Table S1. Models of diversification used in this study with descriptions of parameters. Speciation Extinction Reference Morlon Coalescent Model 1 Constant, saturated diversity Constant Moran 1951; Hey 1992; Nee 2001; Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 2 Variable, saturated diversity Varianble Rabosky 2009, Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 3 Constant Constant Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 4a Variable (decreasing) Constant Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 4b Constant Variable (increasing) Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 4c Variable (decreasing) Variable (decreasing) Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 4d Variable (decreasing) Variable (increasing) Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 5 Constant NA Morlon et al. 2010 Morlon Coalescent Model 6 Variable (decreasing) NA Morlon et al. 2010 Yule Constant NA Yule 1924 Yule-incomplete sampling Constant with incomplete sampling NA Nee et al. 1994 Birth Death Constant speciation Constant Kendall 1948 Birth Death-incomplete sampling Constant speciation with incomplete sampling Constant Nee et al. 1994 Yule 2 Variable (changes at fixed times) NA Barraclough and Vogler 2002, Raboskty 2006 Monotonic Decay Variable (decreases monotonically) NA Rabosky and Lovette 2008a Hyperbolic Decay Variable (hyperbolic decay of high initial speciation rate) Constant Strathmann and Slatkin 1983 Diversity Dependent Linear Variable (changes linearly given carrying capacity) NA Nee et al. 1992; Nee and Harvey 1994; Rabosky and Lovette 2008a Diversity Dependent Exponential Variable (changes exponentially given carrying capacity) NA Nee et al. 1992; Nee and Harvey 1994; Rabosky and Lovette 2008a Variable Speciation Variable Constant Nee et al. 1994; Rabosky and Lovette 2008b Variable Extinction Constant Variable Nee et al. 1994; Rabosky and Lovette 2008b Variable Speciation and Extinction Variable Variable Nee et al. 1994; Rabosky and Lovette 2008b Diversity Dependence with missing data and extinction Variable (changes given K) Variable Etienne et al. 2011 Model Coalescent Models Standard Likelihood Models Barraclough, TG, AP Vogler. 2002. Recent Diversification Rates in North American Tiger Beetles Estimated from a Dated mtDNA Phylogenetic Tree. Molecular Biology and Evolution 19:1706-1716. Etienne, RS, B Haegeman, T Stadler, T Aze, PN Pearson, A Purvis, AB Phillimore. 2011. Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. Hey, J. 1992. Using Phylogenetic Trees to Study Speciation and Extinction. Evolution 46:627-640. Kendall, DG. 1948. On the Generalized "Birth-and-Death" Process. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 19:1-15. Moran, PAP. 1951. Estimation Methods for Evolutive Processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological) 13:141-146. Morlon, H, MD Potts, JB Plotkin. 2010. Inferring the Dynamics of Diversification: A Coalescent Approach. Plos Biology 8:-. Nee, S, RM May, PH Harvey. 1994. The Reconstructed Evolutionary Process. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 344:305-311. Nee, S, AO Mooers, PH Harvey. 1992. Tempo and Mode of Evolution Revealed from Molecular Phylogenies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 89:8322-8326. Rabosky, DL. 2006. Likelihood methods for detecting temporal shifts in diversification rates. Evolution 60:1152-1164. Rabosky, DL. 2009. Ecological limits and diversification rate: alternative paradigms to explain the variation in species richness among clades and regions. Ecology Letters 12:735-743. Rabosky, DL, IJ Lovette. 2008a. Density-dependent diversification in North American wood warblers. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 275:2363-2371. Rabosky, DL, IJ Lovette. 2008b. Explosive evolutionary radiations: Decreasing speciation or increasing extinction through time? Evolution 62:1866-1875. Yule, G. 1924. A mathematical theory of evolution based on the conclusions of Dr. J.C. Willis, F.R.S. . Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (Series B) 213:21-87.