Prof. Li Zengquan
zqli@mail.shufe.edu.cn
SUFE/2012
1
引子：独立董事的价值
2
引子：独立董事的价值
3
引子：独立董事的价值
4
引子：独立董事的价值
2010年度优秀独立董事
证监会是否应该规定公司必
须聘请独立董事？
能够监督内部人
能够为公司提供咨询
能够降低监管部门的责任
能够为会计教授提供赚钱机会
不能够监督内部人
不能够为公司提供咨询
不能够降低监管部门的责任
不能够为会计教授提供赚钱机会
他们真的很厉害？
可以抑制掏空、提供咨询、
扶贫教授、保护官员？
答案好像是唯一的！
推理可信吗？
事实可靠吗？
以独立董事为例
有人发现，独立董事越多（比例
或人数，或有/没有）的公司，价
值（会计指标或股价指标）越高。
该发现可
以说明独
立董事的
价值吗？
疑问1：有其他解释吗？
疑问2：穷尽了任何公司的任何时点吗？
疑问3：事实可信吗？（何谓公司价值）
以上例子中的方法论问题
 研究问题：实证性命题（是什么？为什么）与规范性
命题（怎么办？）
 检验方法：推理与感知、归纳与演绎
 计量方法：内生性
PART I:
The nature of theory
10
Nature of accounting theory
 Positive and normative propositions
 Positive propositions are concerned with how the world works. They
take the form ‘if A then B’ and are refutable
 Normative propositions are concerned with prescriptions. They take the
form ‘ given the sets of conditions C, alternative D should be chosen.
 Positive theory does not make normative propositions unimportant, and
visa.
 The objective of accounting theory is to explain and predict
accounting practice
 Explanation means providing reasons for observed practice (including
accounting and auditing practice)
 Prediction of accounting practice means that the theory predicts
unobserved accounting phenomena, which are not necessarily future
phenomena.
11
Nature of theory
 The choose of theory
 We can’s find a theory that explains and predicts all
accounting phenomena. The reason is that theories are
simplifications of reality and the world is complex and
changing.
 What determines the success and survival of a theory?


One important determinant is the value of the theory to users
We choose the theory which best holds its own in competition with
other theories; the one which, by natural selection, proves itself the
fittest to survive (Popper, 1959)
12
Robert W. Holthausena, Ross L. Watts
In Journal of Accounting and Economics 31 (2001) 3–
75
Outline
 This paper will discuss
 What’s the underlying theory of value-relevance literatures?
 Why they are not descriptive?
 What should we do?
the underlying theory
 What is the value-relevance literature?
 papers investigate the empirical relation between stock
market values (or changes in values) and particular
accounting numbers for the purpose of assessing or
providing a basis of assessing those numbers’ use or
proposed use in an accounting standard.
the underlying theory
 Three types (24-53-7/62)



Relative association studies compare the association between
stock market values (or changes in values) and alternative bottomline measures.
Incremental association studies investigate whether the accounting
number of interest is helpful in explaining value or returns (over
long windows) given other specified variables.
Marginal information content studies investigate whether a
particular accounting number adds to the information set available
to investors
the underlying theory
 Theories underlying such studies
 In direct valuation theory accounting earnings is intended to
either measure, or be highly associated with, equity market
value changes or levels (via permanent income).

Given direct valuation theory, standard setters would be
interested in the results of a study of the relative stock price
associations of alternative accounting earnings or book value of
equity measures.
the underlying theory
 In inputs-to-equity valuation theory, accounting’s role is to
provide information on inputs to valuation models that
investors use in valuing firms’ equity.

Under an inputs-to-equity valuation theory standard setters are
more likely to be interested in a study that suggests investors
could use an accounting number or a potential accounting number
in their valuation models.
the underlying theory
 In both cases, earnings would measure, or be highly
associated with equity market values or changes in equity
market values, and equity book values would measure, or be
highly associated with, equity market values.
 Essentially value-relevance studies imply accounting’s role
is to provide estimates of equity market values or linear
transformations of equity market values (direct equity
valuation).
Why are the theories not descriptive?
 The GAAP Statement
 The practice of accounting
 The valuation model
FASB statements and value-relevance
theories
 three assumptions made by value-relevance studies that
are inconsistent with FASB statements
 users and uses of financial reporting
 Whether do the stock prices adequately represent equity
investors’ use of information in valuing equity securities
 Whether do the stock price- based tests of relevance and
reliability measure relevance and reliability as defined by
FASB statements
Value relevance and GAAP
 Balance sheet
 The nature of the balance sheet

the balance sheet still consists mostly of individual, separable
assets and liabilities just as it did prior to the Securities Acts.
 The treatment of goodwill
 The evolution of the balance sheet
 There is some suggestion that other factors, in particular
regulatory and litigation concerns, also played a role in
determining the balance sheet’s nature
 write-ups
Value relevance and GAAP
 The conservatism of the income statement




