Inference for Means Chapters 23-25 REVIEW Name________________________________ Class period_____ 1. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated that the 1991 G-car obtains a mean of 35 miles per gallon on the highway, and the company that manufactures the car claims that that is incorrect. To support its assertion, the company randomly selects thirty-six 1991 G-cars and records the mileage obtained for each car over a driving course similar to that used by the EPA. The company found a mean of 36.8 miles per gallon with a standard deviation of 6 miles per gallon. Do the data provide sufficient evidence to support the manufacturer’s claim that the mean miles per gallon is different from 35? Use a 5% significance level ( = .05). 2. A restaurant franchise company has a policy of opening new restaurants in those areas that have a mean household income of at least $35,000 per year. The company is currently considering an area to open a new restaurant. The research department took a sample of 20 households from this area and found that the mean income of these households is $34,124 per year with a standard deviation of $3400. The income distribution in this area is approximately normal. Using the 1% significance level, would you conclude that the company should not open a restaurant in this area? ( = .01) 3. Last year the average grade on the inference test was 82. A random sample of this year’s student scores on the same test produced the results below. Test at the .02 significance level to see whether the scores have changed significantly from last year? 83 87 98 92 91 100 88 89 93 81 94 96 4. Which example would give a longer confidence interval in each case below. a) 95% confidence with n = 25 or 95% confidence with n = 75? b) 99% confidence with n = 50 or 90% confidence with n = 50? 5. Two different firms design their own version of the same aptitude test, and a psychologist administers both versions to randomly selected adult subjects with the results given below. At the 0.05 level of significance, test the claim that both versions produce about the same results. subject test 1 test 2 A 106 99 B 115 112 C 101 104 D 124 113 E 123 101 F 96 88 G 101 110 H 105 109 I 110 109 6. The accompanying data on water salinity (%) was obtained during a study of seasonal influence of Amazon River water on biological production in the western tropical Atlantic. Let 1 denote the true average salinity level of summer and 2 denote the true average salinity level of winter. Test the claim that the salinity level is higher in the winter at the 2% significance level. period sample size sample mean sample standard deviation summer 51 33.4 0.428 winter 54 35.39 0.294 7. A botanist measures the heights of 40 random seedlings and obtains a mean and standard deviation of 58.4 cm and 6.2 cm, respectively. Construct the 98% confidence interval for the population mean. 8. If 60 persons on a diet had weight losses with x = 22.9 pounds and s = 4.2 pounds, construct a 95% confidence interval for the true mean weight loss of persons on this diet. 9. Suppose that the yield of a certain fruit variety has variance 2 = 900 (lb)2. A random sample of 100 trees this season have a mean yield of x = 275 lb per tree. Give a 95% confidence interval for the mean yield of this variety this season. 10. Spreading fires tend to do more damage to hardwood forests than do spot fires. Data on the percent of trees scarred by fire that appeared in the paper “Natural Disturbance Regimes in Hemlock-Hardwood Forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region” can be used to quantify the difference in the extent of damage. Test the claim that spreading fires cause more damage. Use = 0.05. Percent Scarred Spreading fires 21.9 26.7 9.2 6.7 29.2 26.7 6.7 8.3 18.4 4.9 Spot fires 1.6 4.6 1.1 5.6 21.1 11.9 4.8 14.7 7.5 11. Give a 90% confidence interval for 1 2 using the information in problem 10 and explain what it means. 12. As you may know, there has been bad blood between the Montague family and the Capulet family for a good while. In this modern day, the appropriate resolution would be by psychological tests. In the test “propensity to fall in love” the mean of the 6 Montagues was 54 and the mean of the 10 Capulets was 64. (Italian norms show a national average of 100.) When a statistician compared the families with a t-test, a value of 1.75 was obtained. If you adopt an level of .10 (two tailed test), you should conclude that the Capulets are A) significantly more loving than the Montagues. B) significantly less loving than the Montagues. C) not significantly different from the Montagues. D) not yet comparable; additional information is needed. 13. We want to estimate the mean energy consumption level for a home in one region. We want to be 98% confident that our sample mean is within 20 kwh of the true population mean. Past data strongly suggests that the population standard deviation is 120 kwh. How large must our sample be? 14. The logic of hypothesis testing involves assuming A) that two populations have equal means and then using sample data to conclude that they are probably equal. B) that two populations have unequal means and then using sample data to conclude that they are probably unequal. C) that two populations have equal means and then using sample data to conclude that they are probably unequal. D) that two populations have unequal means and then using sample data to conclude that they are probably equal. 