Redundancy Analysis for the Mexico City Air Monitoring Network: The Case of SO2 Paper # 1172 Monica Jaimes, Roberto Muñoz, Cristina Ortuño, Armando Retama, Rafael Ramos, Victor H. Paramo Secretaría del Medio Ambiente, Gobierno del Distrito Federal, Agricultura No. 21, Del. Miguel Hidalgo, 11800, Mexico, D. F. ABSTRACT The Mexico City ambient air monitoring network (Red Automática de Monitoreo Atmosférico RAMA) is one of the largest air monitoring networks in Latin America. Currently, RAMA comprises 36 remote automatic stations distributed in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). From these, 26 remote stations are set for the continuous determination of sulfur dioxide (SO2), among other criteria pollutants and meteorological parameters. RAMA is a surveillance type monitoring network for the determination of hourly concentrations of criteria pollutants in order to observe the compliance of the national health standards related to air quality. For the purpose of timely public information dissemination, data generated in the remote stations is employed in the determination of the air quality index. It is recognized that the monitoring network uses a larger number of monitors than it is required. This translates in an extra expense for the operation and maintenance of such equipment. In this paper, data from the 26 original network SO2 monitors was employed in order to determine redundancy in the measurements of this pollutant. Three complementary methods were applied for the identification of site redundancy in the urban atmospheric monitoring network: the nominative method proposed by Hwang and Chan (1997), cluster analysis, and descriptive statistics. Site redundancy will be used to re-design the SO2 RAMA network with an optimized representative sub-network that will warranty the adequate surveillance of the air quality in relation to this pollutant. The immediate application of the results will be an important economical saving for the Mexico City Government by reducing the costs of the network operation. INTRODUCTION Surveillance air quality monitoring has the purpose to determine dangerous pollutant concentrations for the protection of public health. Additionally, air monitoring is the mean by which the effectiveness of the air quality improvement programs can be assessed. (Haas 1992; Langstaff J. et al,1987 ;TrujilloVentura et al, 1991; WHO, 1980). For these purposes, a representative and effective air monitoring network is required for the continuous surveillance of an urban area. Pollutant measurements and source characterization assist in the definition of the specific problems that must be addressed for the abatement of the air pollution (Noll et al, 1983; Miller and Sager, 1994). In the early 1980s the MCMA presented very high concentrations of SO2. As consequence, 26 monitors were integrated in the RAMA for the continuous determination of this pollutant (SEDUE, 1987; Martínez and Romieu, 1997). The original distribution of the remote stations is shown in Map 1. The industrialized part of the city in the North houses 15, SO2 monitors; other 4 are located in the commercial and residential Central zone, and the remaining 7 are in the residential South side of the city. Map 1. Original SO2 Monitoring Network (26 stations) in Mexico City. At present, actual concentrations of SO2, very seldom exceed the corresponding health standard (130 ppb as a 24-hours average), due to the effectiveness of several actions contained in the Programs for the Improvement of the Air Quality in the MCMA. For example, since 1992 heavy oil is not consumed in the city; large industries have converted processes to natural gas; the maximum content of sulfur in diesel has been lowered to 0.05% by volume (GDF, 2002). Hourly SO2 concentrations have been reduced 78% in the period 1990 – 1995. Thereafter, the field measurements of this pollutant show a gradual-descending trend. These changes suggest that the implemented actions have succeeded in controlling the SO2 emissions. However, at the same time, it has been found that some monitoring stations present redundancy since their measurements are similar (GDF, 2002). The purpose of this paper is to identify the presence of redundancy in the SO2 measurements conducted in the MCMA air monitoring network and to design a sub-network with representative monitoring sites that warranty the warranty the adequate surveillance of the air quality in relation to this pollutant. METHODS Redundancy Methods The redundancy analysis was conducted using three different methods: Hwang & Chan, Descriptive Statistics, and Cluster Analysis; each one assesses a particular aspect of the SO2 behavior. Hwang & Chan Method (1997): This method uses a backward approach to eliminate remote stations, one by one, until a representative sub-network is obtained in terms of similarity (similar arithmetic average change), equivalence (number of days in a year in which the difference of the average concentrations are within a selected