The India Pakistan Conflict and the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty
Samuel E. Tyre
Ethics of Development in a Global Environment 297A
Professor Bruce Lusignan
December 5, 2003
Tyre 2
Table of Contents
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………2
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.…………………………………………………..4
India-Pakistan Conflict…………………………………………………………………..11
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….16
Works Cited and Other Works Consulted………………………………………………18
Tyre 3
Introduction
The twentieth century saw a huge growth in the destructive powers of nations and
their individual militaries. The invention of the planes, bombs, and eventually missiles
has led to an increase in range and destructive power. The United States use of two
bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, brought worldwide attention to the ultimate
in destructive power: atomic weapons. Soon after the conclusion of the Second World
War, governments joined together in an attempt to prevent nuclear proliferation with the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty became a reality
in 1968 and has since become the most widely signed arms control document in the
world. However, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is not the only means to establish
peace in a nuclear aged world.
With the possession and resulting deterrence of nuclear weapons, both India and
Pakistan have come to coexist with nuclear arsenals. Despite the religious hatred
between Muslims and Hindus that has plagued the region for years, not a single nuclear
arm has been used. One cannot deny the added threat of nuclear weapons, however
neither side has used a nuclear arm on the other as a result of deterrence.
The following paper will trace the history of both the Nonproliferation Treaty and
the India-Pakistan conflict. It will conclude with a brief analysis of how both the treaty
and the conflict are important to keeping nuclear peace.
Tyre 4
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also referred to as the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is an ongoing solution to the proliferation that
began soon after the conclusion of World War II. With the US bombing of Hiroshima
and Nagasaki in 1945, the destructive power of the atom bomb was witnessed by the
world. The immense power display caused immediate discomfort to national
governments without nuclear capabilities. In particular, the USSR was concerned with
the power which the US held. The discomfort around the globe led to the eventual
creation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1968 (www.un.org). Soon after
opening for signatures, many nations joined the Treaty. By March of 2002, a total of 187
nations had joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in an attempt to increase security
from the most dangerous weapon known to man. The following section will trace the
history of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty beginning in 1946 until 2002.
Soon after the conclusion of the Second World War, the rivalry between the US
and the Soviet Union caused a conflict, which in turn prevented an agreement to stop the
spread of nuclear weapons. “On January 24, 1946, the United Nations General Assembly
established the U.N. Atomic Energy Commission ‘to deal with the problems raised by the
discovery of nuclear energy.’ Due to disagreements between the United States and the
Soviet Union, this commission was unsuccessful in drafting a nonproliferation treaty”
(cnsdl.miis.edu). According to the plan, international control and ownership of all
nuclear weapons would commence once all nations gave up their individual nuclear
programs to this body, with the final nation to concede being the US. However, this plan
was met with great opposition by the Soviet Union. By 1949, the USSR tested their first
Tyre 5
nuclear weapon and within one year, both the USSR and the US were engaged in a
nuclear arms race (cnsdl.miis.edu).
While this arms race continued, the 1950’s saw a recognition of the benefits of
nuclear energy as well as the dangers of proliferation. During the decade both “Atoms
for Peace” and EURATOM were established. The Atoms for Peace program was
established on December 8, 1953 by President Eisenhower. Under this program, the US
obtained cooperation from forty nations between 1956 and 1959. The Atoms for Peace
program “provided research reactors, nuclear training and fissionable material to twentysix states, all of which accepted safeguards implemented by the U.S. In exchange for the
transfer of peaceful nuclear technology…the United States would require safeguards - the
continual monitoring of the transferred technology by inspectors to ensure it was not used
for military purposes” (cnsdl.miis.edu). EURATOM, established January 1, 1958 was a
similar program established in Europe to strengthen the European Community.
EURATOM created “a regional nuclear safeguards system to facilitate peaceful nuclear
development and cooperation and to guard against nuclear weapons proliferation”
(cnsdl.miis.edu). Both of these programs were applauded by the public for increasing
communication and international safety. However, the French testing of a nuclear
weapon in 1960 changed the world view. “For the first time in history, a country had
developed its own bomb independently and against the will of the superpowers. This
raised fears regarding which other country would follow suit” (cnsdl.miis.edu). Along
with the French, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland
were actively researching nuclear technology. If any of these countries acquired nuclear
capabilities, they would pose a huge threat to other nations, especially superpowers. To
Tyre 6
further clarify, smaller countries such as Germany, Italy, etc. did not possess armies large
or strong enough to threaten the US or USSR. However, nuclear bombing capabilities
were a threatening force that could not be overlooked by either nation.
