From: Andy Wilson, Sustainability Institute, Corrig, Sandyhill, Westport, Co. Mayo
Communications should be addressed to Andy Wilson. email: office@sustainability.ie phone 087 6714075
Date: 30/03/10
Preliminary Forestry Review Submission Paper to Department of Agriculture, Republic of
Ireland
1.0 Introduction
This short paper is intended as a preliminary submission on sustainable forestry in Ireland. A detailed assessment of the potential national forestry resource is currently being undertaken by the Sustainability Institute. This assessment will be completed towards the end of 2010. A number of the pertinent criteria underwriting the overall assessment are detailed below.
Please note that time constraints prevent more detailed analysis in this preliminary submission. However, feedback would be most welcome. We ask that those reading this document also to take the time to read the referenced documents. This will provide further context.
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2.0 Overview
Ireland has approximately 1,500,000 ha of land suitable for sustainable forestry and perhaps a further 500,000 ha of wet areas appropriate for the regeneration of native woodland. This area largely excludes land in SACs or NHAs, though it may be argued that some of this land
(notably that on which deciduous woodland was present at any time in the last 500 years) is also suitable for native woodland, either from reforestation programmes or from natural regeneration, for use as a carbon sink.
In this context, the term forestry is used to refer to managed plantations, included coppicing systems, while woodland refers to largely unmanaged stands of native trees, possibly containing some low proportion of exotic species where these are already present. The term sustainable , when used in conjunction with forestry, refers to management regimes that have clear net environmental, social, and local economic benefits, including carbon sequestration, that also do not compromise the ability of future generation to meet their own specific needs, or limit future biodiversity.
The total amount of native woodland or deciduous plantations in the Republic of Ireland currently stands at about 100,000 ha. This figure is up from the all-time low of 30-40,000 ha reached in the early part of the Twentieth century, but still represents one of the lowest proportions of land in deciduous trees in Europe. The only worse cases are Malta and Iceland.
There are currently approximately 500,000 ha of plantation conifers, mostly planted on peat lands, including bog. The low purchase price and/or grazing value of peat lands have made them an attractive choice for coniferous forestry when compared to other agricultural land.
Also, annual yields from conifers grown on wet land can significantly exceed the yields from similar trees grown on drier ground. These higher yields are contingent on liberal applications of artificial fertilisers. Some conifers, notably the Sitka spruce, grow especially fast on bog. A comparison in any builder's providers' of sawn timber from Irish and Scandinavian sources quickly reveals the much wider-spaced growth rings in the former. However, as any timeserved carpenter knows, the slower grown timber is by far the more durable and dependable product.
The Irish coniferous plantations are known to have considerable environmental impacts, notably the release of greenhouse gasses and the run off of nutrients and particulate matter during planting and felling operations. Although no definitive study has ever been undertaken in Ireland, the presumption is that coniferous plantations, under the management regimes employed in Ireland, are significant net greenhouse gas emitters. Globally, commercial forestry operations are responsible for 17-18 percent of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
The financial benefits from planting coniferous plantations have come mainly from the sale of fast-grown low-grade timber for pulpwood or pallet wood, with a lesser quantity used for construction timber. An additional benefit may have come from the afforestation grants and annual payments, which in some circumstances may have exceeded the total spend on a given afforestation project.
As we now know, the principal markets for these coniferous products have collapsed over the last two years, resulting in considerable stockpiling of harvested but unsaleable logs. The only markets to show any resilience have been in wood chips and logs for fuel. Currently, both these markets are very small, and are constrained by many factors including the relative costs of other fuels and the difficulties of accessing markets.
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Currently, the forestry sector contributes very little to Ireland's economy. Indeed, it is likely that the State forestry company Coillte is either already loss making, or will become so in the very near future. In employment terms, forestry is of very minor significance.
In spite of these prevailing very poor circumstances, the establishment of genuinely sustainable woodland and forestry, is well within the capability of Ireland, and would bring massive benefits to the environment, to local and national economies, and on a wider societal level.
Taking annual yields to be a fairly conservative 6 tonnes per ha (this is the weight when airdried to 20 percent moisture content - harvested weight would be around 12 tonnes @ 60 percent moisture) the envisaged 1,500,000 ha would annually provide up to 9,000,000 tonnes of fuel wood with an energy value of 35 TWh - almost the equivalent of the entire energy spend in domestic heating in Ireland (37 TWh) at the present time (SEI Energy in Ireland
2009 ).
