EN
EN
EN
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Brussels, 4.10.2007
SEC(2007) 1261
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Annex 1 for the Nuclear Illustrative Programme
{COM(2007) 565 final}
{SEC(2007) 1262}
EN
EN
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Annex 1 for the Nuclear Illustrative Programme
Figure 1: Share in Electricity Generation in EU-25
(~3180 TWh in 2004)
Nuclear
31,0%
Gas
19,9%
Hydro 10,6%
RES*
14,8%
Geoth + Solar 0,2%
Wind 1,8%
Solids
29,5%
Oil
4,5%
Biomass2,1%
Renewables Energy Sources
Source Eurostat
Fig 1: Relative share for generation of electricity by various sources
Figure 2 : Share in Energy Consumption in the EU-25
(~1740 Mtoe in 2004)
Gas
23,9%
Nuclear
14,6%
Hydro
1,5%
RES
6,5%
Oil
37,2%
Biomass
4,4%
Coal
17,9%
Other RES 0,6%
Source Eurostat, WNO'06
EN
2
EN
Fig 2: Relative share of sources used to accommodate energy consumption.
Mtoe
Figure 3: Predicted External Energy Dependence of the EU
2000
Total Consumption
1500
2030 ?
~70 % in
to 2
ing 1
grow
0%
already > 5
1000
%/ y
External Dependence
Primary Production
500
2005~55%
2004~53%
2002~50%
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source TREN
Fig 3: Comparison of forecast for energy consumption and production (EU-25).
450
90%
400
80%
350
70%
300
60%
250
50%
200
40%
150
30%
100
20%
50
10%
0
MS
Share, %
Production, TWh
Figure 4: Nuclear share in the Member States (2004)
Production & Share (x)
0%
FR
DE
SE
UK
SP
BE
CZ
FI
BG
SK
LT
HU
RO
SI
NL Source Eurostat
Fig 4: Number of NPP units in the EU nuclear Member States along with their
contribution to the nuclear share for electricity generation and production
figures.
EN
3
EN
Table 1: List of Reactors, Electricity Generation and U Requirements in the
EU-27 (15 August 2006)
Sources
WNA-PRIS
Country
BE
CZ
FI
FR
DE
HU
LT
IT
NL
SK
SI
SP
SE
UK
Electricity Produced in
2005
Power Reactors
Operational
in Aug 2006
Nr
7
6
4
59
17
4
1
0
1
6
1
8*
10
23
Installed
Capacity
MWe
5728
3472
2676
63473
20303
1755
1185
452
2472
676
7442
8975
11852
Shut
Down
Nr
1
11
19
1
4
1
1
2*
3
22
Under
Const.
Nr /
MWe
1 / 1600
-
Planned +
Proposed
Nr / MWe
0
2 / 1900
0
2* / 3230
0
0
1 / 1000
0
2 / 840
0
0
0
0
Total,
TWh
81.5
76.2
67.9
549.2
499.0
35.1
14.8
96.4
29.1
13.2
279.6
154.7
378.4
2006
Uranium
Nuclear,
Requirement
TWh (share) Tonnes U
45.3 (56%)
1075
23.3 (31%)
540
22.3 (26%)
473
426.8 (78%)
10146
154.6 (32%)
3458
11.2 (34%)
251
9.5 (70%)
134
3.6 (3.8%)
112
16.3 (56%)
356
5.6 (42%)
144
54.7 (20%)
1505
69.5 (45%)
1435
75.2 (20%)
2158
4
2722
2
2 / 1900
39.3
17.3 (44%)
BG
1
700
1 / 700
2 / 2800
59.4
5.5 (9.3%)
RO
EU-27
152
133883
67
2 / 2300 11 / 11670
2373.8
940.7
Changes*
-1
=
+1
=
+1 / +1600
since 04/06
98054
USA
103
24
1 / 1065 23*/26716
4037.4
780.4 (19%)
47700
Japan
55
4
1 / 899 12 / 14782
957.0
280.7 (29%)
21743
Russia
31
5
5*/ 4550 10*/11225
869.8
137.3 (16%)
Canada
18
12595
7
2*/ 1540 2* / 2000
593.6
86.8 (15%)
13168
Ukraine
15
4
2 / 1900
171.8
83.3 (49%)
7587
China
10*
5 / 4170 63* / 48800
2475
50.3 (2%)
3577
India
16*
7 / 3088 24 / 13160
555
15.7 (2.8%)
South
16840
Korea
20
8
311.8
139.3 (45%)
3220
Switzerland
5
0
68.9
22.1 (32%)
368496
World
442
107
28
204
16400
2626 (16%)
Changes*
since 04/06
+1
n/a
+1
+53/+45000
Data sources: WNA, PRIS. Remark: These values may slightly differ from equivalent data presented
in annex 2, which have been validated the individual Member States concerned.
