Adaptive Traffic Signal Cycles/Timing to Optimize Traffic Throughput and Reversible Traffic Lanes) .....................................68 Control Measure 9: Expand the Emissions Testing Program to the Three Counties not Currently Included in the Program ..........................................................70 Control Measure 10: Off-Road Equipment Idle Reduction...................................................73 Control Measure 11: Electric Lawn Equipment Exchange Program .....................................76 Control Measure 12: Circulator service to major trip generators ........................................78 Control Measure 13: Increase HOV Occupancy to 3 or More Per Vehicle ...........................78 Control Measure 14: Managed Lanes to Accommodate Some Single Occupant Vehicles (HOT lane conversions) ...................................................................................80 i April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 15: Clean Cities Technical Coalition ..........................................................83 Control Measure 16: Heavy-duty Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance..............................83 SECTION 4: ADDITIONAL TRANSPORTATION RELATED EMISSION REDUCTION MEASURES ................................................................................................................... 86 Dedicated Overweight Truck Routes ....................................................................................87 Barge Transport ....................................................................................................................87 First and Last Mile Deliveries ................................................................................................88 INVEST Self-Assessment Tool................................................................................................88 Road Dust ..............................................................................................................................88 Buffer Zones ..........................................................................................................................88 Automated Gates at Intermodal Yards .................................................................................89 Corridor Specific TDM Planning: Real World Example .........................................................89 Eco-Driving ............................................................................................................................90 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 92 APPENDIX Supplemental Information TABLES Table ES-1. 2013 Control Programs Progress ............................................................................1 Table ES-2. Voluntary Emission Control Measures. (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low) ...........................................................................................2 Table ES-3. Summary of Additional Measures with Qualitative Emission Reduction and Cost Effectiveness Rankings (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low). ..........................................................................................3 Table 2-1. 2013 Control Programs Progress ............................................................................5 Table 2-2. Commute Solutions and other Commuting Program Progress Detail (tons/year). ..............................................................................................................7 Table 2-3. Surveyed Mode Shares in the H-GAC Planning Region. ..........................................9 Table 2-4. Emission Factors and Results For Metro Vanpools (tons/year). ...........................14 Table 2-5. Transit Pilot Projects Transit Vehicles and Emission Factors (grams/mile) Certification Levels. .........................................................................15 ii April 2014 DRAFT Table 2-6. Transit Pilot Project Ridership, VMT Reductions, and Transit VMT in 2012. ......................................................................................................................16 Table 2-7. Emission Factors and Results for Transit Pilot Programs. .....................................16 Table 2-8. Total emissions reductions from completed replacement projects funded during 2012 and 2010-2011......................................................................20 Table 2-9. Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles Summary. ..................................................................21 Table 2-10. Year 2013 TERP Funding. .......................................................................................23 Table 2-11. TERP ERIG. .............................................................................................................24 Table 2-12. 2008 – 2013 TERP ERIG in HGB Area. ....................................................................24 Table 2-13. EPA Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines. .....................................25 Table 2-14. Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) Summary. ................................................26 Table 2-15. Drayage Loan Summary ........................................................................................29 Table 2-16. Clean Vessels for Texas Waters Progress. .............................................................31 Table 2-17. Clean Vessels for Texas Program Summary. .........................................................31 Table 2-18. MOVES2010a Harris Co. average short term idle emission rates in calendar year 2018. ...............................................................................................33 Table 2-19. H-GAC’s ‘Engine Off’ Voluntary Idle Reduction Program Summary. ....................34 Table 2-20. Cost Effectiveness (C/E) for NOx and PM over 5-year project life. .......................36 Table 2-21. Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine Program Summary. ................................37 Table 3-1. Voluntary Emission Control Measures. (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low) .........................................................................................38 Table 3-2. Emission Factors and Results For 1 cent/mile VMT Tax In 2018 (Tpd). ................43 Table 3-3. Emission Factors and Results for Livable Centers in 2018 (Tpd)...........................47 Table 3-4. Other Heavy-Duty Vehicle Programs Summary. ...................................................53 Table 3-5. Emissions Reductions and Cost-effectiveness of Alternative Fuels. .....................56 Table 3-6. Cleaner Diesel Fuel Summary................................................................................57 Table 3-7. Average Delivery TruckA Emission Factors during Peak Period (7-9AM and 4-7PM) and Off-Peak Period (midday 9AM-4PM and overnight 7PM to 7AM). ........................................................................................................60 Table 3-8. Encourage Off-Peak Deliveries Off-Peak Delivery Summary. ...............................61 Table 3-9. Emission Factors and Results for Parking Cash-Out in 2018 (tons). .....................66 Table 3-10. Parking Cash-Out Air Emissions Benefit and Cost Effectiveness Summary. ..............................................................................................................67 iii April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-11. MOVES Model Annual Emissions Benefits Before and After Woodlands Parkway Traffic Signal Timing for the AM Period. ................................................68 Table 3-12. Optimal Traffic Flow Summary. .............................................................................69 Table 3-13. Expand I/M to Three Counties Summary. .............................................................72 Table 3-14. Mode Weightings and Emissions by Mode for a Sample Engines. .......................74 Table 3-15. Off-Road Equipment Idle Reduction Summary. ....................................................75 Table 3-16. Sample Costs of Electric Lawnmowers. .................................................................77 Table 3-17. Lawnmower exchange cost effectiveness ($/ton). ...............................................77 Table 3-18. Electric Lawn Equipment Exchange Program Summary. ......................................78 Table 3-19. HOV Lanes Studied. ...............................................................................................78 Table 4-1. Summary of Additional Measures with Qualitative Emission Reduction and Cost Effectiveness Rankings. ..........................................................................86 Table 4-2. Emission Factors and Results for Corridor Specific Carpooling Along 290 Construction Corridor.....................................................................................90 FIGURES Figure 2-1. NuRide telework program reporting. ....................................................................11 Figure 2-2. Vanpool vehicle miles traveled reduced. ..............................................................14 Figure 2-3. Commuter and Pilot Transit program activity.......................................................15 Figure 2-4. NOx Emission Rates for Delivery Vehicles as a Function of Hour of Day for a Weekday. ......................................................................................................59 Figure 2-5. PM2.5 Emission Rates for Delivery Vehicles as a Function of Hour of Day for a Weekday. ......................................................................................................59 Figure 3-1. HOT Lane Network. ...............................................................................................82 iv April 2014 DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary H-GAC has contracted with the ENVIRON team to complete an analysis of current and potential mobile source emission programs that includes expected reductions for multiple pollutants affecting air quality. Therefore this analysis attempts to quantify the annual emission reductions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) that affect ozone from on-going programs and reduction potential from likely programs. In addition, emission reductions of VOC, NOx, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affect ambient levels of PM2.5, so we also estimate emission reductions of PM2.5 from mobile sources. A summary of the annual emission reduction in 2013 of current programs is shown in Table ES1. The emissions reductions include projects that began before 2013 but are still producing emission reductions through 2013. This situation can occur when the emission reduction projects produce emission reductions over several years and the programs add projects each year. Table ES-1. 2013 Control Programs Progress VOC (tons) 16.1 3 0.6 NOx (tons) 38.7 7 1.4 PM2.5 (tons) 1.8 0.5 0.1 VMT/Start orVehicles 174,763,308/6,808,442 60,753,529 8,807,980 11.6 12.6 0.33 21,182,775/14,121,485 10 169 11 389 Clean School Bus* Regional TERP 0.7 150 11 2,754 0.7 65 – 275 64 3,243 Regional H-GAC TERP* Drayage Trucks 4 N/A 83 N/A 2–8 N/A 100 217 Clean Vessels for Texas Waters 3 80 1 10 engines <0.5 <2 <0.5 20,000 67 82 1 1,095 Measure Commute Solutions METRO Vanpool Commuter and Transit Pilot Projects Bicycle Pedestrian Trips/Facilities H-GAC Clean Vehicles H-GAC Engine-Off Voluntary Idling Reduction Program Air Check Texas/Low Income Repair Program *Program 2013 Funding Comments $2,500,000 $5,750,00 $520,000 2011 CMAQ funding $37,198,495 TIP Projects $1.3 million (2012) CMAQ $12.7 million (2010 – 2011) $6.2 million (2010 – 2012) $15 million (2013 only) $162 million (2008–13) $3.6 million Revolving Fund Assistance Program Supporting Clean Vehicles and Regional TERP Projects $4 million total available $1.5 million spent Program just begun. Emission reduction potential estimated for 20,000 vehicles. $2.5 million (Replacements only) benefits for Clean School Buses are included in Clean Vehicle Program; and Regional TERP in State TERP Program totals. 1 April 2014 DRAFT In addition, potential control measures were analyzed to estimate emission reduction potential, however in many cases the design and funding for each measure will determine the emission reduction realized if implemented. A summary of the measures and expected reduction are shown in Table ES-2. The measures with the best potential, shown in green in Table ES-2, are programs that affect a large number of vehicles. These measures include incorporating fees (registration, insurance, or others) relative to miles traveled, reduced commuting through encouraging alternative work locations or combining trips to reduce parking costs or commute time with HOV lanes. Table ES-2. Voluntary Emission Control Measures. (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low) Control Measure No. Description 1 Vehicle miles traveled – based registration fees and/or higher fees for high emission vehicles1 2 Encourage/Mandate Livable Centers 3 4 5 6 7 Compressed Workweek (CWW), Telework (Evaluated as compressed work week as currently implemented) Heavy-Duty Vehicle Programs Cleaner Diesel Fuel Encourage Off-Peak Deliveries Employee parking cashout program 8 Traffic Flow Improvements 9 I/M for Three Additional HGB Counties Program Summary Based on results in U.S. including now completed demonstration projects in Minnesota, Oregon, Nevada, and Washington, a 1 cent per mile tax is assessed. Scenario: 5% of 4% increase in bike/walk between 2001 and 2010. The 5% is the scenario-based livable centers estimate for 2018 until a more precise value can be projected. Scenario: 20% of employees who work for one of the 71% of employers who offer compressed work weeks participate once weekly. Reduction (tpy) VOC/NOx/PM2.5 146/456/25.6 Scope Region 11/7/0.3 Region 72/146/7 Region Other vehicle program initiatives in addition to 0.01/0.02/0.0001 Per Truck Clean Vehicles and Regional TERP programs. Alternative diesel fuels. 20%/12%/20% % Per Gallon Move trips to off-peak. 6/30/2 10% Peak VMT Build from the momentum developed in 2011183/66/11 Region 2012 using TMAs data to re-evaluate potential participation rates. Groups of these measures from 5%/8%/4% % Per Project Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) and Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). Includes infrastructure, signal timing, reversible lanes, and other measures. Temporary measures such as Ozone Action and SAFE Clear / Steer It Clear It also included. Basic program extended to three counties not 100/100/0 Chambers, already using the program. EPA does not Liberty, estimate a PM reduction from I/M. Waller 1 Higher fees for high emission vehicles not feasible under current registration fee structure; values provided are for a hypothetical VMT tax. 2 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure No. Description 10 Limitations on Idling of Heavy-Duty Construction Equipment 11 Lawn and garden equipment exchange/ recycling program 12 Circulator service to major trip generators 13 14 15 16 Reduction (tpy) Program Summary VOC/NOx/PM2.5 Scope Voluntary idle reduction for off-road 3/10/1 Thousands of equipment similar to the Engine Off program Off-Road for on-road vehicles. Equipment Exchange residential or other lawn and garden 2/0.1/0.1 2,000 Pieces equipment for zero emitting electric of equipment. Equipment Extend analysis done in 2011-2012 to new, Program design Region planned and potential shuttle services. Review and estimate potential bus fleet modernization. May, 2014 Increase HOV Occupancy Apply 3+ requirement to highways currently 426/138/33 Region to 3 or More Per Vehicle requiring only 2+. Managed Lanes to Apply method developed in 2011 – 2012 to Expected benefits Region accommodate some the project implemented or will be low because no single occupant vehicles implemented in region. VMT change, only (HOT lane conversions) small speed increase Clean Cities Technical The Clean Air Action outreach program. No emission Region Coalition effect of outreach Heavy-duty Vehicle Outlined objectives and technology to be used Likely small Region Inspection and in this program. benefit, but Maintenance Program unquantified to date H-GAC and its oversight committees have sought to better understand the emission reduction potential of a wide range of potential programs. To date, the potential program list includes the following listed in Table ES-3 along with our qualitative estimate of the potential of each measure. The measures listed here are unlikely to produce large emissions reductions, except for paving high fugitive dust areas near sensitive receptors. Table ES-3. Summary of Additional Measures with Qualitative Emission Reduction and Cost Effectiveness Rankings (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low). Measure Overweight trucking route Barge transport/return of empty shipping containers from the Port of Freeport to Port of Houston First and last mile deliveries: bottlenecks and emission reduction potential INVEST self-assessment tool to evaluate and improve the sustainability of plans and projects PM2.5 reductions for paving projects Buffer zones Automated gates optical character recognition (OCR) and drayage truck driving directions at the Port of Houston Corridor Specific TDM Planning: Real World Example Eco-Driving 3 Emission Reduction Low Low Cost Effectiveness Poor Unknown Low N/A Unknown N.A High N/A Low Medium N.A Medium Low Low Poor Poor April 2014 DRAFT SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION H-GAC has contracted with the ENVIRON team to complete an analysis of current and potential mobile source emission programs that includes expected reductions for multiple pollutants affecting air quality. Therefore this analysis attempts to quantify the annual emission reductions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) that affect ozone from on-going programs and reduction potential from likely programs. In addition, emission reductions of VOC, NOx, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affect ambient levels of PM2.5, so we also estimate emission reductions of PM2.5 from mobile sources. We did not include an evaluation of sulfur oxides (SOx) emissions that affect ambient levels of SO2 and PM2.5 because mobile sources based and fueled in the United States are required to use 15 ppm sulfur fuel and produce insignificant amounts of sulfur dioxide or sulfate particulate emissions. This report is intended to provide a review of the progress of current programs, evaluate programs that may be implemented, and suggest additional programs that have may have the potential to reduce emission cost effectively. In Section 2, we evaluate current programs using participation and cost data through calendar year 2013. In Section 3, we evaluate the emission reduction potential of programs yet to be implemented using the expertise of team members and published accounts of similar programs. Finally in Section 4, we list and qualitatively evaluate programs that may have potential to reduce emissions cost effectively. 4 April 2014 DRAFT SECTION 2: CURRENT PROGRAMS H-GAC on its own and partnering with others administers a variety of emission reduction programs in the Houston area. These programs include the following: 1. Commute Solutions 2. METRO Vanpool 3. Commuter and Transit Pilot Services Program 4. Regional Bicycle Pedestrian Programs 5. H-GAC Clean Cities / Clean Vehicles Program and Clean School Bus 6. Regional TERP 7. Drayage Loan Program 8. Clean Vessels for Texas Waters 9. H-GAC Engine-Off Voluntary Idling Reduction Program 10. Air Check Texas/Low Income Repair Program This section reviews each of these programs outlining the emission reduction to date and expected future year emission reductions and program costs. A summary of the program benefits and recent funding is provided in Table 2-1. Table 2-1. 2013 Control Programs Progress Measure Commute Solutions METRO Vanpool Commuter and Transit Pilot Projects Bicycle Pedestrian H-GAC Clean Vehicle Program Clean School Bus* State TERP in HGB VOC NOx (tons) (tons) 16.1 38.7 3 7 0.6 1.4 PM2.5 (tons) 1.9 0.5 0.1 VMT/Starts or Vehicles 174,763,308/6,808,442 60,753,529/0 8,807,980/0 2013 Funding Comments $2,500,000 TIP $5,750,000 TIP $520,000 2011 CMAQ funding $37,198,495 TIP Projects $1.3 million (2012) CMAQ $12.7 million (2010 – 2011) $6.2 million (2010 – 2012) $15 million (2013 only) $162 million (2008–13) $3.6 million Revolving Fund Assistance Program Supporting Clean Vehicles and Regional TERP Projects $4 million total available DERA $1.5 million spent Program just begun, no significant cost expected. 11.6 11 12.6 180 0.33 12 21,182,775/14,121,485 389 1 150 11 2,754 0.7 65 – 275 68 3,243 Regional H-GAC TERP* Drayage Loan Program 4 0 83 0 2–8 0 100 217 Clean Vessels for Texas Waters H-GAC Engine-Off Voluntary Idling Reduction Program Air Check Texas/Low Income Repair Program 3 80 1 10 engines <0.5 <2 <0.5 20,000 67 82 1 1,095 *Program $2.5 million (Replacements only) benefits for Clean School Buses are included in Clean Vehicle Program; and Regional TERP in State TERP Program totals. 5 April 2014 DRAFT Commute Solutions Many of the programs administered and promoted within H-GAC to encourage the use of travel modes other than driving alone fall under the general umbrella of Commute Solutions. Commute Solutions is a partnership of the Houston–Galveston Area Council (H-GAC), the Metropolitan Transit Authority (METRO), the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), Brazos Transit District, Colorado Valley Transit, Fort Bend County Transportation, the Gulf Coast Center-Connect Transit, the City of Galveston’s Island Transit, and the region's Transportation Management Organizations (TMOs), which include BayTran, Central Houston "Downtown in Motion," North Houston Association, and TREK. The purpose of Commute Solutions is to provide a “one-stop” alternative transportation resource in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area for both commuters and businesses. Members of Commute Solutions provide advice, employer outreach, answers, and assistance on commuting options and employee transportation programs. The program has assisted some of the biggest and most prestigious employers in the region in helping their employees use alternative transportation methods to get to work and has assisted residents throughout the region in getting around generally by riding the bus, vanpooling, carpooling, using NuRide, teleworking, biking and walking. Outreach by the Commute Solutions program to area employers is conducted through the Clean Air Champions program. As of March, 2014 this program has recruited approximately 117 employers representing approximately 175,000 employees, or 5.5 percent of the workforce. Below we provide emission reduction calculations for each component of the Commute Solutions program, including 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Carpooling Vanpooling General Transit Transit Pilot Programs Telework Bicycle/Pedestrian The Commute Solutions Program consists of several components. One is NuRide, which has carpool, vanpool, transit, bike/walk, telework, and compressed work week components. The others are regional carpool, transit, and telework programs participated in by employees of companies that are Clean Air Champions. These companies promote use of carpooling, transit, telework and other measures that reduce the amount of driving in the region. Commute Solutions has created the program and conducts the outreach to Clean Air Champion companies and potential companies. 6 April 2014 DRAFT Table 2-2 below presents emission reductions for each component of the Commute Solutions program and provides a comparison to other commute reduction programs not necessarily within the Commute Solution program. Table 2-2. Measure Commute Solutions Subtotal METRO Van Commuter and Transit Pilot Bicycle Pedestrian a Commute Solutions and other Commuting Program Progress Detail (tons/year). Component Carpool: NuRidea Carpool: Clean Air Champions Telework: NuRidea Telework: Clean Air Champions2 Transit: NuRidea Transit: Clean Air Champions Bike/Walk: NuRidea Commute Solutions METRO Vanpool (net): VOC 1.61 3.5 NOx 3.78 8.2 PM2.5 0.18 0.4 CO2 6,923 14,872 2013 VMT Reduced 16,894,678 36,275,908 2013 Trips Reduced 732,846 1,664,218 0.49 4.8 1.31 9.8 0.07 0.44 2,534 16,578 6,205,216 40,236,710 128,144 3,095,132 1.64 4.0 3.8 11.9 0.18 0.62 6,892 24,102 16,810,330 59,170,280 778,187 2,936,498 0.08 16.1 3.0 0.12 38.7 7.1 0.004 1.9 0.53 120 63,846 23,402 97,740 6,808,442 Assumes no trip reduction for conservatism Transit Pilot Programs (net) 0.6 1.42 0.1 3,935 Other 11.6 12.6 0.33 9,550 367,493 174,763,308 70,282,888 from passenger cars and 9,529,359 increase from vans = 60,753,529 net 9,670,914 passengers, 862,934 increase from vans; net 8,807,980 21,182,775 Assumes no trip reduction for conservatism 14,121,485 – Half of NuRide totals here was assumed to be Clean Air Champions. The Commute Solutions total row sums (1) all NuRide measures at 97%. H-GAC has compared all overlap between NuRide participants and Clean Air Champions participants and this comparison shows that 2.7 percent of NuRiders also work for Clean Air Champions (CAC) companies3. Therefore we add only the portion of NuRIde that does not overlap with the exceptions of vanpool (the only vanpooling service is Metro so the Metro values contain the full 100% considered) and bike/walk since bike/walk NuRide programs are specific to Commute Solutions while regional bicycle and pedestrian programs are treated separately and later in this this section; (2) the Clean Air Champion component of carpool, transit, and telework. An important background for the analysis is the current and expected distribution of travel by mode. For example there is already a great deal of carpooling in the Houston region. A portion of this is due to the Commute Solutions program and a portion due to other factors, and it 2 There are 1,800 teleworkers known specifically to H-GAC, representing 0.056% of the workforce. Regionally, according to surveys such as the Houston Travel survey, 12.5% of the workforce teleworks regularly. As an example of the more likely benefits of telework that could be attributed to Commute Solutions this estimate was created by scaling down the regional percentage to the percentage represented by Commute Champion companies. 3 Personal communication, H-GAC staff to ENVIRON staff, email March 25, 2014. 