Economic versus physical input measures in the analysis of technical efficiency in fisheries1 Sean Pascoe1, Parastoo Hassaszahed1, Jesper Anderson2 and Knud Korsbrekke3 1. CEMARE, University of Portsmouth, UK; 2. SJFI, Denmark; 3. Institute for Marine Research, Norway. Abstract The measurement of technical efficiency requires the estimation of an appropriate production frontier. This is based on a set of inputs that are assumed to influence the level of output. Deviations from this frontier production function are separated into random variation and inefficiency. However, mis-specification of the production function through the use of inappropriate input measures may result in a bias in the measures of inefficiency. In fisheries, production is generally assumed to be a function of stock size, fishing time and the level of physical inputs employed. Defining the appropriate levels of physical inputs, however, is not straightforward, and several alternative measures are available. While economic measures of capital are more intuitively appealing, physical measures are generally readily available and hence less costly to collect. In this study, technical efficiency is measured for three fleet segments operating in the North Sea using three different gear types. The effects of using different measures of capital in the production frontier on the efficiency estimates are examined. Paper presented at the XII Conference of the European Association of Fisheries Economists, Salerno, Italy, 18-20 April 2001. 1 The study was undertaken as part of two EU funded projects: "On the applicability of economic indicators to improve the understanding of the relationship between Fishing Effort and Mortality. Examples from the Flatand Roundfish Fisheries of the North Sea" (DGXIV 98/027) and “Technical efficiency in EU fisheries: implications for monitoring and management through effort controls” (QLK5-CT1999-01295) Introduction An understanding of the relationship between the quantity of inputs employed in fishing and the resultant catch is an essential pre-condition for effective management, especially where inputs are controlled. While most fisheries in the EU are managed though aggregate output controls, ensuring that the fleet catching capacity is in line with the harvest limits has become an important feature of the Structural Policy of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). In most EU countries, fleet reduction has been required through the Multi-Annual Guidance Programme in order to reducing the overall harvesting capacity of the fleet. However, variations in efficiency between boats can greatly affect the effectiveness of such policies, as removing inefficient vessels will have proportionally less of an impact on the overall harvesting capacity of the fleet (Pascoe and Coglan, 2000). Measurement of efficiency in fisheries is important for several reasons, particularly when input controls are in place. As well as the obvious impact on the harvesting capacity, increases in efficiency over time could result in biased effort measures and hence affect stock assessments. Also, where effort controls are in place, changes in efficiency over time need to be measured in order to determine if the controls need to be adjusted. The measurement of efficiency of individual firms requires some benchmark against which their performance can be assessed. A common approach has been to estimate a production frontier, which represents the relationship between the maximum potential output for a given set of inputs. The individual’s output is compared to the frontier level of output given the level of inputs employed, and the resultant difference represents the level of inefficiency of the firm. The estimation of stochastic production frontiers allows also for the effects of random variation in output to be separated from inefficiency. The econometric estimation of technical inefficiency has been applied extensively to a wide range of industries, although relatively few attempts to measure technical efficiency in fisheries have been undertaken (for examples, see Kirkley, Squires and Strand, 1995, 1998; Campbell and Hand, 1998; Coglan, Pascoe and Harris, 1999; Sharma and Leung, 1999; Squires and Kirkley, 1999; Grafton, Squires and Fox, 2000; Pascoe, Andersen and de Wilde, 2001). These studies have used a range of different input measures, although the most common input measures have involved some measures of capital, labour and stock size. In many fisheries, detailed information on the level of capital and labour employed in fishing is limited, and any analysis of fisheries production and efficiency will need to be based on physical inputs. Further, the measurement of the economic inputs (capital and labour) are also subject to problems that may make their use in productivity analysis less than desirable. The 1 use of inappropriate measures of the input use may result in mis-specification problems in the model, consequently affecting the measures of efficiency. In this paper, the effect of different input measures on efficiency estimates is examined through three different types of fisheries – Norwegian trawlers, Danish seiners and Danish gillnetters. Problems in the estimation of