The French nuclear test was soon followed by two events that further underscored
the necessity of nuclear weapons, the Cuban Missile Crisis and China’s nuclear test. In
October 1962, the Cuban Missile brought the US and the Soviet Union to the edge of
war. This standoff also renewed “international pressure to halt atmospheric nuclear
testing [and sign] a Partial Test Ban Treaty negotiated by the U.S., U.K., and the USSR”
(cnsdl.miis.edu). The Chinese nuclear test in October of 1964 also brought attention to
devising an international treaty to prevent further nuclear weapon proliferation.
In addition, the heightening Cold War tension underscored the dangers of nuclear
war as well as helped create nuclear umbrellas. These nuclear umbrellas provided
alliances and alternatives to “the national development of nuclear weapons, by providing
nuclear defense guarantees respectively by the US and USSR” (cnsdl.miis.edu). The US
extended protection under NATO and the USSR under the Warsaw Treaty Organization
(Warsaw Pact). The Soviet domination of Eastern Europe precluded the development of
nuclear weapons in many nations. With this bipolar tension rising, both nations delivered
a large number of weapons to their respective European allies. The US also exported
weapons to South Korea. The weapons put in place by the Soviets remain exclusively
under Soviet control. “In contrast, several…NATO members under the aegis of the
Nuclear Planning Group engaged in military planning and exercises designed to deliver
U.S. nuclear weapons using allied aircraft and crews. This aspect of NATO's nuclear
doctrine and planning remains controversial to this day” (cnsdl.miis.edu). Clearly, the
Tyre 7
increase in tension was going to continue until both sides were willing to come together
and find a solution.
In 1965 the international community united and began the creation of the NPT. A
United Nations resolution established five necessary principles of the NPT:





Both…must be obligated not to engage in any type of nuclear-weapon
proliferation;
There should be an appropriate balance between the obligations undertaken
The Treaty should constitute a step toward nuclear disarmament, as well as
toward general and complete disarmament;
There should be practical provisions to ensure the Treaty's effectiveness; and
The establishment of nuclear-weapon-free zones should not be curtailed in any
way under the Treaty. (cnsdl.miis.edu)
Both the US and SU agreed with the five principles above. However, as both nations
drew up drafts of the NPT, the US included plans for a Multilateral Nuclear Force
(MLF). The MLF called for armed nuclear naval vessels under the control of the
multinational NATO military command. The reason for the US proposal of the MLF was
to reassure its allies of the credibility of the US nuclear umbrella. However, this plan was
met with great opposition by the Soviet Union and was eventually dropped by the US in
1967 (cnsdl.miis.edu).
As negotiations continued, an agreement came closer. The US and Soviet Union
each submitted a version of the treaty to the Eighteen-Nation Disarmament Committee on
March 11, 1968. After making minor changes, the UN General Assembly asked that the
three depository governments, United States, United Kingdom and the Soviet Union,
open for signatures. With the creation of the final version, the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty opened for signatures on July 1, 1968 (cnsdl.miss.edu).
Tyre 8
The details of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty were explicit. According to
the document:
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), obligates the five
acknowledged nuclear-weapon states (the United States, Russian
Federation, United Kingdom, France, and China) not to transfer nuclear
weapons, other nuclear explosive devices, or their technology to any nonnuclear-weapon state. Non-nuclear-weapon States Parties undertake not
to acquire or produce nuclear weapons or nuclear explosive devices. They
are required also to accept safeguards to detect diversions of nuclear
materials from peaceful activities, such as power generation, to the
production of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. This
must be done in accordance with an individual safeguards agreement,
concluded between each non-nuclear-weapon State Party and the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (www.fas.org)
Under these clear guidelines, there was hope to end the threat of nuclear weapons and
nuclear warfare. If any country was to sign onto the NPT, they were to unconditionally
agree to the document and follow all rules. Initially the United States, United Kingdom,
Soviet Union and 59 other nations joined the NPT. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
was put in place on the fifth of March 1970. As time went on, more nations joined the
NPT. On March 9, 1992 China joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and on August
3, 1992 France joined as well. In 1996, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan removed and
transferred their remaining nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation (www.fas.org).