7 April 2014 DRAFT would be impossible to attribute or quantify the contribution with 100% certainty. The only 100% directly attributable benefits are those from the NuRide program; however NuRide represents just under one percent of carpooling in the region (0.94 percent) and a similar proportion of other alternative mode use such as telework or non-motorized travel. We approximate the Commute Solutions contribution to areawide observed levels of carpooling, telework, bicycle/walk, and transit by considering only alternative mode use by employees working at Commute Champion companies, which represent 5.5 percent of regional employment. Clean Air Champion Summary To become a Clean Air Champion for offices (there is also a program for fleets), companies fill out an application certifying that they provide two or more of the following: Supported alternative commuting methods for employees; compressed work schedules*(i.e. 9/80s, 4/10s, 3/12s) to employees; telework opportunities; subsidies for transit and vanpool use; pay-outs to employees to use alternative modes instead of parking; participate in the NuRide program; provide preferred parking or reduced parking costs to carpools and/or vanpools; Providing employees with the option of a pre-tax transit/vanpool deduction from their paychecks Under Section 132 (f) of the Internal Revenue Code, Qualified Transportation Fringe Benefits allow employees to set aside up to $230 per month pre-tax for transit or vanpool expenses, similar to a flexible spending plan for medical expenses. The employee pays no income tax on the benefit and the employer saves on payroll taxes. Providing secure bicycle racks, showers, and/or lockers. Take other measures to reduce employees' single occupancy vehicle trips and/or to promote commute alternatives. Holding an active membership in a Transportation Management Organization (TMO) or actively participating in a voluntary regional air quality program (e.g., Spare the Air, Air Awareness, SEQL, Clean Air Coalition) or another employer-based commuter program Holding an active membership in a local ozone awareness program (e.g. Clean Cities) Providing a workplace with on-site amenities (e.g. cafeteria, restaurant, post box, ATM, dry cleaning, etc.) Providing membership in a car sharing program (visit www.carsharing.net to learn more) Having an employee recognition program that promotes alternative commuting Providing incentives to encourage employees to utilize alternative transportation (e.g. the ability to earn additional vacation, quarterly raffle prizes, etc.) 8 April 2014 DRAFT Taking other measures to reduce employees' single occupancy vehicle trips and/or to promote commute alternatives. Employers are asked to provide quantitative estimates of the number of employees participating in each alternative mode, and the frequency of participation, and are encouraged to adopt NuRide as a simple and efficient method for tracking. Clean Air Champions are honored in awards luncheons and listed as Clean Air Champions in media releases or other publicity. Current Mode Shares in the Region Regionally, according to the Houston Household Travel Survey4 and other references described later, approximately 18% of work trips are via shared or non-motorized modes, with an 82% single occupant vehicle mode. There are some significant variations depending on the part of town people commute to. For example, the 2009 Downtown Houston Commute Survey Report5 found that 52% of employees working and/or living in that part of the region use shared modes as a primary means of transportation to work. As additional background, Table 2-3 below presents mode shares found in various surveys of the Houston region. Table 2-3. Surveyed Mode Shares in the H-GAC Planning Region. Commute Mode Drive Alone Transit Carpool Vanpool Regional from 2009 NHTS AddOn6 82% 5.9% 9% 1% Bike/Walk 3.1% Regional from Houston Household Survey 80.2% 4.72% 14% Included in transit 1.1% Downtown Houston 48% 37% 11% 1% 1.3% Energy Corridor Study for Houston MSA 79.2% 2.4% 11.7% Included in carpool 1.7% Energy Corridor Percentages (EC Commute Zone) 82.3% 2.0% 9.6% Included in carpool 1.0% East End Study Percentages (area 3101 example) 68.0% 8% 11% Included in carpool ~3% Commute Solutions: Carpooling (NuRide Component) As noted above, the Commute Solutions carpooling/ridesharing component has two features. One is a directly quantified portion through a contract with NuRide. The other is area-wide ridesharing made use of by approximately 11 percent of the Houston region’s population for getting to work. Both are discussed below. NuRide is one of the largest and most successful incentive-based online rideshare programs in the nation. NuRide rewards people for trips in which they choose to walk, bike, telecommute, 4 H-GAC 2008-2009 Regional Household Activity/Travel Survey. Prepared by ETC Institute, June, 2009. http://downtownhouston.org/site_media/uploads/attachments/2010-04-22/9A2009_Downtown_Houston_Commute_Survey_Report.pdf conducted by Central Houston, Inc. (CHI) 6 An Evaluation of the 2009 NHTS Add-On Surveys In Texas” Bricka et al, TTI, 2009. 5 9 April 2014 DRAFT carpool, vanpool, take transit, or work a compressed week. To date the NuRide program has over 19,400 users from more than 1,530 organizations which have reduced more than 36 million vehicles miles traveled since it began operation almost 10 years ago. In January of 2013, NuRide’s Houston members numbered 24,336, growing to 25,834 by the end of December, 2013. Records showed that 16,894,678 miles of travel were reduced in 2013, along with 732,846 vehicle trips. Using 2018 MOVEs emission factors and the above trip and VMT reductions, the NuRide program reduced nearly 1/5 of a ton of PM2.5 as well as 1.6 tons of VOC and 3.8 tons of NOx in 2013. However only a small fraction (slightly under 1%) of area carpoolers are using NuRide to schedule and track their shared rides or other alternative mode activity. Therefore we believe the scenario presented below, which uses areawide carpooling rates together with the proportion of area employees working for Commute Champions companies provides a more robust estimate of the benefits gained through the Commute Solutions Program for carpooling. Commute Solutions Carpooling: Clean Air Champions Component The Clean Air Champions program constitutes another measureable outreach program to partner with local employers to implement alternative mode use by their employees. Organizations that join the Clean Air Champion for Commuters program earn the distinction of being recognized as a regional leader of employee benefits offerings - a designation that gives them a competitive advantage in recruiting the best and brightest employees. The Clean Air Champions companies represent 174,886 employees, or 5.5 percent of regional employment. H-GAC does not wish to take credit for all carpooling in the region but carpooling engaged by employees at Clean Air Champions companies is a good indicator of the amount of regional commute carpooling that can be attributed to the Commute Solutions program. Likely some carpooling by non-clean air champions employees and by all regional residents for nonwork purposes is also due to Commute Solutions outreach. Work-based VMT in the region is estimated as 34,666,2267, which represents 20 percent of all vehicular travel in the 8 county region. Travel modeling for Houston confirms that on a daily basis over 14% of daily work VMT is made via shared mode (see footnote below). If 11% of work travel is made via carpooling, and 5.5 percent of this carpooling is due to Commute Solutions because it’s by Clean Air Champions employees, we estimate that carpooling attributable to Commute Solutions is 76,551,815 miles per year. Dividing by 2 (the overwhelming majority of commute carpools in Houston are 2 persons) we get 36,275,908 miles reduced. Using the ratio of trips to VMT reduced tracked by NuRide carpoolers (some of 7 Personal communication, email January 3, 2014 from H-GAC, to ENVIRON transmitting travel model output file tceq2_data.xlsx 10 April 2014 DRAFT whom forgo a trip to carpool and some of whom do not), we also estimate that 1,664,218 trips per day are reduced. The emission benefits, in tons per year, are 3.53 VOC; 7.18 NOx; 0.4 PM2.5; and 14,872 CO2. Commute Solutions Telework: NuRide Component The Regional Telework Incentive Pilot Program is administered by the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC), and businesses who apply and submit a telework application can receive a share of the more than $500,000 available through federal grant funding. The telework program helps regional employers and employees by educating them about the benefits of teleworking and offering financial incentives to develop and implement Telework and alternative work schedule programs. Almost 1,500 teleworkers participated in the program in 2012, and an additional 300 signed on to the program in 2013. Almost 1,800 teleworkers participated in the program in 2013, resulting in over 8 million VMT reduced with the historic growth of the program shown in Figure 2-1. The emission benefits from the NuRide only portion of telework in the area were listed in Table 2-3. Figure 2-1. NuRide telework program reporting. Source: H-GAC Path Forward Document, March, 2014. Commute Solutions Regional Telework: Clean Air Champion Component Statistics on telecommuting in the Houston region indicate a very large rate of telework regionally; much more than 1,800 people. The Houston Travel Survey8 reports that 12.5 of the workforce teleworks, although it does not track the frequency, which could be as much as daily and as infrequent as several times annually. American Community Survey data suggests 12 to 13 percent as a national average. It should be noted that 12.5% of the workforce is equal to 397,875 people. 8 See footnote 1 11 April 2014 DRAFT The Energy Corridor 2013 Inventory and Data report9 shows a telecommuting rate of 3.5% rate for the Houston MSA generally, and 3.9– 4 percent for energy corridor residents and workers. The Downtown Houston survey referenced earlier in this section reported a 4.6% telecommuting rate of between once a month to more than twice weekly, with a weighted average of 0.7 times per week. We utilize the Houston travel survey here because that survey was constructed with the purpose of describing regional travel behavior whereas the Energy Corridor and Downtown Houston surveys were for other purposes. NuRide statistics, which are a sample somewhat more specific to Clean Air Champions employees show that this sample teleworks an average of 1.35 times per week. In keeping with our approach of quantifying benefits from the Clean Air Champions employees, we utilize the average 1.36 telework days per week for frequency. As an estimate of telework emission benefits, we use the Houston travel survey regional rate surveyed (12.5%) along with the average frequency recorded by NuRide participants. Given regional employment of 3,183,000 we therefore estimate 397,875 people in the region are telecommuting. Using the same ratio of Commute Champions to total employment as noted in the regional carpooling analysis, we calculate that 21,883 people are teleworking that can be attributed to the H-GAC Commute Solutions program. The average work trip length is 13 miles each way. If they telework at an average rate of 1.36 times weekly, this will result in 40,236,710 annual VMT and 3,095,132 annual trips reduced. The annual emission benefits are 4.82 tons VOC; 9.82 tons of NOx; 0.44 tons of PM2.5; and 16,578 tons of CO2. Transit Transit use is on the rise in the region. A national report released on March 1-, 2014 by the American Public Transportation Association found that use of transit in the Houston region grew by 2.76 percent between 2012 and 2013. Houston’s Metro transit authority recorded 2.26 million trips on buses, rail and trains. A spokesperson from metro quoted in a newspaper article on March 1110, noted that a program allowing cyclists to take their bikes on buses has enjoyed strong recent gains, and that ridership is up at park and ride centers. Metro’s in-house statistics for fiscal 2013 are even higher, showing a 4.4 percent gain over 2012 in transit use and a 7.8 percent increase in park and ride lot usage. Similar to carpooling and telework, it is difficult to attribute what portion of transit use and growth is due to the efforts of Commute Solutions. Efforts by Metro also have an effect, and individuals needing to get around in the region are completely capable of deciding to use transit on their own when it makes more sense than driving in congested conditions. 9 The Energy Corridor District Land Use and Demographics, 2013 Inventory and Database, CDS Market Research Austin American Statesman, March 11, 2014. 10 12 April 2014 DRAFT A solid estimate of emission benefits that could be attributed to Commute Solutions is again made using the percentage of employees who work for Clean Air Champions companies. The regional rate of transit use for work trips ranges from 2 percent (Energy Corridor) to 37 percent (Downtown Houston), with most areas reporting approximately 5 percent. For nonwork trips, transit use appears to be approximately 0.8 percent, using the Houston Travel survey and information from the travel demand modeling section11. Our analysis below assumes the 5% rate for work trips and adjusts the 5% downwards by 5.5% to account for Clean Air Champion involvement. With 3,183,000 employed in the region, this results in 159,150 transit users who use transit to get to work, 8,753 of which work for Clean Air Champions companies. If 8,753 people use transit on an average day, this results in 59,170,280 miles per year reduced (8,753 * 260 workdays per year * 26 mile round trip commute). Finally, many individuals walk or bicycle to access transit, thus eliminating a trip as well as VMT. Metro maintains monthly statistics on “bike boardings”, the number of bicycles brought on buses equipped with bicycle racks. The 2013 Bike Report shows that a typical summer monthly average is 19,816 bike boardings, or approximately 990 bike boardings daily (per work day). Additional emission benefits from the 990 reduced trips (361,350 annually for all transit) are not credited given the small number of these that could be attributed to the Clean Air Champion employees. If the ratio of saved VMT to saved trips were the same as they are for NuRide participants, the expected trip savings is 2,936,498 Regional Vanpool Program STAR, the regional vanpool and rideshare program provided by METRO, is in its sixteenth year of operation and is one of the largest programs of its kind in the nation. The program provides a 15-, 12-, or 7-passenger van along with insurance, maintenance, roadside assistance and administrative coordination. Average fares are about $135 per month, and the average roundtrip traveled is 66 miles. Additionally, program participants receive a $35 per month subsidy to help offset vanpool costs. Volunteers within the vanpool groups do the driving. There are currently over 700 vanpools in operation with over 7,000 riders in the region. According to the Metro contractor 2Plus that promotes and manages this program, virtually none of the vanpool riders is picked up from their home; more than 99% are picked up at a central parking lot or park and ride lot. Therefore no trip reduction from the vanpooling program should be assumed. Figure 2-2 below shows the net VMT reductions per year since 200512 11 Personal communication, email January 3, 2014 from H-GAC, to ENVIRON transmitting travel model output file tceq2_data.xlsx. 12 Source: H-GAC personal communication January 28, 2014. Email from H-GAC to ENVIRON. 13 April 2014 DRAFT Total Net Vanpool VMT Reductions 812,490 2006 60,574,214 2005 58,576,726 10,000,000 57,716,742 20,000,000 52,981,738 30,000,000 48,845,147 40,000,000 60,005,158 950,773 61,907,998 50,000,000 2,069,394 59,751,108 60,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 METROVan miniPOOL Figure 2-2. Vanpool vehicle miles traveled reduced. Source: H-GAC Path Forward document, March, 2014. The program tracks and reports ridership and mileage on a monthly basis, and this data provide a straightforward way to calculate emission benefits. In 2013, the total passenger auto VMT reduced was 70,282,888 miles, or an average of 270,319 miles per average day. The vans themselves travelled 9,529,359 miles, or an average of 36,651 miles per day. Because vans are larger vehicles than passenger cars, they emit more pollutants on a gram per mile basis and the extra emissions from their use must be subtracted from the emission benefits due to the reduced driving as shown in Table 2-4. Table 2-4. Emission Factors and Results For Metro Vanpools (tons/year). Pollutant Commute Vehicles (g/mile) (LDV) Commute Reduction (ton/year) Van (g/mile)13 Van Increase Overall Emission Reduction (tons/year) VOC 0.058 4.5 0.14 1.47 3.0 NOx 0.18 13.9 0.65 6.82 7.1 CO 2.07 160.2 3.52 36.9 123.2 PM2.5 0.0095 0.74 0.02 0.21 0.53 CO2 369.5 28,601 495.4 5,199 23,402 Commute Solutions: Commuter and Transit Services Pilot Projects More than 13 pilot projects have been implemented in the HGB region using a combination of federal funds and local matching funds. Over $520,000 of federal CMAQ funds was invested in 2011 - resulting in over 8,000,000 VMT reduced. Figure 2-3 shows the ridership and vehicle miles reduced from these programs. 13 Use light commercial truck average rates (gas and diesel). 14 April 2014 DRAFT Figure 2-3. Commuter and Pilot Transit program activity. Source: H-GAC Path Forward Document, March, 2014. The emission reductions associated with the transit pilot projects are estimated by evaluating the reductions from reduced driving, offset by the emissions of the transit pilot vehicles. The vehicles used in each project, along with their emission rates (in grams per mile) are listed below in Table 2-5. Table 2-5. Transit Pilot Projects Transit Vehicles and Emission Factors (grams/mile) Certification Levels. Project Baytown Fort Bend Island Connect Sterling Ridge Woodlands Township Victory Lakes Engine(s) 2008 8.9l manufacturer not specified Currently Cummins 6.7 l 2010 diesel (used 2003 and 2006 vehicles until 2010) 2008 14.9 l engine and 2008 8.9 l engines (use higher of two factors) No information received from provider. This project started after 2010 but for conservatism we use 2008 factors. No information received from provider. This project started after 2010 but for conservatism we use 2008 factors. 2010 Cummins 8.9l diesel, 2010 NOx 1.02 0.20 NMHC 0.034 0.003 CO14 15.5 0.9 PM2.5 0.002 0.002 1.02 0.034 0.9 0.002 1.02 0.034 0.9 0.002 1.02 0.034 0.9 0.002 0.20 0.003 15.5 (Std.) 0.010 (Std.) Source: Personal Communication, 2/25/14. Email from H-GAC to Earth Matters transmitting engine specifications and emission measurements for engines used in the transit pilot projects. 14 The standard is used when the certification and ftp levels are listed as zero. 15 April 2014 DRAFT The pilot projects differ in the amount of ridership and VMT reductions. Ridership, VMT reductions and transit vehicle VMT are shown in Table 2-615. Table 2-6. Transit Pilot Project Ridership, VMT Reductions, and Transit VMT in 2012. Project Baytown Fort Bend Island Connect Sterling Ridge Woodlands Township Victory Lakes Total Ridership (sum monthly totals for year) 30,758 93,534 26,783 110,541 103,596 VMT Reduced 870,458 1,868,436 520,488 3,868,944 207,200 89,748 454,960 2,335,388 9,670,914 Transit Vehicle VMT 87,426 265,375 80,503 130,641 37,660 261,329 862,934 Source: H-GAC, January 2014 The PM2.5 emission Reductions from the riders are 0.1 ton per year; increases from the transit vehicles are 0.002 tons. The net reduction rounds to 0.1 tons as shown in Table 2-7. Table 2-7. Emission Factors and Results for Transit Pilot Programs. Pollutant Commute Vehicle (g/mile) (LDV) Commute annual reduction Transit vehicles (g/mile)16 Transit vehicle increase Emission Reduction (tons/year) VOC 0.058 0.62 0.015 0.014 0.61 CO 2.30 22.05 6.59 6.26 15.8 NOx 0.18 1.92 0.52 0.49 1.42 PM2.5 0.0095 0.10 0.002 0.002 0.10 CO2 369.5 3,935 N/A 0 3,935 Energy Corridor District’s Carshare Program The Energy Corridor in partnership with Enterprise Holdings provides commuters access to vehicles on days they use a commute alternative. CarShare vehicles are available for hourly rental at two different sites for personal or work errands throughout the day, with fuel, physical damage/liability protection, vehicle maintenance, and 24/7 roadside and member assistance included. This program assists in making alternative mode use more attractive to users and is not assumed here to result in additional emission reductions. In a discussion of potential new and previously un-evaluated measures presented later, a hypothetical area-wide carsharing program of the type that reduces car ownership is presented, similar to the Car2Go program in Austin. 15 Source: H-GAC staff January 28, and February 25, 2014 Weighted average by mileage of transit pilot vehicles in 2012 resulting in approximately 20% 2008 type emission factors and 80% 2010 type emission factors. 16 16 April 2014 DRAFT Bicycle Pedestrian Measures Although Houston is viewed as a busy, traffic clogged city where people insist on relying upon their cars for getting around, there is actually a substantial amount of bicycle use. There are a growing number of bicycle and pedestrian paths and walkways and a concentrated effort to connect these walkways with activity centers, transit centers, and eachother. In addition, measures such as requiring buses to have bike racks increase bicycle use. In 2013, 167,421 bike boardings on buses were recorded17 NuRide Bicycle/Walk Trips NuRide began tracking participation in 2009 and shows a significant amount of participation although it does capture less than one percent of total regional bicycle/walking modes. In 2013 NuRide statistics show that 9,116 vehicle trips were reduced, along with 192,977 miles of vehicular travel. Using 2018 emission factors, this reduces (annually) NOx by 0.11 tons; VOC by 0.08 tons; PM2.5 by 0.0045 tons, CO by 0.91 tons, and CO2 by 119.6 tons. Bicycle Pedestrian Program Regional Estimated Effect Regionally, there is a vibrant move toward more bicycle use. The City of Houston offers over 300 miles of an interconnected bikeway network spanning across 500 square miles. The network includes bike lanes, bike routes, signed-shared lanes and shared-use paths, commonly referred to as ‘hike and bike’ trails, which includes rails to trails, and other urban multi-use paths. In addition to these bicyclist transportation facilities, there are over 80 miles of hike and bike and nature trails found in City of Houston parks. In addition, Harris County and many municipal utility districts have constructed over 160 miles of bikeways within the City limits. The move toward requiring more bicycle racks on transit buses also encourages additional bike use, as noted above, 167,421 bike boardings were counted in 2013. 17 H-GAC’s Special Districts Program identifies districts within the region where walking and bicycling are in greatest demand. H-GAC works with local partners in these districts to develop pedestrian and bicycle master plans that identify improvements to pedestrian and bicycle mobility and safety. The City of Houston continues to expand the bikeway network through the construction of both on and off street bikeways. Many bicyclists are awaiting the completion of the trail extension along White Oak Bayou, and there is also an on-street component to accompany the off-street facility. The pavement markings along Antoine are being revised to provide a 14 foot-wide outside lane. The Regional Bikeway Viewer is provided online as an interactive map of existing and planned bikeways in the Houston-Galveston region. The Bikeway Viewer allows users to see the regional bikeway network in its entirety, or zoom in for a closer look at specific areas of interest. Metro Bike Boarding Running Count FY 2011 – FY 2014 by month 17 April 2014 DRAFT The Sunday Streets program will open White Oak, Westheimer and Washington/Market Square to bicyclists and pedestrians on the first Sundays in April, May and June 2014, respectively, from 11am-3pm. TxDOT contractors are also installing new pedestrian-bicyclist bridges along Brays Bayou. The West White Oak Bayou Trail offers bicyclists and pedestrians almost 5 miles of 10foot wide concrete and asphalt trail with 2-foot shoulders on each side. The trail is lighted and includes railings in some areas. The trail runs along the bayou and T. C. Jester Park, parallel to T. C. Jester Boulevard, from 11th Street to Pinemont. The existing White Oak Bayou trail is being extended almost 3 miles from Pinemont to Victory. New Bicyclist-Pedestrian Study of the Clear Lake Area: the Houston Bikeway Program, within the Department of Public Works and Engineering, is partnering with the HoustonGalveston Area Council to conduct a bicyclist-pedestrian study of the Clear Lake area. The Houston Bikeway Program, within the Department of Public Works and Engineering, is partnering with the Houston-Galveston Area Council to conduct a bicyclist-pedestrian study of the Clear Lake area. Using the values derived from the frequency distribution of trips by trip length it is apparent that at least 58,035 miles and 38,689 trips per day are being reduced due to use of facilities provided and encouragements to participate in bicycle and pedestrian programs. This value is derived from assuming that one percent of trips less than 2 miles is valid. Since the measured value is as high as 3% and since many of the bicycle trips might be at least 5 miles in length, this value should be conservative. The annual reduction is 21,182,775 miles and 14,121,485 trips, reducing 11.6 tons of VOC; 12.6 tons of NOx; 0.33 tons of PM2.5; and 9,550 tons of CO2 annually. 18 April 2014 DRAFT Clean Vehicles Program This fuel neutral program is designed to reduce on-road vehicle emissions by rapid turnover to newer lower emitting engines, retrofit of existing engines with approved devices, or introduce new lower emission technologies. Vehicle owners can access grant funds through the program and possibly supplemental with low interest loans through the Drayage Loan program that enables eligible truck owners to finance the purchase of newer, cleaner and more environmentally-friendly trucks. For the period 2012-2013, of the 176 projects awarded grant funds through the Clean Vehicles Program, 28 (4 of which were school buses and the rest heavy-duty trucks) from 2012 were finalized as of January 2014. The remaining projects initiated during 2012 and 2013 but not yet finalized will produce emission reductions once the truck or truck engines have been replaced and returned to service. Thus, for the purposes of this document, emissions benefit and cost effectiveness have been calculated for the 28 completed projects. To provide a longer term picture of the program, we add to the 2012 projects the 204 projects (64 school buses) from the 2010 and 2011. The year 2010 is important because a new NOx emission standard for heavy-duty on-road engines was implemented that year, and engines/vehicles replaced since 2010 provide a good picture of future projects. Administration Resources In Houston, H-GAC administers a program under The Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles Program18 where federal Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) funds are distributed to replace or retrofit lower emitting heavy-duty. This is part of the Houston Galveston Clean Cities Coalition (HGCCC) that has been in existence since 199419. The Clean Vehicles program is run with six staff to review new projects and administer past projects through completion of the contracts. The cost of the oversight leads to an internal budget of $370,000 for administration. The program lets several million dollars per year in project funding making the overhead a fraction of the program cost. Project funding (Other Costs) This program uses Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) funding. The CMAQ program was implemented to support surface transportation projects and other related efforts that contribute air quality improvements and provide congestion relief since 1991.20 Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Emissions factors from a Fleet Emissions Calculator tool were used to assess VOC, NOx, PM and PM2.5 vehicle emissions. This calculator was developed using Houston area conditions with the 18 http://www.houston-cleancities.org/# http://www.houston-cleancities.org/coalition.htm 20 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/air_quality/cmaq/ 19 19 April 2014 DRAFT MOVES2010 emissions model using area average vehicle speeds. It determines the emissions for the replace and replacement vehicles and cost effectiveness using the project costs. The MOVES Source Use Type was used to categorize vehicles. As 75% of the mileage for vehicles funded under the Clean Vehicles Program must be in the 8 county HGB non-attainment area, it was assumed that the heaviest duty vehicles would be combination short-haul trucks. Using the average annual mileage of 20,452 for the 28 vehicles replaced to date during 2012, a 5 year project life, and the total grant cost of $1,240,497 for the 28 projects, annual emission reductions and cost effectiveness per pollutant for the program are provided in Table 2-8. The 204 projects initiated in 2010-2011 reported 32,738 average annual mileage with a total grant cost of $12,709,775. Table 2-8 shows the Clean Cities progress over three recent years progress of progress because a low NOx emission standard was implemented in 2010. Table 2-8. Total emissions reductions from completed replacement projects funded during 2012 and 2010-2011. Pollutant VOC NOx PM2.5 VOC NOx PM2.5 Emission Reduction Cost Effectiveness (Tons/Year) ($/ton) 2012 (28 projects) 0.5 8.2 $30,000 0.5 $530,000 2010 – 2011 (204 projects) 6.0 101.7 $24,000 6.5 $370,000 The NOx cost effectiveness per ton for the 2010-2011 Clean Cities Program for all replaced vehicles (204) was estimated to be $22,534. From Table 2-8 above, the NOx cost effectiveness per ton is $30,352 and the multi-pollutant cost effectiveness per ton is calculated to be $25,736 over a 5 year project life. However, until the data can be finalized from the incomplete vehicle replacement projects, it is difficult to rely on the numbers in the above table as an accurate assessment of the effectiveness of the program as a whole for the period 2012-2013. Many of the projects funded under this program were retrofits of school buses primarily to reduce PM, so NOx emissions reduction of those projects were minimal, so the NOx cost effectiveness is lower than if all projects target NOx emission reductions. School buses also drive less and therefore create fewer emission reductions and are less cost effective than larger trucks. Overall school bus projects for 2010-2011 result in 6.2 NOx and 0.40 PM2.5 tpy reduction and for 2012 0.4 NOx and 0.03 tpy PM2.5 reduction. Overall, the project life is at least 5 years and sometimes longer, so scaling the 2010 – 2012 Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles projects to 5 years, 180 tons of NOx and 12 tons of PM2.5 per year 20 April 2014 DRAFT will be reduced through this program of which 11 tpy and 0.7 PM2.5 were derived from school bus replacements. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Costs per project calculated simultaneously with the project benefits. Per replacement project averages $50,000 - $60,000. Other Benefits or Considerations Owners should have better reliability with the new engine and vehicle purchased under this program. A summary of the Clean Cities program is provided in Table 2-9. Table 2-9. Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate 6% overhead for H-GAC staff on average. Project costs for replacement engine. 180 tons per year NOx and 12 tons per year PM2.5 $25,000 per NOx ton reduced and $400,000 per PM2.5 ton reduced Better vehicle and engine reliability, and multiple pollutant benefits. 21 April 2014 DRAFT Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TECQ): Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality’s (TCEQ) Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) program has arguably been the most important voluntary project in the state providing a pool of grant money to upgrade or replace engines to reduce emissions. TCEQ provides TERP funding for emission reduction projects to participants in the HGB area and contracts. Administration Resources The Texas State legislature established the TERP in 2001 and subsequent legislatures have defined the program’s goals, funding, and disbursement. The original TERP (TCEQ 2012) program budget included the elements as follows: 87.5 percent to be used for the emissions reduction incentive programs; 9 percent to be used for the New Technology Research and Development (NTRD) program, of which $500,000 was to be deposited to the Clean Air Account to supplement funding for air quality activities in affected counties, up to $200,000 allocated for a health effects study, and a minimum 20 percent to support air quality research in the Houston–Galveston– Brazoria and Dallas–Fort Worth nonattainment areas; and 2 percent for the administrative costs associated with the TCEQ’s administration of the Texas Emissions Reduction Plan and 1.5 percent for the administrative costs of the Texas Energy Systems Laboratory, Texas Engineering Experiment Station, Texas A & M University. Of the money allocated to the emissions reduction incentive programs, the total appropriation from the TERP Fund was reallocated in 2011 as follows: not more than 4 percent for the Texas Clean School Bus Program; not more than 10 percent for the Heavy-Duty Motor Vehicle Purchase or Lease Incentive Program; a specified amount may be used for the New Technology Implementation Grants Program; 5 percent for the Texas Clean Fleet Program; not less than 16 percent for the Texas Natural Gas Vehicle Grants Program; not more than 4 percent for the Clean Transportation Triangle Program; up to 2 percent for the Alternative Fueling Facilities Program; not more than $7 million in FY 2012 and FY 2013 and not more than $3 million in subsequent fiscal years for a regional air monitoring program in TCEQ Regions 3 and 4; a specified amount to support research related to air quality as provided by Texas Health and Safety Code Chapter 387; up to $200,000 for a health effects study; 22 April 2014 DRAFT up to $500,000 to be deposited to the Clean Air Account for air quality planning activities in affected counties; not more than $216,000 to the TCEQ to contract with the Energy Systems Laboratory annually for the development and annual computation of creditable statewide emissions reductions obtained through wind and other renewable resources; not more than $3.4 million to the TCEQ for administrative costs (in 2011, the overall budget allocation was $117 million and with legislative changes reduced to $84 million, so $3.4 million amounted to 3-4%); 1.5 percent for administrative costs incurred by the Energy Systems Laboratory; and the balance is allocated to the TCEQ for the Emissions Reduction Incentive Grants Program. The TERP budget provided for various alternatives, special studies, and other options, but the overall TCEQ administration budget amounted to 2 – 3% of the money spent for emission reduction programs. While annual budget for TERP programs is $100 million or more, some of this is spent on research and innovative demonstrations or other approaches as well as administration. For 2013, the total grant amount let for projects was $64 million of which $22 million was granted to projects within the HGB nonattainment area. A summary of the project funding and administration costs are provided in Table 2-10. Administration costs that comer from H-GAC’s budget are a small fraction of the program funding but increase the cost and cost effectiveness of projects by about 3%. H-GAC was directed to market and administer special TERP projects to encourage additional participation in the program. H-GAC dedicated one staff member to work on those projects. The H-GAC staff assigned to local projects also assisted TCEQ in generating interest in the program that provided grants to TERP projects directly through TCEQ instead of through H-GAC. The third party grant to H-GAC began with the 2013 fiscal year, so the H-GAC program has just begun. Table 2-10. Year 2013 TERP Funding.21 Program TERP – TCEQ Administration Overhead 2 - 4% Administration (cost/ year) ~$3,000,000 2013 TERP Project Funding <$100 Million Total $22 Million in HGB 21 Notes Program administrator, fraud examiner, other technical and administrative staff. TCEQ 2012. “Texas Emissions Reduction Plan Biennial Report (2011-2012), A Report to the 83rd Texas Legislature,” SFR079/12, December 2012. 23 April 2014 DRAFT Project Funding (Other Costs) The TERP funding shown in Table 2-11 is the fraction due to direct funding of replacement and retrofits of engines replacements for on-road vehicles and off-road equipment. Other projects, such as truck stop electrification through the Emission Reduction Incentive Grant (ERIG) program, are included as well. The TERP program has also begun to facilitate the implementation of emission reductions through third party grants to H-GAC that had yet to be fully subscribed as of January 2014. Table 2-11. TERP ERIG. Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TERP ERIG Grants $ 2,856,423 $ 11,211,138 $ 22,280,306 $ 105,165,295 $ 45,109,162 $ 49,433,353 $ 55,986,327 $ 27,678,029 $ 50,425,052 $ 4,663,751 $ $ 22,454,852 Over the last six years of the TERP grants program the funding and emission reductions are shown in Table 2-12. Table 2-12. 2008 – 2013 TERP ERIG in HGB Area. Category Non-Road On-Road Stationary Locomotive Marine ERIG Total Projects 1849 1225 38 12 93 3217 Grant Amount $76,888,093 $64,269,084 $981,156 $11,303,055 $7,766,624 $161,208,011 NOx (tons) 8,884 6,840 153 2,439 2,167 20,484 NOx (tons/yr) 1307 976 24 130 297 2,734 NOx Cost Effectiveness ($/ton) $ 8,655 $ 9,395 $ 6,395 $ 4,635 $ 3,584 $ 7,870 Annual Cost ($/ton/yr) $58,844 $65,816 $41,374 $86,827 $26,152 $58,964 Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis TCEQ has developed a methodology to analyze and report NOx emission reduction, the primary objective of the TERP program. While PM reductions are also useful for air quality, TCEQ does not report PM reductions from the TERP projects. In order to estimate the PM reductions, we have investigated the likely relative emission reduction of PM and NOx emission using sample emission projects with the relative emission standards of replaced and replacement engines. The estimates of PM reductions are approximate because a detailed project by project estimate 24 April 2014 DRAFT is beyond the scope of this analysis, and TCEQ does not provide the specific model years and other projects’ information in their public reports. Table 2-13 on-road emission standards show the emissions standards by model year and provide one basis for estimating the relative NOx and PM emission reduction with engine/vehicle replacement emission reduction projects. For example, in 2013 a ten-year old vehicle/engine replaced with a new vehicle/engine resulted in a 95% reduction in NOx and a 90% reduction in PM, and the relative reduction per hp-hr for NOx is about forty times that of the PM reduction. Before 2010, a ten-year old vehicle replaced would have resulted in NOx reductions about thirty times the PM emission reduction. Table 2-13. EPA Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines. Model Year 1988 – 1989 1990 1991 – 1993 1994 – 1997 1998 – 2003 2004 – 2006 2007 – 2009 2010 1 2 NOx (g/hp-hr) 10.7 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 2.4 1.32 0.2 PM1 (g/hp-hr) 0.60 0.60 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.01 0.01 – PM is total particulate while PM2.5 is 92 - 97% of PM – 50% of fleet meets new NOx standards For the off-road emission standards shown in Table A-1, a similar ten-year old engine/equipment replaced with a new Tier 4 engine results in a greater than 90% reduction in NOx and PM. NOx mass reductions were about forty times the PM reductions. The PM reductions for the 2008 – 2013 year grants would have resulted in about 65 tons of PM reductions per year by dividing estimated from the NOx reductions of 2,754 tons per year by a NOx to PM emission reduction ratio of forty to one. However, an alternative view of the expected relative NOx and PM emission reductions is provided by MOVES model runs. Table A-2 provides the running emission rates in gram per mile for combination short haul trucks, the largest truck type that would be locally based. Using these emission factors, replacing a ten-year old truck with a new truck would result in NOx emission reductions ten to eighteen times what the PM reductions would be. Using the relative NOx and PM reduction ratio figure of ten to one, PM reductions from the TERP grants would increase to 275 tons per year reduced. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Likewise because of the relative NOx and PM emission reductions per project, PM cost effectiveness is about ten to forty times higher than the NOx cost effectiveness, of about $9,000 per ton reduced for the most recent projects. So PM cost effectiveness alone (without 25 April 2014 DRAFT considering the NOx or other emission reductions) is about $90,000 - $360,000 per ton of PM reduced. Other Benefits or Considerations The primary purpose of the TERP program is to reduce NOx emissions, however most replacement engines provide lower VOC, CO, PM and toxic emissions as well. The PM emission reductions have been included in the summary results. Another benefit of engine replacements is that the vehicle and equipment owners have a new engine, which should be more reliable. The cost benefit of better reliability is difficult to estimate, but improved engine reliability is part of an incentive for fleet operators to participate in such projects. Table 2-14 provides a summary of TERP program progress. Table 2-14. Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Typically 3% of direct grant funding Direct emission reduction project funding Emission reductions of NOx and PM from diesel engines: 2008 – 2013 NOx reduction of 2,754 tons/year and PM reductions of 65 – 275 tons/year $9,000 per NOx ton and $90,000 - $360,000 per PM ton Additional PM, CO, ROG, and toxic emission reductions; and fleet operator engine reliability improvements 26 April 2014 DRAFT H-GAC Regional Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) H-GAC was awarded a third party contract of TERP funding. From 2008-2013, H-GAC operated the first Regional TERP and was commended by TCEQ as being one of the most successful first rounds of third party TERP contracts. H-GAC has received another grant to administer another Regional TERP program from 2013-2015. Administration Resources Where the TCEQ TERP can be broad, the H-GAC Regional TERP focuses on two elements: creating NOx reductions by replacing on-road vehicles and off road equipment of local government entities, and creating NOx reductions by replacing on-road vehicles associated with the H-GAC Drayage Loan Program. The benefits of seeking Regional TERP funding include: Applicants compete with other applicants within the HGB area, not the entire state of Texas. H-GAC Staff works directly with applicants to form viable projects. H-GAC Staff will seek applicants to prompt their interest in the Regional TERP. Each project is evaluated every two years of the monitoring period to ensure that the usage commitment is being completed. In cases where the usage commitment has not been met, H-GAC bills the recipient for a partial grant repayment equal to the unmet usage. The partial grant repayment alters the contracted NOx reduction. These reductions are included in the following results section. Results The first H-GAC Regional TERP program provided $3,546,061 grant funds contracting for a NOx emission reduction of 405 tons from on-road vehicles and off road equipment (Local Government and Drayage Loan Trucks). The TERP investment cost $8,754 per ton of NOx-only reduction. The PM reductions were not enumerated, but we estimate that PM reductions were 10 – 40 tons with cost effectiveness of $90,000 - $360,000 per ton PM-only reduced over the past six years of grant program funding. The second H-GAC Regional TERP program, which is currently open to Local Governments, has currently provided $78,015 grant funds contracting for a NOx emission reduction of 7.8 tons from off road equipment. The TERP investment cost $10,000 per ton of NOx-only reduction. The PM reductions were not enumerated, but we estimate that PM reductions were at least 0.2 – 0.7 tons. The emission reductions reported here are included in the total TERP progress reported previously in this report. 27 April 2014 DRAFT Drayage Loan Program The H-GAC Drayage Loan Program, a collaborative effort between H-GAC, Environmental Defense Fund and the Port of Houston Authority, is an innovative program that provides low interest loans with a grants for eligible applicants to replace older trucks with newer, cleaner and more environmentally-friendly trucks. H-GAC uses the Regional TERP program or the Clean Vehicles program (depending upon funding availability) to provide the granting component. These programs may provide private entities, such as drayage owner/operators and drayage trucking companies, grants based upon NOx reduction caused by heavy duty diesel engine replacement. H-GAC used a DERA grant from the EPA to establish a revolving loan fund that provides the loan component of the Drayage Loan Program. The loan establishes a “bridge” that removes a barrier by funding the remaining cost of the purchase of a new truck that the granting element will not fund. The traditional method of seeking conventional loans for this bridge typically results in unfavorable terms (e.g., high interest rates and/or an abbreviated repayment schedule) creating monthly payments too large for an owner/operator’s budget. By offering a lower interest rate (4% in most cases) and a longer loan term (5 years), owner/operators and drayage companies are provided more feasible access to clean diesel programs. The DERA grant establishes goals of job creation, job retention, and increasing economic opportunities in disadvantaged minorities. Please view the Drayage Loan Program’s website for more information: (http://www.h-gac.com/taq/airquality/drayageloans/default.aspx) Administration Resources The Drayage Loan Program is administered by two H-GAC staff at a cost of about $140,000 per year. Project funding (Other Costs) The initial funding provided by the loan component is the only direct cost of the program. H-GAC revolves the loan payments received, or program income, in order to provide loan funding for additional loans. Contrarily, loan defaults would decrease the program income. However, no defaults have occurred in the Drayage Loan Program as of date. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Emission reductions from the Drayage Loan Program are calculated in the respective Regional TERP and Clean Vehicle programs. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Cost effectiveness of the Drayage Loan Program is calculated in the respective Regional TERP and Clean Vehicle programs. 28 April 2014 DRAFT Other Benefits or Considerations The Drayage Loan Program provides an additional incentive to participate in the Regional TERP and Clean Vehicle programs. Table 2-15 summarizes the administrative aspects of the Drayage Loan Program. Table 2-15. Drayage Loan Summary Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate H-GAC Staff Time Loans should be repaid resulting in no direct costs. No emission reductions separate of the TERP and Clean Vehicles programs. Not applicable Overall support to other emission reduction programs. 29 April 2014 DRAFT Clean Vessels for Texas Waters The National Clean Diesel Funding Assistance Program began as a Diesel Emissions Reduction National Program (DERA) from which federal funding has been provided in 2008 – 2011 timeframe. Funds have been made available to replace marine engines on high use tugs, and this source represents an important and cost effective source category to address larger in-use engines. Funding has been used to begin the Clean Vessels for Texas Waters program. Administration Resources H-GAC and the Port of Houston have prepared and been awarded grants and continue to work with partners to identify and implement marine engine replacement projects. Project Funding (Other Costs) Three grants totaling nearly $4 million have been made to H-GAC and the Port of Houston under Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) or the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis The emission reduction identified will depend upon the replaced engine emission rates. Table A-3 provides the base emission factors for marine engines, and Tier 1 engines which followed the emission standards begun in 2000. Tables A-4, 2-27, and 2-18 provide the emission standards for newer engines and provide a basis for evaluating the potential benefits of marine engine replacement projects. The difference between the new and old engine emission factors (EF) in units of power (kilowatts, kW) multiplied by the annual work results in the expected emission reduction. Emission reductions = Engine power X Load Factor X Hours X (EFnew – EFold) There have been two programs targeting marine engine emissions, the Texas Emission Reduction Plan (TERP) and the federal grant funded program Clean Vessels for Texas Waters that provide a basis for evaluating the emission benefits and cost effectiveness. The 388 TERP marine projects have cost $38 million to date and are reducing NOx emissions by 1500 tons per year with a cost effectiveness of $3,250 per NOx ton reduced. The TERP marine projects mostly occurred from 2004 through 2013, and replaced precontrolled (<2000 model year) engines with Tier 2 engines. To estimate a PM reduction, a 20-30% reduction in PM (0.3 to 0.2 g/kW-hr) and 30-40% reduction in NOx (10 to 7.2 g/kW-hr for cylinder displacement of 2.5 to 3.5 liters) was expected. Using the ratio of PM and NOx relative benefits and the NOx reductions of 1,500 tons in the TERP program, estimated PM2.5 emission reductions from these projects are 50 tons per year. The Clean Vessels for Texas program provides a second set of projects that were federally funded engine replacements. The estimated cost was about $1.6 million and reduced NOx by 30 April 2014 DRAFT 77 tons per year and PM by more than 0.8 tons per year as shown in Table 2-16. The Phillip K, Judge, and Kristy L engine replacement projects were Category 2 engines and therefore provided larger NOx than PM reductions due to the engine type and replacement model years. As the program moves forward greater PM reductions could be realized as the PM emission standard is reduced for marine engines model year 2013 and later. Table 2-16. Clean Vessels for Texas Waters Progress. Engine Identifier Phillip K Main Starboard Phillip K Main Port Judge Main Starboard Judge Main Port Phillip K Generator Starboard Phillip K Generator Port Kristy L Main Starboard Kristy L Main Port Sam Houston Propulsion Sam Houston Auxiliary Total NOx Reduction (tons/year) 14.7 14.7 15.1 15.1 1.9 1.9 6.9 6.9 2.6 0.9 80.7 PM Reduction (tons/year) 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.25 0.05 1.12 Costs and Cost Effectiveness Costs for marine projects have been established based on recent state and federal grants. NOx cost effectiveness is well established at near $3,000 per ton through the TERP and Clean Vessels programs. The estimated PM2.5 – only control cost would be about 30-100 times the NOx estimate based on relative emissions benefits at $90,000 - $250,000. Other Benefits or Considerations The vessel owners typically get a new engine that needs less maintenance. Table 2-17 provides a summary of the Clean Vessels for Texas program expected progress when fully implemented. Table 2-17. Clean Vessels for Texas Program Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate H-GAC and Port of Houston staff provides grant oversight. Direct engine replacement costs. 90 tons NOx and 3 tons PM2.5 reduction per year when fully implemented $3,000 per NOx ton and $90,000 - $250,000 per PM2.5 ton reduced No significant issues, but multiple pollutant benefits. 31 April 2014 DRAFT H-GAC’s ‘Engine Off’ Voluntary Idle Reduction Program In 2012, in partnership with local governments, citizen and environmental groups, business and industry-based organizations and other stakeholders H-GAC developed the Engine Off voluntary idling reduction program and adopted a voluntary diesel idling reduction policy.22 The antiidling policy aims to lower particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and other emissions by placing a five-minute idle limit on motor vehicles. Along with promoting this voluntary policy region-wide, H-GAC provides idling reduction bumper stickers and signs within our region free of charge. The Port of Houston Authority has been a major partner in developing and supporting this program, posting over 100 idling reduction signs at the Turning Basin terminal within the Port.23 Through 2013, H-GAC has signed on the following fleets and is engaged with partners including those participating in TERP, Drayage Loan, and other heavy-duty vehicle emission reduction projects: 22 23 Alief Independent School District (ISD) Alvin ISD Angleton ISD Alain Garcia Independent Trucking AT&T Barbers Hill ISD Brazosport ISD City of Houston Clear Creek ISD Columbia-Brazoria ISD Conroe ISD Crosby ISD Cypress-Fairbanks (Cy-Fair) ISD Damon ISD Danbury ISD Dickinson ISD Davenport Transportation & Rigging Fast Trac Transportation Fort Bend ISD Friendswood ISD Galena Park ISD Galveston ISD Goose Creek Consolidated ISD Harris County High Island ISD http://www.h-gac.com/taq/airquality/engineoff/default.aspx http://www.h-gac.com/taq/airquality/engineoff/default.aspx. 32 Houston Astros Houston ISD Houston Biodiesel Huffman ISD Humble ISD Jose Alfaro Independent Trucking Klein ISD Magnolia ISD Museum Park Super Neighborhood North Forest ISD Our Lady Queen of Peace Catholic School Pasadena ISD Pearland ISD Port of Houston Santa Fe ISD Sheldon ISD Spring ISD Sweeny ISD Texas City ISD Tomball ISD TxDOT UPS Waller ISD Westside High School, HISD April 2014 DRAFT Administration Resources H-GAC administers this program with internal air quality staff and through partners. H-GAC will work with partners to document progress of these programs. Project funding (Other Costs) Direct projects costs have been minimal with small one-time costs incurred for printing signs and bumper stickers. Multi‐pollutant reduction analysis For all vehicles, a benefit can be estimated if the number of hours that idling was reduced can be determined. Table 2-18 provides the per vehicle short term (<1 hour) idling emission rates. Table 2-18. MOVES2010a Harris Co. average short term idle emission rates in calendar year 2018. Vehicle Type Passenger cars (gasoline) Passenger trucks (gasoline) Light Commercial Truck Gasoline Light Commercial Truck Diesel Single Unit Short-haul Truck Diesel Single Unit Long-haul Truck Diesel Combination Short-haul Truck Diesel Combination Long-haul Truck Diesel VOC (g/hr) 0.35 0.98 1.26 4.24 2.35 2.27 5.36 6.00 CO (g/hr) 4.02 20.24 20.42 21.84 8.02 7.85 15.16 16.83 NOx (g/hr) 0.98 3.18 5.01 75.29 14.45 14.22 37.03 44.97 PM2.5 (g/hr) 0.047 0.033 0.033 2.013 1.085 1.045 2.634 2.920 For heavy-duty vehicles, Tables A-4 and A-5 provide the MOVES idle emission rates for PM2.5 and NOx for short term and extended idling. The MOVES definition of extended and short term idle is above or below one hour as described in the MOVES2009 technical documentation of heavy-duty emission factors.24 It is possible that many trucks will idle in excess of one hour per event, and yet not be considered extended idling. Drayage and trucks from the Port and other local delivery trucks are uniquely important fleets, and H-GAC has been collecting data that shows these trucks idle more than 30% of their operating time or over 800 hours per year. Long haul trucks by contrast can idle less than 10% of the time the engine is running except for extended idling during layovers. Excess idling may occur at pick-up and delivery points for shorter periods. H-GAC has been collecting idling time from participants of its heavy-duty emission reduction programs using on-board activity monitors and expects to be able to determine the benefits of the Engine Off program. Because drayage trucks for example idled 808 hours per truck on 24 . EPA. 2009. “Development of Emission Rates for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (Draft MOVES2009) Draft Report,” Assessment and Standards Division Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-420-P-09-005, August 2009. 33 April 2014 DRAFT average in 2013, one ton of PM2.5 may be eliminated if no excess idling occurs from 3,000 to 6,000 2007 and later model year trucks, or 150 older model year trucks. Reductions of NOx emissions may be considerably higher depending upon how long each idling event is because the NOx controlling catalyst becomes less efficient as the engine cools at idle. Short term idling of late model trucks may produce one ton of NOx per year for every 150 trucks, while under extended idling conditions only seven trucks would produce one ton of NOx per year. Older trucks have NOx emission rates similar to those of late model extended idling during all idle modes. If several thousand truck change their operations to largely eliminate idling, 1 – 20 tons of PM2.5 and 20 to 400 tons of NOx may be reduced. If it can be determined that light-duty vehicles have reduced idling, those emission can also be estimated based on the number of hours reduced. Because of the lower emissions rates for smaller vehicles, the program must involve a larger number of vehicles. It may difficult to determine how much idling time is reduced through a voluntary program for the large number of vehicles participating in idle reduction. Costs and Cost Effectiveness The costs for administering the program are minimal, and the fleet operators may realize a monetary benefit from reduced fuel costs and less engine wear. Other Benefits or Considerations Idle reduction is cost saving opportunity for fleet operators reducing fuel consumption and engine wear. In addition, local exposure to air pollution near the idling engine is reduced, and for that reason school bus idle reduction has been emphasized. Emission reductions for all pollutants will occur, and local air quality benefits, such as near schools, will be realized. Table 2-19. H-GAC’s ‘Engine Off’ Voluntary Idle Reduction Program Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate H-GAC staff as part of overall air quality program implementation. Marginal printing costs for signs, and a partial FTE administrative staff to educate and enroll partners and collect progress data. 1 to 20 tons per year PM2.5 and 20 to 400 tons per year NOx Insignificant, zero, or a cost savings. Local air pollution exposure reductions especially at schools. 