Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City 2008
National Disaster Management Authority
Government of Pakistan
July 2008
ii
Contents
Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..iii
Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………....iv
General…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..1
Aim………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..2
Scope…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….2
Tropical Cyclone………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….2
Case Studies Major Cyclones………………………..……………………………………… ……………………….3
Historical Perspective – Cyclone Occurrences in Pakistan…...……………………………………….................6
General Information - Karachi ….………………………………………………………………………………….…7
Existing Disaster Response Structure – Karachi………………………. ……………………….…………….……8
Scenarios for Tropical Cyclone Impact in Karachi City ……………………………………………………….…..11
Scenario 1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………….…..11
Scenario 2. ……………………………………………………………………………………………….….13
Response Scenario -1…………………… ……………………………………………………………………….…..14
Planning Assumptions……………………………………………………………………………………....14
Outline Plan……………………………………………………………………………………………….….15
Pre-response Phase…………………………………………………………………………………….… 16
Mid Term Measures……………………………………………………………………..………..16
Long Term Measures…………………...…………………….…………………………..……...20
Response Phase………… ………………………..………………………………………………..………21
Provision of Early Warning……………………. ......……………………………………..……21
Execution……………………….………………………………..………………..……………....22
Health Response……………….. ……………………………………………..………………..24
Coordination Aspects…………………………………………….………………………...………………25
Annexes
A - Basic Terms & Definitions……………………………………………….. ……................................22
B - History of Cyclone - Pakistan………………………………………..………………….……………..25
C- Precipitation Data Karachi………….............................................................................................26
D- CDGK Rain & Flood Emergency Plan 2008…………………………………………………............27
E - Overall Assets Available………………………………………………………………………………..33
F- Graphic Illustrations of Scenarios………………………………………………………………………34
G - Likely Humanitarian Impact of Cyclone in Karachi………...………………………………………..40
H- Hospitals in Karachi…………………………………………………………………………….............42
J - Resource Persons.……………………………………………………………………………………....44
P - Karachi Map………………………………………………………………………………..………........45
iii
Acronyms
CDGK
CAA
COMKAR
DDMA
DG
DHA
DO
DCO
EPI
EDO
GOP
HQ
INGO
JPMC
KM/H
KDA
KESC
KSEW
KSWB
KBCA
KPT
LRBT
MSA
MW
MM
MOH
NGO
NIH
OBM
PDMA
PMD
PHC
PTCL
PN
PAF
SAR
SITE
SOP
SSGC
TMA
US
UN
UC
VHF
WAPDA
WMO
City District Government Karachi
Civil Aviation Authority
Commander Karachi
District Disaster Management Authority
Director General
Defence Housing Society
District Officer
District Coordination Officer
Expanded Program on Immunization
Executive District Officer
Government of Pakistan
Head Quarters
International Non Governmental Organization
Jinnah Postgraduate Medical College
Kilo Meters Per Hour
Karachi Development Authority
Karachi Electric Supply Company
Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works
Karachi Sewerage & Water Board
Karachi Building Control Authority
Karachi Port Trust
Layton Rahmatulla Benevolent Trust Eye Hospital
Maritime Security Agency
Mega Watt
Milli Metre
Ministry of Health
Non Governmental Organization
National Institute of Health
Out Board Motor
Provincial Disaster Management Authority
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Primary Health Care
Pakistan Telecommunication Authority
Pakistan Navy
Pakistan Air Force
Search and Rescue
Sindh Industrial & Trading Unit
Standard Operating Procedures
Sui Southern Gas Company
Tehsil Municipal Administration
United States
United Nations
Union Council
Very High Frequency
Water & Power Development Authority
World Meteorological Organization
iv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.
In the aftermath of Earthquake of 2005, Government of Pakistan through an ordinance constituted
a comprehensive disaster management system to deal with the whole spectrum of disaster risk reduction
(Management). Accordingly National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) was established under the
chairmanship of the Prime Minister with the mandate of policy formulation at National level. National
Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) was created to act as the implementing and coordinating body of
the NDMC. In light of NDMA’s National Disaster Risk Management Frame work, NDMA has initiated
preparation of contingency plans in different sub sectors of disaster risk reduction/ management.
2.
Keeping in view the economic importance of Karachi city being the nerve centre of National
Economy and gateway of Pakistan vis-à-vis imports and exports of the country, it became imperative to
prepare a disaster management plan for Karachi, with focus on tropical cyclone. So NDMA as a first step,
has prepared a cyclone contingency plan for Karachi.
3.
The contingency planning exercise aims at sensitizing Karachi City stakeholders on the grave
threat posed by a cyclone and its possible humanitarian consequences. This exercise relies on primary
sources in developing scenarios, recorded history of cyclone occurrence in Pakistan and in gauging the
state of preparedness of key stakeholders in Karachi to a possible cyclone impact.
4.
With population of over 15 million spread over 18 towns covering nearly 3530 square kilometres,
Karachi is built to generally poor urban development standards which makes it very vulnerable to natural
and man made disasters. Even moderate to high rains tend to bring parts of the City to a standstill with
excessive flooding of low lying areas and consequent disruption/ damage to the communication
infrastructure. Though Karachi has not experienced cyclone impact as yet, but cyclones have gone close to
it like Yemyin causing much losses in the form of human toll and fallen infrastructure in 2007. Cyclones have
also recorded land falls in the adjoining districts of Thatta and Badin. Karachi is vulnerable to a major
earthquake as numerous fault lines traverse close to the city. A destructive tsunami wave generated by a
7.8 Richter Scale earthquake played much havoc off the Balochistan coast west of Karachi in 1945.
5.
With regard to the rain emergencies, City District Government Karachi (CDGK), its constituent
towns and independent corporations and public sector entities like Pakistan Steel Mills, Port and Airport
Authorities, armed forces and Maritime Security Agency have plans for response, though integrating diverse
stakeholders’ response remains a challenge. However, no plans exist for responding to a possible cyclone
landing.
6.
In the absence of historical records of cyclone occurrence in Karachi, Pakistan Meteorological
Department has framed two scenarios. Scenario 1 depicts a Cyclone Category III or above landfall in
Karachi City. Its key impacts are: (1) a storm surge wave of 12-15 feet or above which is likely to traverse 5
kilometers in to the City, (2) strong winds up to 116-222 kmh, and (3) heavy rainfall approximating 200 -225
v
mm. The significant risks that it poses are that significant population segments are likely to be marooned /
isolated. High winds are likely to cause widespread damage and take a heavy human toll. Blockage of
storm water drains is likely to accentuate the post cyclone flood impact and relief operations are likely to be
seriously undermined due to flooding of essential communication infrastructure. Break down of essential
services like electricity and water will accentuate the humanitarian impact of the disaster. Most significantly,
relative lack of preparation of Karachi City for cyclone response i.e absence of shelters, evacuation plans
and poor state of emergency response services makes the City increasingly vulnerable. The impact of
Scenario 2, the milder version, approximates heavy rains in Karachi City.
7.
Extrapolating impact of Scenario 1 on Karachi City with the help of its key stakeholders, CDGK in
particular, about 670,700 population will require relief support, 4,667,900 are likely to be affected, and
1,825,800 will have to be evacuated from five worst affected towns of Korangi, Saddar, Kemari, Lyari and
Defence Housing Authority.
8.
More emphasis must be given to prepare the City for such an eventuality by putting in place
relatively long term preparatory measures. These include cyclone impact hazard mapping, preparing
cyclone shelters, improving coastal cyclone protection works, dredging of storm water drains / channels,
defining articulation of control and resource mapping for response, registration of fishermen boats and
isolated coastal localities for communication of early warning, community awareness and mobilization for
response and creating a vulnerable population evacuation plan.
9.
To conclude, while this contingency planning exercise should be perceived as a first step in
addressing response to a possible cyclone landing in Karachi city; however, a deliberate exercise should
follow which should benefit from computer based cyclone risk mapping/modelling and which also draws
from wider inputs from key Karachi City stakeholders.
1
General
1.
Karachi is a disaster prone city. Global warming related hydro- meteorological hazards tend to
occur with increasing frequency in the shape of sustained rains. Cyclones have made landfall in the
adjoining districts of Thatta and Badin. Karachi is also located dangerously close to numerous fault-lines
that can trigger a devastating earthquake, though it has experienced milder versions. The City has also
grown phenomenally in size over the past decades but the development has occurred to very poor
standards. Flood water drainage system tends to get chocked even in moderate rains bringing parts of the
City to a standstill. High rise buildings have proliferated with scant regards to relevant safety codes.
2.
Given the scale of man made and natural hazards that occur in Karachi, emergency response
services of the City are not suited for localized employment due to limited capacities. They are manned by
largely ill trained human resource and they are not served by mechanisms that facilitate integrated
response. We must also bear in mind that City District Government of Karachi (CDGK) does not administer
significant segments of the City like cantonment areas and Defence Housing Authority (DHA). The shared
governance arrangements tend to retard enforcement of common standards both in urban development and
in responding to disasters.
3.