Tyre 9
As more nations joined the NPT, it became the most widely accepted arms control
agreement in the world.
As of 2001, 187 nations had signed on to the NPT. The members of the Treaty
are constantly changing as are the threats from certain nations. In 2001, five nations had
recognized nuclear abilities:





China: About 300 strategic warheads
France: Less than 500 strategic warheads
Russia: 6,094 deployed strategic warheads
United Kingdom: Less than 200 strategic warheads
United States: 7,295 deployed strategic warheads (www.armscontrol.org)
In addition to these five countries, India, Pakistan and Israel are believed to possess or be
able to create nuclear weapons. These three nations are labeled as “Unrecognized
Nuclear-Weapon States.” In addition to these three countries, there are also current
members such as North Korea, Iran and Libya that are members of the NPT, but also
concern the international community. As of 2001, Iraq was also a concern, however in
light of the past year’s events, no longer remains a threat to international security.
Recognized
Unrecognized
Nuclear Weapon Nuclear-Weapon
States
States
China
France
Russia
United Kingdom
United States
India
Israel
Pakistan
States of Immediate Recent Adherents to
Proliferation
the Non-Proliferation
Concern
Treaty
North Korea
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Figure 1: Source www.armscontrol.org
Algeria
Argentina
Belarus
Brazil
Kazakhstan
South Africa
Ukraine
Tyre 10
The process of creating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty began soon after the
creation of the atomic bomb and is an ongoing process as of today. After the first
Russian test of nuclear weapons in 1949, the two major atomic rivals, the Soviet Union
and the US began an arms race with no end in sight. However, the pressure posed by the
international community as well as each other led to the eventual creation of the NPT.
With the initial 62 signatures in 1968, the Treaty has grown to be accepted by 187 nations
as the most widely accepted arms control document in the world.
Tyre 11
India-Pakistan Conflict
The conflict between India and Pakistan has been a great source of tension since
both nations gained their independence from Britain in 1947. The most heated part of
debate is the region of Kashmir, a relatively small price of land, about the size of Utah,
adjacent to both India and Pakistan. Not only is this area important because it boarders
China and Russia, but it has become and important symbol to each nation. India claims
that if it loses the mostly Muslim region of Kashmir, the 140 million Muslims currently
living in India will likely want to break from India’s government (www.cbsnews.com).
Neither India nor Pakistan wants to lose the state of Kashmir to the other. Over the
following section, a history of the conflict will be explained, and the potential
destructiveness of a nuclear war to the people of the India/Pakistan region.
In 1947 both India and Pakistan were given their freedom from Britain. The
acquisition of freedom bred a new conflict: what should be done with Kashmir?
“Kashmir was given the choice of being governed by either country. While Maharaja,
Hari Singh, then provincial leader of Kashmir preferred independence, he allowed the
key powers of government to be given to India in return for military protection”
(usgovinfo.about.com). Clearly, Hari Singh’s giving of key government powers to India
was a sign the military protection and safety were of utmost importance. However, as the
next half century played out, two wars and a number of smaller conflicts, brought
minimal amounts of this planned protection and peace.
As British control was coming to an end in 1947, a series of hostile events created
a foundation for the conflict to come. The Muslim people of the region demanded that a
Tyre 12
nation separate from India be established (www.cbsnews.com). This was requested
because the Muslim population feared that if a separate nation was not created, Muslims
would forever be a second-class citizens under the Hindu rule of India. On “August 1415, British India was divided into predominately Hindu India and mostly Muslim
Pakistan—consisting of Urdu-speaking West Pakistan and Bangla-speaking East
Pakistan. Mohammed Ali Jinnah became president of Pakistan and Jawaharial Nehru
became prime minister of India” (www.cbsnews.com). However, it was the weeks prior
to this establish of different states that would provide the foundation for conflict.
Millions of Hindu refugees relocated in the new nation of India while millions of
Muslims fled India for Pakistan. While this mass migration was going on, religious
tensions increased and riots broke out. It is known that at least 200,000 people were
killed, but some estimates make the number as high as 2 million (www.cbsnews.com).
