ToR# 9 IMPROVING THE TARGETING EFFECTIVENESS OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS IN BANGLADESH Principal Investigator Abul Barkat Co-Investigators Matiur Rahman, Abdullah Al Hussain, Subhash Kumar Sen Gupta, & Faisal Mohammad Ahamed Manob Sakti Unnayan Kendro (MSUK) House 05, Road 08, Mohammadia Housing Society, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207 Presented at Workshop on Research to Inform Food and Nutrition Security Policies Ruposhi Bangla Hotel Dhaka : November 28, 2012 Background and Objectives Every 3rd household (31.5%; HIES 2010) live in poverty Social safety net programmes (SSNP) have been mainstay of poverty alleviation strategy since independence Currently, 24.6% HHs (Rural 30.1% & Urban 9.4%) receive SSNP benefit (HIES 2010), which was 13% in 2005 In FY 2012-13, Tk. 227.5 billion allocated under Social Protection & Empowerment (11.87% of the budget & equivalent to 2.18% of the GDP) (Social protection 75%; empowerment 25%) Large amount of money spent on SSNP; number of beneficiaries increasing Often questioned – whether most eligible persons receive SSNPs? TARGETING ERROR (both inclusion and exclusion) is thought to be a serious drawback to reach the food insecure and the poor, in addition to capacity constraints (e.g., constrained budget) 2 Background and Objectives … contd.. Recent studies identified 4 potential sources of targeting errors: 1. Mismatch of geographical allocations of resources & poverty rates 2. Use of improper targetting indicators 3. Even if design of SSN targeting mechanism is sound, political economy & implementation issues at local level overrides it 4. Institutional issues at central level foster overlaps and gaps in coverage Such targeting errors reduce the resources available to support poorest & most food insecure households. Therefore, objective of Government’s spending on SSNPs not fulfilled effectively. 3 Background and Objectives … contd.. This research is expected to: Provide a comprehensive review of SSNP targeting mechanism & errors that will enable GoB to improve targeting so that it better reaches the food insecure and the poor Contribute to achieve major national goals of National Food Policy (2006) & National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008-2015) Objectives: To map the major sources of targeting errors in social safety nets & assess their relative contribution To recommend ways to decrease inclusion & exclusion errors at the programme-level based on experiences in Bangladesh and in South Asia regions To identify potential ways forward for building a SSN system in Bangladesh 4 Methodology and Data Sources As per ToR, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) was the major data source to investigate into targeting performance (inclusion and exclusion errors) of public SSNPs in general and by individual programmes in particular. The methodology was designed assigning special emphasis on analysis of relevant HIES data. Preliminary investigation revealed that out of 30 public SSNPs included in HIES 2010, more than 20 programmes have <100 samples (very negligible compared to their countrywide beneficiaries). (E.g., only 4 beneficiary HHs of Maternity Allowance programme included in HIES whose national beneficiary is 88,000.) To avoid representation problem, study methodology was redesigned in consultation with TAT members & other experts at FAO/NFPCSP. 5 Methodology and Data Sources …contd… From HIES 2010 data: Analysis made aggregating all beneficiary HHs of all 30 programmes (the term is “public safety net beneficiaries”) together & then for each of the 8 programmes with more than 100 sample HHs. Recent studies conducted by other organizations/individuals: For the remaining programmes, we reviewed recent studies conducted by other organizations/individuals & used their findings. Consultation with experts: For the purpose of drawing inferences on the remaining programmes, we consulted experts who have conducted research on safety net targeting or worked in relevant sectors. Primary data collection: Even after the above three exercises, inferences on some programmes will not be possible. For those programmes a survey will be conducted to obtain primary data from the beneficiary and eligible non-beneficiary HHs. 6 Major Findings based on Secondary Analysis of HIES 2010 7 The HIES 2010 and SSNP in Bangladesh The HIES (2010) includes (Section 1 Part C) 30 social safety net programmes. The respondent households (n=12,240) were asked 7 questions on safety net programmes. The questions covered: Whether the household (any member of the household) has been included in any SSNP in the preceding 12 months If “Yes”, which programme(s) When s/he was included in the programme (month and year) What benefit s/he is entitled to receive from the programme What benefit (cash/kind) s/he has received How much money s/he had to spend to be included in the programme If “not included”, what was the reason for exclusion (both genuine and defects) Other parts of HIES questionnaire include demographic & socioeconomic information of household and members. The broad variables/indicators are: Individual/Household level information available in the HIES 2010 Age, sex, marital status, religion/ethnicity, education and literacy, disability, illness and injury, home, housing and basic service (water, sanitation and electricity), land ownership, asset description Earning status, employment status, income, economic activity (including agricultural, livestock, fisheries etc), calamity and disaster, loan and remittance, household food and non8 food consumption The HIES 2010 and SSNP in Bangladesh Programme Types Social Protection Programmes Social Empowerment Programmes