Contracting
Litigation
Regulation
Tax
 Articulation of the balance sheet and the income
statement and the nature of dirty surplus
 consistent with forces other than equity valuation
influencing accounting standard setting, in particular
contracting.
 The centrality of non-valuation factors in accounting
practice
The valuation model
 Balance sheet model
 MVE =MVA +MVL + MVC;
 The presence of rents could affect the sign of the coefficient
of an asset or liability.
 Earnings model
 earnings changes are transient for extreme earnings
 The Ohlson model
 it does not allow for the existence of options
 The valuation models employed in the valuerelevance and capital markets literatures have no role
for accounting
Conclusions
 While the existing value-relevance literature is large, its
contribution to standard setting seems modest.
 The major reason is that the literature does not seek to
develop a descriptive theory of accounting and standard
setting.
 Standard setters would be aided if accounting researchers
spent more resources investigating the many forces that
shape accounting
Part II:
Evolution of accounting theory
26
Evolution of accounting theory
 Before 1950s,normative
 In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, accounting
writers were primarily concerned with describing observed
practices and with providing pedagogical rules for classifying
those practices
 After 1933 and 1934, accounting theorists became much more
concerned with prescribing how firms should report
 In the 1950-70, early economics based empirical research
 the accounting became to test hypotheses in the existing
accounting literature as the result of developments in finance.
 Particularly, the efficient markets hypothesis eventually had a
major impact on accounting research.
27
A case: Ball and Brown(1968)
 A common hypothesis underling the prescriptions in the
early 1960s accounting literature is that corporate
accounting reports are the only source of information on
the corporation.
 The argument leads to the prescription that all corporations
should be required to use the same accounting procedures
 The argument also led to criticisms of the calculation of
accounting earnings
28
 The EMH’s implication
 EMH suggests that this sole source hypothesis is unlikely to
be descriptive and the stock market is not systematically
misled by accounting earnings.
 EMH implies that if there is an empirical association
between earnings and stock prices, earning can be useful
even if they are not calculated consistently in terms of a
formal definition of income
 Underlying the EMH is competition for information
29
 The EMH’s contradictions led to researchers’ addressing
two questions
 Do changes in accounting methods and their earnings effects
systematically mislead the stock market?
 Are accounting earnings associated with stock prices or
changes in stock prices?
30
 Ball and Brown (JAR,1968) investigate the relation
between the sign of unexpected earnings and mean
abnormal rates of return
 Abnormal return measures

Market model
 Unexpected earnings measures


Random walk
Market adjusted model
31
32


The early economics based empirical studies in
accounting tested hypotheses in the existing
accounting literature and investigated the relation
between accounting numbers and economic variables
and the time series of accounting numbers
That research takes the EMH as given and views
accounting’s role as the supply of information to the
capital markets, and find that



Earnings reports supply information to the capital markets
Other accounting numbers reflect CAPM variables
Annual earnings are well described by a random walk
33
 Many of the studies assumed that the choice of accounting
techniques was irrelevant to the valuation of the firm, then
they didn’t provide an explanation for the accounting
practice
 Attempts to discriminate between the EMH and the
Mechanistic hypothesis raised the possibility that tax-neutral
accounting procedures have cash flow effects
34
 By the mid-1970s, positive accounting theory based on
economics was emerging
 The development of finance research
 Accounting researcher’s observation


What is the objective of disclosure regulation?
Why do managers care about accounting procedures?
 Implications

Dropping of the zero contracting costs assumption provided the
demand for a new positive accounting theory based on
Neoinstitutional Economics
35
 Based on the theory of property right, the accounting
practice or accounting procedures are explained in such a
way:
 Contract costs and information costs are nonzero in the
firm’s contracting process and in the political process
 Accounting is an integral part of the contracts that define the
firm.