the economic inputs are also examined. Implications for future studies of efficiency in fisheries are then drawn from the results of the analyses. Production functions and frontiers in fisheries A production function defines the relationship between the level of inputs and the resultant level of outputs. It is estimated from observed outputs and input usage and indicates the average level of outputs for a given level of inputs (Schmidt, 1986). A number of studies have estimated the relative contribution of the factors of production through estimating production functions at either the individual boat level or total fishery level. These include Cobb-Douglas production functions (Hannesson, 1983), CES production functions (Campbell and Lindner, 1990), and translog production functions (Squires, 1987; Pascoe and Robinson, 1998). An implicit assumption of production functions is that there are no differences in efficiency in the use of the inputs between firms. In contrast, the production frontier indicates the maximum potential output for a given set of inputs. From the production frontier, it is possible to measure the relative efficiency of certain groups or set of practices from the relationship between observed production and some ideal or potential production (Greene, 1993). A general stochastic production frontier model can be given by: ln q j f (ln x) v j u j (1) where qj is the output produced by firm j, x is a vector of factor inputs, vj is the stochastic error term and uj is the estimate of the technical inefficiency of firm j. Both vj and uj are assumed to be independently and identically distributed (iid) with variance v2 and u2 respectively. The deterministic part of the frontier (i.e. f(ln x)) represents the effects of changes in input levels on the level of output. In all of the previous studies of efficiency, the key inputs used have included a measure of capital, capital utilisation, and stock, while some studies have also included a measure of labour utilisation in the production function (e.g. Kirkley, Squires and Strand, 1995, 1998; Sharma and Leung, 1999). This is broadly in keeping with traditional 2 economic production theory, where output is assumed to be a function of land (i.e. stock), labour and capital. The level of capital employed in the fishery has been measured in terms of the monetary investment level (e.g. Kirkley, Squires and Strand, 1995, 1998) or in terms of physical inputs such as boat size and engine power (e.g. Coglan, Pascoe and Harris, 1999). Pascoe, Andersen and de Wilde (2001) estimated capital inputs in monetary terms based on the combination of boat size and engine power, with a differing relationship for small and large boats. Capital utilisation has been incorporated into the analyses in terms of either days fished or fuel use. The use of economic measures of capital rather than physical inputs has been preferred in the literature as they are assumed to capture the full range of inputs employed (e.g. onboard technology, differences in materials used in the boat construction etc). In contrast, physical measures, such as boat size and engine power, only capture some of the inputs employed, with potential differences in the use of inputs not included in the production function potentially affecting the relative measures of efficiency. That is, the measure of inefficiency reflects differences in the level of inputs used as well as differences in the use of these inputs by the skipper. The stochastic part of the frontier, v j u j , represents deviations away from the frontier that are due to either random variation (vj) or inefficiency. The term ui,t represents technical inefficiency. When ui,t = 0, the i-th firm at time t lies on the stochastic frontier, and hence can be considered technically efficient at time t. If ui,t > 0, the production lies below the frontier and hence the firm is inefficient. The measure of technical efficiency of the firm when working with logged variables is given by TEi,t e ui ,t (2) where TEi,t is the relative technical efficiency of the firm i in period t. In order to separate the stochastic and inefficiency effects in the model, a distributional assumption has to be made for uj (Bauer, 1990). A range of distributional assumptions have been proposed: an exponential distribution such that uj ~ exp() (Meeusen and van der Broeck, 1977); a normal distribution truncated at zero (i.e. uj ~ |N(j , u2)|) (Aigner, Lovell and Schmidt, 1977); a half-normal distribution truncated at zero i.e. uj ~ |N(0, u2)| (Jondrow et al., 1982) a two-parameter Gamma/normal distribution (Greene 1990), the density function given by f (u ) u um exp for m>-1 (Kumbhaker and Lovell, 2000); and a (m 1) um1 u 3 truncated normal distribution around a deterministic mean (i.e. uit ~ |N(mit,u2)|), where mit is a function of particular characteristics of the firm (Battese and Coelli, 1995). There are no a priori reasons for choosing one distributional form over the other, and all have advantages and disadvantages (Coelli, Rao and Battese, 1998). Most of the above studies of fisheries have tended to adopt the Battese and Coelli (1995) approach, where inefficiency is explicitly modelled as a function of the characteristics of the