With reference to the ongoing monsoon season, this is meant to be a quick contingency planning
exercise for Karachi City with regards to tropical cyclone hazard in which possible impact of a cyclone on
the city would be examined. Historical records do not substantiate occurrence of such a scenario, though in
2007 cyclones Gonu and Yemyin went past south of the City to impact coast of Oman and Balochistan,
respectively. Strong wind and rains generated by Cyclone Yemyin caused about 150 deaths in the City
mainly due to felling of bill boards, electrocution and collapse of flimsily developed infrastructure. It may also
be noted that in all probability cyclone impact would spread much beyond Karachi to impact the adjoining
districts of Thatta and Badin and Hyderabad City or even beyond. However, this study is restricted to its
impact on Karachi City.
4.
Given the time restraints this is a summarized contingency planning exercise based on inputs
received from PMD and key stakeholders of Karachi City. It will be followed by a deliberate exercise that
would benefit from computer modeling and elaborate inputs from key stakeholders.
Aim
5.
Undertake contingency planning based on the scenario depicting tropical cyclone hazard impacting
Karachi City, define associated risks, planning assumptions, and preparatory cum response measures.
Scope
6.
Scope of Cyclone Contingency Plan for Karachi City 2008, is as follows:-
a.
Briefly study the phenomenon of tropical cyclone occurrence with historical examples with
a view to draw pertinent conclusions.
2
b.
Introduce Karachi City, its administrative structures and role of its stakeholders in disaster
response.
c.
Identify cyclone impact scenarios for Karachi City, summaries risks and planning
assumptions.
d.
7.
Proposed preparatory and response measures.
This exercise relies on primary sources in developing scenarios, recording history of cyclone
occurrence in Pakistan and in gauging the state of preparedness of key stakeholders in Karachi to a
possible cyclone impact on the City. Secondary sources have been accessed in studying historical
examples and in developing general information on tropical cyclone occurrence.
Tropical Cyclones1
8.
Tropical cyclone is a generic term used for defining cyclonic activity originating over tropical or sub-
tropical waters with a definite cyclonic surface wind circulation. Such storms generally occur in South West
and East Indian Ocean and also in the South Pacific. Tropical cyclones tend to occur in May – June or
October – December periods. Such storms generate three types of consequent impact that cause
much destruction in their wake:-
a.
Storm Surge Wave. It normally occurs from shoreward movement of water under the
action of wind stress. Another contributing factor could be rise of water owing to low
barometer pressure that is caused due to the metrological depression that precedes a
cyclone. Depending on the strength of the storm and coastal topography storm surge
may penetrate up to 20 kilometres inland.
9.
b.
Strong Winds. These precede, accompany and follow a cyclone in its wake.
c.
Torrential Rains. Tend to impact a much adjoining regions.
Cyclone Storm Categories
a.
Category 1.
Depression/ Deep Depression with wind speeds between 17-33 knots
(31 – 61 kmh).
b.
Category II.
Cyclonic Storm with wind speed between 34 – 47 knots ( 62 – 88 kmh).
c.
Category III.
Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds between 48 – 63 knots (89 –
118 kmh).
d.
Category IV.
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds between 64 -119 knots
(119 -221 kmh).
e.
1
Category V.
Super Cyclonic Storm with wind speeds above 120 knots ( 221 kmh).
http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/in.acronyms.html (source of definitions)
3
Case Studies – Major Cyclones
10.
In the South Asian region, the northern part of Bay of Bengal is known to generate some of the
most devastating cyclones. Out of the ten recorded cases of loss of life ranging from 40,000 to 200,000
owing to cyclonic activity in the world, eight have occurred in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (five in
Bangladesh and three in India). World’s highest cyclone storm tide of 45 feet height landed in 1876 in
Bakherganj near Meghna estuary in Bangladesh. We will briefly review some historical examples related to
the South Asian region. Basic definitions and information related to classification of tropical cyclone, are
given at Annex A.
11.
1999 Orissa Cyclone2. The cyclone storm impacted Orissa coast on 29 October 1999 as a
Category V super cyclone. Its wind speed on impact was about 250 kmh and the storm surge wave rose to
26 feet and travelled more than 20 kilometers inland. Its humanitarian impact and damage is as follows:-
12.
a.
10,000 killed.
b.
1.67 million rendered homeless and 175,000 houses destroyed.
c.
19.5 million affected.
d.
2.5 million livestock perished.
e.
17,000 square kilometers of crop destroyed.
f.
Considerable soil erosion occurred in the affected regions.
g.
Economic damage was estimated at $ 4.5 billion.
The response was mostly indigenous as Indian government refused external assistance. In terms
of response management, the local authorities were by and large able to early warn and also evacuate the
severely hit districts and vulnerable population was protected by storm shelters.
13.
1991 Cyclone in Bangladesh. It was one of the deadliest cyclones ever recorded. It made a
landfall in Chittagong district in south-eastern Bangladesh on 28 April 1991. Its speed on costal impact was
approximately 250 kmh. The storm surge wave rose to 20 feet on coastal impact and went 15- 20 kilometers
inland. Its humanitarian and economic impact is as follows:-
2
a.
138,000 killed.
b.
10 million rendered homeless. More than 1 million homes destroyed.
c.
2 million evacuated before storm impact.
d.
Overall damages estimated at $ 1.5 billion.
e.
Chittagong Port and adjoining naval and Air Force bases suffered extensive damage.
f.
Massive land erosion occurred and millions of trees uprooted.
http://en,wikipedia.org/wiki/tropical_Cyclone_05B
4
14.
Hurricane Katrina’s Impact on New Orleans in 20053.
Katrina impacted New Orleans,
Louisiana, North Central Gulf Coast, Bahamas, South Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Cuba. The Cyclone
was formed on 23 August 2005 and it impacted upon New Orleans on 28 August with a speed of 280 kmh
as a Category V Cyclone. Immediate response was from Army Corps of Engineers. 57 coastal communities
were provided shelter. Its humanitarian impact is as follows:-
15.
a.
1,836 killed.
b.
26,000 provided relief.
c.
3 Million people affected.
d.
Economic damage worth approximately $ 80 billion.
Conclusions
a.
Ability of the national / regional early warning agencies to track Cyclone formation and its
route from inception till impact in a coordinated manner. This information should be
disseminated to relevant stakeholders.
b.
Capacity of national, regional and local agencies to early warn the vulnerable
communities using media and all other resources.
c.
Development of well rehearsed cyclone evacuation plans and mobilization of emergency
logistic support.
d.
Building of cyclone shelters as per contingency planning.
e.
Ensuring evacuation of the vulnerable population into storm shelters as per local
contingency plans.
f.
Generating awareness among vulnerable communities on all aspects relevant to their
response and survival including evacuation to shelters.
g.
Ensuring mobilization of administrative resources to force evacuation of likely victims from
vulnerable regions.
h.
The humanitarian toll indicates relative preparedness to cyclone impact being the poorest
in case of the Bangladesh Cyclone of 1991. Weakness lay in inability to early warn
vulnerable communities or to force evacuation where needed.
Historical Perspective - Cyclone Occurrences in Pakistan
16.
Over the past years cyclones tend to recur frequently though, most did not seriously impact
Pakistan’s coast. However, cyclone of 1999 seriously impacted Thatta and Badin districts of Sindh and
affected 0.6 million people and caused loss of 202 lives. Cyclone Yemyin in 2007 had a much wider imprint
3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
5
affecting 26 districts of Balochistan / Sindh and 2.5 million people, causing 400 fatalities. History of cyclone
occurrence along and on the Pakistan coast is given at Annex B.
17.
Lessons Learnt
a.
Establishment of an efficient mechanism to respond to natural hazards / calamities is
imperative to minimize loss of life and property by initiating requisite mitigation measures
and by initiating a well coordinated response in the event of such an eventuality. Lot is
required to be done in this regard, i.e. establishment of PDMAs/DDMAs to perform these
tasks efficiently.
b.
No contingency plan existed with District Government for a coastal region evacuation.
c.
Local communities should be made aware of the rains / cyclone hazards and should be
involved in local contingency planning.
d.
Employment of armed forces helicopters should be factored in evacuation, search and
rescue operations.
e.
Responsibilities of the line departments to be clearly identified, especially for camp
management.
f.
Revenue Department’s capacities should be built for post disaster assessment and
management.
g.
Essential rescue equipment should be pre-positioned in vulnerable areas.
h.
Mobile civil – military medical teams should be constituted to work against epidemic
outbreak and to provide emergency first aid.
i.
As part of preparatory measures surface water drains in urban areas should be routinely
cleaned to avoid local flooding.
j.
Outreach veterinary services should be provided to administer vaccination and to provide
feed to animals.
k.
Arrangement should be made for apt media handling to pre-empt disinformation and
unfounded alarms.
General Information - Karachi (Map attached as Annex P)
18.
With a population of 15 million plus, Karachi City is divided into 20 administrative units, which
include 18 towns, cantonment areas and DHA. The population varies from 1 million plus in Landhi and New
6
Karachi to 300,000 plus in DHA. The City is spread over 3,530 Square kilometers. Population of Karachi
City Towns is reflected below.
S.No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
19.
