4. Instrument Performance and Expected Results Modeling Procedure The expected performance of the BEST instrument has been evaluated using a GEANTbased simulation of the generation, propagation, and detection of synchrotron photons produced by UHE electrons in the Earth’s magnetic field. The magnetic field model used in this study is based on the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) for 2003. Electrons are tracked from a starting altitude of 400 km down to a balloon altitude corresponding to 5 g/cm 2 of vertical atmospheric overburden. The synchrotron photons generated by the electron are propagated to balloon altitude, accounting for losses due to absorption and scattering in the atmosphere. The atmospheric model used in the simulation is based on the 1976 U.S. Standard Atmosphere. Figure 4.1 shows the location of the primary electron and the surviving synchrotron photons on a horizontal plane at Figure 4-1 10TeV Electron and synchrotron photons at balloon altidude. balloon altitude for a 10 TeV electron at a zenith angle of 45 degrees. In this particular event, 95 synchrotron photons with energies greater than 10 keV were generated at altitudes between 400 km and balloon altitude. The surviving photons in this event lie on a ~ 120m long track in this horizontal plane, with the photon density increasing near the electron transit point. The detection of these photons is simulated through the use of a detailed model of the interaction of the photons in the BGO detector and subsequent signal generation. Effective Area vs Primary Energy The detection of an UHE electron is based on the observation of signals above threshold in multiple isolated BGO cells, all occurring with the proper relationship in time. For a vertically incident electron, all synchrotron photons will arrive at the detector well within the 1 ns resolving time of the BGO/PMT detector. In general, the difference in propagation time for two photons is given roughly by l sec(z)/c, where l is the distance between the observed locations of the two photons, and z is the zenith angle of the electron. The relationship between the measured Figure 4-2 Effective area vs primary electron energy. time and location of the signals in the BGO array therefore allows a crude measurement of the zenith angle of the primary electron. Combined with the orientation of the line of synchrotron-induced signals in the array, this provides a full three dimensional trajectory for the electron. An estimate of the rate of background trigger events due to random coincidences of signals resulting from x-ray and charged particle backgrounds is presented below. The results of this background study indicate that a minimum of four co-linear signals within an effective 2 ns time window is needed to reduce the background rate to levels less than 1% that of the expected primary events, assuming a 40 keV signal threshold. The average detected photon energy increases rapidly with the energy of the primary electron, allowing the offline signal threshold to be scaled to the mean photon energy of an event, reducing the background rate at higher energy, and allowing one in principle to establish a looser requirement of three co-linear signals at these energies. However, in estimating the effective area of the instrument, we adopt the most conservative possible Figure 4-3 Distribution of the number of detector photons, for approach, and assume that a cluster a 10 TeV primary. of 4 or more co-linear in-time hits constitutes an observation. Based on this observational criteria, the effective area of the instrument can be obtained by determining the average area in which this criteria is met in a horizontal plane at balloon altitude, for an ensemble of isotropic events. The effective area is an increasing function of the primary energy, due to the increase in the intensity of synchrotron radiation with primary energy, and the reduced probability for loss of the photon in the atmosphere at higher photon energies. Figure 4-2 shows the effective area of the BEST instrument as a function of primary energy averaged over a south-polar orbit. Figure 4-3 shows the distribution of observed cluster size for 20 TeV electrons, illustrating that one could roughly double the effective area at this energy by reducing the minimum cluster size to three. The signal events result from primaries with a broad zenith angle distribution, as shown in Figure 4-4. Low zenith angle events are suppressed due to the smaller Figure 4-4 Zenith angle distribution of detected electrons. ‘footprint’ of the photon track at balloon altitude, and high zenith angle events are suppressed due to scattering and absorption of the synchrotron radiation in the atmosphere, and the smaller subtended area of the array at large zenith angle. Sensitivity to Magnetic Field and Overburden Variations The effective area of the instrument is dependent upon the magnetic field strength and orientation, as this determines the size of the synchrotron ‘footprint’ at balloon altitude, and on the overburden, which sets the probability for absorption of a photon in transit. It is, therefore, important to understand and compensate for these effects in order to obtain a measurement of the primary electron flux. Figure 4-5 shows the variation of effective area for 10 TeV electrons with longitude for a circumpolar orbit at latitude 70S. As illustrated in this figure, a variation in effective area (and hence event rate) of roughly a factor of two is seen at this energy. The accuracy of geomagnetic models is more than sufficient to correct for this effect at the level necessary to reduce this potential systematic error in the flux to Figure 4-5 Effective