Measurement of Poverty and Social Exclusion in Japan Aya K. Abe National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Tokyo, Japan Second Townsend Memorial Conference, Measuring Poverty : The State of Art, 22-23 January 2010 Poverty Rates of OECD countries(Mid 2000s) Poverty Rates of OECVD Countries (Mid 2000s) : Income measure Data: OECD(2008) Growing Unequal? Political Context Upto 2008 :Denial stage Oct. 2009: Announcement of Relative Poverty Rate Jan. 18, 2011: Social Inclusion Special Team established under Prime Minister’s Office From Research community Up to 2000’s: some qualitative research on special risk groups, such as homeless population, singlemothers, etc. From 2000’s: Some attempts to calculate extent of poverty among general population using large surveys (mostly income) (Abe 2005, Komamura 2005, etc.) Brief Introduction of my work 2003 Necessities Survey (n=1350) 2003 Social Living Survey (n=1520) Asking general public what is “necessary” Using above items regarded “necessary”, asked who are deprived of those items + some social network questions 2006 Living Conditions Survey (n=584) Asked Deprivation and social exclusion; more emphasis on social exclusion Sample limited to one geographical area near Tokyo 2008 Social Living Survey (n=1021) 2003 and 2006 survey questions combined, covered all areas of Japan 2008 Necessities Survey for Children Methodology:Defining Essentials and Identifying Who is Deprived Is it essential? Yes Do you have it? No Yes No Do not want it Cannot afford it Socially Perceived Necessities in Japan Data The 2003 Necessities Survey Sample of 2000 adults (20 years +), randomly chosen from residents’ register all over Japan 1350 responses (response rate = 67.5%) For 28 items, asked respondents whether they thought it is “necessary” to live normally in Japan % of support for items %answering "Definitely " wtd Items Multiple bedrooms (for families larger than a couple) Celebrating a birthday Pocket money Bicycle (or tricycle) Mobile phone (incl. PHS) Items 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 T o be able t o se e a do c t o r To be a bl e to s ee a denti s t Tel ephone Pens i on premi ums to prepa re f or reti rement Ins ura nce f or dea th, a cci dents , i l l nes s , etc. E duca ti on upto H i g h s chool l ev el F a mi l y 's ow n ba th ( i nc. s how er) H ea ters /Cool ers ( a i r condi ti oner etc.) B ook s , ma g a zi nes f or chi l dren F a mi l y 's ow n toi l et F a mi l y 's ow n k i tchen H ot w a ter hea ter ( f or k i tchen a nd w a s h ba s i n) A ttendi ng rel a ti v e's w eddi ng s , f unera l s , etc. ( i ncl udi ng g i v i ng g i f ts ) Mi cro-w a v e ov en Tra ns porta ti on cos t to s ee f ri ends , f a mi l y , rel a ti v es . N ew underw ea r a t l ea s t once a y ea r Sepa ra te bedroom f rom the l i v i ng s pa ce Pa rents pa rti ci pa ti ng s chool ev ent To be a bl e to s a v e ev ery months ev en a l i ttl e Speci a l s ui ts f or occa s i ons ( f unera l s , w eddi ng s , etc.) Suits for work and interviews 88.6% 86.8% 86.6% 74.0% 71.9% 71.7% 67.1% 66.9% 66.8% 65.8% 64.9% 64.5% 58.5% 57.9% 57.8% 57.5% 56.9% 55.8% 54.4% 50.3% 49.5% 22 23 24 25 26 27 New Year's celebration(such as Osechi - a special meal for the new year's day) 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Xmas present Child's own room Education upto University or Junior university Fruits at least once a day Socializing with others through sports, hobbies Video player New clothes and shoes every year (not a second-hand) 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Toys such as sports equipment and games Participating neighborhood clubs, child clubs, Eating out 2,3 times a month Lessons (hobby, sports, etc.) Family trip of more than 1 night at least once a year Access to the internet Juku (private tutoring classes) Walkman, CD/MD Player, etc. 48.1% 47.2% 45.8% 44.7% 40.7% 35.7% 33.9% 33.7% 33.7% 33.6% 