Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 INTRODUCTION This paper will analyse the case of automobile safety standards by applying the theories of tipping points by Vormedal (2012) and neo-pluralism by Falkner (2010). The automobile industry is especially interesting, as it has experienced a regulatory race to the top and because business power had particular role in this development. To uncover the structures of global automobile safety governance, this paper will revolve around the research question: “How can the change in automobile safety regulation be explained and what role did the automobile business have in this process?” The paper will first present the two theories, then it will apply the theories to analyse and discuss the case of automobile safety regulation, and thirdly, it will reflect on and assess the theories’ strength and weaknesses in relation to the case. The paper will lastly conclude on the study and present a clear answer to the research question. The paper will focus on the role of business and it will not analyse the role of other actors, which could act as countervailing forces to limit business power. It will furthermore not include other companies than the automobile companies, and it will focus on the American and European automobile producers. Lastly, it will not discuss the relationship between EC DG III and the UN WP29, and it will assume that both institutions represent the European interests. THEORY The tipping point framework is developed by Irja Vormedal (2012). It describes the process that leads to political and institutional change. It builds on the understanding that strategies and preferences are driven by perceptions of risks and opportunities, and it focuses on the interplay between states and markets (Vormedal 2012, p. 261). It is not a coherent theory, as it does not describe any causal relations that are able to explain the tipping points. However, it does provide some useful theoretical concepts and drivers for business strategies and it provides some theoretical tools for examining important phases of history, which leads to change in international regulation. The framework is well suited to the automobile safety case as this is a case where business had to reconsider their strategies due to anticipated regulatory risks and opportunities, and where international safety regulation went through some major changes. 1 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 The tipping point framework is complemented by Falkner’s neo-pluralistic theory (2010). Neo-pluralism perceives politics as a competition between different groups where business has a privileged role. Business is more important than other groups as for example NGOs because business provides investments, economic growth, innovation and employment and thus creates the foundation of society’s wellbeing (Falkner 2010, p. 101). However its power is limited by countervailing forces and business conflicts. These conflicts can come from national, technological, regulatory differences and many more. The result of these factors is that business unity is contingent and business dynamics such as changing strategies affect the outcome of policy processes and makes it very open-ended process. Falkner’s theory is overall a good analytical tool to uncover the role of business in the process of increased automobile safety regulation and it thus complements Vormedal in uncovering the role of business in the tipping point framework. THE AUTOMOBILE CASE FIRST TIPPING POINT In Europe in 1953 the Working Party 29 was created as a mean to achieve increased competition in Europe (Braithwaite and Drahos1 2000, p. 438). The initial goal of the institution was not to increase safety in automobiles but as the discourse changed so did its goals. In 1966 Ralph Nader published a report called “Unsafe at any speed” (B&D 2000, p. 438). This report highlighted the serious problems with automobile safety and the many deaths that could have been avoided if only regulators had established safety regulations for automobiles. Nader’s report had widespread consequences, and the report established the first tipping point in the development of automobile safety regulations. It changed the discourse and a new regulatory pattern began to develop. Before this tipping point, the automobile industry was against regulation. Nevertheless, the business anticipated a regulatory change that could have costly consequences for the industry. Negative consumer reactions were massive, extraordinarily differences in national regulation could be costly as the economies of 1 Will be referred to as B&D in the rest of this paper 2 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 scale are big in the automobile industry, and some companies such as the Swedish car manufacturer Volvo could gain a competitive advantage as Sweden already had high safety regulation (B&D 2000, pp. 443-444). As the tipping point framework points out, the regulatory risks and uncertainties made business react to the change in discourse. BUSINESS POWER As neo-pluralism predicts, the automobile industry had a privileged position in the process of global regulation on safety issues and the industry leaders had a direct access to regulators. American and European automobile producers took advantage of this through NIITSA and EC DG III, and politicians embraced their interests and facilitated the role of business. The automobile companies had a privileged position for many reasons. Firstly, they had the expertise and knowledge that the institutions did not. The International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers even wrote complete texts and drafts for European regulation (B&D 2000, p. 446). Secondly, the automobile industry had structural economic power in terms of employment, GDP and trade. Thirdly, the automobile industry was an important policy entrepreneur as it was able to develop