Accounting plays an important role both in contract terms and in
monitoring those terms
Contract costs vary with different accounting procedures
Survivorship principle implies that the procedures used to
calculate accounting numbers used in those contracts are more
efficient than are alternative procedures
36
 The contract roles of accounting based on the theory of
firm
 Accounting and auditing are used in compensation and debt
contract to reduce agency costs (Jensen and Meckling, 1976)


With competition and rational expectations, the agent bears the
full agency costs, the agent has the incentive to contract for the
monitoring
The accounting and auditing is used to ensure the principals
(shareholders and debt holders) that the contract has not been
breached
37
 The role of accounting in the political
process is different from that in the market
process
 Political process is viewed as a competition for wealth
transfers
 The higher costs of concentrating property rights of
improved monitoring implies that the political process
will exhibit more opportunistic behavior than the market
process
38
 Accounting numbers are often used in the political process
as examples of a perceived crisis, through which the wealth
is transferred to the government’s officers




Asymmetric loss function
Effects of potential crises
Rate regulation
taxes
39
 three hypothesis
 Bonus plan hypothesis

Managers of firms with bonus plans are more likely to choose
accounting procedures that shift reported earnings from future
periods to the current period
 Debt/equity hypothesis
 The larger a firm’s debt/equity ratio, the more likely the firm’s
manger is to select accounting procedures that shift reported
earnings from future periods to the current period
 Size hypothesis
 the larger the firm, the more likely the manager is to choose
accounting procedures that defer reported earnings from current to
future periods
40
 Summary
 The accounting procedures used in the firm’s contracts are
an integral part of the contracting technology


the accepted set evolves as part of the contracting technology and
maximizes the firm value
Managers choose procedures that maximized their utility, and
their choices can result in wealth transfers among the contracting
parties
 Test of the theory have focused on manager’s opportunistic
behavior and not on the choice of the accepted set of
procedures
41
 However, the prediction and explanation of the accepted
set of procedures rather than managers’ choice from
among the set is likely to be productive. It would enable
better design of contracts
 A survey of accounting procedures and contracting
structures used in different industries
 Examine cross-sectional differences in contracts and
accounting procedures across countries
42
1990-2000
(Fields, Lys and Vincent,2001JAE)
 We conclude that research in the1990s made limited progress
in expanding our understanding of accounting choice
 one reason is that researchers generally focus on refining
knowledge of specific accounting choices or on narrow problems
that accounting choices are presumed to address.
 second reason is that accounting research generally fail to
distinguish appropriately between what is endogenous and
exogenous
 Finally, absent a theory, researchers apparently limit their
inquiries to the pathological, and perhaps less frequent, use of
accounting choice and ignore the major role of accounting in
normal, day-to-day situations.
43
After 2001
(Armstrong,Guay,Weber,JAE2010 )
 In the governance area, papers have begun to explore how
a commitment to financial reporting quality influences
both board structure and ownership structure, although the
causality of this relation is likely to go in both directions.
 In the executive compensation area, a large literature on
the relation between executives’ equity incentives and
financial reporting quality has emerged.
 Empirical research on the role of financial reporting in
debt contracting has grown rapidly in recent years.
44
Accounting research in China
45
Part III:
Accounting Research on China
46
节选自《制度、治理与会计》第一章
李增泉、孙铮著
（格致出版社、上海三联书店、上海人
民出版2009年出版）
47
提纲
 引言
 理论框架
 文献综述
 未来研究方向
 结论
48
引言
 本文的研究问题
 中国的会计问题应如何进行设问？



讨论分析框架
综述国内文献
提出未来研究方向
 本文的基本假设
 实证会计的目的在于解释和预测会计实践（Watts and Zimmerman,
1986），因此中国实证会计的目的在于解释和预测中国的会计实践
 并非综述所有会计文献，仅针对需要的部分实证文献
 本文的基本观点
 未来的研究应基于中国的实践，运用产权理论分析制度与会计之间
的关系。
49
为何是产权理论，而不是代理理论
 代理理论（例如，Jensen and Meckling,1976; Fama and
Jensen(1983a,b）)的贡献
 是产权理论的一个具体模型，具体化了代理成本的内容
 分析了组织结构，特别是所有权结构与代理成本的关系
 中国的特殊性
 代理理论隐含着合约双方的自由交易，但在中国很多的企业行为与
政府较多的参与经济活动高度相关；国家与公民之间的交易并非都
是自由选择的结果
 理论没有对错，只从简单和有效性两个角度予以选择，因此不选代
理理论，并非指代理理论在中国不能用，而是指用合约理论和产权
理论更有效，因为选择产权理可以方便地将中国制度变量纳入研究
模型
50
产权理论
 产权理论的方法论基础(Alchian, 1950，Friedman,
1953；张五常，2001)
 理性人
 效用最大化
 货币收益
 非货币收益
 均衡
 基本内容
 产权与交易成本
 产权的内容及可转让的重要性（Coase, 1960; Alchian,1965)
51
产权理论