Only a portion of the envisaged fuel harvest would actually be used for domestic heating
(burnt mainly as logs in solid fuel stoves or wood gasifiers), with the remainder used in industrial scale gasifiers or chip boilers, or in CHP plants for the generation of electricity and provision of district heating. In all likelihood, not all the potential harvest would be used for fuel as some may serve other markets. Also some trees should be allowed to grow on to maturity. It is acknowledged that the harvesting and distribution of the wood will require some energy inputs in the form of vehicle fuels - this may amount to the equivalent of 15-25 percent of the gross energy yield, depending on distance travelled.
Critics of this proposal, who argue that wood is uneconomic as a fuel, fail to take into consideration the bigger picture, which is that global oil production has peaked or will peak in the very near future. This will lead to a catastrophic decline in the availability of oil on global markets. This decline invariably will also impact on other energy streams, given the high dependency on oil for transport and transport infrastructures, extraction of raw materials, and industrial processes.
Ireland, as a small nation with no economic or military muscle, with limited options for trade, and situated at the very end of global supply chains, will be in an unenviable position of scavenging for scraps on world markets. Wood will quickly become economical as a fuel when it is the only game in town. Also, a significant proportion of the total harvest could be produced by cooperatives or collectives paying wages either partly or entirely in fuel. Energy from biomass may be the determining factor in whether Ireland can maintain any sort of industrial base in the post-oil era.
Unfortunately, it takes two to three decades to develop new sustainable forestry for fuel production. It is extremely unlikely that a global fuel crisis will successfully be averted for more than 6 or 7 years, though possibly the situation will not become critical for a little longer. Either way, Ireland is staring at a massive shortfall in energy by the early years of the next decade. As economic growth or contraction is very closely correlated with availability of energy, with this shortfall of energy will occur simultaneously to very difficult economic circumstances.
It is vital therefore, both from an energy and economic perspective, that Ireland begins this task of planting its deciduous forests immediately . This will require a scale of mobilisation somewhat greater than national efforts aimed at food security during WW2.
However, the difference is that WW2 was expected to end sooner or later, while fossil fuel depletion is permanent. The afforestation programme needs to be accomplished while there is still money to finance the project. The planting phase could be expected to cost €12-18
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billion - about the same sum of money as is currently sought by Anglo Irish Bank and other
Irish corporate banks for the next phase of the bailout by the Irish State. All monies currently earmarked for bank bailouts should immediately be redirected into sustainable forestry and other long term strategic initiatives. Unlike the monies lobbed into the black holes of the insolvent banking institutions, which will never again see the light of day - most of the money spent on sustainable forestry would find its way into local economies or back into state coffers.
The project would create in the region of 200,000 part time and full time jobs.
2.1 Management systems
The management system proposed for the bulk of the sustainable forestry programme is medium term rotation coppicing (sometimes called short rotation forestry ). This entails coppicing each plantation on a cycle of 8-25 years (depending on the species of tree grown and the size of end product desired). A plantation on an 8 year cycle would see one eighth of the total area coppiced each year, so that by the time the final eighth was cut, the first portion was ready for coppicing again, and so on.
Some of the plantations would be allowed to grow on into larger trees, with individual trees thinned out as required. No clear felling would take place, and replanting would only be necessary where entire trees have been removed or have died.
For further information on medium term rotation coppicing/short rotation forestry, see 7.4 below.
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3.0 Benefits
3.1 Environmental benefits
In a afforestation programme based on medium term rotation coppicing, soil-originating greenhouse gas emissions occur on a significant scale only once, at the time of planting when the soil is disturbed. From then on, there is a continuous net gain of carbon to the soil, as carbon accrues in root tissue, builds up in leaf-generated soil litter, or is accumulated by the growing number of micro-organisms in the soil or in stable non-organic compounds. While some of this carbon would find its way back into the atmosphere relatively quickly, much of it would be locked up for periods running into centuries.
Estimates of the amount of carbon sequestered by deciduous forestry vary by at least one order of magnitude, but a fairly conservative estimate is 2tC/ha/year¹ (representing the equivalent of 7.34 tonnes CO2/ha/yr). Extrapolating up to 1,500,000 ha, this gives a figure of
11,000,000 tonnes of CO2 sequestered per year - equivalent to 20 percent of Ireland's current annual internal CO2 emissions of 56,000,000 tonnes (the internal figure excludes the considerable greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the production of food, fuels and other products used in Ireland but manufactured/grown/produced elsewhere).