Total SSNP Budget Total public spending on SSNP (FY 2012-13) Total Pension Amount without Amount (in Amount (in Pension (in billion Taka) billion Taka) billion Taka) Budgetary allocations (for HIES-2010 Programmes) % Total Amount % without Pension 169.4 45.2 124.2 59.6 81.3 58.2 0 58.2 42.9 42.9 227.6 45.2 182.4 55.4 69.1 55% of the SSNP budget spent on programmes listed in HIES 2010; Pension constitute 20% of SSNP budget (Is ‘Pension’ SSNP?) Considering the 30 programmes listed in the HIES is a perfect sample for generalizations about overall public safety net sector 9 SSNP Beneficiary Targeting The first research issue is identification of targeting errors which can be grouped as inclusion error—meaning inclusion of non-eligible & exclusion error—meaning exclusion of eligible persons We have compiled all the eligibility (inclusion & exclusion) criteria for most of the selected public SSNPs from relevant documents of the respective programmes. SSNP Targeting of Beneficiary Inclusion Criteria Essential Criteria Exclusion Criteria Priority Criteria Poverty—the most essential targeting criteria ‘Poverty’/’extreme poverty’/’poor household’ is an essential criterion for all the SSNPs along with other criteria such as low income, landlessness, disability, gender, old age, maternity & other vulnerability etc. 10 Household demography and receipt of SSNP benefits Nationally, households with 7-8 and 5-6 members are ahead of other household sizes in terms of receipt of SSNP benefit. Respectively 29% and 28% of beneficiary households are of these sizes. In rural areas, every 3rd beneficiary household consists of 1-2 members. Nationally, 86% households are male headed & 14% female headed. Of SSNP beneficiary households, 85% male headed and 15% female headed. A 30% household receive SSNP benefit where household head is more than 60 years old. 11 SSNP Beneficiary HHs and land ownership status Land ownership category Landless <15 decimals but not landless 15-49 decimals 50 decimals and more Total Frequency 190 1,541 452 806 2,989 Percent 6.4 51.6 15.1 27.0 100.0 Landlessness or HHs with less than 15 decimal of land is an essential/priority criterion for SSNPs such as Old Age Allowance, Widow Allowance, Disability Allowance, VGD, VGF, Maternal Voucher Scheme, Employment Generation for Extreme Poor (former 100 Days EGP) etc 50 decimals and more (%) General Relief Activities VGF 11.2 Programme Name Programme Name 50 decimals and more (%) 17.9 Widowed Allowance 15.1 Stipend for Primary Students 27.6 Gratuitous Relief 15.5 Stipend for Secondary Female Student 45.7 Old age Allowance 16.7 Agriculture Rehabilitation 58.0 12 Poverty, SSNP beneficiaries and literacy status Respondent Type All respondent of HIES SSNP beneficiary Respondent SSNP Non-beneficiary, below UPL* Below UPL, all respondent Below LPL, all respondent Literacy Status Literate Illiterate 58.8 38.9 43.7 42.4 37.6 41.2 61.1 56.3 57.6 62.4 N 47,323 3,475 12,786 14,237 7,748 *Defined as eligible Non-beneficiary of SSNP **This table is prepared for individuals. If a household is considered poor then all the members within that HH are considered as poor. ***A person aged 7 years and above and who is able to write a letter is considered as literate in the HIES Literacy status of beneficiaries of individual programmes (% literate): Old age Allowance (13. 6) Widowed Allowance (13.9) Housing Support (20) Test Relief (25) Allowance for Insolvent Disabled (28.1) VGF (28.5) Cash for Work (29.4) VGD (30) Gratuitous Relief (36.4) Open market sales (37.5) Agriculture Rehabilitation (44.1), 13 Housing, sanitation, electricity and availability of cell phone • 21% have muddy wall and another 26% have walls made of hemp, hay, bamboo. • 4% have roof made of mud, tally and wood while only 3% have concrete made roof. • Very negligible number of beneficiary households of the programmes designed for the ultra poor or other vulnerable groups (e.g., old age allowance, widow allowance, disability allowance, VGD, VGF, GR, TR, FFW etc) have walls or roofs made of brick/cement. • Only 11% beneficiary households have sanitary latrines. • 39% beneficiary households have electricity connections at their residences. Nationally, 55% HHs have electricity connections (rural 42.5%, urban 90% • Regardless of programmes, more than half (51.1%) beneficiary households own cell phone. Nationally, 64% households have cell phone. • No data is available for individuals in the HIES. 14 Poverty, Income, Expenditure and Social Safety Net 15 Poverty HCR and SSNP benefit flow Division National Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet % of HH receiving SSNP Benefit (Survey Year 2010) Incidence of poverty (HCR) by CBN Method (HIES 2010) Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban 24.6 34.4 20.0 18.9 37.3 20.7 33.7 23.5 30.1 37.2 24.5 27.8 43.3 22.9 35.1 26.1 9.4 20.7 7.4 6.0 16.7 10.2 23.7 10.5 31.5 39.4 26.2 30.5 32.1 35.7 46.2 28.1 35.2 39.2 31.0 38.8 31.0 36.6 47.2 30.5 21.3 39.9 11.8 18.0 35.8 30.7 37.0 15.0 Regional disparity (improper allocation of resources) !!! Highest % of HHs (37.3%) received benefit from SSNPs in Khulna division. On the basis of poverty HCR, Khulna division ranks fourth Poverty HCR is highest in Rangpur division (HCR 46.2% and 30.1% using the Upper and the Lower poverty lines respectively), on the basis of SNP beneficiaries, it ranks 3rd position with 33.7% beneficiary HHs 16 % distribution of beneficiary and non-beneficiary HHs by income deciles and residence (rural-urban) Household Income Deciles National Rural Urban National Rural Urban Lower 5% 7.0 7.3 5.7 4.4 5.7 2.4 Decile-1 13.3 6.9 9.8 8.9 12.0 4.5 Decile-2 11.7 12.5 8.8 9.5 11.3 7.0 Decile-3 12.0 13.3 7.0 9.3 10.9 7.1 Decile-4 11.9 12.3 10.2 9.4 9.5 9.1 Decile-5 12.0 11.6 13.7 9.4 10.0 8.4 Decile-6 10.3 9.6 13.0 9.9 9.6 10.3 Decile-7 10.0 9.6 11.