34 April 2014 DRAFT Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine Program Owners of vehicles that either fail the emissions test or are 10 years old or older can receive funding from the Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine Program (formerly known as the Low Income Repair Assistance, Retrofit and Accelerated Vehicle Retirement Program) to either repair the vehicle or purchase a new one. For FY 2013, eligible replacement vehicles for cars, SUVs and vans had to be MY 2013 – MY 2010, and for pick-up trucks MY 2013 – MY 2011. Vehicles that are replaced are required to be scrapped. In Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, and Montgomery Counties from December 12, 2007 through August 31, 2013 the program has retired and replaced 21,680 vehicles at a cost of $65,094,813. An additional 14,735 vehicles have had emissions-related repairs at a cost of $8,184,641, making a total expenditure of $73,279,454 on vehicle repair and retirement/replacement for the 5 counties for that period.25 Administration Resources HB 1, General Appropriations Bill, 82nd Texas Legislature 2011, Regular Session, continued funding for the program but at a reduced level. HB 1 appropriated $5.58 million for fiscal year (FY) 2012 and FY 2013 to continue this clean air strategy in the 16 participating counties. Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, and Montgomery were allocated approximately $2.5 million for FY 2012 and FY 2013. In FY 2013, H-GAC provided the following Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine services: Processed more than 4977 applications Issued nearly 3200 vouchers Repaired or replaced over 2750 vehicles in the HGB region, as follows: Vehicles Repaired: 2110 Vehicles Replaced: 657 Compared, for example, with the services provided in 2009 when over 17,000 applications were processed, nearly 11,000 vouchers issued and, over 9,000 vehicles repaired or replaced, the 2013 numbers reflect the reduced funding appropriated to the program for that year. Project Funding (Other Costs) This program is funded with a portion of the emission inspection fee and integral to maintaining low waiver rates of the inspection and maintenance program. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis There are two parts of the program, retired and replacement vehicles and repair assistance. 25 TCEQ 2014 Five-Year Regional Haze State Implementation Plan: Project Number 2013-013-SIP-NR 35 April 2014 DRAFT Retired and Replacement Vehicles Of the 657 vehicles replaced in 2013, approximately two thirds (438) were gasoline powered passenger cars and one third (219) gasoline powered passenger trucks. The average age of the replaced vehicles was 15 years (MY 1998) and that of the replacement vehicles 1 year (MY 2012). From MOVES emission factor runs conducted by ENVIRON using TCEQ Houston area input files, for passenger cars and trucks for the 2018 calendar year the mileage accumulation for a 15-year old vehicle was estimated to be 11,812 miles. The MY 1998 and MY 2012 emissions factors for passenger cars and passenger trucks used in this analysis shown in Tables A-6 and A-7 were also taken from the emission inventory runs prepared by TCEQ or using MOVES input files prepared by TCEQ. Summary emission reductions for the 2012 vehicle replacements and for five years of projects are shown in Tables A-8 and A-9, respectively. Repaired Vehicles Emissions benefits for vehicles repaired as a result of failing the Air Check Texas emissions test are measured using MOVES. Thus, emissions benefits for vehicles repaired with financial help from the ‘Drive A Clean Machine’ program are automatically accounted for in the MOVES runs, making it difficult to assess the specific impact of this element of the Drive a Clean Machine program. There may be some benefit in terms of long-term effectiveness from the fact that repairs must be carried out at a Recognized Repair Facility but this has not been assessed here. The MOVES runs assessing benefits from vehicle emissions testing provide data on NOx, VOC and CO emissions but not PM. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Given the lack of specific data re the emissions benefit of repairing vehicles under the program, it is only possible here to assess the cost effectiveness of the vehicle repair aspect of the Drive a Clean Machine program. Drive a Clean Machine replacement vouchers are made available as follows: $3000 for eligible cars (+SUVs and minivans) 3 years or newer $3000 for trucks 2 years of newer $3500 for hybrids 3 years or newer (Tier 2 Bin 3) In 2013, 9 of the 657 retired vehicles were replaced with a hybrid vehicle. Thus the total voucher cost for 2013 was $1,975,500. Administrative costs for the replacement element of the Drive A Clean Machine Program are estimated to be $479,900, making a total cost of $2,455,400 for this element of the program. However, the administration cost also includes repair assistance. A summary of the cost effectiveness per pollutant is shown in Table 2-20. Table 2-20. Cost Effectiveness (C/E) for NOx and PM over 5-year project life. Program cost $2,455,400 VOC (tons) 66.5 NOx (tons) 82.2 PM (tons) 0.675 VOC ($/ton) $40,000 36 NOx C/E ($/ton) $30,000 PM C/E ($/ton) $3,600,000 April 2014 DRAFT Other Benefits or Considerations The program’s repair assistance provides additional emissions benefits by reducing the waiver rate of vehicles failing the emissions test. Table 2-21. Air Check Texas Drive a Clean Machine Program Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Reductions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Part of the AirCheck program. Direct repair and replacement costs. 67 tons of VOC, 82 tons of NOx, and 0.7 tons of PM $30,000 per ton NOx and $3,600,000 per ton PM. Reduced I/M waiver rates and better functioning vehicles. 37 April 2014 DRAFT SECTION 3: VOLUNTARY EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM POTENTIAL H-GAC has suggested several programs for further review. Table 3-1 provides a summary list, short description, and approximate emission reduction potential suggested for the program. Each measure is review in greater detail in this section. The measures with the best potential, shown in green in Table 3-1, are programs that affect a large number of vehicles. These measures include incorporating fees (registration, insurance, or others) relative to miles traveled, reduced commuting through encouraging alternative work locations or combining trips to reduce parking costs or commute time with HOV lanes. Table 3-1. Voluntary Emission Control Measures. (Green – High Potential, Blue – Medium, Yellow – Low) Control Measure No. Description 1 Vehicle miles traveled – based registration fees and/or higher fees for high emission vehicles26 2 Encourage/Mandate Livable Centers 3 4 5 6 7 Reduction (tpy) Cost Program Summary VOC/NOx/PM2.5 Scope Effectiveness Based on results in U.S. including now146/456/25.6 Region Good completed demonstration projects in Minnesota, Oregon, Nevada, and Washington, a 1 cent per mile tax is assessed. Scenario: 5% of 4% increase in bike/walk 11/7/0.3 Region Medium between 2001 and 2010. The 5% is the scenario-based livable centers estimate for 2018 until a more precise value can be projected. Compressed Scenario: 20% of employees who work for 72/146/7 Region Good Workweek (CWW), one of the 71% of employers who offer Telework (Evaluated as compressed work weeks participate once compressed work weekly. week as currently implemented) Heavy-Duty Vehicle Other vehicle program initiatives in 0.01/0.02/0.0001 Per Truck Poor Programs addition to Clean Vehicles and Regional TERP programs. Cleaner Diesel Fuel Alternative diesel fuels. 20%/12%/20% % Per Gallon Poor Medium Encourage Off-Peak Move trips to off-peak. 6/30/2 10% Peak Medium Deliveries VMT Employee parking Build from the momentum developed in 183/66/11 Region Good cash-out program 2011-2012 using TMAs data to re-evaluate potential participation rates. 26 Higher fees for high emission vehicles not feasible under current registration fee structure; values provided are for a hypothetical VMT tax. 38 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure No. Description 8 Traffic Flow Improvements 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Program Summary Groups of these measures from Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) and Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). Includes infrastructure, signal timing, reversible lanes, and other measures. Temporary measures such as Ozone Action and SAFE Clear / Steer It Clear It also included. I/M for Three Basic program extended to three counties Additional HGB not already using the program. PM Counties reductions not currently modeled by EPA. Limitations on Idling of Voluntary idle reduction for off-road Heavy-Duty equipment similar to the Engine Off Construction program for on-road vehicles. Equipment Lawn and garden Exchange residential or other lawn and equipment exchange/ garden equipment for zero emitting recycling program electric equipment. Circulator service to Extend analysis done in 2011-2012 to major trip generators new, planned and potential shuttle services. Review potential bus fleet modernization. Increase HOV Apply 3+ requirement to highways Occupancy to 3 or currently requiring only 2+. Can apply to a More Per Vehicle particular facility or set of facilities if desired Managed Lanes to Apply method developed in 2011 – 2012 accommodate some to the project implemented or will be single occupant implemented in region. vehicles (HOT lane conversions) Clean Cities Technical The Clean Air Action outreach program. Coalition Heavy-duty Vehicle Outlined objectives and technology to be Inspection and used in this program. Maintenance Program 39 Reduction (tpy) VOC/NOx/PM2.5 5%/8%/4% 100/100/0 3/10/1 Scope % Per Project Chambers, Liberty, Waller Thousands of Off-Road Equipment 2/0.1/0.1 2,000 Pieces of Equipment Program yet to be Region detailed; expected May, 2014 426/138/33 Region Cost Effectiveness Poor to Medium Medium Good Poor Unknown Medium Expected benefits low because no VMT change, only small speed increase Outreach Effort Region Poor Region N/A Likely small benefit, but unquantified to date Region Poor April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 1: Vehicle Miles Traveled-based Registration Fees Since 1991 the Texas state gas tax has been 20.0 cents per gallon, and the federal gas tax has been 18.4 cents per gallon since 1993. The gas tax is not only stagnant, but depreciating in value due to inflation. Over the past 20 years revenues from the gasoline tax have also been declining as vehicles become more fuel efficient and people drive less. Thus, damage is being done to the infrastructure but the money needed to maintain and improve roadways is not being adequately generated. The fuel efficiency of new vehicles on America’s roadways is only going to improve. President Obama recently announced a new national fuel economy standard of 35.5 miles per gallon for new vehicles, effective 2016. While this new standard will help contribute towards cleaner air stemming from fewer emissions, and reduce dependence on oil, it negatively impacts transportation funding under the current gas tax funding system. This issue has received plenty of national attention as various plans to help reduce, and eventually eliminate, the national debt have been proposed. One of the plans, championed by Senator Tom Carper of Delaware and Senator George Voinovich of Ohio, proposes incrementally raising the federal gas tax to eventually reach 43.4 cents per gallon. The 25 cent tax hike is thought able to generate $200 billion in revenue over five years. Of that, over half would end up earmarked for transfer to the federal Highway Trust Fund. More recently, with Congress facing a major shortfall in transportation funding, a House bill introduced in December, 2013 would raise the federal gasoline tax by 15 cents per gallon to close the gap. In his press conference announcing the bill, Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) said the bill would raise the federal tax on gas to 33.4 cents per gallon and on diesel to 42.8 cents. As of right now, (March, 2014) states such as Delaware, New Hampshire, Minnesota, California, Oregon, and Washington all have active state legislative proposals to raise their state gas taxes. VMT Tax: Alternative to Gas Tax One widely proposed alternative to the gasoline tax is a “Vehicle Miles Traveled” (VMT) tax. Under this system, drivers pay a fee based on miles traveled rather than a tax on the amount of fuel used. The VMT tax concept can serve broader policy aims as well, by enabling policy makers to set variable fees in different network areas to reduce congestion during peak travel times, a critical and worsening issue in some metropolitan areas. While possessing many obvious implementation and feasibility barriers, the measure could offer highly cost effective emission reductions in the Houston region. VMT taxes have been evaluated in several U.S. areas. To date, this method of revenue generation has been implemented only for trucks (e.g. in Germany and, on a limited basis, Illinois)27. and only exists as a proposal for all vehicles (to replace or supplement the motor fuel tax, for example). It has been tested on a pilot basis in Oregon and 12 cities in the U.S. as part of a study conducted by the University of Iowa. A recent trial of VMT fees for 475 drivers 27 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ipd/revenue/road_pricing/defined/vmt.htm 40 April 2014 DRAFT in Atlanta found a three percent drop in mileage traveled, though researchers couldn't conclude that pricing had caused the drop. A trial of 500 cars in Seattle, Washington, reduced mileage 12 percent, though that included a very steep congestion charge of 50 cents a mile during evening rush hour28. A third trial in Portland, Oregon29, suggested that any VMT fee system will likely need some congestion pricing elements to succeed. For the study, some drivers paid a flat 1.2-cent mileage fee, some paid a congestion-based fee that ranged from .43 cents a mile at low periods to 10 cents during peak travel inside metropolitan Portland, and some (a control) paid the typical gas tax. Both VMT groups drove less than the control group. The flat group showed only a modest drop in VMT, however, while the congestion group decreased mileage by 22 percent at peak hours. The Oregon legislature approved, in 2013, a mileage-based tax system whereby 5,000 volunteer motorists will pay 1.5 cents per mile and have their state gas tax refunded. The program will start on July 1, 2015. As part of the Transportation Policy Research Program, the University of Iowa Public Policy Center is conducting a National Evaluation of a Mileage-Based Road User Charge. This four-year study involves placing an on-board computer or OBC into participants' vehicles. Data are then collected from both the technology and the participants. Participants have been selected from six locations nationwide and range in age, education, and background. The GPS located in the OBC in participants' vehicles keeps track of the number miles they travel and submits the information to the University of Iowa Public Policy Center to be processed and evaluated. The study involves two major issues: 1) testing the appropriateness of the technology and 2) looking at user accessibility and acceptability. Several countries in Europe have determined that a mileage-based fee is the best way to address congestion. The UK government concluded the full-scale implementation of distancebased fees by about 2015 and would be able to address the sustainability issues of economic growth and environmental protection. A feasibility study in 2004 concluded that a VMT tax could reduce urban traffic congestion by half.30 Analysis of a 10 percent increase in per mile in Houston (approximately 1 cent per mile) A tax on vehicle miles traveled can decrease vehicle miles traveled, but just how much is an open question. Statistical models suggest a significant impact. A recent simulated VMT tax of five cents a mile in the Sacramento area31 resulted in a 10 percent reduction in VMT. Another simulation in the Washington, D.C., area found that a tax of 10 cents per mile led to a 14 percent mileage decline32. The VMT simulations also showed a substantial drop in energy use 28 “Traffic Choices Study”, Puget Sound Regional Council, April, 2008 “Oregon’s Mileage Fee Concept and Road User Fee Pilot Program, Final Report”, Oregon Department of Transportation, 2007. 30 FHWA, Managing Travel Demand: Applying European Perspectives to U.S. Practice, FHWA-PL-06-015, May 2006. 31 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/processes/tools/toolbox/sacramento/sacramento_table2.cfm 32 “Spatial Development and Energy Consumption”, Elena Safirova, Sébastien Houde, and Winston Harrington. December, 2007. 29 41 April 2014 DRAFT — transportation energy, for sure, but also household energy, which is reduced through dense development encouraged by the VMT system. With current gasoline prices remaining above $3.00/gallon, a VMT tax of 10 cents per mile would represent nearly doubling the cost of driving33. Because doubling the cost of driving brings too many implementation and feasibility obstacles to be considered realistic, a charge of 1 cent a mile, similar to the pilot program in Oregon, is considered here. This represents an approximately 10 percent increase in the cost of driving. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for all of 2008 show that motor gasoline consumption declined by 3.3% in response to a 28% increase in gas costs34, implying a shortterm elasticity of .085 (a one percent increase in gas costs causes an 8.5% decrease in gasoline use and driving. For the months of August, September, and October, from 2007 to 2008, the percent gas price increases were 36%, 32%, and 12%. These price increases resulted in the largest monthly, year-over-year declines in U.S. vehicle miles traveled (VMT) since record keeping began in 1942. The VMT declines in 2008 over 2007 were 3.6% in July, 5.6% in August, 4.4% in September, and 3.5% in October. These indicate a change of between 4 – 8.5 percent VMT decrease in response to a one percent increase in gas costs. FHWA computed the short-run VMT price elasticities from 2007 to 2008 as -0.17 for the fourmonth period July to October, and about -0.12 (=3.5% VMT decline/30% price increase) for 2008 through October. They estimated short-run gasoline price elasticity for the year through October as only slightly larger at -0.13 (=4% gas decline/30% price increase, or a 7.5% VMT reduction for a 10% increase in costs). In the Oregon study the flat VMT tax of 1.2 cents/mile resulted in a 9 – 12 percent reduction in driving, including a 10% reduction in peak hour driving. This result is similar to what is suggested in recent studies of the elasticity of driving with respect to gasoline price. For example, a 2011 Yale study reports a .15 elasticity of driving with respect to gasoline driving (eg a 10% increase in gas prices results in a 15% reduction in driving, in the short term)35. The above suggests that a 10 percent increase in gas costs could result in 4 – 15 percent reduction in driving. For conservatism, we assume that a 10 percent increase in gas costs for Houstonions will result in the lowest of these, a 4% percent reduction in driving. Again though it should be noted that because both the Oregon pilot VMT tax study and the Yale empirical study show a similar response to price increases, it is reasonable to expect that a one Winston Harrington, Resources for the Future, December 2007, RFF DP 07-51 33 If the current required average fuel economy of 22.5 mpg is used in conjunction with $3.00 per gallon, driving costs the average motorist 13.3 cents per mile. In 2016 the average is required to rise to 35.5 mpg, which, if gasoline prices remain at $3.00, implies a cost of 8.45 cents/mile. 34 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/otps/innovation/issue1/impacts.htm “How Do Consumers Respond to Gasoline Price Shocks? Heterogeneity in Vehicle Choice and Driving Behavior”, Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University, Draft Version: July 1, 2011 Note: this study was updated in 2013. 35 42 April 2014 DRAFT cent per mile VMT tax in the cost of driving in Houston, levied through a VMT tax, could result in a 10% decrease in driving. Because the VMT tax applies to all trip purposes the reduction will apply to all passenger vehicle travel. Many other measures under consideration or being implemented in the region focus on work travel. In the case of a VMT tax, a 4% reduction in all passenger VMT is modeled as mentioned above. Emissions Affected and Benefit Daily total estimated VMT in 2018 is 178,317,40036, with 87% of that being from LDVs37, or 157,405,219 miles per day. A four percent reduction is equivalent to 6,296,209 miles per day. Table 3-2 below presents the results of a VMT tax achieving this VMT reduction in passenger travel. Table 3-2. Emission Factors and Results For 1 cent/mile VMT Tax In 2018 (Tpd). Pollutant Running Emissions (g/mile) Tons per day reduction VOC 0.058 0.4 NOx 0.18 1.25 CO 2.30 15.9 PM2.5 0.0095 0.07 CO2 369.5 2,562 Note that these estimates are only for VMT. In actuality this measure would likely reduce trips and associated start emissions to some extent. For conservatism these additional benefits are not included here. Cost and Cost Effectiveness This measure is most often considered as an alternative to the gas tax, and as a significant revenue generator sufficient to cover many transportation infrastructure repairs and improvements. Although there would be start-up costs, these are minor compared with the enormous revenues the measure could generate. For example, in the analysis presented above, the measure would generate gross revenue of over $10 million per day in the Houston region. Therefore the measure is both effective and carries with it a positive revenue per ton of pollution reduced. Some related measures are being explored that might have a more limited, but similar type of impact on driving as a VMT tax. First, Pay As You Drive or Pay How You Drive insurance is already offered by several automobile insurance companies. These programs have been shown to reduce the amount and even the nature of driving by its users. While this is a separate control measure, and largely deemed unacceptable in the Houston-Galveston region, increasing exposure and up-take by insurance companies might suggest this measure be revisited. California has also considered Pay at the Pump insurance options (therefore usage36 This is based on the file mvs10a_hgb_8county_2018_summer_weekday_cel_PM205add 37 Personal communication, email January 3, 2014 from H-GAC, to ENVIRON transmitting travel model output file tceq2_data.xlsx. 43 April 2014 DRAFT based) to more equitably insure motorists. Finally, another form of usage-fees has been tested in the Netherlands under the name, Rush Hour Avoidance. In this case, drivers are paid to STAY OFF key congested road during the most congested periods. This reduces volumes and delay, and therefore, emissions. The price elasticity of demand with respect to gas prices is an important factor in projecting the impact of usage-based fees on traffic volumes (and therefore emissions). A seminal metaanalysis by the British researchers Goodwin, Dargay and Hanly, conclude that a 10% increase (sustained) in gas price would reduce traffic volumes by 1% within one year and 3% in five years’ time. The elasticity of fuel consumption (demand) with respect to price is higher (2.5% short term and 6% longer term) than that of traffic volumes is due to changes in how people use their cars as a result of rising gas prices. Improvements in technology, driving habits and reduced congestion makes driving more efficient and, in the longer run, people will choose to own fewer vehicles.38 38 Phil Goodwin, Joyce Dargay and Mark Hanly, “Review of Income and Price Elasticity in the Demand for Road Traffic,” Transport Reviews, 24(3), 2004. 44 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 2: Livable Centers The goal of H-GAC's Livable Centers Program is to help create walkable, mixed-use places that provide multi-modal transportation options, improve environmental quality, and promote economic development. This is a continuation of the program started in 2008. The program is formally included in the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan, which presents a 3C's approach to development strategy: Centers, Connects and Context. This strategy encourages transit, pedestrian and bicycle options. The RTP allots: $68 Million for livable centers projects between 2008-2011 $20 million for additional support for long-range livable centers projects $274 million in bicycle and pedestrian improvements The 2040 RTP is under development and will be finalized in fall, 2014. H-GAC has a vibrant Livable Centers program which has conducted numerous studies for specific areas around the region, including: Downtown/EaDo Livable Centers Study Galveston Livable Centers Study Harris County-Airline Improvement District Livable Centers Study Hempstead Livable Centers Study Independence Heights-Northline City of League City Livable Centers Study NASA Area Management District Livable Centers Study Near Northwest Livable Centers Study Washington Avenue Study Copies of any of these and the following studies can be obtained from http://www.hgac.com/community/livablecenters/planningstudies/. A review of all but the last two of these studies reveals that, with the exception of the Galveston Study, they do not contain quickly quantifiable features with which to model the mode change, VMT, and trip effects. The Galveston study went so far as to calculate VMT and trip changes, including provision of the assumptions used, and then went on to estimate air quality effects, using what appear to be MOBILE6 emission factors. The remaining studies did not do this. With adequate time (likely approximately 4 – 6 hours per study) inputs to the Livable Center calculator could be extracted from each study. These inputs include acreage, access variables, density variables, trip lengths, and the like. It is recommended that H-GAC consider applying this method to one or two selected studies, in order to obtain mode shift, VMT and trip reductions for one or more of the proposed centers/center design features. 