* Note changes between March 2006 and 1st of January 20076:
 EU: 1 shutdown in Spain; including possible second EPR proposed in FR; as of 31.12.2006, 4 old
closed in UK, 2 closed in BG.
 USA: 10 new proposed/planned
 Russia : 1 newly operational; 1 started construction
 Canada: 2 started constructions; 2 additional proposed/planned
 China: 1 newly operational; 1 started construction; 38 additional proposed/planned
 India: 1 newly operational;
EN
4
253
100
22140
=
19715
8169
3439
1635
1988
1294
1334
3037
575
65478
-
EN
Figure 5 : Evolution of nuclear production capacity vs
forcasted nuclear share of the primary energy demand (EU-25)
16%
WNO'06
APS
scenario
140
14%
12%
100
10%
80
Existing, calculated from PRIS (IAEA)
data with 40 Y lifetime*
60
World Nuclear Outlook 2006 (WNO'06)
40
With lifetime extention and/or new build
8%
6%
4%
Nuclear share in Primary Energy demand
20
Nuclear share
Installed capacity, GW(e)
120
2%
0
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
* from PRIS data, considering actual constructions + Life Extention when applicable, and 32Y German Phasing out
Sources PRIS; European Energy & Transport, Trends to 2030, update 2005 (L Mantzos & P Capros) and World Energy Outlook 2006
Fig. 5: Projection of the expected nuclear capacity to provide the nuclear share
of electricity generation in the EU assuming planned closedown of reactors and
potential lifetime extension or/and new build.
Figure 6 : EU 27 Operational & Shutdown NPPs by age
24
Nr
152 operational NPP
(-3 from 31/12/06)
20
operational and to shutdown before
2025 in a 40y lifetime scenario
2 Under Construction (FI, RO)
16
67 actually Shutdown NPP
(+3 from 31/12/06)
12
8
4
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Age (at 1/11/06 or at SD)
35
40
45
Source TREN, PRIS
Fig 6: Distribution of operational and planned shutdown for NPPs in the
enlarged EU as well as potential new build.
EN
5
EN
Figure 7 : Age (on 01/04/06) of NPPs in the EU
45
Oldest
40
Mean Age
35
Youngest
30
y
25
20
15
<————NPP in EU10+2———— >
10
<—————NPP in EU-15 ———— >
more recent
Plants
in NEW M S
EU-27 (152)
EU-25 (148)
NL (1)
UK(23)
SE (10)
FI (4)
BE (7)
GE (17)
SP (8)
FR (59)
EU-15 (129)
SI (1)
EU-10 (23)
Source PRIS
HU (4)
LT (1)
SK (6)
CZ (6)
BG (4)
0
RO (1)
5
Fig 7: Distribution of age of NPPs in the EU
Fig 8: Impact of a 50% Increase in Fuel Price on Generating Costs
Increase in generating cost
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Nuclear
IGCC
Coal Steam
CCGT
Source: WEO'06
Figure 8: A 50% increase in uranium, coal and gas prices compared (with the
base assumption) would increase generating costs by 3% for nuclear, 20% with
coal and about 38% with gas (CCGT)
EN
6
EN
Figure 9 : Geopolitical distribution of imported resources in the EU
100%
Others
Others
KAZ + UZB
Algeria
Re-enrich+ HEU feed
80%
Producer Share
USA
Niger
60%
norway
Russia
40%
Australia
Russia
20%
Canada
0%
Source Eurostat, AAE
Gas
~200 Mio toe
(2004-05)
Fuel
17500 t
Uranium
(2005)
Fig. 9: Comparison of the Geopolitical distribution of imports of uranium and
gas into the EU.
EN
7
EN
33
00
3500
Figure 10.1 : U Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR)* Vs recovery costs
* Inferred resources recoverable at < 130 $/KgU compared to 80 $ /kgU
increase the Global RAR (3300 Thousand tons U) by about 1450
* Global Resources hit ~5 Mio t U including Inferred ones
2500
2000
< 130$/kg
< 80$/kg
1500
Uk
rai
ne
ed
.
