Decision Support Tool for Strategic Fiscal Analysis AggiE Challenge Project: Preventing Nuclear Terror Industrial Engineering Students: Cameron Richardson, Jenny Flam, and Samridhi Bhandari and Nuclear Engineering Students: Michael Krutak, Sarah Camba, and Shane Seabolt Advisor: Dr. Justin Yates Objective Decision Support Tool Process Map To create a decision support tool to analyze the strength of existing facilities that store nuclear assets. The tool will evaluate the current overall security of the site then optimize the facility’s strength and respective cost. Methods Research remains a continuous process through literature review and interviews with subject matter experts. This semester’s focus was determining the relationships between the risk factors and developing strength models for each subset of risk factor variables. The strength models were created using a logistics equation that allowed for an average nuclear facility to merit a strength of 80%. A prototype has been developed using Visual Basic that evaluates the facility’s data based off of the 80% standard. Station #1 X Personnel Station #2 X Personnel Station #N X Personnel Paperwork Station This schematic represents the components of strength within a nuclear facility that our decision support tool analyzes. The zone diagram includes the interior perimeter detection of the facility, the delay system of the access points, and the locations of concentrated security personnel. Each component is integrated into our model as an individual variable that affects the Zone 1 Interior Detection appropriate strength equation. The values of Coverage Circumference these variables vary according to the details of the facility system that is currently in place Zone 2 Perimeter at the nuclear site. Office Access Point – X Personnel External Personnel X Personnel Risk Factor Variable Input Tables Support Structures (shown below) Access Points Guard Towers (shown below) Personnel • • • CAS Detection Systems Delay Systems Material Assets Guard Tower Support Structures Input Table (Zone 1) Facility 80% Standard Mock Facility # 1 Mock Facility # 2 Mock Facility # 3 Mock Facility # 4 Mock Facility # 5 Mock Facility # 6 Facility 100 % Standard Mock Facility # 1 Mock Facility # 2 Mock Facility # 3 Mock Facility # 4 Mock Facility # 5 Mock Facility # 6 Central Alarm Station 2 Area (ft ) # of Access Points # of Guard Towers # of Central Alarm Stations 262784707.8 2 9 0 500500000 3 15 0 349850000 2 10 0 168950000 3 8 0 215300000 2 18 0 4305500000 6 11 0 262784707.8 2 9 0 Coverage Length Zone 2 Exterior Detection Coverage Circumference Zone 1 Perimeter Coverage Width Due to variance in size and shape of nuclear storage facilities a circular zone model is used that will evaluate every facility in the same way. The model uses the facility size and automatically fits each facility’s data to the circular zone model. By allowing all of the facilities to conform to this circular model a uniform set of strength algorithms could be developed. These algorithms would then evaluate each facility in the same way regardless of differences in facility layout. Facility Mock Facility # 1 Mock Facility # 2 Mock Facility # 3 Mock Facility # 4 Mock Facility # 5 Mock Facility # 6 Zone 2 Zone 1 Strength Rating Zone 3 1 + 5π (ππ (2 ln 2+ln 5)(ππ’ππππ ππ ππππ ππππππ)) i = Personnel type ki = Coefficient related to personnel type Response Guards Strength: Guard Response Time Strength: 2 −1 200 cos (ππ’ππππ ππ π ππ ππππ π πΊπ’ππππ × cos(5 π)) ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = π 300 2 −1 200 tan (ππ’ππππ ππ π ππ ππππ π πΊπ’ππππ × tan 5 π)) ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = π 2 Radius that Guards Patrol Around Guard Tower: π ππππ’π ππ πΊπ’πππ πππ€ππ π‘βππ‘ πΊπ’πππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = −900 ∗ πππ‘ππ ππππ − π πππ‘ππ ππππ − ππππ 1 ππππ πππ‘ππ ππππ − ππππ 1 ππππ π + π 2 ππ’ππππ ππ πΊπ’πππ πππ€πππ 2π 1 − 3 2 ∗ 104 The algorithms displayed to the right are all mathematical relationships that stem from geometric conditions in the facility schematic. The facility schematic is based on the circular zone model assumptions in order to simplify the entire DST model. SUPPORT STRUCTURES SECURITY SYSTEMS Number of Guard Towers Strength: Coverage Strength for Detection System Strength: 2 ππ’ππππ ππ ππ’πππ π‘ππ€πππ ∗ cos ∗ π 200 5 ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = ∗ cos −1 ( ) π 9 πππ£πππππ πππππ‘β ππ πππ‘πππ‘ππ ∗ ππ’ππππ ππ πππ‘πππ‘πππ ∗ 4 tan−1 { } ππ’π ππ πππππ’πππππππππ ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = 0.5 ∗ π Location of Guard Towers Strength: 200 ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = ∗ cos −1 { π πππ₯ πππ π‘ππππ πππ‘π πΊπ πππ π€πππ − πππ πππ π‘ππππ πππ‘π πΊπ πππ π€πππ ππ’ππππ ππ ππ’πππ π‘ππ€πππ 1 9∗ πππ‘ππ ππππ πππ‘ππ ππππ − ππππ 1 ππππ − π π Distance between the Guard Towers: 2 ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = 10 π πΊππππ‘ππ π‘ πππ π‘ππππ πππ‘π€πππ ππ’πππ π‘ππ€πππ −πππππππ π‘ πππ π‘ππππ πππ‘π€πππ ππ’πππ π‘ππ€πππ −0.001∗ 12 Access Point Strength Calculations Personnel Number Total 55.414 82.153 68.783 95.616 82.528 89.072 66.697 67.721 67.209 92.044 77.825 84.934 55.970 88.601 72.285 80.000 80.000 80.000 Detection System Strength Calculations Coverage Failure Rate Total 74.999 85.000 77.999 94.617 85.000 91.732 66.623 85.000 72.136 89.352 85.000 88.047 40.015 85.000 53.510 80.002 85.000 81.501 Strength Algorithm Output Table (Zone 1) Personnel Guard Tower Strength Calculations Strength Calculations Observational Patroling Response Total Number Angular Distance Radial Distance 80.000 66.873 76.158 73.212 65.556 76.015 81.463 90.000 89.442 87.445 88.755 77.688 98.567 96.720 60.000 76.886 73.326 72.085 82.285 42.062 65.274 80.000 73.276 88.642 80.767 57.586 102.929 99.071 0.000 71.334 66.552 55.154 75.344 64.855 96.940 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 81.468 81.233 Risk Factor Strengths for Mock Facility Data In the circular zone model each zone is distinguished by different factors. The description of each zone is as follows: Zone 1 (Blue) Zone 1 is designated as the area between the facility’s outermost perimeter and the perimeter of Zone 2. Zone 1 excludes any facility buildings and is completely exposed to the open sky. Zone 1 includes guard towers and does not house any nuclear materials. ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ(π) = 73.333 −1 200 tan (ππ’ππππ ππ πππ‘πππππππ πΊπ’ππππ × tan( 200 π)) ππ‘πππππ‘β π ππ‘πππ = π 2 100 These equations make up only a portion of the Risk Factor Strength Algorithms. The majority of the equations displayed here are used to evaluate the strength of the Zone 1 risk factor inputs. The displayed algorithms use the variable inputs from the Input Tables to evaluate the Zone 1 strength as displayed in the Output Table below. Strength Algorithm Outputs Zone Classification Diagram Zone 3 (Red) Zone 3 is made up of all buildings or interior rooms that house nuclear material. Zone 3 is the only zone that may contain nuclear assets. Zone 2 Field of View – Xβ¦ Patrolling Guards Strength: Personnel in Access Point Strength: CAS Coverage Perimeter Guard Tower Input Table (Zone 1) Angular Guard Tower Location Information Radial Guard Tower Location Information Greatest Distance Between Smallest Distance Between Greatest Distance of Guard Smallest Distance of Guard 2 Adjacent Guard Towers 2 Adjacent Guard Towers Tower From Exterior Wall Tower From Exterior Wall 1750 1750 3700 3700 2700 1750 5000 2500 900 850 1050 800 5000 2000 2500 1100 900 1000 1200 1100 3000 1500 2000 1100 2500 1790 2250 1150 Zone 2 (Yellow) Zone 2 is designated by the sum of all building areas that do not house nuclear materials (excluding restricted areas). Zone 2 includes all central alarm stations and is where the majority of non-security personnel operate. Zone 1 Zone 3 PERSONNEL 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 Access Point Strength Detection Systems Strength 50 Personnel Strength 40 Guard Tower Strength Total 74.345 90.991 63.207 86.529 79.046 80.900 Delay System Strength Calculations Delay Systems 75.000 100.000 64.000 85.000 60.000 80.000 Total Zone Strength 73.868 92.110 67.727 85.055 63.999 80.480 Total Zone 1 Strength for Mock Facilities Strength Rating • • • • Risk Factor Strength Algorithms Facility Schematic 60 50 40 Delay Systems Strength 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1 2 3 4 Mock Facility Number 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 Mock Facility Number 5 6