45 April 2014 DRAFT Livable Centers Studies Conducted 2008 - 2010 In the 2008-2011 TIP, the Transportation Policy Council committed $1.5 million to fund Livable Center studies in the region, including: East End Energy Corridor Fourth Ward City of Houston/Midtown Northside City of Tomball Upper Kirby Livable Centers Studies from other organizations include: City of Baytown Livable Centers Study Upper Kirby Mobility Improvement Plan Uptown Houston Pedestrian/Transit Master Plan Some implementation project examples include the City of Waller, the Energy Corridor, and the Midtown and Northside districts. The effects of livable centers on travel activity are to encourage additional bicycle and walking trips, and to generally lower the use of single occupant vehicle travel. Some increases in carpooling and transit are also possible. The measures can replace both commute and noncommute trips with a non-polluting alternative such as additional bicycle and pedestrian trips substituting for SOV trips. In addition they are expressions of land use decisions that support sustainability and livability and a culture that relies less upon single occupant vehicles. Public Acceptance Because the approach to livable centers involves urban planning and land use, it may either be viewed positively or negatively depending upon how the approaches are implemented and who the property owners are. The studies conducted to date seemed to indicate broad popular support for the concepts, which improve access and livability as well as a greater “sense of place”. Analysis Because the effects of livable centers are to increase the use of alternative modes, it is challenging to analyze the benefits of livable centers without double counting the effects of other stand-alone measures such as bicycle/pedestrian programs. The analysis of bicycle and pedestrian programs utilized survey data on changes in bicycle and pedestrian use between 2001 and 2010 and applied the 4% new mode share in bicycle and 46 April 2014 DRAFT pedestrian modes to the 2018 population to estimate a 2018 mode share, and then scaled this value down based on the proportion of people who are exposed to Commute Solutions messaging at their workplaces. Growth in use of these modes will be a natural outcome of livable center implementation. However attributing the growth to livable centers would require extensive data collection including: 1. The number of people living and/or working in livable centers; 2. Their current and previous modes of travel for work and non-work trips; and 3. The percentage of bicycle/pedestrian mode share of livable center “people” compared with the general population Until such time as these data could be collected in surveys, a quantitative air pollutant benefits estimate for livable centers is not possible without either double counting the bicycle/pedestrian benefits enumerated under that measure or subtracting benefits estimated using the H-GAC Livable Center Benefits Calculator from the total bicycle/pedestrian benefits. However in order to accomplish this latter method, detailed data on current and expected implementation projects would need to be developed. It is likely that a large or even majority portion of bicycle pedestrian benefits for air quality results from livable centers. The discussion below assumes all bicycle and pedestrian benefits accruing from the surveyed increase in those modes between 2000 and 2010 (4% after adjustment for non-drivers such as people under 15) are attributed to livable centers. Emissions Affected The emissions affected by Livable Centers are all short trips currently made by passenger vehicles. This includes both work and non-work related trips. Total daily passenger vehicle emissions in 2018 are 47.21 tpd of NOx, 40.44 tpd of VOC, 1.43 tpd of PM2.5, 65,333 tpd of CO2, and 515.7 tpd of CO. To calculate the emission benefits below we estimated the total number of additional individuals who would use bicycle or pedestrian modes as 690,983. We assumed five percent used these non-motorized modes for trips of one mile (each way) because they were living in livable center developments. We assumed they reduced start emissions for one leg of the trip (as a lower benefits estimate), resulting in the benefits below. Table 3-3. Emission Factors and Results for Livable Centers in 2018 (Tpd). Pollutant Running Emissions (g/mile) Start Emissions (g/start) Emission Reduction (tpd) VOC 0.058 0.66 0.02 NOx 0.18 0.54 0.03 47 CO 2.07 5.7 0.38 PM2.5 0.0095 0.007 0.0008 CO2 369.5 59.8 30.4 April 2014 DRAFT Emission benefits from Livable Centers include increased alternative mode use, especially additional walking and bicycling trips. Part of this is due to the ability to take shorter trips, as individuals become more able to have their residences and workplaces more proximate. As mentioned earlier, at this time it is not recommended to credit alternative mode use that is due to Livable Centers specifically. Progress in implementation by 2018 is uncertain, and there is the issue of overlap of alternative mode use with other programs such as bikeways, Commute Solutions and Transit service increases. There are certainly not yet any stand-alone livable centers that one could evaluate. For example, implemented projects at this time include a few sidewalks, a butterfly garden, and the likely construction of a convention center hotel, now known to be a Marriot project39. Other examples are things like a sewage line to accommodate more residents, or the construction of water features. Livable Centers staff keeps a running list of projects under implementation that meet Livable Center goals or which are elements of livable center studies, such as permits being granted to encourage more mixed use development, or plans to include bikeways in an upcoming city plan. Currently implemented projects at this time include some infrastructure and some progress toward implementing recommendations contained in the Livable Center Studies. Clearly these types of projects do not lend themselves to analysis. One possibility for quantitative evaluation in the future would be to evaluate changes in planned density, and jobs/housing mixes for the future. A possible methodology could be developed that utilizes GIS records to evaluate changes in the number of residents and workers in the areas. There are two possible scenarios: (1) development along regular lines leading to continuation of current mode shares; and (2) development along livable center lines leading to some additional changes in mode that would not have occurred otherwise. The other approach discussed earlier would be to conduct a deeper review of one or more individual studies to extract the variables relevant to an analysis. These include density, acreage, access and similar inputs. 39 Personal Communication via phone call, Kelly Porter of Livable Centers, Community and Environmental Planning Department of H-GAC on March 6, 2014. 48 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 3: Compressed Work Weeks Compressed Workweek (CWW) are being implemented by employers throughout the region, including Clean Air Champions, some of whom are utilizing NuRide for tracking. Description Compressed work weeks are an effective way to reduce emissions and are popular with both employees and employers. Typical compressed work weeks include either a 4/40 (work 4 ten hour days per week with a three-day weekend) or 9/80 (work an average of 9 hours daily with a third weekend day every other week). Since Houston has so many hospitals, the use of 3/36 scheduled used extensively by hospitals, fire, and other 24/7 operations is also relevant. Compressed work weeks remove work trips as well as change the timing of travel, which can reduce peak period congestion. The 2009 General Appropriations Act (Tex. SB. 1, Art. 1, Rider 15) directed the Texas Comptroller’s office to conduct a study on the establishment of a four-day, 40-hour workweek for state employees. The report findings, entitled “Analysis of Alternative Work Schedules”, published in August, 2010, can be found online40. In the remainder of this section this report is referred to as the comptroller’s report. Implementation Feasibility Compressed work weeks are widely implemented in the Houston region, with between 44 and 76 percent of surveyed area employer categories offering them. Participating employees appreciate the extra day off, as well as the fuel and time cost savings achieved through participation. Principal barriers to implementation are employment sectors or responsibilities that do not lend themselves to days off, such as teachers. Other responsibilities, such as customer service, or executive and managerial, cannot participate regularly. Public Acceptance Certainly a mandatory approach could engender problems with firms. However a voluntary approach is more typically how compressed work weeks are implemented, and that may provide a benefit to employees. NuRide Measured Compressed Work Week Benefits NuRide began tracking participation in compressed work weeks in 2010, when they recorded 1,340 trips reduced through the program. In 2013 they recorded 9,116 reduced trips and 192,977 miles reduced, which resulted in annual emission reductions of 0.04 tons NOx, 0.02 tons VOC, 0.002 tons PM2.5 0.44 tons CO, and 79.1 tons of CO2. Because only a small proportion of compressed work week participants also use NuRide to track their trips, it is important to estimate compressed work weeks on a regional basis. 40 http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/altschedule 49 April 2014 DRAFT Analysis of Emissions Benefit For Regional Compressed Work Weeks In order to estimate the participation rates from among the companies that offer this program, an estimate must be made about the percentage of employees that can participate. Not all employees at companies that offer compressed work weeks can participate, if their job requirements do not support participation. Appendix D of the Comptroller report shows that of the companies offering compressed work weeks, most offer them to less than 25% of employees (85%) and a few offer it to more than 25% of their employees (15%). The analysis presented here assumes 20% of employees working for companies that offer this program participate in a 4/40 work-week. According to the 2012 conformity determination on the 2035 RTP41, Table 3 total employment in the Houston-Galveston Brazoria nonattainment region in 2018 is projected to be 3,183,000. According to 2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics for the Houston region42, 75% of employees work for private companies; 14% for government agencies; and 11% for educational institutions. A weighted average of compressed work week offerings therefore indicates 71% of area employees work for companies that offer compressed work weeks, or 2,259,930 employees. Based on the 20% participation rate for these employees, we estimate that 451,986 employees could potentially participate once per week in a 4/40 program under current implementation policies. A more complex scenario could be developed that assumes various values for 4/40, 9/80, and 3/36 workers. Since the analysis is hypothetical and uses a smaller value than suggested by the survey data regarding the percentage participation, the approach provides a reasonable estimate of the possible benefits of compressed work weeks. Emissions Affected and Benefit There are three potential sources of emission reductions for this measure. The reduced trips and VMT associated with the extra day off reduce both start and running emissions. Additionally, travel speeds may be increased by shifting travel from peak to off-peak periods. The analysis assumes the measure is implemented as a 4/40 work-week, although as noted earlier many employees participate on a different schedule. The 451,986 participating employees are potentially shifting travel during morning and evening peak periods to off-peak hours because their work days are now 10 hours instead of 8. Given the long length of the peak period in the Houston region, and the resulting difficulty of shifting both the morning and evening commute from peak to off-peak periods, it could be assumed that one leg of the commute normally occurring during peak periods by compressed work week participants is now occurring during off-peak periods. Or 451,986 (participating employees) * 13.3 (work trip length – miles) * 4 (days per week where travel is shifted)/7 (number of days per week) = 3,435,094 miles per average day. 41 http://www.h-gac.com/taq/airquality_model/conformity/2012/default.aspx. Table 3 contains population and employment projects by year, county, and regionally. 42 http://www.bls.gov/ro3/fax_9657.pdf 50 April 2014 DRAFT Emission changes resulting from shifting these miles were not evaluated. Speed-based factors for PM2.5 are not available at this time (March 12, 2014) Trip-based portion of emission reduction The 451,986 participants reduce two work trips per week (one to and one from the workplace). This reduction is discounted by 30% to account for additional trips made for errands from home that would have been made on the way to or from the workplace. Average daily trips reduced = 451,986 * 2/5 *0.7 = 126,556 trips per average workday day. TEFAUTO: TLA: Average passenger vehicle start emission factor (NOx , VOC, or CO) (grams/trip) Resulting reductions are detailed in Table A-13. Average auto trip length after implementation (miles) VMT based portion of emission reduction TLB: Average auto trip length before implementation (miles) Resulting in reductions detailed in Table A-13. VMTA: Vehicle trips after implementation VMTB: Change in VMT as a result of implementation Reductions from the 600,508,220 miles per year and 46,192,940 trips per year total 72 tons of VOC; 146.5 tons of NOx; 6.6 tons of PM2.5 and 247,412 tons of CO2. Cost Effectiveness Compressed work weeks are a component of the Commute Solutions program, which costs $2.5 million per year. It is assumed that the compressed work week portion of the program, conducted as part of general employer outreach for carpooling and telecommuting as well, is 30 percent of program costs, or $833,000 annually (averaging $2,282/day). The sum of daily VOC + NOx reduced by compressed work weeks is 0.6 tpd, yielding an estimated cost effectiveness of $3,803/ton reduced. 51 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 4: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Programs Heavy-duty vehicle programs could include a range of options to implement new or proven technologies through a variety of federal grants and supplemental funding approaches. Examples of programs are those funded under the federal Diesel Emission Reduction Act (DERA), EPAʼs Innovative Technologies Grants and other competitive grant processes. Two example projects are the Houston Zero Emission Delivery Vehicle Deployment43 where federal Department of Energy (DOE) funding has been provided with in-kind contractor matching funds to demonstrate effectiveness of all-electric delivery vehicles to perform at the same level of operation as similarly sized diesel delivery vehicles while reducing vehicle emission and petroleum consumption. The two projects seek to replace 50 medium and heavyduty delivery vehicles with zero emission versions. Other funding sources may be identified, such as through supplemental environmental programs or in partnership with fleet owners. Administration Resources Based on other heavy-duty vehicles programs including the current TERP, drayage loan, and Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles programs, administration costs are expected to be 3 to 6% of the funding levels. Administration costs are incorporated into the overall program funding and are required to fund staff to verify the projects are completed, and money spent appropriately. Project Funding (Other Costs) The recent DOE projects however show that additional emission reductions projects can still be identified. The DOE share for zero emission trucks is nearly $6,000,000 while the contractor share is $7,000,000 with H-GAC identified as the lead agency to verify the program’s progress. The contractor is likely to see a significant fuel savings perhaps equal to their cost. Because of the success of TERP and Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles programs, additional heavy-duty programs have an example of how to implement such programs, but the current programs have also identified many of the most willing participants and cost effective projects. The current programs have often funded the highest use and largest on-road and off-road vehicles. The DOE project indicates that additional fleets may still be identified by focusing on other types of fleets than those identified by TERP and Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis The expected emissions reductions will depend upon the program funding and project specifics including the base engine and activity. 43 http://www4.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/resources/merit-review/sites/default/files/vss116_smith_2013_o.pdf and Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Electric Hybrid Truck Demonstration (http://www4.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/resources/meritreview/sites/default/files/vss117_smith_2013_o.pdf) 52 April 2014 DRAFT For the DOE demonstration project, replacing a 2014 diesel model with a zero emissions truck results in less than optimal cost effectiveness because new diesel trucks are low emissions. Future projects may not require the same level of funding if it can be proved that the energy costs are substantially lower. To estimate emissions reductions, we used as an example UPS trucks averaging about 20,000 – 25,000 miles per year44, and combined with the emission rates for late model medium heavyduty trucks shown in Table A-13. The 10-year emission rate of a new diesel truck is estimated at 0.1 tons of VOC and CO, 0.2 tons NOx, and 0.005 tons PM2.5 per truck. Replacing older vehicles with higher emission rates results in greater emission reductions, and those are the types of projects funded by TERP and Clean Cities/Clean Vehicles. Costs and Cost Effectiveness The NOx reductions cost effectiveness of the TERP programs for the projects started from 2008 – 2013 has been about $9,000 per ton reduced with on-road vehicle projects more expensive than off-road projects to date. As this program continues, it is possible that projects will become more expensive as the most cost effective projects have been identified. The total cost of the DOE zero emission replacement divided by the emission reduction results in a cost effectiveness of over $600,000 per NOx-only ton reduced and $30 million per PM-only ton reduced using the entire DOE cost. Ultimately the cost of the program will be dictated by the funding sources identified and level of participation. For many grants (especially federal grants), the participants need to partner with agencies to apply for grants. The intention of these DOE programs was not to provide cost effective emission reduction, but to demonstrate technologies that may be employed without as much or any subsidy in the future. Other Benefits or Considerations Benefits for heavy-duty programs are usually reduction in all pollutants including VOC, CO, NOx, and PM. In addition, using alternative fuels or zero-emission electric power, fuel cost savings may be realized that can dramatically reduce the cost and cost effectiveness. Table 3-4 provides a summary of the potential for other Heavy-Duty vehicle projects. Table 3-4. Other Heavy-Duty Vehicle Programs Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or 44 Estimate Typically 3 – 6% cost for project oversight. Direct funding of vehicles or fuel facilities may be required. Emission benefits depend on fleet specifics. TERP average costs have been $9,000 per ton of NOx reduced. And PM costs about $90,000 to $360,000 per PM2.5 reduced. Most pollutant emissions are reduced, and some heavy-duty programs can reduce http://www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/fleettest/pdfs/31227.pdf 53 April 2014 DRAFT Considerations fuel costs depending upon the alternatives. 54 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 5: Cleaner Diesel Fuel This measure consists of changing a portion of the diesel-fueled fleet from using Texas Low Emission Diesel fuel (TxLED) to cleaner diesel fuels such as cetane additive enhanced (CAE) or Fischer-Tropsch (FT, also known as gas-to-liquid fuel, GTL) diesel fuel. Currently, the availability of CAE and FT diesel suppliers is limited, but a fuel program could be implemented as a local demonstration project on specific heavy-duty truck fleets or a centrally-fueled fleet such as refuse trucks. Switching a fraction of the diesel-fueled fleet to a cleaner alternative would yield PM and NOx reductions. It has been demonstrated that higher cetane numbered diesel fuel use result in lower NOx and PM emissions. FT and CAE fuels are examples of diesel-fuel alternatives with higher cetane numbers. TxLED fuel currently sold in Texas has a minimum cetane number of 48 and a maximum aromatic hydrocarbons allowance of 10% by volume. CAE diesel would consist of TxLED that is supplemented with additives, producing a cetane number increase of 5 points with no changes in other parameters from TxLED fuel. Typical FT fuel has a cetane number of 74 and an aromatic content of 0.1 percent.45 Other alternative diesel fuels may be available, including diesel blends with ethanol, ethers (for example diethyl ether,46 often used to assist in cold-starting diesel engines), diesel/water emulsions (such as PuriNOx™), and hydrogenationderived renewable diesel (HDRD). The emission reductions potential for these fuels is similar to that of FT fuel. Each alternative diesel fuel has advantages and limitations. For instance, large-scale production of FT fuels is currently still in the research and development stage by several oil companies (EPA, 2002a; US DOE, 2013) so production is currently scarce and costly in the United States. For CAE fuels, cetane additives are not widely available; therefore distribution issues may limit the use of cetane enhancers. One disadvantage of diesel/water emulsion fuel is that it can incur a fuel economy penalty of ten to fifteen percent depending on the engine and application. In addition, fuel/water emulsions are high maintenance fuels in that they should not be left standing beyond a certain amount of time due to the risk of separation of the emulsified components (ARB, 2004). On the other hand, PuriNOx™ fuel/water emulsion summer grade diesel is one of few alternative fuels verified by EPA and California’s Air Resources Board (ARB). Verification (by either EPA or ARB) provides sufficient proof to EPA of the technology’s capability to achieve specific emission reductions. Administration Resources Because the program is not ongoing, administrative burdens have not been considered. 45 Clark et al., 1999 Clark, N., M. Gautam, D. Lydons, C. Atkinson, and W. Xie, 1999. “On-Road Use of Fischer-Tropsch Diesel Blends”, SAE Technical Paper Series, 1999-01-2251, Washington D.C., April 1999. 46 Bailey et al. 1997 Bailey, B., J. Eberhardt, S. Goguen, and J. Erwin, 1997. “Diethyl Ether as a Renewable Diesel Fuel,” Society of Automotive Engineers, Paper no. 972978. 55 April 2014 DRAFT Project Funding (Other Costs) The cost of FT fuel can exceed the cost of standard diesel by up to $0.25 per gallon (CEC, 2003). Advances in FT technology and economies of scale may reduce the price of these fuels in the future. In other areas (such as California), FT fuels are sold as neat fuel or a blend to produce reformulated diesel fuel. (CEC, 2003) Costs widely vary and given recent trends of low natural gas costs, the feedstock for FT fuels, may reduce clean diesel costs. Estimates from vendors indicate that cetane additives that increase cetane levels by 5 points would cost approximately $0.08 per gallon (ENVIRON, 2013c). EPA’s National Clean Diesel Funding Assistance Program (http://www.epa.gov/diesel/prgnational.htm) grants extended funding for cleaner fuel use resulting from retrofit/repower/replacement projects. The program covers the cost differential between the cleaner fuel and conventional diesel fuel if that cleaner fuel is used in combination, and on the same vehicle, with a new eligible verified control technology retrofit, or an eligible certified engine repower, or an eligible certified vehicle replacement funded through this program. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Table 3-5 demonstrates that alternative diesel fuel formulations can reduce tailpipe NOx emissions by as much as 20% from the vehicles using the cleaner fuel. The costs would be accrued for each gallon consumed; therefore the cost effectiveness shown is the same whether considered over the life of the project or each year of its use. Table 3-5. Emissions Reductions and Cost-effectiveness of Alternative Fuels. Fuel Fischer-Tropsch FT or GTL Diesel TxLED with Cetane Additive Enhanced (CAE) Lubrizol’s PuriNOx Description Stand-alone diesel or diesel blend from Fischer-Tropsch process Additives to available diesel fuel Diesel/water emulsion – registered and verified by EPA (summer grade) and verified by ARB % Reduction in Tailpipe PM Emissions 201 % Reduction in Tailpipe NOx Emissions 121 Reduced emission not quantified 583 1.32 143 1 Clark et al, 1999 2003 3 EPA, 2002b 2 EPA, The emission reduction from using cleaner diesel fuels will be the emission reduction fraction applied to base emission rates for vehicles. As fleets replace vehicles with cleaner engines, the benefits of clean diesel fuels decrease. 56 April 2014 DRAFT For calendar year 2018, emissions from diesel vehicles were estimated to be 44.90 tons of NOx, 1.86 tons of PM, and 24,705 tons of CO2 for 12.7 million miles of driving. Converting the CO2 to fuel consumption (using the molecular weight ratio of 44 CO2 to 13.8 for fuel carbon and a fuel density of 7.05 pounds per gallon), the average fuel consumption rate was 5.8 miles/gallon for all diesel vehicles. Also we estimated the emissions rates for NOx at 18.5 grams per gallon and PM at 0.8 grams/gallon. The emission reduction for FT fuels then would be 2.2 grams NOx per gallon (18.5 x 12%) and 0.16 grams PM per gallon of FT fuel used. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Cost for the alternatives available is usually high compared with the benefits as shown in Table 3-5, however as natural gas (the feedstock for FT diesel fuel) prices come down in relation to oil prices, FT fuels become more viable alternatives with less cost disadvantage. Using the emission results for FT fuels with a $0.25 per gallon cost and the per gallon mass emissions benefit, the cost effectiveness is $100,000 per ton of NOx reduced and $1.4 million per ton of PM reduced. Cetane enhancer benefits are much lower, and so will have higher $ per ton benefits. Other Benefits or Considerations Usually all emission are reduced with these fuels. The FT fuel and cetane enhancer fuel additives can have benefits for the vehicle operator in better and more responsive operation. Table 3-6. Cleaner Diesel Fuel Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Unknown Direct fuel cost per gallon increase. Fractional reduction in emissions, 20 – 50% PM; 1 – 14% NOx. $100,000 per NOx ton and $1.4 million per PM ton reduced. May result in improved engine operation. 57 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 6: Encourage Off-Peak Deliveries Heavy-duty vehicle emissions on a per-mile basis are higher during weekday peak traffic hours compared to overnight or midday periods. During peak hours of 7-9 AM and 4-7 PM, overall traffic speed is slower and includes more stop and go pattern driving. The slower average speeds results in higher emission factors of PM2.5 and NOx for all vehicles including heavy-duty trucks. To mitigate the impact of higher heavy-duty vehicle emissions during peak travel times, off-peak deliveries and other freight movements might be scheduled or otherwise encouraged to be accomplished during periods of less traffic congestion. Types of heavy-duty vehicles that this would affect are short-haul trucks (heavy-duty, locally-operating) and light commercial trucks. Administration Resources H-GAC staff would administer the program gathering together suppliers and owners, such as restaurants, stores, and other retail outlets, to plan for off-peak deliveries. Project Funding (Other Costs) An incentive has yet to be determined to encourage a change in behavior. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Deliveries are primarily made by short-haul single-unit and combination trucks, and some light commercial vehicles. How much travel can be persuaded to be moved from peak periods depends upon the willingness of companies to provide incentives to their employees. The travel affected by the measure will depend upon the incentive to reorganize the schedules and may require incentives to employees to shift their schedules. The benefits would be less time in transit, perhaps lower fuel consumption, and emissions reductions. The primary effect of congestion is to reduce the average speed of travel during peak periods due to more stop and go driving, which increases NOx by about 10% over off-peak periods as shown in Figure 2-4. Not all deliveries can be made during off-peak periods, so only a fraction of the emissions can be affected. The total light commercial and short-haul single-unit and combination trucks are expected to emit approximately 0.9 tpd PM2.5, 30.0 tpd NOx, and 7.1 tpd VOC in the 8-county area. Of this perhaps 10% of the travel could be shifted to off-peak periods, resulting reducing emission rates by 10%, so overall 0.09 tpd PM2.5, 0.30 tpd NOx and 0.07 tpd VOC could be realized. 58 April 2014 DRAFT Figure 2-4. NOx Emission Rates for Delivery Vehicles as a Function of Hour of Day for a Weekday. Figure 2-5. PM2.5 Emission Rates for Delivery Vehicles as a Function of Hour of Day for a Weekday. 