Town
Saddar
Jamshed Town
North Nazimabad
Gulberg
SITE
Shah Faisal
Gulshan-e-Iqbal
Landhi
Korangi
New Karachi
Cantonment
DHA
Baldia
Malir
Orangi
Bin Qasim
Kemari
Gadap
Lyari
Liaquatabad
Total
Population
Area in Acre
Pop Density
935,566
5,967
1,114,235
5,790
753,423
4,127
688,580
3,417
709,944
6,286
509,915
2,901
949,351
13,260
1,012,391
9,670
829,813
10,247
1,038,865
5,058
464,882
31,336
379,596
9,454
616,722
7,217
604,763
4,395
1,098,859
5,803
480,854
137,961
583,640
106,217
439,674
355,798
923,176
1,977
985,581
2,685
15,119,830
729,566
157
192
183
202
113
176
72
105
81
205
15
40
85
138
189
3
5
1
467
367
Karachi is vulnerable to earthquake and hydro-meteorological hazards. Numerous fault lines pass
in the close proximity of the City. In 1945 a major earthquake off the Mekran Coast measuring 7.8 on the
Richter scale generated a tsunami wave whose impact centered on Pasni along the Balochistan coast, west
of Karachi. A major earthquake could have a devastating impact on the City, given the fact that rapid
urbanization has occurred with little regards to coherent town planning or building codes.
20.
Moderate to severe rains (past data reflected at Annex C) tend to cause paralysis in large sections
of the City as water stagnates on major roads and inundates low lying areas bringing civic life to standstill.
Despite improvements, absence of an efficient water drainage system retards measures aimed at
addressing the problem. CDGK has made considerable efforts to open storm drains, which saved many
areas from flooding in 2007. Following 2007 experience, DHA has undertaken major works to improve storm
drainage.
21.
The natural drainage system of the City flows within and astride Malir and Lyari Rivers, which tend
to surge amid heavy rains and cause flooding of adjoining low lying areas. More than 500 storm water
drains serve the City but many are blocked due to debris accumulation or ill planned construction /
encroachments. Karachi City generates 8,000 tons of solid waste with the disposal capacity for 4,000 tons
per day. Excess waste ends up in storm water drains.
7
Existing Disaster Response Structure - Karachi
22.
Law and Order. Law and order situations are handled by Sindh Rangers (para-military force) and
Police, Army is called in to manage major civil disturbances.
23.
Fire Hazards and Medical Emergencies. Emergency response with regards to fire hazards and
medical emergencies are responded to by the local fire brigade and ambulance services.
24.
Miscellaneous Emergencies. CDGK
emergency response services respond to most
emergencies, various autonomous entities like Pakistan Steel Mills, Civil Aviation Authority, Port Authorities
and Cantonment areas maintain their own emergency response services which can be called upon to
respond to larger emergencies.
25.
Excessive Rains. Natural hazards mostly occur in the shape of rains approximating or exceeding
50 mm. City’s constituent towns, cantonment areas, DHA and independent authorities like CAA, KPT, Port
Qasim respond as per their well defined SOPs and emergency response plans. Excerpts from rains
emergency response plan of the CDGK is attached as Annexure D.
However, in case of major rains
affecting large segments of the City, CDGK assumes the role of central coordination and Army, Sindh
Rangers, naval units and other Federal agencies respond as per their defined role.
26.
Cyclone Early Warning. NDMA is responsible for issuing national wide alert based on PMD’s
input. PMD is responsible for cyclone early warning and for this purpose besides relying on its own
monitoring of cyclone weather systems that can possibly impact Pakistan; it also draws from the inputs of
WMO regional cyclone weather monitoring and by Joint Typhoon Warning System USA. Moreover, PMD
Cyclone Early Warning Centre is being created in Karachi. The work on the project is underway and it will
involve setting up of a number of automatic weather stations deployed along the coast and a high speed
computerised nerve centre.s It is likely to be operational in two years4. Graphic illustration of cyclone early
warning is given below:-
8
27.
Role of Key Stakeholders in Natural Disaster / Emergency Response
a.
Army - Headquarters 5 Corps5
(1)
Local Army units on requisitioning for relief operations within overall plan of
CDGK and PDMA.
(2)
Medical support.
(3)
Provision of rescue boats and related equipment . Details of overall available
assets are given at Annex E.
b.
Commander Karachi Pakistan Navy (COMKAR)6
(1)
Pakistan Navy participates both in SAR and relief efforts in the City and also in
similar operations along the coast. Navy’s flood response area in Karachi City
includes Kemari and Saddar.
(2)
Provision of rescue boats and related equipment . Details of overall available
assets are given at Annex E.
c.
Maritime Security Agency (MSA)7 . Provision of rescue boats and related equipment .
Details of overall available assets are given at Annex E.
d.
Summary of Key Response Agencies
S.No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Agency
PMD
PDMA
Armed Forces
CDGK
MSA
Coast Guards
Sind Rangers
KESCO
KSWB
CAA
KPT, Port Qasim
Police
Health
Fire brigade
Task
Early warning
Coordinate relief operation
SAR, Emergency response and relief
Relief operations, de-watering, emergency response
SAR, relief
SAR, relief
Response, law & order
Restoration of electricity
Restoration of potable water, dewatering
Restoration of air traffic
Restoration of port operations
Maintenance of law and order
Provision of medical first aid
Emergency response to fire outbreaks
Scenarios for Tropical Cyclone Impact - Karachi City
28.
Despite absence of historical data of cyclone impact on Karachi two scenarios have been identified
by PMD, which have been deliberated in the succeeding paragraphs.
5
Source: Brig Akhtar Rao, Commander Corps Engineers Karachi
Source: Commodore Iftikhar Ahmad. Principal Staff Officer
7
Source: Vice Admiral Tayyab Ali Dogar, DG MSA
6
9
29.
Scenario 1 – Cyclone Category III or above (Worst Case Scenario). It depicts a WMO defined
Category III cyclone storm or above making landfall in Karachi City. Its key impacts are depicted graphically
in Annexure F and are also summarised below: -
a.
Storm Surge Wave
(1)
It would start to impact Karachi City with increasing velocity when the Cyclone is
25-30 kilometres from the coast.
(2)
It reaches peak about 2 kilometres from the coast with maximum speed.
(3)
Height of the surge wave could range between 12-15 feet or above.
(4)
The wave is likely to travel up to 5 kilometres inland.
(5)
The topography of Karachi City adjoining the coast does not offer any natural
resistance to the tidal wave. Impediments would be in the shape of city
infrastructure or built up area.
(6)
Depending on the point of impact the water inflows would be regulated along the
road network and along Malir and Lyari rivers plus other storm water drains.
(7)
Immediate impact would be total paralysis within 3-5 kilometres of the coastal
region depending on the point of the impact of storm surge wave.
(8)
However communications paralysis can occur in low lying areas located much
deeper from the point of impact.
(9)
Conclusion. City authorities would have to evacuate population within atleast 2
kilometres along the coast.
b.
Storm Wind
(1)
Wind speed up to 64 – 120 knots (118-222 kmh) is expected.
(2)
Wind impact would commence when the cyclone is 25-30 kilometres from the
coast.
(3)
Its impact is most likely to be severe along the centre / eye of the cyclone.
(4)
Wind impact would vary depending on the direction / axis of the cyclone
movement.
(5)
c.
Wind pressure decreases as cyclone passes certain point.
Rainfall
(1)
Approximately 200 -225 mm rainfall (9-10 inches) is expected over a period of 36
hours in the City.
(2)
Its intensity is likely to be more pronounced along the centre / eye of the
cyclone.
10
d.
Water Backflow in to the Sea. On termination of cyclone impact water in major channels
would commence reverse flow towards the sea and this could occur from 3-4 days post
cyclone and could continue up to 1-2 weeks.
e.
Summary of Risks
(1)
Significant population segments are likely to be marooned / isolated due to storm
surge wave and ensuing heavy rains.
(2)
High winds are likely to cause widespread damage and take a heavy human toll
as was the case with Cyclone Yemyin.
(3)
Blockage of storm water drains is likely to accentuate the post cyclone flooding
impact.
(4)
Relief operations are likely to be seriously undermined due to flooding of
essential communication infrastructure.
(5)
Break down of essential services like electricity and water will accentuate the
humanitarian impact of the disaster.
(6)
Absence of shelters, evacuation plans and poor state of emergency response
services makes the City increasingly vulnerable to a cyclone.
(7)
Humanitarian toll of cyclone impact is likely to be very high due to dense
population and poorly planned infrastructure.
f.
Triggers
(1)
Early Warning of Tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal / North Arabian
Sea by PMD to key national stakeholders.
(2)
NDMA’s cyclone warning to PDMA Sindh and to CDGK.
(3)
PDMA and CDGK provides early warning to key stakeholders within City and
activate cyclone contingency plan.
g.
End State. Activation of routine life in Karachi City after termination / dissipation of key
indicators associated with storm impact, flooding of vulnerable parts of the City in
particular.
30.
Scenario 2 – Cyclone Category I / II
a.