影响产权转让的因素



产权的界定与执行(Demsetz, 1964)
计量的重要性（Alchian and Demsetz, 1972; Cheung, 1983)
资产专有性（Williamson,1979; Klein etal. 1978; Alchian, 1984)
 组织结构内生于交易成本
 代理成本与所有权结构（Jensen and Meckling, 1976 ）
 代理成本与企业组织形式（ Fama and Jensen, 1983a,b；Demsetz,
1983）
 代理成本、信息转让成本与企业分权结构（Jensen and Meckling,
1992)
 政府管制、交易成本与组织结构
 利益集团特征与管制的形成（Stigler, 1971)
 管制对被管制者的影响（Cheung, 1974; Krueger, 1974)
 管制对管制者的影响（Shleifer and Vishny, 1993)
52
Illustration: Specialized assets
(KCA,1978;Williamson, 1979; 1983; KL,1981;
Alchian, 1984;GH,1986)
• Definition
– the opportunity cost of which is much lower in its best alternative
use or by alternative users should the original transaction be
prematurely terminated (Williamson, 1985)
– The identity of the parties is important for such idiosyncratic
investment
– There are four types of asset specificity
•
•
•
•
site specificity
physical asset specificity
human asset specificity
dedicated asset specificity
53
Illustration: Specialized assets
• Consequence
– After a specific investment is mad and appropriable
specialized quasi rents are created, the possibility of
opportunistic behavior is very real
– Implicit and explicit contracting and policing costs are
positively related to the extent of appropriable specialized
quasi rents
– Both parties have an incentive to sustain the relationship
rather than to permit it to unravel
54
Illustration: Specialized assets
• Governance
– Long-term contract
•
•
•
An implicit type of long-term contract that employs a market, by
offering to the potential cheater a future premium, are generally
used to governance the idiosyncratic investment
The premium stream is a normal rate of return on the “reputation”
or “brand-name” capital created by the firm by the initial specific
investments or collateral bonds (i.e., hostage)
Reliance on reciprocal business relationships and group
enforcement mechanisms is more likely where governmental
enforcement of contracts is weaker
55
Illustration: Specialized assets
– Vertical integration
•
•
•
Any internal coordination or other ownership costs are not
systematically related to the extent of the appropriable specialize
quasi rent of the physical asset owned
Integration by common or joint ownership is more likely , the
higher the appropriable specialized quasi rents of the assets
involved
When it is costly to list all specific rights over assets in the
contract, it may be optimal to let one party purchase all residual
rights, whose investment is more important to the productivity
(Grossman and Hart, 1986)
56
57
三个层面的研究
 组织结构的经济后果
 例如，不同的治理结构（董事会、所有权）如何影响企
业绩效？
 产权对组织结构的影响
 例如，公有产权和私有产权的董事会结构有何差异？
 产权的形成原因
 例如，法律制度如何演进等？
58
如何将会计纳入产权理论模型
 会计的实质
 计量


计量的内容
计量的质量
 会计（包括审计）与交易成本的关系（Jensen, 1983;
Watts and Zimmerman, 1986)
 签约前：信号作用
 签约后：监督作用
59
三个层面的会计研究
 了解会计选择的现状
 了解会计如何被使用，即契约的内容
 制度的影响
 会计准则的影响
 了解会计选择的经济逻辑
 刚性制度约束
 交易成本最小

不同的会计选择对应不同的交易成本，公司选择的会计政策
可以最小化交易成本
60
中国已有的研究
 第一类研究：哪些因素影响会计的特征
 会计特征变量
 盈余管理，用以下指标衡量


信息透明度，用以下指标衡量


净资产收益率的分布、非经常性损益、非正常应计项目等
ERC、Basu系数、或者作者自己计算的信息披露指数
具体会计政策，主要是资产减值政策
 影响因素
 政策法规，例如配股政策、退市政策等
 内部治理结构，用以下指标衡量

董事会、股权交易性质、最终控制人特征、机构投资者，债权人、或
者以上变量的综合指标
61
中国已有的研究
 较多的审计方面的研究


审计的作用
 主要考察事务所规模、审计委员会等对审计质量的影响
审计师的选择动机
 从大小股东以及股东和经理之间代理冲突的角度进行分析，得
到的结论也不一致
62
中国已有的研究2
 第二类研究：制度变量如何影响会计的有用性
 制度变量