Uz
be
k is
tan
Ru
ss i
an
F
Bra
z il
Nig
er
Na
mib
ia
a
Afr
ic
So
uth
US
A
Ca
na
da
Wo
rl
Au
str
a
dt
ota
l
lia
Ka
za
khs
tan
60
0
EU
-2 7
70
80
16
0
16
0
18
0
21
5
26
0
34
0
75
0
500
44
0
< 40$/kg
1000
51
5
Thousands Tons U
3000
OECD & ESA
Fig. 10.1: Geopolitical distribution of uranium sources.
47
43
5
4
Inferred
38
04
4,5
RAR*
3,5
3,
29
7
3
27
46
Millions Tons U
Figure 10.2 :Global Identified U Resources in 2005
2,
64
3
2,5
1,5
1
0,5
1,
94
7
2
* Inferred resources recoverable at < 130 $/KgU compared to 80 $ /kgU
increase the Global RAR (3300 Thousand tons U) by about 1450
* Global Resources hit ~5 Mio t U including Inferred ones
0
< 40
< 80
< 130
Source AAE, NEA
Fig. 10.2: Uranium sources available by price range.
EN
8
EN
Figure 11a: Electricity Generation Costs in Low Discount rate Case
€/MWh
70
70
60
range on Capacity factor
60
50
Nuclear High
50
40
Nuclear Low
40
30
30
CO2
20
Range
10
Fuel
0
O&M
20
10
0
CCGT
Coal Steam
IGCC
On Shore
Wind
Nuclear
C&C
Figure 11b: Electricity Generation Costs in High Discount rate Case
€/MWh
80
range on Capacity factor
70
Nuclear High
60
Nuclear Low
50
40
CO2
30
Range
20
Fuel
10
O&M
0
CCGT
Coal Steam
IGCC
On Shore
Wind
Nuclear
C&C
Figure 11 : range of levelised costs of generating electricity, with 5% and 10% discount
rates and C costs at 30$/tCO2 (1€ = 1.25 $)
Source World Energy Outlook 2006
CCGT: Gas Fired Combined Cycle Turbine; IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Plant
EN
9
EN
List of Abbreviations
Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor
As Low As Reasonably Achievable
Basic Safety Standards
Boiling Water Reactor
AGR
ALARA
BSS
BWR
CANada Deuterium Uranium
CANDU
Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique
CEA
Community of Independent States
CIS
CO2
CCGT
FP
GCR
GEN IV
GFR
GHG
EPR
ERA
HEU
HLW
IEA
IAEA
ITER
LEU
LILW
Magnox
MOX
NEA
NPP
OECD
P&T
PWR
TACIS
VVER or
WWER
VHTR
VLLW
WEO
WNA
EN
Carbon Dioxide
Combined Cycle Gas Turbines
Framework Programme
Gas Cooled Reactor
Generation IV Reactors are a set of theoretical nuclear reactor designs
currently being researched.
Gas Fast Reactor
Green House Gases
European Pressurised Reactors
European research Area
Highly Enriched Uranium
High Level Waste
International Energy Agency
International Atomic Energy Agency
International Thermonuclear Experimental reactor
Low Enriched Uranium
Low Intermediate Level Waste
Type of British designed nuclear reactor
Mixed Oxide Fuel
Nuclear Energy Agency
Nuclear Power Plant
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Partitioning and Transmutation
Pressurised Water Reactors
Technical Aid to the Commonwealth of Independent States
The Russian abbreviation VVER stands for water-cooled, watermoderated energy reactor. Russian version of PWR reactor.
Very High Temperature Reactor
Very Low Level Waste
World Energy Outlook
World Nuclear Association
10
EN
Index of Figures
Fig 1: Relative share for generation of electricity by various sources.
Fig 2: Relative share of sources used to accommodate energy consumption.
Fig 3: Comparison of trend for the energy consumption and production.
Fig 4: Number of NPPs in the EU nuclear Member States.
Fig. 5: Projection of the expected nuclear capacity in the EU
Fig 6: Distribution of operational and planned shutdown for NPPs in the enlarged EU.
Fig 7: Distribution of age of NPPs in the EU.
Fig. 8: Impact of 50% increase in costs of fuels
Fig. 9: Comparison of the Geopolitical distribution of imports of uranium and gas into the EU.
Fig. 10.1: Geopolitical distribution of uranium sources.
Fig. 10.2: Uranium sources available by price range.
Figure 11: Range of levelised costs of electricity generation.
EN
11
EN