vessels. However, the objective of these studies has been to examine the effects of particular factors on the efficiency of fishing vessels, rather than just to measure the distribution of efficiency. Difficulties in the use of economic and physical inputs As noted above, most studies of production and efficiency in fisheries have used some valuebased measure of capital (e.g. investment). In addition, some studies have included labour and fuel use in the production function. While these measures have theoretical advantages, including conformity with general economic production theory, the measurement of the inputs is subject to considerable problems. In addition, economic information is generally not routinely collected, and sample surveys of fisheries are, in many countries, limited in their scope and their time series. As a result, information on the measures is generally only available for a small subset of the fleet. Economic measures of capital are also subject to measurement errors. In many cases, estimates of capital values are accountancy based rather than economic based. In contrast, physical input measures are generally more robust (in terms of measurement), and are often more readily available. However, as noted above, these measures do not include all inputs employed in fishing. In particular, information on onboard technology, which presumably is included in the estimate of capital value, is generally not readily available nor easy to incorporate into a production function. The key difficulties with particular input measures (both economic and physical) are briefly outlined below. Capital value Estimates of capital values of fishing vessels are generally derived from economic surveys of fisheries. These differ in their approach to the measurement and depreciation of capital. In theory, the capital value should represent the productive capacity of the investment, such that the use of more productive capital inputs are associated with higher capital values. Consequently, capital value should provide a good indicator of the total level of capital inputs employed in the fishery. In practise, the valuation of the capital inputs used in fishing is not related to their productive use. In many cases, capital value is estimated on the basis of the level of key physical inputs 4 employed rather than all inputs. For example, the capital measures used by Pascoe, Andersen and de Wilde (2001) were derived from the gross registered tonnage and engine power of the vessel based on the valuation method proposed by Davidse et al (1993). Similar approaches to the estimation of capital value are employed in most economic analyses of European fisheries (see Concerted Action, 2000), as obtaining information on all capital inputs employed in fishing is generally impractical. While these measures may be appropriate for providing an indication of trends in capital input use, they are not necessarily ideal for productivity and efficiency analyses. In many studies, the capital value of the vessels have been estimated on the basis of book values, where the (estimated) replacement values are depreciated by a given depreciation rate. In many economic reports (e.g. Concerted Action, 2000; Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics, 1998), capital value is depreciated at a common rate for all activities. Pascoe, Robinson and Coglan (1996) demonstrated that economic depreciation (i.e. the actual loss in value of the vessels over time) was related to the level of repairs and maintenance, and hence may vary between boats within a fleet segment and between fleet segments. While the vintage of the boat may result in differences in efficiency (i.e. due to new technologies incorporated into the more recent vessel design and construction), there is generally no reason to presume that a boat would become less efficient as it aged provided it underwent regular maintenance. Hence, the depreciated capital values derived in many economic surveys have little relationship to the productive capacity of the vessel. Labour A number of econometric models of fisheries production function and frontiers include crew numbers as a variable input (e.g. Squires, 1987; Kirkley, Squires and Strand, 1995, 1998), on the basis that bigger crews result in greater output levels. While this may be true for some fisheries, particularly those involving pole and lines, the relevance of crew as an input into the production process in all fisheries is questionable. For most fisheries, crew numbers are more a consequence rather than cause of production. Vessels that expect to have large catches need large crews to handle the catch once caught. For trawl vessels, some minimum number of crew are required to operate the boat and winch equipment for any production to occur. Adding crew above this minimum is not likely to result in additional production from the vessel. However, it could be argued that more crew enable the catch to be removed and processed more quickly, allowing more trawls to take place over a given period of time (e.g. a day or trip). In practice, crew numbers are highly correlated with boat size (i.e. bigger boats have more crew), and hence the contribution of crew to the production process