Equity Derivatives Dave Engebretson Quantitative Analyst Citigroup Derivative Markets, Inc. January 21, 2011 University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Contents Vanilla Options Terminology Pricing Methods Risk and Hedging Spreads Exotic Options Questions/Discussion University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Options Terminology Call/put: a call permits the holder to buy a share of stock for the strike price; a put permits the holder to sell a share of stock for the strike price Spot price (S): the price of the underlying stock Strike price (K): the price for which a share of stock may be bought/sold Expiration date: the final date on which an option may be exercised American/european: european-style options may only be exercised on their expiration dates; american-style options may be exercised on any date through (and including) their expiration dates Example: an IBM $100 american call expiring on 20-Jan-2012 permits its holder to buy a share of IBM for $100 on any business day up to, and including, 20-Jan2012 University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Volatility Volatility (s) is a measure of how random a product is, usually defining a one-year standard deviation The left picture shows low volatility - the path is very predictable The right picture shows high volatility - the path cannot be well predicted University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Options 101 Put payoff Call payoff T=0 Spot price Spot price Put payoff Call payoff T>0 Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Options 102 Convolving the probability distribution with the final payoff gives today's fair price for the option. Higher volatility gives higher value because, while it samples more lower spots, it also samples more higher spots. Different strikes correspond to shifting the red payoff curve horizontally; different spot prices correspond to shifting the blue probability distribution s >> 0 Probability Probability s~0 Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Limiting Values Put payoff Call payoff T=0 Spot price American call >= 0 >= S – K (intrinsic) Spot price American put >= 0 >= K – S (intrinsic) European options can be worth less than intrinsic value Why? University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Limiting Values If S << K and s = 0 then a european put will be worth K – S at expiration Consider the following scenario: Buy the european put for K e-rt - S, buy a share of stock for S, pay interest on the borrowed difference of K e-rt At expiration exercise the put, receiving K and closing my position, and use the K to repay the loan of K e-rt Net profit: 0 European call >= 0 >= S – K e-rt (intrinsic) European put >= 0 >= K e-rt – S (intrinsic) University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Limiting Values Why must american calls be worth at least S – K? If an american call is worth less than S – K, I could do the following: 1. Buy the call for C < S – K 2. Sell a share simultaneously for S 3. Immediately exercise the call (american), paying K to receive a share I then have no net shares (sold one, exercised into one) and my total cash intake is -C + S – K Is this advantageous? ? -C + S – K >? 0 S–K>C This was our initial assumption, so we have an arbitrage University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Pricing Methods Closed-form solutions for option prices apply only in certain cases (european options without dividends, etc.) Iterative solutions can handle far more types of derivatives, but cost more in calculation time Monte-Carlo pricing for some very exotic derivatives – this converges very slowly and introduces randomness into pricing Speed Capability Closed-form Iterative Monte-Carlo Modern computing and parallel processing mean fewer resources devoted to building faster iterative or closed-form solutions University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Black-Scholes European options without dividends can be priced in closed form using this model C S N d Ke N d rt P Ke 1 N d 1 N d S ln S r s T K 2 d rt 2 s T University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Binomial Trees Link the value at one unknown point (spot1, time1) with values at two known points (spot2a, time2) and (spot2b, time2) Several choices of pu, pd, Su=spot2b/spot1, Sd=spot2a/spot1 exist, each with advantages and disadvantages (spot2a, time2) (spot2b, time2) val2a val2b pu pd val1 (spot1, time1) University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Pricing an Option with a Binomial Tree 2. Evolve the first timestep T=0 Call payoff 1. Discretize the payoff at expiration, choose normal vs. log-normal evolution 3. Repeat step 2 to cover the entire lifetime of the option 1 Spot price 2 Spot price T = 2Dt Call payoff Call payoff T = Dt 3 Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Monte-Carlo 1.4 Generate a multitude of paths consistent with desired distribution and dynamics 1.3 1.2 For each path, compute the value of the option 1.1 1 Appropriately average values for all the paths 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Greeks: best to compute with perturbations to existing paths. Why? Slow convergence, but able to handle just about any type of option; may obtain slightly different results when recalculating the same option University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Risk Greeks for call, plotted vs. K / S Delta Gamma, Vega Theta Rho University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Risk ATM greeks, plotted vs. time Call Delta Gamma Vega Theta Rho University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Hedging Delta - shares of stock Rho - interest rate futures Gamma, Vega Gamma, Vega, Theta - other options Gamma, Theta ~ 1 T Vega ~ T Theta University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Spreads A spread is a group of trades done together Netting of risk Often a cheaper way to take specific positions All spreads have at least two legs, but can have many Payoff Some spreads are listed on exchanges, many are OTC Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Combo A combo is a long call with a short put at the same strike Payoff Combo payoff The payoff replicates a forward Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Call Spread A call spread is a long call of one strike with a short call of another strike Payoff Call spread payoff These can be bullish or bearish depending which strike is bought Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Straddle A straddle is a long call with a long put at the same strike Payoff Straddle payoff The payoff is a bet on volatility Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Butterfly A butterfly is a combination of three equally spaced strikes in 1/-2/1 ratios Payoff Butterfly payoff Butterflies pay off when the stock ends near the middle strike, price is probability Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Put-Call Parity Compare a combo’s payoff with the payoff of a share of stock minus a bond Payoff Combo payoff Call – Put = S – K e-rt Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Exotic Option Types American - not solvable in closed form, so are they exotic? Asian – payoff depends not on terminal spot, but on average spot over defined time period Bermudan – can only be exercised on predetermined dates, so something between european and american Binary (digital) – all-or-nothing depending on a condition being met Cliquet (compound) – an option to deliver an option. Call on call, call on put, etc. Knock-in/knock-out (barrier) – options that come into/go out of existence when a condition is met, such as spot reaching a predetermined value Variance/volatility/dividend swap – an agreement to exchange money based on realized variance, volatility, or dividends University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 American Options Use a binomial tree, raise values to intrinsic at each time step Raise this point to intrinsic and exercise! If an option is raised to intrinsic, exercise it Non-dividend calls don’t get exercised Call payoff Call payoff Bermudan – same, but only raise to intrinsic at exercise dates Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Binary Options Call spread payoff Binary option payoff Start with a call spread, bring the strikes closer together, and increase the number of units of call spread Spot price Spot price University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011 Questions? University of Minnesota, Jan. 21, 2011