ET-ASC WORKPLAN
Joint ET-ASC/ET-ISA/Doc. 3/ANNEX 1
TEAM
Commission
WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)
Expert Team on
Aviation, Science and Climate
Start Date / End
Date
1/10/2014
Stakeholders
CAeM MG, VASAG, CAS, CBS, ICAO MET Panel
June 2018
Team
Name
Organization / Country
Chair / Co-chairs
Herbert PUEMPEL
Austrocontrol, Austria
herbert.puempel@austrocontrol.at
Core Members
Cory DAVIS
Robert RUTLEDGE
Ping Wah LI
MetService, New Zealand
NOAA, USA
Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong,
China
Tanzania Meteorological Agency,
Tanzania
Roshydromet, Russian Federation
Met Office, United Kingdom
Cory.davis@metservice.com
robert.rutledge@noaa.gov
pwli@hko.gov.hk
Pascal WANIHA
Anna IVANOVA
Matthew HORT
E-mail
Pascal.waniha@meteo.go.tz
ivanova@mecom.ru
Matthew.hort@metoffice.gov.uk
DESCRIPTION
Objective
Transfer from Science to Operations in areas of High-Impact weather, climate change and variability,
aviation-centered Nowcasting &VSRF, Validation of methodologies, Cooperation with GFCS, CAS and
CBS, Support to ICAO Met Panel for Roadmaps and Conops in coordination with ET-ISA, under guidance
from CAeM MG. Theme leaders within the group will be responsible for specific issues.
Background
Newly established team, applied science focus, cooperation with NMHS and Research groups, GFCS,
CAS, CBS, benefiting from VASAG experience.
Terms of
Reference
a) To deal with issues of research and development related to road maps and concepts of operations for,
inter alia, the World Area Forecast System, the International Airways Volcano Watch, and space
weather, in close collaboration with the Inter-programme Coordination Team on Space Weather and
the WMO-IUGG Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group;
b) To coordinate research and development activities in the area of nowcasting and very short-range
forecasting in collaboration with the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences;
c) To address issues related to the impacts of climate change and variability on aviation, including
seasonal and interannual changes, in coordination with relevant bodies and programmes such as the
Global Framework for Climate Services, the Global Dataprocessing and Forecasting System and the
ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection;
d) To coordinate research and development activities related to observing systems, including the
detection and quantification of volcanic ash, lightning, wind shear and wake vortex conditions, in
collaboration with relevant subsidiary bodies of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of
Observation and the Commission for Basic Systems;
e) To report regularly on progress to the president of the Commission.
ET-ASC - Work Plan, Final-v02
Page 1 of 5
COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES
Description
Target Audience
Delivery Method
Frequency / Date
Work Plan
Management Group
Mail, AeM Web site
6 monthly
Chair
General
correspondence
Partners
&Stakeholders
Mail
As appropriate
Chair, Theme
leaders
Team Meetings
Combined with
scientific workshops
In collaboration with
partners
If possible yearly
Chair, Theme
leaders
Reports
Following scientific
Workshops (general
audience), for MG
meetings
Mail, Web site
As appropriate
Chair, Theme
leaders
Final Report
CAeM-16
CAeM Doc.
