Development of A White Paper on Modeling Toxic Pollutant Loading and Management Scenarios in the Kalamazoo River Watershed Chansheng He and Jay Means Departments of Geography and Chemistry Western Michigan University Kalamazoo, MI 49008 Proposal Submitted to the Great Lakes Center for Environmental and Molecular Sciences I. Problem Statement Water pollution, particularly high concentration of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs) has led to the designation of the Kalamazoo River as one of the 42 Areas of Concern in the Great Lakes basin by the International Joint Commission. A number of monitoring and research projects have been initiated in recent years for gaining an improved understanding of transport, fate, and effects of toxic pollutants such as PCBs and mercury in the Kalamazoo River. However, those projects mainly focus on the transport, fate, and effects of the pollutants in the streams. Little has been done to examine the contributions and impacts of different land use activities to the loading, transport, and fate of those pollutants from the entire watershed. This gap needs to be filled to help us develop best management practices (BMPs) for mitigating water pollution problems in the Kalamazoo River watershed and beyond. II. The Objectives This research will inventory and characterize the water quality of the Kalamazoo River, model the sources, loading, and transport of toxic pollutants (total phosphorous, lead, mercury, PCBs, and antrazine), and develop land use scenarios for managing those pollutants. The specific objectives are: 1. Characterize land use, industrial facility discharge, toxic release sites, and water quality of the Kalamazoo River watershed by inventorying the EPA STORET and BASINS databases; 2. Model the loading and transport of pollutants from both point sources and nonpoint sources using the EPA supported model, Hydrological Simulation Program in FORTRAN (HSPF) for multiple years (1990 – 1999); 3. Calibrate and analyze the spatial distribution of simulated results for identification and evaluation of critical pollution areas; 4. Develop multiple land use management scenarios to support water pollution management programs in the Kalamazoo River watershed. The unique contributions of this research are: 1) Characterizing water quality by subwatersheds and multiple periods; 2) Quantifying the sources, loading, and transport of pollutants from the entire watershed; and 3) Developing management scenarios in support of policy/decision making. III. Analysis Procedure 1. Characterize land use and water quality of the Kalamazoo River Watershed. There are 111 industrial facility discharges, 94 toxic release sites, 221 water quality stations, 7 long term water quality observation stations, and 16 U.S.G.S. gage stations in the Kalamazoo River watershed. These data are available from the EPA STORET and BASINS databases for the period of 1970 to 1997. We’ll inventory these databases and conduct comparative analyses to characterize the land use and water quality of the watershed. 2. Model the loading and transport of pollutants from both point sources and nonpoint sources. There are 23 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits (point sources) and 96 subwatersheds (at the 14-digital code level). We’ll acquire, process, and compile multiple meteorological, land use, hydrological, topographical, soil, and water quality databases for deriving input parameters by GIS to HSPF, one of the most comprehensive and widely used simulation model developed and supported by EPA since 1970s. We’ll then use HSPF to simulate loading and transport of phosphorous, lead, mercury, PCBs and antrazine from both point sources and nonpoint sources for multiple years (19901999 due to data availability) to the Kalamazoo River. 3. Calibrate and analyze the spatial distribution of simulated results. We’ll use the existing EPA STORET and BASINS databases as well as the data collected by Dr. Jay Means and his associates to calibrate the simulated results for determining the uncertainty of simulation. We’ll then use GIS to identify and evaluate critical subwatershed areas for targeting management programs. 4. Develop multiple land use management scenarios for mitigating the water pollution problems. We’ll develop and assess multiple land use management scenarios using HSPF to provide management agencies information for mitigating water pollution problems in the Kalamazoo River watershed. IV. Budget The itemized budget for this project is: 1 month summer salary for Chansheng He, $7,300 (11% of base salary); supplies including EARTH INFO hydrological databases, DEM data, CD ROMs, phone charges, and photocopies, $3,500. Total budget: $10,800.