CHAPTER 9 The Capital Asset Pricing Model Investments, 8th edition Bodie, Kane and Marcus Slides by Susan Hine McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) • It is the equilibrium model that underlies all modern financial theory • Derived using principles of diversification with simplified assumptions • Markowitz, Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin are researchers credited with its development 9-2 Assumptions • Individual investors are price takers • Single-period investment horizon – Can be extended to: All agents plan for the same time horizon (and information changes between “planning periods” are very predictable) • Investments are limited to traded financial assets • No taxes and transaction costs – Like liquidity costs 9-3 Assumptions Continued • Information is costless and available to all investors • Investors are rational mean-variance optimizers • There are homogeneous expectations 9-4 Resulting Equilibrium Conditions • All investors will hold the same portfolio for risky assets – market portfolio • Market portfolio contains all securities and the proportion of each security is its market value as a percentage of total market value – This is a solution to problem of maximizing Sharpe Ratio. 9-5 Resulting Equilibrium Conditions Continued • Risk premium on the market depends on the average risk aversion of all market participants • Risk premium on an individual security is a function of its covariance with the market 9-6 Figure 9.1 The Efficient Frontier and the Capital Market Line 9-7 Market Risk Premium •The risk premium on the market portfolio will be proportional to its risk and the degree of risk aversion of the average investor. – (see CAPM-presentation2.pdf for more detail) 9-8 Return and Risk For Individual Securities • The risk premium on individual securities is a function of the individual security’s contribution to the risk of the market portfolio • An individual security’s risk premium is a function of the covariance of returns with the assets that make up the market portfolio 9-9 Using GE Text Example • Covariance of GE return with the market portfolio: CovwGE rGE , rM wGE CovrGE , rM • Therefore, the reward-to-risk ratio for investments in GE would be: GE' s contrib. to RiskP remium wGE ErGE rf E rM rf GE' s contrib. toVariance wGE CovrGE , rM M2 9-10 Using GE Text Example Continued • Reward-to-risk ratio for investment in market portfolio: Mkt RP E rM rf MktVar M2 • Reward-to-risk ratios of GE and the market portfolio: E rGE rf E rM rf CovrGE , rM M2 • And the risk premium for GE: E rGE rf CovrGE , rM ErM rf M2 9-11 Figure 9.2 The Security Market Line 9-12 CAPM APPLICATIONS • Buy or sell stocks (SML) – This first one we talked about it last class, and we cover it in the next slides • IRR (Internal rate of return) cut-offs, or hurdle-rate • Note that any allocation of resources imply a opportunity cost problem – Invest $100 on some project or in the market? • The CAPM gives a required expected rate of return for such projects. – Example: Company invests $100 million on project with beta of .5 and the market (expected) return is 14% and T-bill rate is 6%. The implied required return is 6%+.5(8%)=10%. – Project should generate (at least) $10 million profits. 9-13 Figure 9.3 The SML and a PositiveAlpha Stock • Alpha for a stock is the difference between expected return in excess of the fair expected return as predicted by the CAPM • Fair expected return always plot on the SML • In the picture to the left we have a positive alpha stock (17-15.6)>0 9-14 In class exercise (SML use) • Stock XYZ has expected return of 12% and beta is 1. Stock ABC has expected return of 13% and beta is 1.5. Market expected return is 11% and risk-free rate is 5%. – Which stock is a better buy (based on CAPM)? – Compute alpha for each stock. Plot the SML and indicate alpha for each stock 9-15 In class exercise (CAPM as hurdle rate) • You have a project opportunity for which you know it to have a beta of 1.3. You also know that the risk-free rate is 8% and expected return on the market portfolio is 16%. • • Would you invest in this project? In other words, what is the required internal rate of return (hurdle rate) implied by the CAPM for this project. If the expected return is 19% would you invest in this project? 9-16 The Index Model and Realized Returns • To move from expected to realized returns— use the index model in excess return form: Ri i i RM ei – Stock alpha is not the same alpha in the eq. above – The index model beta coefficient turns out to be the same beta as that of the CAPM expected return-beta relationship 9-17 Figure 9.4 Estimates of Individual Mutual Fund Alphas, 1972-1991 • There are “expost”, or after the fact, alphas • Ex-ante alpha, in equilibrium, is zero. 9-18 The CAPM and Reality • Is the condition of zero alphas for all stocks as implied by the CAPM met – Not perfect but one of the best available • Is the CAPM testable – Proxies must be used for the market portfolio • CAPM is still considered the best available description of security pricing and is widely accepted 9-19