33.4% 31.5% 28.4% 26.1% 23.5% 22.6% 21.9% 20.8% 18.9% 16.2% 14.7% % those who think the item is essential Item JAPAN UK Toys (that most of other kids have, such as dolls, blocks, soccer ball, baseball etc.) 12.4% 84%* Bicycle (including second-hand) 20.9% 55% At least one pair of shoes (not secondhand) 40.2% 94% Clothes (not second-had) 33.7% 70% Own books 51.2% 89% 86.1% Australia 94.7%** To be able to go to dentists (including check-ups) * UK question: “Toys (e.g. dolls, teddies) ** Australia : Community Understanding of Poverty and Social Exclusion Survey 2006 in Saunders et al. (2007) Data: Japan Child Necessity Survey 2008 in Abe (2008), UK Office for National Statistics Omnibus Survey 1999, in Gordon et al. (2000) % supporting items: 1st vs. 5th quintile (income) 図5 「絶対に必要」とした人の割合:等価世帯所得 % saying “Definitely required”: 1st quintile vs. 5th 第1五分位 vs. 第5五分位 quintile 1 0.9 quintile (richest) 第5五分位(最高) th 5 Pension Insurance 0.8 0.7 Savings 0.6 Family Own Toilet 0.5 0.4 Internet 0.3 0.2 Family Trip 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 第1五分位(最貧) 1st quintile (poorest) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 % supporting items: by education % saying “Definitely required”: College中卒 gradsvs.vs.大卒 図9 「絶対に必要」とする人の割合: Mandatory education only Suits Dentist Mobile Internet 大卒 College or above ( 12 +) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 telephone Wedding Neighborhood clubs 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 中卒 Junior high school (9 yrs of education) 0.9 1 % supporting items: Women vs. Men % saying “Definitely required”: Women 女性 図17 「絶対に必要」とする人の割合: men vs. vs. women 男性 女性 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Microwave Separate bedroom fruits Mobile Video player 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Men男性 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 % supporting items: by location Living in Village 町村 % saying図19 “Definitely required”: those living in 「絶対に必要」とする人の割合: village vs. those living in large cities 大都市 vs. 町村 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 wedding 寝室と食卓が別 冠婚葬祭 Dentist 冷房・暖房 Multiple bedrooms 複数の寝室 専用浴室 Neighborhood clubs 町内会などへの参加 Family’s own bathroom ビデオ 家族旅行 Family trip Internet インターネット 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 13大都市 Living in Largest 13 cities 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 % supporting items: by Age % saying 図15 “Definitely required”: Above 70 years old 「絶対に必要」とする人の割合: telephone vs. Below 30 years old vs. 70歳以上 30歳未満 1 0.9 0.8 70 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Doctor Above 医者 電話 Wedding 冠婚葬祭 70歳以上 years old Neighborhood clubs 果物 地域社会に参加 年金保険 冷暖房 寝室と食卓別 正月祝 死亡保険 新しい下着 複数の寝室 貯金 スーツ 趣味の交流 家族旅行 Video pl. 外食 携帯電話 Mobile ビデオデッキ インターネット Internet 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Below 30 years old 30歳未満 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Patterns of Deprivation in Japan Data 2003 Social Living Survey Sample of 2000 adults (20 years +), randomly chosen from residents’ register all over Japan 1520 responses (response rate = %) Table 1 Socially Perceived Necessities and Their Diffusion Rate Socially Perceived Item Diffusion Rate Household Durables Social Activities Social Security Housing Conditions Deprivation rate Microwave oven 98.4% 1.6% Heating and cooling equipment (air conditioners, gas or electric heaters, kotatsu, etc.) 99.1% 0.9% Water heating equipment 96.4% 3.6% Attending family and relative's wedding/funerals/etc. (including travel and gift expenses) 97.2% 2.8% Telephone Attire for special occasions (reifuku) New underwear more than once a year 97.9% 97.2% 92.2% 2.1% 2.8% 7.8% Being able to go to a doctor when needed 98.2% 1.8% Being able to go to a dentist when needed 97.2% 2.8% Being able to enrol in life, disability or sickness insurance 91.9% 8.1% Being able to save for old age Being able to save money every month 93.9% 