ideas and solutions to safety problems, and fourthly, especially in Europe, the DG III did not have enough resources to create regulation on their own and they were therefore dependent on company resources (B&D 2000, p. 451). Consequently, the institutional capacity was low. The automobile industry was well aware of their privileged position and because they anticipated new regulatory risks and threats due to the first tipping point, they wanted to exploit their power to shape international safety regulation as much as possible. The industry therefore changed its strategy and began to lobby in favour of international automobile safety standards. BUSINESS CONFLICT AND NEW BUSINESS STRATEGIES The automobile industry was not a united force and different companies supported different kind of regulation. Consequently, the tipping point revealed a business conflict between European and American businesses. The main source of this business conflict was different regional regulatory traditions where Europe has a Rhenish regulatory 3 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 tradition and US an Anglo-Saxon tradition (Wigger & Nölke2 2007, pp. 490-495). According to Wigger and Nölke (2007), the Rhenish model is embedded in the civil law tradition where legislators design detailed regulatory frameworks and the judiciaries have no need for interpretation. The European philosophy is that the market cannot be self-regulatory because of market failures that harm society. The European tradition thus calls for balanced interventionist strategy. At the same time the Anglo-Saxon model is embedded in the common law tradition in the US. Regulation is abstract and allows for interpretation by judiciaries. It allows for much private enforcement and state intervention comes at the cost of market efficiency. Thus US and Europe differs in the way the enforce regulation. Europe has ex ante authorisation and US has ex post enforcement (W&N 2007, pp. 494-495). Therefore the European automobile companies have adapted to a regulatory framework that sets clear rules for business behaviour while the US companies are used to a system that allows business to enforce the rules but with the possibility of ex post enforcement by the state. So when the automobile industry changed is regulatory strategy, there was a business conflict between European and American producers on how to shape international regulation. In the long run all producers would be able to adapt to new regulation but in the short-run some companies could have a competitive advantage if they already knew how to navigate in the regulatory system. Nevertheless, having two institutional arenas, NIITSA and EC DG III, for automobile safety regulation moderated the business conflict. THE SECOND TIPPING POINT The tipping point that changed the pattern of international regulation was mainly due to the new business strategies and the emergence of a new framework that allowed for global harmonisation of safety regulation. The automobile producers executed their strategies by heavily lobbying the institutions. In US, the automobile companies lobbied at NIITSA and in Europe, they lobbied at EC DG III. The CEOs had direct access to powerful national legislators because of the companies’ privileged positions and this made it relatively easy for the companies to implement their regulatory strategies (B&D 2 Will be referred to as W&N in the rest of this paper 4 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 2000, p. 444). The automobile companies’ new business strategies had huge influence on international regulation and the strategies were the main drivers for the second tipping point. The outcome of the second tipping point was two different types of legislation developed by DG III and WP29, and NIITSA (B&D 2000, p. 439-442). NIITSA employed self-certification and recalls if the cars did not comply with the safety standards. DG III and WP29 employed type approval and mutual recognition. This means that in the US, NIITSA decides on regulations and then allows the producers to self-reinforce the safety standards and demands a recall if a car does not comply with the standards, while in Europe, EC DG III and WP29 decide on regulation and approve models in accordance with regulation. This type approval should then be recognised by the other member countries and discrimination is not allowed. These two systems thus reflect the business conflict between two different regulatory traditions. Albeit, the business conflict created this divide, the automobile industry was in urgent need of global harmonised safety rules. The economies of scale were huge and the automobile supply chain was globally integrated, so the cost of local safety legislation could be massive. As the neo-pluralistic theory argues, “business actors will seek to minimize differences and tensions between them in their efforts to shape international political outcomes” (Falkner 2010, p. 103). At the same time, institutions were compromise seeking and there was an important US-ECE dialogue to facilitate adjustments. The outcome of these processes was harmonisation in content but not in enforcement, which meant that companies had to comply with the same safety standards but with different modes of enforcements (B&D 2000, p. 440). The harmonisation in content was materialised through the Best Available Technology (BAT) philosophy and the move from specification standards to performance standards, which both were adopted by the EC DG III and WP29, and NIITSA (B&D 2000, p. 440). Consequently, a new international regulatory framework was established. 