Sample homework: Paxton
This is a real student homework from a few years ago. It is not perfect, but it gives you an
idea about how to combine quantitative data with descriptive text. The content of the
homework is different from your homework. I am only using it so you can see the use of
graphs, quantitative data, and text.
Things to note:
All figures and tables have title and source. Although this paper does not do it, I
would label each figure and table individually so that the first figure below says Figure 1:
Total Population. I would then refer to Figure 1 in the text. There are no tables in this
homework, but you might have one in yours. Tables should be labeled separately, starting
with Table 1.
Each question is numbered separately
All equations are written out and the steps are shown
Each questions combines data with a narrative text
Specific facts about the country enrich the data: other sources are used
There is NO formula for what to include in any question. It can be based on the
information you find. For some questions, you may choose to expand with cross country
analysis or time series trends and for others, you may choose to be more concise. There is no
one way to answer the questions. The homework below is an A.
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Ecuador: Population Analysis
Total Population
Population (millions)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: World Development Indicators database
Population growth (annual %)
Population growth (annual %)
1)
In 2004, Ecuador had an
estimated population of 13.2 million
people. That makes Ecuador the 63rd
largest country in the world in terms
of population even though it is only
the 72nd largest country in terms of
land area. This slight discrepancy
indicates that it is somewhat densely
populated and has more people than
would be expected of a country its
size. Ecuador is the seventh largest
country in South America.
As illustrated by the graphs to
the right, Ecuador’s population grew
at very high rates through much of
the 1960s and 1970s. The annual
rate of population growth peaked in
the mid-1960s at 2.99%. Due to
these high growth rates, the
population doubled from about 4
million in 1960 to just under 8 million
in 1980. During the 1980s and 1990s
population growth rates slowed
significantly and had stabilized to
around 1.5% by the end of the
century. Factors contributing to
slowing growth will be discussed
below.
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: World Development Indicators database
2)
Statistics for 2004 from the U.S. Census Bureau, International Database:
Population = 13,212,742
Births/1000 = 23.18 = 23,180/million
Deaths/1000 = 4.26 = 4,200/million
Net migration/1000 = -8.58 = -8,580/million
Demographic equation:
P(2005) = P(2004) + (births-deaths) + (net migration)
P(2005) = 13,212,742 + (23,180-4,260) + (-8,580)
P(2005) = 13,223,082
Based on statistics from 2004, the population in 2005 will be 13,223,082.
NOTE FROM PROF. PAXTON: You may want to put in some text here (definitions, time
trends or country comparisons)
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3)
Using the statistics from the previous problem, for 2004:
Estimated Total Births = 23.18 x 13,213 = 306,277.34
Estimated Total Deaths = 4.26 x 13,213 = 56,287.38
Estimated Total Net Migration = -8.58 x 13,213 = -113,387.54
Total Growth Rate (2004) = (Births-Deaths) + Net migration x 100
Population
g(2004) = (306,377.34-56,287.38) + (-113,387.54) x 100
13,212,742
g(2004) = 1.034%
Time for Population to Double = 72/percent population growth
= 72/1.034 = 69.6 years
Based on the current growth rate, the population will double in 69.6 years.
4)
There are a number of
Factors Affecting Changes in Population
factors that have contributed to
120 107
the slowing population growth
100
discussed in the first question.
71.0
69.8
80
68.1
First, infant mortality rates have
64
60
fallen significantly. The blue line
64.5
58.9
34
54.7
in the graph to the right shows
40
24
that the infant mortality rate
20
6.7
6
3.7
4.7
dropped drastically from a high of
3.1
2.7
0
107 per 1,000 live births in 1960
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
to 64 in 1980 and only 24 in 2003.
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
However, when compared to
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
some of its neighbors, Ecuador
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
still has a somewhat high infant
mortality rate, especially when
Source: World Development Indicators database
compared to a more developed
Com parative Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality Rates
(2002)
country like Chile with only 10
Chile
infant deaths per 1,000 births.