It depicts up to WMO defined category II cyclone making a landfall in Karachi City, It is
graphically explained at Annex I and its principal impacts are as following:-
(1)
Strom Surge Wave. It is likely to be confined up to 3-5 feet with negligible
inland impact.
11
(2)
Rainfall. Approximately 50-75 mm over 24- 36 hours. Please bear in mind that
50 mm quantum of rains tends to paralyse civic life in the City.
(3)
Wind. Winds up to 25-30 knots (46 -64 kmh) is (are) expected.
(4)
Note. Scenario 2 equates with a heavy rainfall situation in the City for which a
workable response mechanism exists and is being further improved upon by
CDGK and PDMA.
b.
Triggers
(1)
Early Warning by PMD
(2)
Activation of high intensity rains contingency plan by CDGK and key
stakeholders
c.
End State. Activation of routine life in Karachi City after dissipation of cyclone and rains
impact
d.
Planning Assumptions. Corresponds with much practised planning assumptions
underlying multiple rain contingency planning for Karachi City.
e.
Likely relief caseload. Previous experience indicates it does not exceed 500 -1000 in
low lying areas of the City which is well within the capacity of CDGK and local voluntary
organisations like Eidhi Trust to manage. In relatively rain high impact situations armed
forces are pressed in for emergency / disaster response.
Response - Scenario 1
31.
Planning Assumptions
a.
There is no history of tropical cyclone land fall in Karachi City, therefore, cyclone impact
scenarios on Karachi City have been developed by PMD based on tropical cyclone
occurrence pattern in North Arabian Sea.
b.
Relief caseload consistent with humanitarian impact of Scenario 1 is 670,800 and overall
affected population stands at 4,667,900.
c.
It is assumed that most vulnerable towns / localities have been partially evacuated prior to
the cyclone impact.
d.
Relief caseload is planned for 30 days.
e.
There will be a need to evacuate approximately 1,825,900 population from five worst
affected towns of Karachi: Korangi, DHA, Saddar, Kemari and Lyari.
f.
Establishment of hygienically safe camps for evacuees and proper administration having
adequate shelters, food and medical facilities.
12
g.
Cyclone impact on Karachi City would have a wider impact in the neighbouring districts,
along the coast and towards North in the shape of rainfall and severe winds, but it is not
being factored in the response which remains confined to Karachi City.
h.
32.
Humanitarian impact of Scenario I is explained at Annex G.
Outline Plan
a.
Pre-Response Phase (CDGK and PDMA)
(1)
Draft NDMA cyclone contingency plan can form the basis for sensitisation of
diverse stakeholders of Karachi City with the aim to facilitate them in making a
more elaborate multi-stakeholders situation based contingency plan.
(2)
Crystallisation of multi-stakeholders cyclone contingency plan for Karachi City by
CDGK and PDMA.
(3)
Contingency planning for vulnerable population evacuation and earmarking
spaces for relief camps by CDGK.
(4)
Preparation of temporary shelters in vulnerable urban and rural locations by
CDGK.
b.
Response Phase (Led by CDGK and PDMA)
(1)
Dissemination of Early Warning.
(2)
Media utilization to forewarn affected population regarding impending cyclone
threat.
(3)
Affecting evacuation of population from the most vulnerable towns / locations.
(4)
SAR and relief operation led by armed forces when requisitioned.
(5)
Establishment of relief camps and temporary shelters.
(6)
Concurrent restoration of essential services and dewatering of essential routes
and low lying areas through PDMA / CDGK / relevant departments of provincial
government.
(7)
Concurrent health response to address emergency health needs and pre-empt
outbreak of epidemics by Provincial Health Department and private sector.
(8)
c.
Disbursement of relief compensation for the dead, injured and shelter less.
Early Recovery Phase (CDGK and PDMA)
(1)
Dewatering of low lying areas and other necessary measures aimed at preempting outbreak of epidemics.
(2)
Immediate assessment of damages.
13
(3)
Restoration of essential services and repair of damaged infrastructure
particularly relating to restoration of electricity, potable water supply, gas and
sewerage.
(4)
Launching of livelihood programmes.
(5)
Provision of semi-permanent housing to the shelter less.
(6)
Support for restoration of government administrative mechanism, both for
provincial and City governments.
(7)
Restoration of harbour services, railways, industrial activity to lessen cyclone
impact on local / national economy.
(8)
Assessments by Federal Government / donor agencies for long term
rehabilitation.
(9)
33.
Resource mobilisation for long term rehabilitation.
Pre-Response Phase (Mitigation Measures)
a.
Medium Term Measures
(1)
NDMA / CDGK / PMD/ PDMA to ensure following:-
(a)
Computer simulation model based hazard mapping for defining the
precise cyclone impact relevant to various scenarios.
(b)
PMD should be associated with this exercise and appropriate
international expertise be sought.
(2)
Resource Mapping for Response
(a)
CDGK / All Stakeholders
i.
Will take stock of food and potable water reserves and ensure
maintenance as per contingency planning.
ii.
Will undertake detailed resource mapping for all types of
equipment available with private and and public sectors that
can facilitate response. Equipment will range from heavy plant,
dredgers, heavy duty generators etc to life saving boats,
jackets, communication equipment required for response.
iii.
Availability of transport for affecting pre-cyclone evacuation will
also be mapped.
iv.
Resource inventory will be built up through consultations with
multiple stakeholders through a detailed planning process.
(b)
All Stakeholders for Response. Will participate in this exercise.
14
(3)
Registration of Fishermen Boats and Isolated Coastal Localities for Early
Warning and Generating Awareness
(a)
MSA / Coast Guards / CDGK / Distt Govt Thatta & Badin. Undertake
registration of isolated fishermen / coastal villages.
(b)
MSA
i.
Facilitate provision of VHF communication to all registered
fishermen boats for dissemination of Cyclone early warning.
ii.
Facilitate awareness among fishermen communities with
regards to Cyclone warning and response.
(c)
CDGK / Distt Govt Thatta & Badin. Establish communications with
isolated fishermen / coastal communities for furnishing cyclone early
warning and also generate awareness among them with regards to
cyclone response.
(4)
Community Awareness for Early Warning and Response. All stakeholders
will ensure following:-
(a)
Will identify means and methods for inculcating vulnerable communities
awareness to cyclone response with regards to its key elements like
dissemination of early warning, plans for evacuation and accessing
shelters.
(b)
Identify local NGOS which can assist in community awareness and
mobilisation for response and involve them in the process.
(c)
Identify volunteers / volunteer organizations which can assist various
facets of response like provision of emergency healthcare and relief
items.
(5)
Vulnerable Population Evacuation Plan
(a)
CDGK / Cyclone Vulnerable Towns. Jointly prepare cyclone
evacuation plan with alternative options consistent with route layout and
various contingencies being considered.
(b)
Armed Forces. Will also prepare cyclone evacuation plan relevant to
DHA and cantonment areas under cyclone Threat. Plan will be made in
coordination with CDGK.
15
(c)
CDGK / Armed Forces
i.
The evacuation plan should be prepared and implemented in a
flexible manner to avoid traffic congestion and jams to the
extent possible.
ii.
Local media to be employed in sensitizing public both on
cyclone early warning and on what to do and what to avoid
with regards the evacuation plan.
iii.
Contingency plans to be prepared for employment of Rangers /
police force / local administration in enforcing evacuation of
most critical areas.
(6)
Articulation of Command and Control.
Since search and rescue and
immediate relief would entail aerial and water borne operations, therefore,
PDMA/CDGK in consultation with HQ 5 Corps will be responsible for these
operations. Relief Coordinator ex 5 Corps will head a Composite Team
(comprising representatives ex Army, Navy, PAF, CAF, MSA, Coast Guards,
Port Authorities and Cantonment Areas) to coordinate relief operations in
consultation with PDMA.
(a)
(b)
Diagrammatic layout is as under:-
16
(b)
PDMA/CDGK. Lead integrated planning for cyclone disaster response
for Karachi City.
(c)
Provincial Government / CDGK.
Responsible for restoration of
essential services and dewatering of worst affected areas & major
roads.
(d)
Local Town Govts / Cantonment Areas / Port Authorities /
Independent Corporate Bodies
i.
Will respond to disaster as per their local response plans but
under the overall coordination of PDMA/CDGK.
ii.
All stakeholders will identify focal person for response and
clear responsibilities (with well defined SOP’s) for response
both of stakeholders and their key / point persons will be
spelled out.
b.
Long Term Measures
(1)
Preparing Cyclone Shelters
(a)
CDGK / PMD/ Consultants. Undertake survey of population likely to be
evacuated due to cyclone impact using computer modelling. It will yield
need assessments for shelter preparation.
(b)
CDGK.
i.
Plan for absorption of population within relatively unaffected
Towns of the City.
ii.
Identify cyclone shelters within seriously cyclone affected
towns to provide local protection
iii.
Identify locations for making new cyclone shelters along Super
Highway, Furqan Trust and Eidhi Village in Malir (locations
recommended by City stakeholders)
(c)
Provincial Govt / CDGK. Develop shelters as per need assessments.
