AP Statistics: Part 3 Exam Breakdown Exam breakdown: Chapters 11-13 Day 1 o o Day 2 o o (Tuesday, December 9th) Ten Multiple Choice Questions Six Short Answer Questions (Wednesday, December 10th) 2 AP Multiple Choice Questions 2 AP Free Response Questions Topics to be reviewed: Randomness and Simulation (Ch. 11): o Vocabulary to know: Random, generating random numbers, simulation, trial, response variable o Know how to: assign random digits, describe how you would run a simulation in detail, perform a simulation on a list of random digits, make a conclusion based on your simulation Surveys and Bias (Ch. 12): o Vocabulary to know: Population, sample, sampling frame, randomization, census, simple random sample, stratified random sample, cluster sample, multistage sample, systematic sample, convenience sample, voluntary response bias, nonresponse bias, response bias, undercoverage, population parameter, sample statistic o Be able to recognize the different types of surveys and distinguish them from one another o Know the difference between response bias, nonresponse bias, and voluntary response bias o Bias: It results from a sampling method likely to produce samples that do not represent the population Randomization helps reduce bias Increasing the sample size does NOT reduce bias o Statistics are from a set of sampled data, parameters are a numerically valued attribute of a model for a population Observation Studies and Experiments (Ch. 13): o Vocabulary to know: Observational study, retrospective study, prospective study, experiment, factor, level, treatment, response, statistically significant, control group, blinding, placebo, placebo effect, blocking matching, confounding o Know the difference between an observational study and an experiment and be able to pick out which is which in a given scenario o Be able to identify the factors, treatments, and response variable in a given experiment o Know how to explain statistically significant in the context of a given experiment o o o Two main classes of individual who can affect the outcome of an experiment Those who could influence the results (subjects, treatment administrators, etc.) Those who evaluate the results (judges, physicians, researchers, etc.) If one of those two classes don’t know who received the placebo/treatment then the experiment is single-blind. If both classes don’t know then the experiment is double-blind Know when blocking is appropriate Designing a good experiment: Control aspects of the experiment that we know may have an effect on the response Randomize subjects to treatments to even out effects that we cannot control – the subjects don’t need to be randomly chosen, just assigning them to the treatments Replicate over as many subjects as possible Block to reduce the effects of identifiable attributes of the subjects that cannot be controlled Example Multiple Choice Questions 1. A company sponsoring a new internet search engine wants to collect data on the ease of using it. Which is the best way to collect the data? a. Census b. Sample survey c. Observational study d. Experiment e. Simulation 2. The January 2005 Gallup Youth Survey telephone a random sample of 1,028 US teens and asked these teens to name their favorite movie from 2004. “Napoleon Dynamite” had the highest percentage with 8% of teens ranking it as their favorite movie. Which is true? I. The population of interest is all US teens II. 8% is a statistic and not the actual percentage of all US teens who would rank this movie as their favorite III. This sampling design should provide a reasonably accurate estimate of the actual percentage of all US teens who would rank this movie as their favorite a. I only b. II only c. III only d. I and II e. I, II, and III 3. Suppose your local school district decides to randomly test high school students for ADD. There are three high schools in the district, each with grades 9-12. The school board pools all of the students together and randomly samples 250 students. Is this a simple random sample? a. Yes, because the students were chosen at random. b. Yes, because each student is equally likely to be chosen. c. Yes, because they could have chosen any 250 students from throughout the district. d. No, because we can’t guarantee that there are students from each school in the sample. e. No, because we can’t guarantee that there are students from each grade in the sample. 4. A basketball players has a 70% free throw percentage. Which plan could be used to simulate the number of free throws she will make in her next five free throw attempts? I. Let 0, 1represent making the first shot, 2, 3 represent making the second shot, …, 8, 9 represent making the fifth shot. Generate five random numbers 0-9, ignoring repeats. II. Let 0, 1, 2 represent missing a shot and 3, 4, …, 9 represent making a shot. Generate five random numbers 0-9 and count how many numbers are in 3-9. III. Let 0, 1, 2 represent missing a shot and 3, 4, …, 9 represent making a shot. Generate five random numbers 0-9 and count how many numbers are in 3-9, ignoring repeats. a. I only b. II only c. III only d. II and III e. I, II, and III 5. More dogs are being diagnosed with thyroid problems than have been diagnosed in the past. A researcher identified 50 puppies without thyroid problems and kept records of their diets for several years to see if any developed thyroid problems. This is a(n): a. Randomized experiment b. Survey c. Prospective study d. Retrospective study e. Blocked experiment 6. A chemistry professor who teaches a large lecture class survey his students who attend his class about how he can make the class more interesting, hoping he can get more students to attend. This survey method suffers from: a. Voluntary response bias b. Nonresponse bias c. Response bias d. Undercoverage e. None of the above 7. Placebos are a tool for: a. Sampling b. Blocking c. Blinding d. Control e. Randomization 8. Double-blinding in experiments is important so that: I. The evaluators do not know which treatment group the participants are in. II. The participants do not know which treatment group they are in III. No one knows which treatment any of the participants are getting a. I only b. II only c. III only d. I and II e. I, II, and III 9. Which of the following is NOT required in an experimental design: a. Blocking b. Control c. Randomization d. Replication e. All are required in an experimental design 10. Which statement is true about bias? I. Bias results from a random variation and will always be present II. Bias results from a sampling method likely to produce samples that do not represent the population III. Bias is usually reduced when sample size is larger a. I only b. II only c. III only d. I and III e. II and III Example Short Answer Questions 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Part II Review Book Problems Directly after the chapter 13 book problems, your textbook contains the Part III Review problems. The complete solutions to ALL of these problems can be found under the “Part III” tab on the class website: www.myhaikuclass.com/hjhunt/apstats. It is on the side of the page called “Part III Review Book Solutions”. Here is a breakdown of the problems and what content each covers. Please focus on the material that you feel you need the most help/practice in. It’s a good idea to hit each concept but to practice the content you struggle most with, even more. AP Questions Please refer to the FRAPPY problems from the past few weeks to study for that portion of the test. The complete solutions to these free response questions is also located on the class website under the “AP Practice” tab on the left side of the website. If you know the content for chapters 11-13 and can write in context and in full sentences, you will be fine on the AP free response questions. The AP multiple choice questions are similar to the multiple choice questions provided on previous pages as well. Example Multiple Choice Questions – Solutions 1) B 2) E 3) C 4) B 5) C 6) D 7) C 8) D 9) A 10) B