70
80
Second, while the fertility 70
Venezuela
60
50
rate was above 6 children per
Colombia
40
25
woman during the 1960s and
30
Ecuador
20
early 1970s, it fell to under 5
10
Peru
0
children in the 1980s, under 4
Life expectancy at birth
Infant mortality rate
children in the 1990s, and
(years)
(deaths per 1,000 live
stabilized to under 3 children in
births)
the early 2000s. These changes
are illustrated by the green line in
Source: World Development Indicators database
the upper graph. Some of the reasons for this decreasing fertility rate were the increased use
of family planning and greater participation of women in the labor force (Economist
Intelligence Unit, Ecuador Country Profile, August 2004).
Third, life expectancy improved in the last fifty years as illustrated by the red line in
the upper graph. This change reflects the general improvement in health in the last 50 years.
Yet Ecuador still ranks behind some its neighbors as shown by the bottom graph.
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The two graphs to the
Trends in Births, Deaths, and Migration
right highlight the main factors
50
contributing to population growth.
40
During the 1950s and 1960s
death rates fell sharply while birth
30
rates fell only slightly. This
20
discrepancy led to very high growth
rates, especially in the second half
10
of the 1960s when births were still
0
very high and deaths had dropped
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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significantly. During the 1970s and
1980s, death rates continued to fall
-20
slightly but births dropped
Births/1,000
Deaths/1,000
Net migrants/1,000
significantly, leading to slowing
population growth. Again, increased
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
use of family planning and greater
Population growth rates
participation of women in the labor
3.5
force contributed to this falling birth
3
rate. Since net migration was zero
throughout these decades, population 2.5
2
growth resulted only from the natural
1.5
increase of the population.
1
During the 1990s death rates
0.5
fell marginally and birth rates
0
continued to decline which led to a
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
falling rate of natural increase
Rate of natural increase (%)
Growth rate (%)
illustrated by the red line in the graph
to the right. However, the main
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
factor that slowed population growth in the 1990s was the new trend of mass emigration to
the United States, Spain, and Italy. The impact of migration is illustrated by the red line in
the upper graph which is what pulled down the blue growth rate line in bottom graph during
the 1990s-2000s. The positive value for net migration in 2001 which caused the growth rate
to jump back to over 2% is suspected to be an error since over half a million people were
estimated to have emigrated in 2001 alone, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística
y Censos (INEC). While the U.S. had been the main destination for migrants prior to 1995,
Spain has become the primary destination in the past ten years. It now attracts over one-half
of all migrants. The economic crisis of the late 1990s was one of the main factors that fueled
emigration in the past five years. This mass emigration has not only reduced population
growth, but has also had a great effect on the economy with remittances becoming the second
largest source of foreign currency at $1.54 billion in 2003 (Economist Intelligence Unit,
Ecuador Country Profile, August 2004).
Rural to urban migration
is another trend that has characterized
the past fifty years. The graph to the
Changes in Urban and Rural Population
70
60
50
40
30
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right shows that the rural population
accounted for over 60% of the
population in 1960 while the urban
population accounted for just over
30%. Due to the changing economic
structure away from agriculture and
into industry and services, people
began migrating to the cities looking
for greater opportunities. This trend
has continued steadily over the past
five decades such that the urban
population now accounts for over
60% of the population and the rural
population accounts for around 40%.
Source: World Development Indicators database
The three largest cities, Guayaquil, Quito, and Cuenca, accounted for about 30% of the total
population through most of the 1980s and 1990s. Although these statistics indicate that
Ecuador has a strongly urban population, its level of urbanization still falls below the
regional average (Economist Intelligence Unit, Ecuador Country Profile, August 2004).