However, it is strongly recommended that international / regional best
practices regarding storm shelter preparation should be studied before
undertaking this capital intensive assignment.
17
(2)
Improving Cyclone Protection Works along the City Coast
(a)
CDGK / DHA. A master plan to be developed under expert supervision
to improve upon the existing tidal wave / cyclone protection works along
the City coast.
(b)
CDGK / DHA / affected Towns. Consequently improve upon the City
coastal region protection work for affording / improving defence against
a tropical storm surge as part of coastal development plans.
(c)
Relevant Stakeholders. International / regional best practices in
developing cyclone protective works to safeguard mega cities to be
studied before undertaking this exercise.
(3)
Dredging of Storm Water Channels and improving upon water outflow.
CDGK and Townships will ensure following:-
(a)
Dredging regular storm water drains and keeping their flow channels
open as part of disaster risk reduction efforts.
(b)
Ensure that storm water channels outflow is not impeded as a
consequence of town planning.
34.
Response Phase
a.
Provision of Early Warning. PDMA/CDGK should streamline responsibilities for
dissemination of early warning so that none among the vulnerable segments of the City
are missed out in disseminating early warning. Details are as under:-
(1)
NDMA. Early warns through dissemination of cyclone situation reports to key
Federal, Provincial and local stakeholders.
(2)
PMD in close coordination with NDMA and CDGK
(a)
Provides Cyclone alert (3-4 days in advance).
(b)
Provides cyclone watch as it nears its destination.
(c)
Provides cyclone advisories 4-6 hours earlier than impact (Cyclone
warning).
(d)
Cyclone advisories are disseminated through website/media and by
telephone / fax to relevant stakeholders.
(3)
PDMA
(a)
Disseminates early warning to CDGK, neighboring districts and isolated
localities and fishermen organizations.
18
(b)
Coordinate evacuation of vulnerable communities and establishment of
Relief Camps in consultation with CDGK and other stakeholders.
(4)
CDGK.
Early warns all towns in Karachi City, industrial areas like SITE,
Pakistan Steel Mills andPort Authorities.
(5)
Town Administrations. Disseminate early warning to local residents
(6)
Armed Forces. Inform all ground, aerial and sea based elements (formation) to
allow time for taking preventive measures to minimize loss.
(7)
MSA. Informs fishermen at sea for return to port / adoption of preventive
measures to minimize loss.
(8)
Coast Guards. Informs fishermen and vessels at sea for return to port / adopting
preventive measures.
(9)
b.
KPT. Provides early warning to Minora and Bhit and Baba islands.
Execution (Armed forces are involved only after requisitioning)
(1)
Sindh Govt/ PDMA Sindh. PDMA Sindh will coordinate Federal and provincial
support to CDGK and Provincial line departments will reinforce their counterpart
agencies within CDGK.
(2)
Armed Forces, Sindh Rangers, MSA and Coast Guards. Will be working in
consultation with PDMA / CDGK to undertake following operations:-
(3)
(a)
SAR.
(b)
Immediate relief to include provision of food and potable water.
(c)
Emergency medical support.
CDGK. Operating under overall coordination of PDMA, CDGK will undertake
following tasks while working
in concert with affected Town / DHA
Administration:-
(a)
Dewatering of routes / roads critical for response.
(b)
Dewatering of vulnerable low lying areas.
(c)
Assist in disposal of the dead.
(4)
KESC. Provide essential electricity required to support relief operations.
(5)
KSWB. KSWB to accord priority to restoration of potable water in priority worst
hit areas.
(6)
CAA
(a)
Secure airplanes and key facilities at the Karachi Airport from cyclone
impact.
19
(b)
Restore normal operations of Karachi airport within 12-18 hours to
reinforce support of relief operations.
(c)
Operationalise Hyderabad as an alternative airport for supporting relief
operations in Karachi (would depend on cyclone impact on Hyderabad).
(d)
(7)
Operationalise emergency response plan.
Pakistan Steel Mills. Take all precautionary measures to minimize damage to
essential infrastructure and restore normal operations with minimum loss of time.
(8)
Pakistan Railways. Restore operations in Landhi, Cantonment and City Railway
stations with minimum loss of time to support relief operations.
(9)
Sui Southern Gas Company
(a)
Restore gas supply to worst affected regions within 12-18 hours.
(b)
Enact local emergency response plan.
(c)
Support overall relief operations as per defined priority.
(10)
DHA. Ensure evacuation / occupation of cyclone shelters as per local plans.
(11)
Sindh Rangers and Local Police
(a)
Participate in relief operations in concert with PDMA/CDGK and HQ 5
Corps.
(b)
(12)
Reinforce law and order in the City.
KPT and PQA
(a)
Take requisite measures to safeguard infrastructure on port and ensure
exit of ships before Cyclone impact as per SOP.
(b)
Ensure securing of containers to avoid collateral damage to port
premises.
(13)
Media Management. To be overseen by Ministry (department) of Information
Govt of Sind, who will be provided inputs by PDMA CDGK and other key
agencies responsible for relief operations.
c.
Health Response (Provincial Health Department)
(1)
Besides providing emergency health care to the affected population the health
response to cover risk of spread of epidemic prone diseases like acute watery
diarrhoea, typhoid fever, malaria and measles, relapsing of fever and acute
respiratory illness.
20
(2)
Articulation of health response will be coordinated by DG Health Sindh. It should
be based on mass casualty management plan, after mapping all available health
facilities.
(3)
(4)
Preparedness of health response would entail:-
(a)
Coordination under DG Health Sindh
(b)
Setting / reinforcing disease surveillance system for Karachi City
(c)
Human resource data base should be created
(d)
100% EPI coverage should be ensured
Response activities will include:-
(a)
PHC service delivery and referral
(b)
Disease surveillance and case management
(c)
Immunisation
(d)
Vector Control
(e)
Health Education and Hygiene promotion
(f)
Health service delivery monitoring
Note. Major hospitals of Karachi city are reflected at Annexure H.
35.
Coordination Aspects
a.
NDMA. Plan, coordinate and monitor national response and post cyclone recovery in
Karachi City (if required).
b.
Armed Forces (On requisitioning)
(1)
Pakistan Army. Reinforce army assets, if required, for execution of relief
operations while according priority to aviation support, water borne relief delivery
capacity building, provision of emergency shelter, emergency healthcare and
camp management.
(2)
Pakistan Navy. Reinforce capacity for aviation support, water borne relief
capacity in urban areas and deep sea SAR capacity.
(3)
PAF
(a)
Provide strategic relief assistance through air assets.
(b)
Ensure early post cyclone operationalization of Faisal Air Base and
mobilise satellite bases in close proximity of Karachi to reinforce relief
operations.
(c)
Reinforce heliborne urban / deep sea relief capacity.
21
c.
d.
Civil Armed Forces.
(1)
Participate in relief operations in concert with PDMA/CDGK and HQ 5 Corps.
(2)
Reinforce law and order in the City.
Ministry of Health. Lead and coordinate health response thorough Provincial Health
Department.
e.
WAPDA.
Provide need based support to KESC for restoration of electric supply
particularly to reinforce the critical relief phase of the operation.
f.
UN Agencies and INGOs. (On request from NDMA and through Disaster Management
setups at local level)
(1)
Support preparatory measures.
(2)
Support of response / early recovery.
Note. Resource persons are included at Annexure J.
22
Annex A
BASIC TERMS & DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE OCCURRENCE
Depression: A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed is
between 17 and 33 knots (31 and 61 km/h). If the maximum sustained wind speed lies in the range
28 knots (52 km/h) to 33 knots (61 km/h) the system may be called a "deep depression".* A
cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed is between 22 and 33
knots (41 and 61 km/h. If the maximum sustained wind speed lies in the range 28 knots (52 km/h)
to 33 knots
(61 km/h) the system may be called a "deep depression".
Low or Low Pressure Area: An area enclosed by a closed isobar with minimum pressure inside
when mean surface wind is less than 17 knots (31 km/h).
Pre Cyclone Watch: This bulletin contains early warning about likely development of a cyclonic
storm and an indication of the coastal belt likely to experience adverse weather.
Severe Cyclonic Storm: A cyclonic disturbance in which the maximum average surface wind
speed is in the range of 48 to 63 knots (89 to 118 km/h).
Severe Cyclonic Storm with a Core of Hurricane Winds: A cyclonic disturbance in which the
average surface wind speed is 64 knots (119 km/h) or more.
Squally Wind: When sudden increases of wind speed occur in squalls with the increased speed
reaching a minimum of 22 knots (40 km/h) and persist for at least one minute.
Storm Season: The periods April to May and October to December during which most of the
cyclonic storms occur in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. The periods April to May and October
to mid-December during which most of the cyclonic storms occur in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian
Sea.
Storm Surge: The difference between the actual water level under the influence of a
meteorological disturbance (storm tide) and the level which would have been attained in the
absence of the meteorological disturbance (i.e. astronomical tide).
(Storm surge results mainly from the shoreward movement of water under the action of wind
stress. A minor contribution is also made by the hydrostatic rise of water resulting from the lowered
barometric pressure).