15. A manager at a manufacturing plant tests a shipment of parts to see if the diameter of the parts meets the specifications of 5 mm. He tests 50 randomly selected parts and finds the mean diameter to be 5.93 mm. Describe a Type I and Type II error for this problem. 16. When completing a test of significance, what does the P-value mean? 17. A 90% confidence interval for the mean score of statistics students on a particular unit is (79.3 , 85.1). If the teacher claims that the mean score is 86 and runs a one tailed significance test at the 5% level, what can you expect? 18. What is t* for a 70% confidence interval with a sample size of 25? 19. Fruit Loops is labeled to contain 14 ounces of cereal in each box. To test this 32 randomly selected boxes are opened and the cereal is weighed. Ho: = 14 is tested against Ha: 14 at the 2% level. a) What is the corresponding confidence level for this test? b) If the corresponding confidence interval is (12.9 , 14.1), would you reject or fail to reject Ho? Why? 20. A confidence interval is found to be (16.9, 25.5) What is the sample mean? 21. If a result is statistically significant (reject Ho) at the 10% level, is it always significant at the 5% level? Is it significant at the 20% level? 22. What is the margin of error? 23. The mean time it takes an egg to hard boil is approximately 9 minutes with a certain campstove. A random sample of 15 eggs was tested one at a time with the same amount of water at the 10% significance level. What is the critical value if a) Ho: = 9 and Ha: > 9 b) Ho: = 9 and Ha: 9 c) Ho: = 9 and Ha: < 9 24. A 98% confidence interval about the difference between sample means is (3, 6). For a one tailed t-test at the .01 significance level we would A)fail to reject the null hypothesis B) reject the null hypothesis C) more information is needed 25. a)A one tailed t-test gives a test statistic of t = 2.234. If df = 18, between what two probabilities does the P-value fall in the table? b) a two tailed test with same statistics 26. A 98% confidence interval for the difference of two means is ( 7, 2). You could conclude? A) The first group has a much lower mean than the second group. B) There is a significant difference in the means of the two groups. C) There is no significant difference in the means of the two groups. D) There is a 2% chance that the two means are the same. 27. A new variety of apple is intended to resist cedar apple rust which tends to stunt growth. A horticulturist grows 50 trees of the new strain and 100 of the parent strain under the same field conditions. At the end of three years, the height of each tree is measured. The new strain has a mean of 15.2 feet with a standard deviation of 1.4 feet while the parent strain has a mean height of 14.9 feet with a standard deviation of 1.8 feet. Give a 99% confidence interval for the difference between the heights of new strain versus parent strain trees. State what the confidence interval means. For questions 28-30, name the appropriate test. DO NOT COMPLETE THE TEST. 28. An environmentalist is interested in whether or not education would help students properly use recycling bins. He randomly selects 10 days before his presentation and 10 days after his presentation to count the number of non-plastic items in the plastic bottle recycling container at WWHS with the results listed in the table below. Did the educational presentation work? Before 12 15 9 12 15 23 14 8 13 14 after 4 3 5 0 1 1 6 3 0 0 29. A nature preserve is interested in the effect hikers walking dogs have on the wildlife. An environmentalist randomly selects 23 dogs from the Humane Society and takes each for a walk in the preserve, noting whether or not the dog barks or startles the wildlife. He finds that 17 of the dogs tend to startle local wildlife. Does this contradict the dog lover’s claim that only 30% of dogs chase wildlife? 30. The environmentalist above decides to see if dogs can be trained to walk without barking at the birds and squirrels. He takes 10 randomly selected dogs for a walk in the nature preserve and counts the number of times each dog barks at the wildlife. Then the dogs are sent for special training for three weeks. After the training the dogs again go for a walk in the preserve where the number of times they bark at wildlife is recorded. Did the training help deter the barking at wildlife? Dog A B C D E F G H I J Before 12 15 9 12 15 23 14 8 13 14 after 4 3 5 0 1 1 6 3 0 0 **********************Answers********************************** 1. population characteristic: μ = mean miles per gallon; Ho: =35 ; Ha: 35 ; conditions: random sample of cars given; independence is reasonable since one car’s mileage per gallon 36.8 35 doesn’t affect another car’s mpg. Large enough sample n = 36 30; t = = 1.8, df = 35 6 36 p-value = .0805. Fail to reject Ho since the p-value > ; There is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that a mean of 35 miles per gallon is incorrect. The G-cars may get 35 mpg. 2. population characteristic: μ = mean household income Ho: =35000 ; Ha: 35000 conditions: random sample of households given; Independence is reasonable since one household’s income doesn’t affect another household. Given normal population income distribution so an 34124 35000 approximately normal sampling distribution is reasonable; t = = 1.15, df = 19 , 3400 20 p-value = .132. Fail to reject Ho because the p-value > ; The sample data is not sufficient to claim that the mean income is less than $35,000. A restaurant in this area may be successful. 