The establishment of 500,000 ha of native woodland would lock up considerably more carbon as little harvesting (and subsequent combustion) of timber would take place.
3.2 Other environmental benefits
These are many, but include: reduced flood run-off during extreme rainfall events; reduced greenhouse gas and pollution impacts as a consequence of land being taken out of conventional livestock farming; biodiversity benefits and habitat protection.
3.3 Food production
Sustainable forestry and woodland may also provide a valuable albeit relatively minor role in future food production. This may take the form of low density or seasonal grazing of livestock, or tree crops such as fruit or nuts. Potential crops include apples, pears, plums, cobnuts, walnuts and Spanish chestnuts. Contrary to common perception, all of these crops are potentially viable in the Republic of Ireland, though not necessarily in all parts. The globalisation of markets means most of these crops are economically unviable at present. This will change in the approaching era of reduced availability of oil, and/or high energy prices.
The production of livestock or tree crops within the sphere of sustainable forestry may marginally reduce potential biomass yields.²
3.4 Societal and community benefits
These should not be underestimated. Rural areas in Ireland are currently experiencing rising hardship, falling morale, and a general breakdown of the sense of community . These negative indicators may be interpreted as collateral damage from the Celtic bubble era - an era characterised by a frantic and often mercenary me féin
, everyone-for-themselves philosophy.
The bursting of this bubble will leave many rural areas facing reduced mobility, failing services and falling employment, economic ruin, and a growing level of desperation. All of these factors can potentially be turned around with a nationwide sustainability-driven afforestation programme.
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3.5 Employment
As stated above. An afforestation programme on the scale outlined has the potential to immediately deliver some 200,000 part time and full time jobs. The site preparation, planting, and aftercare of an estimated 8 billion trees (2,000,000 ha at 4000 trees/ha), would provide 5 years work for a labour force of 100,000-150,000 people, plus many additional jobs in related secondary employment. Subsequent maintenance and harvesting work would provide ongoing part time employment for up to 400,000 people.
In contrast to the elusive high-tech smart economy (already well on its way to China and
India), or a corporate-driven green new deal , neither of which will provide many (if any) actual new jobs in Ireland, sustainable forestry provides a participatory, active, communityled, community-benefiting initiative, with many clear employment opportunities.
3.6 Local and national economic benefits
The potential local benefits are massive. A sum of €12 billion, directed into the rural economy over 5 years, gives an annual yield of €2.4 billion - about the same annual spend as in existing agricultural subsidies. Unlike farming subsidies, which often quickly leave the country (to buy imported fertilisers, agro-chemicals and veterinary products, or feedstock), much of the money spent in sustainable forestry will be wages-directed, and will tend to stay longer in local economies. The planting stock can be raised in local nurseries, thus providing further employment, and secondary recycling of afforestation grants. A multitude of training courses will be needed to upskill local communities, providing yet more employment opportunities in nearby colleges of further education and adult education centres.
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4.0 Infrastructural issues
4.1 Energy costs and transport
It is noted that parasitic energy associated with the harvesting and transportation of fuel-wood and associated products rises proportionately with distance. Not only does the energy of transport rise, but also the energy of maintaining transport infrastructure. Therefore, it is desirable that all wood harvested is aimed at markets within 50km, and ideally within 10 km.
These constraints will clearly determine the most appropriate planting locations for sustainable forestry.
Sustainable woodland, not being subject to regular harvests, and not needing to be close to fuel-wood markets, should be considered the more viable option for remote locations. Some micro-level harvesting by local communities may still be possible.
4.2 Locations
The locations (and choice between woodland and coppiced plantation forestry) will be determined by soil type, accessibility (and in particular to transport infrastructure and markets), and competition for land with food production or other uses.
4.3 Land reform and ownership
Reform of ownership, entitlement and public participation in decision-making pertaining to land use is considered highly desirable. There is a major concern that Coillte land will be quietly sold off in a bid to conceal rising operating losses or to help balance other burgeoning
State deficits. From both a public and sustainability perspective, this outcome is extremely undesirable.