Storm Tide: The actual water level as influenced by a weather disturbance. The storm tide
consists of the normal astronomical tide and the storm surge.
Super Cyclone: A cyclonic disturbance in which maximum wind speed is 120 knots and above
(222 km/h and above).
Tropical Cyclone: Generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical
or sub-tropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation. The
term is also used for a storm in the South-West Indian Ocean in which the maximum of sustained
23
wind speed* is estimated to be in the range of 64 to 90 knots and in the South Pacific and SouthEast Indian Ocean with the maximum of the sustained wind speed over 33 knots.
(Note: *Maximum sustained wind speed: Average period of one, three, or ten minutes depending
upon the regional practices.)
Eye of the Tropical Cyclone: The relatively clear and calm area inside the circular wall of
convective clouds, the geometric centre of which is the centre of the tropical cyclone.
Gale Force Wind: Average surface wind speed of 34 to 47 knots (62 to 88 km/h).
Tropical Cyclone Advisory: A priority message for exchanging information, internationally, on
tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Speed of movement of the Tropical Cyclone: Speed of movement of the centre of the tropical
cyclone.
Classification of Tropical Cyclone Systems in the Region: Existing classification of low pressure
systems (cyclonic disturbances) in the Panel countries are given below together with the WMO
classifications.
Country
Type of Disturbance
Corresponding Wind Speed
Bangladesh
- Low pressure area
- Well marked low
- Depression
- Deep depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm with
a core of hurricane wind
- Super cyclonic storm
Less than 17 knots (31 km/h)
17-21 knots (31-40 km/h)
22-27 knots (51-51 km/h)
28-33 knots (52-61 km/h)
34-47 knots (62-88 km/h)
48-63 knots (8-118 km/h)
64-119 knots (119-221 km/h)
India
- Low pressure area
- Depression
- Deep depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Very severe cyclonic storm
- Super cyclonic storm
Less than 17 knots (31 km/h)
17-27 knots
28-33 knots
34-47 knots
48-63 knots
64-119 knots
120 knots and above
Maldives
- Low pressure area
- Depression
- Deep depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Very severe cyclonic storm
- Super cyclonic storm
Less than 17 knots
17-27 knots
28-33 knots
34-47 knots
48-63 knots
64-119 knots
120 knots and above
120 knots (222 kph) and above
24
Country
Type of Disturbance
Corresponding Wind Speed
Myanmar
- Low or low pressure area
- Depression
- Cyclonic Storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
Les than 17 knots
17-33 knots
34-63 knots
64 knots or more
Oman
- Low
- Depression
- Deep depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm of
Hurricane intensity
Less than 17 knots
17-28 knots
28-33 knots
34-47 knots
48-63 knots
64 knots or more
Pakistan
- Depression
- Deep Depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm of
Hurricane intensity
22-27 knots
28-33 knots
34-47 knots
48-63 knots
64 knots or more
Sri Lanka
- Low pressure area
- Depression
- Deep Depression
- Cyclonic storm
- Severe cyclonic storm
- Very severe cyclonic storm
- Super cyclonic storm
Less than 17 knots
17-27 knots
28-33 knots
34-47 knots
48-63 knots
64-119 knots
120 knots and above
Thailand
- Tropical depression
Up to 33 knots
- Tropical storm or Cyclonic storm 34-63 knots
- Typhoon or cyclone
64 knots or more
WMO
- Tropical depression
- Moderate tropical storm
- Severe tropical storm
- Hurricane (or local synonym)
- Tropical disturbance of
Unknown intensity
Winds up to 34 knot
Winds 34-47 knots
Winds 48-63 knots
Winds 64 knots and more
Wind speed uncertain
25
Annex B
HISTORY OF CYCLONES – PAKISTAN
Name / Year
Yemyin (June 2007)
Impact
Sindh & Balochistan
coastal and adjoining
regions
Gonu 15 June 2007
Rains along Sindh coast
and impacted in Oman
formed over
Nil
east central and adjoining northeast
Arabian Sea
Sindh – Thatta and Badin
Local.
Cyclone
impacted
with
a
reduced
impact
resulting in heavy local
precipitation
Southeast Arabian
Nil
Sea
Mild
East central Arabian sea
Nil
Nil
Seriously impacted
Sindh coast and Districts
of Thatta and Badin
202 died, Houses fully Major multi agency
/ partially damaged relief operation was
138,719
launched
East Central Arabian
Sea
Southeast Arabian
Sea
Nil
East Central Arabian sea
Nil
Nil
North Arabian Sea
Nil
Nil
Karachi and Thatta
10,000 affected
Severe
Tropical cyclone 04-A
“Mukda”
21-24 Sep 2006
Onil Oct 2004
Cyclonic storms formed
in during first fortnight
of May 2004
Severe cyclonic storm
formed in May 2001
Cyclone of May 1999
Cyclone storm
June 1996
Tropical storm
2nd fortnight
October 1996
Cyclone storm
June 1996
Tropical cyclone
Nov 1993
15 Dec 1965
Losses
2.5 million affected.
7 districts of
Balochistan and 2
of Sindh severely
affected
Nil
Response
Required National
Response
Nil
Local response
Nil
Nil
Did not impact
Pakistan coast
Source: Pakistan Metrological Department, Karachi
26
Annex C
PRECIPITATION DATA OF KARACHI CITY
Precipitation Pattern Karachi City - 2000-2007
2000
250
200
2001
150
2002
100
50
2003
0
2005
2006
Ju
l
A
ug
S
ep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Ju
n
2004
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay
Precipitation (mm)
300
2007
Months
Annual Precipitation
mm
Annual Precipitation Pattern Karachi City
2000-2007
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Precipitation mm
Mean Precipitation Data Karachi City-1971-2000
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Months
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Annual Precipitation from 1971-2000 is 181.6 mm
24 hrs Heaviest
Precipitation mm
24 Hours Heaviest Precipitation in Karachi City
from 1931-2007
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Months
Annual precipitation from 1931-2007 is 207 mm
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
27
CDGK RAIN & FLOOD EMERGENCY PLAN 2008
Average Rainfall
July
August
September
Total
Annex D
85.5 MM
67.5 MM
19.9 MM
172.8 MM
Main Factors Causing Rain Floods
• Heavy Rainfall received in a relatively short span of time.
•
Synchronization of the peak flood with high tide in the sea.
Impact of the Rain/Flood
Great disruption to the routine City Life:
• The Traffic System ceased to work.
• Failure of electric power.
• Flights & Train Schedule badly affected.
• Telephone/Communication Network went out of order.
• Sewerage System collapsed turning roads & Street into big pool of water.
• Road Infrastructure destroyed.
• Advertisement Boards/fall of trees – causing havoc & loss of precious lives.
• Katchi Abadis submerged and
• Inundation of main roads including Shahrah-e-Faisal.
• Significant increase in epidemic diseases like Gastroenteritis, Cholera, Malaria, Skin diseases and
Conjunctivitis
Causes of Deaths during Rain
• Electrocution from fallen down wires.
• Drowning in storm water drains and nullahs.
• Caving in of the houses.
• Failing of roofs of kutcha houses.
• Building collapse.
• Failing of walls.
• Failing of Sign boards/Hoardings, particularly of heavy steel structure.
• Contamination of drinking water.
Objectives
• In view of the previous experiences, it became imperative to introduced updated Rain Emergency
Plan with a systematic approach for the safety of property & lives of Karachiites and provision of
better relief to them.
•
•
•
To counter flood like situation in Lyari river, Gujro Nallah, Malir Nadi and their link nallahs during
heavy rain fall.
For awareness of concerned agencies/TMAs, where there are unauthorized settlements and their
inhabitants living in dangerous environments of River Beds.
A coordinated/comprehensive/update Rain Emergency Plan is very much needed to prevent &
manage the pre & post rain situation.
28
An Overview of Storm Water Drainage System
• Malir River System.
- Chakora Nullah.
- Thado Dam.
•
Lyari River System
- Gujjar
- Orangi
Streams Discharging Rain Water Directly in Sea
• Nehar – e – Khayam.
• Frere Nallah.
• Pitcher Nallah.
• Kalri Nallah.
• Railway Nallah.
• Soldier Bazar Nallah.
• Manzoor Colony.
Existing Situation
• Most of the drains are:
Heavily encroached
Choked with silt and garbage.
• Their water carrying capacity is at minimum level.
Identified Low Lying Areas in Karachi
 Otram Road.
 Talpur Road from I.I. Chundrigar Road to Wallace Road Railway Crossing.
 Dr. Ziauddin Ahmed Road from S.M. Law College Chowrangi to Mitharam Hostel.
 Shah-e-Liaquat (Arambagh).
 I.I. Chundrigar Road opposite GOP and from Uni-Tower to Cotton Exchange Building.
 Lilly Road Traffic signal to Cantt Plaza Hotel.
 Opposite Avari Hotel.
 Opposite Taj Mehal light Signal at Shahrah-e-Faisal.
 Refique Shaheed Road Opposite Cardio Vascular JPMC and Pir Bukhari turning.
 Khayaban-e-Iqbal.