To further increase the problems, war broke out in October. Pakistani troops launched a
surprise attack to capture the Muslim-dominated region of Kashmir. Faced with this
conflict, India offered the Hindu leader of Kashmir military support in exchange for
becoming a part of India. The Kashmir maharajah agreed and became a part of India
(www.cbsnews.com). Pakistani and Indian tensions remained through the end of the
year. Pakistani troops continued to make progress in the northern portion of Kashmir. In
1948, “the United Nations was able to broker a cease-fire between the warring nations
and established a ‘Line of Control.’ The new boarder split Kashmir almost in half, with
Pakistan keeping control north of the border and India to the south” (www.cbsnews.com).
A temporary peace was established.
Tyre 13
The year 1965 saw another surprise attempt by Pakistan to claim Kashmir. In
September of 1965, the two sides battled for three weeks until the United Nations secured
a cease-fire as it had done in 1948. In 1966, “Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri
and Pakistani President Ayub Khan signed a Soviet-mediated peace pact that once again
defined the ‘Line of Control’ in Kashmir” (www.cbsnews.com). Over the next decade,
Pakistan was plagued by the separation by Bangladesh. However, during this event, both
Pakistan and India were able to secretly develop weapons: “both sides secretly developed
their nuclear weapons program and constructed long-range missiles capable of delivering
nuclear warheads. India successfully conducted its first test of a nuclear device in 1974”
(www.cbsnews.com). The stakes of the conflict had been raised. No longer was each
side to worry about the others army, but instead, the others nuclear capabilities. As time
passed, tensions continued to rise between India and Pakistan. Not only was the dispute
of the region of Kashmir in debate, but religious tensions between Hindus and Muslims
were increasing as well.
In 1998 the India-Pakistan conflict almost created a nuclear war. Both sides had
nuclear abilities: “India, which had already detonated a nuclear device in 1974, declared
itself a nuclear state after conducting five tests from May 11-13 in the western desert
state of Rajasthan, near the border with Pakistan. On May 28, Pakistan responded by
detonating five nuclear devices within minutes of each other and a sixth later in the day”
(www.cbsnews.com). Both states were flexing their capabilities toward one another.
These tests were sending a simple message to the opposition’s leader: we have the same
ability to retaliate that you possess. With the recognition of nuclear capabilities, tensions
continue to remain high. At the end of 2001, in response to India’s government accusing
Tyre 14
Pakistan’s intelligence service for having sponsored two militant group attacks on
parliament in New Delhi, both India and Pakistan massed tens of thousands of troops
along their common boarder (www.cbsnews.com). However, both sides eventually
backed down in the face of not only war, but nuclear war. Then “[o]n Jan. 1, 2002, India
and Pakistan renewed an agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities. While
viewed as a step back from war, the countries had earlier reduced diplomatic relations
and banned most travel across their common border. Massive troop buildups along the
border continue to be spiked by regular exchanges of small arms and mortar fire”
(usgovinfo.about.com). The dispute between India and Pakistan remains a sensitive issue
that must be constantly monitored by not only both sides, but the world as well.
To give a better perspective on the conflict, a number of projections have been
made on the potential damage of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The Natural
Resources Defense Council estimates that the total number of nuclear weapons in the
region is 50 to 75 weapons. Pakistan is believed to have about ten more then India. The
NDRC “estimates their explosive yields are 5 to 25 kilotons (1 kiloton is equivalent to
1,000 tons of TNT). By comparison, the yield of the weapon the United States exploded
over Hiroshima was 15 kilotons, while the bomb that exploded over Nagasaki was 21
kilotons” (www.nrdc.org). The number of warheads possessed by India and Pakistan, in
combination with their destructive capabilities, makes the situation even scarier. There
has been a study done to estimate the damage of nuclear attacks in the region. This study
titled “The Risks and Consequences of Nuclear War in South Asia," by NRDC physicist
Matthew McKinzie and Princeton scientists Zia Mian, A. H. Nayyar and M. V. Ramana,
hypothesizes about the effects of a nuclear attack by both sides. This study assumes that
Tyre 15
five Indian and five Pakistani cities are attacked. In addition, each city is attacked with a
15 kiloton nuclear weapon (similar to those used in Japan during World War II). The
results are as follows:
Estimated nuclear casualties for attacks on 10 large Indian and Pakistani cities
City Name
Total Population Within Number of
Number of
5 Kilometers of Ground Persons Killed Persons Severely
Zero
Injured
Number of
Persons Slightly
Injured
India
Bangalore
3,077,937
314,978
175,136
411,336
Bombay
3,143,284
477,713
228,648
476,633
Calcutta
3,520,344
357,202
198,218
466,336
Madras
3,252,628
364,291
196,226
448,948
New Delhi
1,638,744
176,518
94,231
217,853
Total India
14,632,937
1,690,702
892,459
2,021,106
Pakistan
Faisalabad
2,376,478
336,239
174,351
373,967
Islamabad
798,583
154,067
66,744
129,935
Karachi
1,962,458
239,643
126,810
283,290
Lahore
2,682,092
258,139
149,649
354,095
Rawalpindi
1,589,828
183,791
96,846
220,585
Total
Pakistan
9,409,439
1,171,879
614,400
1,361,872
1,506,859
3,382,978
India and Pakistan
Total
24,042,376
2,862,581
Figure 2: www.nrdc.org
A conflict of this magnitude would be catastrophic. As the above chart indicates, over
2.8 million civilians would lose their lives and over 4.5 million would be injured. The
world and these two nations must do everything in their abilities to avoid such a conflict.