4.3.1 Coillte
Coillte Teoranta is a commercial State company, which operates forestry, land management, panel products and renewable energy businesses. The company is co-owned by the Minister
1 for Finance and the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The company was established under the Forestry Act 1988. The principal objectives of the company, as provided in Section 12 of the Forestry Act 1988, are:
To carry on the business of forestry and related activities on a commercial basis and in accordance with efficient silvicultural activities
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To establish and carry on woodland industries
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To participate with others in forestry and related activities consistent with its objects, designed to enhance the effective and profitable operation of the company
To utilise and manage the resources available to it in a manner consistent with the above objects.
The company manages an estate of some 440,000 hectares of which 351,000 hectares are forested. It is debatable whether any of the objectives listed above are still being met. The principal market for traditional Irish forestry product - the construction industry - has contracted by over 80 percent since its 2006 peak, and is still falling.
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The three main options for Coillte land going forward are as follows:
4.3.1.1 The land remains in State ownership but is leased to new sustainable forestry cooperatives representing local community and environmental interests
4.3.1.2 The land is sold off to cooperatives representing local community and environmental interests
Both these options should include local residency clauses that preclude buyers or leaseholders from outside the region
4.3.1.3 The land remains in the direct control of Coillte but with major management reform so that the composition of the future management executive provides for proper representation of local communities and environmental organisations, broadly under the terms agreed by signatories to the Aarhus Convention.³
4.3.2 Other land reform
It is vital that other land is made available to community groups demonstrating clear capability and intention as regards the establishment of sustainable forestry and woodland. All unused development land, in particular that which is subject to bankruptcy proceedings or part of the NAMA portfolio should be considered as potentially available. New legislation, perhaps modelled on the existing legislation covering derelict sites (which gives local authorities considerable powers), and/or taking on board the spirit of the former Irish Land
Act and/or of the compulsory tillage legislation of the war years, would prove beneficial in this respect.
4.3.3 Leaseholders and ownership
Any process of disposal of State owned lands must follow clear protocols on hierarchy of future ownership, with the most desirable outcome being ownership or leasing by local community groups, and the least being a sell-off to foreign controlled transnational companies. However, aspiring community or private owners or leaseholders must be able to clearly demonstrate capability to adequately manage a given project.
4.4 Finance and Value for Money
It is essential the afforestation programme gives good value for money. It should not in any way be conceived of as a further bail-out for loss-making conventional agricultural enterprises. Thus some creativity will be needed in allocation of grants and other financial supports, in order to entice the agricultural community from the current tranche of maintenance grants (Single Farm Payments). Possibly an either/or situation should prevail, whereby Single Farm Payments are relinquished in order to avail of attractive planting grants
(with strict conditions attached). Unlike the differential rates of annual payments in the current afforestation grants, there should be no discrimination against the local non-farming community. However, the programme should be carefully designed to safeguard against outside speculators subverting the grant process and appropriating monies otherwise intended for local communities.
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5.0 Planting Schedule and Timescales
The planting schedule should provide for the entire 1,500,000 ha of deciduous forestry and
500,000 ha of native woodland being planted within 7-8 years from now. Assuming a 2-3 year lead time before planting commences, this equates to an average of 400,000 ha being planted each year. In practice, there would be a gradual ramp up for the first 3 years, and gradual tail off for years 4 and 5.
The schedule of afforestation may look something like this:
Year 1:
Year 2:
Year 3:
Year 4:
Year 5:
100,000 ha forestry 50,000 ha woodland
250,000 ha forestry 100,000 ha woodland
450,000 ha forestry 150,000 ha woodland
400,000 ha forestry 100,000 ha woodland
300,000 ha forestry 100,000 ha woodland
Further planting could be considered beyond Year 5, if targets were not met or if additional forestry and/or woodland were regarded as desirable. A detailed review should be undertaken after Year 3.
5.1 Time scale
It takes only 8 to 12 years from planting time for the first dividends on medium term coppicing to be realised. Thus a planting programme initiated within 2-3 years and rolled out over the following 5 years would deliver very tangible energy benefits within 12-18 years.
The employment and local economic benefits would be much more immediate.
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6.0 Preliminary Conclusions
The pertinent points are as follows:
6.1 Ireland is soon to face a very serious crisis in energy availability, as global fossil fuel resources decline and/or as a consequence of the knock on effects of oil depletion.
