PROMOTING THE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES
IN TIGRIS AND EUPHRATES BASINS
Munadhil F. Abbas Al- Mahdawi
Head of Strategical Studies Department
Ministry of Water Resources, Republic of Iraq
Increasing population, growing basin development, and progressively
decreasing water supplies available to Iraq due to massive development plans
for utilizing international rivers in upstream riparian. Make it critical that Iraqi
Ministry of Water Resources reassess the present and projected basin
conditions, within and beyond its borders. Water supply in Iraq from the Tigris
and Euphrates Rivers is essential for municipal, agriculture, industrial and
environmental demands to restore the Mesopotamian Marshlands. Securing
long term water supply in Iraq depends on planning of water resources
development along the Tigris and Euphrates but more importantly depends on
ensuring sustainable and rational water utilization. At the same time, the
upstream countries ( Turkey and Iran) are executing their own ambitious water
resources development plans. To date, most of the development Turkey and
Syria have been concentrated on the Euphrates. The flows entering the country
via the Euphrates have already been reduced by the upstream developments in
Turkey and in the next few decades further drastic reduction on the Euphrates
flow are likely to occur.
The mean annual natural runoff of the Euphrates is estimated to amount
between 27.0 and 35.1 billion m3 (BMC) while for Tigris is between 41.2 and
58 BMC. The estimates are considerably dissimilar among the different sources.
This lack of homogeneity is due to the scarcity of data released from the
qualified authorities. Most of Euphrates runoff produced in the highland of
Turkey while the remaining parts of its catchment make the remaining
contribution. Turkey is the major contribution for Tigris runoff followed by Iraq
and Iran. About half of the Tigris runoff produced in Turkey while the
remaining flow comes from the left tributaries of the Tigris, which for the most
part generate in Iraq and in the Mountain of Iran.
Fig. (1) shows the annual volume of the Euphrates inflows to Iraq for the
years 1933-2011. This may be divided into three distinct periods. The first is
1933-1971 which represented the annual, or predevelopment, periods. The
average annual inflow volume to Iraq during this period was 30.44 BMC. The
second period is 1976-1989 and covers the construction and filling of Kiban and
Tabaka Dams. The average annual inflow volume to Iraq during this period was
26.23 BMC. The average annual inflow volume following the filling of Ataturk
Dam (1994-2007) dropped to 19.69 BMC. The last four years (2008-2011)
represent the realization of some GAP projects in Turkey in addition to the
consequence of weather change in the region. The average annual inflow
volume to Iraq during this period was 12.75 BMC.
Fig (1): Annual Inflows of Euphrates River
Fig (2) shows the reduction of Euphrates accumulated inflow to Iraq
during last four years compared with mean and flood years.
Fig. (2): Accumulated inflow of Euphrates at Syria- Iraqi border (Husaiba)
The Tigris is also expected to experience high stress levels of
development in Turkey . Iran on the other hand has implemented a number of
water resources projects on tributaries of Tigris including major reservoirs that
are now in place causing reduction of transboundary flows of the Tigris and its
tributaries. Although not as substantial as far the Euphrates, but will be
significant in view of the growing demands. Fig. 3 shows the annual volume of
the Tigris inflow to Iraq for the years 1033-2011. The average annual flow
volume of the Tigris River at the Iraqi-Turkish border dropped from 49.22
BMC for the period 1933-1998 to 33.10 BMC for the period 1999-2011.
Fig (3): Annual Inflows of Tigris River
The agriculture sector is the largest water consumer in Iraq. The total
irrigable land area is 5.5 million hectares, of which 3.25 million hectares is
irrigated (equipped for full or partial irrigation). This contributes 10% of the
GDP (35% of the non oil GDP). The rural population of Iraq is 11 million and
agriculture contributes 20% of the national employment. Hydropower
generation in Iraq amounts to 17% of the gross power generation in Iraq.
Water withdrawals for agriculture, municipal and industrial needs amount
to 49 BMC. The total demand is estimated to be 70 BMC. This covers
agriculture, municipal and industrial demand in addition to the very important
demand for marsh restoration. The reduction of incoming inflow to Iraq does
not allow Iraq to achieve enough storage at its reservoirs to meet the demand.