is often captured in the 5 boat size measure (either capital value or physical measure). Further, in most fisheries information on the number of crew employed is generally collected annually, while actual crew use could vary from month to month (e.g. based on expected variation in catch levels due to seasonal factors). In such a case, the addition of a constant measure of crew does not capture the labour input, and as the effects are largely captured in the boat size variable, does not contribute substantially to the production function. Fuel Fuel use has been used in some studies to represent the capital utilisation rate (e.g. Squires, 1987). A feature of fuel use is that it also captures some of the boat characteristics, so can be used as a measure of both physical and variable inputs (e.g. larger boats with larger engines use more fuel per day). This has both advantages and disadvantages. Including both fuel use and boat size measures may result in substantial multicollinearity problems. While this may not be problematic for efficiency estimation, the corresponding elasticity estimates would be unreliable. If the correlation between fuel use and boat size is substantially high, then the problem of multicollinearity may become excessive and the models unable to solve. In contrast, using a measure of fuel use to represent both fixed and variable inputs involves the implicit assumption of perfect substitution between the inputs. That is, if a given level of fuel use results in a given output, then this could be achieved by either a small boat fishing for a long period or a large boat fishing for a short period. In practice, information on the quantity of fuel used is rarely collected in economic surveys. Instead, information on fuel costs is more generally collected. While this is highly correlated to fuel use, variations in fuel price between areas may result in the measure of fuel costs being inconsistent between vessels. As a result, differences in prices may be interpreted as differences in input usage and, consequently, inefficiency. Physical measures Physical measures of fixed inputs generally include measures of boat size (e.g. GRT, length, width, etc) and engine power (in kW or horsepower). These have been used as proxy measures of the level of capital invested in the fishery (e.g. Pascoe and Robinson, 1998; Coglan, Pascoe and Harris, 1998). Physical measures of capital utilisation generally involves some measure of time fished, such as days, hours or trips. A key advantage of the measures is that they are generally readily available for a large proportion of the fleet. Most countries record the physical characteristics of the vessels in boat registers, while many countries required fishers to complete logbooks of their fishing activity. As a result, the proportion of the fleet that is able to be studied is generally substantially larger than that for which economic data are available. 6 The key disadvantages of the measures are that they generally do not encompass all inputs. Information on differences in onboard technologies, for example, is often not available. These differences will be captured in the inefficiency component of the model. Hence, part of the apparent inefficiency will be measurement error in the deterministic component of the production frontier. Effects of different input measures on technical efficiency From the above, it is apparent that all potential input measures are subject to some problems. While there are potential benefits in using economic measures of capital and capital utilisation, obtaining appropriate measures is difficult and time consuming, especially if a regular economic survey program is not undertaken. In contrast, physical data, while potentially less accurate, has the advantage that is it readily available. The effect of using different input data on efficiency estimates was examined for a number of different fleet segments operating in the North Sea. Economic and physical input data were obtained for the Danish seine and gillnet fleet as well as the Norwegian trawler fleet. Danish data The Danish economic analysis of technical efficiency is based on a data set that is drawn from the Danish Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Economics' (SJFI) account database for the years 1995-98 inclusive. This database forms the basis of the Danish Account Statistics for Fishery, which covers all types of commercial fisheries in Denmark. For the purposes of this study, only netters and seiners that fished for consumption species in the North Sea and/or Skagerrak were included. Further, only boats that fished for at least 3 of the 4 years were included in the analysis. This resulted in observations for 26 netters and 13 seiners being usable for the analysis. Measures of the biomass of key species were obtained from the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS), and a stock index (expressed in ‘value’ terms) was derived based on revenue shares of each species. A range of different input measures – both economic and physical – were available (Tables 1 and 2). All economic input values were inflated to 1998 values using the retail price index. A range of different capital value measures were available, including estimates of the value of the engine and hull and the total depreciated value of all capital inputs (including electronics and fishing gear). As there is no a priori reason to assume that efficiency would decrease as boats aged, a constant measure of capital (based on the 1995 value for each boat) was also derived. While this value still contains an element of depreciation, this reflects the vintage of the vessel. Hence, the constant capital value is a composite measure of the level and vintage of capital employed. 