75.0% 6.1% 25.0% Have a toilet for the family's own use (not shared with other dwellings) 98.8% 1.2% Have a kitchen for the family's own use (not shared with other dwellings) 98.9% 1.1% Have a bathroom for the family's own use (not shared with other dwellings) 97.8% 2.2% Have a bedroom different from living (eating) room 95.0% 5.0% *Diffusion rate = the rate of those possessing the item among the entire sample minus those who do not want to possess the item * Deprivation rate = 100% - Diffusion rate Table 2 Distribution of Deprivation Score Score (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 samle size Average Std.Dev. n 990 312 80 61 27 17 13 10 6 2 1 1 1520 0.713 1.403 % 65.1% 20.5% 5.3% 4.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% % lacking Accumulative more than X % items 65.1% 85.7% 90.9% 94.9% 96.7% 97.8% 98.7% 99.3% 99.7% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% 34.9% 14.3% 9.1% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Table 3 Deprivation rate of Different groups Entire sample Low-income households (*1) Age of Household Head 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s Over 70 Marital Status With Spouse Without Spouse Female with spouse Female without spouse Male with spouse Male without spouse Deprivation rate n 1520 34.9% 350 50.3% 76 218 303 358 343 222 1239 281 401 177 832 104 52.6% 32.1% 35.0% 32.1% 31.5% 41.0% 31.6% 49.1% 30.2% 49.2% 32.6% 49.0% χ2 47.62 17.87 *** *** 30.79 *** 19.20 *** 11.47 *** *1 Households with incomes less than 50% of median income *2 Households with only one person *3 Households with household head aged more than 60 years old *4 Households which has one or more disabled person *5 Households which has one ore more children aged less than 16 *6 Households which has one ore more children aged less than 16, and whose household head is single 20s with spouse 20s without spouse 30s with spouse 30s without spouse 40s with spouse 40s without spouse 50s with spouse 50s without spouse 60s with spouse 60s without spouse Over 70 with spouse Over 70 without spouse Single household (*2) Single female household Single male household Elderly household (*3) Single elderly household Single female elderly household Single male elderly household Disabled household (*4) Household with children (*5) Single-mother household (*6) 54 22 186 32 258 45 297 61 275 68 169 53 118 74 44 533 55 41 14 67 435 19 51.9% 54.5% 28.5% 53.1% 31.4% 55.6% 29.0% 47.5% 28.0% 45.6% 39.6% 45.3% 56.8% 54.1% 61.4% 34.3% 58.2% 56.1% 64.3% 61.2% 36.6% 73.7% 0.05 7.60 *** 9.83 *** 8.02 *** 7.82 *** 0.53 27.05 12.03 15.16 0.10 13.66 7.75 5.72 20.99 0.76 12.76 *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** Graph 1 Average Relative Deprivation Index by Income Strata 0.2 0.18 0.16 Deprivation Index 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Income(10,000yen) 1400 1600 1800 2000 Graph 2 Frequency of deprivation: working age vs. elderly 1.2 Working Age 1 Deprivation Rate Elderly 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Income (10,000 yen) 1200 1400 1600 Graph 3 Depth of Deprivation: Working age vs. Elderly (Average Deprivation scale for those whose Dep.Scale > 0) Average deprivation scale 0.25 Working age 0.2 Elderly 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Income (10,000 yen) 700 800 900 1000 Comparison of Japan-Australia Deprivation patterns Why Deprivation approach? Assumption that most households consist of nuclear families- Not the case in Japan -> raises questions re: equivalence adjustment Presence of multi-generational hh Deprivation approach: direct measurement of living standard, not relying on assumptions on resource sharing within families Slides 25-XX: Saunders, Peter & Abe, Aya. 2009. “Poverty and Deprivation in Young and Old: A Comparative Study of Australia and Japan.” Poverty and Public Policy, Vol.2, Iss.1, Article 5 (2010). Comparison of Japan-Australia Deprivation patterns