59 April 2014 DRAFT Emissions Affected The emissions affected by this measure are likely limited to delivery trucks that can reschedule their drop-off and pick-up trips. For this measure, this was determined for the MOVES vehicle types of light commercial (LC), single-unit short-haul (SUSh), and combination gasoline and diesel short-haul trucks (CShT). These vehicles are responsible for 0.9 tpd of PM2.5, 7.1 tpd of VOC and 30.0 tpd of NOx emissions. Emissions Benefit The emissions benefits derive from shifting trips from peak periods when emission factors are relatively high to off-peak when they are lower. Table 3-7 summarizes the change in the average emission factors during (1) peak period, 7-9 AM and 4-7 PM, and (2) off-peak periods (midday and overnight). The emission factors of NOx, VOC, and PM 2.5 decrease on average by 4%, 10%, and 10%, respectively, if trips are moved to an off-peak period. Table 3-7. Average Delivery TruckA Emission Factors during Peak Period (7-9AM and 4-7PM) and Off-Peak Period (midday 9AM-4PM and overnight 7PM to 7AM). Pollutant NOx VOC PM2.5 Peak EF (g/mi) 1.4 0.18 0.058 Off-Peak EF (g/mi) 1.3 0.16 0.052 Percent Change in EF from Peak to Off-Peak -4% -10% -10% A Average Delivery Truck includes Light Commercial Trucks, Single Unit Short-haul Trucks, and Combination Unit Long-haul Trucks. The precise amount of delivery truck VMT that could be moved from peak to off-peak periods is unknown, but if 10% of these trips could be shifted then the overall benefit would be 0.12 tpd NOx, 0.071 tpd VOC, and 0.009 tpd PM2.5. Expressed as a percent the on-road emissions benefits from this measure would be 0.4%, 1%, and 1%, for NOx, VOC, and PM2.5, respectively. Costs and Cost Effectiveness The cost of this measure is unknown because it is difficult to determine if an incentive is required to encourage companies and drivers to use off-peak conditions to complete their deliveries. Other Benefits or Considerations This approach may cause difficulty because deliveries may need to occur outside of normal business hours. There may be a cost to the supplier or receiver to pay for extra staff or an incentive to work non-normal business hours. Additional noise in areas where people reside could also be an issue. 60 April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-8. Encourage Off-Peak Deliveries Off-Peak Delivery Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Unknown Incentives for shippers and customers. 30 tpy NOx and 2 tpy for PM for a 10% Change in peak VMT of these vehicles. Unknown. Travel time and ease of parking for deliveries and less traffic congestion. 61 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 7: Parking Cash Out Program Parking costs in the Houston region are free or nearly free for many commuters, providing an unseen subsidy for driving alone. While some people who drive alone would do so whether or not they had to pay for parking, others would be willing to forgo driving alone if they weren’t granted the free spaces. A recent report on parking costs and subsidies47 presented seven case studies and a statistical model suggesting that when compared with driver paid parking, employer-paid parking increases driving to work by about 33 percent. An obvious corollary implication is that 33 percent of SOV commuters who get free parking would be willing to use alternate modes. This is the type of reasoning that led, in the early 1990s, to a parking cash out law in California. California’s parking cash out law applies to employers in air quality nonattainment areas with more than 50 employees who provide subsidized parking to their employees (covering all or part of the parking cost paid by the employer). In the California law, employers had to (1) lease the parking spots they provided to the employees and (2) be able to change to the terms of their parent lease in a way that avoided any financial penalty of paying the employee the amount they were previously paying as a subsidy for the parking. Generally this simply meant that if a lease term already in effect when the law became effective in 1992 was not flexible enough to change, an otherwise eligible employer was not subject to the law until the lease term was over and they successfully negotiated a new lease that allowed them to join the parking cash out program. Although this is the model California followed, other states are not precluded from implementing it differently, For example instead of a law, employers could participate voluntarily, as some already do in Houston and other areas around the U.S., often dating back to the Best Workplaces Program. If an employer participates voluntarily they do not necessarily have to lease the parking supply. In any area where parking demand is high, even owned parking could potentially be sold to other users. This is being proposed in nearby Austin, where parking supply for downtown city government workers has become too tight. After a successful pilot program in July – October, 2012, the City of Austin is proposing to offer city employees a $100 month payment not to park downtown in order to ease congestion and parking supply. Houston is potentially a perfect area in which to significantly expand parking cash out. Two employers are currently known to offer it in an explicit form, and many of the Commute Champions employers are offering an implicit version of it. However there is no regional program. It is cost neutral to implement, it’s perceived favorably by employees, it’s environmentally beneficial, it can reduce congestion, and can save on frustration, gas costs, and commute times. In Houston, paid parking is only common in a few locations like Central Houston and a few large employment centers, like the Texas Medical Center. Commuters are most likely to pay all or 47 Dr. Don Shoup, “Parking Cash Out” American Planning Association Report 532 62 April 2014 DRAFT part of the cost of parking in the Houston CBD. Interestingly, downtown Houston also has the lowest SOV commute rate in the region (48%). The norm in the rest of the region is 82%. 48According to parking inventories from 2005, there are almost 75,000 structured parking spaces in downtown Houston and another 27,000 spaces in surface lots. In 2003, the average daily price of parking in downtown Houston was $8.00, with monthly unreserved spaces averaging $165.00 and reserved spaces averaging $245.00 per month. Since October, 2011, there are also 7,000 on-street metered spaces that allow residents, workers and visitors to pay for parking at all of the spaces with their mobile phones 49. In 2012-13, H-GAC requested parking information from local Transportation Management Associations (i.e. availability of free employee parking, the number of employees, the average monthly cost of parking, and the amount of parking supply that was unutilized). The results of this data indicate that about 75 percent of employees in the Houston region do receive free or subsidized parking from their employers and are therefore potential participants in a parking cash-out program. Follow up emails were sent to the same personnel by the Environ Team in late February, 2014 and it appears that the surveys have not been expanded upon since 2012. In addition, only two companies currently offer a formal parking cash-out program to employees, based on Best Workplaces data50. However, many companies have long offered other incentives to reduce employee travel, such as transit and vanpool subsidies, alternative work schedules, carpool incentives and travel allowances. The downtown Houston survey conducted in 2009 found that 36% of respondents indicated their employer provides free parking for them at their work site51. This value is more robust than the 75% because of the formal nature of the survey. It is much smaller because it focuses on a part of Houston where parking is very tight, and only on free parking. The analysis below uses this 36% value as the high end potential population of employees that could be offered parking cash-out. We also restrict potential parking cash-out participants to those who are currently SOV users most of the time. Regionally 82% of commuters rely on driving alone to get to work. This value is similar for many parts of the region. For example, as shown in Table 2-3 the East End SOV percentage is 68 percent; the energy corridor is 82 %, and the Houston MSA is 79.2%. The downtown Houston area differs: it is only 48% there. This variation is taken into account in the analysis. 48 It is important to note how well this difference corresponds with the national finding that there is about a 35% decrease in SOV use among commuters who have to pay for parking. Later in the analysis we apply 50% of this difference to provide an estimate of the potential benefits of parking cash out programs. 49 www.houstonparking.org 50 These companies are Porter and Hedges, LLP and the UT Health Science Center of Houston. 51 51 http://downtownhouston.org/site_media/uploads/attachments/2010-04-22/9A2009_Downtown_Houston_Commute_Survey_Report.pdf conducted by Central Houston, Inc. (CHI) 63 April 2014 DRAFT The proportion of parking that is most readily applicable to parking cash out as defined in the California law (leased by employer and unbundled from the office portion of the lease) ranges from 4% – 7%. The previously referenced Shoup APA document shows one study with 4% and provides a national estimate of 7%. Other researchers have used a 5 percent rate52 Below we estimate emission benefits for two scenarios. The first uses the lower of the Shoup estimate (4%) of employers who also provide free parking. The second uses a base of all employers who provide free parking to their employees. Both scenarios assume that 1/5 of the potential employers actually offer a formal voluntary program to their SOV employees. Implementation of Parking Cash-Out To implement parking cash-out, H-GAC would design a short fact sheet describing the program administration and potential benefits. The fact sheet would also describe the specific steps an employer would take to implement a program. H-GAC would then reach out to applicable employers to request participation and ongoing documentation and discuss benefits. The fact sheet would be used in these conversations for follow-up purposes. The goal would be to engage a full 20% of potential employers who provide free parking to their employees in implementing a program with a specified time frame such as 2016. Analysis For conservatism, this analysis assumes that only a portion of employees currently offered free parking are offered a parking cash-out payment, and also that the potentially applicable employees are separate from those already commuting to work in a carpool, vanpool or via transit. Regionally, according to the Houston Household Travel Survey, 20% of work trips are via shared mode, with an 80% single occupant vehicle mode. However, the 2009 Downtown Houston Commute Survey Report53 found that 52% of employees used shared modes as a primary means of transportation to work. The analysis described below uses this larger percentage in order to ensure conservatism in the parking cash-out results. In other words the analysis described below assumes that only 48% of employees offered parking cash-out are potentially going to change from their current drive-alone mode to a shared mode of transportation as their primary commuting option. It also assumes that, in the low scenario, 4% of them represented by the low end of employers who lease parking, and can unbundle the parking part of their lease from the remainder of the lease can possibly change behavior. In the high scenario it is assumed that 20% of the SOV commuters who also receive free parking from the 4% of employers who lease parking are offered parking cash-out. As discussed above, 35% of these are likely to change their behavior. It is assumed that 17% (less than half) actually do so. 52 Personal communication, Chris Porter, Cambridge Systematics International, February 27, 2014. 64 April 2014 DRAFT According to the projections in the most recent conformity determination, 54 regional employment in 2018 will be 3,183,000 with 2,522,000 of that in Harris County. Major employment centers include Downtown Houston (150,000 employees currently55) and the Texas Medical Center (93,50056). However, many parking cash-out proponents note that restructuring parking policies anywhere, and especially in suburban areas, will also result in lower VMT and congestion. Therefore the analysis below assumes the entire workforce receiving parking subsidies and not already participating in alternative modes has potential to participate in a parking cash-out program, as modified by the data and assumptions described above. Emissions Affected This measure affects commuting emissions in the region, so a significant fraction of the lightduty vehicle emissions of 45.96 tpd VOC and 48.88 tpd NOx57 during weekdays would be affected. Note these emissions were estimated using the EPA MOBILE6 model and do not include PM2.5 as they are not yet available. The emission benefits are estimated using the EPA MOVEs model. Emissions Benefit The emissions analysis utilized the basic process suggested by the MOSERs methodology, as follows: Variables: EFA: Speed-based exhaust emission factor after implementation (NOx , VOC, CO, PM2.5, CO2) grams/mile) for light duty vehicles EFB: Speed-based running exhaust emission factor before implementation (NOx , VOC, CO, PM2.5, CO2) (grams/mile) for light duty vehicles TEFAUTO: Auto start emission factor (NOx , VOC, or CO) (grams/trip) TLA: Average auto trip length after implementation (miles) TLB: Average auto trip length before implementation (miles) VMTA: Vehicle miles travelled after implementation VMTB: Change in VMT as a result of implementation It is assumed that emission factors and trip length before and after implementation are the same. 54 http://www.h-gac.com/taq/airquality_model/conformity/2013_Phase3/docs/CONFORMITY%20DETERMINATION.pdf Table 4 contains socioeconomic projections. 55 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downtown_Houston#Demographics 56 http://texasmedicalcenter.org/facts-and-figures/ 57 2013 Conformity analysis emission estimates for 2018 http://www.hgac.com/taq/airquality_model/conformity/2013_Phase3/docs/CONFORMITY%20DETERMINATION.pdf , Table 3 starting on Page 12. 65 April 2014 DRAFT In this analysis, VMTB is derived by multiplying the number of employees offered parking cashout (12,223 in the low scenario and 110,004 in the high scenario) by their average round trip work length (26.6 miles58) and applying a 17 percent reduction in driving. For simplicity, trips are assumed not to be affected. Although some mode shift entails a trip reduction, many times individuals drive somewhere to access an alternate mode such as a park and ride lot. Results: Daily Weekday Emission Reduction Example for NOx: C = VMTB * EFA = Low scenario: 12,223 employees = VMT of 325,132 * 0.155 gram/mile NOx/454 = 111 lb/day, and 0.056 tpd NOx Higher scenario: 110,004 employees = VMT of 2,926,106 * 0.155 gram NOx/mile /454 = 999 pounds and 0.5 tpd NOx. Table 3-9. Emission Factors and Results for Parking Cash-Out in 2018 (tons). Pollutant Vehicle emissions (g/mile) Reduction Low Scenario (tons/day) Reduction Low Scenario (Tons/year)59 Reduction High Scenario (tons/day) Reduction High Scenario (tons/year) VOC 0.055 0.005 1.27 0.18 46.1 NOx 0.155 0.056 14.4 0.50 129.9 CO 1.9 0.68 176.9 6.1 1,592 PM2.5 0.0095 0.003 0.88 0.03 8.0 CO2 369.8 132.4 34,428 1,192 309,845 Cost and Cost Effectiveness Given employer savings on reduced parking lease costs, or parking income from charging for owned parking, the cost to employers could be positive or neutral (i.e., cost of the cash out equal or even less than the parking lease cost savings). Depending on program structure, cost per ton could be as low as $0. However, there would be costs incurred due to outreach to inform and assist employers in implementing the program. These costs would be borne under the Commute Solutions program. Since parking cash-out is a new program, it is assumed here that 25% of the Commute Solution program costs would be allocated to Parking Cash-Out. Commute Solutions costs are $2.5 million per year. Parking Cash-out is assumed to require 25%, or $625,000/yr. Average annual emission reductions are 73 tpy of VOC, 182.5 tpy of NOx,and 10.95 tons of PM2.5. A method for evaluating cost effectiveness for VOC, NOx and PM2.5 needs to be discussed. The cost effectiveness for PM2.5 alone is $0 - $57,078 per ton removed. The cost effectiveness for VOC plus NOx is $0 - $2,446 per ton. 58 TTI analysis of the 2009 Houston Household Travel Survey File TLFD.Hou.Reg.3WayWith.Proxy.Adj transmitted by H-GAC on 1/24/12 via email to Earth Matters with note that the file was a frequency distribution of trip lengths for trip purpose prepared by TTI. 59 Assumes 260 work-days per year 66 April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-10. Parking Cash-Out Air Emissions Benefit and Cost Effectiveness Summary. Measure ID 8 Name Parking Cash-Out Description 20% of SOV users at the 4% of companies who lease parking spots respond with 17% mode shift Affected Source On-Road Lightduty vehicles 67 Affected Emissions (tpd) 40.44 tpd VOC 47.21 tpd NOx; 1.3 tpd PM2.5 Expected Emission Reduction (higher scenario) % Tpd 0.4% 0.2 1.0% 0.5 2.0% 0.03 Cost Effectiveness ($/ton) <$0 - April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 8: Optimal Traffic Flow (Adaptive Traffic Signal Cycles/Timing to Optimize Traffic Throughput and Reversible Traffic Lanes) On-road motor vehicles which operate at steady cruise conditions and moderate speed have lower emissions compared to slower and more stop and go driving because engines are more efficient at higher loads and there is less wasted energy from braking. Improved signal cycling and timing can optimize the traffic flow. Infrastructure projects may also improve the traffic flow by allowing for extra capacity during peak periods. Project options include reversible lanes, such as utilizing a conditional middle left turn lanes for an extra lane, eliminating left turns and other grade separation projects. These projects may have additional traffic flow improvements, so the air pollutant emission reductions may not be the sole or primary reason for the project. However, emissions benefits are expected from improving traffic flows in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria area. Administration Resources These programs are administered as part of overall transportation planning. It is difficult to determine the administration costs for individual projects because the primary purpose of the projects is to improve traffic flow. Project funding (Other Costs) Projects are identified and funded individually as part of the regional road network planning. The funding is determined for each project and let to contractor. Multi‐pollutant reduction analysis ENVIRON (2013) analyzed a sample traffic signalization project and determined the benefits shown in Table 3-11. The same benefit can be assumed for the PM period for simplification, however the PM period had higher traffic volumes and slower speeds and so should have realized greater improvement from the project. Some benefit may also be realized during nonpeak periods. Therefore the project and likely most other similar types will reduce NOx by more than 1 ton per year and PM2.5 by 0.04 tons per year. Table 3-11. MOVES Model Annual Emissions Benefits Before and After Woodlands Parkway Traffic Signal Timing for the AM Period. MOVES2010a Pollutant VOC NOx CO PM10 PM2.5 CO2 SO2 NH3 Before (TPY) 0.99 8.46 34.6 0.80 0.46 7,307 0.07 0.36 After (TPY) 0.94 7.80 34.2 0.76 0.44 6,999 0.07 0.34 Benefit -0.045 -0.66 -0.46 -0.034 -0.019 -307.6 -0.003 -0.017 68 Percent Benefit -4.6% -7.8% -1.3% -4.3% -4.1% -4.2% -4.3% -4.9% April 2014 DRAFT Costs and Cost Effectiveness Because of the wide range of project costs and benefits, the costs and cost effectiveness of these projects has a wide range. Traffic signal timing projects are probably the least costly, and infrastructure projects that require construction of new infrastructure can be orders of magnitude more costly. The sample project was expected to cost $239,000 for a three-year benefit. The annualized costs and benefits results in $60,000 per NOx ton reduced and over $2 million per ton of PM2.5 benefit. Other Benefits or Considerations The main purpose of the projects is to reduce travel times, and emission benefits are a secondary benefit. Table 3-12. Optimal Traffic Flow Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Part of transportation plans. Direct project costs vary by the scope of each project. Emission benefits for NOx and PM depend upon each project. $60,000 - $600,000 per NOx ton; $2 - $20 million per PM2.5 ton reduced. Traffic flow improvements are the primary reason for these types of projects. 69 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 9: Expand the Emissions Testing Program to the Three Counties not Currently Included in the Program This measure would expand the vehicle emissions testing program (Air Check Texas) into Chambers, Liberty and Waller counties. The program as currently operated in Harris, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston and Montgomery counties requires all 2-24 year old gasoline powered vehicles to be emissions tested. The vehicle emissions testing program could be implemented in Chambers, Liberty, and Waller counties if both the county and the largest city in the county agree that such action is necessary. Should the counties decide to opt into the vehicle emissions testing program and also wish to implement the Drive A Clean Machine Program which provides funding to retire, repair and replace vehicles, the counties would have to opt into this program in a similar manner. The analysis of this measure included in the ENVIRON March 2013 Report for H-GAC highlighted the following implementation issues. 1. If an ASM/OBD testing program is implemented: As each year goes by there are less MY 1995 and older vehicles that fit within the requirement to test 2-24 year old vehicles. There may be difficulties in having sufficient ASM/OBD testing stations to carry out ASM testing as the number of MY 1995 and older vehicles decreases. 2. If an OBD only program is implemented (i.e. only MY 1996 and newer vehicles are tested): The vehicle emissions test fee of $27.00 for ASM/OBD testing in the 5 counties was based on the costs of ASM testing. If an OBD only program is implemented, vehicle owners in the 3 counties may be unhappy to be charged the same fee as owners whose vehicles are required to be tested where both tests must be offered. If the test fee is reduced in the 3 counties, owners of OBD vehicles in the 5 counties may be unhappy with a lower test fee being charged for OBD testing in the 3 counties Public acceptance of an OBD only program may be compromised regarding the fairness of allowing older more highly polluting gasoline vehicles to avoid emissions testing. In addition, the current program rules require that stations in program areas offering safety inspections must also offer the emissions inspection. The rules do allow stations an exception from offering ASM testing if they do less than 1800 tests per year. There are currently 53 safety inspection stations in the 3 counties. In 2015, the estimated number of MY 1996 and newer vehicles is 117,018. If the number of stations remains at 53, that would mean each station doing 2,207 tests. To allow this, the TCEQ rule allowing the OBD test only exception would have to be changed. However, if the OBD only test fee were to be $27, this would be more profitable for the OBD only inspection stations as they would not be investing in the more 70 April 2014 DRAFT expensive ASM equipment. This, in turn, could result in more inspection stations offering the safety and emissions test, thus avoiding the over 1800 tests issue. If an OBD only testing program is introduced in the 3 counties, testing of diesel vehicles could feasibly be added to the program (testing any MY 95 and older vehicle greater than 8500 lbs is not possible with the ASM test equipment used in the current vehicle emissions testing program). Diesel vehicles less than 8,500 lbs GVWR must be equipped with OBD systems since the 1997 MY, vehicles 8,500 – 14,000 lbs GVWR must be equipped with OBD systems since MY 2005 and OBD is required for all HDDVs over 14,000 GVWR beginning with the 2010 model year Administration Resources The administration of the additional counties inspection program would be covered under the AirCheck program. Project funding (Other Costs) Registration inspection fees would be used to fund the administration and on-going program costs. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Currently, MOVES does not quantify PM emission reduction benefits from the vehicle emissions testing program. However, it is possible that the exhaust PM emissions reduction would be similar to the VOC emissions benefit. The source characterization of PM2.5 at the Aldine monitor in the H-GAC area shows Organic Carbon, and lately scientists have found a lot of this to be secondary organic aerosol, for example xylene or toluene found in gasoline can convert to carboxylic acids and condense as PM. However, inclusion of exhaust PM reduction or PM reduction by reducing VOC emissions requires further study to be able to quantify the effects. The NOx and VOC emissions and the cost effectiveness calculations for an ASM/OBD program as set out in the March 2013 analysis are still valid. However, by 2018, it is estimated that the difference in NOx reductions if ASM tailpipe testing is eliminated would be 1.6%.60 The estimated emissions reductions from implementing an ASM/OBD program in the 3 counties are 0.37 tpd NOx and 0.28 tpd VOC. Implementing an OBD only program that would reduce these numbers by 1.6% is a small loss given how much “easier” the program would be to implement without having to require inspections stations to purchase and operate ASM emissions testing equipment. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Repair costs would be borne by the vehicle owners. 60 ERG Report : Eliminate Tailpipe Testing from the Inspection and Maintenance Program: July 2010. 71 April 2014 DRAFT Other Benefits or Considerations Multiple pollutant benefits, fuel economy improvements, and more reliable operation should be realized. Table 3-13 provides a summary of expanding inspection and maintenance to the remaining counties. Table 3-13. Expand I/M to Three Counties Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate AirCheck Texas would run the program from inspection fees. Repair costs. 130 tons NOx and 100 tons VOC per year reduced. Not detailed. Multiple pollutant benefits. 72 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 10: Off-Road Equipment Idle Reduction Idling is an inefficient use of equipment in general and generates unnecessary emissions. Idling however cannot be avoided in all cases, such as during normal work when work is performed intermittently, and the time to restart the engine would be considered a significant delay. This measure would seek to limit excessive idling when equipment is not required immediately. Suggested periods for limiting idling could be as low as 15 minutes maximum. Many on-road trucks have factory-installed engine shut down devices that automatically shut down the engine after a set period, or devices could be added to existing equipment. To implement this measure, idle shut-off devices could be employed with idle timers set to a period that would not cause typical operational problems. But operator training could provide significant idle reduction perhaps beyond idle shut-off devices or for small or little used equipment where additional hardware is not cost effective. Administration Resources If implemented, H-GAC along with agencies such as TxDOT would work with construction partners to implement an idle reduction program, and may identify federal or State grant opportunities. Project Funding (Other Costs) The scope of the program is unknown at this time. Idle shut-off devices are commercially available and funding may be available to retrofit high use equipment. Otherwise, reduced idling can be accomplished without a cost through best practices or other initiatives. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Analysis of this measure is based on estimated time in idle and relative emissions rates while at idle. Based on the EPA test procedure for off-road engines, it is estimated that nonroad engines are at idle 15% of the time they are in operation. Using emission results for two diesel engines (Gautam, 2002) as shown, for example, in Table 3-14, the idle emissions are responsible for about 2% of all emissions. Not all engines operate with the same profile as the 8-mode testing cycle shown in Table 3-14 and so may idle more or less than that shown. On the other hand, it is not possible to eliminate all engine idling as some of the idle time occurs in short duration intervals between non-idle modes that occur during normal operations. For new engines, especially those meeting the Tier 4 NOx emission standards, selective catalytic reduction (SCR) is likely to be used on most of these engines, and SCR does not work well at idle because the exhaust temperature can be too cool to keep the catalysts within its operating range. With SCR engines, the fraction of idle emissions may be considerably higher (e.g. 10% of NOx emissions) if the idle emission rate stays the same as older engines when NOx is reduced for other modes. 73 April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-14. Mode Weightings and Emissions by Mode for a Sample Engines. Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Idle Time Weighting 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.15 Speed Rated Rated Rated Rated Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate 0 Torque 100% 75 50 10 100 75 50 0 105 Hp NOx PM (g/hour) (g/hour) 1,231 20 813 29 415 18 97 9 1,110 9 523 3 444 3 107 2 250 hp NOx PM (g/hour) (g/hour) 1,832 91 1,202 55 657 41 196 36 1,471 112 1,076 62 659 35 121 10 Common types of construction equipment such as excavators, loaders, and dozers average nearly 1000 hours of year, and may idle as much as 150 hours per year. If 100 hours of idling were reduced per piece of equipment, up to 0.013 tons of NOx and 0.001 tons of PM would be reduced. Several thousand pieces of equipment would need to be enlisted to generate emission reductions of more than 10 tons of NOx and 1 ton of PM. Costs and Cost Effectiveness The benefit of idle reduction would almost always be positive in terms of cost because of the fuel savings alone. Only in the case where the engine is not often used would the return on the capital cost of added equipment result in a net cost, and, in that case, operator training would be a better option. Costs of idle limiters for construction equipment have been estimated to be $500 -$1,00061, however fuel consumption reductions would reduce the cost to the operator. Using a sample engine, idle fuel consumption is about 0.5 gallons per hour, saving nearly $200 per year when idle is reduced by 100 hours a year. The fuel cost savings would then save money over a 5 – 10 year life of the equipment. Other Benefits or Considerations Reduced idle time should also reduce maintenance costs as well as fuel costs. Table 3-15 provides a summary of the potential and considerations for an off-road idle reduction program. 61 http://www.constructionequipment.com/no-time-idling 74 April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-15. Off-Road Equipment Idle Reduction Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate H-GAC and other agencies would assist contractors applying for grants or through cooperative programs. Cost may be incurred for idle shutoff hardware offset by fuel and maintenance cost reductions. Emission reductions for all pollutants though only about 2% of emissions are at idle. Costs for hardware may be recovered with lower fuel costs. Fuel and maintenance cost reductions. 75 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 11: Electric Lawn Equipment Exchange Program These types of programs are seasonal, scheduled events where members of the public may trade in working gas-powered lawnmowers to receive a discount on a new electric-powered lawnmower. In an example program designed for the South Coast, consumers wishing to take part in this trade-in/incentive program must pre-register on the SCAQMD (South Coast Air Quality Management District) website (www.aqmd.gov) or by phone. This pre-registration provides AQMD with an estimate of how many electric mowers to purchase and have on hand. People registering are probably also given instruction and an understanding of the specifics of the program as well as information for determine if their mower qualifies for the trade-in discount. This prevents mowers being brought to the event that do not qualify for a discount. Trade-in events take place on specific days and locations. In the case of this specific program, events took place on four different days in May through July at various cities within SCAQMD’s operating area including Long Beach, Pasadena, Riverside, and Anaheim. Administration Resources The program will have some administrative costs including time spent working with vendors on the program and arranging locations for the trade-in and purchase. Advertising and outreach are also likely elements in order for the public to be made aware of the program. Staff would also be needed to operate the trade-in setup areas. Project Funding (Other Costs) The program is sponsored by SCAQMD (South Coast Air Quality Management District) and CARB (California Air Resources Board). These agencies work with vendors (in this case Greenstation and Black&Decker) to provide a monetary incentive for consumers. The consumers receive a discount on their new lawnmower purchase when they trade in an old, working gas-powered lawnmower. The difference between regular price and the discounted price for the new electric lawnmowers is likely paid by SCAQMD and CARB, although the vendor may also reduce the price as an incentive for their products to be chosen for the program. Direct costs include the cost of incentivizing the discounted purchase price of the lawnmowers. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Table A-10 shows annual emissions per mower of a typical 3-6 horsepower gas-powered lawnmower that would be exchanged in 2018 in Texas. The average lifetime is estimated to be 6 years, and lifetime emissions represent the amount to be reduced for each mower that was exchanged. 76 April 2014 DRAFT While most programs target lawnmowers, other equipment could be replaced with electric versions. Table A-11 shows that blowers produce more VOC and PM2.5 over their five year lifetime than lawn mowers, and would be good candidates for an electric replacement program. Costs and Cost Effectiveness The cost per unit was estimate base on the price reduction from regular retail price. Table 3-16. Sample Costs of Electric Lawnmowers. Cost Rebate (per unit) $280 $250 $279 $249 $229 $257 Lawnmower Model Greenstation 20” 24v lawnmower Greenstation 20” 24v, self-propelled lawnmower Black&Decker 18” 36v lawnmower Black&Decker 19” 36v lawnmower Black&Decker 19” 36v, self-propelled lawnmower Average cost reduction: Using the average lifetime emissions for lawnmowers and the rebate costs, the cost effectiveness ($/ton of emissions) is shown below in Table 3-17. Table 3-17. Lawnmower exchange cost effectiveness ($/ton). Avg. Cost Effectiveness ($/ton): VOC $66,657 CO $5,358 NOx $609,310 PM $4,053,466 Other Benefits or Considerations In addition to reduced emissions, electric lawnmowers have the added benefit of reducing noise pollution. According to the event flier, these lawnmowers are 50% quieter than a gaspowered lawnmower. Additionally, as more members of the public purchase and use electric lawnmowers, the option for electric mowers will become more known. This may influence others to buy an electric mower next time they are in the market for a new lawnmower. Table 3-18 provides a summary of the likely benefits of a lawn equipment exchange program. 77 April 2014 DRAFT Table 3-18. Electric Lawn Equipment Exchange Program Summary. Input Administration Other Costs Emissions Cost Effectiveness ($/ton) Other Benefits or Considerations Estimate Working with vendor to create program and administering the exchange as well as advertising and outreach. $229-$280 per lawnmower. (1,000 lawnmowers: 5 VOC, 0.42 NOx, 0.06 tons PM) (1,000 blowers: 4 VOC, 0.15 NOx, 0.54 tons PM) VOC - $66,657 NOx - $609,310 PM - $4,053,466 Reduction in noise as well as increased public awareness of the electric option. Control Measure 12: Circulator service to major trip generators We propose evaluating specific examples such as suggested in the Energy Corridor study. A realistic scenario needs to be defined to evaluate this measure. Control Measure 13: Increase HOV Occupancy to 3 or More Per Vehicle Nearly all the HOV lanes in the Houston region operate for two+ person carpools and therefore there is room to tighten these requirements to apply to 3 or more people per pool. The high congestion levels in the region, along with the greater acceptance of carpooling as a means to get around (more than 11% of work trips in the region are made via carpool) mean that a change in requirements could increase the number of carpoolers and decrease vehicular traffic. The current requirements and schedules for HOV lanes are listed in Table 3-19. Table 3-19. HOV Lanes Studied. Location I-45 North North Freeway US 59 North Eastex Freeway I-45 South Gulf Freeway US 59 South Southwest Freeway US 290 West Northwest Freeway Day Monday - Friday Monday - Friday Monday - Friday Monday - Friday Monday - Friday Time 5 - 11 a.m. 1 - 8 p.m. 5 - 11 a.m. 1 - 8 p.m. 5 - 11 a.m. 1 - 8 p.m. 5 - 11 a.m. 1 - 8 p.m. 5 - 6:30 a.m. 6:30 - 8 a.m. 8 - 11 a.m. 1 - 8 p.m. Direction Inbound Outbound Inbound Outbound Inbound Outbound Inbound Outbound Inbound Outbound HOV Free 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 2+ 3+ 2+ 2+ Solo Drvers See HOT Lanes for Schedule and Toll Rates. Source: http://www.ridemetro.org/Services/HOV.aspx and http://www.ridemetro.org/Services/HOTLanes.aspx To evaluate this measure it would be necessary to estimate the number of people currently carpooling in vehicles carrying only two people who would switch to a 3+ carpool. Noting that all carpoolers are aware of how much time they save by pooling and that they are accustomed 78 April 2014 DRAFT to carpooling, it is difficult to imagine that a significant number would cease carpooling. Instead it is likely that most two-person carpools would find a way to change to 3 or more person pools. The travel modeling section provided estimates of VMT by SOV, 2+, 3+ and 4+ carpools for 2019 and 2025 in January, 201462. Using these figures, the estimate being made by the travel model for 2018 is that 32,841,645 miles per day of VMT are by carpools of 2 people. This means that 2 person carpools are removing 32,841,645 miles of travel daily with respect to SOV. If these were all 3 person carpools this implies 65,683,290 miles per day removed. However this figure also would represent 36.8 percent of area VMT which is not realistic. Since there is no logical method to adjust total VMT we could instead assume the 3 person requirement is only applied to peak period travel, which is almost a given anyway. Peak period VMT by 2 person carpools was estimated using travel model output (see footnote below) as 17,788,700. If a third person joined these 2 person carpools, an additional 17,788,700 miles could be eliminated relative to the baseline which already accounts for the first (one driver means one set of VMT not eliminated). Because this measure would be implemented by law, with violation fees applicable to those not complying, and it would apply to all applicable traffic, the measure would be far more effective than anything voluntary such as employer buy-in to Commute Solutions approaches. Another file provided in the set referenced above provided VMT by facility class in the region. This file shows that 46 percent of area VMT occurs on freeway facilities. However, only 1.83% occurs on HOV, HOT, or diamond lanes. The 3 person carpools will be formed for users who cross over any portion of an HOV type facility where the number of people in their car might be policed. This amount is unknown. Knowing the area, it is difficult to imagine that many trips made via shared mode are short enough not to utilize a facility where the 3+ requirement would be in effect. This analysis assumes that all highway VMT potentially reduced by the requirement will be. It leaves out all the non-highway VMT, which is probably quite conservative in any case. If only the freeway travel VMT is eliminated the measure could remove 46.6% of the 17,788,700 miles travelled by 2 person carpools, which is 8,289,534 miles daily. Ignoring any potential trip reductions, this measure will reduce VOC by 0.53 tpd; NOx by 1.64 tpd; PM2.5 by 0.09 tpd; CO by 18.9 tpd; and CO2 by 3,371 tpd. 62 Personal communication, email January 3, 2014 from H-GAC, to ENVIRON transmitting travel model output file tceq2_data.xlsx 79 April 2014 DRAFT Control Measure 14: Managed Lanes to Accommodate Some Single Occupant Vehicles (HOT lane conversions) Managed lanes are a type of congestion pricing, and the manner in which they’re implemented in the Houston region is a good example. Congestion pricing or congestion charges is a system of surcharging users of a transportation network in periods of peak demand in order to reduce traffic congestion. By providing drivers a financial incentive to take mass transit or other alternative modes during congested times or to shift their time of travel, congestion pricing can be a viable way to manage the number of vehicles on the road. There are two general types of congestion pricing. One, operated primarily internationally, is to charge all users of certain facilities by time of day. H-GAC evaluated a hypothetical application of this measure in 2006, and concluded that the program would result in very small emission reductions and for a very high price because of feasibility and mobility issues. The other, being implemented in many areas of the U.S., is conversion of High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) to High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes. H-GAC, in conjunction with Metro and TXDOT, has been operating high occupancy vehicle lanes since the first one on I-45 in 1979. Nearly all require only two people per vehicle to qualify although some sections of 290 West have a 3+ requirement. Currently these lanes are offered along sections of I-10, US290, I-45, and US59. Houston is unique in that the periods in which these lanes operate are nearly all day. Actually they would be all day except that because highway space is limited, the lanes operate in different directions depending on the principal flow of traffic. Most urban areas operate the lanes from hours such as 7 am to 10 am for the morning peak period, and 3 pm to 7 pm for the evening peak period. Houston hours of operation for these lanes is nearly all day: 5 am to 11 am for the morning peak, and 2 pm to 8 pm for the evening peak. Under HOV to HOT lane conversions, motorists may pay a fee to use the HOV lanes, often over a dollar per mile. This latter application is somewhat controversial as it discourages carpooling by allowing single occupancy vehicles to utilize facilities. It’s also criticized as favoring higher income people who can afford the often high tolls. Although some motorists in areas that have already converted HOV to HOT lanes complain that their commute times in the free lanes have doubled, dozens of areas are implementing this measure with federal grant money. The reasoning is that the additional use of the HOV lanes helps improve traffic flow in the nonHOV lanes and produces revenue. It also improves the use of underutilized HOV lanes. The first HOT lane experiment in Houston began with QuickRide in 1998 on the Katy freeway, followed by a 2000 HOT lane on the Northwest freeway. As a measure of the Houston area’s forward thinking, by 2004 when “Value Pricing” was just becoming a watchword and of national interest, these two HOT lanes were the only ones operating in the U.S. with the exception of two in California. 80 April 2014 DRAFT For example, Houston METRO has begun or completed conversion to dual direction tolled facilities in 83 miles of major corridors in existing Bus/HOV Corridors begun in January 2011. HOT lanes will be established on I-45 North and South, US 59 North and South and US 290. The HOT Lanes will include toll points on - I-45S Gulf Freeway, US59S Southwest Freeway, - I-45N, North Freeway, - US290, Northwest Freeway, -US59N, Eastex Freeway. All are single lanes, reversible, closed at night and weekends, designed principally to provide extended peak hours congestion avoidance. Currently, METRO HOT Lanes Corridors are in operation along IH 45 South IH 45 North US 59 South US 59 North US 290 Tolls are based on time of day and the congestion level of each of the METRO HOT Lanes corridors. The toll rates for specific corridors are prominently displayed along each corridor at the entrances. Drivers without passengers are allowed to use the system by paying a toll with an authorized toll tag. This includes a METRO HOT Lanes Toll Tag, Harris County EZ TAG, TxDOT’s TxTAG or the Dallas NTTA Toll Tag. Traffic monitoring systems help METRO maintain traffic speeds to ensure optimal travel times for existing HOV Lane users, as well those using the METRO HOT Lanes. The HOT Lanes are not open during the peak periods of traffic. The HOV/HOT Lane system is intended to give precedence to HOV users. The METRO HOT Lanes were designed to make better use of available space on the HOV lanes during periods of time when traffic is not at its peak. However, if the HOT lanes were open at the peak periods, so many people would be in the lane, it would eliminate any time-savings for everyone involved. 81 April 2014 DRAFT Figure 3-1. HOT Lane Network. Evaluating Emission Changes from HOT Lanes HOT lanes can decrease congestion by allowing SOV users to use underutilized capacity. In the Houston region, this is only allowed during off-peak hours, since the use of the HOV lanes by carpoolers results in full and over-capacity usage of the HOV lanes during peak period. This benefit can be swamped by exogenous changes in travel. For example, as described below, an increase in the economic vibrancy and growth in population and employment in the region have resulted in a slowing of traffic speeds along all the highway corridors irrespective of whether HOV lanes were converted. An ongoing study measuring the effects of HOT lane conversions in several U.S. cities is also indicating that the ability to use toll lanes by SOV drivers can lower the number of carpools. However this result was most prominent when a simultaneous change was made in the required number of passenger to qualify as a carpool, making it difficult to determine the source of the decrease in the number of multi-passenger cars. The primary benefit of HOV/HOT lanes is improvements to traffic flow. It is recommended that before and after estimates of traffic volumes and speeds by lane be evaluated in order to determine the emission changes from these measures. This has been discussed with the H-GAC travel modeling section and travel model or possibly traffic sensor data (observed data as being used in a national study of the benefits in 5 cities) could be used to determine before and after traffic volumes and speeds. It would take significant resources for the travel modeling section to model the scenarios but they have indicated that it is technically feasible. Agencies in the region have been monitoring traffic and speeds along the converted highways. They have concluded that daily traffic data does not suggest that speeds in the HOV Lanes have 82 April 2014 DRAFT dropped due to solo drivers; however, speeds on the HOV Lanes - even corridors that have not been converted to HOT Lanes - have dropped in general. For example, the average speed on the IH-45 South HOV/HOT lane is 59 mph from 5 - 6 a.m. and 54 mph from 6 - 7 a.m. Between 5 - 6 a.m., there is an average of 32 solo drivers and 240 solo drivers between 6 - 7 a.m. Even with the significant increase in METRO HOT Lanes users during the 6 - 7 a.m. period, the average speed changes very little. One of the key reasons for slower speeds is additional cars/drivers on the roads (HOV/HOT Lanes and the main lanes), due to a pick-up in the economy. Traffic counts for all corridors are up almost 10 percent in the lanes. With more people going to work each day, the additional cars create slower speeds across every corridor. Control Measure 15: Clean Cities Technical Coalition The clean cities technical coalition provides the forum for the Clean Cities program efforts. It is comprised of fleet administrators, fuel providers, automobile manufacturers, and others who are interested in seeing an increased use of alternative fuels, extend refueling infrastructure, and educate benefits of using alternative fuels. Furthermore, the coalition supports the use of hybrid vehicles, fuel blends, fuel economy practices and idle-reduction technology. The Coalition is a fuel-neutral, community-based advisory board that supports the use of alternative fuels and clean technology options to improve air quality and create energy diversity. Control Measure 16: Heavy-duty Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance In general, heavy-duty vehicles are not part of the current inspection and maintenance (I/M) program, but there may be an emission reduction opportunity with heavy-duty vehicles. All gasoline vehicles 2-24 years old are subject to inspection in the current I/M program. MY 1995 and older vehicles over 8,500 lbs receive a Two-Speed Idle (TSI) inspection rather than the ASM inspection required for light-duty gasoline vehicles. MY 1996 and newer vehicles are onboard diagnostic (OBD) tested, if available, and the emissions inspection consists of checking whether or not the vehicle’s malfunction indicator light (or check engine light) is on plus a gas cap test. To date, the program has not been evaluated for emission reduction potential for heavy-duty gasoline vehicles as OBD was not required on these vehicles until the 2004 model year. Diesel vehicles less than 8,500 lbs GVWR must be equipped with OBD systems since the 1997 MY, vehicles 8,500-14,000 lbs GVWR must be equipped with OBD systems since MY 2005 and OBD is required for all HDDVs over 14,000 GVWR beginning with the 2010 model year. Programs that use opacity testing only for HDDVs are operated in a number of states. However, even the snap acceleration test has limitations such as insensitivity to fine PM generated by modern diesel engine systems and the fact that the opacity measurement is during unloaded engine operation rather than under load. As tuning for PM by making the fuel- 83 April 2014 DRAFT air mixture leaner can increase NOx emissions, an inspection program that controls for opacity but not for NOx may raise NOx levels. In the Greater Vancouver study referenced below63, Envirotest Canada demonstrated two technologies for HDV I/M; the Heavy Duty Emissions Tunnel (HDET) and Remote Sensing Device (RSD), with the tunnel serving as a practical HDV I/M emissions test and RSD serving as a complimentary on-road screening tool just as it serves in LDV I/M. Both test technologies detect NOx VOC and PM emissions. The RSD uses UV light (~230nm) to measure opacity because of its far greater sensitivity to fine particle matter than the traditional green light (550nm) used in opacity meters, and because the channel at that wavelength is more sensitive to the particles comprising most of the particulate mass emitted by today’s diesel vehicles. The HDET Test used a long tent as a sampling chamber and some of the same analyzers used at LDV dynamometer testing facilities to collect and integrate an exhaust sample of a 7-10 second real-world drive cycle. The sampling tent was 50 feet long, 15 feet wide and 18 feet high at it apex. The structure overlay a section of road populated with HDV traffic – in this case at a weigh station. The length of the tunnel allowed exhaust from an accelerating high-tailpipe HDV to be contained and collected. At the apex of the tunnel there was a pipe about 16 feet above the roadway with 50 holes drilled one foot apart. An inline air fan drew air from inside the tent (along with truck exhaust) through the holes and down the pipe to a set of emission analyzers for integral measurement. The collected exhaust sample included the emissions from multiple accelerator positions as the HDV up-shifted gears while gaining speed. Texas A&M Transportation Institute in a study for North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) used a similar tunnel, referred to in their study as Streamlined Heavy-Duty Emissions Determination (SHED).64 The conclusion of the tunnel study was that the accuracy and the ability to measure more emissions parameters make it a very promising technology. In addition, the control over the test process is reasonably high. If the truck does not accelerate properly through the test, the inspector can require it to go through again thus allowing one reading to be used as the screen. While concluding that OBD (which is now standard on all MY 2010 and newer HDDVs) is a viable long-term solution to HDDV emissions testing, the SHED testing approach evaluated as part of the Texas A&M/NCTCOG study was deemed to be a useful technology for the short term in the following scenarios: Implementation of a conventional I/M program based on SHED only – in which all HDDVs registered in the program area need to pass SHED testing. 63 Greater Vancouver Regional District Remote Sensing Device Trial for Monitoring Heavy Duty VehicleEmissions. Envirotest Canada, March 2013 64 Texas A&M Institute for North Central Texas Council of Governments and Texas Department of Transportation: Heavy Duty Diesel Inspection and Maintenance Pilot Program: May 2013 (revised Oct 2013). 84 April 2014 DRAFT Conventional remote sensing deployed at checkpoints to screen for potential High Emitters, similar to the light-duty vehicle (LDV) on-road inspection program, followed by SHED testing at a test facility. SHED testing used for preliminary screening, followed by chassis dynamometer testing for high-emitting HDDVs. This can be conducted through an approach similar to the LDV onroad inspection program, where vehicles screened as HEs (either through SHED or conventional remote sensing) are notified and required to pass an emissions test at a testing facility. Alternatively, vehicles can be made to pass through the SHED for real-time screening, followed by immediate testing of HEs using a chassis dynamometer set-up. Administration Resources The administration of an inspection program for heavy-duty would likely build off the light-duty vehicle AirCheck program. Project Funding (Other Costs) Registration or inspection fees would be used to fund the administration and on-going program costs. Multi‐pollutant Reduction Analysis Currently, MOVES modeling does not quantify PM benefits from emissions testing gasoline fueled vehicles. There is, however, an implicit acknowledgement that I/M for gasoline fueled vehicles is likely to have a beneficial impact on emissions beyond HC, CO, and NOx such as toxics and PM. There is also currently no emissions credit in MOVES for emissions testing of diesel fueled vehicles because it is unclear that there is a positive impact on PM emissions as a result of some of the tests currently used to screen diesel vehicles, like the snap-idle opacity test. Regarding diesel OBD based I/M testing, the vehicles in question are either too few (OBD-equipped lightduty diesel vehicles) or too new (OBD-equipped medium to heavy duty diesel vehicles) to be included in MOVES runs. This analysis is not able to assess project funding and cost effectiveness. Costs and Cost Effectiveness Costs and benefits are unknown. Other Benefits or Considerations Unknown until program is implemented. 85 April 2014 DRAFT SECTION 4: ADDITIONAL TRANSPORTATION RELATED EMISSION REDUCTION MEASURES H-GAC and its oversight committees have sought to better understand the emission reduction potential of a wide range of potential programs. To date, the potential program list includes the following, listed in Table 4-1 along with our qualitative estimate of the potential of each measure. The measures listed here are unlikely to produce large emissions reductions, except for paving high fugitive dust areas near sensitive receptors. Table 4-1. Summary of Additional Measures with Qualitative Emission Reduction and Cost Effectiveness Rankings. Measure Overweight trucking route Barge transport/return of empty shipping containers from the Port of Freeport to Port of Houston First and last mile deliveries: bottlenecks and emission reduction potential INVEST self-assessment tool to evaluate and improve the sustainability of plans and projects PM2.5 reductions for paving projects Buffer zones Automated gates optical character recognition (OCR) and drayage truck driving directions at the Port of Houston Corridor Specific TDM Planning: Real World Example Eco-Driving 86 Emission Reduction Low Low Cost Effectiveness Poor Unknown Low N/A Unknown N.A High N/A Low Medium N.A Medium Low Low Poor Poor April 2014 DRAFT Dedicated Overweight Truck Routes An overweight or dedicated truck route can improve emission by reducing stop and go emissions, and allowing overweight trucks may reduce the number of truck trips. This measure would create dedicated routes able to allow overweight trucks. Dedicated routes can provide a benefit without an overweight allowance by smoothing the traffic flow. In other transportation measures, such as traffic signal improvements, traffic flow improvements have been shown to reduce emissions rates by 5 – 10% for regional fleets. The relative benefit may be higher with heavy-duty trucks than for light-duty vehicles because braking, idling, and acceleration are high emissions modes for trucks. How overweight trucks affect emissions depends upon the incremental increase in emissions due to the extra truck loading and the reduced truck trips from normal weight trucks. The incremental increase in overweight truck emissions requires further study, but the MOVES model provides methods to evaluate the effect of increased vehicle loads on emission rates. An investigation of the extra weight on the trucks will be required to estimate the reduction in the number of normal weight trucks trips. Overall emission reductions will also depend on the dedicated truck routes and the expected usage of those routes. Other considerations of this measure include whether infrastructure costs are incurred to allow overweight trucks, create grade separation or other network planning will allow such trucks routes to be constructed. Traffic congestion mitigation benefits of dedicated truck routes could be important separate of the emissions reductions. Barge Transport Barge transport or short sea shipping has been offered as an alternative to over the road trucking to reduce road congestion and reduce emissions. One such operation suggested is to move empty shipping containers from Freeport to the Port of Houston via tug and barge rather than by truck as has been done to date. Data required are number of containers per barge and per truck trip, average age distributions of tugs and trucks, trip speed and engine load, and mileage. The mileage appears to be similar but shorter by land than by sea based on typical road routes (60 miles to Bayport and 67 miles to Barbours Cut) and by inland waterway in Google Earth (68 miles to Bayport and 71 miles to Barbours Cut) . Because marine engine emission standards have lagged those for on-road trucks, tug and barge transport may have higher emissions rates until the marine engines have been upgraded to similar emission reduction technology as those for on-road vehicles. 