Sentinel 2 Preparatory Symposium
23-27 April 2012, ESA- ESRIN, Frascati, Italia
User Consultation AGRICULTURE
Sentinel 2 in the framework
of MARS Activities
Forewords
• Following official presentation made by MARS (AGRICULTURE S.1)
But dropping, to avoid repetition, general information and illustrations
– on MARS or on GEOGLAM initiative
• Focus is kept on 2 main operational programs
1 - Controls With Remote Sensing
2 - MARS crop monitoring and yield forecasting
• Crop monitoring activities in Africa are not developed here, as
addressed by other speakers
• and present first developments on possible use of S2 , and contribute
to the Seed Questions of ESA…
• This includes personal thinking, vision or questions to feed the debate
NB: The views expressed are purely those of the writer and may not in any circumstances
be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission
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1 - Controls with Remote Sensing (CwRS)
• Verification at parcel + farm level of the claims for CAP subsidies (> 55
Bio Euros in 2011)
– Eligibility of land use and cross-compliance with Good Agricultural and
Environmental conditions (GAECS)
• Using both Very High Resolution (<= 1 m) and several High resolution
images (5-30 m)
• A number of options within a EU common framework of standards and
technical tolerances managed by JRC
• CWRS are part on objective On-the-Spots Checks + used to assess the
quality of the Digital Reference parcels (LPIS)
in 2011: 340 000 Farmers / 430 control zones (Geo. Clusters)
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Image provision for CwRS today
2011 Campaign :
Control sites and
imagery
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6
Image provision for CwRS today
Evolution of image acquisitions for the CwRS
Description
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*
2011*
Planned HR sites
124
149
183
192
227
244
249
278
286
Total no. images
acquired
VHR imagery
680
690
690
693
657
538
655
671
735
37
71
161
181
228
264
285
368
426
X11
12
50
126
127
150
160
174.7
224
242
X 20
12
22
24
23
24
24
25
27
27
1,9
3,3
5,0
5,3
5,6
5,4
6,0
6,7
7,05
HR imagery
Planned VHR sites
Area (1000km2)
acquired
MS participating
(HR and/or VHR)
Total purchased
(Mio Euros)
* Including LPIS QA zones
X 2,3
X3,7
CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020
• CAP
reform after 2013 ?
•Horizontal Regulations “CAP Towards 2020” foresees
continuation of CwRS as part of on the Spot Checks (as
IACS and LPIS maintenance)
• EUROPEAN COURT OF AUDITORS (Press Release- 10
Nov. 11)
“ For Agriculture and natural resources the estimated error rate
was 2.3%. The direct payments covered by IACS, which accounted
for almost €40 billion of total spending of €56.8 billion in this area,
were found to be free from material error “
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CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020
• New controls requirements linked to the 3 compulsorily
“Greening Payments”
Windbreak hedge
– Crop diversification
– Permanent Grassland
– Ecological focus areas …
Protected isolated
trees
Riparian forest buffer
Area of high natural value
Filter strip
• → Clear increase of HR + multi-date
• But also
Protected permanent pasture
– Trend of smaller control sites, Some MS using 2 x VHR
– No increase of budget ….
Expected decrease of VHR Costs due to competitive market
Possibility of increase of HR - Advantage of RedEdge also identifed
on World View 2 (G. Peroni, 2010)
Warning : Possible CONFLICT with present MARKET
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CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020
3 more promising applications to be developed
1 - Wall to wall Control or pre-control ? (Risk analysis)
– Taking benefit of large swath of S2
– More as a tool for risk analysis - targeting control sites
Feasible but not in the present “air du temps” (simplification policy)
Key Contribution of Sentinel 2
Large Swath for wall to wall inventory
Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( montlhy?) or capture
key management practices ?
May allow real rotation control (VS Diversification) - regulatory issues
and possible confusion
Technical Challenges: none if simple automatic classif/ LPIS vector
data volumes and more complex process treatment (buffer, object)
Initiative by MS ? More exploratory or focused on spec case?
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CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020
3 more promising applications to be developed
2 - Impact assessment of the CAP and of its greening
– Combining both IACS, statistics, EO wall to wall coverage
– Addressing both first and second CAP Pillar
Technical Challenges: indicators ? Appropriate regional scale? Objective
methodologies ? Mapping baseline ( i.e 2013) !
Key Contribution of Sentinel 2
Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( monthly?) or capture
management practices ?
