The Special Danger in South Asia
Nuclear conflict is most likely to break out between two nuclear weapons states at political loggerheads with each other.
For the Cold War period, it was the face-off between the former
Soviet Union and the USA that was correctly considered the most dangerous confrontation. Though the systemic rivalry between these two giants meant involvement on opposing sides in Third
World wars and conflicts, the two countries shared no common border, their troops were not deployed directly against each other's, and the 'war' between them remained a 'cold' (essentially ideological) one. Even so, it was still a close run matter with the
October Cuban missile crisis of 1962 leaving them and the world a hair's breadth away from a nuclear Armageddon.
In South Asia there is every reason for alarm. India and Pakistan are territorially contiguous countries, sharing a long common border. Moreover, from their very inception as independent countries there has been a bitter, ongoing and unresolved dispute over Kashmir. Already four wars (1948, 1965, 1971, 1999) have taken place between them with Kashmir at the heart of three of these wars. The last one took place after both had become declared nuclear powers. From December 2001, the two countries have placed their armies on high alert and have deployed them all along the border.
NRRMs are also supposed to act as crucial confidence-building measures (CBMs). They are supposed to operate in such a way that each side believes the other will not 'cheat' and will comply by their respective obligations. That is to say, NRRMs to work properly must promote trust through assurances of compliance. Technical verification of NRRMs is thus meant to show that there is such proper compliance.
Confidence-building measures include:
Hotline between military directorates
1992 agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against
Nuclear Installations and Facilities
Hotline between Pakistani Prime Minister (then Benazir
Bhutto) and Indian Prime Minister (Rajiv Ghandi – assassinated).
Agreement on advanced notice of military exercises and troop mobility
Measures to prevent airspace violation and permission to permit over flights and landings by military aircraft
Specific NRRMs include:
Tacit agreement to avoid nuclear brinksmanship
Formal agreements not to engage in dangerous military tactics
Special reassurance about the security and protection of nuclear weapons and facilities
Verification via inspections
Redundant command and control systems and intelligence capabilities
Establishing legally binding NRRMs
Reduction of dangers from ‘false alarms’
Establishment of Indo-Pakistan Commission on Kashmir
Comprehensive Nuclear Restraint Regime --> prior notification of missile tests
Agreement for non-mating and separate storage of nuclear warheads and delivery systems