7 Table 1. Correlation between output (real revenue) and potential inputs for Danish Seiners Output Output (real value) Gross Tonnage (GT) Horsepower (HP) Length Hull and engine capital Total Capital - accounts Capital - constant Days Fuel cost Crew size 1.00 0.83 0.64 0.79 0.80 0.83 0.84 0.34 0.75 0.62 Physical fixed inputs GT HP 1.00 0.71 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.17 0.71 0.56 1.00 0.74 0.78 0.73 0.74 0.13 0.74 0.51 Length 1.00 0.88 0.84 0.85 0.18 0.70 0.57 Capital value Hull and Total engine accounts 1.00 0.91 0.92 0.17 0.76 0.60 1.00 0.99 0.36 0.80 0.53 Total (constant) 1.00 0.35 0.78 0.53 Variable inputs Days Fuel cost 1.00 0.40 -0.07 1.00 0.58 Crew size 1.00 Table 2. Correlation between output (real revenue) and potential inputs for Danish Gillnetters Output Output (real value) Gross Tonnage (GT) Horsepower (HP) Length Hull and engine capital Total Capital - accounts Capital - constant Days Fuel cost Crew size 1.00 0.68 0.73 0.79 0.75 0.82 0.82 0.65 0.87 0.84 Physical fixed inputs GT HP 1.00 0.90 0.93 0.79 0.84 0.85 0.50 0.81 0.65 1.00 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.44 0.82 0.66 Length 1.00 0.82 0.88 0.88 0.60 0.84 0.81 8 Capital value Hull and Total engine accounts 1.00 0.92 0.90 0.40 0.77 0.68 1.00 0.99 0.54 0.84 0.77 Total (constant) 1.00 0.55 0.85 0.76 Variable inputs Days Fuel cost 1.00 0.59 0.60 1.00 0.71 Crew size 1.00 Correlation between these measures and output (expressed as total value of landings inflated to 1998 values using a Fisher price index) suggest that most of the fixed inputs are highly correlated with each other and roughly equally correlated with the output measure. As would be expected, fuel costs are also highly correlated with both the output measure and the measures of the fixed inputs (both physical and economic). Norwegian data The Norwegian data were provided by the Norwegian Institute for Marine Research, covering the years 1994-98 inclusive. Again, only boats that operated for at least 3 years were included in the analysis, resulting in 46 boats being used to estimate the average efficiency. All economic variables were inflated to 1998 values using the retail price index. A stock index was derived from the geometric mean of value per unit of effort (standardised using horsepower) of boats that fished in all five years. While stock data were available in individual species, information on revenue shares were not available to allow the construction of a divisia-type index. Relatively fewer potential inputs were available for the Norwegian trawlers than for the Danish vessels (Table 3). As with the Danish vessels, the fixed inputs were highly correlated with each other and the output measure (real revenue). Fuel costs were again also highly correlated with both the output measure and the fixed inputs. Table 3. Correlation between output (real revenue) and potential inputs for Norwegian trawlers Real revenue Horsepower (HP) Book value Constant value Fuel costs Days Real revenue HP 1.00 0.88 0.70 0.71 0.79 0.41 1.00 0.83 0.84 0.82 0.31 Capital value Book value Constant value 1.00 0.98 0.66 0.15 1.00 0.64 0.17 Variable inputs Fuel costs Days 1.00 0.43 1.00 Model specification The production frontier model for vessels operating in the three fisheries was specified as a translog production function2. Three forms of the model were used, depending on the inputs used. When capital value and days fished (capital utilisation) were used, the model was given by 2 The appropriateness of the translog functional form of the model was tested against a CobbDouglas specification, as seen in the results section. 9 ln Vi ,t 0 D ln Di ,t S ln S t C ln Ci ,t D , D (ln Di ,t ) 2 S , S (ln S t ) 2 C ,C (ln Ci ,t ) 2 D , S ln Di ,t ln S t D ,C ln Di ,t ln Ci ,t C , S ln Ci ,t ln S t (3) v i ,t u i , t where Vi,t is the output index of fisher i (expressed in terms of value of landings deflated using a Fisher price index) in time t, Di,t are the measure of capital utilisation (e.g. number of days fished by fisher i in time t), St is the composite stock index in time t, and Ci,t is the level of the capital employed by fisher i in time t (expressed in either value terms or as a function of the physical characteristics of the vessel), vi,t is the random variation and ui,t is the level of inefficiency of fisher i in year t. When boat size (gross tonnage) and engine power (horsepower) were used, the functional form of the model was ln Vi ,t 0 D ln Di ,t S ln S t G ln GTi H ln HPi D , D (ln Di ,t ) 2 S , S (ln S t ) 2 G ,G (ln GTi ) 2 H , H (ln HPi ) 2 D , S ln Di ,t ln S t D ,G ln Di ,t ln GTi D , H ln Di ,t ln HPi (4) G , S ln GTi ln S t G , H ln GTi ln HPt H , S ln HPi ln S t v