3. population characteristic: μ = average grade on inference test; Ho: = 82; Ha 82; conditions: random sample of student scores given, Independence is reasonable since one student’s score shouldn’t affect another student’s score. It appears reasonable to assume an approximately normal sampling distribution since the boxplot of sample scores is fairly symmetric. 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 3 con’t) t = 5.435 ; df = 11 ; p-value = .0002055; reject Ho since the p-value < ; There is enough evidence to show that the test scores are indeed different this year. Students appear to be scoring significantly higher. 4.a) 95% confidence with n=25 b) 99% confidence with n = 50 5. µd = mean of the differences between subjects scores on Test 1 and Test 2; Ho:d= 0; Ha:d0; d =4.0, sd = 9.287, Assumptions: random sample of subjects given; Aptitude scores are dependant on subject. Boxplot appears symmetric enough to assume an approximately normal sampling distribution ─10 ─5 0 5 10 15 20 of differences. 40 Test statistic: t = =1.292; df = 8; P-value = 0.232 9.287 9 fail to reject Ho since p-value > . There is not enough evidence to claim the two versions are significantly different. They could produce about the same results. 25 6. 1, 2 defined in problem; Ho: 1=2 ; Ha: 1<2 ; Conditions: random water samples given; Independence is reasonable since there are certainly more than 510 (51x10) summer samples and 540 (54x10) winter water samples available. approx. normal sampling distribution of ( x1 x2 )since both 33.4 35.39 samples are large enough; n1=51 and n2=54 are both > 30. Test statistic: t = .428 2 .294 2 51 54 P-value = 0; reject Ho since p-value < ; The data strongly supports the claim that the salinity level is higher in the winter. 7. one sample t-interval ; conditions: Random seedlings given; Independence is reasonable since one seedling’s height doesn’t affect another’s height. large enough sample since n = 40 > 30. (56.022 , 60.778) We are 98% confident the mean seedling height is between 56.022 cm and 60.778 cm. 8. one sample t-interval; conditions: random selection not addressed in problem; large enough sample since n = 60 > 30. 21.815 23.985 (Note: some texts write confidence intervals like this) We are 95% confident the mean weight loss for persons on this diet is between 21.8 and 24 pounds. 9. one sample t-interval; conditions: Random sample of trees given; large enough sample since n = 100 > 30; Independent tree yields seems reasonable. (269.05 , 280.95) We are 95% confident the true mean yield for this variety of tree is between 269.05 and 280.95 pounds. 10. 1= mean percent of scarred trees from spreading fires; 2 =mean percent of scarred trees from spot fires; Ho: 1=2; Ha: 1>2; two sample T-test: Conditions: Random sample of Upper Great Lakes forest fires not addressed; We’ll assume that spreading fires and spot fires are independent. approximately normal sampling distributions as shown by boxplots (show both graphs on the test) Critical value: 1.740; Test statistic: t = 2.06; P-value = 0.028 ; reject Ho since p-value < The data supports the claim that spreading fires cause more damage than spot fires. 11. Two-sample t-interval; (1.183, 14.357) We are 90% confident that spreading fires cause between 1.183% and 14.357% more of the forest to be damaged. (Conditions given in #10) 12. C 13. n = 195 14. C 15. Type I error: He states that the parts do not meet the specifications when in fact they do. Type II error: He states that the parts do meet the specifications when in fact they do not. 16. It is the probability a sample would get the given results by chance alone if the null hypothesis is true. 17. Since 86 is not in the corresponding interval, we can expect that the true mean is not as high as 86 and we would reject her claim of a higher mean. The average grade appears to be lower than 86. 18. 1.059 19. a) 98% since the test is 2-tailed b) fail to reject Ho since 14 is included in the interval. 20. 21.2 21..If = .10 then the test may not be significant at the = .05 level since .05 < .10 so more proof is needed. But the results will always be significant at the =.20 level since .20 > .10. 22. The margin of error occurs since we are taking a sample to represent an entire population. Different samples produce different results. The margin of error tells us that the population is likely to be not more than that far away from our sample statistic. The formula for margin of error is critical value (t*) times the standard error. 23. a) 1.345 24. B b) 1.761, 1.761 25. a).01 p .02 c) 1.345 b) .02 < p < .04 26. C 27. 2 sample t-interval; conditions: Random assignment to treatments not discussed in problem. Independence seems reasonable since the height of one tree probably doesn’t affect the height of another tree and there’s potentially an infinite number of each tree which satisfies the 10% rule of thumb. Large enough samples since n1 = 50 > 30 and n2 = 100 > 30. ( .4002 , 1.0) We are 99% confident the mean height difference between the two types of trees is between ─.4 feet and 1 foot. Since zero is part of the interval, there does not appear to be a significant difference between the two strains of apple trees. 28. Two sample t-test 29. one proportion z-test 30. paired t-test since the data are dependent on the dog