Tyre 16
Conclusion
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is an important document in maintaining
world peace. It attempts to minimize the possibility of a nuclear attack on any nation.
The prevention of nuclear war will save hundreds of thousands of civilian lives.
However, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty may not be the best solution for all
problems. For example, the standoff between the Indians and Pakistani peoples may be
best dealt with using proliferation. As Kenneth N. Waltz argues, “[c]alculations about
nuclear war are made differently. A nuclear world calls for a different kind of reasoning.
If countries armed with nuclear weapons go to war, they do so knowing that their
suffering may be unlimited” (Sagan and Waltz 7). This quote perfectly fits the current
and past situation in Pakistan and India. Neither India, not Pakistan are willing to
drastically change their individual behaviors in fear of nuclear war. Both sides must fear
the other being irrational. With this sentiment, any single behavior could cause a nuclear
attack. This attack would in turn cause a horrific war.
The key notion of this conflict is deterrence. It is through deterrence that both
sides are able to prevent the other from resorting to nuclear weapons. Waltz states:
“[d]eterrence is achieved not through the ability to defend but through the ability to
punish” (Sagan and Waltz 3). In this case, both sides are deterred because of the others
ability to punish using nuclear weapons. Although the Pakistani army may be inferior to
India’s, the deterrence factor possessed by both sides, especially Pakistan, is undeniable.
The fact that both sides have nuclear weapons has been an alternative to the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty that has kept the region relatively stable.
Tyre 17
Clearly peace and safety can be achieved a number of ways. For most of the
world, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty holds true and keeps dangerous weapons
from becoming widespread. However, India and Pakistan are two exceptions to the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that may prove that proliferation may indeed make the
region more stable. Both countries possess weapons of mass destruction and the threat of
either side using them makes all-out war less of an option. The deterrence factor that
comes with the acquisition of nuclear bombs must be recognized in this situation. The
only question that looms is the following: will the possession of nuclear weapons by
India and Pakistan continue to deter the other? Hopefully the nuclear weapons will
continue to keep both sides at bay.
Tyre 18
Works Cited
Kimball, Daryl. The State of Nuclear Proliferation 2001. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/statefct.asp>.
Sagan, Scott D., and Waltz Kenneth N. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. New York:
W. W. Norton and Company, 1995.
The consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan. Jun. 6 2002. 04 Dec.
2003 <http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp>.
The India and Pakistan Conflict. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/india_pakistan/home.html>.
India – Pakistan: Background & Threat. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa010202a.htm>.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT]. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/>.
Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons: History. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://cnsdl.miis.edu/npt/npt_3/history.htm>.
NPT: Brief Background. 04 Dec. 2003 < http://www.un.org/Depts/dda/WMD/treaty/>.
Other Works Consulted
Spring, Baker. Ten Principles for Combating Nuclear Proliferation. 10 Apr. 2003. 04
Dec. 2003 < http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/hl783.cfm>.
Historical Background. 04 December 2003
<http://www.ummah.org.uk/kashmir/history.htm>.
India and Pakistan: Fifty Years of Independence. 04 Dec. 2003
<http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9708/India97/index.html>.
India-Pakistan Nuclear Central. 04 Dec. 2003 < http://www.nci.org/ind-pak2.htm>.
Tyre 19