i ,t u i ,t where GTi and HPi are the gross tonnage and horsepower of boat i respectively. For the Norwegian trawlers, information was only available on horsepower. When fuel was used as the key input, the model was specified as ln Vi ,t 0 F ln Fi ,t S ln St F , F (ln Fi ,t ) 2 F ,S ln Fi ,t ln St vi ,t ui ,t (5) where Fi,t is the cost of fuel used by fisher i in time t. Fuel use is assumed to encompase both features relating to the size of the vessel (e.g. boat size and engine power) as well as capital utilisation (e.g. days fished). Value was used as the dependent variable rather than quantity as there was not sufficient information on the catch composition of the Norwegian vessels to construct a quantity based measure. As a consequence, the resultant efficiency measures include a mix of both technical as well as allocative efficiency (i.e. how well the fishers both catch fish and catch the most valuable combination of fish). As the ability of fishers to target individual species is limited, it 10 is most likely that allocative efficiency does not vary significantly between fishers such that the efficiency measures largely reflect differences in technical efficiency. Inefficiency was modelled as a 'random effect' (Coelli, Rao and Battese 1998). This involves imposing a range of different distributional assumptions on the inefficiency term, and determining which assumption is most appropriate through econometric testing of the results. Insufficient information for the Norwegian fleet was available to estimate efficiency as a function of boat characteristics, while the short time series for the Danish fleet and relatively small sample size would have made an inefficiency model fairly unreliable. The key distributional assumptions tested was a normal distribution truncated at zero (i.e. uj ~ |N(i , u2)|) (Aigner, Lovell and Schmidt, 1977) and a half-normal distribution truncated at zero i.e. uj ~ |N(0, u2)| (Jondrow et al. 1982). The model was also tested for time variant technical efficiency. The approach adopted, proposed by Battese and Coelli (1992), assumes that u j ,t u j e (t T ) (6) where uj are assumed to be iid truncations at zero of the normal distribution N(j, 2). If >0, the inefficiency term, uj,t, is always decreasing with time, whereas <0 implies that uj,t is always increasing with time. One of the main problems of this model is that technical efficiencies are forced to be a monotonous function of time. Results As noted above, several variants of the production frontier were estimated using different input measures for each fleet segment. These involved a measure of physical inputs (gross tonnage and horsepower for the Danish boats and only horsepower for the Norwegian trawlers); a measure of capital value (taken as the measure of total capital in the first year of the data held constant over the period of the data); and the use of fuel costs. Days fished was used as the measure of capital utilisation for the first two instances, whereas fuel cost was assumed to represent both fixed inputs (i.e. boat size and engine power) as well as variable inputs (i.e. days fished). All models also included a measure of stock size. The models were estimated using FRONTIER 4.1 (Coelli, 1996). As well as providing estimates of the coefficients of the production function (not presented in this paper), the output from the analyses included estimates of , and , the latter representing the proportion of variation in the residuals (i.e. j ,t v j ,t u j ,t ) explained by inefficiency, such that u2 / u2 v2 . 11 Tests on the structural form A number of tests were conducted on the structural form of the model by incorporating restrictions on parameters. This was to determine the most appropriate functional form of the model and inefficiency distribution, in order that the most appropriate measures of efficiency were produced for comparison. The restrictions were tested using the likelihood ratio (LR) test, where the test statistic is given by LR 2ln L( H o ) ln L( H 1 ), where ln[L(H0)] and ln[L(H1)] are the values of the likelihood function under the null and alternative hypothesis respectively. This has a 2 distribution, with the degrees of freedom given by the number of restrictions imposed. The key tests were on the functional form of the production function (i.e. translog vs CobbDouglas), the existence of time varying efficiency and the appropriate distribution of inefficiency (half normal vs trunctated normal). A further standard test is the test for the existence of a frontier. This is equivalent to testing that =0 (i.e. that inefficiency effects do not exist). As the alternative hypothesis is that >0 (since 01), a one-sided test is required and the standard 2 values are not appropriate. Kodde and Palm (1986) developed a series of critical values based on a mixture of 2 distributions that are appropriate for testing this restriction. The results of these tests are presented in Tables 4-7 below. Table 4. Tests of Translog vs Cobb-Douglas production function Log-likelihood value Cobb-Douglas Translog Likelihood Ratio test χ2 Degrees of freedom Probabilty (%) Accept/ reject Norwegian Trawlers HP 60.466 70.970 21.008 6 0.18 reject capital 24.810 33.836 18.050 6 0.61 