Tehseen Ahmed
(Research Associate, Newports Institute of Communication and Economics)
Dr. Iqbal Panhwar
(Dean, Baharia University Karachi)
Dr. Tayyaba Zarif
(Head of Department, Newports Institute of Communication and Economics)
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There are many advantages as well as disadvantages of Urbanization,
includes the traffic jams, surge in crimes, unemployment and poverty.
The capacity of opportunities for jobs and education are limited, in the
same context the capacity in hospitals, schools, buses, trains and other
foods and services are limited for urban population. On the contrary,
there are many advantages includes the support to economy in shape of
small businesses and cheap manpower, the availability of the labor and
other services increases. The most of the services specially, the drivers,
maids, mochi, teachers and sales staff in cities belong to the rural areas.
Currently, maximum share of the urbanization prevails on Karachi, called
the mini Pakistan. The people from every region, every language, religion
and cast is available in Karachi. In the same, the human life in the city is
quite disturbed due to political and religious turmoil. The rates of crime,
murders trend and snatching is very high in Karachi as compare to other
cities in Pakistan. This is due to the unavailability of the resources like
employment, education; health and discrimination that ultimately
indulge youngsters in controvert activities.
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The bread-and-butter foundations of bent amends were developed
by Beccaria (1767) and addition antecedent of absorption in
economics of crimes is emerged from the acclaimed atypical
Crime and Punishment by Dostoevsky (1866).
The role of assets on the bent activities is empiric by Fleisher
(1966). The columnist argued that assets have two accessible
furnishings on bent behavior. An accepted appeal ancillary
aftereffect is absolute and accepted accumulation ancillary
aftereffect is negative. Appeal ancillary after effect is that if
humans accept college incomes again there is abatement in bent
behavior. The accumulation ancillary aftereffect is that if there are
added assets in the abridgement and humans wish to get that
money through bent behavior. He estimated that appeal ancillary
aftereffect is added than the accumulation ancillary aftereffect that
is if there is 1 % access in assets again the abomination decreases
by 2.5%.
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Considering 177 regions, authors estimated the
abstracted models of acreage and agitated crimes and
argued that if the neighbors of urban areas are poors
again there is added adventitious of crimes in urban
areas.
In Pakistan urbanization is an austere amount because
in 2030 urban citizenry will acceleration by 140% about
(Haider 2006). The columnist argued that this blazon of
fast advance in urbanization will actualize
unemployment in adolescence and change the
apperception of humans appears crimes. Urbanization
is not bad in itself because humans accept the
appropriate to advance their active accepted and
acquisition acceptable jobs which is added in urban
areas.
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Social Variables
H1: There is positive influence of Murders on Urbanization in Pakistan
H2: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Kidnapping
H3: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Decoity
H4: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Robbery
H5: There is positive influence of Cattle Theft on Urbanization in
Pakistan
H6: There is positive influence of other thefts on Urbanization in
Pakistan
Economic Variables
H7: There is positive influence of Per Capita GNP on Urbanization in
Pakistan
H8: There is positive relationship between Unemployment and
Urbanization in Pakistan
H9: There is positive relationship between Inflation and Urbanization in
Pakistan
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This study is quantitative by nature.
Secondary by function
Exploratory by type
We choose the exploratory design
To explore the impacts of urbanization. We collected
the data of a decade from year 2002 to 2012 from
various resources including the World Bank and Sindh
high court.
To check the integrity of the collected data, we
examined the figures by Reliability Test through SPSS
that provides the reliable:
Cronbech beta subsequently we tests the relationship
of dependent and independent variables through
Linear Regression and Pearson Correlation.
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Overall model revealed the significant results
with 2.825 Durbin Watson. However, the
model explained maximum part with 91% R
Square whereas the standard error is nearly
14%. The adjusted R Square of the model is
0.908.
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There is positive influence of Murders on Urbanization in Pakistan
The relationship of murders with urbanization is quite significant with positive
1.596 Beta with the 6.019 t statistics, whereas the Pearson’s correlation reflects the
91.3% dependence of murders on urbanization. These results are very stunned
that rate of murders in Pakistan is due to the urbanization. However, the results
are based on the historical data of the country.
There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Kidnapping
The results of regressions are significant at 1% and reflect the negative relationship
between kidnapping in the cities and urbanization with -0.174 whereas slope of the
relationship is -1.663. The result shows that whenever movement of inhabitants in
cities increases the kidnapping decreases. Additionally, the Pearson’s correlation
reveals the 91.12% positive relationship.
There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Decoity
This hypothesis also tested through same methodology and results revealed the
negative relationship with -0.411 whereas t statistics reflects the -2.611.
Furthermore, the relationship is significant with 0.011 levels.
Furthermore, another relationship tool, the correlation reflects the 87.37% positive
relationship between urbanization and decoity
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There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Robbery
This relationship is also the significant with 0.264 levels with positive beta 0.124 whereas t
statistics reveals the 1.125 relationship. Furthermore, the correlation also reveals the 82.60%
positive relationship. It means that urbanization influence the robberies in urban areas with
12.4% efficiency.
There is positive influence of Cattle Theft on Urbanization in Pakistan
This hypothesis also reflects the expected relationship with 0.023 levels of significance whereas
beta of the relationship is positive 0.112 that slope is 2.310. Furthermore, the correlation of the
relationship also revealed the positive relationship with 24.44% results. This is the unexpected
results because mostly cattle exists in rural areas and their possibility that cattle theft increase
and forwarded to urban areas that ultimately impact the increment in urbanization as well.
There is positive influence of other thefts on Urbanization in Pakistan
The relationship between urbanization and other thefts, including the money, wallets
equipment and mobile snatching also reflects the positive results with 0.544 beta where the
slope is 3.096 with 0.003 levels of significance. Moreover, the relationship of same variables on
correlation reflects the 91.09% positive results. This is due to the more population of
inhabitants against urbanization where opportunities are limited, that creates the gap of
employment and leads to the thefts and other crimes.
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There is positive influence of Per Capita GNP on Urbanization in Pakistan
The results of this hypothesis revealed the expected results with .032 levels of significance
where positive relationship with 0.472 and
2.180 slope exists. The results of correlation
with same variables reveal the 22.1% results. These results are the symbol of contribution of
urbanized population in economic growth of the country.
There is positive relationship between Unemployment and Urbanization in Pakistan
The relationship between unemployment and urbanization is significant with 0.428 where beta
is positive 0.012 with 0.796 t statistics. The correlation reflects the -18.31% negative
relationship. The contribution of urbanization in unemployment is due to the limited
opportunities with increasing trend of urbanization and the lack of effective quota system by
the private sectors as well.
There is positive relationship between Inflation and Urbanization in Pakistan
The level of significance for relationship between inflation and urbanization is 0.485 whereas
the beta of the relationship is negative -0.001 with -0.701slope. Furthermore, the correlation of
the same variables reflects the positive results with 10.95% relationship. This reflects that
urbanization is a tool to control the inflation that may be uses with different policies and
infrastructure of the government. Furthermore, it proves that urbanized population is
participating in economic development of the country.
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The overall results reflect that there are more
negative impacts for country due to urbanization
as compare to positive impacts.
The authorities and policy makers should consider
the increasing rates of crimes and unemployment.
There should be effective controls especially for
crimes and unemployment in view of increasing
trends of urbanization while making the policies.
Furthermore, I recommend an additional primary
research to know the views of inhabitants
regarding discrimination on quota system and
hiring policies of public and private sectors.
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