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 Decile-8 8.2 7.8 9.9 10.6 9.5 12.2 Decile-9 6.0 5.2 9.1 11.3 9.3 14.2 Decile-10 4.6 2.8 7.0 11.8 8.1 17.1 Top 5% 1.6 1.1 3.4 6.1 3.9 9.3 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N 2,989 2,374 615 9,251 5,466 3,785 SSN beneficiary households (%) Non-beneficiary households (%) 17 % distribution of beneficiary HH of major SSNPs by income deciles Major Safety Net Programmes (HIES 2010) Old Age Allowance Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women General Relief Activities Agriculture Rehabilitation Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) Gratuitous Relief (GR)Non-cash Stipend for Primary Students Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend Household Income Deciles (HIES 2010) L5% D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 T5% 16.3 26.2 11.1 10.8 10.2 10.0 8.8 8.8 6.3 4.7 3.2 0.9 16.8 21.4 14.3 12.6 10.9 12.6 10.5 8.4 5.5 2.1 1.7 0.4 6.0 13.6 10.9 12.8 14.7 12.5 12.1 11.3 6.8 3.4 1.9 0.0 3.3 8.4 11.7 9.0 9.0 11.5 9.5 13.4 9.7 10.4 7.3 2.6 2.5 12.3 12.3 13.1 15.6 9.0 17.2 11.5 7.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 9.3 13.4 15.0 14.2 16.6 11.5 7.9 8.3 2.2 1.6 0.2 3.3 8.9 13.7 12.9 13.7 12.4 10.0 9.2 7.4 6.0 6.0 2.0 3.1 6.5 7.3 8.5 10.8 9.2 12.7 8.5 12.3 13.9 10.4 5.0 Only programmes with more than 100 beneficiary households in the HIES 2010 considered. 18 Are the HHs getting SSNP poor? SSNPs are meant for the poor. In Bangladesh, 24.6% HHs receive SSNP (where the poverty rate is 31.5%) Given an ideal situation (i.e., safety net is for the poor), the above figures seem satisfactory. However, the situation is not as ideal as the figures appear. The reality is as below: SSNP beneficiary HHs below Poverty Lines (HIES, 2010) 40.5 25.0 24.0 All 41.6 40.2 Rural Below Upper Poverty Line 20.0 Urban Below Lower Poverty Line 19 SSNP beneficiary households below Poverty Lines in the CBN Method (by division and rural urban) Divisions National Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Location Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Below Upper Poverty Line 40.5 40.2 41.6 47.3 43.9 61.3 36.2 36.8 33.8 41.8 42.3 40.1 41.2 39.5 48.3 30.5 28.6 37.7 47.8 50.3 38.9 31.4 33.5 14.3 Below Lower Poverty Line 24.0 25.1 20.0 31.1 30.0 35.5 19.4 19.5 18.8 24.4 26.9 16.6 20.3 20.6 19.3 17.9 17.9 18.0 32.0 34.2 24.4 24.7 27.8 0.0 % distribution of SSNP beneficiary HHs (8 major SSNPs) by CBN poverty status, HIES 2010 Programme Name HIES Sample Household Beneficiaries below UPL Frequency % Beneficiaries below LPL Frequency % Old Age Allowance Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women General Relief Activities 558 255 45.7 155 27.8 238 110 46.2 60 25.2 265 108 40.8 62 23.4 Agriculture Rehabilitation Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) Gratuitous Relief (GR)Non-cash Stipend for Primary Students Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend 546 148 26.4 78 13.9 122 53 43.4 27 22.1 494 246 49.8 151 30.6 599 306 51.6 201 33.6 260 73 28.1 42 16.2 21 Poverty and receipt of SSNP benefit % distribution of HHs below UPL receiving SSNP benefit (HIES, 2010) 34.3 National 29.2 Sylhet 41.1 Rangpur Rajshahi 19.7 46.3 Khulna Dhaka Chittagong Barisal 30.4 31.7 44.2 22 Are these non-poor households borderline poor? Different poverty lines and per capita monthly expenditure of SSNP beneficiary households (HIES 2010) (Tk.) Per capita expenditure of SSNP beneficiary HHs Lowest LPL (Khulna Rural) Highest LPL (Ctg Urban) Lowest UPL (Sylhet Rural) Highest UPL (Dhaka SMA) 1997 1192 1495 1311 2038 23 Are these non-poor households borderline poor? Per capita expenditure of SSNP beneficiary HHs Per capita expenditure of poor (UPL) Rural Urban 1064 1133 1056 1246 1458 1200 1997 1931 2573 Per capita expenditure of poor HHs and SSN beneficiary HHs Per capita expenditure of poor (LPL) All 24 Poverty status of SSNP beneficiaries with and without SSNP benefit amount Over 60% beneficiaries received ≤ Tk.100 from their respective SSNP in a month; 33% received between Tk.100 and Tk.300, and only 4% received between Tk. 301 and Tk.500. What happens if the amount is deducted from the HH income? 42.6% 40.5% 26.6% 20.4% Benefit amount included in income Poverty Status Below UPL Benefit amount deducted from income Poverty Status Below LPL If SSNP benefit is deducted from the income of the beneficiary households, poverty rate increases by only 2 percentage points 25 Poverty Status of beneficiary household (without the benefit amount) by shifted Upper poverty line Upper Poverty Line Shifted 72.0% 76.7% 66.2% 59.3% 50.7% 10% above 20% above 30% above 40% above 50% above % of Poor HH 26 % of Benefit Received by Beneficiary Households 49.0% 51.0% 16.4% 18.4% 6.8% Income Decile 1 All Programmes 6.7% Income Decile 10 Combining Lowest 4 deciles Excluding the Stipend Programmes 27 % of food expenditure in consumption expenditure • 79% of all households spend more than half of their consumption expenditure in food. % HH spending more than half of its consumption expenditure in food 92.2 • Rate is highest (92.2%) in lowest income decile. • Rate is lowest (44.7%) in top income decile. 78.8 44.7 • Distribution by consumption expenditure deciles provide similar result. Income Decile 1 Income Decile 10 All HH 28 % of food expenditure in consumption expenditure by different type of Household % HHs spending more than half of its consumption expenditure in food consumption 87.2 95.2 96.0 78.8 All HH SSNP Beneficiary HH Below UPL HH Below LPL 29 Targeting errors in certain SSNPs using programme specific eligibility criteria (HIES 2010) Programmes & Criteria 1 Old age allowance: Minimum age criteria (male 65 years, female 62 years) Annual Income of beneficiary (less than Taka 3000) Beneficiary is from a landless household Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP More than one beneficiary from the same Household 2 Allowance for the Widowed Deserted and Destitute Female is a Widow/ Deserted by Husband /Destitute Annual income <12000 Tk. Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 3 General Relief Activities Household Affected by Natural Disaster Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) Landless/Less than 10 decimal of land Note: Certain indicators are not available in the HIES Error Found (%) 35.2 and 35.6 99.5 19.4 12.4 1.8 25.2 32.4 6.3 84.9 76.6 50.2 30 Targeting errors in certain SSNPs using programme specific eligibility criteria (HIES 2010) Programmes & Criteria Error Found (%) 4 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) programme Landless/Having Less than .15 acres of land 36.9 Female Household head 84.4 Household affected by Natural Calamity 87.7 Multiple Beneficiary from same Household 0.8 Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 4.9 5 Gratuitous Relief-Non-cash Household Affected by Natural Disaster 88.9 Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk. 99.6 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 69.4 Landless/Have Less than 10 decimal of land 45.6 6 Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary Female Students Total monthly Household income<2500 Taka 95.4 Landless/Owning less than .50 acres 44.6 Note: Certain indicators are not available in the HIES 31 On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan The Sixth Five Year Plan of the country states coverage issues, targeting beneficiaries, leakages, and disparity in regional distribution etc as the key challenges of implementing SSNPs are. Some of the highlights are as follows: While coverage is relatively low, a significant number of HHs gain access to multiple SSNPs. A quarter of HHs were receiving transfers from more than one SSNP. Over 11% households were participating in at least two of the three programs – VGD, FFE and FFW. Coverage in urban areas remains low. 27% VGD beneficiaries are not poor. 11% participants of PESP meet none of the eligibility criteria; almost none of the beneficiaries meet at least three criteria. Almost 47% PESP beneficiaries are non-poor and incorrectly included in program. All HHs within less-poor Upazila are denied assistance, including those with very high food insecurity. 32 On leakage and targeting error in SSNP in the Sixth Five Year Plan…..contd. Leakage in FFW program is 26%. Leakage in female stipend programs 10%-12%. About 20%-40% budgetary allocations for female secondary stipend program do not reach beneficiaries. Leakages show a strong correlation with number of intermediaries in the transfer process. HIES 2005 showed regional disparity in distribution of households receiving social protection benefits. Barisal and Rajshahi divisions, with the highest incidence of poverty, did not have the correspondingly higher number of social protection beneficiaries. In contrast, Sylhet Division, with the second lowest poverty incidence had the highest proportion of social protection recipients. 33 Concluding observations Coverage & budgetary allocation in SSNP sector – increasing every year Every 4th HH is covered by SSNP (HIES 2010) The declining trend of poverty over the years at a rate of 1.7% justifies Government’s spending on SSNP. No concrete evidence that government’s spending on SSNP is being received by the poor and hence poverty is declining. Large number of beneficiary HHs of major SSNPs are not poor at least in terms of official measures of poverty. However, it is also not true that the benefits are being captured by the elites since most beneficiaries are from the lower income deciles. False prioritization (high inclusion error) exists. 34 Concluding observations The number of targeting criteria for the existing SSNPs are huge. Some are obsolete and sometimes impractical. (e.g., annual income <Tk.3,000 for Old Age Allowance is quite absurd). Such criteria should be revisited. The term ‘insolvent’ is used as an eligibility criterion for many SSNPs. However, it is not properly defined in any of the document. A working definition for this term is necessary. The term ‘poverty’ is used for most SSNP as an eligibility criterion. However, government's definition of poverty does not seem to match with that of implementation authority. `poverty’ criterion should be administrable. 35 We welcome your valuable comments and suggestions for the improvement of the study Thank You 36 Backup Slides 37 HIES (2010) and SSNP Programmes Old Age Allowance Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled Maternity allowance programme for the Poor Lactating Mothers Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Cash General Relief Activities Allowances for Distressed Cultural Personalities/Activists Food Assistance in CTG-Hill Tracts Area Stipend for Disabled Students Grants for the Schools of disabled Cash for Work Housing Support Agriculture Rehabilitation Open Market Sales (OMS) Beneficiaries (Nationally) 2475000 Beneficiaries in the HIES 2010 558 920000 238 286000 32 88000 4 150000 8000 8000000 500000 1000 714000 (Man Month) 19000 12000 3810000 (Man Month) 100000 2500000 13800000 (Man Month) 16 14 54 265 0 14 9 0 16 5 546 6 38 HIES (2010) and SSNP Programmes Beneficiaries (Nationally) Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) Test Relief (TR) Food Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash Food For Work (FFW) 100 days Employment Scheme/ Employment Generation Programme for the Hardcore