Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 1 Chapter 8 Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations LEARNING OBJECTIVES The overall learning objective of Chapter 8 is to help you understand estimating parameters of single populations, thereby enabling you to: 1. Know the difference between point and interval estimation. 2. Estimate a population mean from a sample mean when is known. 3. Estimate a population mean from a sample mean when is unknown. 4. Estimate a population proportion from a sample proportion. 5. Estimate the population variance from a sample variance. 6. Estimate the minimum sample size necessary to achieve given statistical goals. Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 2 CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY Chapter 8 is the student's introduction to interval estimation and estimation of sample size. In this chapter, the concept of point estimate is discussed along with the notion that as each sample changes in all likelihood so will the point estimate. From this, the student can see that an interval estimate may be more usable as a one-time proposition than the point estimate. The confidence interval formulas for large sample means and proportions can be presented as mere algebraic manipulations of formulas developed in chapter 7 from the Central Limit Theorem. It is very important that students begin to understand the difference between mean and proportions. Means can be generated by averaging some sort of measurable item such as age, sales, volume, test score, etc. Proportions are computed by counting the number of items containing a characteristic of interest out of the total number of items. Examples might be proportion of people carrying a VISA card, proportion of items that are defective, proportion of market purchasing brand A. In addition, students can begin to see that sometimes single samples are taken and analyzed; but that other times, two samples are taken in order to compare two brands, two techniques, two conditions, male/female, etc. In an effort to understand the impact of variables on confidence intervals, it may be useful to ask the students what would happen to a confidence interval if the sample size is varied or the confidence is increased or decreased. Such consideration helps the student see in a different light the items that make up a confidence interval. The student can see that increasing the sample size, reduces the width of the confidence interval all other things being constant or that it increases confidence if other things are held constant. Business students probably understand that increasing sample size costs more and thus there are trade-offs in the research set-up. In addition, it is probably worthwhile to have some discussion with students regarding the meaning of confidence, say 95%. The idea is presented in the chapter that if 100 samples are randomly taken from a population and 95% confidence intervals are computed on each sample, that 95%(100) or 95 intervals should contain the parameter of estimation and approximately 5 will not. In most cases, only one confidence interval is computed, not 100, so the 95% confidence puts the odds in the researcher's favor. It should be pointed out, however, that the confidence interval computed may not contain the parameter of interest. This chapter introduces the student to the t distribution to estimate population means from small samples when is unknown. Emphasize that this applies only when the population is normally distributed. The student will observe that the t formula is essentially the same as the z formula and that it is the table that is different. When the population is normally distributed and is known, the z formula can be used even for small samples. In addition, note that some business researchers always prefer to use the t distribution when is unknown. Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 3 A formula is given in chapter 8 for estimating the population variance. Here the student is introduced to the chi-square distribution. An assumption underlying the use of this technique is that the population is normally distributed. The use of the chi-square statistic to estimate the population variance is extremely sensitive to violations of this assumption. For this reason, exercise extreme caution is using this technique. Some statisticians omit this technique from consideration. Lastly, this chapter contains a section on the estimation of sample size. One of the more common questions asked of statisticians is: "How large of a sample size should I take?" In this section, it should be emphasized that sample size estimation gives the researcher a "ball park" figure as to how many to sample. The “error of estimation “ is a measure of the sampling error. It is also equal to the + error of the interval shown earlier in the chapter. CHAPTER OUTLINE 8.1 Estimating the Population Mean Using the z Statistic. Finite Correction Factor Confidence Interval to Estimate µ When is Unknown Confidence Interval to Estimate When the Population Standard Deviation is Unknown and n is Large. 8.2 Estimating the Population Mean Using the t Statistic. The t Distribution Robustness Characteristics of the t Distribution. Reading the t Distribution Table Confidence Intervals to Estimate µ When is Unknown and Sample Size is Small Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 4 8.3 Estimating the Population Proportion 8.4 Estimating the Population Variance 8.5 Estimating Sample Size Sample Size When Estimating µ Determining Sample Size When Estimating p KEY WORDS Bounds Chi-square Distribution Degrees of Freedom(df) Error of Estimation Interval Estimate Point Estimate Robust Sample-Size Estimation t Distribution t Value Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 5 SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 8 8.1 a) x = 25 = 3.5 n = 60 95% Confidence x + z n z.025 = 1.96 = 25 + 1.96 3 .5 = 25 + 0.89 = 24.11 < µ < 25.89 60 b) x = 119.6 s = 23.89 98% Confidence s x + z n c) x = 3.419 90% C.I. x + z s n d) x = 56.7 80% C.I. x ±z n = 119.6 + 2.33 n = 75 z.01 = 2.33 2.89 = 119.6 ± 6.43 = 113.17 < µ < 126.03 75 s = 0.974 z.05 = 1.645 = 3.419 + 1.645 n = 32 0.974 = 3.419 ± .283 = 3.136 < µ < 3.702 32 = 12.1 N = 500 n = 47 z.10 = 1.28 N n 12.1 500 47 = 56.7 + 1.28 N 1 47 500 1 56.7 ± 2.15 = 54.55 < µ < 58.85 = Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 6 8.2 n = 36 95% C.I. x ± z n 8.3 n = 81 90% C.I. x ± z s n x = 90.4 94% C.I. n 8.5 n = 39 96% C.I. x ± z 2 = 36 = 211 ± 1.96 x = 47 s n = 47 ± 1.645 5.89 = 47 ± 1.08 = 45.92 < µ < 48.08 81 x = 90.4 Point Estimate z.03 = 1.88 = 90.4 ± 1.88 N = 200 z.02 = 2.05 49 = 90.4 ± 1.57 = 88.83 < µ < 91.97 70 x = 66 N n 11 = 66 ± 2.05 N 1 9 66 ± 3.25 = 62.75 < µ < 69.25 x = 66 211 ± 7.51 = 203.49 < µ < 218.51 s = 5.89 z.05=1.645 2 = 49 8.4 n = 70 x + z = 23 x = 211 z.025 = 1.96 Point Estimate s = 11 200 39 = 200 1 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 7 8.6 n = 120 99% C.I. x = 18.72 z.005 = 2.575 s = 0.8735 x = 18.72 Point Estimate x + z s n = 18.72 ± 2.575 8.7 N = 1500 95% C.I. n = 187 x = 5.3 years z.025 = 1.96 x = 5.3 years x ± z s n 0.8735 = 8.72 ± .21 = 18.51 < µ < 18.93 120 s = 1.28 years Point Estimate 1.28 1500 187 N n = 5.3 ± 1.96 = N 1 1500 1 187 5.3 ± .17 = 5.13 < µ < 5.47 8.8 n = 32 90% C.I. x ± z s n 8.9 n = 36 98% C.I. x ± z s n x = 5.656 z.05 = 1.645 s = 3.229 = 5.656 ± 1.645 x = 3.306 z.01 = 2.33 = 3.306 ± 2.33 3.229 = 5.656 ± .939 = 4.717 < µ < 6.595 32 s = 1.167 1.167 = 3.306 ± .453 = 2.853 < µ < 3.759 36 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8 8.10 n = 36 x = 2.139 s = .113 x = 2.139 Point Estimate 90% C.I. x ± z s n 8.11 = 27.4 x = 24.533 z.05 = 1.645 = 2.139 ± 1.645 (.113) = 2.139 ± .03 = 2.109 < µ < 2.169 36 95% confidence interval n = 45 s = 5.1239 z = + 1.96 Confidence interval: x + z s n = 24.533 + 1.96 24.533 + 1.497 = 23.036 < < 26.030 8.12 The point estimate is 0.5765. n = 41 The assumed standard deviation is 0.1394 99% level of confidence: z = + 1.96 Confidence interval: 0.5336 < µ < 0.6193 Error of the estimate: 0.6193 - 0.5765 = 0.0428 5.1239 = 45 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 9 8.13 n = 13 x = 45.62 s = 5.694 df = 13 – 1 = 12 95% Confidence Interval /2=.025 t.025,12 = 2.179 xt s n = 45.62 ± 2.179 8.14 n = 12 5.694 = 45.62 ± 3.44 = 42.18 < µ < 49.06 13 x = 319.17 s = 9.104 df = 12 - 1 = 11 90% confidence interval /2 = .05 xt s n t.05,11 = 1.796 = 319.17 ± (1.796) 8.15 n = 27 x = 128.4 9.104 = 319.17 ± 4.72 = 314.45 < µ < 323.89 12 s = 20.64 df = 27 – 1 = 26 98% Confidence Interval /2=.01 t.01,26 = 2.479 xt s n = 128.4 ± 2.479 20.6 = 128.4 ± 9.83 = 118.57 < µ < 138.23 27 x = 128.4 Point Estimate Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 10 8.16 n = 15 x = 2.364 df = 15 – 1 = 14 s2 = 0.81 90% Confidence interval /2=.05 t.05,14 = 1.761 xt s n = 2.364 ± 1.761 8.17 n = 25 0.81 = 2.364 ± .409 = 1.955 < µ < 2.773 15 x = 16.088 s = .817 df = 25 – 1 = 24 99% Confidence Interval /2=.005 t.005,24 = 2.797 xt s n = 16.088 ± 2.797 .817 = 16.088 ± .457 = 15.631 < µ < 16.545 25 x = 16.088 Point Estimate 8.18 n = 22 x = 1,192 98% CI and /2 = .01 xt s n = 1,192 + (2.518) s = 279 df = n - 1 = 21 t.01,21 = 2.518 279 = 1,192 + 149.78 = 1,042.22 < < 1,341.78 22 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 11 8.19 n = 20 df = 19 x = 2.36116 95% CI t.025,19 = 2.093 s = 0.19721 2.36116 + 2.093 0.1972 = 2.36116 + 0.0923 = 2.26886 < < 2.45346 20 Point Estimate = 2.36116 Error = 0.0923 8.20 n = 28 x = 5.335 s = 2.016 df = 28 – 1 = 27 /2=.05 90% Confidence Interval t.05,27 = 1.703 xt s n = 5.335 ± 1.703 8.21 n = 10 95% Confidence xt s n 2.016 = 5.335 + .649 = 4.686 < µ < 5.984 28 x = 49.8 s = 18.22 /2=.025 t.025,9 = 2.262 = 49.8 ± 2.262 df = 10 – 1 = 9 18.22 = 49.8 + 13.03 = 36.77 < µ < 62.83 10 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 12 8.22 n = 14, /2 = .01, 98% confidence, df = 13 t.01,13 = 2.650 from data: x = 152.16 s = 14.42 xt confidence interval: s n = 152.16 + 2.65 14.42 = 14 152.16 + 10.21 = 141.95 < < 162.37 The point estimate is 152.16 8.23 a) n = 44 pˆ z p̂ =.51 pˆ qˆ n b) n = 300 pˆ z d) n = 95 pˆ z (.51)(.49) = .51 ± .194 = .316 < p< .704 44 = .51 ± 2.575 p̂ = .82 z.005 = 2.575 95% C.I. z.025 = 1.96 (.82)(.18) pˆ qˆ = .82 ± 1.96 = .82 ± .043 = .777 < p < .863 n 300 c) n = 1150 pˆ z 99% C.I. p̂ = .48 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 (.48)(.52) pˆ qˆ = .48 ± 1.645 = .48 ± .024 = .456 < p < .504 n 1150 p̂ = .32 88% C.I. z.06 = 1.555 (.32)(.68) pˆ qˆ = .32 ± 1.555 = .32 ± .074 = .246 < p < .394 n 95 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 13 8.24 a) n = 116 p̂ = pˆ qˆ n c) n = 240 97% C.I. z.015 = 2.17 = .60 ± 2.17 x = 106 (.60)(.40) 800 = .60 ± .038 = .562 < p < .638 85% C.I. z.075 = 1.44 x 106 = .44 n 240 (.44)(.56) pˆ qˆ = .44 ± 1.44 = .44 ± .046 = .394 < p < .486 n 240 pˆ z d) n = 60 pˆ z x = 479 x 479 = .60 n 800 pˆ z p̂ = z.005 = 2.575 (.49)(.51) pˆ qˆ = .49 ± 2.575 = .49 ± .12 = .37 < p < .61 n 116 b) n = 800 p̂ = 99% C.I. x 57 = .49 n 116 pˆ z p̂ = x = 57 x = 21 90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645 x 21 = .35 n 60 (.35)(.65) pˆ qˆ = .35 ± 1.645 = .35 ± .10 = .25 < p < .45 n 60 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 14 8.25 n = 85 p̂ = pˆ z x = 40 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.645 = .47 ± .09 = .38 < p < .56 n 85 z.025 = 1.96 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 1.96 = .47 ± .106 = .364 < p < .576 n 85 99% C.I. pˆ z z.05 = 1.645 x 40 = .47 n 85 95% C.I. pˆ z 90% C.I. z.005 = 2.575 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 ± 2.575 = .47 ± .14 = .33 < p < .61 n 85 All things being constant, as the confidence increased, the width of the interval increased. 8.26 n = 1003 pˆ z p̂ = .245 99% CI z.005 = 2.575 (.245)(.755) pˆ qˆ = .245 + 2.575 = .245 + .035 = .21 < p < .28 n 1003 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 15 8.27 n = 560 p̂ = .47 n = 560 8.28 pˆ z 8.29 b) 90% CI z.05 = 1.645 (.28)(.72) pˆ qˆ = .28 + 1.645 = .28 + .0312 = .2488 < p < .3112 n 560 x = 997 98% C.I. z.01 = 2.33 x 997 = .80 n 1250 (.80)(.20) pˆ qˆ = .80 ± 2.33 = .80 ± .026 = .774 < p < .826 n 1250 n = 3481 p̂ = a) p̂ = .28 n = 1250 p̂ = z.025 = 1.96 (.47)(.53) pˆ qˆ = .47 + 1.96 = .47 + .0413 = .4287 < p < .5113 n 560 pˆ z pˆ z 95% CI x = 927 x 927 = .266 n 3481 p̂ = .266 Point Estimate 99% C.I. pˆ z z.005 = 2.575 (.266)(.734) pˆ qˆ = .266 + 2.575 = .266 ± .02 = n 3481 .246 < p < .286 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 16 8.30 n = 89 p̂ = 85% C.I. z.075 = 1.44 x 48 = .54 n 89 pˆ z 8.31 x = 48 (.54)(.46) pˆ qˆ = .54 ± 1.44 = .54 ± .076 = .464 < p < .616 n 89 p̂ = .63 pˆ z 8.32 a) n = 12 n = 672 95% Confidence z = + 1.96 (.63)(.37) pˆ qˆ = .63 + 1.96 = .63 + .0365 = .5935 < p < .6665 n 672 x = 28.4 2.995,11 = 2.60321 s2 = 44.9 99% C.I. 2.005,11 = 26.7569 (12 1)( 44.9) (12 1)( 44.9) < 2 < 26.7569 2.60321 18.46 < 2 < 189.73 b) n = 7 x = 4.37 95% C.I. 2.975,6 = 1.237347 s = 1.24 s2 = 1.5376 df = 12 – 1 = 11 2.025,6 = 14.4494 (7 1)(1.5376) (7 1)(1.5376) < 2 < 14.4494 1.237347 0.64 < 2 < 7.46 c) n = 20 x = 105 90% C.I. s = 32 s2 = 1024 df = 20 – 1 = 19 df = 12 – 1 = 11 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 17 2.95,19 = 10.117 2.05,19 = 30.1435 (20 1)(1024) (20 1)(1024) < 2 < 30.1435 10.117 645.45 < 2 < 1923.10 d) n = 17 s2 = 18.56 2.90,16 = 9.31223 80% C.I. df = 17 – 1 = 16 2.10,16 = 23.5418 (17 1)(18.56) (17 1)(18.56) < 2 < 23.5418 9.31223 12.61 < 2 < 31.89 8.33 n = 16 s2 = 37.1833 2.99,15 = 5.22935 98% C.I. df = 16-1 = 15 2.01,15 = 30.5779 (16 1)(37.1833) (16 