Australia Japan Community Understanding The Social Living Survey, of Poverty and Social 2003, NIPSSR (Abe 2006) Exclusion (CUPSE) survey, 2006, Social Policy N=1,520 Research Centre (Saunders, Naidoo and Griffiths, 2007). N=2,700 Difficulties Do we use the same list of items? -> how do we account for differences in what is considered “necessary”? Do we use the items selected using the same methodology? What UNIT of comparison do we use? Table 4: The Overall Incidence of Deprivation (unweighted percentages) AUSTRALIA Domain/Item Health/Basic Needs Medical treatment if needed Dental treatment if needed Able to buy prescribed medicines Warm clothes and bedding A substantial daily meal Accommodation/Facilities A decent and secure home Secure locks on doors & windows Roof and gutters that do not leak Furniture in reasonable condition Heating in at least one room A washing machine Home contents insurance Security/Risk Protection Up to $500 in emergency savings Full motor vehicle insurance JAPAN Incidence (%) 2.0 13.9 3.9 0.2 1.1 6.6 5.1 4.6 2.6 1.8 0.8 9.5 17.6 8.6 Domain/Item Health/Basic Needs To be able to see a doctor To be able to see a dentist New underwear at least once a year Accommodation/Facilities Family's own toilet Family's own kitchen Hot water heater (for kitchen) Family's own bath (inc. shower) Heaters/coolers Micro-wave oven Separate bedroom from living space Security/Risk Protection Pension premiums for retirement Insurance for death, illness, etc. To be able to save every month Incidence (%) 1.8 2.7 7.4 1.2 1.1 3.4 2.2 0.9 1.5 4.9 4.1 7.8 25.0 Children’s Needs Up to date school books & clothes Children participate in school Annual check for children activitiesdental and outings A hobby/leisure activity for children A separate bed for each child A separate bedroom for older Social childrenFunctioning Telephone Regular social contact with others 3.8 3.5 5.7 9.1 1.6 Children’s Needs (a) Education to High School level Books, magazines for children Parents participating in school events 0.6 0.3 0.6 6.1 1.5 Social Functioning Telephone Attending relative's weddings, 2.0 4.7 funerals, etc. (including giving gifts) 2.8 Special suits for funerals, weddings, A television 0.2 etc. Presents for family or friends 6.6 Computer skills 5.2 Week's holiday away from home 22.4 Mean Incidence rate (unweighted) 5.8 (a) For Japan, the children’s needs were asked only to households with children aged 12 an 2.4 4.1 Table 1: Household Types and Sample Composition Australia Household type Japan Sample size % Sample size % Single, working-age (WA; 20-64) 202 8.0 66 4.4 Single, older person (OP; 65+) 158 6.2 43 2.8 Couple and other adults, head is 942 (502) 37.1 692 (463) 45.7 390 (309) 15.3 282 (137) 18.6 736 (576) 29.0 414 (331) 27.3 113 4.4 17 1.1 2,541 100.0 1,514 100.0 WA, no children (a) Couple and other adults, head is OP, no children (a) Couple and other adults, head is WA, with children (a) (b) Sole parent, WA with children Total Notes: (a) Numbers in brackets refer to couples only (i.e. no other adults living in the household); (b) This group contains a small number of households (15 in Australia and 6 in Japan) where the head is an older person. Table 6: Deprivation Indicators by Household Type AUSTRALIA JAPAN Household Mean Mean type score D=0 D≥1 D≥2 score D=0 D≥1 D≥2 (MDS) (%) (%) (%) (MDS) (%) (%) (%) Single, working-age (WA) 2.1 4.8 5.2 3.9 1.80 3.8 6.2 3.3 Single, older person (OP) 1.3 6.2 3.8 2.7 1.35 4.4 5.6 2.6 1.1 6.6 3.4 2.3 0.59 7.1 2.9 1.1 0.6 7.5 2.5 1.4 0.58 6.4 3.6 1.1 1.4 6.0 4.0 2.7 1.41 6.5 3.5 1.6 3.9 2.6 7.4 5.9 2.65 1.8 8.2 6.5 1.3 6.2 3.9 2.7 0.73 6.5 3.5 1.5 Couple and other adults, head is WA, no children Couple and other adults, head is OP, no children Couple and other adults, head is WA, with children Sole parent, WA with children Total Notes: See Notes to earlier Tables. Comparison by Household Type: Similarities The number of items differs between JP and AUS, thus comparison of the absolute values of MDS or % of deprivation do not mean much. Instead, we need to look at patterns and ordering of family types within each country. Similarities: Sole parents are the most deprived, followed by WA singles, WA with children. Least deprived are older couples, WA couples w/o children, older singles. ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ Comparison of hh types: remarkably similar Elderly single vs. WA single (AUS) << (JP) << Elderly single vs. Elderly couple (AUS) >> (JP) >> WA single vs. WA couple w/o children (AUS) >> (JP) >> WA couple with children vs. WA couple w/o children (AUS) > (JP) >> WA couple with children vs. Lone parents (AUS) << (JP) << Table 7: Overlap Analysis and Consistent Poverty (percentages) Neither Neither Poverty Deprivation P and P nor rate rate (D) P and P nor (D ? 2) D D (P) (D ? 2) D D 17.7 32.3 13.9 62.9 10.8 39.7 8.2 57.7 11.6 29.5 7.8 66.7 25.7 20.0 11.4 65.7 Poverty Deprivation rate rate (D) (P) (WA) Single, older person type JAPAN AUSTRALIA Household Single, working-age (OP) Couple and other 13.8 23.8 7.7 70.2 11.2 11.2 4.3 81.9 23.1 14.9 7.0 69.0 20.4 11.0 4.5 73.1 11.5 26.0 7.0 69.0 12.3 16.6 6.1 77.3 children 22.4 57.9 14.0 33.6 47.1 64.7 41.2 29.4 Total 14.5 26.4 7.7 66.8 14.3 14.6 5.9 77.0 adults, head is WA, no children Couple and other adults, head is OP, no children Couple and other adults, head is WA, with children Sole parent, WA with Notes: See Notes to earlier Tables. Overlap analysis Le us define Low income & D<=2 to be consistent poverty Aus: Consistent poverty is spread evenly at around 8% across all households (except sole parent hh). Jp: the differential is very large across different household types; strikingly high in elderly singles & sold parents Conclusion: Aus-Jap comparison The ranking of poverty as measured by income differs between AUS-JP, but it is very similar if poverty is measured by deprivation. Perhaps deprivation captures the “real” occurrence of poverty which is shared among countries? From the overlap analysis, consistent poverty is more concentrated in Japan. Measuring Social Exclusion in Japan Data The 2006 Living Conditions Survey (LCS) Sample of 1600 adults (20 years +), randomly chosen from the residents’ register in the southern Kawasaki City Kawasaki is located between Tokyo and Yokohama, a part of industrial belt. The southern part host many factories, and the city received influx of migrant laborers from rural sections of Japan. 584 responses (response rate = 36.5%) Survey Concept It should capture economic impoverishment not only by income, but also by material deprivation It should capture how an individual is excluded (forced out) from various public constructs within a society, e.g. public schemes such as public pension and public health insurance, public services such as transportation and utilities, and public spaces such as libraries and sports facilities It should capture exclusion from private spheres, e.g. lack of social relations (communication with others, meeting family obligations, doing activities with others) and social networks (support in need) it should measure degree of individual’s involvement with society, e.g. social participation such as participation in local communities (neighborhood organizations, women’s clubs, PTA, etc.), civic activities (voting, political involvement, etc.), and personal communities (alumni clubs, sports and hobby circles, etc.) These should enforced lack, rather than preference. It should not only capture the enforced lack due to economic constraints, but also due to other constraints (health, family, work, social, etc.), and should be able to distinguish them 8 dimensions chosen (lack of ) basic human needs, 2. material deprivation, 3. exclusion from systems and services, 4. (lack of) leisure and social participation, 5. inadequate housing, 6. (lack of ) social relation, 7. subjective