Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): The F-Test t- tests are limited to only being able to compare 2 groups at a time. Using multiple t-tests inflates the chance of a Type one error. F-tests can compare 2, 3 or more groups in a complex experiment while keeping Type I error probability at a specified level (e.g. .05) The F-Ratio : ANOVA divides the variability (V) in an experiment into 2 parts Total Variability Between Groups Variance (BGV) 1. Treatment Effect 2. Individual Differences 3. Experimental Error Within Group Variance (WGV) 1. No Treatment effect 2. Individual Differences 3. Experimental Error The value of F comes from the F-ratio, which divides the BGV by the WGV: F BGV WGV OR F MeanSquareBG MeanSquareWG Note: The treatment effect (if any) will show in the numerator (the BGV or Mean SquareBG) Therefore, if there is no treatment effect it should be the case that F is approximately 1.0. If there is a significant effect, F should be > 1. 1 Null Hypothesis for ANOVA: Ho: 1=2=3…k k refers to the number of groups or experimental conditions If Ho is rejected (treatment effect present) F should be > 1.0 Alternate or working hypothesis for ANOVA: At least one population mean () is different from the others The F – Distribution The F – distribution is positively skewed, therefore the F – test is always a one tailed test 2 Solving for F – Ratio (ANOVA) New Symbols: k: the number of levels or groups in the experiment N: total number of subjects in the experiment n: number of subjects in each group, e.g. n1=5, n2=5, n3=5 T: X for each group, e.g. T1=47, T2=42, T3=58 G: X for the entire experiment (T G) Formula Summary Table for ANOVA Source Between Groups df k-1 Within Groups Total N-k SS MS T 2 G2 n N SS inside each group N-1 SS BG df BG SSW G dfW G F p MS BG MS W G From table G2 X N 2 3 Example Problem: Does medication reduce the incidence of manic episodes among bipolar clients? To examine this question, 2 medications were compared to a control group over a 5 - year period. Numbers below are the number of manic episodes for patients in each group. Prozac 11 10 9 9 8 Lithium 13 12 12 10 9 Placebo Control 15 12 17 10 12 This is a one Factor or one-way ANOVA – Factor refers to the number of Independent Variables This experiment has one factor (Drug) with 3 levels Had the experiment looked at the effects of these same drugs on manic episodes for Males and Females separately, there would be a second IV or factor namely gender. This would then be a two-factor or two-way ANOVA 4 Conducting an ANOVA can be divided into 2 main parts: Conducting the ANOVA itself Conducting Post Hoc tests if the ANOVA is significant ANOVA Step 1: State the hypothesis and select the alpha level: Ho: 1=2=3 Medications have no effect on number of manic episodes H1: At least one population mean () is different from the others Step 2: Identify the critical region From the F Table: F.05 (2,12) = 3.88 F.01 (2,12) = 6.93 5 Step 3: Solve for the test statistic, in this case F 3 a) compute the following values Prozac Lithium T X2 SS n M 47 447 5.20* 5 9.40 56 638 10.80* 5 11.20 G = 169 N = 15 Placebo Control 66 902 30.80* 5 13.20 X2Total = 1987 k = 3 2 SS X * ( X ) 2 n for each group 6 3b) Construct a blank summary table and complete the calculations Source Between Groups Within Groups Total df SS MS F p Calculations for the summary table 3b-1) df dfBG = k-1 = 3-1 = 2 dfWG = N-k = 15-3 = 12 dfTotal = N-1 = 15-1 = 14 3b-2) SS SSBG = T 2 G2 n N T12 T22 T32 G 2 n1 n2 n3 N 47 2 56 2 66 2 169 2 = 5 5 5 15 7 =441.8 + 627.2 + 871.2 – 1904.07 36.13 SSWG = SS inside each group 5.2 10.8 30.8 46.8 G2 SSTotal = X N 2 169 2 1987 15 1987 1904.07 82.93 ** Check SS BG SSW