1)(37.1833) < 2 < 30.5779 5.22935 18.24 < 2 < 106.66 8.34 n = 12 s = 4.3 s2 = 18.49 98% C.I. df = 20 – 1 = 19 2.99,19 = 7.63273 2.01,19 = 36.1980 (20 1)(18.49) (20 1)(18.49) < 2 < 36.1980 7.63273 9.71 < 2 < 46.03 Point Estimate = s2 = 18.49 8.35 n = 152 s2 = 3.067 2.995,14 = 4.07468 99% C.I. 2.005,14 = 31.3193 df = 15 – 1 = 14 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 18 (15 1)(3.067) (15 1)(3.067) < 2 < 31.3193 24.07468 1.37 < 2 < 10.54 8.36 n = 14 s2 = 26,798,241.76 95% C.I. df = 14 – 1 = 13 Point Estimate = s2 = 26,798,241.76 2.975,13 = 5.00874 2.025,13 = 24.7356 (14 1)( 26,798,241.76) (14 1)( 26,798,241.76) < 2 < 24.7356 5.00874 14,084,038.51 < 2 < 69,553,848.45 8.37 a) = 36 n= E=5 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (36) 2 = 199.15 E2 52 Sample 200 b) = 4.13 E=1 99% Confidence z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (4.13) 2 n= E2 12 = 113.1 Sample 114 c) E = 10 Range = 500 - 80 = 420 1/4 Range = (.25)(420) = 105 90% Confidence n = z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (105) 2 = 298.3 E2 10 2 Sample 299 z.005 = 2.575 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 19 d) E = 3 Range = 108 - 50 = 58 1/4 Range = (.25)(58) = 14.5 88% Confidence n = z.06 = 1.555 z 2 2 (1.555) 2 (14.5) 2 E2 32 = 56.5 Sample 57 8.38 a) E = .02 n = p=.40 96% Confidence z.02 = 2.05 z 2 p q (2.05) 2 (.40)(.60) = 2521.5 E2 (.02) 2 Sample 2522 b) E = .04 n = p=.50 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) = 600.25 E2 (.04) 2 Sample 601 c) E = .05 n = p = .55 90% Confidence z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.55)(.45) = 267.9 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 268 z.05 = 1.645 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 20 d) E =.01 n = p = .50 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 z 2 p q (2.575) 2 (.50)(.50) = 16,576.6 E2 (.01) 2 Sample 16,577 8.39 E = $200 n = = $1,000 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 z 2 2 (2.575) 2 (1000) 2 = 165.77 E2 200 2 Sample 166 8.40 E = $2 n = = $12.50 90% Confidence z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (12.50) 2 = 105.7 E2 22 Sample 106 8.41 E = $100 Range = $2,500 - $600 = $1,900 1/4 Range = (.25)($1,900) = $475 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (475) 2 n = = 61.05 E2 100 2 Sample 62 z.05 = 1.645 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 21 8.42 p = .20 q = .80 90% Confidence, n = E = .02 z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.20)(.80) = 1082.41 E2 (.02) 2 Sample 1083 8.43 p = .50 q = .50 95% Confidence, E = .05 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) n = = 384.16 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 385 8.44 E = .10 p = .50 95% Confidence, q = .50 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q (1.96) 2 (.50)(.50) n = = 96.04 E2 (.10) 2 Sample 97 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 22 8.45 x = 45.6 s = 7.7467 80% confidence xz s n n = 35 z.10 = 1.28 45.6 1.28 7.7467 35 = 45.6 + 1.676 43.924 < < 47.276 94% confidence z.03 = 1.88 s 7.7467 xz n 45.6 1.88 35 = 45.6 + 2.462 43.138 < < 48.062 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 s 7.7467 xz n 45.6 2.33 35 = 45.6 + 3.051 42.549 < < 48.651 8.46 x = 12.03 (point estimate) For 90% confidence: xt s n 12.03 1.833 11.78 < < 12.28 s = .4373 /2 = .05 .4373 10 n = 10 t.05,9= 1.833 = 12.03 + .25 df = 9 