Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Using a Model to estimate future carbon dioxide levels and possible global warming Introduction. Watch this NASA video on the Carbon Cycle Here’s a video related to some interesting aspects of the carbon cycle. Figure 1. The blue dots are the monthly mean CO2 values measured at the Mona Loa observatory since 1960. The red line is the 12 month running average of these monthly means. Here’s a link to a larger image. Part 1. The Data: Reading the Graph of Figure 1 (see link above to access largerFigure 1) Q1: Objective: How has the CO2 concentration changed over the recent past? Read the graph of figure 1 to answer these questions (Ctrl-click on the image to enlarge it). Using the 12 month running mean (red line) estimate the mean concentrations of CO2 in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000? What are the decadal changes in CO2 over the 5 decades? For example the decadal change in the 1960s is (the 1970 value – the 1960 value). Record in the following table. R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 1 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Year [CO2] (ppm) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 [CO2] ppm ******* 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Q2: From these estimated values is the rate of increase of CO (right column)2 : Growing staying about the same decreasing [circle one] Discuss possible reasons for the behavior of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels over the past 50 years, especially the change in CO2 growth from the 1990s to the 2000s. The figures below and on the next page may provide some insight into these question. Make sure your discussion touches on: Why did CO2 grow at a fairly steady rate in the 1980s and 1990s? Why did CO2 grow so much over the decade from 2000 through 2009? What type of fuel has become increasingly popular world wide? Compare and contrast the per capita fossil fuel emission changes in the developed countries and developing countries. (70 words minimum) Larger images (left) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/global_co2_emissions.jpg (right) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/countries_co2_emissions.jpg R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 2 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes (Larger image at) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/per_capita_co2_emissions.jpg (Larger image at) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/images/fuels_co2_emissions.jpg R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 3 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes The simulation environment that we will use is a model based on the IPCC parameterization of the impulse response function for carbon dioxide injected into the atmosphere. See http://www.atmosedu.com/meteor/ejs/CO2SimulationEnvironment.pdf for a more detailed description of our CO2 simulator. In the schematic above there are 4 major components of the of the global carbon cycle: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Surface Ocean, and Deep Ocean. LS,HS, HD in the above figure are Low latitude surface ocean, High latitude surface ocean, and High latitude Deep Ocean. K is the vertical diffusion constant, q is the horizontal diffusion in the deep ocean, u is the mean upwelling downwelling velocity, and w is the horizontal advection velocity in the surface layer. Q3: Aside from an explicit inclusion of human activity, what other important component(s) to the carbon cycle is missing? Why has this component been omitted in the Bern model designed to make projections of CO2 throughout this century? R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 4 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Part 2 Using JAVA CO2 Simulator observation for model calibration. Objective: Download and use the JAVA CO2 simulator to estimate the terrestrial sink needed to obtain the best fit between model simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Mauna Loa CO2 observations. Download and then open the JAVA CO2 simulator from www.atmosedu.com/meteor/ejs/ejs_CO2C.jar Details on the simulator and how to use it can be found at: http://www.atmosedu.com/meteor/ejs/CO2SimulationEnvironment.pdf Adjust the Terrestrial sink to achieve your best fit between model simulation and Mauna Loa CO2 observations. Remember emissions from fossil fuels and land use changes are provided as prescribed input into the simulation model estimated from current research. Q4: What value of Terrestrial Sink gave your best fit between model and observations? Terrestrial Sink (GtC/yr)= _______________ Q5: How does this agree with published estimates of 1.1+/- 0.8 (GtC/yr)? (see the reference to the 2011 paper by Pan et al. (1)) Q6: Using the estimates of 1.1+/- 0.8 (GtC/yr) for the terrestrial sink, run three simulations: Terrestrial sink =0.3, 1.1, and 1.9 (GtC/yr). Graph all three simulations on the same axes and discuss your results. In your discussion include: The range of 2010 CO2 values obtained in 2010 for these three simulations. Paste a copy of your graph here Insert your discussion here Q7: According to the data available at the DOE site http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2013/ the emissions from both fossil fuels and land use change have uncertainties of +/- 5% and +/- 5 GtC/yr respectively. Assume that some new research were to find that the terrestrial sink was 0.5 GtC/yr +/- 0.2 Gt/yr. What influence would this information have on our assumed emissions from fossil fuels and land use change? R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 5 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Q8: With the best fit what does the model predict for the year 2010 concentration and total carbon emission. (read the output data table for these values) Make sure to include units. 