poverty, and 8. income poverty 1. Almost all items were asked whether they “are wanted but cannot be obtained”, “not wanted (or not interested)” or “are obtained”. For most of items, the survey also asks “the reason” why that item cannot be obtained : Economic, family, work, health, other reasons. Example: Social Participation Family Economi Health Other or work c Resons Reasons reaons reasons 6 . Lack of Social Participation Holiday Less than 1 overnight family trip a year (exludes not interested) 35.1% 16.4% Eating out Less than 1 eating-out a month (exludes not interested) 37.4% Social activities Cannot participate in more than 1 item among 6 below (excludes not interested) 66.1% Neighborhood groups, PTA, women's or senior groups 38.6% Volunteer and charity activities 18.4% 5.0% 5.0% 1.7% 23.4% 5.9% 9.3% 49.1% 2.6% 31.0% 7.2% 10.3% Hobby or sports 26.2% 3.3% 16.5% 5.9% 3.3% Religious groups 6.9% 0.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% Political groups 12.2% 1.4% 5.0% 3.1% 3.3% Labor unions 20.6% 1.2% 6.8% 2.6% 9.3% Very few indicate economic reasons for not being able to participate in social activities Family/Work reasons is most often cited. Social Exclusion Indexes SocialExclusion Indexes (standarized) D im ensions Lack of B asic Needs M aterial Deprivation Exclusion from System s Lack of SocialParticipation H ousing D eprivation Lack of SocialR elations Subjective Poverty Incom e poverty n 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 456 # item s Average Std.Dev. 3 10 10 9 6 8 3 1 0.106 0.022 0.141 0.075 0.061 0.247 0.237 479.8 0.227 0.095 0.173 0.166 0.139 0.210 0.310 338.457 Percentage of Respondents who are Excluded Threshold (# item s) 1 1 4 4 2 4 2 198 % 20.9% 9.9% 11.0% 10.8% 11.8% 17.6% 18.0% 11.6% Threshold for determining those who are "excluded" are decided by the author so that the exclusion rate will be 10 to 20% of the respondents. Example: Exclusion from Systems Family Economi He alth Other or work c Resons Reasons reaons reasons 3 . Exclusion from Systems 1) Vo ting in Elections "Never""Almost none" ( total 16.8% ) , except those who are not interested (9.6%) 7.2% 2) Pension Insurance Not subscribing to either public nor private pension 9.2% 3) Health Insurance Not subscribing to either public no r private health insurance 4.3% 4) Public Service facilities and Cannot use at least 1 of below services and facilities 45.2% Economi c Resons Public libraries Public sports facilitie s (public pool, etc.) 25.4% 32.4% 7.6% 16.5% 14.2% 10.7% 4.0% 7.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 7.0% Public offices Public health centers Community centers, chonaikai centers, etc. Public parks Public transportation (bus, train, etc.) 5) Public utilities 4.0% Utilieis (Electricity, Gas, Water) 1.4% 1.9% Access or He alth Other facility Reasons reaons reasons 11.6% 16.1% 2.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.1% 0.9% 2.2% 4.5% 1.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 11.6% 10.3% 3.8% 9.9% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% Almost none stated economic reasons “Access” is most often cited reason. Share of Respondents Excluded, by key social variables n Income Poverty Lack of Basic Needs Material Deprivation Housing Deprivatio n Subjective Poverty Exclusion from Lack of Social Lack of Social Syste ms Participation Relations 584 290 294 0.116 0.117 0.116 0.209 0.228 0.190 0.099 0.114 0.085 0.118 0.114 0.122 0.180 0.224 ** 0.136 0.110 0.093 0.126 0.108 0.152 *** 0.065 0.176 0.200 0.153 113 105 0.137 0.082 0.195 0.210 0.097 0.124 0.168 * 0.095 0.106 * 0.190 0.106 0.105 0.106 0.076 0.097 ** 0.124 60-69 87 100 96 0.059 0.092 0.111 0.149 0.230 0.271 0.069 0.110 0.104 0.092 0.180 * 0.083 0.241 0.260 ** 0.177 0.080 0.080 0.083 0.149 0.260 ** 0.094 0.126 0.160 * 0.188 Over 70 83 0.226 *** 0.193 0.084 0.072 0.108 * 0.217 *** 0.289 *** 0.060 12 11 0.571 *** 0.000 0.250 0.182 0.000 0.182 