Assessment of the Conservation Efforts to Prevent
Extinction of the Iberian Lynx
FRANCISCO PALOMARES,∗ ‡ ALEJANDRO RODRÍGUEZ,∗ ELOY REVILLA,∗
JOSÉ VICENTE LÓPEZ-BAO,∗ AND JAVIER CALZADA†
∗
Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Américo Vespucio s/n, Isla de la Cartuja, 41092 Sevilla,
Spain
†Departamento de Biologı́a Ambiental y Salud Pública, Universidad de Huelva, Av Fuerzas Armadas s/n, 21071 Huelva, Spain
Abstract:
The Iberian lynx ( Lynx pardinus) may be the first charismatic felid to become extinct in a
high-income country, despite decades of study and much data that show extinction is highly probable. The
International Union for Conservation of Nature categorizes it as critically endangered; about 200 freeranging individuals remain in two populations in southern Spain. Conservation measures aimed at averting
extirpation have been extensively undertaken with 4 of the former 10 Iberian lynx populations recorded 25
years ago. Two of the four populations have been extirpated. The number of individuals in the third population
have declined by 83%, and in the fourth the probability of extirpation has increased from 34% to 95%. Major
drivers of the pending extinction are the small areas to which conservation measures have been applied;
lack of incorporation of evidence-based conservation, scientific monitoring, and adaptive management into
conservation efforts; a lack of continuity in recovery efforts, and distrust by conservation agencies of scientific
information. In contrast to situations in which conservation and economic objectives conflict, in the case of
the Iberian lynx all stakeholders desire the species to be conserved.
Keywords: evidence-based conservation, extinction probability, Iberian lynx, Lynx pardinus, management
practice
Evaluación de los Esfuerzos de Conservación para Prevenir la Extinción del Lince Ibérico
Resumen: El lince ibérico ( Lynx pardinus) puede ser el primer felino carismático que se extinga en un paı́s
desarrollado, a pesar de décadas de estudio y muchos datos que muestran que su extinción es altamente
probable. La Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza lo clasifica como en peligro crı́tico;
quedan alrededor de 200 individuos en libertad en dos poblaciones en el sur de España. Se han tomado
medidas de conservación extensivas dirigidas a evitar la desaparición de 4 de las 10 poblaciones de lince
ibérico registradas hace 25 añ os. Dos de esas 4 poblaciones han desaparecido. El nú mero de individuos en
una tercera población ha disminuido un 83% y, en la cuarta, la probabilidad de extinción ha incrementado
del 34% al 95%. Las principales causas de la situación actual son el pequeño tamañ o de las áreas en las que
se han aplicado las medidas de conservación; la falta de incorporación de medidas basadas en la evidencias,
de seguimiento cientı́fico y de manejo adaptativo en los esfuerzos de conservación; la falta de continuidad en
los esfuerzos de recuperación y la desconfianza de las agencias de conservación en la información cientı́fica.
En contraste con situaciones donde los objetivos económicos y de conservación entran en conflicto, en el caso
del lince ibérico todas las partes interesadas desean que la especie sea conservada.
Palabras Clave: conservación basada en evidencias, lince Ibérico, Lynx pardinus, manejo adaptativo, probabilidad de extinción
‡email ffpaloma@ebd.csic.es
4
Introduction
In 1986 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) listed the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) as endangered (von Arx & Breitenmoser-Würsten 2008), and
10 years later it was the only species in category 1 (highest global and regional concern) of the global ranking
of felid vulnerability developed by Nowell and Jackson
(1996). The species’ small geographic range and specific
resource requirements contributed to its assignment to
this threat category. Sixteen years later it was recategorized as critically endangered (von Arx & BreitenmoserWürsten 2008), which means the probability of extinction in the wild is extremely high.
Around 1980 only 1100 individuals remained in 10 isolated populations on the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and
Portugal) (Rodrı́guez & Delibes 1992; Castro & Palma
1996). These data prompted development of a profusion
of conservation plans by regional, national, and European
government and nongovernmental organizations. Eight
plans have been published since 1980. The first was the
Management Plan for the Iberian Lynx in Doñana National Park (the most studied population occurs in the
park). Despite widespread social concern and the development of these plans, the Iberian lynx still has a high
probability of extinction. In 16 years (1985–2001) the
size of its geographic range and breeding area have decreased; abundance of breeding females and of all individuals decreased by 86–93% (Calzada et al. 2007); and
8 of the 10 populations were extirpated (Calzada et al.
2007; Sarmento et al. 2009) (Fig. 1). Currently, about 200
free-ranging individuals remain in southern Spain. They
comprise two populations that are 240 km apart, Sierra
Morena and Doñana.
Trends in the Remaining Iberian Lynx Populations
The size of the Doñana population has been approximately 50 over the last 25 years (Fig. 1). In Doñana,
lynx range over 2000 km2 and form a metapopulation
with source–sink dynamics (Gaona et al. 1998). Persistence of the meta population depends on the evolution
of source populations (Gaona et al. 1998; Revilla & Wiegand 2008) that occur within the Doñana National Park
boundaries (550 km2 ). Between 1985 and 2005, the number of breeding territories inside the park decreased from
11 from 1985 through 1992, to 9 in 1997, and to 5 in 2005.