所有权性质
市场化程度
 会计的有用性
 薪酬合约
 债务合约
 研究发现
 会计信息的合约有用性受到以上制度变量的影响
63
对已有研究的总体评价
 无论在会计特征还是治理变量的选择上都受西方文献
的广泛影响。这种范式的缺陷体现为：
 西方重要的变量在中国不一定重要，中国重要的变量不
一定在西方重要，因此，以西方文献为基础，可能无法
真正找到中国重要的变量
 由于以西方文献为基础，理论分析通常都是直接套用，
忽略了中国特有制度的影响，从而无法对相关发现，即
使是与西方一致的发现，给出合理的解释
64
未来的研究方向1
 考察在中国哪些会计现象是重要的？
 所谓重要，是指会计信息被使用，并对契约结构产生影
响。因此，包含考察具体的会计特征和合约内容两个方
面
 在描述会计的特征时，综合指标和具体的会计政策各有
利弊，但在中国现阶段，具体会计政策的考察更迫切


综合指标的模型所依赖的条件在中国不一定成立
很少文献考察我国企业对某类具体会计政策的选择
65
未来的研究方向2
 哪些中国制度变量影响会计的主要特征
 制度环境
 政府管制



不完善的市场机制




国有企业以及政府部门的人事任命
各种经济资源的垄断配置
法律体系
资本市场
产品市场等
渐进式的转轨过程和财政分权机制


正式制度多变
不同级别的政府、不同产权性质的企业的相互博弈
66
未来的研究方向2
 制度安排
 正式制度安排
 控制权配置的模糊性
 上市公司的控制权理论上属于政府，可授权企业高管，事
实上可能为官员和企业高管所控制
 政府的多头管理，法规的相互冲突
 非正式的制度安排
 与正式的制度安排相互影响
 深厚的“家”文化
 人际关系网络，例如信任
 制度如何影响会计行为？以及如何受制度的影响？例如，
寻租、关系。
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结论
 实证会计研究的目的在于解释和预测会计实践，
运用产权理论，可以比代理理论更方便地将中国
的制度变量纳入研究模型，因此，在解释中国的
会计实践时，产权理论更有效
 中国已有的会计研究，在选择变量时主要受到西
方文献的影响，从而可能无法找到在中国真正重
要的变量，并且通常无法对其结果给出合理而完
善的分析
 未来的研究应集中在以下两个方面：
 中国重要的会计特征，特别是具体的会计政策选择，
 对这些特征产生影响的重要的制度变量
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A case
Infrastructure Requirements for an Economically Efficient
System of Public Financial Reporting and Disclosure
RAY BALL （2001）
Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services: 2001
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 Findings
 Even when Chinese firms report under international
accounting standards and their financial statements are
certified by an international audit firm, their reported
incomes are not timely in reflecting economic losses.
 This result confirms the futility of implanting exogenously
developed accounting standards into a complex,
complementary commercial infrastructure.
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 Explanation
 At this point in its economic reform and development, many
features of China’s institutional environment militate against
high-quality disclosure, despite state-mandated ASBE and
IAS. They include
 extensive guanxi networks that inform parties privately, not
publicly;
 political influence of the Chinese government and army;
 links between tax and financial reporting;
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 government-mandated listing rules that require companies to
be profitable (so companies hide losses);
 extensive non-arm’s-length transacting between listed
former state-owned enterprises and current or former stateowned enterprises (the government effectively controls both
sides of the transactions, which allows income to be
manipulated for political objectives);
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 un-quantified off-balance-sheet liabilities (for employee
housing, schooling, or health care);
 a severe shortage of qualified accountants;
 lack of auditor independence (domestic auditors frequently
are former internal accountants in the companies they now
are auditing);
 the essential absence of litigation risk for managers and
auditors who hide losses.
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 Suggestions for Future Research
 The role of accounting as the part of the internal control
system, e.g.



the quality of internal information reported to business unit
managers,
the relation between internal and public financial reporting,
and the role of independent and reliable financial accounting in
mitigating bribery and fraud (including asset expropriation by
managers, employees, and influential shareholders).
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 The role of accounting information as an mechanism of
corporate governance, e.g.,


timely incorporation of economic losses on financial statements
reduces agency costs by more effectively monitoring managers
who otherwise would continue their loss-making investments and
strategies
In general, the quality of financial reporting and disclosure affects
the production and investment decisions of managers, and the
cash flows they generate, in addition to the capital costs at which
those cash flows are discounted.
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 the economics of accounting standards. E.g.,




why standards exist,
what determines the extent to which they are followed,
what are the costs of falsely signaling the quality of one’s
standards
why standards vary across firms, industries, countries, and time.
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Challenge
&
Opportunity
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