range), and spatial variation (relative error of the variance of the sub-network in relation to the original network within a selected range) (Hwang and Chan, 1997). Descriptive Statistics: This method analyzes the median and interquartile range for both the original network and the sub-network. Redundancy is determined by grouping monitoring stations with similar values. The interpretation of the analysis results and selection of redundant stations requires experience from the analyst. Multivariate Analysis (Clusters Analysis): This method identifies and groups the monitoring stations that register concentrations of similar magnitudes (Canberra metrics), or stations with similar trends (correlation metrics) regardless the magnitudes. The final selection of redundant stations requires experience from the analyst. (Kachigan S., 1991; Flynn C., 2000 Air Quality Data for Redundancy Methods SO2 data used in for the redundancy approach were the 1-hour averages, 24-hours mobile averages and annual averages from the 26 remote monitoring stations during the period 1998 – 2000. Only data that fulfills the completeness criterion of 75% of valid data in a year is considered in the analysis. Sub-network proposal For the integration of the sub-network monitoring stations three criteria were taken into consideration: Results from the redundancy analysis Monitoring stations performance (data completeness 75%) Case episodes registered by station and boundary representativeness Sub-network assessment Sub-network selection is assessed against the original network by comparisons of the corresponding air pollution index, trends analysis and spatial distribution analysis. Air Quality Index Analysis: The Air Quality Metropolitan Index (Indice Metropolitano de la Calidad del Aire - IMECA) is determined on an hourly basis for the criteria pollutants in a similar fashion as the former US Pollution Standard Index. For the purpose of the IMECA dissemination, the MCMA is divided in the 5 zones shown in Map 1. The IMECA for a zone and hour is the highest of the IMECAs in that zone and hour for all the criteria pollutants. A representative SO2 sub-network must replicate the IMECA generated by the original network. The analysis conducted compared the IMECA generated with the original network and the sub-network for the period 1998 – 2002. Trend Analysis: This method identifies the existence of trends in the pollutant concentrations in bothe the original and the sub-network and determines the percentage of change through time. The subnetwork must show the same historic behavior than the original network. The annual average is obtained and its trend is determined using the Mann-Kendall method (Gilbert, 1992). Spatial Representativeness: The analysis determines the spatial distribution of the pollutant concentrations and its relation with the emission sources. Therefore, the sub-network’s spatial pattern must show a similar pattern as the original network. Spatial representativeness was conducted in the annual average for the period 1998 – 2002. RESULTS SO2 Monitoring Sub-network Proposal 1. The redundancy analysis determines as non-redundant the following 12 stations: LAG, HAN, MER, LLA, XAL, ATI, EAC, TAC, TLA, VAL, CES and TAX. Additional considerations 2. PED station must be part of the sub-network since it is the only one in the SW zone. 3. Stations SAG, LVI and TLI will be part of the sub-network since they reported frequent episodes in the North of the MCMA. 4. TAH station will be part of the sub-network since it represents boundary and transport conditions. Therefore, a sub-network of 17 SO2 monitoring stations was integrated. The North part of the city continues to house the larger number of analyzers since the higher concentrations and number of episodes occur in this part of the city. Map 2 shows the distribution of stations in the sub-network. Map 2. SO2 sub-network in the MCMA Monitoring sub-network assessment Air Quality Index Analysis: The following results were obtained by calculating the IMECA for the subnetwork and compare it with the IMECA of the original network: Central zone loses 1% of the IMECA information. The Southwest zone loses 20% of the information because it only houses one monitoring station (PED). To overcome this, PLA station in the Southwest can be incorporated. However, it is important to note that this part of the city has registered the lowest SO2 concentrations and has not presented excedances to the corresponding health standard. In the other zones of the city there are no lose of representativeness in the generation of the IMECA, therefore the proposed sub-network preserves the importance of the source emissions in the industrialized North part of the city. Table 2. Percentage of hours per year that a sub-network station determined the highest pollution index IMECA Central Zone Northeast Zone Northwest Zone Southeast SW Year HAN LAG MER LVI LLA SAG XAL ATI EAC TAC TLA TLI VAL CES TAH TAX PED 1998 38 34 28 6 30 16 48 13 9 17 28 22 