This decline in breeding territories in the park increased
the probability of the species’ extirpation in 100 years
from 34%, to 46%, and to 95%, respectively (Gaona et al.
1998; Revilla & Wiegand 2008) (Fig. 2). The probability
of extirpartion of the Doñana metapopulation increased
to 98% in the spring of 2007, when an outbreak of feline
leukemia killed three of the four adult males remaining
in Doñana National Park. Six infected lynx (four males
and two females) were removed from the area and held
in captivity (Meli et al. 2009) (Fig. 2).
The extirpation of the Doñana metapopulation might
be prevented if the equivalent of 10 new territories could
be established in the park and 14 lynx could be translocated over 5 years. Such an increase in number of potential territories and individuals would decrease extirpation probability to <10% and would significantly increase the persistence time of the Doñana population
(Fig. 2). Lynx translocations from Sierra Morena would
also help increase genetic diversity of the Doñana population, which is 33% lower than that of the Sierra Morena
population (Johnson et al. 2004), and forestall inbreeding
depression. Available data do not allow quantification of
the probability of the extirpation of the Sierra Morena
population, but between 1985 and 2005 this population
exhibited a pattern of range contraction similar to other
populations that have already been extirpated (Fig. 1). In
spite of this, the Sierra Morena population may be able to
withstand extraction of four cubs and four juveniles per
year (Palomares et al. 2002b).
Conservation Efforts
Extensive conservation measures aimed at averting extirpation have been undertaken for 4 of the former 10
Iberian lynx populations. The success of these efforts
has been negligible, however. The Malcata (Portugal) and
Toledo Mountains populations were extirpated; between
1985 and 2005, the number of individuals in the Sierra
Morena population declined by 83%; and the probability
of extirpation of the Doñana population increased from
34% to 95%.
The most conservation efforts have been aimed at the
Doñana and Malcata populations. In the Doñana National
Park since 1986 more than 19 lynx conservation projects
have been implemented. The average duration for 12 of
them was 4 years (there is no information on duration for
the seven remaining projects). Budgets for 10 projects for
which data are available collectively amounted to over
€11 million. Furthermore, other long-term management
projects in the Doñana region, not explicitly aimed at
Iberian lynx, included measures meant to improve the
quality of lynx habitat and to reduce mortality on roads.
Since 2002, two European Union conservation projects
(i.e., LIFE projects) contributed €31 million to the conservation of the two remaining lynx populations. Because
private foundations and nongovernmental organizations
also implemented many local conservation projects, we
estimate that no less than €60 million were spent in
Spain over the last 30 years on conservation of the Iberian
lynx. Areas in Malcata were protected in 1981 with the
specific aim of preserving an Iberian lynx population,
and the bulk of the resources for lynx conservation in
Portugal was allocated for this project. Nevertheless, lynx
Figure 1. Area of occupancy of the six largest Iberian lynx populations (outlined key) from 1955 to 2005 and
estimated population size (number of individuals) of the two remaining populations, Doñana and Sierra Morena,
in 1985 and 2005. The estimates of area of occupancy between 1955 and 1985 were taken from Rodrı́guez and
Delibes (2002). After 1985 data is from Palomares et al. (1991), Ferreras (2001), Rodrı́guez (2002), and Román
et al. (2006) for the Doñana population; from Palomares et al. (2002a), Guzmán et al. (2004), and Consejerı́a de
Medio Ambiente (2006) for the Sierra Morena population; and from Ceia et al. (1998) and Sarmento et al. (2009)
who reported the near extinction of the Iberian lynx in Portugal. Population size estimates in 1985 and 2005 are
from Rodrı́guez and Delibes (1992), Román et al. (2006), and Consejerı́a de Medio Ambiente (2006).
were extirpated in Malcata around 1997 (Sarmento et al.
2009).
Reasons for the Limited Success of Conservation
Efforts
In spite of listing, comprehensive scientific knowledge
(Ferreras et al. 2010), and remarkable conservation efforts, Iberian lynx continue to decline. We believe there
are four synergistic factors in the limited success of lynx
conservation that may apply to other endangered species.
First, conservation measures have not been applied
over large extents. Adult Iberian lynx need 5–15 km2
of territory (Ferreras et al. 2010), which means a population of 50 breeding females requires about 500 km2
of high-quality habitat. Small population size and associated stochastic processes likely drove extirpation of many
Iberian lynx populations (Rodrı́guez & Delibes 2003).