6.2 High capital expenditure renewable energy projects geared towards the generation of electricity and based on intermittent and unpredictable resources, (such as large scale wind) cannot be ramped up sufficiently, or re-configured to meet heat energy needs. It would take
15 times the current installed wind capacity in Ireland (1250 MW) with all the associated storage and infrastructural requirements (perhaps costing upwards of €100 Billion in total) to deliver 35 TWh of energy per annum. Electricity is a high grade and versatile energy form.
Economically, it makes no sense to utilise production of this expense form of energy for delivering low grade heat energy.
6.3 Unproven high-capital expenditure renewable energy technologies (such as ocean energy) cannot be developed and then ramped sufficiently quickly to make any difference to Ireland's short or medium term energy security. Even in the longer term, ocean energy technology represents an extremely high risk enterprise. The costs of development are significantly higher than wind.
6.4 Apart from biogas derived from anaerobic digestion using agriculture-derived feedstocks
(silage or other annual crops), no other renewable energy resource technology has the potential to deliver on the scale required, or to be managed for the benefit of local communities.
6.5 No other resource, renewable or otherwise, has the equivalent potential for carbon sequestration.
6.6 The relatively long lead time and very great urgency means the project must be initiated immediately, legislation enacted, and management, financing and grant procedures established within the next two years. Planting should begin 2011/12, or at latest 2012/2013.
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7.0 Further reading
7.1 The Mayo Energy Audit
The Mayo Energy Audit (Sustainability Institute, December 2008) represented the first indepth study of energy supply and demand to be carried out at county level in Ireland. In contrast to earlier studies carried out in other parts of Ireland - that automatically assumed further increases in per-capita energy demand - the Mayo Audit examined a wide range of different scenarios for future energy demand in the context of both global supply and local energy resources. The study concluded that increased energy demand/usage was neither sustainable nor credible. The scenario seen as most likely at the time the study was undertaken was one in which a reduction of 30-40 percent in energy availability occurred by
2020. This scenario was labelled the Lean Economy and represented a relatively structured and cohesive reduction in energy use as energy availability fell or prices of imported fossil fuels became prohibitive. Another scenario, Enforced Localisation, reflected the massive falloff in energy availability resulting from major disruptions or discontinuities in global supply chains and/or financial infrastructure.
The study found that the potential forestry resource for County Mayo considerably exceeded the likely yields from wind or wave technologies, with the added advantages of creation of local employment, keeping money in the local economy and ownership of the resource being more in the hands of the local community.
The biomass section of the study has been extensively drawn upon by Mayo County Council in the recently published discussion document Mayo's Potential for Renewable Energy (Mayo
County Council February 2010).
Further work carried out by the Sustainability Institute, and (in more detail) by David
Korowicz of Feasta suggests global energy availability will fall very rapidly with the onset of any permanent decline in crude oil production.
Further information on the Mayo Energy Audit can be found at http://www.sustainability.ie/energystudy.html
7.2 Economic Growth and Its Future
Economic Growth and Its Future (David Korowicz, report prepared for the Green Party,
December 2008) examines the constraints imposed by fossil fuel depletion and falling global energy availability on economic growth, and the likely consequences. The study warns of impending very serious difficulties in the maintenance of global financial and supply chain infrastructure.
7.3 Short Rotation Forestry
For further information on short rotation forestry, see A Review of the Potential Impacts of
Short Rotation Forestry (Pat Hardcastle and colleagues, LTS International 2006). www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/SRFFinalReport27Feb.../SRFFinalReport27Feb.pdf
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8.0 End Notes
¹ This figure was taken from a study of mature deciduous forests carried out in Saskatchewan, Canada, which estimated carbon sequestration at 1.4-3.4t/ha/yr. The longer growing season in Ireland is likely to lead to greater carbon uptake. Also, both young trees, and trees subject to coppicing regimes have much greater carbon uptake than mature forestry. Given these circumstances, 2t/ha/yr can be considered fairly conservative.
² For more on the potential for growing nuts in Ireland, see The Role of Nut Crops in Achieving Long Term Food
Security in Ireland (Andy Wilson, Sustainability Institute, December 2009) http://www.andywilson.ie/nuts.foodsecurity1.1.pdf
³ Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in
Environmental Matters , Aarhus, Denmark 25 June 1998. Ireland was a signatory to this convention.
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