1 x inter-sessional period
Chair
ET-ASC - Work Plan, Final-v02
Responsibility
Page 2 of 5
ET-ASC WORKPLAN
MILESTONES / WORKPLAN
Milestone / Activity / Task
ACTIVITY 1:
ET
TOR(s)
Accountability
Deliverables
Dates
INTEGRATION OF A/C WIND OBSERVATIONS, WXR AND SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUDINESS INTO REQUENTLY UPDATED HR LOCAL/SUB-REGIONAL
NUMERICAL MODELS
Milestone 1.1: Validation of AMDAR/ADS-B(C), Doppler winds,
3dWXR data
Theme leader
End 2015
Task 1.1:
AMDAR data for enlarged TMA
Theme leader with help from
CBS
Mid 2015
Task 1.2:
ADS-B vs ADS-C
Theme leader with help from
CBS
End 2015
Task 1.3: WXR Doppler winds and volume rainfall data
Theme leader with help from
CBS, SESAR 11.2
End 2015
Milestone 1.2: Validation of frequently updated HR models with
data ingest
Theme leader, Chair with
help from CAS WG
End 2016
Task 1.1: Identify suitable AMSP preferably within SESAR or
similar ATM project to obtain data sets
Chair, Theme Leader
Q1 2015
Task 1.2: Obtain validation results from partner AMSP in close
cooperation with CAS and ET-ISA
Theme Leader
Q1 2016
ACTIVITY 2:
ADDRESSING THE TRANSITION FROM TRADITIONAL NOWCASTING TIME-RANGE (<2HRS) TO NWP-VSRF
Milestone 2.1: Identify limits ( in terms of time and predictability)
of traditional nowcasting of aviation-specific parameters and
hazards
Theme Leader and Chair,
help from CAS
Q2 2015
Task 2.1: Work by correspondence with relevant CAS ET´s and
the scientific community
Theme Leader and Chair,
help from CAS
Q1 2015
Task 2.2: Work by correspondence with WG on Numerical
Experimentation (or follow-up WG)
Theme Leader and Chair,
help from CAS
Q1 2015
Task 2.3: Define suitable time ranges for prediction of priority
hazards
Theme Leader , Chair
Q3 2015
Milestone 3.1: Design a Composite Forecast System including
transition period
Chair, Theme Leader
End 2017
Task 3.1: Identify suitable modeling solutions with help from CAS,
WG on NE
Chair, Theme Leader
Mid 2015
ACTIVITY 3:
Status
COMPOSITE FORECAST SYSTEM
ET-ASC - Work Plan, Final-v02
Page 3 of 5
OPEN
Task 3.2: Identify workable transition method from Nowcast to
NWP
Theme Leader
Mid 2016
Task 3.3: Develop Concept of Operations for Transition and
Integration in $D WX Data
Chair, Team (In coordination
with ICAO Met Panel, ETISA)
Mid 2017
(depending on
ICAO progress)
ACTIVITY 4:
VALIDATION AND USE CASES FOR PROBABILISTIC MODEL OUTPUT
Milestone 4.1: Identify valid probabilistic forecast schemes (from
SESAR, CAS etc), relevant validation methodology
Theme Leader, Chair,
relevant WMO WG
End 2015
Task 4.1: Test scheme for impact correlation with stakeholders,
HMI experts and Human Factors experts
Theme Leader, Chair,
Team, ICAO Panel, SESAR
Mid 2016-Early
2017
ACTIVITY 5:
SUPPORT TO THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTS AND WARNINGS OF HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS
Milestone 5.1: Interaction with VASAG , CAS, S&D storms,
/aerosol modeling on development of integrated models ( including
analysis of quantified ash loading) , including volcanology
Team and Chair in
cooperation with CAS,
WAFS, SESAR, NextGen
Mid-End 2017
Milestone 5.2: Cooperation with other scientific bodies and ICAO
in prediction of transport and dissipation of hazardous aerososols
(chemical/nuclear events)
Team and Chair in
cooperation with CAS,
WAFS, SESAR, NextGen
Mid-End 2017
Milestone 5.3: Cooperation with scientific bodies and ICAO in
improved TC track & intensity forecasts
Team and Chair in
cooperation with CAS,
WAFS, SESAR, NextGen
Mid-End 2017
Milestone 5.4: Cooperation with WMO (ICTSW) and ICAO on
Space Weather Concept of Operations (ToR, expectation
management for global/regional centers)
Team and Chair in
cooperation with CAS,
WAFS, SESAR, NextGen
Mid-End 2017
Milestone 5.5: In cooperation with WAFS, SESAR, NextGen etc.
validate and improve forecasts of High Level Engine Icing, severe
Turbulence (including mountain, CB induced)
Team and Chair in
cooperation with CAS,
WAFS, SESAR, NextGen
Mid-End 2017
Tasks to be detailed in cooperation with partners.
ACTIVITY 6:
DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT SCENARIOS FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATES AND REGIONS
Milestone 6.1: Climate scenarios and their long-term impact (
demand, design of ground infrastructure, operating concepts)
ET-ASC - Work Plan, Final-v02
Chair, Theme Leader
Page 4 of 5
Mid 2016
Milestone 6.2: Development of high-impact weather scenarios
driven or amplified by climate change and variability in different
climate zones
Chair, Theme Leader
Task 6.1: Develop close ties to relevant scientific community
ACTIVITY 7:
COOPERATION WITH CBS
Milestone 7.1: Cooperation on issues of RRR (rolling review of
requirements for data, including aspects of quality, availability,
fitness-for-purpose, representativity)
Tasks 7.1: on demand
ET-ASC - Work Plan, Final-v02
Page 5 of 5
Mid 2016-early
2017