5 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 NEW INTERNATIONAL AUTOMOBILE SAFETY REGULATION The new regulatory framework was founded upon performance standards and BAT (B&D 2000, p. 440). Regulation in terms of performance standards meant that regulators did not care about the technical details, only about the outcome. An example could be safety standards for brakes. The requirement was that the breaks were able to stop the car within a certain amount of meters and not how the brakes would technically stop the car. The BAT demands that the best available technology set the standard. Together, the performance standards and the BAT have created a regulatory system that “mandates the level of performance achieved by the best technology that is economically feasible” (B&D 2000, p. 440). EC DG III and WP29, and NIITSA changed their safety standards so the standards fulfil this criterion, and the different minimum and maximum values were changed to allow for an overlap, thus creating global automobile safety standards (B&D 2000, p. 440). This new global regulatory framework had a great effect on the business dynamics of the automobile industry, as the BAT became a strategic trade game (B&D 2000, p. 448). Companies lobby for their own safety innovations because if a company can set the standard, it will have a competitive advantage over the other car producers who have to follow the new standard. The new mode of safety regulation has therefore created a business conflict where the source of the conflict is between technology leaders and laggards. This new business conflict has created threats and opportunities for automobile companies, and it might be that this conflict will lead to new changes in safety regulation. THEORY REFLECTIONS Falkner’s neo-pluralistic theory and Vormedal’s tipping point model both have strengths and weaknesses and these have implication for the theories’ applicability and ability to explain the case of automobile safety standards. Consequently, there are some limitations to the two theories. This section will first address the tipping point framework, then neo-pluralism, and lastly it will shortly discuss the complementarity of the two theories. 6 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 THE TIPPING POINT FRAMEWORK The tipping point framework by Vormedal (2012) has many strengths and weaknesses. It is a strong conceptual framework as it has developed a model to describe how the interplay between business strategy formation and international governance can generate a change in international automobile safety regulatory, and in this way “it adds to our understanding of how business strategies are constructed and re-constructed” in international governance (Vormedal 2011, p. 33). The framework points out the important historical phases that create the tipping points, which lead to international regulation. However in relation to this, the tipping point model does not consider the possible negative feedback mechanisms that may hinder the process and the development of new international regulation. The mechanisms may include other actors such as the automobile industry organisation that favoured liberalisation, or as the case showed, there can be internal business conflicts that functioned as negative feedback mechanisms. Furthermore, the framework lacks causal relations that explain the tipping points. Even though it points out that tipping points may be driven by regulatory risks and uncertainties, uneven playing fields, and new market opportunities, it does not analyse these mechanisms thoroughly. Companies face regulatory risk and opportunities all the time but how important or severe do they need to be for companies to change their regulatory strategy. The tipping point framework is thus not able to predict future tipping points in the automobile industry, as the causal factors are not examined. In relation to the tipping points, the framework includes an important dimension of constructivism. This allows the framework to analyse the automobile safety case before changes in international regulation are implemented but where ideas about changes are in play. In this way, the framework notices and acknowledges tendencies that other frameworks might neglect. The tipping point framework furthermore relates the change in discourses to the materialisation of tipping points through changing business strategies. Yet, it does not consider how the tipping point and materialisation is transferred into the political sphere of NIITSA, EC DG III and WP29 and how this caused long-term changes in international regulation (Vormedal 2011, pp. 37-38). 7 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 So even though the tipping point framework is a dynamic framework that is able to analyse the interplay between business strategies and international governance and capture the important process of changing business strategies, it lacks negative feedback mechanisms and clear causal variables that are able to explain when there will be a tipping point and when there will not be, and it furthermore does not consider the materialisation of tipping points in the political arena. NEO-PLURALISM Compared to the tipping point model, neo-pluralism is a broader concept, which is not trying to describe any causal variables but rather the role of business in international governance. Its main strength is that it reflects the reality of automobile safety regulation. Falkner has rightly noticed that pluralism was out-dated and did not describe the current world. Neo-pluralism recognises the privileged role of the automobile companies and justifies it by stating that “the well-being of society of society and the economy depends on investments, innovation, economic growth and employment” (Ougaard 2013, p. 7). On the basis of this Falkner concludes that there is no inherent conflict between business and society (Ougaard, 2013, p. 7), however, this conclusion is flawed. The major implication is that according to this statement, what the automobile companies find in their interest is also in the interest of society. Business interest is common interest. However, this is defiantly not always true. Before the change in discourse, the first