Measurement of Poverty: Concepts & Measurements Measurement of Poverty 1 Measurement of Poverty “The governments are very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power and take the cubed root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman who just puts down whatever he damn well pleases.” - Sir Josiah Stamp Measurement of Poverty 2 Measurement of Poverty Practical Concerns • Identification of Poverty Line • Defining the Unit of Measurement • Selecting the Indicator of Well-being Measurement of Poverty 3 Identification of Poverty Lines • The point at which the poor are separated from the non-poor – Relative Poverty Lines – Absolute Poverty Lines Measurement of Poverty 4 Absolute Poverty Lines Type Food Energy Intake Cost of Basic Needs World Bank US$1 / day Description Based on observed relation between calorie intake and total household expenditure Identifies bundle of goods necessary to meet basic needs, then estimates cost US$370 / year Features PL may vary by subgroups of population e.g. by region Most common method Identification of basic needs may not be strghtfwd Eases comparison across countries Zero cost of calculation Conversion to local currency problematic Measurement of Poverty 5 Food Energy Intake Method • Sets PL at the level of expenditure at which FEI is just sufficient to meet basic nutrition requirements • STEP ONE: Establish the minimum nutrition requirements. • STEP TWO: Examine the observed spending pattern to see at what average expenditure household just achieve minimum nutrition requirement. Measurement of Poverty 6 Food Energy Intake Method Food Energy Intake Min Nutrition Standard (eg 2100 cals.) PL Measurement of Poverty Expenditure (or Income) 7 Food Energy Intake Method • The PL determined by the FEI method may vary across regions due to differences in: Preferences: if more expensive animal protein and less food grain is eaten. Relative Prices: in urban areas it may cost more to obtain basic nutrition because food prices are higher. Publicly Provided Goods: in capital city transport to/from work may be cheaper than in provincial cities, allowing for lower expenditure level to meet minimum FEI. Measurement of Poverty 8 Food Energy Intake Method • This method does take account of non-food purchases. Measurement of Poverty 9 Cost of Basic Needs • PL is equal to the value of a bundle of consumption goods necessary to meet basic needs May include just food (extreme poverty) But more commonly includes non-food items Measurement of Poverty 10 Cost of Basic Needs • STEP ONE: Establish the minimum consumption bundle necessary to meet basic needs Measurement of Poverty 11 Cost of Basic Needs • STEP TWO: Establish the cost for the items in the basic consumption bundle Measurement of Poverty 12 Additional Considerations in Setting Poverty Lines • Regional Poverty Lines Significant regional price differences may exist Urban / Rural poverty lines common • Sensitivity Analysis Typically near mode of distribution Multiple poverty lines often tried Measurement of Poverty 13 Distribution of Expenditure Mexico, 1992 0.18 Poverty Line 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 10600 10100 96000 91000 86000 81000 76000 71000 66000 61000 56000 51000 46000 41000 36000 31000 26000 21000 16000 11000 6000 0 1000 Population Share 0.16 Expenditure/Quarter (1984 pesos) Measurement of Poverty 14 10 00 60 00 11 00 0 16 00 0 21 00 0 26 00 0 31 00 0 36 00 0 41 00 0 46 00 0 51 00 0 56 00 0 61 00 0 66 00 0 71 00 0 76 00 0 81 00 0 86 00 0 91 00 0 96 00 10 0 10 0 10 0 60 00 Cumulative Percentage of Population Cumulative Distribution of Expenditure Mexico, 1992 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Poverty Line 0 Expenditure/Quarter (1984 pesos) Measurement of Poverty 15 Measurement of Poverty Practical Concerns • Identification of Poverty Line • Defining the Unit of Measurement • Selecting the Indicator of Well-being Measurement of Poverty 16 Defining the Unit of Measurement Household vs. Individual Adjusting for differences among HH Adjusting for the age / gender of HH members Adjusting for HH size Measurement of Poverty 17 Defining the Unit of Measurement • Example: 2 HH with monthly Y of $150 HH1 has 2 members…per capita Y = $75 HH2 has 3 members …per capita Y = $50 BUT: • HH1 has 2 adult men • HH2 has woman and 2 small children Measurement of Poverty 18 Equivalence Scales and Economies of Scale • HH size is often