Large Swath for wall to wall for inventory
Possible training / validation by IACS Geospatial and CWRS VHR
Sample
Road Map : Pilot and demonstration in some MS
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CwRS Future evolutions 2014 -2020
3 more promising applications to be developed
3 - Mapping – monitoring products in support to FAS (Farm Advisory
Systems) ?
– Contextual info and understanding of rural landscape dynamique
– Appropriate recommendations on farm land management
– New measures related to 2nd pillar CC,
Key Contribution of Sentinel 2 IDEM
Multidate to characterise semi natural features ( montlhy?) or capture
management practices ?
Large Swath for wall to wall for inventory
Possible training / validation by IACS Geospatial and CWRS VHR
Sample
Road Map : Pilot and demonstration in some MS
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MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting
•
Developed since 25 years based on EO + Agromet crop
development models
Covering both AREA and YIELD components, with schematically
•
–
AREA Estimates = (Very) High Resolution + ground survey AFS
–
YIELD = Low Resolution 10 d + Crop Models wall to wall + GRID
•
Semi- deterministics models + convergence of evidence
analysis for Yield + deviation from normal conditions
•
In the European Context (respective contribution to inter-annual
variability, other sources of information available, STATS, CAP)
–
–
–
Focus on Yield with Models using Agromet and EO indicators
Area estimate by Trend function or provided by Eurostat.
Little developments on area estimates since 15 Years
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MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting
Area Estimates: MARS Regional inventories (1988-1996)
•
Adapting to the EU the USDA method
Ground data
•
AFS with square segments were cheaper to
implement than segments with physical boundaries,
for similar quality of estimates
+
images
•
Images used for Stratification
•
+ Regression estimator i.e classified images (1-2
Dates) as ancillary variable
•
Relative efficiency lower than in the US (more
complex landscape).
Cost-efficiency with Landsat TM slightly below
threshold in the 90’s
Expected S2 improvements: Large Swath multi-date !
•
•
Estimates
MARS Crop Monitoring & yield Forecasting
Rapid estimates of crop area change (1992-97) (“Activity B”)
• Pure remote sensing approach
– Sample of 60 sites of 40x40 km
– 4 images per site every year (mainly SPOT)
– Some ground data of the previous years (to train
CAPI and/or image classification)
• Good results for dominant crops:
– Ex. <1.5 % error for total EU cereals area, despite
rather poor sampling
• But the margin for subjectivity was around ± 20%
• Much “weaker” results when the changes were
difficult to forecast
MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements
• Ongoing 2012
Modelling new crops Rye and Triticale
Monthly Bulletin Calendar as inputs to AMIS – G20
• 2013-14
Development of Quantitative Pasture monitoring
•
•
Possible feasibility study in 2012/13 to implement of methods for
quantitative pasture analysis…
Need of mapping info describing appropriate typology and management
of EU pasture
• 2020:
Towards Global Monitoring capacities ???
GLOBCAST Feasibility study (2010-2011)
MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements
General objectives of GLOBCAST
• Monitor the impact of weather in
main grain producing areas
4 Zones of the world
• Produce short-term forecasts
1. Russia, Black Sea and CIS
(wheat, barley, maize)
4. North America
(wheat, barley,
soybean, maize,
rapeseed)
3. South America
(wheat, soybean,
sugarcane, maize)
2. Asia (China, India)
& Australia
(wheat, rice)
G 20 initiatives GEO-GLAM and AMIS
•
The EC, Member of the G20, signed the G20 Action
plan on Agriculture price volatility
•
DG AGRI strongly supports the 2 Initiatives on market
transparency
• EU timely reporting for AMIS and Improve information on
stocks
AGRI front line
• Contribute to GEO –GLAM, by sharing MARS data and model
outputs with other stakeholders, in particular FAO GIEWS
JRC H04
• Position included in the EC Report to EU Council and Parliament
(August 2011)
•
GEOGLAM has a strong interest to complete the overall
action plan by Capacity Building in countries at risks
•
Uncertainties and challenges linked to budgeting and
governance
MARS Crop Monitoring Future requirements
Main outcomes of GLOBCAST Feasibility
• Definition of various system configurations in term component and level
(basic to intermediate) and possible road maps
•Overall funding and deployment strategies under discussion with DG
AGRI (2014-2020)
• Increase role of EO Low resolution data // ground meteo stations
• Mainly a analysis / decision support system for yield
– Main running costs are related to staff
– key requirement of experienced analysts
• Area Estimates becomes a major component
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Potential S2 Development on Area estimates ?