area vs longitude @ 70S latitude. levels well below the statistical errors inherent in this measurement. The modest level of variation in effective area is, in fact, beneficial, as the observed modulation of event rate with longitude will be used to verify the level of background contamination in the final event sample, exploiting the fact that the background event rates would not be expected to vary with longitude in this way. During an LDB or ULDB balloon flight, the atmospheric overburden can be expected to vary substantially, in particular due to day-night variations in the balloon altitude. Figure 4-6 shows the dependence of the detector effective area for 5 TeV electrons on atmospheric overburden. Atmospheric absorption of the synchrotron photons decreases with photon energy, and hence with the energy of the primary electron, reducing the dependence of the effective area on overburden at higher energies. The BEST payload Figure 4-6 Dependence of the effective area on overburden for 5 TeV primaries. will be instrumented with redundant sensors capable of 1% measurements of atmospheric pressure, which will clearly allow this dependence to be corrected for at the required level. One should note that this correction requires knowledge of x-ray attenuation coefficients, and the chemical composition in the upper atmosphere, to an accuracy well within the current state of the art in these areas. Determination of the Primary Electron Spectrum The basis for the primary electron energy measurement is the dependence of the average synchrotron photon energy on the energy of the primary. In Figures 4-7 & 4-8 we show Figure 4-7 Distribution of average observed photon energy for 2 and 10 TeV primary electrons. Figure 4-8 Distribution of average observed photon energy for 10 and 20 TeV primary electrons. the distribution of the average observed energy of the photons detected in a given event for 2, 10, and 20 TeV primaries. As these figures illustrate, a measurement of the average photon energy determines the energy of the primary electron to within roughly a factor of two. Simulations of the response of the instrument to a primary electron spectrum following a power law with a range of spectral indices were performed to determine the sensitivity of in a 100 day flight of the BEST instrument to the shape of the UHE electron spectrum. A representative example is shown in Figure 4-9, which compares the distribution of event-averaged photon energies observed assuming an E-3.1 input spectrum, and the observed photon energy Figure 4-9 Observed event-averaged photon energy for a distribution with the same spectral index, power law electron spectrum (black), and for a power law but assuming a cutoff in the primary flux spectrum with a cuttoff @ 10 TeV (red). at 10 TeV. In obtaining this result, we assume that the response function of the detector is well known. The response function depends upon well know properties of the upper atmosphere and geo-magnetic field, and the response of the BGO cells as a function of photon energy. An important component of our implementation plan is carrying out the laboratory and beam test measurements needed to verify that our understanding of the instrument response function is sufficient to allow a statistics-limited measurement of the UHE electron spectral shape. Backgrounds The rate of background events resulting from random coincidences of background x-ray events in the detector is obtained using the measured x-ray flux at balloon altitude reported in ( ). The veto system will reduce the contribution of charged particle backgrounds to a negligible level, and they are not considered here. A four-fold or greater coincidence of signals within a 2 cell wide linear region, and within a 2 ns effective time window, constitutes a potential background to real events. The expected number of such background events in a 100 day flight is shown in Figure 4-10 as a function of energy threshold in keV. Comparing Figure 4-10 with the distribution of mean photon energies for given primary energies, one sees that a trigger threshold Figure 4-10 Number of 4-fold random coincidences in 100 of 40 keV provides essentially 100% days vs the photon energy threshold. efficiency for detecting photons from a 2 TeV primary, while providing a background to the final event sample of less than 1 event in a 100 day flight. Experience teaches us that estimates of low energy background in balloon-borne experiments are subject to substantial errors, and our work plan includes the flight on a conventional balloon of a small prototype, which will be used to validate our background estimates through a direct measurement of neutral and charged particle singles rates as a function of energy, as discussed in section 5. Expected Number of Events As emphasized earlier in this proposal, there is great uncertainty in the electron flux at the extreme energies probed by this instrument. Not only can one expect that the electron spectrum at these energies will reflect the detailed distribution of nearby sources, as discussed in the science section, but there remains substantial uncertainty in the measured flux at lower energies. Under the assumption that the electron spectrum measured by this group previously using the HEAT instrument in the energy range 5-100 GeV can be extrapolated into the multi-TeV range, and given the energy-dependent effective area shown in Figure 4-2, we would observe roughly 250 electrons with energy greater than 2 TeV in a 100 day balloon flight. The distribution of these events with energy is shown in Table 4-1. Primary Electron Energy (TeV) 2-5 5-10 10-20 20-50 >50 # Electrons Seen in a 100 day ULDB Flight 116 56 31 21 20