11 43 6 51 100 1999 7 33 60 18 25 10 47 5 7 24 18 22 24 37 19 44 100 2000 37 19 43 12 18 7 63 4 6 33 40 1 16 57 15 28 97 2001 45 37 18 9 4 22 65 11 3 24 54 8 0.2 37 4 59 88 2002 20 42 38 28 8 5 60 9 14 13 42 16 6 50 12 38 95 Total hours per station 12,866 14,506 16,382 6,351 7,466 5,212 24,795 3,642 3,327 9,725 15,898 6,112 5,120 19,663 4,987 19,174 42,068 % of information lost 1 0 0 0 20 Trends Analysis: SO2 has shown a decreasing trend in the years of study 1986 – 2002. The slope and percentage of decrement of the sub-network and the original network are very similar (see Table 3). This implies that the SO2 sub-network will continue to characterize the historic trends in comparison with the original network. Table 3. Mann-Kendall Test for 1986 a 2002. Original Sub-network Network Trend Slope Percent of decrement (1986 – 2002) Yes -0.00232 96% yes -0.00248 99% Spatial Representativeness: A spatial distribution of the SO2 averages was conducted for the original network and the sub-network in the period 1998-2002. Maps 3a and 3b show the comparison for the case year 2002. It can be noticed that there are not noticeable changes in the spatial distribution and that the zones with high or low concentrations are clearly identified in both cases. This means that the proposed sub-network will continue to characterize the spatial distribution of the pollutant with respect to the original network. Same conclusions were obtained comparing the other case years. . Map 3. Spatial representativeness of the SO2 annual concentrations for the year 2002 a) Original Network (26 remote stations) b) Proposed sub-network (17 remote stations) CONCLUSIONS The redundancy analysis using three complementary methods and other criteria determined the possibility to define a representative sub-network of 17 remote stations, in which: 1. The SO2 pollution index IMECA will continue being registered in the same fashion by the representative monitoring sub-network. 2. SO2 trends will continue to be characterized. 3. Spatial representativeness will continue to characterize the influence of emission sources and transport processes. The proposed 17 remote stations sub-network will continue to represent the SO2 behavior as the original network. Important cost savings in operation and maintenance are expected when continue the surveillance of the air quality in the MCMA with the sub-network. AKNOWLEDGMENTS Authors wish to thanks Guadalupe Granados, Rocío Carmona, Samuel López, Vicente Pérez, Antonio Valdés, Eduardo Preciado, Laura Ocampo, Felipe Rosales, Angel Sánchez and Marco Morales for their assistance in the development the this case study. REFERENCES DDF, “Programa para Mejorar la Calidad del Aire en el Valle de México 1995-2000”. Gobierno del Distrito Federal. 1996. Flynn Colleen, T., Multivariate Statistics, http://trochim.human.cornell.edu/tutorial/flynn/multivar.htm, (accessed March 2000). GDF, “Informe del Estado de la Calidad del Aire y Tendencias 2001". Gobierno del Distrito Federal. 2002. Gilbert, R.O., “Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring”, Van Nostrand Reinhold. 1987. Haas, Timothy C., “Redesigning Continental-Scale Monitoring Networks”, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 26A(18): 3323-3333. 1992 Hwang J.S. and Chan Ch.Ch., “Redundant Measurements of Urban Air Monitoring Networks in Air Quality Reporting”, Journal Air & Waste Management Association, 47:614-619, 1997. Kachigan S. K., “Multivariate Statistical Analysis”, 2ª. Edition, Radius Press, New York, 1991. Langstaff J., Seigneur C., Liu M.K., Behar J., and McElroy J.L., “Design of an Optimum Air Monitoring Network for Exposure Assessments”. Atmospheric Environment Vol. 21 (6): 1393-1410, 1987. Martínez A. P. y Romieu I., “Introducción al Monitoreo Atmosférico”, OPS, GTZ y DDF, México, 1997. Miller, A. Y Sager, T. “Site redundancy in Urban Ozone Monitoring”, Journal Air & Waste Management Association, 44:1097-1102, 1994. Noll, K. Y Mitsutomi, S., “Design Methodology for Optimum Dosage Air Monitoring Site Selection”, Atmospheric Environment, 17(12):2583-2590, 1983. SEDUE-FUNDACIÓNFR IEDICH EBERT, (1987). "Primer Seminario Internacional sobre administración de la Calidad del Aire", Metepec, Puebla, 2 al 6 de noviembre. S-Plus, Hand Book, 2000. Statistica, HandBook, StatSoft, 1994. Trujillo-Ventura, A. and Ellis J. H. ,“Multiobjetive Air Pollution Monitoring Network Design”, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 25A(2): 469-479, 1991. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. (1998). “Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution Measurement Systems. Volume II: Part 1. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards”. Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. EPA-454/R-98-044. August 1998. World Healt Organization, “Analyzing and Interpreting Air Monitoring Data”, WHO Offset Publication No. 51, Geneva, 1980. KEY WORDS Mexico City Metropolitan Area Monitoring Network Redesign Redundancy Sulfur dioxide Sub-network