 Boat Basin.
 Opposite Ideal Bakery to Roomi Matkiwala Street.
 Sunset Bolevard Road to Akhter colony (Korangi).
 M.A. Jinnah Road Opposite Tibbat Center, Saeed Manzil and Agha Khan Chowk.
 Agha Khan road Opposite Makki Masjid.
 Nishter Road.
 Agha Khan Road near Bambino Cinema.
 Shahrah-e-Faisal opposite FTC & Sindhi Muslim Society.
 Korangi Road near Kalapul.
 Aiwan-e-Saddar Road near Khajor Chowk.
 Club Road Crossing.
 Dr. Ziauddin Ahmed Road opposite Karachi Club.
 Near Clifton Bridge.
 Abdullah Haroon Road, Hotel Metropole, Hasho Chowk & Sindh Club Chowk.
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Near Clifton Bridge.
Khayaban-e-Iqbal (Three Sword Light Signal).
Ch. Khaliq-uz-Zaman Chowrangi.
Dr. Dawood Pota Road (Saddar Area).
Rashid Minhas road Johar Chowrangi, NIPA Chowrangi at Ramp.
Abul Hasan Isphani road near Sui Gas Company.
Zia Colony.
University Road Hasan Square Chowrangi.
University Road Opposite Urdu Science College.
Love lane Traffic Signal Nishter Road.
Business Recorder Road from Gurumondir to Lasbela.
Business Recorder Road at Fatmid cut.
M.A. Jinnah Road at Numaish light signal and Capri signal
New M.A. Jinnah Road.
Both the side of Lasbella Bridge.
Siddique Wahab Road at KMC out, Farooqi Masjid and Chowrangi.
Jehangir Road at various places from Gurumandir to Teen Hatti.
Surjani Town road.
University Road opposite Old Sabzimandi, Jail Chowrangi and Edhi Center.
Sh-e-Faisal from Sh-e-Quideen upto Bridge opposite Pir Bukhari Karsaz and Military Gate, Traffic
light signal both the sides.
From Qayyumabad Chowrangi upto express way.
Sir Shah Suleman Road at various places from Stadium Road to Hasan Square.
Stadium Road opposite Traffic Light Signal.
National Highway from Kala Board to Malir # 15 and on the upper side of Malir Bridge.
Landhi from 3 ½ to Korangi # 5.
Dawood Chowrangi towards Gulberg.
M.T. Khan Road from Tyre Wali Gali upto Mai Kolachi Traffic Signal
Bunder Road (Ghas Bunder).
At Jinnah Bridge
Mauripur Road from ICI Bridge to Mirza Adam Khan Road intersection.
At Kalri Nallah.
Estate Avenue Road at Gulbai Chowk, Paracha Chowk and Sher Shah Chowk.
Dockyard Road.
Mauripur Road from PAF Base Masroor to Truck Stand.
Chakiwara Road.
Mewa Shah Road.
Faqir Muhammad Bura Road.
Fakharuddin Valika Road.
Banarus Bridge.
Banaras Chowk.
Mangopir Road from Banarus Chowk to toward Manghopir.
Road in Orangi Town # 9
Last Year Experience.
• Last year water accumulated at following places:
•
Nursery at Sh-e-Faisal.
•
Falak Naz Appartment (Sh-e-Faisal)
30
•
Lea Market.
•
Manzoor Colony.
•
NIPA Roundabout.
•
Old Sabzi Mandi at University Road.
•
Marvick Road (Nishter Road).
•
Empress market.
Action Required
• De-silting of Storm Water Drains.
• Repair, maintenance and procurement of dewatering pump/suction pumps.
• Covering of Open Manholes and repairing of damaged Nallahs.
• Repair of Roads and filling of Deep Trenches.
• Identification of Troubled Areas.
• Activation of early Warning System.
• Prevention of deaths due to wire snapping/electrocution.
• Provision of Rescue teams.
• Establishment of Relief Camps.
• Dewatering of accumulated water.
• Prevention of infectious diseases/epidemics.
• Fumigation/Aerial Spray of affected Areas/River Beds.
• Cleanliness of water channels along the road sides for the smooth drainage of rain water.
• Provision of First aid & Medical Facilities.
• Monitoring of pre-defined areas through Mobile Teams.
Action Taken by CDGK
• The City Nazim Karachi conducted various meetings to review the arrangements being made to
face any eventuality.
• The DCO is holding frequent meetings with concerned departments i.e. Municipal Services, W&S,
Health, Master Plan, KBCA, KW&SB.
• The important utility agencies i.e. KESC, SSGC, PTCL have been advised to make the required
arrangements to face any eventuality.
• CDGK is in close contact with Additional Relief Commissioner and Met Office, warnings have
already been issued to all department concerned including all TMAs, UCs etc.
• All EDOs and TMOs have been instructed to activate their control rooms round the clock during
Moonsoon season.
• Pre-rain flood arrangements i.e. desilting of storm water drain started since March 2008. Priority
being given to low lying areas and vital infrastructure.
• As special monitoring and coordination cell to deal with rain flood has already been established in
DCO Camp Office located at Club Road, Karachi, which shall remain operative round the clock.
• Storm water drain constructed in Clifton and Gulshan-e-Faisal (Bath Island).
• All newly constructed Roads, Underpasses and Flyovers have been provided with storm water
drainage facility.
• 36 dewatering pumps have been provided to 18 TMAs.
• Rain Emergency Centers established in all 18 TMAs.
• Arrangements of portable generators and heavy machineries.
• New machinery worth 750 million have been purchased.
Truck (Payload not less than 5 tons)
20 Nos.
Excavator Wheel Mounted with Grab Crane
05 Nos.
Grab Crane Mounted Truck
04 Nos.
Scopic End Type Dump Truck for slug carrier
21 Nos.
Wheel Loader
10 Nos.
Tractor (4x4) with front end loader.
20 Nos.
31
Development Carried Out
1. Gulshan-e-Faisal (Bath Island).
2. Three Sword Clifton.
3. I.I. Chundrigar Road.
4. North Nazimabad.
De-silting of Storm Water is Underway
Name of Town
Name of Nallah
Landhi Town
6000 Rd, Awami colony
362 Rd, near Zaman Town
Orangi Town
Urdu Chowk to Sabri Chowk
Bukhari Colony to Banaras Chowk via Aligar Colony.
MPR Colony/Miran Compound & Baloch Colony Nallah.
TMA Office to Islam Nagar
Shah Waliullah Nagar Nallah.
Main Orangi Town Disco More to Metro Cinema via Baloch Goth & Banarsi
Market.
North Nazimabad
From Ziauddin Hospital to KDA Chowrangi.
From KDA Chowrangi to Pahar Ganj Chowrangi.
From Fun to Learn School blk-B to Hamara medical Center.
From Abdullah College to Intermediate Board Office Sh-e-Noor Jehan.
From Haidry Sweet to HBL on sh-e-Faizy Blk-C.
Piala Hotel to Peoples Chowrangi.
Nusrat Bhutto Colony to Mian Wali.
Back Side old DC Office (Central) Sector 15-A-I.
From Peshawary Ice Cream to Temuri Masjid in between Block-G & H.
Jamshed Town
Lyari Town
Saddar Town
Korangi Town
Gulshan Town
North Karachi
Soldier Bazar Nallah.
Karachi A. Nallah.
Manzoor Colony Nallah near Bismillah.
Murtaza Ground.
Kulri Nallah.
Picture Nallah
Haji Peer Nallah Atma Ram.
Nehr-e-Khayyam (100% completed)
Picture Nallah (Saddar)
Akber Road Nallah near Frere Market.
Soldier Bazar Nallah (Saddar)
12000 Road Nallah
34/1 & II Nallah
Dividing Road Blk- 6 & 7 Gulistan-e-Jauhar near Coconut Bagh.
Darul Sahat Blk- 14 & 15 Gulistan-e-Jauhar.
Rabia City Pahelwan Goth.
2000 Road Gabol Town to Godra More.
7000 Road Godra More to Bismillah Stop.
4400 Road from D-more to 2 minute Chowrangi.
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SITE Town
Orangi Nallah
Darul Salam Frontier Colony UC-6
Pirabad Nallah/Muslimabad
Qalandria Nallah Nusrat Bhutto colony.
Haroonabad Nallah.
Mominabad Nallah.
Rehabilitation Plan
Long Term Plan.
• Removal of encroachment to retrieve the original width.
• Channelization to restore the water carrying capacity.
• Construction of service road on both side of the river/nullah.
Traffic Arrangements
• For smooth flow of traffic , the Transport Department, CDGK has arranged:
1.
Detours.
2.
Yellow Tapes.
3.
Cones.
Health and Hygiene
• Arrangements of Fumigation/Aerial spray of the affected areas.
• Health Group of Offices have been asked to procure sufficient medicine.
• Health Group of Offices have also been asked to designate Mobile Medical Team.
• Activation of Emergency Response Center located at Hawks Bay.
• Activation of 134 Helpline.
• Activation of 16 Fire Brigade Department.
• Activation of wireless system to be more vigilant during rain.