Poor Stipend for Primary Students School Feeding Programme Stipend for Dropout Students Stipend and Access Increase for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students (including Proposed Secondary Education Stipend Project) Maternal Health Voucher Allowance Rural Employment Opportunity for Public Asset Char Livelihood Programmes Rural Employment and Rural Maintenance Programme Total (Beneficiary Households) 8833000 12222000 (Man Month) 3905000 (Man Month) 8000000 (Man Month) 3810000 (Man Month) Beneficiaries in the HIES 2010 10 122 132 494 4 4200000 20 7800000 315000 350000 599 6 34 3600000 260 180000 5 25000 2 55000 9 46000 5 --- 2989 39 Status of poor HHS getting SSNP benefit (HIES 2010) 37.7 34.2 % HHs below UPL received SSNP benefit % HHs below LPL received SSNP benefit 40 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Old Age Allowance Targeting/Eligibility Criteria Inclusion Criteria (Essential) Age >65 years (Male) Age >62 years (Female) Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk. Beneficiary from a Landless HH Beneficiary is Physically Infirm Beneficiary is handicapped Exclusion Criteria Beneficiary is a Government Service Holder Beneficiary is a Pension Recipient Beneficiary is a VGD Card Holder Women Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP More than one beneficiary from the same Household Beneficiary is a Day laborer/Maidservant/Vagrant ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES No. Beneficiaries included in the HIES-2010 No. of beneficiary not % of Error satisfying the criteria 276 292 558 558 - 97 104 555 108 - 35.2 35.6 99.5 19.4 - 558 558 558 0 69 10 0.0 12.4 1.8 - - 41 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Widow Allowance Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. No. of Beneficiaries beneficiary included in the not satisfying HIES-2010 the criteria Inclusion Criteria (Essential) Female is a Widow/Husband’s 238 Deserted/Distitute Annual income <12,000 Tk 238 Exclusion Criteria Beneficiary is a Government Service Holder Beneficiary is a Pension Recipient Beneficiary is a VGD Card Holder 238 Women Beneficiary of other Public/NGO SSNP 238 ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES % of Error 60 25.2 77 32.4 - - - - 0 0.0 15 6.3 42 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Targeting Efficiency of General Relief Activities Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiary No. of household beneficiary not included in the satisfying the HIES-2010 criteria % of Error Household Affected by Natural Disaster 265 225 84.9 Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) 265 203 76.6 Landless/Less than 10 decimal of land 265 133 50.2 43 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) Targeting/Eligibility/Exclusion Criteria No. Beneficiary No. of household beneficiary not included in the satisfying the HIES-2010 criteria Inclusion Criteria (Essential) The recipient is a Day laborer 122 Landless/Having Less than 0.15 acres 122 of land Female Household head 122 Household affected by Natural 122 Calamity Exclusion Criteria Multiple Beneficiary from same 122 Household Beneficiary of other Public/NGO 122 SSNP ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES % of Error - - 45 36.9 103 84.4 107 87.7 1 0.8 6 4.9 44 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Gratuitous Relief-Non-cash Targeting/Eligibility Criteria Household Affected by Natural Disaster Annual income of Beneficiary <3000 Tk. Household below Lower poverty Line (CBN) Landless/Have Less than 10 decimal of land No. Beneficiary No. of household beneficiary not % of included in the satisfying the Error HIES-2010 criteria 494 439 88.9 494 492 99.6 494 343 69.4 494 225 45.6 45 Performance assessment using programme specific variables Targeting Efficiency of Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary/ Female Student Targeting/Eligibility Criteria No. Beneficiary No. of household beneficiary not included in the satisfying the HIES-2010 criteria Total monthly Household 260 income<2500 Taka Landless/Owning less than .50 acres 260 Household headed by person with 260 disabilities or incapable to earn HH Head is a Wage Laborer or 260 Rickshaw Puller ** Certain indicators are not available in the HIES % of Error 248 95.4 116 44.6 46 Poverty and SSNP beneficiary HHs (except 2 stipend) Percentage distribution of the SSNP beneficiary HHs (except 2 stipend programmes) by poverty status in the CBN method, HIES 2010 Divisions Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Total (All SSNPs) % of beneficiary HHS below UPL 43.6 36.8 41.8 42.9 31.9 47.8 33.1 40.5 40.5 % of beneficiary HHS below LPL 26.4 18.1 24.4 21.1 18.5 32.2 25.8 23.4 24.0 47 Reported reasons for exclusion Distribution of the reported reasons for not being included in major Public SSNPs Cause of Not being Included in a Frequency Percent Programme Beneficiary Recipients (individual) 3,508 6.3 Not Applicable (HH members age <5 years) 5,630 10.1 Did not know about the programme 2,045 3.7 Not eligible for the programme 29,939 53.9 Eligible for the programme but did not apply 1,853 3.3 Due to budget constraints 1,769 3.2 Selection was not proper 9,975 17.9 No programme in this area 861 1.5 Total 55,580 100 Cumulative Percent 6.3 16.4 20.1 74.0 77.3 80.5 98.5 100 48 Multiple beneficiary recipient Status of multiple beneficiary recipient Households in HIES 2010 No. of benefits received Frequency by HHs Percent Cumulative Percent 1 2,555 85.5 85.5 2 366 12.2 97.7 3 55 1.8 99.6 4 9 0.3 99.9 5 4 0.1 100 Total Beneficiary HHs 2,989 100 49 Key Research questions by Broad Scopes The 12 month long research project will make efforts to answer the following research questions at the end of the study: Scope 1: Targeting of Social Safety Nets in Bangladesh 1. What are the main characteristics of the targeting process (targeting mechanism) of selected public safety net programmes (SSNP) in Bangladesh? 