CLASS #9: NONZERO SUM-NESS By the End of this Lecture you will be able to: 1. Define a collective action problem in terms of Taylor’s two conditions 2. Differentiate between at least three different types of collective action problems using the two conditions 3. Discuss Wright’s concept of non-zero-sum-ness as well as relate this concept to the potential production surplus 4. Show how a political entrepreneur can solve a prisoner’s dilemma type collective action problem 5. Discuss Wright’s central thesis in terms of the tools presented in the lecture I. Collective Action Problem (What is a collective action problem) A. Definition 1. When individuals desire public goods from which they cannot be feasibly excluded and when each individual's contribution to the production process yields a directly consequential benefit that is less than the cost involved, rational individuals will have a strong incentive to take a free ride. a. Public Goods (Jointly Supplied) b. Non Feasible Exclusion c. Cost of Cooperation > Directly consequential benefit 2. Free Ride--make full use of the good without paying and/or contributing to its production B. Taylor’s two Conditions 1. Neither player finds it profitable to provide the good by self (DD>CD) 2. The value of the good provided by the other player alone exceeds the value of the public good provided by joint cooperation less the costs of cooperation (DC > CC) C. Relaxing the Conditions 1. At least one player finds it profitable to provide the good by themselves (CD>DD) 2. The value to at least one player alone does not exceed the value of the total amount of the public good provided by joint cooperation less the costs of cooperation (CC>DC) D. Three CAP Games 1. Prisoner’s Dilemma (conditions 1 and 2) 2. Chicken (relax condition 1) 3. Stag Hunt (relax condition 2) 4. What would a game look like that relaxes both conditions 1 and 2 at the same time? Row Player Cooperate Defect Row Player Cooperate Defect Column Player Cooperate Defect S,S W,B B,W T,T Column Player Cooperate Defect S,S T,B B,T W,W Row Player Cooperate Defect Row Player Cooperate Defect Column Player Cooperate Defect B,B W,S S,W T,T Column Player Cooperate Defect T,T W,S S,W B,B II. Non Zero Sum-ness A. Why is Wright attached to the terminology of game theory? B. There is no substitute for game theory as a way to look at the history of our species C. Cooperation and nonzero sum are not synonyms 1. A nonzero sum relationship is not a relationship in which cooperation necessarily takes place 2. It is a relationship, which if cooperation did take place, it would benefit all parties 3. Whether cooperation does take place and the parties realize the positive sums is an empirical question D. Nonzero sum-ness is about potential—it can be tapped or not 1. To tap the potential is to realize positive sums that were not there before 2. It creates more potential 3. Sometimes in nonzero sum situations, the object of the game is to avoid negative sums E. Game theory can be used – in conjunction with computer simulation – to model evolutionary processes 1. Axelrod’s book is the most prominent and uses the prisoner’s dilemma 2. Wright says use of PD is problematic a. The object of a PD game is to get the lowest score b. To not cooperate is to tell the truth; while to cooperate is not tell the truth F. Prisoner’s Dilemma – and all nonzero sum games – have the following important features 1. Communication is important (at least potentially so) 2. Trust is important—you will follow through on your commitments G. Key things to look for 1. Nonzero sum-ness in principle as potential 2. Ways to achieve potential 3. Role of communication and trust III. Potential Production Surplus A. Definition – The gains that can be realized if there were cooperation 1. Difference between Nash equilibrium outcome and CC a. Prisoner’s Dilemma – S > T – there is a potential surplus b. Stag Hunt – S < B – there is a potential surplus c. Chicken – S < B – there is no potential surplus; however SW – there is a potential surplus d. Deadlock – T < B – there is no potential surplus B. Focus on games that have a positive potential surplus IV. Political Entrepreneur A. If groups are to achieve collective goods, they are going to have to overcome free rider problem and resulting suboptimality. B. A political entrepreneur is an individual who invests his own time or other resources to coordinate and combine other factors of production to supply collective goods. C. Differences in preferences among collective good recipients lead to attempts to supply substitute collective goods. D. Prisoner’s Dilemma Example: 1. Potential Production Surplus a. Exists whenever S > T so that {S-T} > 0 b. Assume each individual is willing to contribute a portion of the potential surplus in return for assurance that good will be produced c. Total surplus available = {S-T} 2. Solving the CAP a. PE agrees to provide collective good in return for payment b. Payment takes the form of "taxes" c. Is it rational to pay in the following matrix? Player #2 Player #1 Pay PE Pay PE Do Not Pay Do Not Pay B-tax,B-tax B-tax,B B,B-tax B,B Prisoner’s Dilemma with Taxes 3. Need for Sanctions a. Must be separate from the provision of good b. must be applied individually c. Sanction = EV[d*(Tax+Penalty)] (where d = probability of detection) d. Convergence as long as a. is sufficiently high b. Penalty is sufficiently large Player #2 Player #1 Pay PE Pay PE Do Not Pay B-tax,B-tax B-sanction, B-tax Do Not Pay B-tax, B-sanction B-sanction, B-sanction Prisoner’s Dilemma with Taxes and Sanctions E. Stag Example: 1. Potential Production Surplus a. Exists whenever S > T so that {S-T} > 0 b. Assume each individual is willing to contribute a portion of the potential surplus in return for assurance that good will be produced c. Total surplus available = {S-T} 2. Solving the CAP a. PE agrees to provide collective good in return for payment b. Payment takes the form of "taxes" c. Is it rational to pay in the following matrix? V. Wolf’s Dilemma Twenty people sit, each in a cubicle, with a finger on a button Each person will get $1,000 after ten minutes, unless someone pushes the button, in which case the person who pushes the button will get $100 and everybody else will get nothing If you are clever you do not push the button and get $1,000 But if you are very clever, you see that there is a tiny chance that somebody will be stupid enough to push hi or her button In that case you are better off pushing yours first If you are very, very clever you see this and push your button Collective disaster Cooperation is a frequent feature of human society Trust is the very foundation of social and economic life Is it irrational? Do we have to override our instincts to be nice to each other? Does crime pay? Are people only honest when it pays them to be so? VI. Wright’s Central Thesis “My contention is that, if we want to see what drives the direction of both human history and organic evolution, we should apply the perspective of game theory systematically. Interaction among individual genes, or cells, or animals, among interest groups, or nations, or corporations, can be viewed through the lens of game theory. What follows is a survey of human history, and of organic history, with those lenses in place. My hope is to illuminate a kind of force – a non-zerosum dynamic – that has crucially shaped the unfolding of life on earth so far.” “As history progresses, human beings find themselves playing non-zero-sum games with more and more other human beings. Interdependence expands, and social complexity grows in scope and depth.” What is the role of government in this dynamic? Can it get started without the “hidden hand” of government?