Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions Homework #7 (Week 9): Chapter 6, Exercises 2, 4, 6, 10, 14, 16, 18 & 22. Definition: “A probability distribution lists, in some form, all the possible outcomes of an “experiment” and the probability associated with each one.” Discrete Random Variable Discrete Random Variable: If a variable X can only assume particular values with certain probabilities, it is referred to as a discrete random variable. Example: Let a pair of fair dice be tossed and let X = the sum of the two numbers obtained. Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable: If a variable X can assume a discrete set of values X1, X2, ... Xk with respective probabilities p1, p2, ... pk where p1 + ... + pk = 1, we say that a discrete probability distribution for X has been defined. Example: Let a pair of fair dice be tossed and let X = the sum of the two numbers obtained. X 1 2 3 4 p(X) 0 1/36 2/36 3/36 X 5 6 7 8 p(X) 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 X 9 10 11 12 p(X) 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36 Population Mean of a Discrete Random Variable The Population Mean () of the Random Variable X is also known as the Expected Value (E(X)) of the Random Variable X. = E(X) = X1.p1 + X2.p2. + ... + Xk.pk = x.P(x) Example: Toss of a Fair Die E(X) = = x.P(x) = 1.(1/6) + 2.(1/6) + 3.(1/6) + 4.(1/6) + 5.(1/6) + 6.(1/6) = 3.5 (interpretation?) Aside: E(f(X)) = f(x).P(x) E(X2) = x2.P(x) = 1.(1/6) + 4.(1/6) + 9.(1/6) + 16.(1/6) + 25.(1/6) + 36.(1/6) = (91/6) = 15.17 E(X3) = x3.P(x) = ? E(X2) 2 in general [E(X)]2 = 2 Population Variance of a Discrete Random Variable Var (X) = 2 [Remember 2 = ((xi - )2)/n] Example: Toss of a Fair Die (1-3.5)2+(2-3.5)2+(3-3.5)2+(4-3.5)2+(5-3.5)2+(6-3.5)2 6 = 2.92 = 2 Population Standard Deviation = = 1.71 (interpretation?) Highest Deviation = 2.5 (= 3.5 – 1 = 6 - 3.5) Lowest Deviation = .5 (= 3.5 – 3 = 4 – 3.5) Aside: Population Variance = Var (X) = 2 = E(X - )2 2 = E(X - )2 = (x-)2.P(x) Short Cut for Calculating Var(X) E(X-)2 = E(X2-2.X.+2) = E(X2) - E(2.X.) + E(2) = E(X2) - 2..E(X) + 2 = E(X2) - 2.. + 2 = E(X2) - 2.2 + 2 = E(X2) - 2 Var (X) = E(X2) - 2 Example: Toss of a Fair Die E(X) = = 3.5 E(X2) = 91/6 = 15.17 (see earlier and/or check) 2 = (3.5)2 = 12.25 Var (X) = E(X2)-2 = 15.17 - 12.25 = 2.92 (as expected) Linear Combination of a Random Variable Random Variable: X E(X) = Var (X) = 2 Constants: A and B Define: W = A.X + B (i.e. W is a linear function of X) E(W)? E(W) = E(A.X + B) = E(A.X) + E(B) = A.E(X) + B Var (W)? Var (W) = E[W – E(W)]2 = E[A.X + B - E(A.X + B)]2 = E[A.X + B - E(A.X) - E(B)]2 = E[A.X + B - A.E(X) - B]2 = E[A.X - A.E(X)]2 = A2.E[X - E(X)]2 = A2.Var (X) {Stan Dev (W) = (Var (W))½ = A.Stan Dev (X)} Example: Let W = (X - )/ where E(X) = and Var (X) = 2 i.e. X ~ (,2) [ “~” means “is distributed”] W = (X - )/ = X/ - / i.e. W = A.X + B where A = 1/ and B = - / E(W) = A.E(X) + B = (1/).() - / = 0 Var (W) = A2.Var (X) = (1/)2.2 = 1 W ~ (0, 1) Note: W is called the standardised random variable The Binomial Distribution n: number of trials x: number of “successes” within n trials : probability of “success” in any individual trial (1-): probability of “failure” in any individual trial P(x) = nCx x (1-)n-x Claims: 1. E(x) = n (intuitive) 2. Var(x) = n(1-) (not so intuitive) “Proof” Let xi = number of “successes” within any individual trial xi = 1 with probability xi = 0 with probability (1-) E(xi) = .1 + (1-).0 = (as expected) Aside: E(xi2) = .12 + (1-).02 = Var(xi) = E[xi - E(xi)]2 = E[xi - ]2 = E[xi2 - 2xi + 2] = E[xi2] – E[2xi] + E[2] = E[xi2] – 2E[xi] + 2 = E[xi2] – 2 + 2 = E[xi2] – 2 = – 2 = (1 - ) x = number of “successes” within n (statistically independent) trials x = x 1 + x2 + … + x i + … + x n 1. E(x) = E(x1) + E(x2) + … + E(xi) + … + E(xn) = n 2. Var(x) = Var(x1) + Var(x2) + … + Var(xi) + … + Var(xn) = n(1 - )