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 23 /2 = .025 For 95% confidence: s xt n 12.03 2.262 t.025,9 = 2.262 .4373 = 12.03 + .31 10 11.72 < < 12.34 /2 = .005 For 99% confidence: s xt n 12.03 3.25 t.005,9 = 3.25 (.4373) = 12.03 + .45 10 11.58 < < 12.48 8.47 a) n = 715 pˆ x = 329 329 = .46 715 95% confidence pˆ z z.025 = 1.96 pˆ qˆ (.46)(.54) = .46 + .0365 .46 1.96 n 715 .4235 < p < .4965 b) n = 284 pˆ z p̂ = .71 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 pˆ qˆ (.71)(.29) .71 1.645 = .71 + .0443 n 284 .6657 < p < .7543 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 24 c) n = 1250 pˆ z p̂ = .48 95% confidence z.025 = 1.96 pˆ qˆ (.48)(.52) = .48 + .0277 .48 1.96 n 1250 .4523 < p < .5077 d) n = 457 pˆ x = 270 98% confidence z.01 = 2.33 270 = .591 457 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.591)(.409) = .591 + .0536 .591 2.33 n 457 .5374 < p < .6446 8.48 n = 10 s2 = 54.7667 s = 7.40045 90% confidence, /2 = .05 2.95,9 = 3.32511 df = 10 – 1 = 9 1 - /2 = .95 2.05,9 = 16.919 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 16.919 3.32511 29.133 < 2 < 148.236 95% confidence, /2 = .025 2.975,9 = 2.70039 1 - /2 = .975 2.025,9 = 19.0228 (10 1)(54.7667) (10 1)(54.7667) < 2 < 19.0228 2.70039 4.258 < 2 < 182.529 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 25 8.49 a) = 44 n = E=3 95% confidence z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (44) 2 = 826.4 E2 32 Sample 827 b) E = 2 Range = 88 - 20 = 68 use = 1/4(range) = (.25)(68) = 17 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 2 (1.645) 2 (17) 2 = 195.5 E2 22 Sample 196 c) E = .04 p = .50 98% confidence q = .50 z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q (2.33) 2 (.50)(.50) = 848.3 E2 (.04) 2 Sample 849 d) E = .03 p = .70 95% confidence q = .30 z.025 = 1.96 z 2 p q 4(1.96) 2 (.70)(.30) = 896.4 E2 (.03) 2 Sample 897 z.025 = 1.96 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 26 8.50 n = 17 x = 10.765 /2 = .005 99% confidence s xt n S = 2.223 10.765 2.921 df = 17 - 1 = 16 t.005,16 = 2.921 2.223 = 10.765 + 1.575 17 9.19 < µ < 12.34 8.51 p=.40 n = E=.03 90% Confidence z.05 = 1.645 z 2 p q (1.645) 2 (.40)(.60) = 721.61 E2 (.03) 2 Sample 722 8.52 s2 = 4.941 n = 17 2.995,16 = 5.14224 99% C.I. df = 17 – 1 = 16 2.005,16 = 34.2672 (17 1)( 4.941) (17 1)( 4.941) < 2 < 34.2672 5.14224 2.307 < 2 < 15.374 8.53 n = 45 x = 213 98% Confidence xz s n 213 2.33 196.33 < µ < 229.67 s = 48 z.01 = 2.33 48 45 = 213 ± 16.67 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 27 8.54 n = 39 x = 37.256 s = 3.891 90% confidence z.05 = 1.645 s 3.891 xz n 37.256 1.645 39 = 37.256 ± 1.025 36.231 < µ < 38.281 8.55 =6 E=1 98% Confidence z.98 = 2.33 z 2 2 (2.33) 2 (6) 2 = 195.44 E2 12 n = Sample 196 8.56 n = 1,255 pˆ x = 714 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 714 = .569 1255 pˆ z pˆ qˆ (.569)(. 431) .569 1.96 = .569 ± .027 n 1,255 .542 < p < .596 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 28 8.57 n = 25 s = 21 x = 128 df = 25 – 1 = 24 98% C.I. t.01,24 = 2.492 Point Estimate = $128 s xt n 128 2.492 21 25 = 128 + 10.466 117.534 < < 138.466 Interval Width = 138.466 – 117.534 = 20.932 8.58 n = 60 x = 6.717 98% Confidence xz s n s = 3.059 N =300 z.01 = 2.33 N n 3.059 300 60 6.717 2.33 N 1 300 1 60 6.717 ± 0.824 = 5.893 < µ < 7.541 8.59 E = $20 Range = $600 - $30 = $570 1/4 Range = (.25)($570) = $142.50 95% Confidence n = z.025 = 1.96 z 2 2 (1.96) 2 (142.50) 