2010 concentration=_______________ 2010 total emission =________________ Part 3: Using the JAVA CO2 simulator for future projections. Objective: Use the JAVA CO2 simulator mode in future projections mode to estimate future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide for different assumed emission scenarios. With the JAVA CO2 simulator open: 1) click the reset button; 2) select the radio button for 2000 to 2100 simulation run; and 3) Use the best fit Terrestrial Sink value from part 2. Q10: Find an emission scenario that just keeps CO2 levels from going above 450 ppm. You maximum CO2 concentration for this run should be no larger than 450 and no less than 440 ppm. Paste both the CO2 graph and the emission graph into your report below for this scenario. Comment on what had to be changed and how soon it had to be changed, and on the feasibility of this scenario (80 words minimum). You must change the emission growth rate values from their default values (business as usual) to values that keep CO2 concentrations below 450 ppm for the duration of this century. Negative values are also okay. Record your new % increase per year values at right Q9: Your % increase per year values: 2013 to 2030= _____________ 2030 to 2050= _____________ 2050 to 2080= _____________ 2080 to 2100= _____________ Is it possible to do this without decreasing the 2013 to 2030 emission growth rate? Past Graphs and insert comments here. R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 6 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Reset, check the 2000 to 2100 run radio button, and set Terrestrial Sink to Part 2 value. Run a simulation with 2013 to 2030 growth rate =-100% (all other growth rates the same. This is very unrealistic. Q11: Paste both the CO2 graph and the emission graph for this scenario below. Comment on the results of this scenario (70 words minimum). The idea here is that all emissions are suddenly (and magically) cut to zero. but the year 2100 CO2 concentration seems to stay above preindustrial level of 280. Why is this true? How long do you think it will take for the emissions to get back to preindustrial levels*? Paste Graphs and enter comments here. *Actually in the present model the CO2 concentration will never get back to 280 because plate tectonics have been omitted from the model so there is no way that carbon can be permanently removed from the “permanent component” of the climate system in this model. Reset, check the 2000 to 2100 run radio button, and set Terrestrial Sink to Part 2 value. Q12: Run the three runs shown in the table above and record the year 2030 and year 2060 CO2 values for each simulation. Also record the BAU-half and half – zero differences. [CO2] in Year BAU half zero BAU-half half-zero 2030 2060 Table 2. 2030 and 2060 CO2 concentration for 3 different emission scenarios. Q13: How do the 2030 concentrations for the three different scenarios of Table 2 compare with each other? R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 7 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Q14: How do the 2060 concentrations for the three different scenarios of Table 2 compare with each other? Q15: T/F the predicted 2030 concentration depends very strongly on the assumed emission scenario. Q16: T/F the predicted 2060 concentration depends very strongly on the assumed emission scenario. Q17: A policy change aimed at limiting carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is implemented by a political agreement today will take ____________ years to result in observable differences in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. a. 5 years b. 10 years c. 20 years d. More than 20 years Q18: Based on your answers above and any other potentially important factors, discuss the political incentives and disincentives to proposing legislation to curtail carbon emissions. *Actually in the present model the CO2 concentration will never get back to 280 because plate tectonics have been omitted from the model so there is no way that carbon can be permanently removed from the climate system with this model. Reset, check the 2000 to 2100 run radio button, and set Terrestrial Sink to Part 2 value. Devise your best future emission scenario for estimating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for the rest of this century. Use a web based search and your intuition for rationale in selecting your emission scenario. (explain your rationale 100 words minimum) Explain your rationale here. Paste both the CO2 graph and the emission graph into your report for this scenario. R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 8 Modeling carbon dioxide concentration changes Use the assumption that limiting atmospheric CO2 concentration to 450 ppm or below will result in adaptable climate change as a benchmark to discuss to possible implication of your emission scenario to our future climate. (100 words minimum) Paste Graphs and enter comments here. References 1. Yude Pan et al., A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests Science 333, 988 (2011) 2. Mauna Loa CO2 data from: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2013/ R. M. MacKay, Clark College Physics and Meteorology 9