reject fuel Danish Seiners 10.819 26.781 31.924 3 0.00 reject GT and HP 33.158 - - - - accept capital 34.188 39.113 9.851 6 13.10 accept fuel Danish Gillnetters 28.429 29.466 2.074 3 55.73 accept GT and HP 24.328 33.215 17.773 6 0.68 reject capital 30.072 37.816 15.488 6 1.68 reject fuel 21.909 25.402 6.985 3 7.24 accept With the exception of the Danish Seiners, the translog production function was considered the most appropriate functional form (Table 4). The small sample size and larger number (of highly correlated) explanatory variables when using physical inputs resulted in an inability to estimate the translog for the Danish Seiners using these variables. However, a Cobb-Douglas 12 production function could not be rejected for the seiners when using the other inputs, so it is expected that this is the most appropriate functional form of the production function. Time invariant efficiency (i.e. =0) was found to be consistently accepted for the trawlers and gillnetters with all inputs, and rejected for all inputs for the seiners (Table 5). Given the length of the time series, time varying efficiency was not expected. For the seiners, efficiency was found to be increasing at an average rate of between 9 per cent (based on capital values) and 22 per cent a year (based on fuel costs). This latter figure appears unrealistic, and may be an artefact of fuel price changes (i.e. if fuel prices fell, then the apparent resource use would have decreased per unit of output). Table 5. Tests of time invariant efficiency Log-likelihood value =0 0 Likelihood Ratio test χ2 Degrees of freedom Probabilty (%) Accept/ reject Norwegian Trawlers (TL) HP 70.257 70.970 1.427 1 23.22 accept capital 33.910 33.836 0.000 1 100.00 accept fuel Danish Seiners (CD) 26.772 26.781 0.018 1 89.35 accept GT and HP 31.031 33.158 4.254 1 3.92 reject capital 31.846 34.188 4.683 1 3.05 reject fuel Danish Gillnetters (TL) 24.521 28.429 7.816 1 0.52 reject GT and HP 32.570 33.215 1.290 1 26 accept capital 37.371 37.816 0.889 1 35 accept 25.144 25.402 0.516 1 fuel Note: TL - translog production function; CD - Cobb-Douglas production function 47 accept In most instances, a half-normal distribution was found to be appropriate, the exception being for the Norwegian trawlers when only horsepower was considered as a fixed input (Table 6). As there is no a priori reason to assume either distribution, nothing substantial can be concluded from these results. For consistency, a truncated normal distribution was imposed for all input-variants of the model for the Norwegian trawlers. The 'final' functional forms of the model and inefficiency distribution were tested for the existence of a frontier. This is effectively a test that inefficiency is zero for all observations, such that =0 (i.e. the proportion of total variation in the residuals due to inefficiency). In all cases, the assumption that =0 was rejected, indicating that a frontier (rather than just a production function), and inefficiency, existed. 13 Table 6. Tests of half-normal (=0) vs truncated normal (0) distribution Log-likelihood value =0 0 Likelihood Ratio test χ2 Degrees of freedom Probabilty (%) Accept/ reject HP 67.079 70.257 6.355 1 1.17 reject capital 33.432 33.910 0.955 1 32.85 accept fuel 26.586 26.772 0.372 1 54.17 accept Norwegian Trawlers (TL) (=0) Danish Seiners (CD) (0) GT and HP 32.143 33.158 2.030 1 15.42 accept capital 33.049 34.188 2.277 1 13.13 accept fuel 27.184 28.429 2.490 1 11.46 accept GT and HP 32.536 32.570 0.068 1 79.49 accept capital 37.225 37.371 0.294 1 58.80 accept 24.693 25.144 0.901 1 fuel Note: TL - translog production function; CD - Cobb-Douglas production function 34.25 accept Danish Gillnetters (TL) (=0) Table 7. One sided test of the existence of a frontier Log-likelihood value =0 0 Likelihood Ratio test Degrees of freedom Critical valuea Accept/ reject Norwegian Trawlers (TL) (=0)(0) 47.116 HP 70.257 46.283 2 5.138 reject capital -22.478 33.910 112.775 2 5.138 reject fuel 21.938 26.772 9.668 2 5.138 reject Danish Seiners (CD) (0)(=0) GT and HP 19.277 33.158 27.763 2 5.138 reject capital 17.834 34.188 32.709 2 5.138 reject fuel 16.653 28.429 23.553 2 5.138 reject Danish Gillnetters (TL) (=0)( =0) -22.174 GT and HP 32.536 109.419 1 2.706 reject 37.225 121.992 1 2.706 reject capital -23.771 -19.484 24.693 88.354 1 2.706 reject fuel Note: TL - translog production function; CD - Cobb-Douglas production function. a) Kodde and Palm (1986) critical values at 5% for a one sided test. Comparison of efficiency scores The efficiency scores from each of the 'final' models are illustrated in Figure 1. From this, it can be seen that the scores differed considerably depending on the inputs used in the analysis. Further, the correlation between the scores is relatively low in some instances (e.g. between fuel use and horsepower for the Norwegian trawlers, Table 8). 