To maximize the probability of survival over 40 years,
populations require areas >500 km2 , an area in which
observed extirpation frequencies are zero. For populations occupying areas of 250–500 km2 and <100 km2
observed extirpation frequencies are 0.63 and 0.75, respectively (Rodrı́guez & Delibes 2003). Thus, conservation measures applied over small areas are unlikely to be
effective. In general, extensive improvements to habitat
quality and habitat-restoration projects are not simple or
inexpensive (e.g., Wilcove & Chen 1998). For the Iberian
lynx, interventions to improve habitat quality include extensive removal of forestry plantations, clearing of scrubland, increasing the abundance of prey by building warrens and translocating rabbits (Oryctolagus cunniculus),
and construction of underpasses to decrease mortality of
lynx on roads (Ferreras et al. 2010). With the exception
mentioned above for Doñana, the government allocation
for conservation of lynx has been generally insufficient
and applied only to several small disparate areas. Therefore, if sufficient funds cannot be raised, concentrating
money and effort in selected large areas might be accomplished through collaborative planning among stakeholders, such as regional and national governments and
nongovernmental organizations.
Second, few resources have been dedicated to scientific monitoring of the effectiveness of conservation actions. Consequently, although many different
Figure 2. Doñana National Park population of
Iberian lynx (a) probability of extirpation in 100
years (grey bars) and mean time to extirpation (black
bars) and (b) population size (number of individuals)
(grey bars), population size coefficient of variation
(dots), and average number of resident females (black
bars) under different conservation strategies: A, lynx
population in 2007 after a feline leukemia outbreak;
B, translocation of individuals to account for the lynx
that died of feline leukemia; C, increase in carrying
capacity of the main source area by 10 territories; D,
scenarios B+C; E, as in scenario D plus translocation
of 10 lynx into the main source population. Details of
the simulation model used to generate results shown
in these figures are in Revilla and Wiegand (2008).
conservation tools have been tried, alone or in combination, little has been learned about the reasons for their
efficiency or failure. Moreover, the absence of scientific
monitoring of individual projects has precluded changes
in goals and practices under the principles of adaptive
management or evidence-based conservation (Sutherland
et al. 2004). Although the necessity of scientific monitoring has been emphasized in conservation plans for the
Iberian lynx (particularly in those redacted during the
last 10 years), it has rarely been carried out in practice.
The lack of monitoring is due to allocation of all the limited funds available to implementation of conservation
measures, despite considerable uncertainty of their efficacy. As a result, some conservation measures have been
applied for over 20 years without measurable success. For
example, rabbits are the main prey of Iberian lynx, and
recovery of Iberian lynx depends in part on recovery of
rabbit populations. Considerable effort has been put into
increasing the abundance of rabbits in Doñana National
Park. Over the last 20 years approximately 30,000 rabbits
were translocated to the park, but there has been no noticeable increase in the abundance of rabbits (Fernández
2005), and it is unknown whether local or temporal increases in the abundance of rabbits are attributable to
the translocations. We believe no effective method to increase rabbit abundances has been developed because
rabbit populations have not been monitored adequately.
Some monitoring of rabbits has been conducted, but
these efforts often lacked scientific rigor. Critical and
objective assessments through systematic monitoring of
conservation actions should be performed, preferably by
people who were not involved in plan development.
Third, often management plans were developed with
the input of elected officials, whose tenures were short
(<5 years), and this contributed to a lack of continuity in
recovery efforts. Furthermore, most management plans
do not include adaptive management components. Thus,
instead of revising a plan to address changes in the situation new management plans have to be developed, which
slows the conservation process.
Fourth, practitioners working on Iberian lynx recovery
have limited confidence in scientific knowledge. Sometimes scientific advice has been taken into consideration
when it was too late to act on that advice. Reintroduction
of lynx to areas where they had been extirpated was recommended 10 years ago (Delibes et al. 2000), but the first
reintroduction began at the end of 2009. In addition, specific studies were conducted to inform reintroductions.
Recommendations derived from these studies followed
IUCN guidelines (Rodrı́guez et al. 2003) and provided
details on how many free-ranging individuals could be
extracted from donor populations to minimize negative
effects (Palomares et al. 2002b). The results of updated
population viability analyses that incorporated many different management scenarios and outcomes within an
adaptive-management context have been available (in the
form of internal reports and presentations at numerous
venues) since 2006. None of the reintroduction recommendations or PVA results have been incorporated into
existing management plans.
Conservation efforts may fail simply because information transfer among scientists, managers, and politicians
is imperfect or because detailed conservation planning
is lacking (Groves et al. 2002). Nevertheless, this has not
been the case with Iberian lynx conservation. Most scientific information on the species is available in diverse and
accessible peer-reviewed journals (Ferreras et al. 2010),
scientists have participated in most meetings organized
by local, regional, or national management agencies, and
researchers have been actively involved in the preparation of management plans. Furthermore, over the last
10 years scientists and conservation technicians have
collaborated officially in at least five research projects.
In all, information transfer between science and management seems evident. Sometimes, scientific evidence was
treated by those responsible for Iberian lynx conservation
as the opinion of just one more stakeholder.
The use of evidence-based advice, large-scale and longterm planning, and scientific monitoring may add reason
to the management of the Iberian lynx and may increase
the probability of preventing its extinction. Europe has
several of the highest income countries in the world
(Spain among them), and sufficient resources should be
available to halt the extinction of Iberian lynx.
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