• Deployment of staff from relevant department in 134 Helpline.
• Cancellation of leave of all the Emergency Staff.
• Deployment of Community Police Personal, in case of any eventuality.
Establishment of Emergency Centers
District Coordination Officer
(Control Room)
134 Helpline (Control Room)
Fire Head Quarter Control Room
9205605/9205639/9203443
Fax # 021-9205634
9230060
9230062
134 (five lines)
9232455
16 (five lines)
9215007-08
Gulistan-e-Mustafa Fire Station
9246268/9246316
Landhi Fire Station
5015988/5015888
Lyari Fire Station
2527572/2528090
Focal Person Fire Brigade
0321-2945486/0333-2275615
16 Control Room
33
DETAILS OF AVAILABLE ASSETS WITH ARMY, COMKAR AND MSA
Army
(5 Corps)
COMKAR
MSA
Total
Boats
142
OBMs
125
40
50*
30
232
155
Life Jackets
1335
Annex E
Remarks
* Various
categories rescue
boats
1335
34
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS
Extent of Cyclone Surge Scenario I
Annex F
35
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS (Continues)
Precipitation Impact in Cyclone Scenario I
36
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS (Continues)
Strong Winds Impact in Cyclone Scenario I
37
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS (Continues)
Potential Threats of Urban Flooding Scenario I
38
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS (Continues)
Precipitation Impact in Scenario II
39
GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATION OF SCENARIOS (Continues)
Strong Winds Impact in Scenario II
40
Annex G
LIKELY HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF CYCLONE IN KARACHI (SCENARIO 1)
Summary of Affected Population / Relief Caseload
Worst Affected Towns
(5 Towns)
Moderately
Affected
Towns (2 Towns)
Towns Affected by
Rains and Winds (13
Towns)
Grand Total
Population
Affected Population
3,651,791
2,395,368
Possible Relief
Caseload
479,075
1,730,957
407,864
61,181
9,737,082
1,864,641
130,532
15,119,830
4,667,873
670,788
Affected Pop / Relief Caseload in Worst Affected Towns due to Storm Surge, Rain & Wind
Impact
Town
Korangi
DHA
Saddar
Kemari
Lyari
Total
Population
829,813
379,596
935,566
583,640
923,176
3,651,791
Affected Population
%
75
80
70
100
25
Population
622,360
303,677
654,897
583,640
230,794
2,395,368
Possible Relief Caseload
20% of Affected Population
124,472
60,736
130,980
116,728
46,159
479,075
Affected Pop / Relief Caseload in Moderately Affected Towns due to Storm Surge, Rain &
Wind Impact
Town
Population
Jamshed
Town
Baldia
Total
1,114,235
616,722
1,730,957
Affected Population
Possible Relief Caseload
15% of Affected Population
%
20
Population
222,847
33,428
30
185,017
407,864
27,753
61,181
41
Affected Pop / Relief Caseload Towns Affected by Rains and Winds Only
Town
Population
Shah Faisal
SITE
Nazimabad
Gadap
Gulshan Iqbal
Landhi
New Karachi
Orangi
Bin Qasim
Gulberg
Liaquatabad
Malir
Cantonment
Total
509,915
709,944
753,423
439,674
949,351
1,012,391
1,038,865
1,098,859
480,854
688,580
985,581
604,763
464,882
9,737,082
Affected Population
%
50
30
20
5
10
20
15
25
5
25
25
5
5
Population
254,958
212,984
150,687
21,984
94,936
202,479
155,830
274,715
24,043
172,145
246,396
30,239
23,245
1,864,641
Possible Relief Caseload
7% of Affected Population
17,848
14,909
10,549
1,539
6,645
14,174
10,909
19,231
1,684
12,051
17,248
2,117
1,628
130,532
Population to be Evacuated (Worst Affected Towns)
Town
Korangi
DHA
Saddar
Kemari
Lyari
Total
Population
50% of Total Population
829,813
379,596
935,566
583,640
923,176
3,651,791
414,907
189,798
467,783
291,820
461,588
1,825,896
42
LIST OF HOSPITALS IN KARACHI
Annex H
Name of Hospital
Location
Administered by Federal Government / Armed Forces
Combined Military Hospital
Malir
Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (1,185 beds)
Rafique Shaheed Road
National Institute of Cardiovascular diseases (360 beds)
Rafique Shaheed Road
National Institute of Child Health
Rafique Shaheed Road
PNS Rahat
Shah Faisal
PNS Shifa
DHA
Shoukat Omer Memorial Hospital
Shah Faisal
Administered by Sindh Government
Civil Hospital
Babe Urdu Road
Kulsum Bai Valika Social Security Hospital
SITE
Nazimabad Chest Clinic
Nazimabad
Ojah Institute of Chest Diseases,
University Road
Police Hospital (50 bed)
Garden
Sindh Government Children Hospital
Sindh Government Hospital
Korangi
Sindh Government Hospital
Liaquatabad
Sindh Government Hospital
Lyari
Sindh Government Hospital
New Karachi
Sindh Government Qatar Hospital
Orangi
Sindh Government Hospital
Saudabad
Sindh Government Hospital
Bin Qasim, Ibrahim Hydri
Sindh Services Hospital
M.A.Jinnah Road
Sindh Institute of Skin Diseases (50 bed)
Regal Chowk
Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation
Babe Urdu Road
Skin & Social Hygiene Centre
Saddar
Social Security Hospital
Landhi
Administered by CDGK
Abbasi Shaheed Hospital
Nazimabad
Institute of Infection Diseases
Gadap
Karachi Institute of Heart Diseases (120 beds)
Gulberg
Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine
KDA Scheme 33
Spencer Eye Hospital
Lee Market
Sobhraj Maternity Home
Urdu Bazar
Private Hospitals
Aga Khan University Hospital (542 beds)
Stadium Road
Bismillah Taqee Institute of Health Sciences & Blood Diseases Centre
Gulshan e Iqbal
Burhani Hospital
Saddar
Baqai University Hospital
Nazimabad
Chiniot General hospital
Korangi
Darul Sehat Hospital
Gulistan e Johar
Darul Shifa Imam Khomeini Hospital
Malir
Hamdard University Hospital
M.A. Jinnah Road
Ibne Sina Hospital Complex
Gulshan e Iqbal
Jinnah Medical College Hospital
Shaheed e Millat Road
43
Karachi National Hospital
Kharadar General Hospital
Layton Rahmatulla Benevolent Trust Eye Hospital (L.R.B.T.),
Liaquat National Hospital
Nazimabad Hospital
Nihal Hospital
National Medical Centre
Universal Medical Training Centre & Hospital
Zainab Panjwani Memorial Hospital
Dr. Zia Ud Din Hospital
M.A.Jinnah Road
Kharadar
DHA
Stadium Road
Nazimabad
Malir
DHA
Nazimabad
Numaish
Nazimabad,
North
Nazimabad,
Clifton,
Kemari
44
Annex J
RESOURCE PERSONS
Name
Dr. Qamar Uz Zaman
Dr. Ghulam Rasool
Vice Admiral Tayyab Ali Dogar
Commodore Ifthikhar Ahmad
Brig. Akhtar Rao
Mr. Muhamad Suleman Chandio
Lt. Col Talat Janjua
Mr. Muhammad Tauseef Alam
Mr. Arshad Ifthikhar
Mr. Anwar Ali
Mr. Noor Mohammad Baloch
Mr. Mir Muhammad Khaskheli
Mr. Saindad Tunio
Mr. Abid Arifeen
Wing Commander Syed Naseem Ahmad
Commodore Qaiser Aziz
Commodore Adnan Abdullah
Commodore Khalid Pervez
Major Shahid Javaid
Lt. Col ( R ) Pervez Anwar Gill
Capt. (R) M. Arif
Lt. Comdr ( R ) Ghulam Hussain Shah
Commodore Munir Hussain
Major Adil Muhammad
Mr. Amir Mohiuddin
Lt. Col. Mumtaz
Brig. (R) Abdul Qayyum
Mr. Imam Baksh Baloch
Mr. Barkat Ali Jatoi
Mr. Munir A. Memon
Mr. Khuda Baksh
Sector
Contact No.
PMD, Isb
051-9250367
PMD, Isb
051-9250369
Pak Navy (MSA)
021-9214619, 48508941
Pak Navy (COMKAR)
HQ Engrs 5 Corps
021-560-2350
Water & Sewerage
Pak Rangers
021-9205255
PMD
051-9250360-63
WAPDA
WAPDA
Fisheries Forum
Railways
051-9203068
Board of Revenue
Fisheries
CAA
Pak Navy (MSA)
021-9214619, 48508941
Pak Navy (MSA)
021-9214619, 48508941
Pak Navy HQ COMKAR
Pak Coast Guard
SSGC
SSGC
KPT
KSEW
NDMA
051-9213083
NDMA
051-9008447
HQ Engrs 5 Corps
021-560-2350
Pakistan Steel Mills
KPT
Sindh Industrial Trading Estate (SITE)
Relief Department Sindh
Municipal Services (CDGK)
45
Annex P
KARACHI CITY MAP