measured in “adult equivalent” units each member of the HH counts as some fraction of an adult male Economies of scales can then be accounted for by scaling the adult equivalent units Measurement of Poverty 19 Equivalence Scales and Economies of Scale • Many different methodologies are followed within two basic approaches Fixed Scales Estimated Scales Measurement of Poverty 20 Fixed Scales • Ex 1: Adult Equivalent Scale: Adult Male = 1 Adult Female = 0.74 Child < 5 years = 0.6 • Ex 2: OECD Scale: AE=1+0.7*(A-1)+0.5*C – First adult = 1 – Additional adults = 0.7 – Children < 14 = 0.5 Measurement of Poverty 21 Estimating AE Scales • Based on examining HH data to see how consumption varies with gender/age and size Food share of expenditure is regressed on HH size, HH composition Measurement of Poverty 22 Examples of AE Estimated Scales • Ex 1: Deaton and Meullbauer, Sri Lanka, Indonesia Adults = 1 Child 13-17 = 0.5 Child 7-12 = 0.3 Child < 7 = 0.2 Measurement of Poverty 23 Examples of AE Estimated Scales • Ex 2: Deaton, India and Pakistan – The AE value of adding another person to a HH with 2 adults: Age 0-4 = 0.48 Age 5-9 = 0.56 Age 10-14 = 0.60 Age 15-54 = 0.68 Measurement of Poverty 24 What is a HH? • UN definition: – “Group of people who eat together” • But: how long must one be a resident to be counted as part of a HH – Students, migrant workers, etc. Measurement of Poverty 25 Measurement of Poverty Practical Concerns • Identification of Poverty Line • Defining the Unit of Measurement • Selecting the Indicator of Well-being Measurement of Poverty 26 Selecting the Indicator of Well-being • Monetary Measure of Welfare Income Expenditure • Non-Monetary Measures of Welfare Direct Measures Subjective Measures Measurement of Poverty 27 Income • Definition: Y = C + in net worth • Example Assets start of year: $10K Spending on consumption: $3K Assets end of year: $11K Annual Y: $4K Measurement of Poverty 28 Problems with Income as Welfare Measure • Conceptual Problems – Goal is to measure HH ability to meet basic needs, but Y is just one factor • access to credit, public services, access, etc. are other factors that determine ability to meet basic needs Measurement of Poverty 29 Problems with Income as Welfare Measure • Measurement Problems – Understating of Y Difficult to recall all of Y, especially when Y flow is erratic as in the informal sector Fear of tax collector Illegally earned Y Separating inputs from revenue in agriculture Accounting for own consumption of output Measurement of Poverty 30 Expenditure • Generally preferred to Income – Is more direct measure of what is consumed – Less volatile than Y • Consumption smoothing... Measurement of Poverty 31 Consumption Smoothing Income Consumption Y C Time Measurement of Poverty 32 Calculating Y or Expenditure for HH • How do we measure Y / Expenditure? • What is included? • NB: HH may be both producers and consumers Measurement of Poverty 33 Measuring Y and Expenditure HH as Consumer Household Expenditure Household Y Wage Y Agricultural Y Non-farm self-employment Rent and Imputed Rent Net inter-HH transfers Other Y Food expenditure C of own-produced food Housing expenditure Non-food expenditure Measurement of Poverty 34 Measuring Y and Expenditure Household as Producer Receipts Outgoing Revenue from sale of output Own-consumption for produced output Cash expenditure on inputs In-kind expenditure on inputs Measurement of Poverty 35 Calculating Y and Expenditure • Must not include: Inputs into HH production, like money spent on seeds, fertilizer Expenditure on investment, like purchase of tools Measurement of Poverty 36 Calculating Y and Expenditure • Should include: Housing for owner-occupied dwellings Expenditure on durable goods Measurement of Poverty 37 Non-Monetary Measure of Welfare • Direct Welfare Measures Nutrition Poverty Health Poverty Education Poverty Measurement of Poverty 38 Nutrition Poverty • Input – Example: Calories per day • Outcomes – Example: Malnutrition Measurement of Poverty 39 Health Poverty • Outcomes – Ex: life expectancy, infection rates • Inputs – Ex: vaccination rates Measurement of Poverty 40 Education Poverty • Outcomes – Ex: Literacy rates • Inputs: – Ex: Enrolment numbers Measurement of Poverty 41 Subjective Measures • HH may be asked directly about their welfare • HH may be asked to establish minimum standards • Community indicators may be established Measurement of Poverty 42 