68887 v4
GDLN Seminar on Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific
Summary of October 25, 2010, Video Conference
It Is Not Too Late: Preparing For East Asia’s Next Big Earthquake
Speakers:
 Mr. Peter I. Yanev (Senior Consultant of the World Bank, President of EQRM International Inc.)
Peter Yanev <peter@yanev.com>
 Prof. Pan Tso-Chien (Founding Director of ICRM; Dean of College of Engineering and Director of the
Institute of Catastrophe Management, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Nanyang
Technological University, Singapore)
TCPan@pmail.ntu.edu.sg
Main moderator:
 Mr. Abhas K. Jha (Regional Coordinator, Disaster Risk Management, East Asia and the Pacific, The
World Bank)
Key topics discussed:
1. The Vulnerability of the Asia-Pacific Region to Earthquakes
2. Impacts and Patterns of Past Earthquakes
3. The Need of Earthquake Risk Scenarios
4. Challenges of Efficient Earthquake Risk Reduction
Executive Summary
This seminar on Disaster Risk Management in East Asia and the Pacific focused on the likelihood of
earthquakes in this region and how earthquake risks can be effectively addressed and reduced. Different
experiences from lessons learned particularly from Turkey, Indonesia, Chile, and California (United States)
provided valuable insights about the challenges in the process of earthquake risk reduction. Key findings are
as follows:
 Firstly, the combination of ongoing urbanisation in East-Asia and the natural setting in one of the
most active seismic regions on the Earth are lifting the level of earthquake risk and expected losses
(human lives and infrastructures) from a potential earthquake in this region.
 Secondly, the vulnerability of buildings is not only limited to the structural character (frame of
building), but is also largely influenced by their non-structural parts which often are not secured
sufficiently against earthquakes. The patterns of destruction from earthquakes are varying for
different objects, for example, schools are by their nature more vulnerable than other buildings
because of their large-sized rooms.
 Thirdly, well-designed earthquake risk scenarios and hazard maps are crucial and needed for
effective earthquake risk reduction; however, the challenges are how to set adequate seismic
standards in building codes for infrastructures in areas where few earthquakes have struck in the
past.
 Finally, building codes need to be developed and/or updated and properly implemented in many
parts in the Asia-Pacific region; additionally, retrofitting measures for all types of infrastructures,
disaster education, transfer of knowledge and capacity-building are key recommendations for
effective earthquake risk reduction.
1
Summary
1. The Vulnerability of the Asia-Pacific Region to Earthquakes
It was highlighted during this seminar that on only 12 percent of the Earth’s surface (both sea and land) 85
percent of the earthquakes are predicted to occur, and most of the earthquake prone areas are located in
the Asia-Pacific region. However, the combination of earthquake risk and ongoing urbanisation is
particularly challenging the livelihood of people located in cities in East-Asia. As a result of the economic
growth in this region, the development of new infrastructures leads to exacerbating problems in seismic
risk management.
Several examples from historical and recent events of earthquakes along the Sumatra subduction were
presented to exemplify impacts and vulnerability of this natural hazard on Sumatra, Indonesia, but also the
650km far away located country of Singapore. Further evidences of destructive past earthquakes in other
parts of Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Japan, the west coast of the United States, and Chile indicated
the high risk potential of earthquakes in the entire Asia-Pacific region.
2. Impacts and Patterns of Past Earthquakes
While large parts of the Asia-Pacific are naturally vulnerable to earthquakes, the pattern and the extent of
destruction from such events depends on how buildings and infrastructures were constructed, and whether
they meet the requirements to be fully earthquake resistant. For example, the recently occurred high
magnitude (M. 8.8) earthquake in Chile (2010) revealed that the widely adopted confined-masonry type of
building structure prevented many houses from collapsing and saved human lives.
The importance of well designed building codes was emphasized during the seminar; however, it was
pointed out that the non-structural part (interior fitting and equipment of building/facility) of buildings is
often neglected or not taken into account at all to be developed earthquake resistant. This was criticized as
usually only 15 percent of the total building cost accounts to the structural part and the remaining part
belongs to the non-structural interior fitting of a building. In an example from the Northridge earthquake
(M. 6.6) in 1994 in California, serious damages affected only the interior and costly equipment of a largesized hospital in the affected area. The consequences of improper earthquake resistant design for the nonstructural part of buildings are not only the loss of equipment, but also result in making the use and
occupation of affected buildings impossible, as ceilings, cables, pipes, etc. need to be fixed or replaced.
As the simple existence of well designed building codes is not sufficient, their proper implementation is
crucial for reducing earthquake risks. For example, in the Izmit earthquake (M. 7.4) in Turkey in 1999, the
lack of enforcement of building codes by the authorities resulted in large damages on buildings which could
have been avoided if the codes would have been implemented correctly.