Fig. (4) shows the reduction of Iraqi reservoirs storages during last years (20072011).
Fig. (4): Achieved Live Storage in Iraqi Reservoirs
Although upstream withdrawal for irrigation in Turkey and Iran have not
yet reached the anticipated design levels for now, these countries are moving
quickly towards maximum attainable development which will put considerable
strain on the available resources. Viable projections into the next twenty years
indicate that Iraq will receive considerably lower annual flows along the
Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and tributaries. The problem will be compounded
by degradation in water quality as well leading to pollution, increased
salinization of agricultural lands and health hazard form water supply.
The need for an integrated water resources management plan is more
pressing than ever in Iraq. The country’s future depends on sustainable
management and development of its available water resources that ensure
equitable sharing of water and economic benefits as well as encourage
conservation and protection of the unique environment. Moreover, development
in riparian countries has and will continue to exert considerable strain on the
available resources.
Iraq intended to implement a two phases approach to develop a strategy
of water and land resources in Iraq (SWLRI)
Phase 1, from June 2005 to September 2006, was largely focused on
Stage A of Fig. (5) with some effort extended to perform some of the tasks in
Stage B.
Fig. (5) shown the approach adopted to develop SWLRI which has
iterative nature with the following feature:
- It emphasizes two key data set one for fact and the other for needs.
Fact represent the current state of the country's water resources and it's
physical infrastructure, and needs represent the demands for water
supply, flood control and environmental demand.
- It emphasize a third data set representing opportunities for the future,
these include potential physical interventions as well as policy
changes.
- It emphasize intervention and packages of intervention as unit of
planning process.
The lack of sufficient fresh water to dilute the saline agriculture return
flows in riparian countries and within Iraq will cause elevated salt
concentrations. To mitigate the current and projected water shortages, Iraq must
address and resolve issues of competing water demands and develop long term
strategy for water policies based on cooperation between riparian countries.
Advancing cooperation in the Tigris and Euphrates Basins is to a large extent a
process which includes building of collaborative framework and institutions at
both national and regional levels, building capacity in the different sectors using
the water, and building trust amongst the riparian states through mutual
understanding and agreement on shared objectives in the management,
development and conservation of Tigris and Euphrates basins.
The Phase 2 of SWLRI started in March 2011 and it's objective is to complete
the development of the integrated strategy for water and land resources started
in Phase 1. The scope of work in this phase is to complete the work stared Phase
1 from data collection, archiving, and analysis as well as performing all the
planning activities necessary to develop the Strategy that will guide the
sustainable management and development of the water and land resources of
Iraq.
The primary outputs of SWLRI Phase 2 studies shall include but not be limited
to:
1.
A framework for water and land resources strategy for the planning
horizon 2035 in Iraq with phases of implementation by 2015, 2020,
2025 and 2035 and preparation of a master plan based on integrated
water resources management approach.
2.
An integrated approach for prioritizing development of infrastructures
and capital investment of projects from different sectors that ensure
sustainable development.
3.
A comprehensive strategy based on international law and accepted
conventions for negotiation with riparian countries in Tigris and
Euphrates basins to secure efficient and equitable use and not causing
significant harm to other riparian countries.
Stage A: collection of necessary data
FACTS
NEEDS
hydrology and water quality: water
and salt balances, pollution (present
conditions and likely future trends)
demands for consumptive water
use (with data on effects of changed
supply on quantity and quality of return
flows)
existing rivers and infrastructure
(present condition, trends, sensitivities
to silting, erosion, pollution)
demands for non-consumptive
water use such as hydropower (with
data on timing, implications for energy
policy, etc)
existing water uses
need for flood control
extent and frequency of flooding
(with data on consequences and
impact)
environmental needs (especially
water quality in natural rivers, extent
and quality of southern marshes)
OPPORTUNITIES
potential interventions: physical
infrastructure
potential interventions: changes to
operation and maintenance
potential interventions: policy
(including possible changes to
agriculture, trade or energy policies)
potential interventions: crossborder issues (including information
exchange with upstream countries)
cross-border issues (present
situation, consequences)
Stage B: evolution of the strategy plan
formulate possible intervention-packages
prepare models and analysis tools
examine the consequences of each (using
models and estimating effects on agriculture, trade,
energy, environment, etc)
prepare criteria
compare the packages (using multiple criteria)
collect more data if necessary
can better packages be imagined?