G SSTotal 36.13 46.8 82.93 8 SS BG 3b-3) MS BG df BG 36.13 2 18.07 MSW G SSW G df W G 46.8 12 3.90 F 3b4) MS BG MS W G 18.07 3.90 4.63 9 The completed summary table: Source Between Groups Within Groups Total df 2 SS 36.13 12 46.8 14 82.93 MS 18.07 F p 4.63 <.05 3.90 Step 4: Make a decision Reject Ho: At least one of the groups has a significantly different number of manic episodes Step 5: If the ANOVA was not significant, make a final statement in the conventional manner e.g. The results of the study show that type of medication has no significant effect on the number of manic episodes However, this was not our finding. We found a significant effect of Drug on number of Manic episodes. Therefore, we need to conduct post hoc comparisons (also called paired or pair wise comparisons) to determine which group(s) is/are different from one another. 10 Post hoc comparisons between group means: There are several types of post hoc comparisons – we will examine a relatively conservative type known as the Scheffe F – test This test guards against Type I errors by: Maintaining the same df as the overall F Using the same critical values to evaluate F – Scheffe as the overall F Post Hoc Comparisons: Step 1 The first step is to rank order the difference (largest to smallest) between all possible group means Greatest difference: Mcontrol Vs MProzac (13.2 – 9.4 = 3.8) 2nd greatest difference : Mcontrol Vs MLithium (13.3 – 11.2 = 2.0) 3rd greatest difference MLithium Vs MProzac (11.2 – 9.4 = 1.8) 11 Note: df remain the same as in the overall ANOVA (e.g. 2,12) MSWG remains the same as in the overall ANOVA (e.g. 3.90) A new MSBG is computed for each pairwise comparison Post Hoc Comparisons: Step 2: Conduct the pair wise comparisons in the order indicated by the ranking: First pair wise comparison (Control Vs Prozac): SSBG for Control Vs Prozac SSBG = T 2 G2 n N 47 2 662 1132 5 5 10 Note: only 2 groups: new G and new N = 871.2 + 441.8 – 1276.9 = 36.1 Calculate a new MSBG for control Vs Prozac SS BG MSBG = df BG Retain same df as overall ANOVA 12 36.1 18.05 2 FScheffe = MS BG MS W G New MSBG divided by MSWG from overall ANOVA 18.05 3.90 4.63 Comparing 4.63 to the critical value: F.05(2,12) = 3.88 FScheffe (2,12) = 4.63, p<.05, reject Ho Patients in the control group did not significantly differ in manic episodes from patients in the Prozac group 13 Second pair wise comparison (Control Vs Lithium): Because the first pair wise comparison was significant, we go on to the second: Control Vs Lithium SSBG for Control Vs Lithium SSBG = T 2 G2 n N 662 562 1222 5 5 10 Note: again, only 2 groups: new G and new N = 871.2 + 627.2 – 1488.4 = 10.0 MSBG for Control Vs lithium SS BG MSBG = df BG Retain same df as overall ANOVA 10.0 2 5 .0 FScheffe = MS BG MSW G New MSBG divided by MSWG from overall ANOVA 14 5.0 3.90 1.28 Comparing 1.28 to the critical value: F.05(2,12) = 3.88 FScheffe (2,12) = 1.28, p>.05, fail to reject Ho Patients in the control group did not significantly differ in manic episodes from patients in the Lithium group Note: Once the first non significant post hoc comparison is revealed, the comparisons stop (otherwise we could start inflating the possibility of Type 1 errors) We know that the comparison between Lithium and Prozac will not be significant, because the difference between these means is even smaller than with the 2nd comparison. Step Final statement: Overall, the results of the ANOVA indicated a significant effect of medication on number of manic episodes F. (2,12) = 4.63, p<.05. Scheffe post hoc comparisons revealed that Prozac reduced manic episodes compared to the control FScheffe (2,12) = 4.63, p<.05. No other comparisons were significant. 15