2. How effective is the targeting performance (outreach to the poorest) of the major public SSNPs? 3. What targeting mechanisms are adopted in the large NGO safety net programmes of the country? Scope 2: Inclusion and Exclusion Errors 1. Who are the excluded households from public SSNPs (in relation to poverty, location, gender and age of head, dependency ratio, and data permitting, food security and nutrition status)? 2. What are public SSNPs that the food-insecure households access? 3. What are the inclusion errors of public safety net programmes? 4. What are the factors accounting for errors in different regions, programs and targeting methodologies? 50 Key Research questions by Broad Scopes Scope 3: Addressing Errors 1. What are the challenges faced by major SSNPs to address inclusion and exclusion errors in Bangladesh and in the South Asia region? 2. What are the good practices in certain SSNPs that can be used to address inclusion and exclusion errors in Bangladesh and in the South Asia region for major safety net programmes? 3. What are complementarities between geographical, household-level and community-based targeting of SSNPs? 4. What potential roles can information technology play to improve targeting outcomes? 5. What roles can grievances and accountability measures play to improve targeting outcomes given existing administrative and political capacities? 6. What are the effective/successful mechanisms adopted by NGO programs that can be adjusted/scaled-up to government-run programmes? 51 Key Research questions by Broad Scopes Scope 4: Effective Targeting in Bangladesh 1. What are the options for improving the effectiveness of targeting, in particular decreasing exclusion errors, in Bangladesh? 2. What are the institutional issues of coordination between programmes at the local level and line ministries at the central level? 3. What is the relevance and feasibility of a nationwide targeting/identification system of SSNPs, with a potential road map? 52 Seri al Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey 1 2 3 Programmes Old Age Allowance Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled Programme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Reason for inclusion/exclusion Regular cash transfer included Number of total beneficiaries is large Lists of beneficiaries by Ward available at the UP Level Waiting list is also available Regular cash transfer included Number of total beneficiaries is large list of beneficiaries available at the UP Level Regular cash transfer Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level Small programme but important because it benefits a particular vulnerable group Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level Number of beneficiaries is low, will require specific selection of respondent in the selection area (if beneficiaries exist), on average at least one beneficiary will exist in a village but this may not be the reality, not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary 4 Maternity allowance programme for the Poor Lactating Mothers Fixed duration (2 years cycle) cash transfer 5 Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters Regular cash transfer excluded Although number of total beneficiaries is moderate, they are not distributed equally in the PSU Does not address poor people in general 6 Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters Regular cash transfer excluded Small programme Does not address poor people in general 7 Gratuitous Relief (GR)Cash & Food Relief Activities included Number of total beneficiaries is large Easy to find with random selection at the field level Relief Activities Included but maybe dropped if beneficiaries cannot be identified during survey Number of total beneficiaries is large 8 General Relief Activities 53 Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey Sl 9 10 Programmes Allowances for Distressed Cultural Personalities/Activists Food Assistance in CTGHill Tracts Area Programme Type Cash Transfer Included/excluded in the proposed survey excluded Food Security excluded 11 Stipend for Disabled Students Stipend (regular) Included but maybe dropped if sufficient sample not available at PSU level 12 Grants for the Schools of disabled Institutional grant excluded 13 Food/Cash for Work Works Programme included 14 Housing Support Relief Activities & Disaster excluded Management 15 Agriculture Rehabilitation Seasonal included 16 Open Market Sales (OMS) Food transfer at lower price excluded Reason for inclusion/exclusion Number of total beneficiaries is very small Will require purposive selection if list exist Area Specific Programme Random Selection of areas may prove to be a ‘not so good’ option Will need specific sampling or selection of area Number of Beneficiaries is small, may require purposive sample selection, random selection of respondents in the sampling area may exclude the beneficiaries within the selected area Household interviewing may not be a option to collect information Large programme Easy to find with random selection at the field level, List of beneficiaries exist Small programme Beneficiaries are not distributed equally in the PSU Area specific programme Large programme Easy to find with random selection at the field level But it does not include the poor/vulnerable people Although OMS is a large programme, it has no fixed beneficiary Identification of beneficiary is not possible during survey 54 Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey Sl