tipping point, the automobile industry did not consider increased safety regulation as in their interests even though it was the interest of society, as fewer citizens would be killed on the roads. One need to remember that the goal of business is profit maximisation and you could argue that the only reason for the automobile business to change strategy was because they anticipated future costs if regulation became too strict or favoured competitors. The assumption about common interest also leaves out the role of political bargaining where governments may have different interests than the industry, and as a consequence of this, my study did not reveal the power struggles of the political bargaining process. Falkner’s neo-pluralism entails some sub-concepts that helped analyse the role of business. The concept of business conflict challenges previous literature that portrays 8 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 business as one united actor. The consequence will then be incomplete research, which may produce the wrong conclusions. If the concept of business conflict is employed, it will add new perspectives and highlight the struggle between businesses, which is of high importance in relation to the outcome of international regulation. Yet, Falkner does not address business conflicts more thoroughly and he thus overlooks some very important mechanisms of conflicts. For a conflict to exists there need to be power. Thus power must be at the centre of a business conflict analysis. This is highly important as it will determine whether the conflict will be settle and what the outcome will be. Consequently, Falkner’s neo-pluralism needs to address power struggles within business to fully take advantage of the usefulness of business conflict as an analytical concept. One could tackle this problem by adding Fuch’s three types of business power (2007). COMPLEMENTARITY OF THE TWO THEORIES When the tipping point framework and neo-pluralism are combined, they make up for some of their own weaknesses and this strengthen their applicability to the automobile safety case. The tipping model does not explain why business played an important role in developing international automobile safety regulation and why the second tipping point created two different systems with different modes of regulation. Neo-pluralism thus complements the tipping point framework by explaining these dynamics by the use of business’ privileged role and a business conflict between Europe and US based on different regional traditions in regulation. On the other hand, neo-pluralism is not able to explain the creation and change in international regulation, and it does not discuss the effects of anticipated regulatory pressure, as the tipping point framework’s dynamic feature gives important insight to. Nevertheless, there are still many limitations of this combination and it still cannot uncover the power relations and power games that exist between business and other actors, especially government. Thus it is not able to explain why business needed to change their strategies and how great the limitations to business power were. 9 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 CONCLUSION This paper has analysed the case of automobile safety by applying Vormedal’s (2012) tipping point framework together with Falkner’s theoretical concept of neo-pluralism. The change in automobile safety regulation can be explained as a dynamic process with two tipping points. The first changed the automobile safety discourse and it came about because of a report that criticised the automobile industry for not producing safe enough cars. The automobile business anticipated regulatory risks and they changed their business strategies in favour of legislation. Since the business had a privileged position in society, they were able to influence regulation. However, a business conflict between American and European companies lead to two different modes of legislation, as American companies lobbied heavily at NIITSA and the European at EC DG III. The companies were able to influence regulation because they had an important role in the policy-making process as they had knowledge and expertise, strong structural economic power, the role as a policy entrepreneurs and in Europe, the companies were able to solve the problem of low institutional capacity. However, the divide in regulation created an uneven playing field that did not satisfy the automobile industry. The automobile companies used their power to create the second tipping point and found a way to minimise the business conflict, and due to a good US-Europe dialogue, each system of regulation was modified to allow for harmonisation in content but with two different modes of enforcement. Consequently, the combination of the two theories reveals important insights of business power and the dynamic relation between business and global governance that lead to a race to the top in international automobile safety regulation. However, the combination of the two theories were not able to uncover the power struggles of the process, and the study did not include an analysis of other possible powerful actors; governments, consumer groups and so, and this needs to be investigated to completely understand the development. 10 Business and Global Governance Spring 2013 BIBLIOGRAPHY BRAITHWAITE and DRAHOS (2000) “Road Transport”, Chapter 18 in Global Business Regulation, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press 2000. FALKNER, R. (2010) “A Neo-Pluralist Perspective on Business Power in Global Environmental Governance”. In Ougaard & Leander (eds.): Business and Global Governance. United Kingdom: Routledge FUCHS, D. (2007) “Business as an Actor in Global Governance”, Chapter 3, pp. 4370 in Understanding Business Power in Global Governance, Boulder & London: Lynne Rienner OUGAARD, M. 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