no
yes
return to package
formulate better intervention-packages
formulation if necessary
develop recommendations on priorities and
timing of interventions
consider cost of proposed interventions, and
effect on timing
formulate tentative long-term strategy
is it the best practicable strategy?
yes
develop recommendations on organisation for
implementation
Stage C: Strategy reporting
present strategy plan, with documentation
Fig. (5): Planning Approach for the Strategy for Water and Land Resources
in Iraq (SWLRI).
The overall objective of the proposed strategic planning effort will be to
provide a sound and comprehensive basis for Iraq's management and
development of its water and land resources over the next few decades, together
with a framework and methodology for continuously updating the plans. Such a
strategic planning effort will be essential for the improvement of the peoples’
wellbeing. Since the Tigris and Euphrates basins are already highly regulated by
large storage reservoirs in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, with more likely to be
built, and since the potential water use in all the countries together exceeds the
available supply, comprehensive long-term water resources planning is also
important for the national security of Iraq in its consideration of water quality
and environmental issues.
Iraq realize that the threat to it's water resource and hence to its people
and its economy is real. The Iraqi government is well aware of the problem of
its dependence on upstream riparian to mitigate the current and projected water
shortages, Iraq must address and resolve issues of transboundary water
management based on cooperation between riparian countries. Advancing
cooperation is to large extent a process which includes building of collaborative
framework and institutions at regional levels and building trust amongst the
riparian states through mutual understanding and agreement on shared objective
in the management and development of Tigris and Euphrates basins.
International low could support cooperation between riparian to management of
Euphrates and Tigris basins. The guiding applicable principles of international
law are:
1. Riparian should not cause significant harm, this principle prevent the
upstream riparian determent Iraq.
2. Riparians must use an international watercourse in a manner that
support a joint approach based on optimizing and sharing benefits.
In case of cooperation and joint approach to the development and
management of the Tigris and Euphrates basins, the ecological principle would
suggest can only be optimal if all riparians cooperate in basin wide and
integrated approach to basin investment and management planning, and factor
consideration of the environment into planning.
The consumption of water in project undertaken by upstream countries
shrinking the environmental flows in the river and have major social and
environmental costs for Iraq. In its negotiation the riparian should highlight
these long-term consequences of neglecting ecology. The UN convention on
international watercourses and other international protocols on environmental
place obligation on the governments of the country to preserve ecology within
its territory and to cause no damage to environment of its neighbors.
Since water resources management of downstream countries depends on
the political will of the upstream countries and because of real challenges facing
international shared water resources especially the Climate Change impact, all
riparian countries should work together for integrated management of the shared
waters. Many agreement have been signed between riparian countries of the
Tigris and Euphrates rivers basins, high official meetings have been held,
protocols and technical committees have been formed to reinforce cooperation
between them but still they failed to reach permanent agreement , Iraq and Syria
as downstream countries are looking for better cooperation with upstream
countries (Turkey and Iran) , more water quantity and better water quality and
permanent agreement based on reasonable and equitable basis and according the
international low. The purpose of this target is to propose wise solutions based
on real experience of the concerned countries, in this context it become clear
that the solutions requires imperatively the political will and involvement of
many factors such as political stability, good economic relation, transparency,
trust building …..
The roadmap to achieve the solutions can be summarized as follows:
- Involving of different stakeholders in water cooperation including
civil society, media, legal, water and political expert from riparian
countries for more understanding, confidence building, transparency
and new culture of cooperation.
- Establishment of permanent committees: permanent body of technical
expert from riparian countries for the joint management of the basins
between downstream countries and upstream countries.
- Develop cooperation mechanisms by implementation of joint projects
in the basins for more benefit exchange and for trust building.
- Establishment of permanent agreements on shared international water
resources in Tigris & Euphrates river basins between downstream
countries and upstream countries based on reasonable and equitable
basis and according to international low. This solution needs more
effort either from riparian countries or international institution to
convince the countries to reach this solution.