Programmes Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) Vulnerable Group Feeding 18 (VGF) 19 Test Relief (TR) Food 100 days Employment Scheme/ Employment 20 Generation Programme for the Hardcore Poor 17 Programme Type Included/excluded in the proposed survey Food Security included Food Security included Relief Activities excluded Works Programme included 21 Stipend for Primary Students Stipend (regular) included Tiffin for school students excluded Stipend for Dropout Students 23 (may be considered for Stipend (regular) selection) excluded Stipend and Access Increase for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students 24 Stipend (regular) (including Proposed Secondary Education Stipend Project) included 22 School Feeding Programme Reason for inclusion/exclusion Number of total beneficiaries is large Easy to find with random selection at the field level Number of total beneficiaries is large Easy to find with random selection at the field level Programme does not benefit individuals directly Number of total beneficiaries is large Easy to find with random selection at the field level Number of total beneficiaries is large Easy to find with random selection at the field level Area specific programme Will require purposive area selection Poverty is not a selection criteria for the beneficiary (all the students in a school receive the benefit irrespective of poverty status) Small programme; Number of beneficiaries is very smaller than other stipend programmes (primary and secondary level stipend programmes), not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary, will require purposive section of beneficiary Number of total beneficiaries is large easy to find with random selection at the field level 55 Matrix: Safety Net programmes considered for the proposed survey Sl Programmes Programme Type Single time benefit Included/excluded in the proposed survey 25 Maternal Health Voucher Allowance 26 Rural Employment Works Programme excluded Opportunity for Public Asset excluded 27 Char Livelihood Seasonal excluded Rural Employment and 28 Rural Maintenance Programme (RERMP) Included but maybe dropped Works Programme if sufficient sample not available at PSU level Reason for inclusion/exclusion Very small programme will require specific selection of respondent in the selection area (if beneficiaries exist), not possible to select specific area for this kind of beneficiary Small and area specific programme Area Specific Programme Random Selection of areas may prove to be a ‘not so good’ option, will need specific area sampling. Small programme but very much poverty focused 56 Average duration of SSNP benefit receiving for major regular SSNPs Average Duration (month) Average Duration (year) 45.6 3.8 44.6 3.7 25.4 2.1 25 2.1 Honorarium for Freedom Fighters* 53.5 4.5 Allowances for the Financially Insolvent Disabled 44.6 3.7 Programme Name Old age allowance Allowance for Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women Stipend for Secondary and Higher Secondary Level Students Stipend for Primary Students *Aggregating the ‘Honorarium for Injured Freedom Fighters’ and ‘Honorarium for Insolvent Freedom Fighters’ together Note: The HIES 2010 survey ended in January 2011. These duration estimates are made as of January 2011. The HIES did not ask the households whether any member received SSNP benefit in the lifetime. It only 57 focused the current situation. The proposed survey may consider this issue. HH size and residence (rural-urban) HH Size National Rural Urban All size 24.4 30.3 14.0 1-2 26.6 33.6 12.9 3-4 20.6 27.3 10.2 5-6 28.1 32.9 18.8 7-8 28.6 32.8 19.6 9-10 20.3 24.5 12.7 11+ 22.7 25.0 17.1 58 Age of HH head & residence (rural-urban) Age of Head of HH National Rural Urban All Age 24.4 30.3 14.0 <=29 17.4 21.4 9.6 30-39 22.1 28.3 11.5 40-49 25.4 32.2 14.7 50-59 24.6 30.4 15.0 60+ 30.0 35.0 18.3 59 Gender, Marital Status, religion and residence (rural-urban) HHs receiving SSNP (%) N=2989 HH Characteristics National Rural Urban National 24.4 30.3 14.0 Gender of Household Head Male 24.3 30.3 13.8 Female 25.3 30.2 14.9 Marital Status (of household Head) Married 23.5 29.2 13.6 Unmarried 27.3 34.3 14.6 Widowed/divorced 33.0 39.8 18.0 Religion Muslim 24.0 29.6 14.2 Non-Muslim 27.2 34.8 12.2 60 Beneficiary HHs by land ownership and residence HHs receiving SSNP (%) N=2,989 Size of Land Holding (acres) National Rural Urban All size 24.4 30.3 14.0 No Land 17.9 33.1 9.7 <0.05 19.2 26.5 11.9 0.05-0.49 25.7 31.7 15.0 0.50-1.49 29.7 31.8 18.8 1.50-2.49 32.1 31.6 35.6 2.50-7.49 29.2 29.8 25.0 7.50+ 20.6 20.7 20.0 61 Beneficiary HHs by land ownership categories Programme Name Stipend for Primary Students Old age Allowance Landless 15 Decimals and 15> Decimals but < 50 Decimals Less (not landless) 50 Decimals and more N 4.1 49.5 18.7 27.6 630 6.7 59.2 17.4 16.7 568 Agriculture Rehabilitation 1.4 20.5 20.0 58.0 560 Gratuitous Relief 6.0 64.2 14.3 15.5 503 General Relief Activities 11.9 59.7 17.3 11.2 278 Stipend for Secondary Female Student 3.2 34.5 16.6 45.7 278 Widowed Allowance 8.0 60.1 16.8 15.1 238 VGF 12.2 59.4 10.6 17.9 123 62 Chi-Square scores for categories of different demographic characteristics It is evident that there is statistically significant difference in the safety net receiving in the urban and rural areas at 1% level of significance. The different household size is also significant at 1% level of significance for safety net receiving as well as the land ownership categories and age of the head of the household. However, there is no statistically significant difference in the safety net receiving by the sex of the household head at 5% level of significance which is also true for religious identity of the household. It is also found that there is statistically significant difference in the poverty status (both UPL and LPL) in urban and rural areas at 1% level of significance. The different household size is also significant at 1% level of significance for poverty status (both UPL and LPL) as well as the land ownership categories and age of the head of the household. There is no statistically significant difference in the poverty status (for LPL) by the sex of the household head at 5% level of significance which is also true for religious identity of the household. 