Decision Support Tool for Strategic Fiscal Analysis
AggiE Challenge Project: Preventing Nuclear Terror
Industrial Engineering Students: Cameron Richardson, Jenny Flam, and Samridhi Bhandari and Nuclear Engineering Students: Michael Krutak, Sarah Camba, and Shane Seabolt
Advisor: Dr. Justin Yates
Objective
Decision Support Tool Process Map
To create a decision support tool to analyze the strength of existing
facilities that store nuclear assets. The tool will evaluate the current
overall security of the site then optimize the facility’s strength and
respective cost.
Methods
Research remains a continuous process through literature review and interviews with
subject matter experts. This semester’s focus was determining the relationships
between the risk factors and developing strength models for each subset of risk factor
variables. The strength models were created using a logistics equation that allowed for
an average nuclear facility to merit a strength of 80%. A prototype has been developed
using Visual Basic that evaluates the facility’s data based off of the 80% standard.
Station #1
X Personnel
Station #2
X Personnel
Station #N
X Personnel
Paperwork
Station
This schematic represents the components of strength within a nuclear
facility that our decision support tool analyzes. The zone diagram
includes the interior perimeter detection of the facility, the delay
system of the access points, and the locations of concentrated security
personnel.
Each component is integrated into our model
as an individual variable that affects the
Zone 1 Interior Detection
appropriate strength equation. The values of
Coverage Circumference
these variables vary according to the details
of the facility system that is currently in place
Zone 2 Perimeter
at the nuclear site.
Office
Access Point –
X Personnel
External Personnel X Personnel
Risk Factor Variable Input Tables
Support Structures (shown below)
Access Points
Guard Towers (shown below)
Personnel
•
•
•
CAS
Detection Systems
Delay Systems
Material Assets
Guard Tower
Support Structures Input Table (Zone 1)
Facility
80% Standard
Mock Facility # 1
Mock Facility # 2
Mock Facility # 3
Mock Facility # 4
Mock Facility # 5
Mock Facility # 6
Facility
100 % Standard
Mock Facility # 1
Mock Facility # 2
Mock Facility # 3
Mock Facility # 4
Mock Facility # 5
Mock Facility # 6
Central Alarm
Station
2
Area (ft )
# of Access Points # of Guard Towers # of Central Alarm Stations
262784707.8
2
9
0
500500000
3
15
0
349850000
2
10
0
168950000
3
8
0
215300000
2
18
0
4305500000
6
11
0
262784707.8
2
9
0
Coverage Length
Zone 2 Exterior Detection
Coverage Circumference
Zone 1 Perimeter
Coverage Width
Due to variance in size and shape of nuclear storage facilities a circular zone model is used that will
evaluate every facility in the same way. The model uses the facility size and automatically fits each
facility’s data to the circular zone model. By allowing all of the facilities to conform to this circular
model a uniform set of strength algorithms could be developed. These algorithms would then
evaluate each facility in the same way regardless of differences in facility layout.
Facility
Mock Facility # 1
Mock Facility # 2
Mock Facility # 3
Mock Facility # 4
Mock Facility # 5
Mock Facility # 6
Zone 2
Zone 1
Strength Rating
Zone 3
1 + 5𝑒 (𝑘𝑖 (2 ln 2+ln 5)(𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑙𝑖))
i = Personnel type
ki = Coefficient related to personnel type
Response Guards Strength:
Guard Response Time Strength:
2
−1
200 cos (𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 × cos(5 𝜋))
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝜋
300
2
−1
200 tan (𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 × tan 5 𝜋))
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝜋
2
Radius that Guards Patrol Around Guard Tower:
𝑅𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑇𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 = −900 ∗
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
−
𝜋
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 − 𝑍𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 − 𝑍𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝜋
+
𝜋
2
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑇𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠
2𝜋
1
−
3
2
∗ 104
The algorithms displayed to the
right are all mathematical
relationships that stem from
geometric conditions in the
facility schematic. The facility
schematic is based on the circular
zone model assumptions in order
to simplify the entire DST model.