87 April 2014 DRAFT First and Last Mile Deliveries The end of long trips (whether by ship, train, or long-haul truck) is often at a large distribution center and then ultimate delivery is accomplished by short trips to customer. For example, intermodal rail or port trips involve local drayage trucks at the beginning or end of the rail trip and could be used as an example of such activity. However, this proposed measure needs to better define the specific bottleneck reduction and proposed improvement. INVEST Self-Assessment Tool The INVEST (Infrastructure Voluntary Evaluation Sustainability Tool) self-assessment tool is a newer Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) web-based collection of voluntary best practices, called criteria, designed to help transportation agencies integrate sustainability into their programs (policies, processes, procedures and practices) and projects. INVEST is not a measure to evaluate, nor does it suggest measures or evaluate them at the level of detail appropriate for a multi-pollutant analysis. Therefore it is not likely that it will be of great interest in Task 3. We will explore the possibility of applying Project Development Criteria for PD-06: Tracking Environmental Commitments; PD-10: Pedestrian Access; and PD-11: Bicycle Access on project specifications that add pedestrian and bicycle capacity or use (such as new bicycle technology that gives bikes a mechanical boost for longer distances and use on hills) as part of a scoring analysis to determine the potential applicability of additional measures to reduce PM2.5 or ozone precursors. Because the tool does not provide the level of detail normally used in emission control measure assessments it may not be applicable to the H-GAC multi-pollutant program. The tool does not constitute a measure in and of itself. Road Dust Fugitive road dust entrainment rates, whether from parking lots or on the network, depend upon the dust loading, vehicle speed and number of vehicles. Dust loading has been controlled by paving unpaved surfaces and regular pavement cleaning or watering or other treatment of unpaved surfaces. The benefits of these programs are proportional to the activity on those surfaces. Analysis of these projects is relatively straightforward given the level of activity and understanding of the dust loading of those areas. In recent years, the Port of Houston Authority (PHA) established and began implementation of dust suppression programs. Dust suppression materials are regularly applied to unpaved lots and several unpaved lots and roads have been paved since 2008. Additional dust suppression paving projects are planned along with continued dust suppression material application. Buffer Zones Buffer zones, barriers and planted vegetation have been suggested as options to reduce exposure to vehicle emissions. Baldauf et al. (2013) report a reduction of near roadway particulate matter due to roadside barriers. However little study has been conducted to determine how regional air quality can be affected by such buffer zones. 88 April 2014 DRAFT Automated Gates at Intermodal Yards Ports and rail intermodal yards have been employing optical character recognition (OCR) and gate or cell phone applications to provide drayage truck driving directions. These innovations have been shown to reduce queuing times and may reduce in yard driving that will reduce truck emissions. PHA implemented an automated gate system with OCR portal to automate equipment identification, traffic processing and damage inspection imaging at the entry gate of the Barbours Cut and Bayport container terminals. The system automatically identifies containers, chassis, and license plates associated with the equipment. Since implementation, PHA has transformed the gate into a free-flowing process – processing takes about half the time it did prior to gate automation. Gate OCR installation enabled PHA to process trucks twice as fast and reduced truck idling time by 48%, dramatically reducing emissions. Corridor Specific TDM Planning: Real World Example Corridor specific travel demand management is a targeted way to decrease emissions through the encouragement of alternative mode use for specific areas or situations. A December, 2013 CMAQ proposal for the 290 corridor65 included plans to utilize a real-time ridesharing application by Northern California based Carma (also called Avego) to shift a significant portion of commuters in the Hwy 290 corridor from driving alone to carpooling. With regard to the energy corridor, the construction activity on highway 290 is expected to exacerbate existing traffic congestion problems as commuters seek alternate routes to final destinations, including traffic arteries into I-10W. Carma is a commercial off-the shelf software application that can be accessed from a desktop browser or smartphone, somewhat similar to the NuRide application. Carma enables private cars to become part of the public transport network by providing a marketplace for drivers to offer their unused seats to other people in real time. The Carma system combines gps-enabled real-time ride matching with fully automated payment transaction management, instant messaging, push notifications, safety features, and commute reporting to enable more flexible and verifiable carpooling. Through this approach drivers are offered a means of saving time and money on their commute without having to stick to rigid carpooling schedules, while riders get the benefit of a convenient, safe and affordable alternative to driving alone. The proposers based their estimates are based on TXDOT’s 2012 traffic counts along the Highway 290 corridor, and participation rates experienced in the San Francisco Carma project (1.75 percent participation rates). Using these estimates the proposers estimated that a fully 65 Highway 290 Construction Zone Congestion Mitigation Plan Submitted to The Texas Department of Transportation By The Energy Corridor District and TREK December 2, 2013 89 April 2014 DRAFT implemented Carma Project would result in a reduction of more than 2.7 million vehicle trips over the 5-year grant period and a reduction of more than 30.9 million vehicle miles traveled over the same period. In year 5 they estimated a trip reduction of 1,065,427 and a VMT reduction of 11,717,319. Because the construction along 290 will be as untenable as it is expected to be, and drive alone modes could result in a several hour one-way commute, we assume here that the rate of new ridesharing is equivalent to the area wide carpooling rate of 11 percent instead of 1.75%. If commuters along I-290 shift to carpooling at the regional rate of 11%, daily trip reductions will be 18,348 and daily VMT reductions will be 201,785. Table 4-2 presents the associated emission reductions based on the activity and vehicles involved. Table 4-2. Emission Factors and Results for Corridor Specific Carpooling Along 290 Construction Corridor. Pollutant Running Emissions (g/mile) Start Emissions (g/start) Emission Reduction (tons/day) VOC 0.058 0.66 0.026 NOx 0.18 0.54 0.051 CO 2.07 5.7 0.58 PM2.5 0.0095 0.007 0.002 CO2 369.5 59.8 83.3 Eco-Driving The definition of eco-driving can include a number of techniques and behaviors to reduce the emissions during operation. A succinct description of eco-driving is provided here: “Eco-driving, sometimes called green driving, refers to techniques drivers can use to maximize their mileage while saving fuel and minimizing tailpipe emissions. Simple ecodriving maneuvers include accelerating slowly, avoiding sudden braking, keeping tires properly inflated, and maintaining a steady speed.” http://its.berkeley.edu/node/3532/ Essentially, eco-driving could include a number of initiatives from operator education, fleet management, and technology to provide operator feedback and route planning. Ecodriving can result in reducing braking and idling events thus providing measureable emissions reductions. Insurance companies are promoting eco-driving while calling it pay-as-you-drive. Participating motorists install mechanisms such as OnStar in their vehicles and the incidence of slow acceleration, proper braking, and steady speeds, as well as maintenance factors such as tire pressure are recorded electronically. Because motorists who drive this way have been shown to be of less risk than the general population of drivers, insurance rates can be lowered. In conversations with the insurance industry in 2012 it became clear that the amount of driving is not as great a factor in driving risk as the style of driving. The insurance companies are calling programs that promote smoother driving the wave of the future and are certain that a large proportion of insured drivers will be utilizing this type of program in the future. 90 April 2014 DRAFT A study of Eco Driving in California presented at the 2013 TRB conference66 evaluated the behavioral modifications that drivers can make to improve their fuel economy. In this study, dynamic ecodriving comprised the use of real-time feedback information that informed the driver of vehicle performance. The study evaluated the performance of an aftermarket real-time feedback device that reported instantaneous fuel economy to drivers while driving. 18 study participants drove with the device for two months. During the first month, the device provided no feedback, but collected data on driving activity. During the second month, the device continued to collect data, but also provided the participant with feedback on real-time fuel economy. Participants could then use the information to self-teach how to improve their fuel economy. The participants took two surveys to evaluate their response to the device, and vehicle activity data was analyzed to ascertain the degree to which driving behavior changed. A majority (56%) reported in surveys that the device changed how they drove during the second month. Vehicle activity data showed that different participants modified different behaviors in response to the feedback. Half the participants made some reduction to their acceleration from a stop, and eight made some reduction in the magnitude of their deceleration to a stop. Eleven participants reduced their average highway speeds. Across the broader sample, average highway speeds declined from 65.9 to 65.4 mph. Overall changes observed in fuel efficiency were small across the sample, which when excluding outliers, constituted a 1.4% improvement in fuel economy. If a similar approach were utilized in the Houston region with similar effects, we could hypothesize that a 1.4 percent improvement in fuel economy in 50% of participants could result. A rough estimate of the effects is analyzed as follows: 1. Assume 0.1 percent of Houston driving improves fuel economy by 1.4 percent (a 1.4 percent reduction in emissions is assumed) 2. Total daily VMT in the region is 178,317,400. 0.1 percent (the hypothesized participation rate) is 0.047 tpd of NOx, 0.040 tpd of VOC, 0.001 tpd of PM2.5, 65 tpd of CO2, and 0.52tpd of CO. 3. A 1.4 percent reduction in these emissions would be equivalent to negligible emission reductions. 4. If the participation rate were increased to 1 percent the emission decrease would rise to 5.6 thousandths of a ton of NOx, still quite small. Because the likely emission reductions are so small and the program is hypothetical and not yet under discussion by any committees in the region, an estimate of possible costs and cost effectiveness is not available at this time. 66 “Dynamic Ecodriving in Northern California: A Study of Survey and Vehicle Operations Data from an Ecodriving Feedback Device” Martin, Boriboonsomsin, Chan, Williams, Shaheen and Barth, 2013 TRB annual Meeting. 91 April 2014 DRAFT REFERENCES ARB, 2004. Executive Order DE-04-008. Technology Verification for Lubrizol’s PuriNOx. http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/verdev/level2/eopurinox080404.pdf. Baldauf , Richard, G. McPherson , L. Wheaton , M. Zhang , T. Cahill, C. Bailey, C. Hemphill Fuller , E. Withycombe , and K. Titus, 2013. “Integrating Vegetation and Green Infrastructure into Sustainable Transportation Planning.” Transportation Research News, September– October 2013. CEC, 2003. “Reducing California’s Petroleum Dependence”, A Joint Report of the California Energy Commission and California Air Resources Control Board, P600-03-005F, August 2003. ENVIRON, 2013c. “Evaluation of Mobile Source Control Measures,” prepared for: HoustonGalveston Area Council, March 2013. EPA, (1994), “Determination of Significance for Nonroad Sources and Emission Standards for New Nonroad Compression-Ignition Engines At or above 37 Kilowatts; Final Rule,” Federal Register, v. 59, n. 116, June 17, 1994. EPA, (1998), “Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines; Final Rule,” Available Online; http://www.epa.gov/oms/nonroad.htm, Federal Register v.63 n. 205, October 23, 1998. EPA, 2001. “Control of Air Pollution from New Motor Vehicles: Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel Sulfur Control Requirements,” EPA, 2002a. “Impacts of Lubrizol’s PuriNOx Water/Diesel Emulsion on Exhaust Emissions from Heavy Duty Engines.” Draft Technical Report. EPA 420-P-02-007. December. http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/p02007.pdf EPA, 2002b. “Fact sheet: Clean Alternative Fuels: Fischer-Tropsch”, EPA420-F-00-036, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/consumer/fuels/altfuels/420f00036.pdf EPA, 2003. “The Effect of Cetane Number Increase Due to Additives on NOx Emissions from Heavy-Duty Highway Engines, Final Technical Report”, EPA420-R-03-002, February 2003. Gautam, M. 2002. “Testing for Exhaust Emissions of Diesel Powered Off- Road Engines,” Project Reference Number: ARB Contract Number 98-317, Final Project Report, May 29, 2002, prepared for the California Air Resources Board and the California Environmental Protection Agency. US Department of Energy, 2013. Alternative Fuels Data Center. xTL Fuels. Accessed online at: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/emerging_xtl_fuels.html 92 April 2014 DRAFT APPENDIX Supplemental Information April 2014 DRAFT Supplemental Information Table A-1. Emission Standards for New Compression-ignition Engines. Engine Power kW<8 (hp<11) 8kW<19 (11hp<25) 19kW<37 (25hp<50) 19kW<56 (25hp<75) 37kW<75 (50hp<100) 75kW<130 (100hp<175) Tier Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 4 Tier 1 1998 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 (<75 hp) Tier 4 (≥75 hp) 2004 2008 2008 2013 2011 – 2013 Tier 1 1997 Tier 2 Tier 3 2003 2007 2011 – 2013 225kW<450 (300hp<600) CO g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) 8.0 (6.0) 8.0 (6.0) --6.6 (4.9) 6.6 (4.9) --5.5 (4.1) 5.5 (4.1) 4.7 (3.5) --- 5.0 (3.7) 5.0 (3.7) 0.40 (0.30) 4.7 (3.5) --- 0.30 (0.22) 0.03 (0.02) --- 0.013 (0.01) None None (smoke) 5.0 (3.7) 5.0 (3.7) 0.30 (0.22) --- 0.013 (0.01) 8.5 0.54 (0.4) 1996 Tier 2 2003 Tier 3 2006 4.0 (3.0) Tier 4 2011 – 2014 Tier 1 1996 Tier 2 Tier 3 2001 2006 2011 – 2014 0.4 (0.3) NOx 0.19 (0.14) NMHC 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 6.4 (4.8) 4.0 (3.0) 0.4 (0.3) NOx 0.19 (0.14) NMHC 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 6.4 (4.8) 4.0 (3.0) 0.4 (0.3) NOx 0.19 (0.14) NMHC Tier 1 1996 Tier 2 Tier 3 2002 2006 2011 – 2014 Tier 4 PM g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) 1.0 (0.75) 0.80 (0.60) 0.40 (0.30) 0.80 (0.60) 0.80 (0.60) 0.40 (0.30) 0.80 (0.60) 0.60 (0.45) 0.30 (0.22) 0.03 (0.02) None (smoke) 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 7.5 (5.6) 4.7 (3.5) Tier 1 Tier 4 450kW560 (600hp750) NMHC + NOX g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) 10.5 (7.8) 7.5 (5.6) --9.5 (7.1) 7.5 (5.6) --9.5 (7.1) 7.5 (5.6) 0.4 (0.3) NOx 0.19 (0.14) NMHC 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 6.6 (4.9) 4.0 (3.0) 0.4 (0.3) NOx 0.19 (0.14) NMHC 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 6.6 (4.9) Tier 4 130kW<225 (175hp<300) Model Year 2000 2005 2008 2000 2005 2008 1999 2004 2008 2013 A-1 None 3.5 (2.6) 0.20 (0.15) 3.5 (2.6) --- 0.013 (0.01) 8.5 0.54 (0.4) 3.5 (2.6) 3.5 (2.6) 0.20 (0.15) --- 0.013 (0.01) 8.5 0.54 (0.4) 3.5 (2.6) 3.5 (2.6) 0.20 (0.15) --- 0.013 (0.01) April 2014 DRAFT Engine Power kW>560 (hp>750) Tier Model Year Tier 1 2000 Tier 2 2006 Tier 4A 2011 Tier 4B 2015 NMHC + NOX g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) 9.25 (6.9) NOX 1.3 (1.0) HC 6.4 (4.8) 3.5 (2.6) NOx 0.40 (0.30) NMHC 0.67 (0.5)† 0.67 (0.5)†† 0.19 (0.14) NMHC CO g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) PM g/kW-hr (g/hp-hr) 8.5 0.54 (0.4) 3.5 (2.6) 0.20 (0.15) --- 0.10 (0.075) 0.027 / 0.40 (0.02 / 0.03)* Table A-2. Emission Factors for Combination Short Haul Trucks at an Area-wide Average Speed of 40 mph. Model Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NOx (g/mile) 33.612 33.612 25.958 23.986 23.986 23.986 23.986 23.986 23.986 23.986 21.508 15.641 15.745 15.899 15.431 8.119 8.119 8.119 8.119 4.060 4.058 4.058 1.441 1.441 1.441 1.267 1.267 0.912 0.912 0.912 0.912 PM2.5 (g/mile) 1.277 1.280 1.294 1.282 1.256 1.301 1.372 1.371 1.372 1.370 0.824 0.827 0.835 0.847 0.810 0.732 0.732 0.732 0.732 0.040 0.034 0.034 0.032 0.032 0.032 0.028 0.028 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 A-2 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-3. Model Year <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 <2000 Tier 1 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 >2000 Emission Factors for Diesel Marine Engines.67 Power and Displacement (l/cylinder) And disp. <0.9 <0.9 <0.9 <0.9 0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 2.5 ≤ disp. < 3.5 3.5 ≤ disp. < 5.0 5.0 ≤ disp. < 15 15 ≤ disp. < 20 20 ≤ disp. < 25 25 ≤ disp. < 30 And disp. <0.9 <0.9 <0.9 <0.9 0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 2.5 ≤ disp. < 3.5 3.5 ≤ disp. < 5.0 5.0 ≤ disp. < 15 15 ≤ disp. < 20 20 ≤ disp. < 25 25 ≤ disp. < 30 Power (kW) <8 <16 <37 37 or more all all all all all all all all <8 <16 <37 37 or more all all all all all all all all Emission Factor (g/kW-h)a HC CO NOx PM10 2.01 6.71 13.41 1.341 2.28 6.71 11.4 1.207 2.41 6.71 9.25 1.073 0.41 1.6 10 0.54 0.32 1.6 10 0.47 0.27 1.6 10 0.34 0.27 1.6 10 0.3 0.27 1.8 11 0.3 0.134 2.48 13.36 0.32 0.134 2.48 13.36 0.32 0.134 2.48 13.36 0.32 0.134 2.48 13.36 0.32 1.02 5.51 7.013 0.603 0.59 2.9 5.95 0.362 0.375 2.05 6.34 0.456 0.41 1.6 9.8 0.54 0.32 1.6 9.8 0.47 0.27 1.6 9.8 0.34 0.27 1.6 9.1 0.3 0.27 1.8 9.2 0.3 0.134 2.48 10.55 0.32 0.134 2.48 10.55 0.32 0.134 2.48 10.55 0.32 0.134 2.48 10.55 0.32 a - VOC and PM2.5 emissions are derived from HC and PM10 emissions as per NONROAD model (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm) 67 EPA, 2008. “Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder,” EPA420-R-08-001, March; reviewed via personal communication with Penny Carey, EPA 2011. A-3 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-4. Model Year 2005 2004 2004 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Table A-5. Power Density All EPA Tier 2 Exhaust Emission Standards for US Flagged Vessels. THC + NOx CO PM Power and Displacement (l/cylinder) g/kW-hr g/kW-hr g/kW-hr Power < 37 kW 7.5 5.0 0.40 And disp. <0.9 0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 7.2 5.0 0.30 1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 7.2 5.0 0.20 2.5 ≤ disp. < 5.0 7.2 5.0 0.20 5.0 ≤ disp. < 15 7.8 5.0 0.27 15 ≤ disp. < 20 8.7 5.0 0.50 Power <3300 kW 15 ≤ disp. < 20 9.8 5.0 0.50 Power >3300 kW 20 ≤ disp. < 25 9.8 5.0 0.50 25 ≤ disp. < 30 11.0 5.0 0.50 EPA Tier 3 Exhaust Emission Standards for US Flagged Vessels. Displacement (l/cylinder) disp. < 0.9 disp. < 0.9 0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 Engine with kW/L ≤ 35 Maximum Engine Power kW < 19 19 ≤ kW < 75 kW ≥ 75 All kW < 600 kW ≥ 600 2.5 ≤ disp. < 3.5 kW < 600 kW ≥ 600 3.5 ≤ disp.< 7.0 Engines with kW/L > 35 disp. < 0.9 0.9 ≤ disp. < 1.2 1.2 ≤ disp. < 2.5 2.5 ≤ disp. < 3.5 3.5 ≤ disp. < 7.0 7.0 ≤ disp. < 15.0 All 15.0 ≤ disp. < 20.0 20.0 ≤ disp. < 25.0 25.0 ≤ disp. < 30.0 kW < 600 kW ≥ 600 kW ≥ 75 All kW < 2000 2000 ≤ kW < 3700 kW < 2000 kW < 2000 kW < 2000 A-4 Model Year 2009+ 2009-2013 2014+ 2012+ 2013+ 2014-2017 2018+ 2014+ 2013-2017 2018+ 2013+ 2012-2017 2018+ 2012+ 2012+ 2013+ 2014+ 2013+ 2012+ 2013+ 2013+ 2014+ 2014+ 2014+ HC+NOx (g/kW-hr) 7.5 7.5 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 7.8 7.0 9.8 11.0 PM (g/kW-hr) 0.40 0.30 0.30 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.34 0.27 0.27 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-6. EPA Tier 4 Exhaust Emission Standards for US Flagged Vessels.68 Maximum Engine Power 600 ≤ kW < 1400 1400 ≤ kW < 2000 2000 ≤ kW < 3700 kW ≥ 3700 Table A-7. Year. Short Term Model Year 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 Displacement (l/cylinder) All All All disp. <15.0 15.0 ≤ disp.< 30.0 All Model Year 2017+ 2016+ 2014+ 2014-2015 2014-2015 2016+ HC (g/kW-hr) 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 NOx (g/kW-hr) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 PM (g/kW-hr) 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.12 0.25 0.06 MOVES2010a (March, 2012 MOVES) PM2.5 Idle Emission Rates (g/hr) by Model Single Unit Short Haul Long Haul 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.248 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.311 0.311 0.311 0.311 0.370 0.370 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Combination Short Haul Long Haul 0.180 0.183 0.180 0.183 0.180 0.183 0.180 0.183 0.257 0.259 0.257 0.259 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.294 0.311 0.311 0.311 0.311 0.370 0.370 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 68 Extended Idle Model Year 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 Comb. Long Haul 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.8 Code of Federal Regulations 2008. “PART 1042-CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE MARINE COMPRESSIONIGNITION ENGINES AND VESSELS,” U.S. EPA; Office of Transportation and Air Quality; Assessment and Standards Division, February 27, 2008. A-5 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-8. Year. MOVES2010a (March, 2012 MOVES) NOx Idle Emission Rates by (g/hr) Model Short term (<1 hour) by Source Type Single Single Comb. Model Year Short Haul Long Haul Short Haul 2018 4.475 4.475 5.217 2017 4.475 4.475 5.217 2016 4.475 4.475 5.217 2015 4.475 4.475 5.217 2014 6.287 6.287 7.240 2013 6.287 6.287 7.240 2012 7.361 7.361 8.213 2011 7.361 7.361 8.213 2010 7.361 7.361 8.213 2009 20.731 20.731 23.132 2008 20.731 20.731 23.132 2007 20.741 20.741 23.143 2006 41.5 41.5 46.3 2005 41.5 41.5 46.3 2004 41.5 41.5 46.3 2003 41.5 41.5 46.3 2002 95.4 95.4 120.6 2001 93.0 93.0 126.0 2000 94.0 94.0 124.2 1999 93.5 93.5 123.0 1998 99.7 99.7 99.7 1997 118.7 118.7 118.7 1996 118.7 118.7 118.7 1995 118.7 118.7 118.7 1994 118.7 118.7 118.7 1993 118.7 118.7 118.7 1992 118.7 118.7 118.7 1991 118.7 118.7 118.7 1990 126.3 126.3 126.3 1989 163.5 163.5 163.5 1988 163.5 163.5 163.5 Comb. Long Haul 5.468 5.468 5.468 5.468 7.562 7.562 8.501 8.501 8.501 23.944 23.944 23.955 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 129.1 129.5 130.6 129.6 99.7 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.7 126.3 163.5 163.5 A-6 Extended Idle Comb. Model Year Long Haul 2018 158.6 2017 158.6 2016 158.6 2015 158.6 2014 158.6 2013 158.6 2012 158.6 2011 158.6 2010 158.6 2009 158.6 2008 158.6 2007 158.7 2006 179.2 2005 179.2 2004 179.2 2003 179.2 2002 179.2 2001 179.9 2000 182.0 1999 180.2 1998 176.9 1997 178.4 1996 175.0 1995 177.7 1994 177.6 1993 168.4 1992 176.4 1991 176.1 1990 81.3 1989 87.8 1988 89.0 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-9. Emissions Factors for Retired and Replaced Passenger Cars. Model Year 1998 2012 Reduction Table A-10. 1998 2012 Reduction PM2.5 (g/mile) 0.023 0.009 0.014 VOC (g/mile) 2.750 0.184 2.566 NOx (g/mile) 3.201 0.297 2.904 PM2.5 (g/mile) 0.033 0.014 0.019 Annual Reductions for 2013 Projects (Annual miles, 11,812) Vehicles Replaced 438 passenger cars 219 passenger trucks Total grams per year Table A-12. NOx (g/mile) 1.525 0.095 1.430 Emission Factors for Retired and Replaced Passenger Trucks Model Year Table A-11. VOC (g/mile) 1.157 0.108 1.049 VOC (g) 5,427,258 6,637,801 12,065,059 NOx (g) 7,398,696 7,512,149 14,910,845 PM 2.5 (g) 72,708 49,150 121,858 Total Annual Reductions (5-year Project Life) Emission Reductions Tons per year (1-year 2013 projects)) Tons per year (5-years) VOC (tons/year) NOx (tons/year) 13.3 66.5 A-7 16.44 82.2 PM (tons/year) 0.138 0.675 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-13. Model Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Single Unit Short-haul Truck Emission Rates in 2018 (g/mile). VOC 1.070 1.093 1.111 1.137 1.086 1.122 1.116 1.116 1.123 1.136 1.106 1.451 1.441 1.459 1.417 0.859 0.859 0.859 0.859 0.072 0.070 0.070 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.038 0.038 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033 CO 3.719 3.645 3.587 3.503 3.669 3.553 3.573 3.571 3.552 3.508 3.607 4.334 4.338 4.331 4.347 3.133 3.133 3.133 3.133 0.627 0.625 0.625 0.367 0.367 0.367 0.335 0.335 0.296 0.296 0.296 0.296 NOx 15.562 15.562 12.018 11.062 11.062 11.062 11.062 11.062 11.062 11.062 10.046 5.945 5.976 5.920 6.050 4.909 4.909 4.909 4.909 2.455 2.454 2.454 0.871 0.871 0.871 0.741 0.741 0.527 0.527 0.527 0.527 PM10 0.934 0.949 0.961 0.601 0.626 0.608 0.875 0.875 0.879 0.888 0.467 0.457 0.459 0.456 0.463 0.418 0.418 0.418 0.418 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.015 0.015 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 A-8 PM2.5 0.906 0.921 0.932 0.583 0.607 0.590 0.849 0.849 0.853 0.861 0.453 0.443 0.445 0.442 0.449 0.406 0.406 0.406 0.406 0.021 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.014 0.014 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 April 2014 DRAFT Table A-14. Model Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Avg. Lifetime Table A-15. Model Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Avg. Lifetime Residential Lawn Mowers (3 – 6 Hp) Emissions (Grams/Year/Piece). Area Population (Texas) 9,590 26,850 47,188 70,723 105,386 177,641 403,844 453,633 491,023 520,757 548,703 574,259 VOC 2,299 1,405 1,368 1,344 1,319 631 623 597 588 578 566 551 3,503 Emissions (grams/year/mower) CO NOx PM2.5 18,923 138 17 9,131 115 20 9,094 114 19 9,055 113 19 9,013 112 18 7,497 71 12 7,457 70 12 7,337 66 11 7,290 65 10 7,237 63 9 7,173 61 8 7,090 58 7 43,585 383 58 Residential Leaf Blowers (1 – 3 Hp) Emissions (Grams/Year/Piece). Area Population (Texas) 0 3,189 9,741 17,830 30,880 96,885 116,482 128,201 137,364 145,290 VOC 1,190 1,036 1,036 934 934 956 938 876 813 745 4,329 CO 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,349 3,166 2,962 2,718 15,596 A-9 NOx 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 137 PM2.5 106 106 106 106 106 106 104 98 93 87 488