63 Chi-Square scores for categories of different demographic characteristics Demographic Characteristics Chi-Square Scores SSNP beneficiary Poverty Status status based on UPL Poverty Status based on LPL Urban-Rural 405.9 82.4 151.0 Household Size 87.6 415.6 327.9 Land Ownership 103.4 316.1 225.3 Age of HH Head 83.6 117.9 78.6 Sex of HH Head 0.9 25.1 6.6 Marital Status of HH Head 50.5 6.3 10.9 3. 390 3.7 5.7 Religious Status of HH 64 SSNP beneficiaries and their literacy status Programmes Stipend for Primary Students Old age Allowance Agriculture Rehabilitation Gratuitous Relief General Relief Activities Stipend for Secondary Female Student Widowed Allowance VGF Literacy Status Literate Illiterate 54.3 45.7 13.6 86.4 44.1 55.9 28.6 71.4 33.1 66.9 99.6 0.4 13.9 86.1 28.5 71.5 N 630 568 560 503 278 278 238 123 65 Housing and Sanitation Condition of SSNP beneficiary HHs Material of Wall F % Brick/cement 368 12.3 C.I. Sheet/wood Mud brick Hemp/hay/bamboo Other Total 1210 622 767 22 2989 40.5 20.8 25.7 0.7 100 Latrine type Sanitary Pacca latrine (water seal) Pacca latrine (pit) Kacha latrine (perm) Kacha latrine (temp) Other Total Material of Roof Concrete (brick/cement/rod) C.I. Sheet/wood Mud/tally/wood Hemp/hay/bamboo Other Total Frequency 342 377 490 894 719 167 2989 F % 97 3.2 2505 112 235 40 2989 83.8 3.7 7.9 1.3 100 Percent 11.4 12.6 16.4 29.9 24.1 5.6 100 66 HH electrification status of SSNP beneficiaries Electricity & Cell Phone SSNP beneficiary HHs with electricity in their house F % 1164 38.9 Beneficiary HHs have cell phone 1525 51.1 N 2989 100.0 Nationally 55.26% of the HHs has electricity connections (Rural 42.49%, Urban 90.10% 67 Incidence of poverty (HCR) by CBN method by division (HIES 2010 and 2005) Poverty Line and Division Total 2010 Rural Urban Using the Upper Poverty Line National 31.5 35.2 Barisal 39.4 39.2 Chittagong 26.2 31.0 Dhaka 30.5 38.8 Khulna 32.1 31.0 Rajshahi (Former) 35.7 36.6 Rajshahi (New) 29.8 30.0 Rangpur 46.2 47.2 Sylhet 28.1 30.5 21.3 39.9 11.8 18.0 35.8 30.7 29.0 37.0 15.0 Total 2005 Rural Urban 40.0 52.0 34.0 32.0 45.7 51.2 33.8 43.8 54.1 36.0 39.0 46.5 52.3 36.1 28.4 40.4 27.8 20.2 43.2 45.2 18.6 68 Per Capita monthly expenditure of the poor by residence and divisions (Taka) Per Capita expenditure of the Poor Division Using Lower Poverty Line Using Upper Poverty Line Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban National 1064.9 1056.0 1133.4 1245.8 1200.0 1457.7 Barisal 1044.7 1031.4 1119.9 1176.0 1140.9 1348.8 Chittagong 1174.5 1169.8 1231.9 1381.8 1361.7 1540.6 Dhaka 1071.3 1060.2 1174.8 1290.9 1192.6 1610.2 Khulna 1018.1 984.1 1124.3 1212.6 1170.0 1337.5 Rajshahi 1041.1 1034.8 1074.3 1205.2 1186.8 1280.7 Rangpur 1027.1 1019.7 1109.3 1150.2 1140.8 1247.8 Sylhet 1049.4 1051.0 1013.2 1117.0 1102.6 1276.9 2010 69 % distribution of beneficiary and non-beneficiary HHs by consumption expenditure deciles and residence (rural-urban) Expenditure Deciles Lower 5% Decile-1 Decile-2 Decile-3 Decile-4 Decile-5 Decile-6 Decile-7 Decile-8 Decile-9 Decile-10 Top 5% Total/Deciles N SSN beneficiary households (%) Non-beneficiary households (%) National 8.8 15.0 12.4 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.5 9.1 7.7 6.5 4.7 1.9 100.0 2,989 National 3.8 8.4 9.2 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.7 6.0 100.0 9,251 Rural 9.6 16.6 12.7 12.0 11.8 11.5 10.9 9.2 6.9 5.2 3.3 1.1 100.0 2,374 Urban 5.9 8.8 11.1 8.3 10.7 10.7 9.3 8.9 10.7 11.4 10.1 5.0 100.0 615 Rural 5.0 10.9 10.8 11.0 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.0 10.1 8.8 6.8 3.2 100.0 5,466 Urban 1.9 4.8 7.0 7.6 7.6 8.3 8.9 10.7 11.7 14.6 18.8 10.0 100.0 3,785 % distribution of beneficiary HHs of major SSNPs by consumption expenditure deciles T5% 0.9 0.4 1.1 3.5 0.0 0.6 1.7 D10 1.4 1.7 3.8 8.6 0.0 1.2 71 5.0 6.0 15.0 3.8 8.7 11.5 Only programmes with more than 100 beneficiary households in the HIES 2010 considered. 14.2 D9 6.1 2.9 5.7 9.2 0.8 10.4 13.9 4.3 D8 4.7 5.9 7.9 11.7 6.6 10.5 10.0 5.9 D7 7.9 6.3 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.9 8.1 6.7 D6 10.4 8.8 10.2 12.3 11.5 14.5 10.8 9.5 D5 10.6 9.7 15.1 12.1 10.7 12.2 7.3 12.4 D4 10.0 8.0 10.2 11.4 16.4 15.2 5.8 13.0 D3 7.5 13.0 12.5 9.7 10.7 7.9 Secondary and Higher Secondary Stipend 3.5 14.6 D2 12.2 17.7 10.2 7.7 18.0 2.2 15.8 D1 28.3 26.1 14.7 6.8 20.3 16.8 Stipend for Primary Students 1.2 Gratuitous Relief (GR)- Non-cash 14.8 Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) 16.8 Agriculture Rehabilitation 10.2 General Relief Activities 1.8 Allowances for the Widowed, Deserted and Destitute Women 6.6 Old Age Allowance 9.1 Major Safety Net Programmes (HIES 2010) L5% Household Income Deciles (HIES 2010) 71 Estimating the Monthly benefit amount received by SSNP beneficiaries • Beneficiaries of Safety Net Programmes with Regular Monthly Allowance (in taka) are assumed to receive the fixed amount every month. • For the benefits that are given in kind, the money value is estimated. • In order to convert the kind benefits to equivalent money value, the per kg value of kind (rice, wheat etc.) is estimated from HIES 2010 data. • Benefit that are received once in a year, is divided by 12 to find out the average amount of benefit received in a month. 72