0.083 0.273 0.167 0.091 0.023 0.130 0.116 0.093 * 0.407 *** 0.157 0.395 *** 0.370 *** 0.041 *** 0.023 ** 0.222 0.182 0.163 0.074 0.083 0.000 0.273 * 0.047 0.278 *** 0.083 0.083 0.273 43 54 121 0.000 0.273 * 0.163 0.259 *** 0.083 361 98 0.069 *** 0.136 0.188 0.214 0.097 0.061 0.122 0.071 0.202 * 0.102 ** 0.097 0.082 0.116 0.071 0.158 0.133 36 86 0.083 0.295 *** 0.167 0.291 ** 0.056 0.174 ** 0.028 * 0.186 ** 0.174 0.221 0.056 0.209 *** 0.000 ** 0.151 0.194 0.302 *** 95 185 44 0.194 ** 0.113 0.086 0.326 *** 0.238 0.182 0.179 *** 0.124 0.045 0.189 ** 0.103 0.045 0.253 ** 0.200 0.159 0.158 * 0.119 0.045 0.147 0.097 0.114 0.326 *** 0.168 0.159 103 138 0.092 0.092 0.175 0.116 *** 0.068 0.065 0.107 0.123 0.136 0.145 0.117 0.065 *** 0.117 0.094 0.146 0.094 *** Overall Men Women (*1) Age Group : 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 Household Type: (* 1) Single Elderly Wome n Single Elderly Men Single Working Age Women Single Working Age Men Households with Children (*2) Working Status Working Not Wo rking (Housewife) Not Wo rking (Retired) Not Wo rking (other) 0.116 0.222 0.107 ** Education :(*3) Junior High School High Schoo l Specialty school Junior College College Some Key findings (Gender) Men show higher rate of exclusion than women (lack of social participation and subjective poverty) Same as PSE (social participation), but even more so. (Age Group) The income poverty shows an U shape curve, but it does not seem to translate directly to Lack of Basic Needs and Material Deprivation. Those at 50’s seem to be at higher risk of many dimensions of S.E., e.g. Housing, Subjective poverty, Lack of Social Participation, Lack of Social Relations Concurs with the fact that the suicide rate for men peaks at age 50-59. & 95% of homeless persons are men, a half of which are in their 50s. (Household type) Working age single-person households are by far the most at risk of social exclusion: Basic Needs, Material deprivation, housing deprivation, and lack of social participation (Working Status) Not being in the labor force, by itself, does not seem to indicate higher risk of social exclusion. In fact, housewives and retired persons are at lower risk of social exclusion in some dimensions (subjective poverty, housing, social partipation) However, not-being in the labor force for other reasons does indicate higher risk of social exclusion in 6 dimensions, including non-financial dimensions such as Exclusion from Systems and Lack of Social Relations. Involuntary detachment from the labor force is associated with social exclusion. (Education Level) Low education attainment (up to Junior high school = age 15, the compulsory education in Japan) is a strong link to social exclusion, not only for financial dimensions (income poverty, lack of basic needs, material deprivation, housing deprivation), but also for non-financial dimension s (exclusion from systems, lack of social relations). High education attainment (college+) is associated with lower risk of social exclusion (systems, and basic needs) Social Exclusion and Earlier Disadvantages Outside Japan, there are many studies linking childhood poverty to adult outcomes. However, in Japan, there are very few studies connecting earlier life disadvantages and poverty and/or social exclusion, since there has not been much accumulation of panel data sets. The studies using the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC) , the only long enough panel data set, has shown those who divert from “standard life course”, such as those who divorce and who do not marry, are more prone to becoming poor (Iwata & Nishizawa 2005). However, JPSC only covers women in a certain cohort. This Study The survey was designed to capture major disadvantageous events (Independent variables): childhood poverty, divorce, prolonged illness or injury, involuntary lay-off. Outcome (Dependent) variables include both financial poverty as well as social