2 = 195.02 E2 20 2 Sample 196 = Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 29 8.60 n = 245 pˆ x = 189 90% Confidence z.05= 1.645 x 189 = .77 n 245 pˆ qˆ (.77)(.23) = .77 ± .044 .77 1.645 n 245 pˆ z .726 < p < .814 8.61 n = 90 pˆ x = 30 95% Confidence z.025 = 1.96 x 30 = .33 n 90 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) .33 1.96 = .33 ± .097 n 90 pˆ z .233 < p < .427 8.62 n = 12 x = 43.7 s2 = 228 df = 12 – 1 = 11 t.025,11 = 2.201 xt s n 43.7 2.201 228 12 = 43.7 + 9.59 34.11 < < 53.29 2.975,11 = 3.81575 2.025,11 = 21.92 (12 1)( 228) (12 1)( 228) < 2 < 21.92 3.81575 114.42 < 2 < 657.28 95% C.I. Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 30 8.63 n = 27 x = 4.82 95% CI: xt s n s = 0.37 df = 26 t.025,26 = 2.056 4.82 2.056 0.37 27 = 4.82 + .1464 4.6736 < µ < 4.9664 We are 95% confident that µ does not equal 4.50. 8.64 n = 77 x = 2.48 s = 12 95% Confidence xz s n 2.48 1.96 z.025 = 1.96 12 77 = 2.48 ± 2.68 -0.20 < µ < 5.16 The point estimate is 2.48 The interval is inconclusive. It says that we are 95% confident that the average arrival time is somewhere between .20 of a minute (12 seconds) early and 5.16 minutes late. Since zero is in the interval, there is a possibility that on average the flights are on time. 8.65 p̂ =.33 n = 560 99% Confidence pˆ z z.005= 2.575 pˆ qˆ (.33)(.67) .33 2.575 = .33 ± (2.575) = .33 ± .05 n 560 .28 < p < .38 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 31 8.66 p = .50 E = .05 98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33 z 2 p q (2.33) 2 (.50)(.50) = 542.89 E2 (.05) 2 Sample 543 8.67 n = 27 x = 2.10 98% confidence xt s n s = 0.86 /2 = .01 2.10 2.479 0.86 27 df = 27 - 1 = 26 t.01,26 = 2.479 = 2.10 ± (2.479) = 2.10 ± 0.41 1.69 < µ < 2.51 8.68 df = 23 – 1 = 22 n = 23 2.95,22 = 12.338 s = .0631455 90% C.I. 2.05,22 = 33.9244 (23 1)(. 0631455) 2 (23 1)(. 0631455) 2 < 2 < 33.9244 12.338 .0026 < 2 < .0071 8.69 n = 39 xz x = 1.294 s n 1.294 2.575 1.209 < µ < 1.379 s = 0.205 0.205 39 99% Confidence z.005 = 2.575 = 1.294 ± (2.575) = 1.294 ± .085 Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 32 8.70 The sample mean fill for the 58 cans is 11.9788 oz. with a standard deviation of .0556 oz. The 99% confidence interval for the population fill is 11.9607 oz. to 11.9970 oz. which does not include 12 oz. We are 99% confident that the population mean is not 12 oz. indicating an underfill from the machine. 8.71 The point estimate for the average length of burn of the new bulb is 2198.217 hours. Eighty-four bulbs were included in this study. A 90% confidence interval can be constructed from the information given. The error of the confidence interval is + 27.76691. Combining this with the point estimate yields the 90% confidence interval of 2198.217 + 27.76691 = 2170.450 < µ < 2225.984. 8.72 The point estimate for the average age of a first time buyer is 27.63 years. The sample of 21 buyers produces a standard deviation of 6.54 years. We are 98% confident that the actual population mean age of a first-time home buyer is between 24.02 years and 31.24 years. 8.73 A poll of 781 American workers was taken. Of these, 506 drive their cars to work. Thus, the point estimate for the population proportion is 506/781 = .648. A 95% confidence interval to estimate the population proportion shows that we are 95% confident that the actual value lies between .613 and .681. The error of this interval is + .034.