• Best approach: USDA NASS Cropland Data Layer (CDL)
• “Census by Satellite” Operational Annually Program - cover US major
crops and regions
Provide timely, accurate, useful estimates
 Measurable error, Unbiased/independent estimator
 State, District, County
Deliver in-season remote sensing acreage estimates
 For June, August, September, and October
 Official USDA Reports
 use of bi-monthly DMC Deimos-1 & UK2 & Landsat 5 & 7
(see PECORA presentation)
 Wide public data dissemination
The ideal example, but CDL relies on heavy NASS AF ground surveys
Courtesy from Larry Beard
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Potential S2 Development on Area estimates
• Since 3 years, MARS involved in Pilots studies in Ukraine, Spain, Italy , China
(with VITO – Geoland2) MALAWI (with GMFS) or MOROCCO
– Multi-date hard and soft classification, un-mixing, neural network…
– Common evaluation and user utility assessment ongoing
• Need of a comprehensive EU R&D work program
– In Europe:
• How to use existing point survey (LUCAS,IACS admin data ?)
• Demonstrate the added value of mapping products and small area estimate
– Outside Europe:
• Light point survey ? Substitution of ground data by VHR data sample? Use
of Wiki and Google?
• Different combination of Satellite and spatial resolution…
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Potential S2 Development on Area estimates
•Possible image requirements
– S2 Resolution OK
– S2 Swath = Key Improvement compared to Landsat /SPOT
• See for DEIMOS USDA NASS ( Pecora ppt)
• in EU Larger than 300 km raise other issue (climatic gradient)
– Likely Improvement by RedEdge for crop discrimination
– Level 1 C TBC? Radiometry and geometry a priori less critical
– Mutidate ? Basically montly or bi monthly target along cropping
campaign … ie circa 10 dates
– A Priori Wall to wall coverage of Agricultural Zones
• ?? But possible sampling if seed for Low Mid- Resolution un-mixing ???
– According to context and dynamic
• Yearly to 5 Yearly
• In case of 5 Yearly – Possible light method yearly
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Potential S2 Development on Area estimates
•
Key issues are
Overall design and optimisation of “ground data”
1.
•
•
2.
Field survey design (segments, points)
Possible substitution with CAPI- VHR
Statistical estimators area (regression or Calibration estimators)
•
Difference indicators in multi annual
3.
Cloud cover (not critical) but to be assess // Optimisation of
management of single image // compositing products)
4.
user assessment for pluri-annual strategy
5.
Overall coherency and coordination with UN “GLOBAL STRATEGY to
IMPROVE AGRICULTURE and RURAL STATISTICS” !
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Potential S2 Development on Yield modelling
• Huge potential / expectations from relevant Bio Parameters for crop specific,
time profile (5- 10 Days)
– Clarify revisit cycle, angle and radiometric issues, Need of Level 2 top of
atmosphere, produced with state of the art and agreed by Research + users
But DATA VOLUME – COMPUTING TIME for data assimilation / running crop
models !Min x 250 000 factor to pass from present 10 -25 km Grids to 10 -
20 m !! What are the best trade off ?
Medium term
Feeding present agro met grid models with local crop specific parameters ?
Designing ASAP an EU panel site sample? A Global one, links with JECAM ?
(Very) Long Term ???
Change of crop monitoring paradigm? +/- complete restructuring: Area and
yield components observed on a coherent (same) sample ????
Consolidation of R&D results, need of a minimum archive, lots of S.W.O.T analysis
and engineering …..
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Summary conclusions
Huge technical capacities and potential development for crop monitoring
Absolute need of operational ground segment and (pre+ post)
processing facilities with Free data policy
Historical opportunities to build an EU - US coordination and effective
inter-operability S2 – LDCM, and ensure an EU contribution to Global
Crop monitoring Capacities, in particular for Africa.
• AREA Estimates and mapping are the most immediate applications
• Strong potential to feed present AGROMET GRID MODELS with S2 State
variable ( design of sites sample ? )
• S2 may open the way to radical change in overall system design in
long term … Need to foster present research and further develop vision to
prepare possible 3rd generation crop monitoring systems (post 2020 – 30)
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Thanks for your attention !
Olivier LEO JRC H04 Unit
with inputs from
Bettina BARRUTH, Philippe LOUDJANI, Javier GALLEGO, Hervé KERDILES, Paer
AASTRAND
20 years of
in support to the implementation and monitoring of
Common Agricultural Policy
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