exclusion. Control variables are : current income, sex, age class, single-elderly, current household type (has children, single-person household), current working status. Results of Regression for Social Exclusion Indexes Lack of Basic Needs Equiv.HH Income Sex (M=1, F=0) 20-29 yr old (*1) 40-49 yr old (*1) 50-59 yr old (*1) 60-69 yr old (*1) 70-79 yr old (*1) Over 80 yrs (*1) Single-person Household Housing Subjective Poverty -0.0212 *** -0.0034 ** 0.0178 -0.0024 -0.0050 -0.0170 * -0.0053 * -0.0277 ** -0.0079 -0.0455 *** 0.05808 ** -0.082 * -0.0006 -0.0239 0.0122 -0.0091 * 0.02293 -0.0219 -0.0084 ** 0.04411 *** 0.0072 -0.0399 -0.0089 -0.0125 -0.0233 ** -0.0202 * -0.0135 -0.0190 0.0002 -0.0166 0.0301 0.0848 * -0.0166 -0.0543 * -0.0276 -0.0371 -0.0538 0.0445 -0.069 * 0.0093 0.0163 -0.0157 0.0052 -0.0750 0.0299 0.0089 -0.0243 0.0246 ** -0.0008 -0.0429 0.1034 *** 0.0130 -0.0910 0.0090 0.0367 0.0602 -0.0077 0.0747 * 0.1111 * -0.0158 0.0014 -0.0809 * 0.0356 * -0.0289 0.0098 -0.0007 0.0013 -0.1164 *** 0.0073 0.0041 0.0051 0.0851 0.0388 -0.0059 -0.0041 0.0298 0.0429 ** 0.0213 0.0533 *** 0.0397 0.0396 -0.0132 0.0097 0.0397 -0.0071 -0.0154 -0.0050 -0.0395 Work Status(Working=1, NW=0)0.0062 -0.0256 Living with Children -0.0019 Experienced Sickness and Injury Single Elderly Experienced Divorce Experienced Lay-Off Living status at Age 15 Intercept Adj.R2 Material Deprivation Exclusion Lack of Social Lack of Social from Systems Participation Relations 0.0727 * -0.0061 0.0444 0.0348 *** 0.1346 *** 0.0082 0.0616 *** 0.0686 *** 0.0204 0.0354 0.1546 *** 0.0119 0.0389 0.0515 ** -0.0027 0.0343 -0.0295 0.0844 *** 0.0449 ** 0.0453 0.0305 0.14645 *** 0.02554 0.0815 0.0453 0.05771 *** 0.1624 0.3003 *** 0.1115 0.10824 *** 0.0311 0.22127 *** 0.06733 *** 0.0754 0.0423 (*) Asterisk represents results of chi-square statistics of the group and all others. : *** statistically significant at 1%, ** at 5%, * at 10% (*1) base 30-39 yr old Key Findings (Lay-off) Having experience of a lay-off has positive and significant effect on current material deprivation, housing deprivation, lack of social participation, lack of social relations, exclusion from systems and subjective poverty, even after controlling for current income, age, sex, working status, and household type. (Divorce) Having experience of divorce has positive and significant effect on basic needs and housing deprivation, even after controlling for current marital status (single-person hh). Key Findings (Prolonged illness and injuries) Having experience of prolonged illness and injuries (which caused one to be out of work or school for more than one month) has positive and significant effect on exclusion from systems. (Childhood poverty) Having experienced childhood poverty (living standard at age 15 was “very low” (=1) out of scale of 5) has positive and significant effect on current lack of basic needs, even after controlling for current income, age, household type and other disadvantages such as divorce and lay-offs. The causal relationship is indicated. (Control variables) Income: Negative and significant in all but one (systems exclusion), including social relations and participation. Gender: Men are + *** (social relations, subjective poverty) Age: does not seem to have that strong of a effect Work sattus: + ** (Exclusion from systems) ?? Conclusions Sections of population most vulnerable to income poverty is not most vulnerable to social exclusion. Possible “new” vulnerable group: men in their 50s. Disadantages in earlier stages of life seem to exhort influences on some aspects of current social exclusion, even after controlling for current income, work status, household type, etc. The catch-phrase of the former PM Abe “a society in which one can re-challenge” DOES NOT seem to hold. Childhood poverty seems to have irrevocable continuing effect on adult well-being not only via education and occupation (and thus income), but by another path.