50 years of change and a model
for the future
Cathy Parker and Simon Quin
@placemanagement
#HSUK2020
Good morning and welcome
Welcome particularly to representatives
of our partner towns:
• Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena,
Barnsley, Bristol (St George),
Congleton, Holmfirth, Market Rasen,
Morley and Wrexham
Welcome also to our international
webinar participants
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Australia
Canada
Cyprus
Germany
Greece
Italy
Malaysia
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Netherlands
Portugal
Poland
Sweden
United Kingdom
…and Isle of Man
https://mmu.adobeconnect.com/uk2020mmu/
Agenda
09.30 – 10.30
10.30 – 11.00
11.00 – 13.00
@placemanagement
50 years of high street change
& a model for the future
Break
Repositioning, reinventing,
rebranding & restructuring
your high street
#HSUK2020
Parliament June 2014
The challenge….and some background
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Change in retailer location 2000-11
Out of town
up 50
million
square feet
Town centre
down 46
million
square feet
100,000
!
Loss won’t be uniform
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Department for Transport 2011
Department for Transport 2011
Change in Tesco store format
47% of
stores over
25,000 sq ft
900
800
700
600
500
400
66% of
stores
under
5000 sq ft
300
200
100
0
1
1972
Dawson J 2004
2
1995
Generating 70% of retail sales
29000
retailers
100
retailers
1971
2004
Durable goods
Bulky goods
Food
Percentage of newly
built retail space in
town centres:
1971-2008
Actual Town Centre
Town Centre plus 300 metres
Planning Statistical Release 4, DCLG, 2009
Online
retailing
Online share of home retailing 2014
Italy
Poland
Spain
France
Netherlands
Europe av
Sweden
Germany
US
UK
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Growth Forecasts
Online retailing
16% pa
£52 bn in 2015
M-retailing
62% this year
£7.92 bn
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Town centre share of retail spend
2000
2011
2014
49.4%
42.2%
39.8%
Parliament 2014
The response
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vital & Viable Town Centres
Planning Policy Guidance/Statements
Business Improvement Districts
High Street Britain 2015
The Portas Review
Understanding High Street Performance
Future High Streets Forum
Nature of TCM schemes
IPM 2009
Focus of TCM schemes
Influencing
strategy
Forming
strategy
Service
delivery
PWC 2008
The 4 As
Attractions
Accessibility
Action
Amenity
The 4 As
Making
things
happen
What the
centre has to
offer
Getting into,
out of, and
around centre
Experience
within centre
Spatial
Macro
Meso
factors
The research
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
10000 studies found
2345 after clean up
923 ‘retail’ highlighted
253 town centre/high st
173 studies reviewed
@placemanagement
#HSUK2020
Review parameters
1. Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual)
2. Methodological evidence
3. Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary)
4. Dependent variable (retail area performance measure)
5. Independent variables (factor affecting performance)
6. Significance (major findings and statistical significance if available)
7. Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.)
8. Author, date, publisher
9. Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.)
10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of
place, e.g. city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood
centre, district centre, suburban centre)
Time in minutes per review
Retail Restructuring
and Consumer Choice
1: Long-term local
changes in consumer
behaviour:
Portsmouth, 19802002
38
mins
US nationwide trends in
metropolitan retail trade: A
perspective of the mid 1980s
Most of the studies were empirical
Other
Historical
Explanatory
Empirical
Conceptual
Most published in the last 10 years
Mostly from UK and Europe
Focus of data
City Centre
Town Centre
High Street
Neighbourhood Centre
District Centre
Suburban Centre
Out of town Centre
166 factors influence performance
And if 166 factors were not enough…..
• Partner towns identified 50 additional
factors that influence the High Street
• 33 additional studies reviewed
• 201 factors finally identified, but:
–how much influence does each one
have?
–what should towns be focussing on?
The Delphi Technique
The Delphi method is unique in its method of
eliciting and refining group judgement as it is
based on the notion that a group of experts is
better than one expert when exact knowledge is
not available.
(Paliwoda, 1983).
22 Experts participated
Practitioner
Academic
Major retailer
Manchester Metropolitan University
Shopping centres owner
University of Leicester
Urban consultant
University of Dundee
Retail letting agency
University of Ulster
Urban policy group
Oxford University
Trade association
University of Manchester
Professional body
University of Liverpool
University of Portsmouth
University of Loughborough
Consensus reached on
1. How much influence each factor has on
the vitality and viability of the High
Street
2. How much control a location has over
the factor
You can’t control everything
Spatial
Macro
Meso
Micro
The model
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
4
Amount of influence location has over factor
Child-minding centre
Opening hours
3.5
Deliveries
Leadership
3
2.5
2
Political climate
Methods of classification
1.5
Spatial structure
Location
1
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Amount of influence factor has over vitality and viability
4.5
5
Influence relationships
• Weak inverse relationship between influence
town has over factor and influence factor has
over vitality and viability
• As a rule of thumb the more a factor
influences vitality and viability, the less you
can do about it
• Towns need to focus on factors they can
influence, and where that influence will
impact on vitality and viability
Amount of influence location has over factor
4
Child-minding centre
Opening hours
Not worth it!
3.5
Get on with it!
Deliveries
Leadership
3
2.5
2
Political climate
Methods of classification
Forget it!
1.5
Live with it!
Spatial structure
Location
1
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Amount of influence factor has over vitality and viability
5
Top 25 priorities
3.900
APPEARANCE
NECESSITIES
PLACE MARKETING
PLACE ASSURANCE
How much town can influence factor
3.700
3.500
ENTERTAINMENT AND
LEISURE
RECREATIONAL SPACE
3.300
EXPERIENCE
NETWORKS &
PARTNERSHIPS
WITH COUNCIL
ACTIVITY HOURS
MANAGEMENT
MERCHANDISE
Anchor stores
WALKING
DIVERSITY
ADAPTABILITY
VISION&STRATEGY
RETAILERS
Chain vs independent
Safety/crime
3.100
LIVEABLE
ATTRACTIVENESS
Comparison/convenience
Barriers to Entry
2.900
ACCESSIBLE
2.700
3.300
3.500
3.700
3.900
4.100
4.300
How much factor influences vitality and viability
4.500
4.700
Forecasting the future of your high street
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
High Street UK 2020
Spatial factors
Location
Distance to centre
Size/Type of town
Spatial structure
Towns can’t do anything about
these factors!
High Street UK 2020
Macro factors
Economy
Consumer trends
Business rates
Ageing population
Technology
Retail planning policy
Towns can’t change these
on their own
High Street UK 2020
Meso factors
Barriers to entry
Competition (other towns)
Comparison/Convenience
Out of town shopping
Tenant variety
Vacancy rates
Towns interact with
these/have some
Influence
High Street UK 2020
Micro factors
Cleanliness
Visual appearance
Networking
Opening Hours
Attractions
Centre Marketing
Amenities
Car-parking
Entertainment
Leadership
RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns
Spatial
Macro
Meso
Micro
Partnerships
have 63.89 %
of potential
influence
How much control do our HSUK2020
towns have?
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Delphi
Average
“..lively, diverse,
intense cities
contain the
seeds of their
own
regeneration…”
How do you manage change?
Repositioning
Reinventing
Dr Steve Millington
John Pal
Rebranding
Dr Mihalis Kavaratzis
Restructuring
Professor Deborah
Peel