14 Figure 1. Comparison of estimated efficiency scores hp capital 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 13 10 7 4 fuel 1 TE score (a) Norwegian trawlers 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Observation (vessel) (b) Danish Seiners 1.00 TE score 0.90 GT and HP capital fuel 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 (c) Danish Gillnetters 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 ENG CAP FUEL 1 TE score Observation (vessel) Observation (vessel) Tests on the sample distributions of the scores indicate that in some instances, the use of some inputs can result in consistently higher (or lower) values of the efficiency score. For example, the use of capital as an input measure results in significantly lower estimates of technical efficiency than the use of either fuel or horsepower for the Norwegian trawlers (Table 8). In other cases, correlation between economic and physical measures of capital are both correlated, and exhibit no significant difference in the efficiency scores when compared pair wise (e.g. the Danish seiners and gillnetters). 15 Table 8. Correlation and pair wise t-test between efficiency scores Correlation Norwegian Trawlers 1) Capital and 2) Fuel 1) Capital and 2) HP 1) Fuel and 2) HP Danish Seiners 1) Capital and 2) GT and HP 1) Capital and 2) fuel 1) Fuel and 2) GT and HP Danish Gillnetters 1) GT and HP and 2) fuel 1) GT and HP and 2) capital 1) fuel and 2) capital Mean 1 Mean 2 t-test (1-2=0) Pr(T<=t) two-tail Accept/ reject (1) (1) 0.535 0.546 0.263 0.487 0.487 0.724 0.724 0.734 0.734 -11.008 -12.503 -0.456 0.000 0.000 0.651 rejected rejected accepted 0.597 0.813 0.802 0.738 0.738 0.758 0.719 0.758 0.719 -1.356 -2.182 -3.983 0.182 0.034 0.000 accepted rejected rejected 0.475 0.616 0.595 0.693 0.693 0.625 0.625 0.683 0.683 -1.713 -0.294 1.696 0.099 0.771 0.102 rejected accepted accepted From the above analysis, no single input measure appears to result in consistently higher or lower results, with the relationships varying by fleet segment. A comparison of the values of the maximum log-likelihood derived from each of the production frontier (i.e. the case where ≠0 in Table 7) suggests that the physical and economic measures of capital are generally 'better' measures in terms of explaining production than fuel use, and that both measures of capital inputs (i.e. economic and physical measures) are relatively comparable (Figure 2). Figure 2. Comparison of log likelihood values Value of maximum log likelihood function 80 Physical measures Capital value Fuel use 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Trawlers Seiners Gillnetters The use of fuel as a measure of input use (replacing both the capital and capital utilisation rate) also resulted in mixed results. The estimated efficiency scores were statistically different to those derived from capital value for the trawlers and seiners, but not significantly different to those of the gillnetters. Conversely, the measures were significantly different to those 16 derived from physical measures of capital for the gillnetters and seiners, but not for the trawlers. Discussion and conclusions The results of the above analyses suggest that the efficiency measures are dependent on the inputs used in the production function, and that different input measures can result in significantly different efficiency measures. Further, the effect of the input measure on the efficiency measurement is not consistent. That is, no single input measure produced consistently better or worse results than any other. The differences in the efficiency scores reflects the measurement errors involved in the different input measure. In each case, the inputs used were proxy measures of the inputs involved in the fishing process. These measures captured the effects of a different set of inputs, but not all inputs, resulting in part of the TE scores reflecting the mis-specification of the model through omission of relevant variables. Kumhbaker (2001) suggested that the estimation of production frontiers was more reliable than production functions when estimating production elasticities as any measurement errors or omitted variables are captured by the inefficiency term, and hence the derived elasticities are not biased. However, when the key interest is in the inefficiency term, such mis-specification will result in biased estimates of efficiency. These results have significant implications for the analysis of efficiency in fisheries. Firstly, the measures of efficiency are not independent of the variables that make up the deterministic part of the production frontier. This is counter to the general assumption underlying efficiency estimates. Further, models of technical inefficiency in fisheries will also be affected by the inputs used. Hence, apparent significant relationships between inefficiency and, say boat size, in an inefficiency model may reflect mis-specification of the production function rather than a true inefficiency relationship. Further analysis of the effects in input measures on inefficiency models needs to be undertaken. The 'good news' is that physical measures of capital inputs are no better or worse than 'economic' measures, such as capital values. While the latter offer potential advantages in that they should represent more of the inputs employed in fishing, in practice the values are estimates that might represent no more of the inputs than the physical measures alone. Further, the composition of these inputs in the aggregate value measure is not apparent. 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