The specific vulnerability of schools, which by their nature have large rooms, making them structurally less
earthquake resistant, is regarded as an imminent problem to be addressed adequately in all earthquake
prone areas. For example, the Sichuan earthquake (M. 8.0) in China in 2008 led many schools to collapse
while other buildings were less affected.
3. The Need of Earthquake Risk Scenarios
It was made clear during the seminar that risk assessments (including cost-benefit analysis) providing risk
scenarios and hazard maps are crucial to be performed in earthquake prone areas. However, one key
2
challenge is the right and combined use of deterministic and probabilistic methods to forecast the intensity
and probability of a future event in a selected area. Although, probabilistic methods (use records from past
events) are regarded as viable for developing risk scenarios, they may not be adequate in the design of
buildings codes because they are not capable to forecast the intensity of a potential event. For example,
the building codes in Seattle, United States, are designed at lower seismic standards compared to California
just because of the lower probability of an earthquake event in this region. However, in case of an
earthquake the intensity is likely to be the same than in California. As a result, deterministic risk analysis is
required to address the intensity of a potential earthquake in the building codes, in order to reduce the risk
of damages particularly on high-rise buildings. The recent earthquake in Christchurch (2010), New Zealand,
demonstrated that a purely probabilistic type of risk assessment is not sufficient for determining seismic
standards in building codes.
Risk scenarios and hazard maps can also be developed by a more simple visual assessment undertaken by
an experienced engineer who is simply walking through a selected area. It was mentioned during the
seminar that up to 90 percent of all types of buildings can be visually assessed.
4. Challenges of Efficient Earthquake Risk Reduction
Successful earthquake risk reduction relies on many different factors apart from standard retrofitting
procedures for re-enforcing structures of buildings, bridges, and other infrastructures, for which the
engineering and technical knowledge is sufficiently available.
One key challenge is that the enforcement of earthquake resistant codes is more difficult to be achieved in
the private sector compared to the public sector. For example, in California it is not possible to retrofit a
private apartment building if only one owner of an apartment out of many does not agree to plans
strengthening the building. Because of this, Turkey adopted a national building code which only requires ¾
of the apartment holders to support retrofitting plans for the building they are all living in. Solutions to
attract the private sector to implement building codes are seen in tax incentives, but also in raising
awareness through education.
The mainstreaming of well designed disaster education modules at schools, like in Japan, is a key step for
sensitizing the schoolchildren about earthquake risk. In the process of awareness raising the role of the
media is crucial in spreading out information to the wider public.
Earthquake risk reduction in the public sector is suggested to address first schools, followed by hospitals
and critical government buildings to lower the risks of losses of human lives and also to allow key
infrastructures to run right after a disaster to deliver emergency services for affected people, like medical
treatment in hospitals.
The need of hazard maps and building codes is emphasized in this summary, but it is crucial that
governments are updating them in regular periods and set new standards adequate to the current
knowledge and situation.
Regarding retrofitting projects in developing countries, the transfer of technical and engineering knowledge
is crucial for an efficient and durable implementation of strengthening measures against earthquakes.
Thereby, local engineers may accept engineers who are independently reviewing retrofitting processes.
One lesson learned from the before mentioned earthquake in Turkey suggests that the absence of regular
inspections allowed the use of poor quality concrete for the construction of buildings, and as a result was a
major reason for buildings having collapsed during the Izmit earthquake. The sharing of knowledge in the
aftermath of an earthquake is not only having a direct impact in reducing risks, but may also allow training
for capacity-building of local engineers.
3
Further Information
For more information about organizations and publications related to earthquake risk reduction, please
visit the following links:
Organizations:
 EQRM International Inc. (provides consultancy for structural engineering, risk consulting, and
construction services):
http://www.eqrm.com/home.html
 Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP, provides details on
ongoing project in Istanbul):
http://www.ipkb.gov.tr/icerik/Sayfa.aspx?SayfaId=9
Publications and Papers:
 It is Not Too Late: Preparing for Asia’s Next Big Earthquake, Policy Note – Draft, Global Facility for
Disaster Reduction and Recovery (2010):
http://gfdrr.org/gfdrr/sites/gfdrr.org/files/publication/Preparing_for_Asia's_Next_Big_Earthquake.pdf
 Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault, Earthquake Engineering Research
Institute and Washington Military Department, Emergency Management Division (2005):
http://seattlescenario.eeri.org/documents/EQScenarioFullBook.pdf
 Bilham, R. (2009) The Seismic Future of Cities, Bull Earthquake Eng, open access:
http://cires.colorado.edu/~bilham/MalletMilneXIIBilham.pdf
4