As shown by the graph to
the right, Ecuador has a very young
population. In 1960, the population
under the age of 15 accounted for
43.5% of the population and the
working-age population (15-64)
accounted for just over 50%. Due to
the decreasing fertility rates of the
1970s and 1980s that were discussed
previously, the percent of the
population under age 15 gradually
dropped in the 1980s and 1990s
such that it now accounts for around
30% of the population and the
population ages 15-64 accounts for
just over 60%. Even though the age
structure of the population has
changed somewhat, it remains a
predominantly young population.
Change in Age Structure of Population
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Population ages 0-14 (% of total)
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
Population ages 65 and above (% of total)
Source: World Development Indicators database
The following population pyramids from the U.S. Census Bureau International
Database further illustrate the changing age structure of the population. The first graph
shows that the population was very skewed with a large base of young people in 1990 and
very few people at the top. By 2000, the population was still supported by a large base of
young people, but it was slightly less skewed. The predicted pyramids for 2010 and 2020
indicate that this trend toward a less skewed population distribution will continue such that
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by 2020, Ecuador will have a population distribution that resembles that of more developed
countries.
5)
In the past five years, Ecuador has begun to feel spillover effects from the ongoing
conflict in Colombia. In September of 2000, heavy fighting began in Colombia’s Putumayo
Province which borders Ecuador. As a result of the escalating conflict, by October 19, an
estimated 1,000 people had fled their homes since the beginning of the month and 225 of
them had crossed the San Miguel and Putumayo Rivers into Ecuador (Juan Forero: “Fighting
in Colombia Stops Commerce and Creates Refugees.” The New York Times, 10/19/00).
Since 2000, the northern border area has continued to be impacted by refugees from
the Colombian conflict. In addition to the increasing flow of refugees, criminal activity in
the border area has seen a huge upsurge. Hundreds of farmers living in the area have
reported being forced off their land by armed gunmen. The movement of Colombian
guerillas into Ecuador has become the country’s most serious security threat. Camps of
guerillas belonging to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) have been
discovered within Ecuadorian territory and the Ecuadorian military has occasionally clashed
with the guerillas. Consequently, many Ecuadorians fear that the country could get dragged
into the conflict (Economist Intelligence Unit, Ecuador Country Profile, August 2004).
6)
Demographic Transition:
o Phase 1: A period of stable or slow
Trends in Births, Deaths, and Migration
population growth characterized by
50
high birth and death rates. Most likely,
40
Ecuador was in this phase until
improvements in medicine and health
30
20
10
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0
1950
-10
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
were made possible in the twentieth
century. It is difficult to say when
this stage ended since data is
unavailable before 1950.
o Phase 2: A period of rapid
population growth characterized by
falling death rates and birth rates that
remain high. Ecuador had already
entered this stage by the 1950s and was
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
recording growth rates above 2.5%.
Population growth rates
Death rates continued to fall rapidly
3.5
during the 1950s and 1960s while
3
birth rates remained high. This
2.5
discrepancy is what caused population
2
growth to peak above 3% during the
1.5
1960s, as discussed previously.
1
o Stage 3: A period of slowing
0.5
population growth brought on by
0
declining fertility rates that result from
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
the socioeconomic development of the
Rate of natural increase (%)
Growth rate (%)
country. Eventually, birth rates
converge with death rates to leave little
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
to no population growth. Ecuador seems to have entered this phase as birth rates began
declining in the 1970s and 1980s. However, birth rates still remain relatively high at above
20 births per 1,000 people, and the country would still be experiencing growth around 2% if
emigration were not pulling down the growth rate. It remains to be seen whether birth rates
will continue to drop as the country develops and bring growth to an equilibrium level.
Population Momentum: Even in the face of decreasing fertility rates, a country may still
experience population growth and growth could even increase. This population momentum
results from the age structure of the population. Since there is such a large population of
young people, even if each woman has fewer children, there will be more children born since
there are more women of child-bearing age. Ecuador does seem to be experiencing this trend
even though fertility rates have fallen since it still has a predominantly young population. It
will continue to experience population momentum until the base of the population pyramid
becomes smaller. However, Ecuador has not seen increasing population growth result from
this momentum.
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