SUPPORT STRUCTURES
SECURITY SYSTEMS
Number of Guard Towers Strength:
Coverage Strength for Detection System Strength:
2
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠 ∗ cos ∗ 𝜋
200
5
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
∗ cos −1 (
)
𝜋
9
𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ∗ 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 ∗ 4
tan−1 {
}
𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑖𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
0.5 ∗ 𝜋
Location of Guard Towers Strength:
200
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
∗ cos −1 {
𝜋
𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑛 𝐺𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑙 − 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑛 𝐺𝑇 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤𝑎𝑙𝑙
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠
1
9∗
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 − 𝑍𝑜𝑛𝑒 1 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
−
𝜋
𝜋
Distance between the Guard Towers:
2
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 10 𝑒
𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠−𝑆𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑡𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑠
−0.001∗
12
Access Point
Strength Calculations
Personnel Number Total
55.414 82.153 68.783
95.616 82.528 89.072
66.697 67.721 67.209
92.044 77.825 84.934
55.970 88.601 72.285
80.000 80.000 80.000
Detection System
Strength Calculations
Coverage Failure Rate Total
74.999
85.000 77.999
94.617
85.000 91.732
66.623
85.000 72.136
89.352
85.000 88.047
40.015
85.000 53.510
80.002
85.000 81.501
Strength Algorithm Output Table (Zone 1)
Personnel
Guard Tower
Strength Calculations
Strength Calculations
Observational
Patroling
Response Total
Number Angular Distance Radial Distance
80.000
66.873
76.158 73.212 65.556
76.015
81.463
90.000
89.442
87.445 88.755 77.688
98.567
96.720
60.000
76.886
73.326 72.085 82.285
42.062
65.274
80.000
73.276
88.642 80.767 57.586
102.929
99.071
0.000
71.334
66.552 55.154 75.344
64.855
96.940
80.000
80.000
80.000 80.000 80.000
81.468
81.233
Risk Factor Strengths for Mock Facility Data
In the circular zone model each zone is distinguished by different factors. The description of each
zone is as follows:
Zone 1 (Blue)
Zone 1 is designated as the area between the facility’s outermost perimeter and the perimeter of
Zone 2. Zone 1 excludes any facility buildings and is completely exposed to the open sky. Zone 1
includes guard towers and does not house any nuclear materials.
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔(𝑖) =
73.333
−1
200 tan (𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐺𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠 × tan( 200 𝜋))
𝑆𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 =
𝜋
2
100
These equations make up only a portion of the Risk Factor
Strength Algorithms. The majority of the equations displayed
here are used to evaluate the strength of the Zone 1 risk factor
inputs. The displayed algorithms use the variable inputs from
the Input Tables to evaluate the Zone 1 strength as displayed
in the Output Table below.
Strength Algorithm Outputs
Zone Classification Diagram
Zone 3 (Red)
Zone 3 is made up of all buildings or interior rooms that
house nuclear material. Zone 3 is the only zone that may
contain nuclear assets.
Zone 2
Field of View – X◦
Patrolling Guards Strength:
Personnel in Access Point Strength:
CAS
Coverage Perimeter
Guard Tower Input Table (Zone 1)
Angular Guard Tower Location Information
Radial Guard Tower Location Information
Greatest Distance Between Smallest Distance Between Greatest Distance of Guard Smallest Distance of Guard
2 Adjacent Guard Towers
2 Adjacent Guard Towers
Tower From Exterior Wall
Tower From Exterior Wall
1750
1750
3700
3700
2700
1750
5000
2500
900
850
1050
800
5000
2000
2500
1100
900
1000
1200
1100
3000
1500
2000
1100
2500
1790
2250
1150
Zone 2 (Yellow)
Zone 2 is designated by the sum of all building areas that do not
house nuclear materials (excluding restricted areas). Zone 2
includes all central alarm stations and is where the majority of
non-security personnel operate.
Zone 1
Zone 3
PERSONNEL
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
Access Point Strength
Detection Systems Strength
50
Personnel Strength
40
Guard Tower Strength
Total
74.345
90.991
63.207
86.529
79.046
80.900
Delay System
Strength Calculations
Delay Systems
75.000
100.000
64.000
85.000
60.000
80.000
Total Zone Strength
73.868
92.110
67.727
85.055
63.999
80.480
Total Zone 1 Strength for Mock Facilities
Strength Rating
•
•
•
•
Risk Factor Strength Algorithms
Facility Schematic
60
50
40
Delay Systems Strength
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1
2
3
4
Mock Facility Number
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
Mock Facility Number
5
6