Poverty Measures • We may want to measure poverty directly instead of looking at Y and inequality together • The most commonly used poverty measures are: Head Count Index Poverty Gap Proportional Poverty Gap Squared Poverty Gap Measurement of Poverty 43 Head Count Index • HCI = (# poor) / (population) • Measures the “incidence” of poverty – i.e. it tells us “How many poor” Measurement of Poverty 44 Head Count Index • Simplest and most commonly used measure • Limitations: Does not account for depth of poverty; i.e. it does not tell us how far below the poverty line the poor are. • Advantages: Simple to understand, straightforward interpretation. Additive across populations. Measurement of Poverty 45 Regional Head Count Estimates Extreme Poverty <$275/year SSA: South Asia: ME/NA: LA / Car: East Asia: HC .30 .29 .21 .12 .09 Measurement of Poverty Millions of People 120 300 40 50 120 46 Regional Head Count Estimates Moderate Poverty < $370/year SSA: South Asia: ME/NA: LA / Car: East Asia: HC .48 .52 .31 .22 .13 Measurement of Poverty Millions of People 184 532 60 87 182 47 Absolute Poverty Gap • PG = (# Poor) * (Y shortfall) • PG = (Z-Yi) ; – where Z is PL, Yi is income of person i • It tells us the total Y shortfall of the poor; i.e. the absolute amount that would be needed to raise all the poor up to the poverty line. Measurement of Poverty 48 Absolute Poverty Gap Poverty Gap Y PL Population (poorest to richest) Measurement of Poverty 49 Absolute Poverty Gap Y Y Poverty Gap PL PL Population Relatively large poverty gap Population Relatively small poverty gap Measurement of Poverty 50 Proportional Poverty Gap • PPG = (1/N){(Z-Yi)/Z} • Measures the “depth” of poverty • It gives some weight to how far below the poverty line a poor individual is – If a poor person’s income fall, the HC won’t change, but the PPG will increase to reflect the increase in the depth of poverty Measurement of Poverty 51 Squared Poverty Gap(Foster-Greere Thorbecke) • PPG = (1/N){(Z-Yi)/Z}2 • Measures the “severity” of poverty • Squares the difference between the poverty line and each household’s income – provides much greater weight to the poorest of the poor because the farther the HH from the poverty line, the greater the weight it is given Measurement of Poverty 52 Poverty Measures • Head Count • Proportional Poverty Gap • Squared Poverty Gap • Absolute Poverty Gap • Income Distribution Y PL Pop (poorest to richest) Measurement of Poverty 53 Poverty Measures • These first 3 poverty measures are often referred to as the Foster-Greere-Thorbecke family of indices • They can all be written as: – Pα= (1/N){(Z-Yi)/Z} • =0 is HC • =1 is PPG • =2 is SPG Measurement of Poverty 54 Poverty Measures from Mexico 1984 Rural Urban 1989 Rural Urban HC PPG SPG .90 .72 .58 .35 .42 .21 .94 .68 .62 .32 .61 .39 Measurement of Poverty 55 Human Development Index • An attempt to account for some of the limitations of using just income or expenditure as a measure of welfare • Tries to take seriously some of Sen’s arguments about capabilities – Sen argues that the goal is to increase capabilities …to be well fed, educated, healthy – These capabilities won’t always be perfectly correlated with income Measurement of Poverty 56 Income and Capabilities Sri Lanka Per Capita Share of Share of Income Poorest 40% Richest 20% 2,990 22 39 Guatemala 3,350 8 63 Sri Lanka Life Expectancy 72 Infant Mortality 18 Adult Literacy 89 Guatemala 65 48 54 Measurement of Poverty 57 HDI • Consists of 3 elements • Life Expectancy – Educational Attainment 2/3 Adult Literacy 1/3 School Enrolment – Per Capita Income Adjusted down for Y > $5K • Each component scored on 0 - 1 scale • Index is simple average of 3 components Measurement of Poverty 58 Gender Development Index • Motivated by inequality in the distribution of resources across gender. • Is there evidence that resources are distributed unequally? • The same 3 components as HDI, but gives weight to relative equality in Y and achievement of capabilities by gender. Measurement of Poverty 59 Human Poverty Index • Attempt by UNDP to take Sen’s capability approach even more seriously • Index combines 3 parts: Vulnerability to early death Access to education Overall standard of living • Health, water, nutrition Measurement of Poverty 60 Measurement of Poverty The secret of truth is that there are no facts, only stories. - Joao Ubaldo Ribeira Brazilian novelist Measurement of Poverty 61